Nationals Notes: Ruiz, Arano, Harris
The Nationals’ eight-year, $50MM contract extension with catcher Keibert Ruiz was, somewhat incredibly, the first time the team has agreed to a long-term deal with a pre-arbitration player, Andrew Golden of the Washington Post points out. General manger Mike Rizzo noted at the press conference over the weekend that while it was the first such time the team had reached a deal, it was not the first time they’d attempted to get a contract of this nature worked out (Twitter link via MASNsports.com’s Mark Zuckerman).
As Golden writes, Ruiz drew praise from Rizzo, manager Dave Martinez and teammates (including Cade Cavalli) for his leadership prowess in addition to his tools behind the plate. Perhaps of greater note for Nats fans, Golden notes that Rizzo suggested there are other candidates for this type of deal on the roster and said that there’s no real limit to the number of these type of deals the team can pursue. The team’s unsteady ownership situation and years-long battle over television rights fees with the Orioles loom over any major financial decisions, but that didn’t stand in the way of Ruiz’s eight-year deal. Only time will tell whether subsequent extensions for the Nats’ young core will follow, but it’s a notable shift for an organization that has previously been unable to hammer out this type of early-career pact with key players.
A bit more on the Nats…
- The Nationals are shutting righty Victor Arano down for 10 days due to an impingement in his right shoulder, tweets Golden. He’ll be reevaluated at that point. The 28-year-old Arano returned to the Majors in 2022 after a three-year layoff that was partially attributable to elbow surgery. He tossed 42 frames for the Nats, working to a 4.50 ERA but posting much more promising rate stats: a 23.5% strikeout rate, a 6.4% walk rate, a 51.6% grounder rate and 1.07 HR/9. Fielding-independent metrics like FIP (3.71) and particularly SIERA (3.14) felt he was vastly better than his earned run average would otherwise indicate. Arano was very likely ticketed for a spot in Washington’s Opening Day bullpen, but his availability for the season is now clearly in doubt. Notably, his 2022 season ended in early September due to a strain in this same shoulder.
- Any open spots in the bullpen could create opportunities for the remaining non-roster pitchers in camp. One who’s garnered some attention from Nats brass thus far, per Jessica Camareto of MLB.com, is right-hander Hobie Harris. The former Yankees 31st-round pick is on his fourth organization in pro ball after signing with Washington on a minor league deal this offseason, and he’s tossed five shutout innings with one hit, no walks and six punchouts. Martinez spoke with Camareto about Harris’ impressive splitter, his game-planning and his command so far in spring training. “I love the fact that he comes in there and pounds the strike zone,” said Martinez. “When you’re in the bullpen, I always tell them all the time, ‘Walks are not your friends. Those walks kind of beat you up.'” Command has been an issue for Harris in the past, evidenced by a 12.5% walk rate in two Triple-A seasons, but he still pitched to a pristine 2.04 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate in 53 innings for the Brewers’ Triple-A club in 2022.
Trevor Bauer Signs With NPB’s Yokohama DeNA BayStars
7:06pm: The BayStars have officially announced Bauer’s signing on a one-year contract.
2:41pm: Free-agent right-hander Trevor Bauer has agreed to a one-year, $4MM deal with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball, as first reported by Japan’s Sankei Sports (Twitter link). Bauer had previously been suspended for 324 games under MLB’s joint domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy. Back in December, commissioner Rob Manfred announced that Bauer’s suspension had been reduced, via appeal, to the 194 games he’d already served. He was immediately reinstated, and the Dodgers released him the following month.
For the past two months, Bauer has been a free agent who’s free to sign with any Major League team for the league minimum, as the Dodgers are on the hook for the remainder of his 2023 salary under the terms of the previous three-year, $102MM contract to which they signed him. No team has chosen to do so. It appears Bauer will now head overseas to pitch in Japan’s NPB, widely regarded as the second-best league in the world behind MLB, perhaps with an eye toward eventually engineering a return to Major League Baseball down the road.
When the Dodgers originally signed Bauer, he was heading into his age-30 season on the heels of a National League Cy Young win during the shortened 2020 season. Then a member of the Reds, Bauer tossed 73 innings of 1.73 ERA ball, striking out an elite 36% of his opponents against a strong 6.1% walk rate along the way. He got out to a strong start through 17 starts with the Dodgers (2.59 ERA 31.7% strikeout rate, 8.6% walk rate) and, over the course of his past 569 big league innings, carries a 3.07 earned run average.
Bauer’s Dodgers tenure came to an abrupt halt when, in June 2021, it came to light that a woman in California had filed a restraining order against him and accused him of sexual assault. An investigation by both Major League Baseball and the Los Angeles County District Attorney’s office ensued. Bauer spent the remainder of the 2021 season on paid administrative leave — a mutually agreed-upon status between MLB and the MLBPA that is not considered punitive in nature. (Administrative leave is common while players are being investigated under the domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy.) During this time, two other women, both in Ohio, came forth with similar allegations against Bauer. The alleged incidents in those complaints came prior to the alleged incidents in California.
In August of 2021, the California plaintiff’s request for a long-term restraining order against Bauer was denied. A judge ruled that Bauer did not pose an ongoing threat to his accuser. Months later, the L.A. district attorney declined to pursue criminal charges. While the DA did not declare Bauer’s innocence, the department stated: “After a thorough review of the available evidence, including the civil restraining order proceedings, witness statements and the physical evidence, the People are unable to prove the relevant charges beyond a reasonable doubt.”
Major League Baseball’s domestic violence, sexual assault and child abuse policy does not require criminal charges to be enforced, however. Manfred, upon his own review of the evidence, opined that Bauer had indeed violated the policy and levied that record 324-game suspension, which was reduced to 194 games back in December. Immediately in the wake of Bauer’s reinstatement, reports emerged that several teams were completely uninterested in pursuing Bauer — the Yankees, Mets, Padres, Twins and Guardians among them.
Giants Shut Brandon Crawford Down Due To Knee Discomfort
The Giants announced a slew of injury updates Monday, revealing that shortstop Brandon Crawford will be shut down from all baseball activity for the next week due to discomfort in his left knee. The team added that lefty Thomas Szapucki is seeking a second opinion on a left upper arm injury and that third baseman David Villar has been diagnosed with a mild strain in his left hip flexor. Two-way player Ronald Guzman is slated for an MRI after experiencing left forearm discomfort yesterday, and outfielder Luis Gonzalez is getting a second opinion from a spine specialist due to ongoing discomfort in his back.
Crawford, 36, is coming off his worst showing at the plate since the 2019 season, having batted just .231/.308/.344 last season (87 wRC+). That same left knee twice sent Crawford to the injured list last summer, costing him about a month overall. He was limited to 118 games and 458 plate appearances on the year. The Giants haven’t indicated whether Crawford might be sidelined to begin the 2023 season. If he’s able to return to baseball activity next Monday, he’d have 10 days to build up in advance of the Giants’ season opener on March 30.
In the event that Crawford does need to miss some time, Thairo Estrada could move over from second base to cover the shortstop position in the short-term. Estrada, who hit .260/.322/.400 in 541 plate appearances in 2022, spent 286 innings at shortstop last season — second-most on the team behind Crawford. Donovan Walton might be another option were he healthy, but he’s expected to be out until at least May as he continues recovering from last September’s shoulder surgery. Minor leaguers Casey Schmitt, 24, and Brett Wisely, 23, could also be options after posting strong showings in Double-A last year. Wisely is already on the 40-man roster. Schmitt would need to be added.
Villar, the Giants say, will be reevaluated daily, so it’s possible he’s only looking at a short-term absence. He entered camp as the favorite to win the Giants’ third base job this spring after hitting .231/.331/.455 through 181 plate appearances as a rookie in 2022, though he’s just 1-for-14 so far in Cactus League play. If Villar’s hip injury proves to be enough to keep him out, the Giants have veterans J.D. Davis and Wilmer Flores as options at the hot corner. Flores could also factor in at second base in the event that Estrada slides over to shortstop to cover for Crawford.
As for the other injuries, more information will be available following additional testing. Szapucki was originally said by manager Gabe Kapler to be dealing with elbow discomfort, but the Giants’ release today instead specified an “upper arm” injury. The former Mets southpaw, acquired alongside Davis in the deal sending Darin Ruf to Queens, tossed 13 2/3 innings of 1.98 ERA ball with the Giants following that trade and worked to a 3.11 ERA in 72 1/3 Triple-A frames between the two organizations last season. The Giants are six- or seven-deep in big league starters — Logan Webb, Alex Wood, Alex Cobb, Anthony DeSclafani, Sean Manaea, Ross Stripling, Jakob Junis — but Szapucki represents depth both for the rotation and the bullpen.
It was already known that Gonzalez’s back injury would cause him to miss the beginning the season. As for Guzman, the former Rangers first base prospect has been hoping to prove himself a viable presence on the mound, but he’s been tagged for three runs in 3 1/3 innings this spring and is now heading for imaging after the ominous complaint of forearm discomfort.
Poll: Who Will Win The AL Central?
The Guardians rode a late surge in 2022 to a runaway division title in the American League Central, trouncing the second-place White Sox and third-place Twins by 11 and 14 games, respectively. It was a testament both to the development of several key young players in Cleveland as well as some staggering injury woes both in Chicago and Minnesota. Further down the division ranks, the rebuilds in Detroit and Kansas City both hit roadblocks, with the Tigers and Royals losing 96 and 97 games, respectively.
There was plenty of offseason activity throughout the division, however, and we can expect to see several touted prospects make their debuts in 2023 as well. Will that change the outlook? Let’s take a quick look at each team heading into the season.
Cleveland Guardians (92-70 in 2022)
The Guardians hit the second-fewest home runs of any team in baseball last season but nonetheless ranked 15th in runs scored, offsetting their lack of power with far and away the lowest team strikeout rate in baseball (18.2%). The pitching staff posted a collective 3.47 ERA, ranking sixth in the Majors, and while they were only 12th in strikeout rate (23.2%), they also had the game’s fifth-best walk rate (7.3%). Cleveland also dominated in one other key area: health. Guardians players spent the fewest cumulative days on the injured list of any team in the Majors at just 709, per Spotrac. The second-lowest team, the Orioles, clocked in at 790. Cleveland had less than one-third of the IL days of MLB’s two worst teams in that regard: the Reds (2,638) and the Twins (2,363).
Over the winter, Cleveland signed Josh Bell and Mike Zunino, adding some thump to the lineup. Zunino, in particular is an all-or-nothing hitter at the plate, but Guardians catchers in 2022 were the least-productive in the American League, so he should be an upgrade over last year’s backstops. Top prospects like catcher Bo Naylor, outfielder George Valera and infielder Brayan Rocchio are among the many hitters on the cusp of the Majors and should all be key reinforcements as Cleveland defends its crown.
Chicago White Sox (81-81 in 2022)
The White Sox were tanked by key injuries in 2022, with each of Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Lance Lynn, Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Yasmani Grandal, Michael Kopech, Aaron Bummer and Garrett Crochet spending at least a month on the shelf. The Sox ranked in the bottom third of the league in homers, the bottom half in runs scored and were also a middle-of-the-pack club in terms of rotation and bullpen ERA. Defensively, they were a mess, thanks in no small part to the outfield alignment. The Sox ranked 23rd in the Majors in Outs Above Average (-16), 27th in Defensive Runs Saved (-35) and dead last in Ultimate Zone Rating (-42.2).
The decision to let Jose Abreu walk in free agency was surely a blow to the clubhouse and lineup alike, but it’ll also allow Andrew Vaughn to slide from right field to his natural position, first base. Jimenez can spend significant time at DH, too, now that Andrew Benintendi has been signed to play left field. The Sox didn’t do much to address right field, where Gavin Sheets will try to fend off top prospect Oscar Colas, who should debut early in the season. They’ll hope that Mike Clevinger can replace the resurgent Johnny Cueto in the rotation, and Elvis Andrus is back to handle second base. All of baseball is pulling for closer Liam Hendriks as he battles cancer, and while his health takes priority above all else, there’s no getting around the fact that his absence hurts the relief corps as the Sox look for better results in 2023.
Minnesota Twins (78-84 in 2022)
The Twins were the opposite of the Guardians in terms of player health in 2022, and they’ll hope more than anything that their roster can remain on the field more in 2023. Even with all their health woes, the Twins still ranked in the top half of MLB in home runs and placed 16th in runs scored. Their rotation’s 4.11 ERA was 19th in MLB, while the bullpen’s ERA sat right at MLB’s midpoint.
Minnesota was the most active team in the division this offseason, improbably retaining Carlos Correa after an unprecedented free-agent saga saw deals with the Giants and Mets fall through. The Twins also traded star infielder Luis Arraez to land righty Pablo Lopez and a pair of prospects from the Marlins, giving them the deepest rotation they’ve had in some time — health permitting. Lopez, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle, Joe Ryan, a returning Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober is a strong sextet around which to build the staff. Meanwhile, the Twins keyed in on defense, depth and defensive versatility with their other acquisitions. Catcher Christian Vazquez and outfielders Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor are all standouts with the glove (to say nothing of Gallo’s obvious power potential). Kyle Farmer and Donovan Solano can play all over the infield (and, in Farmer’s place, even behind the plate in a pinch).
The bullpen was left as is, with the Twins believing deadline pickup Jorge Lopez, sophomore Jovani Moran (who excelled late in the season) and a returning Jorge Alcala can provide the necessary boost alongside breakout star Jhoan Duran. Oft-injured top prospect Royce Lewis should return this summer, and the Twins could also get late looks at infielders like Edouard Julien and Brooks Lee.
Detroit Tigers (66-96 in 2022)
The Tigers’ 2021-22 offseason was headlined by acquisitions of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez, but by the end of the regular season those headlines shifted to a front office shuffle. The Tigers’ poor results led ownership to oust GM Al Avila and hire Giants GM Scott Harris as the new president of baseball operations. The 2022 Tigers saw key injuries to the entire core of their promising young rotation, with Casey Mize having Tommy John surgery, Tarik Skubal requiring flexor surgery and Matt Manning missing substantial time due to shoulder troubles. Center fielder Riley Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson didn’t develop as hoped in their rookie seasons. Baez and Rodriguez, meanwhile, didn’t live up to their respective contracts.
In Harris’ first offseason on the job, he traded relievers Gregory Soto and Joe Jimenez to add some near-MLB talent, including outfielder Matt Vierling, infielder Nick Maton and catcher Donny Sands. Free agents Matthew Boyd and Michael Lorenzen were signed to help solidify a rotation that’ll also get righty Spencer Turnbull back after he missed the 2022 season recovering from 2021 Tommy John surgery. It was the type of modest offseason that’s generally expected for a newly hired baseball operations leader as they take time to get a feel for the organization before making more sweeping changes. Prospect-wise, pitcher Wilmer Flores and third baseman/outfielder Justyn-Henry Malloy are among the names who could potentially make their debuts this season.
Kansas City Royals (65-97 in 2022)
The Royals had their own front office shakeup, as president of baseball ops Dayton Moore was dismissed after more than 15 years atop the front office. He was replaced by his own longtime top lieutenant J.J. Picollo. That decision came on the heels of a 2022 season in which the Royals, who’ve been focusing their rebuild on drafting and developing college pitchers, posted the fourth-worst rotation ERA in MLB (4.76). Right-hander Brady Singer had a breakout season, but none of Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar or Kris Bubic has found much success in the big leagues, and recent No. 4 overall pick Asa Lacy hasn’t progressed in the minors.
Given the manner in which the pitching stalled out, the Royals added veterans Jordan Lyles and Ryan Yarbrough while also re-signing Zack Greinke. That’ll raise the floor of the rotation while perhaps still allowing for some of Lynch, Kowar, Bubic, Jonathan Heasley or Carlos Hernandez to force their way into the picture. In the lineup, they’ll hope for further steps forward from a promising core of hitters including Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino, Nick Pratto and MJ Melendez. Youngsters like second baseman Michael Massey, outfielder Drew Waters and infielder/outfielder Nate Eaton should all get prominent looks in 2023 as well.
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Projection systems are inherently divisive, so take this for what it’s worth, but FanGraphs gives the Guardians a slight edge on the Twins in 2023, with the White Sox in third place, followed by the Royals and the Tigers. Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA, meanwhile, projects the Twins ever so slightly ahead of Cleveland, followed by Chicago in third place, Detroit in fourth and Kansas City in fifth.
Who do you think will win the AL Central?
Who will win the AL Central in 2023?
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Guardians 41% (4,138)
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Twins 27% (2,703)
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White Sox 22% (2,269)
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Royals 5% (508)
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Tigers 5% (504)
Total votes: 10,122
Harrison Bader Has Oblique Strain, Likely To Open Season On Injured List
TODAY: Speaking with Erik Boland and other reporters today, Boone suggested that Bader will need around six weeks of recovery time, so the outfielder will likely miss the first three weeks of the season.
MARCH 10: Yankees center fielder Harrison Bader has been diagnosed with a strained left oblique, manager Aaron Boone tells Newsday’s Erik Boland (Twitter link). There’s no timetable for his return just yet, but Bader is likely to begin the season on the injured list.
It’s yet another injury blow to a Yankees club that has been beset by health troubles this spring. The Yankees announced just yesterday that all three of Carlos Rodon, Lou Trivino and Tommy Kahnle will open the season on the injured list. Right-hander Frankie Montas, meanwhile, underwent shoulder surgery earlier in camp and is expected to miss the majority of the 2023 season.
Bader’s injury leaves the Yankees without a true center fielder, though both Aaron Hicks and Aaron Judge have ample experience at the position. Judge was the preferred option in center last year prior to Bader’s acquisition and activation from the injured list.
The injury will also likely lead to more outfield time for Giancarlo Stanton, which has already been under discussion. Utilityman Oswaldo Cabrera, who’d been vying for playing time in left field, figures to see an uptick of action in the corners as well. Further down the depth chart, Bader’s absence could lead to increased looks for former top prospect Estevan Florial or perhaps for non-roster invitees Rafael Ortega and/or Willie Calhoun. Ortega, in particular, is a capable center fielder.
It’s a tough start to the year for Bader, who hoped for a healthier 2023 season after a lengthy bout with plantar fasciitis limited him to just 86 games in 2022. The Yankees acquired Bader even while he was on the injured list — sending lefty Jordan Montgomery to the Cardinals — with an eye toward the postseason and toward 2023. Bader struggled through 49 plate appearances down the stretch after being activated in September, but he caught fire during the postseason, batting .333/.429/.833 with five home runs in just 35 plate appearances.
At his best, the 28-year-old Bader is a flat-out elite defender in center field with above-average pop. His offensive profile has changed over the years, as his high-walk and high-strikeout tendencies have given way to more balls in play but fewer walks and, in 2022, less power.
Overall, Bader is a career .245/.317/.405 hitter (97 wRC+), and while injuries have routinely been a problem — in part due to the reckless abandon with which he plays defense — he has clear 20-homer upside if he can remain healthy. Bader’s defensive ratings slipped in 2022, which is perhaps not surprising for a center fielder dealing with a foot injury, but through 3579 career innings in center field, he’s posted 38 Defensive Runs Saved and an even more massive 50 Outs Above Average.
The injury is also unfortunate for Bader on a personal level, as he was surely hoping to play a full slate of games in what will be his final season before reaching the open market as a first-time free agent. A mostly healthy season from Bader could still position him as the top center fielder in what’ll be a thin market at the position next winter. Other center fielders up for free agency include Cody Bellinger, Michael A. Taylor and Enrique Hernandez.
Rangers Trade Mark Mathias To Pirates
March 11: The Rangers announced they’re getting right-hander Ricky DeVito from the Pirates as the player to be named later. DeVito, 24, was acquired from Atlanta in the Richard Rodriguez deal, and worked to a 5.40 ERA across 70 innings at High-A last season (six starts, 29 relief appearances).
March 8: The Rangers announced Wednesday that they’ve traded infielder/outfielder Mark Mathias to the Pirates in exchange for a player to be named later. Texas designated Mathias for assignment over the weekend in order to open a 40-man roster spot for newly signed reliever Will Smith. The Pirates announced that righty Max Kranick, who’s recovering from Tommy John surgery, has been transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster.
Mathias, 28, comes to the Pirates with a minor league option and five years of team control remaining. He’s seen action in part of two big league seasons — 2020 with the Brewers and 2022 with Milwaukee and Texas. He’s logged just 127 plate appearances in that time but carries a solid .256/.307/.462 batting line (114 wRC+) with six homers, six doubles, a 7.1% walk rate and a more troubling 29.1% strikeout rate.
Mathias lost the entire 2021 season to a torn labrum that required shoulder surgery. It was the second shoulder surgery for Mathias, who also had a procedure performed back in his college days. He returned to post a huge .318/.421/.518 batting line in 50 Triple-A games with the Brewers in 2022. Milwaukee also carried him on the big league roster for six games, but Mathias was traded to Texas prior to the deadline in the deal that sent righty Matt Bush to the Brewers.
The versatile Mathias could crack the Pirates’ Opening Day roster in a bench role, though his remaining minor league option means he’s not a lock to do so. Still, he’s played all four infield positions and all three outfield spots in his professional career, albeit with just one lone inning in center field with the Brewers in 2020. He’s moved around the diamond consistently in the Majors, with no more than 51 innings played at any single position (despite a total of 292 defensive innings under his belt).
While he’s never been regarded as a plus defender at any position, Mathias can play pretty much anywhere. He doesn’t have huge power, but he’s a career .286/.377/.466 hitter in 715 Triple-A plate appearances and has stacked up 21 homers, 41 doubles, three triples and 26 steals (in 31 attempts) in 173 total games at that level.
Second base has been Mathias’ most frequent position in the minors, and that happens to be the Pirates’ least-settled spot in the lineup, so he’s a particularly sensible add for Pittsburgh at a low cost of acquisition. He’ll compete with Rodolfo Castro, Ji Hwan Bae and Nick Gonzales for playing time there throughout the remainder of camp.
Rockies Showing Interest In Jurickson Profar
The Rockies, suddenly facing multiple outfield injuries, are showing “real interest” in free-agent outfielder Jurickson Profar, reports Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post (Twitter link). Over the past month, the Rockies have seen Randal Grichuk undergo surgery for a bilateral sports hernia and Sean Bouchard suffer a biceps rupture that’ll require potentially season-ending surgery.
Colorado’s outfield currently projects to include Kris Bryant, Yonathan Daza, Charlie Blackmon and perhaps younger options like Nolan Jones and Brenton Doyle. Prior to the injuries, however, the 36-year-old Blackmon (37 in July) was slated to serve primarily as a designated hitter in 2023. That could still be the case, as Grichuk is expected back relatively early in the season, but the depth in the outfield isn’t a strong point for the Rockies anyhow — particularly with Bouchard facing a lengthy absence.
Bryant, signed to a seven-year, $182MM contract last offseason, was limited to just 42 games last season by a series of back injuries and a bout with plantar fasciitis. Daza, entering his fourth big league season, has never topped 113 games during an MLB campaign. He missed time with a dislocated shoulder in 2022 and a fractured thumb in 2021. Blackmon tore the meniscus in his left knee late in the 2022 season, and Grichuk, as previously noted, is currently on the mend from surgery.
A deal with Profar, then, makes some sense. He’s typically been deployed as a left fielder in recent seasons, which could push Bryant over to right field, where he perhaps uncoincidentally has been seeing increased time this spring after spending all of his time in left field last year. Thomas Harding of MLB.com wrote last week that manager Bud Black approached Bryant about the idea of spending more time in the opposite corner early in spring training, and Bryant is open to the idea.
Profar was an infielder earlier in his career and, at one point, rated as the top prospect in all of baseball while rising through the Rangers’ system as a shortstop. He’s twice had shoulder surgery since that time, however, which eventually prompted a move to the other side of the second base bag. Following a trade to the A’s, Profar developed a case of the yips at second base and was eventually moved to left field, where he’s played almost exclusively with the Padres over the past couple seasons.
Profar hasn’t been a standout performer at the plate, but over the past three seasons he’s combined for a respectable .244/.333/.375 batting line with a 10.8% walk rate and just a 15.4% strikeout rate. He hasn’t hit for much power but has shown strong bat-to-ball skills with a keen eye at the plate. Defensively, his work in outfield has been slightly above-average, per Defensive Runs Saved, and a bit below average, per Statcast. It’s still a relatively new position for him, however, and it’s fair to think that a former plus defender at shortstop could continue to hone his skills in left and become a quality defender there.
The question for the Rockies could come down to one of payroll. Roster Resource projects a $163MM payroll for the Rockies, which is already a franchise record. While Profar’s current asking price isn’t clear, he declined a $7.5MM player option with the Padres following the 2023 season, and The Athletic’s Brendan Kuty recently reported that he was at one point looking for $10MM per season. Whether his asking price has dipped and/or whether the Rockies would meet that level remain to be seen, but the mere fact that they’re showing legitimate interest is an indicator that owner Dick Monfort is at least willing to further boost the currently projected record payroll to at least some extent.
Offseason Review Chat Transcript: Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers are up next in our Offseason In Review series. You can read yesterday’s Brewers offseason review here, and I hosted a Brewers-focused chat for an hour this morning. Click here to read the transcript!
Andrew Painter Diagnosed With UCL Sprain; Ranger Suarez Dealing With Forearm Tightness
Phillies top prospect Andrew Painter, who underwent imaging on his elbow over the weekend after reporting discomfort, has been diagnosed with a “right proximal ulnar collateral ligament sprain,” per the team. He sought a second opinion from surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache, who confirmed the diagnosis. Both the Phillies medical staff and Dr. ElAttrache recommended a four-week shutdown from throwing, after which Painter will begin a “light tossing progression.”
On the one hand, any injury to a pitcher’s UCL is a brutal and ominous blow. The ulnar collateral ligament is the ligament that is replaced during Tommy John surgery, and a sprain indicates some degree of stretching and/or tearing, by definition. That said, surgery for Painter shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion just yet. Dr. ElAttrache is one of the sport’s most prominent surgeons and orthopedic experts, and both he and the team apparently agree that the extent of the sprain is not severe enough to require immediate surgery. Time will tell whether Painter is able to avoid going under the knife, but it’s at least relatively good news that he hasn’t suffered a significant enough tear to wipe out his entire 2023 season just yet.
There are plenty of examples of pitchers avoiding surgery even after being diagnosed with UCL damage — Masahiro Tanaka, Ervin Santana, Anthony DeSclafani and Painter’s own teammate Aaron Nola among them. Of course, it’s only fair to point out that the majority of UCL sprains do ultimately lead to surgery, be it a Tommy John procedure (ligament replacement) or an internal brace of the current ligament, which comes with a shorter recovery time but is only possible for certain sprains (depending on the placement of the tear within the ligament and the severity of the tear).
For now, Painter’s shutdown takes him out of the running for the Phillies’ Opening Day rotation — a competition in which he was a prominent factor despite being just 19 years of age. Painter was the No. 13 overall pick in the 2021 draft and has soared through the Phillies’ system to the cusp of MLB readiness in less than two years’ time. He pitched across three levels in 2022 — Class-A, Class-A Advanced and Double-A — working to a combined 1.56 ERA with a massive 38.7% strikeout rate, a strong 6.2% walk rate and a tiny 0.43 HR/9 mark through 103 2/3 frames. Both Baseball America and MLB.com rank Painter as the game’s best pitching prospect and one of the top six overall prospects in the sport.
It’s not the only bad news on the Phillies’ rotation front, either. Left-hander Ranger Suarez, who’d been on Team Venezuela’s roster in the World Baseball Classic, has left the tournament and returned to the Phillies due to tightness in his left forearm, MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki tweeted this morning. The Phillies believe the injury to be minor and merely exercising caution, but it’s still a notable situation that bears monitoring. He’ll undergo treatment with the club for the time being.
Suarez, 27, has solidified himself as a quality middle-of-the-rotation arm behind aces Nola and Zack Wheeler in recent seasons. He started 29 games for Philadelphia in 2022, pitching to a strong 3.65 ERA with a 19.5% strikeout rate, 8.8% walk rate and 55.4% ground-ball rate.
With Painter sidelined, left-hander Bailey Falter becomes the clear front-runner for the fifth spot in the Philadelphia rotation behind Nola, Wheeler, Taijuan Walker and — assuming he’s healthy enough come Opening Day — Suarez. If Suarez and Painter are both sidelined to begin the season, the Phillies will likely choose among a group including Cristopher Sanchez, Michael Plassmeyer, James MacArthur and prospects Mick Abel and Griff McGarry. MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at each pitcher earlier in camp when profiling the Phillies’ fifth starter candidates.
Kolby Allard Out With Grade 2 Oblique Strain
Braves lefty Kolby Allard has been shut down after being diagnosed with a Grade 2 oblique strain, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link). He’ll begin the season on the injured list.
There’s no specific timetable for Allard to return just yet, but even Grade 1 strains can lead to a month-long absence at times. Every injury is different, of course, but for some recent context, Rays righty Tyler Glasnow was diagnosed with a Grade 2 oblique strain earlier this month and received a timetable of six to eight weeks.
Allard wasn’t expected to open the season in the Atlanta rotation, but he’s on the 40-man roster and has been sharp in limited spring innings thus far, allowing a run on three hits and a walk with four strikeouts through five innings.
The 25-year-old Allard was the No. 14 overall pick by the Braves back in 2015 but was traded to the Rangers in a 2019 deadline swap that brought righty Chris Martin to Atlanta. The Braves reacquired him in the offseason trade that sent veteran right-hander Jake Odorizzi back to Texas (with Atlanta covering $10MM of Odorizzi’s $12.5MM salary). Allard has a career 3.73 ERA in 316 1/3 innings of Triple-A ball, but he’s been hit hard in parts of five MLB seasons, recording a 6.07 ERA in 232 2/3 frames.
The Braves’ rotation again looks quite strong, led by Cy Young runner-up Max Fried. He’s followed by Charlie Morton, Kyle Wright and Rookie of the Year runner-up Spencer Strider. Candidates for the fifth spot include righties Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder and Mike Soroka. Two of those three will likely join Allard (once healthy) in serving as rotation depth with Triple-A Gwinnett.