Latest On Edwin Diaz
Injured Mets closer Edwin Diaz has been targeting a late-season return since tearing the patellar tendon in his knee during the World Baseball Classic, and even with the Mets squarely out of postseason contention, he’s still working toward that goal. Diaz told reporters yesterday that he just threw his first bullpen session and is still hoping to pitch before the end of the year (video link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). Diaz’s hope is “to finish the year on a positive note,” and he later added that he was hitting 93 to 95 mph in Sunday’s bullpen session.
Onlookers may question the notion of bringing Diaz back at the short end of his recovery window of six to eight months, but both the pitcher and key members of the organization have previously spoken about the importance of Diaz getting back onto the mound to be sure he’s healthy and give him piece of mind through a hopefully normal offseason. Via Jerry Beach of the Associated Press, manager Buck Showalter said just yesterday that Diaz even being considered a possibility to return is a “good thing” and that the righty getting back on the mound would be “really exciting for everybody.” Showalter also emphasized that no decision will be made until Diaz is given medical clearance — which is still a aways off.
Diaz inked a five-year, $102MM contract to return to the Mets before free agency even opened in earnest last offseason — the largest contract ever given to a reliever. The first season of that pact has been wiped out entirely by his WBC knee injury. Given all that’s gone wrong in Queens this season, it’s unlikely that a healthy Diaz would’ve been enough to salvage the 2023 campaign, but losing him for the majority of the year was the first of many contributing factors to the downfall of a club featuring MLB’s largest-ever payroll.
The 29-year-old Diaz’s fastball isn’t back up to full strength, of course, but it’s nonetheless encouraging that he’s throwing 93 to 95 mph in his first ‘pen session. Diaz averaged 98.7 mph on his heater from 2020-22 — including 99.1 mph last year — and pitched to an electric 2.27 ERA with 70 saves during that time. His 2022 campaign was one of the best ever by a relief pitcher, as he worked to a pristine 1.31 ERA with 32 saves, a better-than-average 7.7% walk rate and a historic 50.2% strikeout rate that stands as the second-highest ever for a qualified reliever during a 162-game season (third-highest, if counting Devin Williams‘ 53% mark during the shortened 2020 season).
Blue Jays Notes: Bichette, Vlad, September Call-Ups
Blue Jays fans cringed in collective fashion when both Bo Bichette and Matt Chapman exited Sunday’s game due to injuries. Chapman has already been placed on the injured list with a strain in his right hand, while Bichette was out of last night’s lineup due to the quad discomfort that forced him from the prior day’s contest. While the Jays termed his exit precautionary, Bichette underwent an MRI last night, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. The team will presumably have an update on the star shortstop’s status today.
Toronto called up journeyman infielder Ernie Clement when Chapman hit the IL and went with him at shortstop and rookie Davis Schneider at third base in yesterday’s win over the Nationals. The 24-year-old Schneider has already popped five homers in his first 48 big league plate appearances, batting .425/.521/.875 in that tiny sample. Schneider has also fanned at a 29.2% rate and is sporting an outlandish .571 BABIP that he won’t sustain, but he’s nevertheless provided a jolt for the Toronto lineup. That arrangement could be in place a bit more regularly if Bichette misses time, although there’s room for the Jays to get creative.
One possibility that’s currently under consideration would be at least occasional time back at the hot corner for first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it seems. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet reports that while the Jays aren’t currently planning to start Guerrero at third base in Chapman’s absence, they’re open to using him there late in games as they make substitutions around the diamond. Guerrero has been taking grounders at the hot corner in recent days.
It’s also worth noting that the Jays will soon have two more roster spots to potentially add some depth with Chapman out at least 10 days and Bichette potentially sidelined as well. Rosters are set to expand from 26 to 28 players on Sept. 1, which could clear a path for Toronto to tap further into its minor league system for reinforcements. Kaitlyn McGrath of The Athletic suggests that infielders Addison Barger, Orelvis Martinez and Spencer Horwitz could all be considered for a big league call when rosters expand.
Each of Barger, Martinez and Horowitz is already on the 40-man roster. The former two could benefit the Jays with their versatility, as that pair has experience at each of shortstop, third base and second base. Horwitz has played primarily first base and left field in his professional career.
FanGraphs currently ranks Barger as the game’s No. 36 overall prospect. He’s spent time on the injured list but has turned in a .257/.371/.414 slash in 65 Triple-A games since returning, walking at a hearty 14.6% clip against a 21.1% strikeout rate. He hit .308/.378/.555 between High-A, Double-A and Triple-A last year. Martinez landed on Baseball America’s top-100 list prior to the 2021 and 2022 seasons but saw his stock tumble with a rough year in Double-A last year. The 21-year-old, has bounced back to some extent this season, posting a combined .242/.344/.496 line between Double-A and Triple-A (including a .276/.355/.517 slash at the higher of those two levels). Horwitz went 2-for-8 with a pair of walks in a brief MLB debut earlier this season and has slashed .339/.450/.499 in 476 Triple-A plate appearances, walking (15.8%) more often than he’s struck out (15.1%) in the process.
Boras On Bellinger’s Bounceback Season
Cody Bellinger‘s 2023 rebound season with the Cubs has positioned him as one of the top players set to hit the free agent market this offseason. The 28-year-old landed second on MLBTR’s latest update to our Free Agent Power Rankings, and it’s all but a foregone conclusion that he’ll hit the market looking to secure a massive payday this offseason. If there was any doubt about that possibility, Bellinger’s agent, Scott Boras, removed it when discussing his client’s resurgence with USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Interestingly, Boras called out the Dodgers organization for their handling of Bellinger when he wasn’t at full health.
“He was hurt, plain and simple,” Boras tells Nightengale of Bellinger’s 2021-22 seasons, when he batted a combined .193/.256/.355 in 900 plate appearances. “He has surgery, and the Dodgers asked him to play with a 35% strength deficiency, and then with COVID, he was deprived of the expert medical treatment. He didn’t have the shoulder strength. You don’t just go from a .900 OPS to a .500 OPS without understanding the impact of an injury.”
Bellinger famously injured his shoulder while celebrating a home run during the 2020 postseason. After swatting a go-ahead long ball in Game 7 of the NLCS, Bellinger and teammate Enrique Hernandez leapt and bashed their forearms together, which wound up dislocating Bellinger’s shoulder. He quickly had the shoulder popped back into its socket and continued to play through the World Series, but Bellinger underwent shoulder surgery in the offseason and didn’t look the same during 2021-22. He also dealt with a hairline fracture of his left fibula in April 2021 and later that season suffered a fractured rib when colliding with teammate Gavin Lux on a fly ball.
Fans tend to bristle at just about any public-facing comments from Boras, but in this case, injuries have long stood as an obvious and likely factor to Bellinger’s decline. The question surrounding his drop-off at the plate wasn’t so much one of whether the injuries were a factor, but rather one of whether he’d ever right the ship after struggling through a litany of injuries in under one year’s time.
The 2023 season in Chicago has rather emphatically answered those questions. Bellinger is hitting .321/.368/.546 with 20 home runs, 23 doubles, a triple and 18 steals (in 22 tries). He’s played both center field and first base for the Cubs, drawing above-average marks at each spot, and perhaps most critically has dramatically reduced his strikeout rate from 2021-22’s rate of 27.1% to a career-low 15%.
Bellinger isn’t walking nearly as often as he used to (7.2% compared to his 14.4% peak in 2019), and Statcast shows that he’s not hitting the ball nearly as hard as he did during his 2019 MVP campaign either. That season saw Bellinger average 91.1 mph off the bat with an overall 45.6% hard-hit rate; this year he’s at 87.3 mph and 30%, respectively. The drop in quality of contact is a potential red flag, but the results are undeniably impressive. When Bellinger does make hard contact, he’s managed to make the most of it.
It all sets the stage for a lucrative payday this winter, when the free-agent market will be largely devoid of productive, prime-aged hitters. In typical quotable fashion, Boras quipped that “demand is often created by rarity,” calling Bellinger a “five-tool player” and Gold Glove-caliber defender at multiple positions before adding that “…the demand for that is very, very high.” Bellinger said all the right things free agents typically espouse, about his desire to remain with the Cubs and his affinity for the stadium, fans and culture.
Nightengale also spoke with teammates Dansby Swanson and Michael Fulmer, manager David Ross and bench coach Andy Green, all of whom raved about Bellinger’s importance to the club and his remarkable season overall. The exact asking price on Bellinger won’t be clear until the offseason begins in earnest, but it’s easy to envision Boras & Co. seeking a long-term deal worth more than the hefty sums secured for fellow clients Brandon Nimmo (eight years, $162MM) and Kris Bryant (seven years, $182MM). Both began their respective contracts in their age-30 seasons; Bellinger won’t turn 29 until the All-Star break next season.
Blue Jays Place Matt Chapman On Injured List
The Blue Jays have placed third baseman Matt Chapman on the 10-day injured list due to a sprained right middle finger, per a team announcement. Infielder Ernie Clement has been recalled from Triple-A Buffalo to take his spot on the active roster. Chapman exited yesterday’s game with discomfort in that finger, and manager John Schneider revealed after the game that it had been bothering Chapman for several weeks after a weight room accident.
Chapman’s season began with a blistering hot streak that saw the former A’s slugger briefly regain the MVP-caliber form he’d displayed earlier in his career. Through the end of April, the two-time Platinum Glove winner posted an outrageous .384/.465/.687 batting line with a 12.3% walk rate and 22.8% strikeout rate. That checked in 115% better than league average, by measure of wRC+, but Chapman’s previous strikeout woes have since come roaring back since that time. In 406 plate appearances dating back to May 1, he’s batted .211/.303/.360 with a 30% strikeout rate.
The past few weeks have indeed been particularly difficult; Schneider didn’t place an exact date on Chapman’s injury, but he’s hitting .194/.256/.278 since the trade deadline — a far cry from the month of July, when he looked to be on the upswing (.247/.402/.506). Chapman averaged a hefty 94.2 mph off the bat with a massive 59.3% hard-hit rate through Aug. 1 of this season, but since the deadline he’s been at 89.5 mph and 41.3%, respectively, in those regards. It seems rather clear that something hasn’t been right.
It’s not presently known just how long Chapman will be sidelined, though the Jays will certainly hope for a swift return. Even as his bat has fallen off, Chapman has continued to play his customary brand of excellent defense at third base. His batted-ball profile also creates some consistent hope for a turnaround at the plate. Players who can consistently make high-end contact at Chapman’s rate tend to eventually see their production line up with those batted-ball trends. Toronto is currently 2.5 games out of the American League Wild Card hunt as well, and getting a healthy Chapman back into the lineup would be a boon as they look to chase down the Rays, Rangers and Astros — who currently hold those three Wild Card spots.
A speedy return to the lineup will also be of importance to Chapman himself, who’s slated to become a free agent for the first time at season’s end. The month of August hasn’t gone as he’d hoped following a productive July, and the ideal scenario for him would be to allow that barking hand to heal and finish out the season on a productive stretch. A qualifying offer for Chapman appears quite likely, and provided he can return and finish out the season with a strong performance, he’d have little hesitation in rejecting it in favor of a multi-year deal. Up-and-down as his season may have been, Chapman is currently batting .248/.338/.431 on the whole — production that’s about 13% better than league average, per wRC+. Coupled with his standout glovework and the general upside of his batted-ball profile, he’d still be one of the market’s most sought-after free agents — albeit not to the extent that he’d have been had he maintained his plus offensive output all season.
Francisco Mejia Accepts Outright Assignment With Rays
Catcher Francisco Mejia, whom the Rays designated for assignment last week, has accepted an outright assignment to Triple-A Durham after clearing waivers and will remain with the organization, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. As a player with more than five years of service time, Mejia could’ve rejected that assignment in favor of free agency and still retained the remainder of this year’s $2.2MM salary, but he’ll opt to remain with the Rays and hope for a call back to the big leagues. If he’s not added back to the 40-man roster between now and season’s end, Mejia can become a free agent to begin the offseason.
Mejia, 27, was once regarded as one of the top prospects in all of baseball but has not yet seen his offense in the big leagues match his prodigious output in the upper minors. The switch-hitter is a .304/.348/.507 hitter in parts of three Triple-A seasons, but the former San Diego and Cleveland farmhand has produced just a .239/.284/.394 batting line in 1098 plate appearances between his three organizations. Cleveland flipped him to San Diego as part of the 2018 Brad Hand trade, while the Friars sent him to Tampa Bay as part of 2020’s Blake Snell trade.
While Mejia showed some promise in 2021, hitting .260/.322/.416 in his first season with the Rays, he’s batted .237/.262/.387 in 143 games since that time. He’s regularly drawn below-average framing grades, and this year he’s thwarted just four of the 42 stolen base attempts against him. Dating back to the 2018 season, Statcast also grades him 61st of 75 qualified catchers in terms of pitch blocking (-14 blocks above average).
With Mejia now off the 40-man roster (but still in the organization), the Rays are going with the light-hitting but defensively superior tandem of Rene Pinto and Christian Bethancourt behind the plate. Mejia will now be the primary fallback option for that pair, and with rosters set to expand to 28 players on Sept. 1, it could be easier to get him back on the big league roster if the organization wishes to do so.
Jorge Soler Interested In Extension With Marlins
1:25pm: Mish now tweets that Soler’s agent, Dan Lozano of the MVP Sports Group, tells him there have not yet been any formal extension discussions with the team. Mish adds that Soler is interested in remaining with Miami, however.
11:47am: The Marlins and designated hitter Jorge Soler have held “preliminary” talks about a potential contract extension, Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald report. Soler’s contract calls for him to earn $12MM next year — a number that’ll soon jump to $13MM when he tallies his 550th plate appearance — but that’s a player option. Soler, unsurprisingly, is likely to decline that player option and return to the open market if a new deal isn’t reached, per the report.
The 31-year-old Soler is in the midst of a rebound season at the plate, having slashed .241/.328/.516 with 35 home runs in 525 trips to the plate. It’s a stark turnaround from the 2022 season — his first in Miami — during which he batted just .207/.295/.400 during an injury-marred campaign. Soler has slightly improved on his walk rate in ’23 (10.7%), and his strikeout rate has fallen from an ugly 29.4% last year to a more manageable 24.6% in 2023.
Soler’s 91 mph average exit velocity (76th percentile), 15.1% barrel rate (93rd percentile) and 47.5% hard-hit rate (82nd percentile) all lend some credence to his rebound effort at the plate. His 35 home runs tie him with Mookie Betts for fifth in the Majors. He’s held his own against right-handed pitching (.229/.310/.458) and absolutely decimated left-handed opponents (.282/.380/.718). As such, teams that have struggled against southpaws could have particular interest in Soler this winter.
Between that success at the plate and a woefully thin class of free-agent position players this winter, it’s only logical that Soler would exercise his right to opt back into free agency. His Herculean run with the Braves following a 2021 trade from Kansas City to Atlanta set the stage for Soler to land his current three-year, $36MM deal in free agency. And while Soler is now a couple years older, of course, his 2023 campaign at the plate has been a more consistent and complete year overall than he had in 2021 (.223/.316/.432 between the Royals and Braves).
One potentially complicating factor this time around would be a qualifying offer. Soler was ineligible to receive a QO last time he reached free agency, due to the fact that he was traded midseason. He’ll spend the entire 2023 season with one team and, as a player who hasn’t previously received a QO, will be eligible for one this winter. The QO value figures to increase from last year’s $19.65MM, likely surpassing $20MM this time around. As is frequently the case, Soler probably won’t match that AAV on a multi-year deal, but he could earn more than double the QO value in guaranteed money on a multi-year deal in free agency.
There will be fewer impact bats available in free agency this offseason than perhaps at any point in recent history. Shohei Ohtani and Cody Bellinger topped the most recent edition of MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings, and Jeimer Candelario is having his third strong season in his past four years.
There’s little in the way of productive, prime-aged hitters reaching the market thereafter. Matt Chapman‘s bat has cooled considerably since a torrid start to the season. Teoscar Hernandez is having his least-productive campaign since 2018. Neither Michael Conforto nor Hunter Renfroe is hitting anywhere close to previous peak levels. Rhys Hoskins tore his ACL in spring training. Justin Turner seems likely to decline his own player option, but he’ll turn 39 this winter. J.D. Martinez is having a strong season but has twice been on the injured list and just turned 36.
Jackson and Mish write that Soler has enjoyed his time in Miami and has interest in working out a longer-term arrangement. That said, between his age and this year’s production, Soler will have a case as one of the more appealing bats on a thin market. Given his proximity to free agency, it seems unlikely he’d take a substantial discount. The Marlins already outbid the field to sign Soler once, when signing him to his current contract, but it’d not yet clear if they’ll be comfortable putting forth another market-value offer when Soler’s stock is presumably higher than it was last time around.
Braves Promote Darius Vines, Activate Ozzie Albies
The Braves announced a handful of roster moves Monday, optioning infielder Vaughn Grissom and lefty Jared Shuster to Triple-A Gwinnett while recalling righty Darius Vines for his MLB debut and reinstating second baseman Ozzie Albies from the injured list.
Vines, 25, was Atlanta’s seventh-round pick back in 2019 and has pitched well across three minor league levels this season after returning from a lengthy absence brought about by shoulder inflammation. Baseball America currently ranks him fifth among Braves prospects, while MLB.com has him tenth and FanGraphs pegs him 13th.
Since returning from the injured list in June, Vines has made nine starts: two with the team’s Rookie-level affiliate in the Florida Complex League, two in High-A and five with Triple-A Gwinnett once those four rehab appearances were complete. He hadn’t pitched beyond six innings until his most recent outing — a seven-inning start against the Brewers’ Triple-A affiliate — but Vines has reached 90 pitches in each of his past three starts. He’ll give the Braves a long option out of the bullpen or a candidate to make a spot start, as needed.
In 43 1/3 innings this year, the Cal State Bakersfield product has posted a 2.70 ERA with a 27.1% strikeout rate, 8.2% walk rate and 44.4% ground-ball rate. Scouting reports at BA, MLB.com and FanGraphs tab Vines as a potential back-of-the-rotation arm thanks to his command of a three-pitch repertoire (fastball, slider, changeup). The changeup draws plus (60 on the 20-80 scale) or better offerings, with BA’s report noting that some scouts have put a plus-plus (70) grade on the pitch.
Vines joins Shuster, Dylan Dodd, Michael Soroka, AJ Smith–Shawver, Allan Winans and (once healthy) Ian Anderson as an in-house option who can compete for a rotation job next year. The Braves are largely set with Max Fried, Charlie Morton, Bryce Elder and a soon-to-return Kyle Wright making up the front four in the rotation both down the stretch and likely in the 2023 postseason. Morton isn’t a lock to return — the Braves have a $20MM option on him for the 2024 season — which will leave at least one and possibly two spots to be sorted out next spring. (The offseason could bring about trades and/or free-agent additions to address the starting staff, of course.)
As for Albies, he’ll return after two weeks on the shelf due to a strained hamstring. The Braves initially expressed optimism that Albies was only dealing with some minor cramping and might not even require an IL stint, but further testing revealed what wound up apparently being a fairly minor strain. Given Atlanta’s overwhelming lead in the NL East, there was every reason to proceed with caution, as they can effectively sleepwalk their way to a division title with a 12.5-game lead and just 33 games left to be played. Albies is in the midst of another terrific season, batting .267/.327/..514 with 28 home runs in 510 plate appearances.
2023-24 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings: August Edition
We’re now about three quarters of the way through the regular season, and the free-agent landscape has changed considerably since our last power rankings back in June. With the trade market passed, we now know who will and won’t be eligible to receive a qualifying offer at season’s end. (Traded players cannot receive a QO.) Max Scherzer needn’t be listed at the back of the list or among the honorable mentions now that he’s agreed to pick up next year’s player option as part of the condition of his trade to Texas. Injuries, performance trends — both good and bad — and many other factors all contribute to shifts in market expectation.
As a reminder, our Power Rankings are based primarily on perceived earning power. This is an exercise intended to provide a snapshot of where the top end of the free agent class is currently sitting. One player being ranked higher than another does not necessarily indicate we feel he’s the better player. Age, health, qualifying offer status, market scarcity and myriad other factors all impact what a player can expect to earn in free agency.
Our Power Rankings are compiled collaboratively. MLBTR owner Tim Dierkes and writers Anthony Franco and Darragh McDonald all weighed in for this update. Players with opt-out clauses and player options are included, even if they’ve previously given indications they may forgo the opportunity to return to the market.
*=Player option/opt-out opportunity
**=Currently playing in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball
1. Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP, Angels
Eligible for qualifying offer
The baseball world is still reeling from this week’s news that Ohtani has been diagnosed with a torn ulnar collateral ligament for the second time in his career. He won’t pitch again this season, and surgery — be it Tommy John or an internal brace — is firmly on the table. For now, he’ll continue to serve as the Angels’ DH as he and the team receive outside opinions on his damaged ligament.
There’s no way around the fact that Ohtani’s injury represents a massive blow to his earning power — but perhaps not to the extent that many fans would think. Ohtani is still the best player on the planet, doing things that we simply haven’t seen in our lifetimes — arguably ever before. The 29-year-old’s .304/.409/.659 batting line puts him 80% ahead of the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, and prior to his injury, he’d run up 132 innings of 3.14 ERA ball.
Ohtani ranks seventh in the Majors in batting average, second in on-base percentage, first in slugging percentage (by more than 60 points), tenth in ERA and third in strikeout percentage (as a pitcher). We’ve grown almost accustomed to this level of excellence, but the manner in which he permeates both the offensive and pitching leaderboards in Major League Baseball is nothing short of prodigious.
Certainly, it’s an open question as to whether Ohtani will pitch at all next year. By the time he’s reached free agency, we’ll likely know the answer to that question. Depending on whether he needs surgery — and, if so, which surgery he requires — it’s possible he’ll miss the beginning of the 2024 season. Bryce Harper had offseason Tommy John surgery this past year and returned to the Phillies on May 2. Ohtani himself had his first Tommy John surgery in October 2018 and was back on the field as a designated hitter on May 7 the following year.
Even if Ohtani is ruled out from pitching next year, any team signing him would be paying for one of the game’s best hitters — and for a potential return to the mound in 2025. It’s fair to wonder just how long Ohtani can continue pitching and hitting simultaneously and do so at elite levels, but he’s spent the past three years proving those who doubted his preternatural talents wrong. The ultra-competitive Ohtani will surely try to do so again; there’s little reason to think he’d move on from pitching due to a second surgery. What shape that eventually takes — limiting him to five innings most starts, affording him extra rest throughout the season, moving him to the bullpen, etc. — will likely depend on the team with which he eventually signs.
Regardless of Ohtani’s future on the mound, he’ll probably still set the record for largest free agent contract ever. That may sound outlandish to some at first glance, but consider the fact that Ohtani will reach the market two years younger than Aaron Judge was when he scored a $360MM guarantee. Judge landed that record sum as a 31-year-old who ostensibly only had three competitive bidders: the incumbent Yankees, his hometown Giants, and the late-bidding Padres. Ohtani will draw interest from a larger number of teams. And, as marketable as Judge is, Ohtani is even more so. The additional revenues he’d generate from his global fan base can’t be overlooked.
Moreover, Ohtani only seems to be getting better at the plate. After striking out at 28.1% clip through his first four seasons, he dropped that number to 24.2% last year. The lowered strikeout rate also came with a dip in walk rate (down to 10.8%), but this year he’s maintained that improved strikeout rate while bumping his walk rate back to 14.2%. Ohtani is also just two home runs shy of his career-high and looks like a lock to reach 50 home runs. His .360 ISO (slugging minus batting average) is a career-high. Ohtani’s 94.9 mph average exit velocity trails only Judge, and his 118.3 mph maximum exit velo this season trails only Matt Olson. No player has hit a ball further than Ohtani’s MLB-best 493 feet, per Statcast.
Ohtani’s second UCL tear could shorten his 2024 season and might necessitate extra care for his arm when he returns to the mound — be that late in the 2024 season or early in the 2025 campaign. But he’s probably going to pitch again — he’ll certainly try to — and even if he doesn’t, he’s hitting the market as one of baseball’s premier offensive players in advance of his age-29 season. Plus, if Ohtani were to ever give up pitching, he wouldn’t be “just” a designated hitter, as many detractors have suggested. Ohtani is no stranger to the outfield, having played there during his NPB days. Statcast still credits him with 65th percentile sprint speed, and there’s no questioning his raw athleticism and arm strength. There’s little reason to think he couldn’t at least be a serviceable corner outfielder.
Age and elite offensive performance on their own still ought to push Ohtani past Judge this winter. The only question will be how far beyond Judge he can ultimately club. Securing the first $400MM free agent contract in history feels attainable even with the questions surrounding his arm. Time will tell if $500MM+ remains on the table.
2. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, Cubs
Eligible for qualifying offer
Bellinger jumps from unranked on our last list to the No. 2 spot in a matter of just two months. At the time of our June list, he’d just been reinstated from the injured list and was mired in what turned out to be a fleeting slump. We listed Bellinger as an honorable mention and considered him for a spot near the bottom of the list, but felt he needed to improve his stock a bit. He’s done that — and then some.
Not many one-year, make-good deals have gone as well as Bellinger’s remarkable bounceback season. Non-tendered by the Dodgers after shoulder surgery left him a shell of his former Rookie of the Year and MVP self from 2021-22, Bellinger now looks to be back in a big way. The 2019 Most Valuable Player is batting .320/.368/.552 with 20 home runs, 21 doubles, a triple and 17 steals in 20 tries. The most alarming element of his downturn in 2021-22 was a strikeout rate that ballooned to 27.1%, but Bellinger is now punching out at a career-low 15.5% rate.
Bellinger’s rebound isn’t without red flags, as I noted last week when profiling his season at greater length. He missed more than a month with a knee injury, and in more under-the-radar fashion, the quality of his contact is just nowhere near as good as it was at his peak. Bellinger is averaging 87.2 mph off the bat — four miles per hour slower than during his MVP season. A hefty 45.6% of his batted balls left the bat at 95 mph+ in 2019; he’s at 30.8% in 2023. He’ll also receive and reject a qualifying offer, though for free agents of this caliber, that’s rarely a significant deterrent.
The Cubs have played Bellinger both at first base and in center field this season, and he’ll draw interest from teams with visions of playing him at first base and across all three outfield spots. He drew plus ratings from Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average in his return to first base, and he’s been credited with +4 OAA in center field this year. Teams will see Bellinger as a versatile and above-average defender at multiple spots on the field.
The other factors to consider with Bellinger are age and market scarcity. He won’t turn 29 until July 13 of next season, meaning next year will technically be considered his age-28 season. (July 1 is the typical cutoff for such designations.) He’s considerably younger than the standard free agent, and he happens to hit the market in a year where there’s not only a lack of quality outfielders/first baseman — but a lack of quality bats overall.
Bellinger is at least two years younger than each of Kris Bryant ($182MM), Brandon Nimmo ($162MM) and George Springer ($150MM) were when they hit free agency. He’s having a better offensive platform year than any of that group at the plate. Bellinger and Scott Boras will likely be seeking $200MM+ in free agency this time around, and there’s a real chance he’ll get it.
3. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP, Orix Buffaloes**
Ineligible for qualifying offer
At the time of our June list, Yamamoto was sitting on a 1.98 ERA in 68 1/3 frames, positioning him to potentially finish the season with his fourth sub-2.00 ERA in the past five years. Since that time, he’s allowed five total runs in 51 2/3 frames. His 0.87 ERA in that stretch has dropped his season mark to 1.50 over the life of 120 innings. He’s averaging seven innings per start in NPB this year.
If age was worth mentioning with regard to Bellinger, it’s worth focusing on in near-singular fashion with Yamamoto, who turned 25 just last week. Yamamoto is one of the most accomplished pitchers in NPB — widely regarded as the second-best league in the world — despite the fact that he’s around the same age as some of the yet-to-debut names that populate top prospect lists here in North America. He went straight from the NPB draft into the Buffaloes’ rotation, and while his 5.32 ERA as a rookie wasn’t exactly captivating, Yamamoto followed with a 2.10 ERA in 2019 and has been established as an ace-caliber pitcher ever since.
Most MLB free agents hit the market between 29 and 31 years of age. There are occasional 28-year-old free agents, and even more rarely we’ll see a 27-year-old or even 26-year-old, if said player reached the big leagues as some kind of youthful phenom. Yamamoto will be signing a contract beginning with his age-25 season — a virtually unprecedented age for a top-of-the-rotation arm to reach the market. A six-year deal for him would run through only his age-30 season — the same age at which many MLB free agents are just getting to market. It’s always hard to predict how the market might react to star players coming over from NPB or the Korea Baseball Organization, but Yamamoto’s blend of age and performance is basically unprecedented. It’s easy to envision him receiving offers of eight years — possibly even more — based on his youth. Presumably, Yamamoto’s camp could look to work some opt-out opportunities into any deal as well.
Yamamoto isn’t a true free agent; he’ll need to be posted by the Buffaloes, though it’s widely expected they’ll do just that. Any team that signs Yamamoto would owe his former club a release fee equal to 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any money thereafter (including options, incentives, awards bonuses, etc.). On a $200MM deal, for instance, the signing team would owe an additional $31.875MM release fee.
Predicting contracts for foreign stars is always something of a dice roll — far more than standard MLB free agents, where precedent is more abundant. Yamamoto lacks any true comparables in terms of market context seasons, but the demand for him should be fierce.
4. Julio Urias, SP, Dodgers
Eligible for qualifying offer
To call the 2023 season an “uneven” one for Urias would be a bit of an understatement. The southpaw got out to a strong start through his first four turns on the mound, stumbled badly over his next five appearances, and hit the injured list with a hamstring strain. Urias was set to return after just a few weeks but suffered a setback and wound up missing nearly two months with the injury. Upon his return, he was rocked for five runs in three innings, sending his ERA ballooning to 4.94. He was dominant for his next two turns (one run in 12 innings with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio) … then blown up for eight runs in Baltimore.
The pendulum swung back in the other direction following that outing, and Urias is still on the upswing. In his past five starts, he’s posted a 2.03 ERA. Overall, Urias has a 4.15 ERA on the season and a 3.88 ERA since returning from the injured list. Much of the damage done against him this season has been confined to five brutal outings.
Urias isn’t a power arm. He’s averaging 92.9 mph on his fastball this season — a career-low, but barely down from the 93.1 mph he averaged in 2022 when he posted a 2.16 ERA in 175 frames. He’s never been a huge strikeout pitcher, and this year’s 24.1% rate is in line with his previous levels: solidly above average, but far from elite. However, he’s always boasted exceptional command, and his 4.9% walk rate in 2023 is the best of his career. His walk rate ranks 10th among the 93 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 100 innings this season and is only 0.1% behind the three pitchers ahead of him on the list (Joe Ryan, Miles Mikolas, Zack Wheeler).
Urias is a tough free agent to peg. From 2018-22, he logged a brilliant 2.61 ERA in 499 1/3 innings, but due largely to a .252 BABIP and 79.8% strand rate, fielding-independent metrics were far less bullish (3.42 FIP, 3.80 SIERA). And, because of early-career shoulder surgery, Urias’ workload was limited aggressively until the 2021 season. He’s only made 30 starts in a season twice (2021 and 2022), and he won’t reach that level in 2023. Urias was also arrested in May 2019 after video reportedly showed him shoving a female companion to the ground. Major League Baseball subsequently suspended him for 20 games under the joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Though it was several years ago, that still figures to weigh into the evaluation process for many teams.
The biggest factor Urias will have on his side in free agency will be age. Because he debuted as a 19-year-old, he’s reaching the open market at just 27 years of age. He won’t turn 28 until next August. Because of that youth, Urias could be in line for a lengthier contract than the standard pitcher, which is why he and Yamamoto stand as the top non-Ohtani pitchers on this ranking. Even an eight-year deal would only run through the left-hander’s age-34 season.
5. Matt Chapman, 3B, Blue Jays
Eligible for qualifying offer
Chapman’s first month of the 2023 season was something to behold. When I wrote about his brilliant start to the season in early May, the two-time Platinum Glove winner was raking at a .338/.425/.579 clip. He’d “only” homered five times in six weeks but was already up to 17 doubles. As noted at the time, he’d struck out at a considerably lower rate than past seasons in April but had begun to swing and miss more in May. “If Chapman can avoid allowing his recent uptick in whiffs to snowball, then a return to peak levels or even the establishment of a new peak output is firmly in play,” I wrote at the time.
Unfortunately — the whiffs indeed snowballed. Chapman fanned at just a 22.8% clip through the end of April, but he’s gone down on strikes in 29.5% of his plate appearances since that time. Since that look at Chapman’s sensational start to the season … he’s batted .212/.302/.373 (88 wRC+).
On the whole, Chapman’s season has still been productive. His .250/.339/.435 slash is 15% better than league average, by measure of wRC+. He’s ripped 15 home runs, 35 doubles and a triple in 507 plate appearances and drawn walks at a very strong 11% clip. More encouraging is the fact that when Chapman makes contact, he’s absolutely scorching the ball. This year’s 93.7 mph average exit velocity is in the 97th percentile of MLB hitters. Only Aaron Judge and Matt Olson have put a higher percentage of their batted balls in play at 95 mph or more than Chapman’s outrageous 57.2%.
That batted-ball profile will undoubtedly intrigue many teams. Chapman will be viewed as something of an “upside” play with the bat, which is a strange way to characterize someone who we’re ranking fifth in earning power among this year’s free agents. That said, Chapman’s power, ability to draw walks and elite defense give him a high floor, and the elite level of his contact and his prior track record suggest something closer to an MVP-level ceiling. Defensive Runs Saved credits Chapman at +11 this year, while Outs Above Average is at +4. He’s never ranked as a negative in either category.
Both Trevor Story (six years, $140MM) and Dansby Swanson (seven years, $177MM) secured deals well north of $100MM due in large part to their strong gloves and offensive ceilings. Kris Bryant landed $182MM coming off a comparable (albeit better) offensive year — despite lacking anything close to Chapman’s defensive value. Story and Swanson got those contracts despite having turned down qualifying offers. Chapman will turn down a QO as well, and even with the way his bat has sputtered since the first month of the season, he’ll still have a case to end up somewhere in this general range.
6. Jordan Montgomery, SP, Rangers
Ineligible for qualifying offer
Few pitchers have elevated their stock more than Montgomery in recent seasons. The 30-year-old southpaw — 31 in December — missed most of the 2018-19 seasons due to Tommy John surgery and posted a 5.11 ERA in 10 starts during the shortened 2020 campaign. Montgomery’s strikeout, walk and grounder rates all remained sharp during that ugly season, though, creating some optimism that he could yet bounce back.
He’s done more than bounce back in the three years since. Montgomery reestablished himself as a viable big league starter in 2021, but he’s steadily elevated himself to No. 2-3 starter status — and he only seems to be getting better. Dating back to 2021, Montgomery has piled up 482 2/3 innings and recorded an impressive 3.49 ERA with a 22.8% strikeout rate, 6.3% walk rate, 45.5% grounder rate and just 1.01 HR/9. He spent two weeks on the Covid-related injured list in 2021 but has otherwise avoided the IL entirely since returning from Tommy John surgery.
The 2023 season, in particular, is shaping up to be the best of Montgomery’s career. He’s posted a minuscule 1.73 ERA in four starts since being traded from the Cardinals to the Rangers, dropping his season-long mark to a career-best 3.12. Montgomery’s 93.6 mph average fastball is the best of his career. He’s striking hitters out at only a league-average level but also limiting walks at a considerably better-than-average rate and inducing grounders at an above-average clip.
Montgomery may not stand out in any one way, but he boasts average or better skills across the board and has shaken off that early ligament replacement surgery to establish himself as a durable mid-rotation starter. His results, peripherals and general durability are all superior to those of Jameson Taillon (four years, $68MM) and Taijuan Walker (four years, $72MM) last offseason. Because he was traded midseason, he can’t receive a qualifying offer.
Many will be tempted to lump Montgomery into the Walker/Taillon bucket, but he’s been the best pitcher of that trio and is heading into free agency on a high note. Taillon and Walker feel like more of a floor than anything else for Montgomery, who ought to be able to command a fifth guaranteed year. With a strong and healthy finish to the season, he could secure a nine-figure deal.
7. Aaron Nola, SP, Phillies
Eligible for qualifying offer
Nola, who turned 30 this summer, has been a standard of durability for the past six years. He hasn’t gone on the injured list with a non-virus issue since 2017. No pitcher has started more games or logged more innings since the start of 2018. For the bulk of that time, he has paired that league-best durability with at least high-end #2 starter results.
The right-hander has six sub-4.00 ERA seasons under his belt, including a 3.25 mark over 205 innings a season ago. From a run prevention perspective, he’s struggling through a relative down year in 2023. Nola has allowed 4.49 earned runs per nine through 26 appearances. The longball has been the big culprit, as he has already surrendered a personal-high 29 homers in 160 1/3 innings (1.63 HR/9).
Nola has lost a few punchouts as well, although he’s still missing bats at an above-average rate. His 25.2% strikeout percentage is his lowest rate in six years but above the 22% league mark for starters. While his whiffs were way down early in the season, he has a characteristic 28.2% strikeout rate going back to the start of June. The homers have become even more of an issue as the summer has drawn on, but Nola’s strikeout and walk profile of the past three months has resembled that of his entire career.
A pitcher’s home run rate can vary season-to-season. Nola’s ground-ball percentages have nosedived over the past couple years, though. This looks as if it’ll be his second campaigns in the last three years with a middling ERA, as he posted a 4.63 mark in 2021. Nola’s ERA has been above estimators like FIP and SIERA for three years running. Will teams attribute that primarily to poor luck and the lackluster defenses the Phils have turn out behind him, or to something in Nola’s repertoire that makes him more hittable than his strikeout and walk profile would suggest?
The Phils and Nola had some extension conversations during the spring but didn’t appear to get close to a deal. He’ll receive and reject a qualifying offer. A five or six year deal topping nine figures should still be attainable, but it’d be easier to project Nola approaching or beating the $162MM which Carlos Rodon received last winter were it not for the home run concerns.
8. Lucas Giolito, SP, Angels
Ineligible for qualifying offer
Aside from the unique cases of Ohtani and Yamamoto, Giolito was the top pitcher in our late-June rankings. The right-hander was sitting on a 3.41 ERA at the time but has allowed a 5.92 mark in nine starts since that point. That’s primarily a reflection of two absolute clunkers — an eight-run drubbing by the Mets on July 18 and nine runs at the hands of the Braves during his first start as an Angel on August 2.
Largely because of those outings, Giolito’s season ERA has jumped to 4.32. Home runs have been an issue, particularly since he landed in Anaheim, but the rest of his profile is generally solid. Giolito hasn’t maintained the form he flashed from 2019-20, when he struck out a third of opponents in consecutive seasons with a sub-3.50 ERA. He now looks the part of a solid #3 starter, fanning a quarter of opponents against an 8.2% walk rate while averaging just under six innings per start.
His velocity is right in line with last year’s mark. His 12.2% swinging strike rate — while down from its 2019-21 peak — is a bit better than average. While Giolito’s small sample ERA with the Angels sits at 6.67, his repertoire, whiffs and control are all in line with his early-season work in Chicago. It’s likely teams will consider his tough first month in Orange County a blip and more or less continue to view him as an above-average, durable starting pitcher.
Giolito turned 29 last month. He’s a year younger than Nola, Snell and Montgomery but markedly older than Urias and Yamamoto. Since he was traded midseason, clubs wouldn’t have to forfeit a draft choice to sign him (as they would for Snell, Nola and Urias). While the past month has been a disaster for the Angels, Giolito’s free agent stock shouldn’t be much different than it was six weeks ago. Given his age, a six-year deal still seems plausible.
9. Blake Snell, SP, Padres
Eligible for qualifying offer
Snell, the 2018 American League Cy Young winner, has become the veritable embodiment of the “mercurial” and “volatile” adjectives that are often used to describe pitchers. The 30-year-old looked lost early in the season, logging a 5.40 ERA and 13.4% walk rate in his first nine starts. Since then, he’s been perhaps the most dominant pitcher in baseball. Over his past 17 starts, Snell has pitched 97 innings with a 1.48 ERA.
One might be tempted to assume that Snell has corrected the command troubles that dragged him down early on — but that’s not the case. Snell has continued walking more than 13% of his opponents during this stretch, with the primary difference being a massive spike in strikeouts (from 23.8% up to 34.8%) and grounders (37% to 49.7%). Snell has scaled back the usage of his heater in that time, deferring to more changeups and curveballs. The formula has worked beautifully. Snell ranks seventh in the Majors in Baseball-Reference’s version of WAR (3.7) and trails only Arizona’s Zac Gallen with 4.8 RA9-WAR.
Ace-level results from Snell aren’t exactly anything new. Again, he’s a former Cy Young winner. However, Snell has struggled to stay healthy, and his penchant for deep counts and walking batters has frequently led to early exits from games. Snell has averaged under 5 1/3 innings per start in his big league career. That’s not exactly a reflection of the Rays’ affinity for quick hooks on their starting pitchers either; Snell’s 5.17 innings per start since his trade to the Padres is nearly identical to his 5.15 innings per start in Tampa Bay. Even during this year’s dominant effort, he’s averaging just over 5 1/3 innings per outing.
In terms of his per-inning performance and his overall raw stuff, Snell is one of the most appealing pitchers in baseball. But he’s also lacked both consistency and efficiency throughout his career, and he’s been on the injured list due to an adductor strain (twice), a fractured toe, loose bodies in his elbow and gastrointeritis since winning that 2018 Cy Young Award. This year’s 142 innings are already the second-highest total of his career. Snell will also have to contend with a qualifying offer, which he’ll surely reject in search of a longer-term deal.
Snell undoubtedly has his flaws, but over the past calendar year he’s made 33 starts and posted a 2.51 ERA with a 31.8% strikeout rate, 12.4% walk rate, 42.8% grounder rate and just 0.84 homers per nine innings. He’s pitched 183 innings in that time — just shy of 5 2/3 frames per outing. There’s plenty of reason for caution, but Snell at his best is a legitimate Game 1 starter in a postseason series. Volatility notwithstanding, he could land a nine-figure deal of five or more years in length.
10. Josh Hader, RP, Padres
Eligible for qualifying offer
While some of the names on this list have struggled since the June edition of our Power Rankings, Hader has been the opposite. He’s tossed 16 shutout innings since that day, allowing just six hits and punching out 44.6% of his opponents. The 29-year-old now boasts a career-low 0.81 ERA in 44 2/3 innings on the season. He’s carrying a 39.9% strikeout rate, and while his 13.5% walk rate remains high, that’s easier to get away with when two out of every five hitters that come to the plate fall to a strikeout.
There was some concern surrounding Hader as he slumped in the weeks preceding and immediately following last year’s trade to the Padres. He righted the ship following a six-run meltdown in late August, however. Since shaking off that disastrous outing, Hader has pitched 61 1/3 innings of 0.74 ERA ball with a 39.7% strikeout rate and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s still primarily a fly-ball pitcher, but Hader’s 36.3% ground-ball rate is a pretty big jump from the 27.4% mark he posted from 2018-22. He’s using the sinker he implemented in 2022 more than ever this year, and while his 2.6% homer-to-flyball rate is bound to regress, this year’s pristine 0.20 HR/9 is also at least partially influenced by that uptick in grounders.
Hader will receive and reject a qualifying offer. That’s a risk for most relievers, but it’s a slam dunk for Hader, who could become the highest-paid relief pitcher ever within the next few months. He’ll be a year older in free agency than Edwin Diaz was when he set the reliever record on a five-year, $102MM contract (which includes multiple opt-outs). That slight age gap will matter, but Hader has the longer and steadier track record of the two and could benefit from his handedness. Barring a catastrophic collapse or a disastrously timed injury, Hader will take aim at making Diaz’s record and have a good chance at making it short-lived.
Honorable Mentions (listed alphabetically): Harrison Bader (OF), Jeimer Candelario (3B), Sonny Gray (SP), Teoscar Hernandez (OF/DH), Shota Imanaga (SP)**, Michael Lorenzen (SP), Yuki Matsui (RP)**, Eduardo Rodriguez (SP)*, Jorge Soler (DH/OF)*, Marcus Stroman (SP)*
A’s Owner: “I Have Not Considered Selling The Team”
Athletics owner John Fisher has become the subject of increasing levels of ire from a fanbase that has engineered “reverse boycotts” this season and initiated “sell the team” chants at parks throughout the league when the A’s are playing on the road. The vitriol is understandable from a group of fans that is none too pleased with the manner in which the team’s ostensible exit from Oakland has been ushered in, but Fisher unsurprisingly told Mick Akers of the Las Vegas Review-Journal yesterday that those cries have largely fallen on deaf ears.
“I have not considered selling the team,” says Fisher, noting that he and partner Lew Wolff have owned the club since 2005. “… Our goal since then has been to find a new home and build a new home for our team.”
Fisher praised the “great success stories” of new ballparks elsewhere in the league, pointing specifically to Baltimore’s Camden Yards and Atlanta’s Truist Park. He demurred when asked whether the $380MM in public funding to which the state of Nevada and Clark County have committed would meaningfully impact player payroll, instead touting how much his own family plans to invest in the stadium.
Without delving into specifics, Fisher told Akers he “(expects) that our revenues will be considerably higher in our new ballpark than they have been to date, and that that will enable us to have a higher payroll.” Later in the interview, he claimed that the A’s expect an operating loss of $40MM this season and asserted the organization lost around $175MM during the 2020 pandemic season.
Fisher’s claim of the organization’s dire financial circumstances come at a time when the A’s have slashed spending and trotted out one of the worst rosters in recent history. The A’s are on pace for a 47-115 season that’d match the ’19 Orioles for the second-worst record of the past two decades.
The club is less than three years removed from a trio of consecutive playoff appearances, headlined by back-to-back 97-win rosters in 2018-19. Those teams were dismantled via a series of trades as the A’s sliced player payroll from a franchise-record $92MM range in 2019 to just under $57MM this season, as tabulated by Cot’s Baseball Contracts. As the quality of the on-field product has dropped and the franchise has explored relocation, the fanbase has increasingly stayed away. ESPN calculates the A’s average home attendance in 2023 at a little under 10,500 fans. That’s easily the lowest in the majors and just over half the approximate 20,500 average from 2019 — the last time the A’s had a playoff team in a season with fan attendance.
Fisher told Akers that the new stadium should allow the A’s to “keep our young talent around, as opposed to sadly seeing them go to other teams.” The A’s, of course, have regularly traded players to other clubs as their young talent reaches arbitration, often lamenting that the team’s market size, stadium and television contract don’t allow them to retain core players. The open question, naturally, is one of how strongly the A’s have tried to retain said talent. Oakland hasn’t brokered an extension with a pre-arbitration player in nearly a decade. Sean Doolitte’s four-year, $10MM contract was the last extension of its kind.
The A’s reportedly put forth an offer to Matt Chapman at one point, and perhaps they’ve made other attempts in the nine years since Doolittle signed his contract. But it’s difficult to imagine they’ve been as aggressive in trying to lock up homegrown talent as other small-market organizations like the Rays, Guardians, Brewers and Pirates have. The A’s have had dozens of high-quality players graduate from their farm over the years, and the lack of subsequent contract extensions is patently bizarre — particularly for an owner that laments his ability to retain stars and inability to field a competitive payroll; most early career extensions are signed at well below-market values. Perhaps the A’s don’t want to risk being locked into a long-term deal, but the potential “burden” of being bogged down by a pre-arb extension doesn’t seem any more glaring than signing an oft-injured Trevor Rosenthal to a one-year, $11MM pact a couple years back.
Rosenthal aside, the franchise has generally done little on the free agent market. The organization’s largest contract — a $66MM extension for Eric Chavez — predated the Fisher/Wolff ownership group. A $36MM guarantee for Yoenis Cespedes shortly after he defected from Cuba stands as their largest contract of the last 18 years. Among traditional MLB free agents, Billy Butler ($30MM), Ryan Madson ($22MM) and Scott Kazmir ($22MM) are the only players to whom they’ve given a contract exceeding $20MM.
As for the relocation process itself, Fisher told Akers that the A’s have officially submitted their application to MLB. They’ll need approval of 75% of ownership groups to sign off on the move to Vegas. That’s widely expected to be granted. Fisher indicated to Tim Keown of ESPN this evening that the vote has not yet been scheduled.
The A’s lease at the Coliseum runs through the 2024 campaign. The new stadium in Las Vegas isn’t expected to be ready before ’28, leaving the franchise with some uncertainty about their home in the intervening three seasons.
Blake Treinen Begins Rehab Assignment
Dodgers righty Blake Treinen began a minor league rehab assignment at the team’s Arizona Complex League affiliate on Tuesday and is now headed to Triple-A Oklahoma City to continue that rehab, tweets Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times. However, manager Dave Roberts conceded that it’s a “long shot” that the former relief ace will be able to contribute for the Dodgers down the stretch.
Treinen, 35, underwent shoulder surgery back in November and is already passed the 10-month recovery window the Dodgers laid out at the time of surgery. The right-hander said earlier this month that he’d been throwing bullpen sessions and remained optimistic about his chances of returning before the end of the season. With Treinen now heading to Triple-A, he’ll have a 30-day rehab window in the minors.
Treinen spent the majority of the 2022 season on the injured list, pitching just five innings, and hasn’t taken a big league mound since Sept. 5 of last year. His 2021 season was nothing short of elite, however. The veteran righty posted a sparkling 1.99 ERA with a hefty 29.7% strikeout rate, a solid 8.7% walk rate and a strong 52.6% ground-ball rate in 72 1/3 innings.
A sixth-place finisher in 2018 AL Cy Young voting when he saved 38 games with a 0.78 ERA for the A’s, Treinen has routinely been a source of missed bats and grounders when healthy. He’s worked in high-leverage roles for the Nationals, A’s and Dodgers in a nine-year big league career, logging a 2.86 ERA with 87 holds and 79 saves in 503 innings at the big league level.
Roberts, of course, chose not to completely close the door on a potential Treinen return, and it’s further possible that the right-hander could return at some point during the postseason, if he’s indeed healthy enough to do so. Treinen is one of nine relievers on the injured list with the Dodgers, but Roberts still boasts a strong back end of the bullpen led by Evan Phillips, Brusdar Graterol, Caleb Ferguson and resurgent righty Ryan Brasier (1.11 ERA in 24 1/3 innings since joining Los Angeles).
Even if Treinen’s unable to return this season, his progress in Oklahoma City will be worth watching closely. The Dodgers hold a club option on Treinen that’ll be valued between $1MM and $7MM. Presumably, given Treinen’s lack of innings this year, it will land at or near the bottom of that range.