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Red Sox Place Liam Hendriks On 15-Day IL

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March 28: Despite the season-opening IL placement, Hendriks is not facing a severe injury, Jen McCaffrey of The Athletic writes. He’s already been examined by Dr. Keith Meister, who performed his Tommy John surgery, and received a cortisone injection to help alleviate some inflammation and discomfort stemming from a compressed nerve. There’s no structural damage in Hendriks’ elbow. He’ll be shut down from throwing for three to five days but expects to resume throwing during next week’s series against the Orioles.

March 27: The Red Sox announced a slate of transactions to finalize their Opening Day roster, including a surprise placement of righty Liam Hendriks on the 15-day injured list due to elbow inflammation. Fellow right-hander Cooper Criswell, who had appeared ticketed for Triple-A Worcester, will instead break camp with the big league club.

Boston also selected the contracts of lefty Sean Newcomb and top prospect Kristian Campbell. Both have formally made the Opening Day roster. Lefties Chris Murphy and Zach Penrod were placed on the 60-day injured list to open spots. Murphy is recovering from UCL surgery performed last spring. Penrod was diagnosed with a left elbow sprain earlier in camp.

Additionally, the Red Sox placed Masataka Yoshida on the 10-day IL as he continues building back up from offseason shoulder surgery. Righties Brayan Bello (shoulder strain), Kutter Crawford (patellar tendinopathy) and Lucas Giolito (hamstring strain) were all placed on the 15-day IL, as expected.

Hendriks, who turned 36 last month, is entering the second season of a two-year, $10MM deal. The Red Sox signed him knowing that he’d miss most of all of the 2024 season while recovering from Tommy John surgery. The expectation early in camp was that he and offseason signee Aroldis Chapman could compete for ninth-inning work. The tide changed quickly. Chapman fanned 14 of the 30 batters he faced and held opponents to two runs in 7 1/3 innings. Hendriks allowed seven runs on 14 hits in just 6 1/3 frames. He didn’t walk anyone but also only whiffed four of the 32 hitters he faced.

The Red Sox haven’t yet provided a timetable for when Hendriks might return to the mound. For now, there’s no indication that he’s dealing with a long-term injury. Presumably, manager Alex Cora will have more information regarding his potential timetable when he meets with the media later today.

Red Sox Notes: Third Base, Giolito, Murphy

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The Red Sox have been dealing with some tension around the infield this spring, as their recent acquisition of Alex Bregman has led to questions about where Bregman—and, by extension, Rafael Devers—will play in 2024. Bregman is the superior defender at third base, but Devers to publicly emphasized that his position is third base. Meanwhile, team officials have refused to declare either Devers or Bregman the starting third baseman to this point. Today, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow spoke to reporters (including MassLive’s Sean McAdam) about the situation, and downplayed the severity of any clubhouse issues that could arise over the team’s infield alignment.

“I think having really good players that are talking about positions is not a terrible place to be in,” Breslow said, as relayed by McAdam. “…my obligation is to put the best team on the field, on both offense and defense that I can possibly can… So we’ll continue to have those conversations.”

Breslow’s comments seem to clearly indicate that the club has no intention of handing him the third base job out of respect for his tenure at the position. Given that the club seems to be staying the course of determining its infield alignment based on performance this spring, Breslow noted that he has confidence in the ability of manager Alex Cora to handle any concerns within the clubhouse resulting from the ongoing battle for third base.

“But part of the reason we as an organization feel that Alex is the perfect manager for the Red Sox is his ability to command a clubhouse, his ability to communicate with players across different cultures and ethnicities.” Breslow said, as relayed by McAdam. “He’s such a great communicator. …any time you have a talent roster, there are players who are going to want more playing time or fill different roles. You rely on the manager to be able to have those conversations and get everybody moving in the same direction.”

Should Bregman ultimately be installed at the hot corner with Devers moving to DH, Cora’s ability to communicate and command the clubhouse may be put to the test. Devers has long maintained his desire to stick at third base and has clearly expressed a very strong preference to remain at the hot corner all throughout his career, and Cora himself has even acknowledged that Devers was promised that he’d be the club’s third baseman long term when he signed a 10-year extension with the club prior to the 2023 season. Of course, that pact came under former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom rather than Breslow, opening the door to the tensions the Red Sox are facing today.

Elsewhere on the roster, the Red Sox are dealing with a number of injury woes impacting their rotation. Kutter Crawford, Brayan Bello, and Lucas Giolito are all behind at this point in camp due to various ailments, but Christopher Smith of MassLive relayed a positive update on the status of Giolito. While Giolito has been a bit slow out of the gate this year as he continues to recover from the internal brace procedure he underwent last spring, he noted earlier this winter that he expects to be ready for Opening Day. Per Smith, a major step in the right-hander’s process of preparing for the start of the season will take place tomorrow, when he’s scheduled to throw his first live batting practice since going under he knife last year.

Giolito’s status entering the season figures to take on outsized importance for the Red Sox given the fact that both Crawford and Bello are nursing injury situations of their own. Smith adds that Bello threw from 90 feet today as he battles back from a bout of shoulder soreness, and that his progression from here will be determined by a strength test later today. As for Crawford, the right-hander is still feeling discomfort due to his patellar tendon in long toss and bullpen sessions. It’s a worrying sign for the right-hander, who pitched through knee issues for much of the 2024 season. Those problems have lingered into the start of camp this year and appear to be putting Crawford’s availability for Opening Day in doubt.

In more pleasant injury news, Smith writes that southpaw Chris Murphy has resumed throwing bullpens after undergoing Tommy John surgery back in April. The southpaw isn’t expected to be a factor for the Red Sox in at least the early part of the year year, but Smith relays that Murphy hopes to pitch in the majors at some point in 2025 wouldn’t completely rule out a return in the first half of the season. For now, he’s taking things slowly with 10- and 15-pitch bullpen sessions, both of which featured exclusively fastballs.

A return late in the first half or even at some point in the second half would be a welcome development for the Red Sox, as the 26-year-old looked like an interesting piece during his rookie season back in 2023. The lefty appeared in 20 games for Boston as a multi-inning reliever, and while his 4.91 ERA in those 47 2/3 innings was fairly lackluster he still managed to open some eyes thanks to a solid 23.1% strikeout rate and a 3.70 FIP. Once he’s healthy, the southpaw could compete with players like Cooper Criswell and Josh Winckowski for a spot as a long man in the Red Sox bullpen this year.

Players Who Could Move To The 60-Day IL Once Spring Training Begins

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Most of the clubs in the league currently have a full 40-man roster, which means that just about every transaction requires a corresponding move these days. Some extra roster flexibility is on the way, however. The 60-day injured list goes away five days after the World Series but comes back when pitchers and catchers report to spring training.

Per R.J. Anderson of CBS Sports, most clubs have a report date of February 12th or 13th. The Cubs and Dodgers are a bit earlier than most, on the 9th and 11th, respectively. That’s due to the fact that those clubs are heading to Tokyo, with exhibition games in mid-March, followed by regular season games against each other on March 18th and 19th. All the other teams have Opening Day scheduled for March 27th.

It’s worth pointing out that the 60 days don’t start being counted until Opening Day. Although a team can transfer a player to the 60-day IL quite soon, they will likely only do so if they aren’t expecting the player back until end of May or later. A team also must have a full 40-man roster in order to move a player to the 60-day IL.

There are still plenty of free agents still out there, including big names like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, as well as Nick Pivetta, Andrew Heaney, David Robertson, Randal Grichuk, Kenley Jansen, Harrison Bader, Lance Lynn, Jose Quintana and many more. Perhaps the extra roster flexibility will spur some deals to come together in the next week or so. It could also increase the ability of some clubs to make waiver claims or small trades for players who have been designated for assignment.

Here are some players who are expected to miss some significant time and could find themselves transferred soon.

Angels: Robert Stephenson

Stephenson underwent a hybrid Tommy John surgery with internal brace in late April. Given the 14-plus months required to recovery from such a procedure, he’s not likely to be ready in the early parts of the 2025 season.

Astros: Cristian Javier, J.P. France, Bennett Sousa

Javier underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is targeting a return in the second half of 2025. France is recovering from shoulder surgery and hoping to return in July. Sousa’s timeline is less clear but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in April. Other possibilities include Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr., who are expected to start the season on the IL but returning in April or May still seems possible.

Athletics: Luis Medina, Ken Waldichuk

Medina underwent Tommy John surgery in August and Waldichuk in May. Medina might miss the entire season while Waldichuk is likely to miss a few months at least.

Blue Jays: Angel Bastardo, Alek Manoah

The Jays grabbed Bastardo from the Red Sox in the Rule 5 draft in December, even though he had Tommy John surgery in June. Manoah also had Tommy John around that time and is hoping to be back by August.

Braves: Joe Jiménez

Jimenez had knee surgery in November with a timeline of eight to twelve months, so he might miss the entire season. Spencer Strider and Ronald Acuña Jr. are also possibilities, though those will be more borderline. Strider had internal brace surgery in April, so returning in May is somewhat possible. Acuña is recovering from a torn ACL last year and it’s possible he’ll miss the first month or so of the season. Given how important both of those players are, Atlanta probably won’t put them on the 60-day IL unless it’s 100% certain that they can’t come back in the first 60 days of the season.

Brewers: Robert Gasser

Gasser had Tommy John surgery in June and will be looking at a late 2025 return even in a best-case scenario.

Diamondbacks: Kyle Nelson

Nelson’s timeline is unclear, but he underwent surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome in May and missed the remainder of the 2024 season.

Dodgers: Gavin Stone, Brusdar Graterol, River Ryan, Kyle Hurt, Emmet Sheehan

Stone underwent shoulder surgery in October that will cause him to miss the entire year. Graterol also underwent shoulder surgery and isn’t expected back until the second half of 2025. Each of Ryan, Hurt and Sheehan required Tommy John surgery in 2024: Ryan in August, Hurt in July and Sheehan in May.

Guardians: Sam Hentges, David Fry, Shane Bieber, Trevor Stephan

Hentges required shoulder surgery in September, with an expected recovery timeline of 12 to 14 months. Fry underwent UCL surgery in November with a more fluid timeline. He won’t be able to throw at all in 2025 but could be cleared for designated hitter action six to eight months from that surgery. Bieber is perhaps a borderline case, as he underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Given his importance, the Guards may not transfer him to the 60-day IL until it’s assured that he won’t be back in the first 60 days of the season. Stephan underwent Tommy John surgery in March and perhaps has a chance to avoid the 60-day IL, depending on his progression.

Mariners: Matt Brash, Jackson Kowar

Brash underwent Tommy John surgery in May. Given the typical 14-month recovery timeline from that procedure, he would be looking at a midsummer return. However, it was reported in November that he’s ahead of schedule and could be back by the end of April. That’s an optimistic timeline but the Mariners will probably hold off moving him to the 60-day IL until the door is closed to an early return. Kowar underwent Tommy John in March, so an early return in 2025 is possible for him, depending on how his recovery is going.

Marlins: Braxton Garrett, Eury Pérez

Garrett just underwent UCL surgery last month and is going to miss the entire 2025 season. Pérez underwent Tommy John surgery in April of last year and will miss at least part of the beginning of the 2025 campaign.

Mets: Christian Scott

Scott required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in September and will likely miss the entire 2025 season.

Nationals: Josiah Gray, Mason Thompson

Gray required a Tommy John surgery and internal brace hybrid procedure in July, meaning he’ll miss most or perhaps all of the 2025 season. Thompson required Tommy John surgery in March, so he has a better chance to make an early-season return if his recovery is going well.

Orioles: Kyle Bradish, Tyler Wells

Bradish and Wells each required UCL surgery in June, so they’re both slated to miss the first half of the upcoming campaign.

Padres: Joe Musgrove

Musgrove had Tommy John surgery in October and will therefore miss the entire 2025 season. However, the Padres only have 36 guys on their 40-man roster at the moment, so they’ll need to fill those spots before moving Musgrove to the 60-day IL.

Pirates: Dauri Moreta

Moreta required UCL surgery in March, so an early-season return is possible if his rehab is going well, though he could end up on the 60-day if the club goes easy with his ramp-up or he suffers any kind of setback.

Rangers: Josh Sborz

Sborz underwent shoulder surgery in November and is expected to miss the first two to three months of the upcoming season.

Rays: Nate Lavender, Ha-Seong Kim

The Rays took Lavender from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft, even though he had Tommy John in May and will miss the start of the season. Kim’s status is more up in the air after he had shoulder surgery in October. Various reports have suggested he could return anywhere from April to July. The Rays made a sizable investment in Kim, their largest ever for a position player, so they probably won’t shelve him until they get more clarity on his status.

Red Sox: Patrick Sandoval, Garrett Whitlock, Chris Murphy

Sandoval had internal brace surgery in June of last year and should miss the first half of the season. Whitlock had the same surgery in May, so he could have a bit of a better chance to return in the first 60 days of the season. Murphy underwent a fully Tommy John surgery in April and will certainly miss the beginning of the upcoming season. Another possibility is Lucas Giolito, who had internal brace surgery in March, though he expects to be ready by Opening Day.

Reds: Julian Aguiar, Brandon Williamson

Aguiar underwent Tommy John surgery in October and Williamson in September, so both are likely slated to miss the entire 2025 season.

Tigers: Sawyer Gipson-Long

Gipson-Long underwent internal brace surgery in April. On top of that, he underwent left hip labral repair surgery in July, with the club hoping to address both issues at the same time. It seems likely that he’ll miss some of the early 2025 schedule, but his IL placement will depend on how he’s been progressing.

White Sox: Jesse Scholtens

Scholtens underwent Tommy John surgery in early March. Whether he goes on the 60-day IL or not will depend on how he’s progressed since then and when the White Sox expect him back.

Yankees: Jonathan Loáisiga

Loáisiga underwent internal brace surgery in April, so he could potentially be back on the mound early in the 2025 season. It was reported in December that the Yankees are expecting him to be in the bullpen by late April or early May, so he’ll only end up on the 60-day IL if he suffers a bit of a setback.

Chris Murphy Undergoes Tommy John Surgery

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The Red Sox announced today that left-hander Chris Murphy underwent a successful reconstruction of the left ulnar collateral ligament, also known as Tommy John surgery. It was reported a few weeks ago that the lefty had damaged the ligament and he is already on the 60-day injured list.

Murphy, 26 in June, made his major league debut with the Sox last year. He tossed 47 2/3 innings over 20 appearances with an earned run average of 4.91, though better underlying numbers. His 23.1% strikeout rate, 8% walk rate and 44.7% ground ball rate were all pretty close to league average but his .321 batting average on balls in play and 67.2% strand rate were on the unlucky side. His 3.70 FIP and 3.88 SIERA were each more than a run better than his ERA.

That big league work was all out of the bullpen but he had been working as a starter in the minor leagues. With two remaining option years, he could have either continued working out of the big league bullpen or perhaps been sent to Triple-A for some rotation depth. The Sox didn’t need to make that decision once the ligament damage was discovered. Now that Murphy has gone under the knife, he will unfortunately have to miss the entire season and likely a decent chunk of 2025 as well.

If there’s one silver lining for Murphy, it’s that he will remain on the injured list all year, collecting big league pay and service time. He’ll look to get healthy and get his career back on track next year, likely around his 27th birthday.

For the Sox, this adds to a growing pile of injuries to their rotation options. Lucas Giolito will also miss the 2024 campaign after undergoing elbow surgery while Nick Pivetta recently landed on the IL due to a flexor strain. For now, the club has Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock in four rotation spots, though that group is fairly lacking in experience. None of those four hurlers have more than 265 career innings at the big league level nor have they ever hit 160 in an individual campaign.

The Sox are hoping Pivetta’s issue is mild but they will need to cover his rotation spot for a few turns regardless. Both Josh Winckowski and Chase Anderson made long relief appearances recently and could perhaps be stretch out fairly easily while Cooper Criswell and Naoyuki Uwasawa are the 40-man roster but currently on optional assignment.

Red Sox Select Joely Rodriguez, Naoyuki Uwasawa

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The Red Sox announced Thursday that they’ve selected the contracts of left-hander Joely Rodriguez and right-hander Naoyuki Uwasawa — the latter of whom was just acquired from the Rays yesterday. Rodriguez will head straight to the MLB roster, while Uwasawa has been optioned to extended spring training. Righty Liam Hendriks (recovering from Tommy John surgery) and southpaw Chris Murphy (UCL sprain) have been placed on the 60-day IL to create 40-man roster space. Boston also placed righty Bryan Mata (hamstring strain) on the 15-day IL and placed infielder Vaughn Grissom (hamstring strain) and utilityman Rob Refsnyder (broken toe) on the 10-day IL.

Rodriguez, 32, was with the Sox in 2023 but pitched just 11 innings due to oblique, shoulder and hip injuries that combined to result in three different stints on the injured list. He posted a 6.55 ERA in his short time on the mound, striking out 27.5% of his opponents against an 11.8% walk rate and 45.2% ground-ball rate. He re-signed with the Sox on a minor league deal and turned in a strong showing this spring, holding opponents to a pair of runs on nine hits and three walks with nine strikeouts in seven innings of relief. He also recorded a massive 61.9% ground-ball rate.

Looking beyond last year’s struggles, Rodriguez has a decent track record in recent years. From 2020-22, Rodriguez pitched 109 1/3 frames between the Rangers, Yankees and Mets, working to a 4.28 ERA with even more encouraging secondary marks. Rodriguez fanned 25.5% of his opponents in that time and induced grounders at a huge 55.7% clip. His 10.3% walk rate was still a couple ticks north of the league average, but the lefty offered an enticing blend of missed bats and grounders while excelling at keeping the ball in the park (0.58 HR/9). Metrics like FIP (3.14) and SIERA (3.51) were rather bullish on his work.

Uwasawa, 30, has a long track record of success in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball but inked a minor league pact with the Rays over the winter. He most recently tossed 170 innings with a 2.96 ERA in NPB, though that strong mark was accompanied by a lackluster 17.8% strikeout rate and sub-par velocity. Last September, MLBTR contributor Dai Takegami Podziewski noted that Uwasawa’s fastball velocity was averaging 90.8 mph during the 2023 NPB season. Uwasawa does boast a strong 7.5% walk rate, which dropped as low as 5.9% in 2023, but he’s generally viewed as a soft-tossing finesse pitcher.

It was a rocky spring for Uwasawa, who was torched for seven runs in two innings during his debut with the Rays. He had one more rough outing and a pair of solid appearances, and the Sox got a first-hand look at him as they were his opponent in two of his four official spring outings. Uwasawa finished up his Grapefruit League campaign with a grisly 13.03, thanks largely to that first meltdown, but his track record in Japan and low cost of acquisition make him a reasonable enough flier for a Red Sox club that is thin on pitching depth after trading Chris Sale and seeing Lucas Giolito and the aforementioned Murphy go down with UCL injuries.

Red Sox’ Chris Murphy Diagnosed With Ligament Damage In Elbow

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11:50am: The Red Sox fear a “high grade tear” in Murphy’s ulnar collateral ligament, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. He’s receiving additional testing and opinions.

8:51am: Red Sox left-hander Chris Murphy underwent an MRI yesterday after experiencing recent elbow discomfort, and that imaging revealed ligament damage in his pitching elbow, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. The Red Sox haven’t yet determined whether surgery will be the next step, though that’s the typical outcome for injuries of this nature. A treatment plan will be finalized in the coming days, per Speier.

The 25-year-old Murphy was slated to enter the season as one of the Sox’ top depth options in the rotation. He made his big league debut last season, tossing 47 2/3 frames with an unsightly 4.91 ERA but much better secondary marks. Murphy fanned a solid 23.1% of his opponents against an 8% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a 44.7% clip. All of those stats were right in line with or even slightly better than the league average. Metrics like FIP (3.70) and SIERA (3.88) painted a much more favorable picture of the rookie’s work than his base earned run average.

Boston is set to open the season with Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Kutter Crawford in a rotation that’s already lost top offseason signee Lucas Giolito for the season. Murphy, fellow lefty Brandon Walter and right-hander Cooper Criswell are all on the 40-man roster and were expected to be among the first names up should further injuries compromise the projected rotation. While it’s not yet clear he’ll miss the season, Murphy will at the very least no longer be an option in the early portion of the season.

Whether the injuries to Giolito and Murphy prompt the Red Sox to look for additional depth in the rotation remains to be seen, but it’s a rough development for any club to lose its No. 1 and No. 6 or 7 starters before the season even gets underway. The Sox have long been connected to lingering free agent lefty Jordan Montgomery, and others still on the market include Michael Lorenzen and Mike Clevinger. There’ll also surely be some names returning to the market in the coming days as veterans on minor league deals with other teams are informed that they’ve not made the cut with their current organization.

If Murphy ultimately requires surgery, he’ll be eligible to spend the season on the major league 60-day injured list, as he suffered the injury while in big league camp. He’d accrue a full year of service time and pay while undergoing surgery and rehabbing. He currently has just 81 days of MLB service time, giving the Sox six full seasons of control over him. Murphy won’t be arbitration-eligible until after the 2026 season and isn’t on track for free agency until the 2029-30 offseason.

Red Sox Promote Wilyer Abreu, Place Jarren Duran On Injured List

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3:35pm: The Red Sox have now made these moves official, recalling Abreu and placing Duran on the injured list. They also reinstated right-hander Tanner Houck from the IL and optioned lefty Chris Murphy.

10:37am: The Red Sox are planning to promote outfield prospect Wilyer Abreu for his Major League debut, as first reported by Augusto Cardenas. Julian McWilliams of the Boston Globe hears the same, reporting that Abreu will be called up to replace Jarren Duran, who’s headed to the injured list following this weekend’s toe injury.

Abreu, 24, was one of two prospects acquired in the trade sending catcher Christian Vazquez from Boston to Houston last summer. The Venezuelan-born outfielder has posted impressive numbers in Triple-A Worcester this season, slashing .274/.391/.539 with 22 homers, 11 doubles, a triple and eight stolen bases (in nine tries). Abreu has walked in an immense 16.3% of his plate appearances while striking out at a manageable 20.1% clip.

FanGraphs and MLB.com both currently rank Abreu 17th among Boston farmhands, while Baseball America tabs him 22nd. The 2023 season has seen a pronounced step forward in terms of power production for Abreu, despite garnering only average ratings on his power in most scouting reports. He’s done that while reducing his strikeout rate by six percentage points over last year’s levels, too, which creates some optimism that he could perhaps elevate his status over the generally projected fourth outfielder.

Abreu is regarded as a disciplined hitter at the plate who can be too selective at times. He runs well enough to handle all three outfield spots but posts impressive stolen-base totals more due to his baserunning acumen than standout raw speed. Abreu has spent more time in the corners than in center this year, but he has more than 1200 career innings in center and could certainly step in at the position for Duran.

As for the 26-year-old Duran, he suffered a toe injury when scaling the wall on a Gleyber Torres home run. He was slated to undergo an MRI to evaluate the extent of the injury, and it seems there was enough concern to at least require a 10-day absence.

The injury puts a halt to a breakout season for the former top prospect. Duran has appeared in 102 games for the Sox, slashing .295/.346/.482 with eight homers, 34 doubles, a pair of triples and 24 steals (in 26 tries). He’s dropped his strikeout rate for the third straight year, now sitting at 24.9% — still higher than average but nowhere close to the alarming 30.7% clip he posted in 2021-22. In doing so, he looks to have seized a long-term spot in the Boston outfield; even with some expected regression in his .381 average on balls in play, Duran’s plus speed, average power and penchant for making hard contact should allow him to remain an above-average offensive contributor. The Sox can control him for five more years beyond the current season.

Red Sox Select Matt Dermody

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June 8: Dermody’s contract has now been officially selected, per a club announcement, with Chris Murphy optioned in a corresponding move.

June 7: The Red Sox are calling up left-hander Matt Dermody to start tomorrow night’s matchup with the Guardians, tweets Ian Browne of MLB.com. Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe first noted that Dermody had a locker in the Boston clubhouse. He’s not on the 40-man roster, so the Sox will have to formally select his contract before the game.

Dermody signed a minor league deal with Boston over the winter. He’s worked primarily from the rotation with Triple-A Worcester, starting eight of nine appearances. While the southpaw’s 4.50 ERA isn’t eye-catching, he’s posted solid peripheral marks.

The 32-year-old has punched out just under a quarter of opposing hitters against a meager 4.7% walk rate. He has induced grounders at a decent 45.3% clip. A lofty .346 batting average on balls in play and middling 67.8% left-on-base rate have inflated his run prevention figure despite his other solid numbers.

Of course, Dermody isn’t a lock to carry over those decent rate stats against big league hitters. This will be his first MLB start. Dermody has only ever worked out of the bullpen at the big league level, with virtually all of that experience coming six years ago for the Blue Jays. He carries a 5.60 ERA with an 18.2% strikeout percentage in 27 1/3 MLB frames.

Dermody still has a pair of minor league options remaining. The Red Sox can send him back to Worcester at any point without exposing him to waivers. It’s possible this is just a spot start, although Boston has a rotation vacancy after losing Chris Sale to the injured list last week. The Red Sox turned to swingman Kutter Crawford today, but he was tagged for three runs in as many innings while taking the loss to Cleveland.

Boston already has an opening on the 40-man roster after designating Raimel Tapia for assignment on Monday. They’ll only need to create space on the 26-man active roster to accommodate Dermody’s promotion.

Red Sox Expected To Promote Chris Murphy

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The Red Sox are planning to recall Chris Murphy during their upcoming series with the Guardians, reports Chris Cotillo of MassLive (Twitter link). It’s not yet clear whether he’ll make a start or break in out of the bullpen but the Sox lost Chris Sale to the injured list last week.

In either case, Murphy is in position to make his major league debut. It’s a great birthday present for the left-hander, who turns 25 today. Murphy is already on the 40-man roster after the Sox added him to keep him out of last winter’s Rule 5 draft. They’ll only need to make an active roster move whenever he’s formally promoted.

A University of San Diego product, Murphy has spent the past few seasons in the middle ranks of the Boston farm system. Baseball America has slotted him between 12th and 15th among Sox prospects four years running. He checked in 13th at BA and 11th on Keith Law’s ranking at The Athletic last winter. Both outlets credit him with a solid four-pitch arsenal headlined by his changeup. BA and Law each suggest he has a back-of-the-rotation caliber repertoire but might be better suited for long relief thanks to inconsistent control.

Even a swing role would be strong value for a player who signed for $200K as a sixth round pick in 2019. Murphy has had a spotty showing through ten appearances with Triple-A Worcester this year. He’s allowed a 7.71 ERA in 39 2/3 innings. A .385 average on balls in play surely hasn’t helped matters, though he’s also walked nearly 13% of batters faced. He is coming off a scoreless three-inning outing last week in which he allowed only one baserunner with a trio of strikeouts.

Murphy is an upper minors pitcher who’s already on the 40-man roster and capable of covering multiple innings. He’s in his first of three option years and can bounce between Boston and Worcester without being placed on waivers. Even if his initial MLB stint is a spot start or relief appearance, he’s on the organizational radar as a depth option.

The Volatile Red Sox Rotation

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The Red Sox have been one of the more capricious teams in recent history. This millenium has seen them win the World Series four times but also finish fifth in the American League East five times. The past five seasons have seen them go from winning it all in 2018 to missing the playoffs in 2019, falling to last in 2020, back to the playoffs in 2021 but then back to the basement last year.

That mercurial nature seems to be embodied in this year’s rotation. There’s plenty of talent but also plenty of risk. It wouldn’t be a total shock to see this group be completely dominant or an utter disaster. Let’s take a look at the candidates and their respective error bars.

Chris Sale

From 2012 to 2018, Sale was one of the best pitchers in the league. He tossed 1,388 innings over that stretch with a 2.91 ERA, 30.2% strikeout rate, 5.4% walk rate and 42.7% ground ball rate. His 39.2 fWAR in that period was bested only by Clayton Kershaw and Max Scherzer.

Unfortunately, that’s starting to feel like ancient history now. Sale struggled in 2019 with a 4.40 ERA over 25 starts. That was the “juiced ball” season and his 19.5% HR/FB rate was a career high, so perhaps it wasn’t as bad as it seemed, but ERA estimators still pointed to him taking a step back from his previous work. The three subsequent seasons have been mostly lost to injuries, with Sale undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2020. He returned in 2021 and made nine starts that year, but then the injury bug came back the next season. A right rib stress fracture put him on the injured list to start the year, and then he was hit by a comebacker when he returned and suffered a left fifth finger fracture. While on the IL with that finger injury, he fractured his right wrist in a bicycle accident.

Some of those injuries are of the fluky variety and don’t necessarily point to any irreversible core issue. However, Sale will turn 34 years old in March and has pitched less than 50 major league innings in the past three years, including just 5 2/3 last year. It’s difficult to know what to expect from him after so little recent work, and even if he’s in good form, will he eventually hit some kind of wall? Either mandated by the club or just a physical limit?

James Paxton

Paxton is in a fairly similar situation to Sale, though his previous highs aren’t quite as high. From 2016 to 2019, he posted a 3.60 ERA over 568 innings. He struck out 28.5% of batters he faced while walking just 6.7% and got grounders at a 42.6% clip. His 15.1 fWAR in that period was 12th among all pitchers in the league. But various arm injuries have limited him to just six starts since then, with his last in April of 2021. He required Tommy John at that time and was on his way back last year but suffered a lat tear during his rehab.

The Sox could have locked him in for another two seasons by triggering a $26MM option but made the obvious choice to turn that down. Paxton then turned down a chance to return to free agency by triggering his $4MM player option for this year. Like Sale, he’s coming off three mostly lost seasons and will be 34 this year, but he’ll be almost two years removed from his last major league appearance once the season begins. Will he be able to get things back on track and, if so, for how long?

Corey Kluber

Kluber’s arc has some echoes of the two guys already mentioned in this piece, though with more optimistic developments recently. From 2014 to 2018, he made 160 starts with a 2.85 ERA, 28.5% strikeout rate, 5.2% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate. His 30.3 fWAR just nudged out Sale and trailed only Scherzer and Kershaw.

But after that, a forearm fracture and teres major muscle tear limited him to just eight starts over 2019 and 2020. He got back on track somewhat in 2021, as a shoulder strain sent him to the IL for about three months, but he still made 16 starts with a 3.83 ERA. He stayed healthy enough to take the ball 31 times last year, posting a 4.34 ERA. That came with excellent control as he walked just 3% of batters, but his strikeouts were down to a 20.2% clip.

Those past couple of seasons are encouraging but Kluber turns 37 in April. His fastball averaged 88.9 mph last year, well down from his 94-95 mph peak form. He seems like he has the ability to succeed despite that diminished stuff, but that will likely become more challenging over time, even if he does stay healthy.

Nick Pivetta

Compared to the three previous pitchers on this list, Pivetta is the picture of reliability. He hasn’t been to the injured list for a non-COVID reason during his time in the majors, which began in 2017.

However, that might be his best asset, as he hasn’t exactly wowed with the results. He has a 5.02 ERA for his career and registered a 4.56 mark last year. His 22.6% strikeout rate was slightly better than that of the average starter last year, but his 9.4% walk rate and 38.5% ground ball rate were both a few points worse. He’s not terribly exciting but there’s certainly value to that kind of steadiness, especially amid this erratic group.

Garrett Whitlock

Whitlock had a great season in 2021 after being plucked from the Yankees in the Rule 5 draft. He tossed 73 1/3 innings over 46 relief appearances with a 1.96 ERA, 27.2% strikeout rate, 5.7% walk rate and 49.7% ground ball rate. He began 2022 back in the bullpen but the Sox tried stretching him out midseason. He made nine starts before a hip issue sent him to the injured list in June. He returned in July but was kept in a relief role until the hip issue put him on the IL again in September. He underwent surgery for that hip at that time but is expected to be ready for spring.

The club plans on implementing him as a starter here in 2023, which will be an interesting experiment. The 120 2/3 innings he threw in the minors in 2018 are the most in a single season on his résumé, as he’s been in the 70-80 range since then. With just those nine big league starts to his name, can he suddenly jump to a full starter’s workload? And even if he can, will he be able to maintain the same quality of of work that he did in relief in 2021-22?

Tanner Houck

Houck is in a fairly similar boat to Whitlock, as there are intriguing results there but it’s tough to map out the best path forward. He has a 3.02 ERA in 146 innings for his career thus far, striking out 27.6% of batters faced, walking 8.7% and getting grounders at a 49.3% rate. That work has involved 20 starts and 33 relief appearances. The splits aren’t huge, as he has a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 2.68 out of the ’pen. He dealt with lingering back issues last year that sent him to the injured list in August and he ultimately underwent surgery in September.

The club has indicated they may stretch Houck out as a starter in camp but move him to the bullpen if the five guys ahead of him are all healthy. That still leaves a decent chance of him spending some time in the rotation this year. He made just four starts last year and hasn’t reached 120 innings in any of his professional seasons.

Brayan Bello/Kutter Crawford/Josh Winckowski

These three all have made their major league debuts but likely need more time to develop. Bello registered a 4.71 ERA last year, with Crawford at 5.47 and Winckowski at 5.89. They all have options and might be in the minors to start the year. But given the unstable nature of the arms ahead of them on the depth chart, there’s a chance they will be needed at some point.

Brandon Walter/Bryan Mata/Chris Murphy

These three are all on the 40-man but have yet to reach the majors. Walter and Murphy just got added in November to protect them from the Rule 5 draft. Walter has just nine Double-A starts and two at Triple-A, meaning he likely won’t be lined up for his debut in the immediate future. Murphy made 15 Triple-A starts last year but put up a 5.50 ERA in that time. Mata underwent Tommy John in April of 2021 and was able to return last year and toss 83 innings in the minors, but he has just five Triple-A starts to his name thus far. This group could be called upon if things really go south, but they will likely be behind the Bello/Crawford/Winckowski trio unless things shift as the season progresses.

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As mentioned off the top, there’s plenty of talent here but there are so many ways this could play out. Five years ago, Sale, Paxton and Kluber would have been a dominant front three but the odds of them all suddenly clicking into their previous ace levels are low. Whitlock and Houck have had tantalizing results but each is coming off a season ended by surgery and both are generally unproven as starters over any kind of meaningful stretch. The younger depth options could always take a step forward and seize a job but they probably can’t be counted on yet.

It seems the error bars are quite wide for the Sox going into 2023. Center field and shortstop will be manned by players with minimal experience at those positions in Adam Duvall and Enrique Hernández, respectively. Their first baseman will be Triston Casas, who has 27 MLB games to his name. Their left fielder will be Masataka Yoshida, attempting to make the transition from NPB to MLB. They’re hoping to get some kind of contribution from Adalberto Mondesi, who’s been limited to just 50 games over the past two years combined. There’s uncertainty all over the place, including the rotation. In a style that fits the organization, they could have a miracle season or it could all go horribly wrong.

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