MLBTR Chat Transcript
Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Giants Exploring Trade Market For Shortstops
The Giants have been exploring the trade market for a potential shortstop upgrade, reports Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle, who adds that the team’s recent signing of Tom Murphy to a two-year deal could lead to former top catching prospect Joey Bart being moved Some combination of Bart, young pitching and/or outfield talent could conceivably be used to add the desired help at shortstop.
With Brandon Crawford becoming a free agent for the first time in his career, top prospect Marco Luciano currently resides atop the Giants’ depth chart at shortstop. Casey Schmitt, who made his MLB debut this past season at age 24, is another option at the position, as is 26-year-old Tyler Fitzgerald, who also made his debut in 2023. The Giants have begun to use Fitzgerald more frequently at other positions in the minors, however.
Suffice it to say, it’s an inexperienced group. Luciano has the highest ceiling of the group, but the 22-year-old hit just .231/.333/.308 with 17 strikeouts in 45 plate appearances during last year’s MLB debut and struggled in Triple-A, too, where he slashed .309/.321/.418 with a 36% strikeout rate. Luciano only turned 22 in September, so some struggles at the top minor league level and especially in the big leagues aren’t exactly cause for full-scale alarm bells to sound.
That said, those struggles also suggest that Luciano could benefit from some further development time in Triple-A. Giants president Farhan Zaidi said last month that organization was hopeful Luciano could seize the role but also noted the importance of having some insurance. Considering Schmitt hit just .206/.255/.324 through 90 games in his own debut while Fitzgerald has just 34 MLB plate appearances, a more established option would be a sensible acquisition.
Slusser speculatively lists Ha-Seong Kim of the division-rival Padres and Milwaukee’s Willy Adames as options, though it’s not clear the Giants have had meaningful discussions on either. Both would be one-year stopgaps; Kim has a mutual option for the 2025 season, and Adames is entering his final year of arbitration.
Mutual options, it should be noted, are almost never exercised by both parties. Kim won’t have six years of MLB service even if/when he declines his end of the 2025 option, but MLBTR confirmed at the time of his signing that he’ll still be a free agent when the contract is up. Adames, meanwhile, is hardly a lock to be moved at all. Even as his free agency draws near, the Brewers are still planning to contend in 2024 and would likely only move him if it meant acquiring MLB-ready talent in return.
There are other options to consider. The Twins seem likely to trade Kyle Farmer this offseason, given their crowded infield mix. Zaidi is plenty familiar with Farmer, who was drafted by the Dodgers, where Zaidi previously served as general manager. The Reds, Guardians, Cardinals and Rays all have ample infield talent as well. Not all of those teams are in need of a catcher specifically, although including Bart (and perhaps others) is of course just one of many paths the Giants could take to addressing the issue.
The 27-year-old Bart was the No. 2 overall draft pick back in 2018. He’s appeared in parts of four big league seasons but posted an anemic .219/.288/.335 batting line with a 35.4% strikeout rate. Bart, who’ll be out of options in 2024, is a .274/.357/.434 hitter in 554 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s been leapfrogged on the depth chart by another former first-rounder, Patrick Bailey, who batted just .233/.285/.359 as a rookie but also graded out as arguably the best defensive catcher in MLB.
Reds Trade TJ Hopkins To Giants
The Giants announced Tuesday that they’ve acquired outfielder TJ Hopkins from the Reds in exchange for cash or a player to be named later. Cincinnati designated Hopkins for assignment last week.
Hopkins, 27 next month, made his MLB debut this past season and went 7-for-41 (all singles) with a pair of walks and 17 strikeouts in 44 plate appearances. It was hardly an eye-catching debut, but the 2019 ninth-rounder’s production in Triple-A Louisville was far more intriguing. In his first full season at the top minor league level, Hopkins delivered a robust .308/.411/.514 batting line with a 14% walk rate, 23.9% strikeout rate, 16 home runs, 18 doubles, a triple and a pair of steals.
Hopkins has played primarily left field in his professional career but has plenty of experience in right field and center field as well. He’s been an average or better hitter at every minor league stop and steadily improved both his walk and strikeout rates as he’s climbed the minor league ladder. Hopkins was in the first of three minor league option years this past season, so he has two more remaining. He’ll give the Giants a right-handed depth bat to add to a heavily left-handed outfield mix.
Presently, the Giants project to have lefties Michael Conforto and Mike Yastrzemski in the outfield corners, where they’ll flank newly signed center fielder Jung Hoo Lee. The KBO star — another lefty bat — signed a six-year deal that’ll pay him $113MM just last week. Also in the outfield mix in San Francisco are righties Mitch Haniger, Austin Slater, Luis Matos, Heliot Ramos and lefties Blake Sabol and Wade Meckler. Haniger, who’s entering the second season of a three-year contract, could see a fair bit of time at designated hitter. Sabol could see big league time as a reserve catcher and outfielder.
Rockies, Chance Adams Agree To Minor League Deal
The Rockies have re-signed righty Chance Adams to a minor league deal and invited him to big league camp this spring, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’d earn at a $740K rate in the Majors.
Adams, 29, once ranked among the best pitching prospects in the sport but hasn’t yet found any success in the big leagues. The 2015 fifth-rounder has totaled 41 2/3 MLB frames, yielding a dismal 8.42 ERA in that time. Adams has a far better track record in Triple-A, where he’s turned in a 4.06 ERA in parts of five seasons (a total of 343 1/3 innings).
Adams hasn’t pitched in the Majors since a brief 2020 look with the Royals. He wound up requiring Tommy John surgery that October and made a very brief return to the Royals minor league ranks late in the ’21 campaign (6 2/3 innings). Adams didn’t pitch with an affiliated club in 2022 and spent the 2023 season in the Rockies organization, where he’ll now return.
Though he worked primarily as a starter early in his career, Adams came out of the bullpen for the Rockies’ Triple-A club last season. In 32 2/3 innings, he worked to a 3.86 ERA with solid walk and ground-ball rates of 7.1% and 44.9%, respectively. Adams fanned only 15% of his opponents in Albuquerque, however.
Back with the Rockies and seemingly back to full strength, Adams will have an opportunity to earn a spot in the Colorado bullpen this spring. The Rockies don’t have a ton of bullpen flexibility, with six relievers who can’t be optioned: Justin Lawrence, Tyler Kinley, Daniel Bard, Nick Mears, Jalen Beeks and Rule 5 pick Anthony Molina. There should still be a couple spots up for grabs, however, particularly if Molina doesn’t end up sticking on the roster and is eventually returned to the Rays.
Latest On Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s Market
There’s been ample speculation about the eventual price tag of a Yoshinobu Yamamoto contract, but until early this week, the right-hander hadn’t discussed specific years and dollars with clubs, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.
Teams eyeing the NPB ace’s services were asked to submit a “preliminary” bid early in the process to gauge the seriousness of their interest, per Passan, but a follow-up round of more concrete bidding hadn’t taken place prior to this week. Yamamoto has met with several teams recently, presumably to familiarize himself with each organization and the systems and personnel in place at each potential landing spot. Entering the week, no teams had made a formal offer of $300MM or more, despite speculation to the contrary; none, in fact, had submitted a formal offer even beyond that preliminary bid. Passan wrote that some clubs have tried to broach the subject of years and dollars, but Yamamoto’s camp preferred to hold off until this week.
The Yankees, Mets, Dodgers, Giants, Red Sox, Phillies and perhaps the Blue Jays among the teams reported to have met with Yamamoto over the past 14 days. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic characterized both the Phillies and Blue Jays as teams more on the periphery of the bidding as of this morning, however (video link). It takes only one aggressive bid to change that perception, of course, but it’s notable that they’re being framed in that manner at present.
The two New York clubs have long been known to be serious bidders for Yamamoto, though the manner in which he fits into each club’s landscape of potential offseason moves is quite different. The Yankees, for instance, have no intention of easing up even if they miss on Yamamoto. If they can’t lure the 25-year-old righty to the Bronx, Rosenthal suggests they’ll look to bolster the roster elsewhere. Among the possibilities he lays out are a run at bringing Jordan Montgomery back to the Bronx or perhaps building a stacked bullpen with pursuits of top-tier relievers like Josh Hader, Jordan Hicks and Robert Stephenson.
That seems to be a direct contrast to how the Mets are approaching the situation. The Athletic’s Will Sammon wrote over the weekend that the Mets are focused on Yamamoto and Yamamoto alone; they’re not expected to change course and pursue other marquee additions if Yamamoto ultimately signs elsewhere. Mike Puma of the New York Post reports that the Mets will submit a formal offer to Yamamoto in the next couple of days, adding that the team’s expectation has been that Yamamoto will reach a decision before next Monday. That’s entirely dependent on the player’s mindset, of course; Yamamoto’s 45-day negotiation window with MLB clubs doesn’t draw to a close until Jan. 4.
MLBTR polled readers last week, with more than 27% indicating they believe Yamamoto will sign somewhere between $300-325MM, not including the posting/release fee owed to his former club, the Orix Buffaloes. The Yankees and Dodgers were the top predicted landing spots, with both drawing about 22% of the vote (though the Yankees technically garnered 88 more of the 17,000+ votes than the Dodgers).
Royals Sign Michael Wacha
December 18: The Royals have now officially announced the deal.
December 15: The Royals’ active offseason is continuing, as Kansas City has agreed to terms with free agent righty Michael Wacha, per a report from Robert Murray of FanSided. It’s a two-year, $32MM contract, ESPN’s Jeff Passan adds. The second season is a player option, so Wacha will have the opportunity to opt back into free agency next winter. The contract pays the CAA client an even $16MM in each season, per USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, and Anne Rogers of MLB.com tweets that Wacha can earn an additional $500K via incentives in each season of the deal.
It’s the second notable free-agent pickup of the day for the Royals, who also agreed to a two-year $13MM deal with Hunter Renfroe earlier this morning. Kansas City has also added righty Seth Lugo on a three-year, $45MM pact that contains an opt-out after the second season. Wacha and Lugo, who were teammates with the Padres in 2023, will join a Royals rotation that includes Cole Ragans, Brady Singer and Jordan Lyles. Depth options include Daniel Lynch, Kris Bubic (recovering from Tommy John surgery), Max Castillo, Alec Marsh and Jonathan Heasley, among others.
Wacha’s two-year, $32MM deal matches the exact terms of a two-year club option that the Padres declined earlier this offseason. The inclusion of an opt-out provision and some modest incentives makes this a stronger deal for the righty, however. Kansas City will be Wacha’s sixth team in six years, as his trips to free agency have routinely resulted in either a one-year pact (Mets, Rays, Red Sox) or a multi-year deal with options and/or opt-out opportunities (Padres).
Over the past two seasons, between the Red Sox and Padres, Wacha has posted a combined 3.27 ERA with a 21.3% strikeout rate, 6.9% walk rate and 37.7% ground-ball rate. Despite being more of a fly-ball pitcher, he’s allowed a manageable 1.14 homers per nine frames. Pitching his home games at the spacious Kauffman Stadium should help him continue to avoid the long ball at an acceptable rate despite his pronounced fly-ball tendencies.
In those two seasons, Wacha has changed up his pitch selection, reducing his reliance on a four-seamer while increasing the usage rates on his sinker and changeup. He threw both pitches at a career-high rate in 2022 and then set a new career-high in usage again in 2023. While the more frequent sinker usage hasn’t shown up in Wacha’s ground-ball rates, he’s posted improved batted-ball metrics; last year’s 88.1 mph average exit velocity and 35.4% hard-hit rate were both lower than the league averages of 89 mph and 39.2%, respectively. That’s helped Wacha to offset his slightly below-average strikeout rate.
The number of innings that the Royals can expect from Wacha is perhaps the biggest question mark surrounding him. Wacha has been placed on the injured list nine times in his big league career, with five of those IL placements stemming from shoulder troubles (including a six-week absence in the 2023 season). Wacha has also had IL stints for oblique, hamstring, knee and intercostal strains. While the shoulder is an obvious concern, Wacha did manage a solid 3.88 ERA in 48 2/3 innings after returning from this past season’s shoulder issue. He closed out the year with a pair of particularly impressive outings, tossing consecutive seven-inning gems (two total runs allowed on nine hits and two walks with 13 strikeouts).
With Wacha, Renfroe, Lugo, Will Smith, Chris Stratton and Garrett Hampson all signing major league deals in Kansas City this month, the Royals have committed $105MM in total free-agent dollars in a span of just over two weeks. It’s unlikely all of those dollars will end up being paid out, as each of Wacha, Renfroe, Stratton and Lugo received player options/opt-outs within their respective contracts. Still, it’s a hefty slate of investments by Kansas City’s standards — one that’s added an additional $47MM in payroll to the team’s 2024 roster (a net $45.75MM, when factoring in that Taylor Clarke and his $1.25MM salary were traded to the Brewers to make roster space for Lugo).
The relatively heavy investment in free-agent arms represents something of an acknowledgement from the Kansas City front office that its previous efforts to rebuild a homegrown rotation with a heavy focus on college arms in the draft simply hasn’t panned out. Singer, Lynch, Bubic, Marsh, Jackson Kowar and Asa Lacy were at one point focal components of the Royals’ hopes for the future, but only Singer remains locked into the rotation but is in need of a bounceback campaign after he was unable to carry his 2022 breakout into the 2023 season. Kowar was traded to the Braves for injured starter Kyle Wright (who’ll miss all of 2024). Lacy has yet to reach the Majors. Lynch and Marsh haven’t established themselves. Bubic showed some promise before tearing his left ulnar collateral ligament and undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Kansas City’s new-look rotation should represent a massive improvement over last year’s group, which pitched to a combined 5.12 ERA, ranking 27th in the big leagues. Gone from that mix are Brad Keller, Ryan Yarbrough and (at least for now) Zack Greinke. Other key names in 2023, Lynch most prominently, have been pushed down the depth chart. It’s not yet clear what lies ahead for the Royals and Greinke. The future Hall of Famer spent the past two seasons back with his original organization and at least ostensibly seemed poised to close out his career there. It’s possible the two parties still come to terms on another one-year pact, as Greinke is preparing to pitch in 2024, but that would likely push Lyles to the bullpen (or perhaps prompt the Royals to explore a potential trade of the veteran innings eater).
Diamondbacks Claim Collin Snider
The D-backs announced Monday that they’ve claimed right-hander Collin Snider off waivers from the Royals, who designated him for assignment last week. Arizona’s 40-man roster is now at capacity.
The 28-year-old Snider has seen action in the Majors in each of the past two seasons with the Royals, totaling 54 2/3 innings in that time. He’s struggled with a 5.93 ERA, 13.4% strikeout rate and 11.4% walk rate in that time. Snider, however, averages 95.7 mph on his sinker and has piled up grounders at a 51.9% clip in his young MLB career. He has a minor league option remaining as well, so the D-backs can shuttle him between Phoenix and Triple-A Reno in 2024 — if he lasts on the 40-man roster long enough to make it into the season, of course.
Snider walked more batters than he struck out in 20 1/3 MLB frames with K.C. this past season, but he also excelled in minimizing hard contact. The right-hander yielded a dismal 86.6 mph average exit velocity, and his 28.2% opponents’ hard-hit rate is nothing shy of excellent. It’s all small-sample theater, given Snider’s relative lack of MLB experience, but the Snakes surely don’t mind adding an optionable righty with some MLB experience and a power sinker to their stash of bullpen options for the upcoming 2024 campaign.
Mets Acquire Yohan Ramirez
The Mets announced Monday that they’ve acquired right-hander Yohan Ramirez from the White Sox in exchange for cash. Ramirez was designated for assignment by the ChiSox last week.
Ramirez appeared in just five games for the White Sox, who acquired him from the Pirates via an early-September waiver claim. He yielded four runs in four innings with the South Siders but had pitched to a solid 3.67 ERA with a 20% strikeout rate and 9% walk rate in 34 1/3 innings.
Now 28 years old, Ramirez made his big league debut with the Mariners in 2020 and has appeared in every MLB season since. He’s totaled 124 innings of 3.99 ERA ball as a big leaguer, striking out 23.2% of his opponents against a 12.5% walk rate that’s well north of the league average. Ramirez was a fly-ball pitcher early in his career but switched from a four-seamer to a two-seamer in 2022 and has since been a pronounced ground-ball arm (54.1%).
Scouting reports on Ramirez from his prospect days praised his stuff across the board but noted that he lacked command. That’s played out through much of his big league tenure to date, but the pieces for a quality reliever are clearly present. He’s out of minor league options, so the Mets will have to either carry Ramirez on the Opening Day roster or else trade him, release him or attempt to pass him through outright waivers prior to the end of spring training.
Gomes: Dodgers Seek Additional Starting Pitching
The Dodgers added a playoff-caliber arm to their staff when acquiring Tyler Glasnow from the Rays, but they’re still searching for more starting pitching, general manager Brandon Gomes told reporters Monday (via Fabian Aradaya of The Athletic).
That shouldn’t come as any real surprise. Los Angeles included a member of its rotation, right-hander Ryan Pepiot, in the package to acquire Glasnow from Tampa Bay, so they didn’t really add to their depth at all in the swap. Glasnow also has a lengthy injury history, with last season’s 120 frames representing a career-high. While the Dodgers surely feel he’s an upgrade on a per-inning basis, they also can’t simply bank on Glasnow making 30 starts and occupying a workhorse role atop the rotation.
As it stands, the L.A. rotation would feature Glasnow, Walker Buehler (who’ll be on an innings limit in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery), Bobby Miller and Emmet Sheehan. Candidates for the fifth spot include Michael Grove, Gavin Stone, Ryan Yarbrough and prospects Nick Frasso and Landon Knack.
There have already been indications that the Dodgers would continue to be active in the starting pitching market, albeit none as concrete as an on-record declaration from the team’s general manager. The Dodgers have been a prominent participant in the bidding for NPB ace Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and they’ve also reportedly shown interest in trading for White Sox righty Dylan Cease. Other rumored targets have included free agent righties Lucas Giolito and Seth Lugo (who’s since signed with the Royals). A reunion with Clayton Kershaw remains eminently plausible, although Kershaw wouldn’t be available to pitch until next summer at the earliest.
The Dodgers are less than $2MM from the second luxury tax threshold, per Roster Resource’s projections, although their actual bottom-line payroll clocks in under $200MM thanks to deferred money not only in the Shohei Ohtani contract but also the significant deferrals in the Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman deals. As a third-time luxury payor, they’ll effectively be taxed at a 62% clip for the next $20MM they spend and a 95% clip for the $20MM after that, and 110% for any money spent thereafter.
Yamamoto’s lingering presence in free agency has continued to hold up other aspects of the market, though he’ll have to sign a deal by early January — and reports have suggested he could look to finalize a deal before Christmas. Once he’s made a decision, pitchers like Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, Shota Imanaga, Marcus Stroman and Giolito could accelerate. Similarly, the White Sox (Cease) and Guardians (Shane Bieber) could increase their efforts to trade prominent starters of their own, knowing that the teams who missed on Yamamoto will be motivated to find alternate options elsewhere.
Braves Release Matt Carpenter
The Braves have released veteran infielder/designated hitter Matt Carpenter, reports Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Atlanta acquired Carpenter a few days ago, taking on $4MM of this year’s $5.5MM salary (and the associated luxury tax hit) as a means of effectively purchasing left-handed reliever Ray Kerr from the Padres.
While the Braves had hoped to trade Carpenter in similar fashion to Marco Gonzales, Evan White and Max Stassi (all of whom they acquired and quickly dealt away in salary-driven swaps), it seems they weren’t able to find a taker for Carpenter even at that rate. He’ll now be a free agent who’ll cost a new team only the league minimum for any time spent on the big league roster — the Braves and Padres will remain on the hook for the rest of his salary.
Carpenter, 38, had a brilliant bounceback season with the Yankees in 2022 when he slashed .305/.412/.727 with 15 home runs in just 154 trips to the plate. A broken foot ended his season, but that eye-popping resurgence was still enough to land him a two-year, $12MM deal with the Padres last offseason.
Unfortunately for the Padres and Carpenter alike, his 2023 campaign looked more like the 2020-21 version of Carpenter who’d looked to be on the decline. In 237 plate appearances with the Friars last year, Carpenter hit just .176/.322/.319. He still walked at a massive 17.3% clip, but Carpenter’s strikeout rate spiked as his exit velocity and hard-hit rate trended in the other direction. The former Cardinals star’s newfound focus on elevating the ball at career-high levels served him well in 2022, but he perhaps took that too far in ’23, lifting 10 harmless pop-ups in his tiny sample of plate appearances. Given his huge walk and strikeout rates, Carpenter only put 125 balls in play last year — 10 of which were effectively automatic outs.
Now that he’s a free agent and can be signed on a league-minimum MLB deal or even on a minor league deal and spring training invite, Carpenter should draw interest from teams seeking left-handed bats. A return to that Herculean production from the summer of 2022 might not be plausible, but there’d be little to no risk for a new club trying to catch lightning in a bottle in the same manner as the 2022 Yankees did.