Nationals Sign Sam Clay To Major League Contract
The Nationals announced Wednesday that they’ve signed 27-year-old lefty Sam Clay to a Major League contract. The 2014 fourth-rounder has spent his entire career prior to this point in the Twins organization but has yet to appear in the Majors. Clay’s contract comes with a $575K guarantee, tweets Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Clay is represented by the Ballengee Group.
While Major League deals for minor league free agents who have yet to make their Major League debut are admittedly rare, there’s a handful of them every winter. The Nationals, in fact, fared well in exactly that type of signing just one year ago when they inked longtime Athletics farmhand Kyle Finnegan to a Major League deal. He went on to toss 24 2/3 frames of 2.92 ERA ball out of the Washington ‘pen in 2020. They’ll hope for similar success with Clay in 2021.
Because of the lack of a minor league season in 2020, Clay has just 22 2/3 innings of work at the Triple-A level under his belt. He’s pitched to a 4.37 ERA in that time but logged a much more impressive 26-to-10 K/BB ratio and a 60.6 percent ground-ball rate. Clay’s sinker has consistently generated ground-ball rates north of 55 percent, including a ridiculous 77 percent mark through 46 2/3 frames at the Double-A level in 2019.
Past scouting reports on the 6’2″, 190-pound lefty have also touted an above-average curveball, and it should be noted that because of his extreme ground-ball capabilities, he’s surrendered just six home runs in 405 1/3 minor league innings. To further emphasize the eye-popping nature of that stat, consider that Clay has faced 1814 batters in that time.
Clay was never selected to the Twins’ 40-man roster at any point in his career to date, which also means he’s never been optioned to Triple-A. As such — much like Finnegan — he still has three minor league option years remaining, so he doesn’t need to crack a spot on the Nationals’ Opening Day roster by any means. He’ll give the Nats some much-needed lefty depth in their bullpen mix, where Ben Braymer had previously stood as the only southpaw bullpen piece on the team’s 40-man roster.
Offseason Outlook: Colorado Rockies
For a second straight offseason, Rockies owner Dick Monfort set the stage for a tight-budgeted winter for his club. “There will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality, and each club will have to adjust,” Monfort wrote in a letter to season ticketholders at the end of October.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Nolan Arenado, 3B: $199MM through 2026 (Arenado can opt out of the contract after 2021)
- German Marquez, RHP: $36MM through 2023 (includes buyout of 2024 club option)
- Charlie Blackmon, OF: $21MM through 2021 (contract contains player options for 2022-23)
- Trevor Story, SS: $17.5MM through 2021
- Scott Oberg, RHP: $11MM through 2022
- Ian Desmond, INF/OF: $10MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option)
Arbitration-Eligible Players
This year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.
- Daniel Bard — $1.7MM
- David Dahl – $2.6MM
- Elias Diaz — $850K
- Jairo Diaz – $800K
- Carlos Estevez – $1.5MM
- Kyle Freeland – $3.9MM
- Mychal Givens – $3.6MM
- Chi Chi Gonzalez – $1.2MM
- Jon Gray – $5.9MM
- Ryan McMahon – $1.7MM
- Antonio Senzatela – $2.2MM
- Raimel Tapia – $1.5MM
- Tony Wolters – $2.0MM
- Non-tender candidates: E. Diaz, J. Diaz, Estevez, Gonzalez, McMahon, Wolters
Option Decisions
- Declined $15MM mutual option on RHP Wade Davis (paid $1MM buyout)
- Declined $12MM mutual option on 1B Daniel Murphy (paid $6MM buyout)
Free Agents
- Wade Davis, Daniel Murphy, Kevin Pillar, Chris Owings, Drew Butera, Matt Kemp, AJ Ramos
Despite a 91-loss season in 2019 and an offseason that lacked any meaningful additions to the roster, Monfort projected a 94-win campaign for his club in 2020. The Rox got out to a hot start, but their eventual .433 winning percentage was actually worse than their .438 mark in 2019. Now, they’re faced with similar payroll constraints and the continued awkward saga with a franchise icon, Nolan Arenado.
Monfort opened the 2019-20 offseason by declaring a lack of payroll flexibility, and while he stopped a bit short of being so on the nose, his email to fans and a quick look at Colorado’s payroll ledger show that they’re likely in a similar boat. The Rox were set to open the 2020 season with a roughly $146MM payroll prior to prorating salaries, and despite the fact that the contracts of Daniel Murphy, Wade Davis, Jake McGee and Bryan Shaw are off the books, they’re not far from that range.
The Rox owe a combined $93MM to Arenado, Trevor Story, German Marquez, Ian Desmond and Scott Oberg. Even if they non-tender all of the candidates listed above, that figure could rise into the $115MM range. Add in pre-arbitration players and the $7MM worth of option buyouts they paid after the World Series, and the Rockies don’t seem like a club that is teeming with surplus cash. They may not quite be to 2020 levels of payroll, but that was already a franchise-record outlay. We can’t assume they’re comfortable returning to that level, so it appears spending will be measured.
It’s that financial outlook, paired with Arenado’s persistent frustration, that have led to overwhelming trade speculation. Onlookers ought to be plenty familiar with the public nature of Arenado’s dissatisfaction at this point; the five-time All-Star flatly said he felt “disrespected” by the organization last winter. Arenado was reportedly was frustrated with the team’s lack of offseason activity, despite a promise at the time of his extension to make consistent efforts to field a winning club. Arenado told Denver 7’s Troy Renck last February that general manager Jeff Bridich, in particular, is “disrespectful.”
Given another poor showing and playoff miss from the Rox, many fans and pundits alike expect an Arenado trade to be a focal point of the club’s offseason. It is indeed reasonable to expect that the club will explore the market, but the path to an actual trade is anything but straightforward. Arenado has six years and $199MM remaining on his contract — an enormous sum that is sure to cause owners around the game to balk at a time when most clubs are frantically cutting costs.
Looming beyond the overall commitment is the fact that Arenado can opt out of the contract next winter. In many ways, that creates a lose-lose situation for interested parties. Arenado could play at his customary superstar level, enjoy another lofty finish in MVP voting and bolt for free agency. Alternatively, if he struggles or sustains a major injury, any acquiring club would be left with the remaining five years and $164MM on the contract. When the best-case scenario is one year of elite play and the worst-case scenario is six years of a $33MM+ salary for a player whose production has taken a step back, how much surplus value is there for the Rockies to peddle?
The elephant in the room is that Arenado simply didn’t have a great 2020 season. He did still secure his eighth Gold Glove in his eighth Major League season, but Arenado logged a rather bleak .253/.303/.434 slash in this year’s 201 plate appearances — output that is miles from the .295/.351/.546 line he posted in his career prior to 2020. Arenado entered the year with a 120 wRC+ — production 20 percent better than a league-average hitter when weighted for home park and league — and turned in a mark of 76 in 2020 (24 percent worse than a league-average bat).
One could argue that there’s some bad luck at play, and that could be partly true. However, Arenado’s 87.3 mph average exit velocity, 33.7 percent hard-hit rate and 5.4 percent barrel rate were all far and away the lowest of his career. Paired with his enormous salary and the opt-out downside, some clubs may not feel Arenado has much positive trade value. That’s an outlandish-looking comment at first blush, but at the very least, the Rockies won’t be getting a king’s ransom in a trade. They’ll quite possibly have trouble convincing another team to pay the full freight of the contract.
If the Rox are looking to offload salary while adding some controllable young talent, shortstop Trevor Story is the easier piece to market, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently explored. We’ll avoid rehashing his argument at too great a length, but suffice it to say that a 28-year-old career .277/.343/.535 hitter (114 wRC+) with high-end defense of his own is a pretty desirable player under any circumstance — but certainly when he is playing on an eminently more reasonable one-year, $17.5MM pact. Any of the Phillies, Reds or Angels would stand out as a clear fit, and other contenders like the Yankees, Twins or Blue Jays could make sense if they shuffle some pieces around. Top prospect Brendan Rodgers, meanwhile, is on hand for the Rox as a potential heir to Story’s spot.
Of course, while the focus of this outlook thus far has been on the possibility of dealing away a star infielder, that would be a dramatic 180-degree turn from how this organization has operated. Monfort has been almost fatally optimistic about the players the Rockies have in house. In addition to last year’s 94-win proclamation, the Rockies functioned as buyers at this year’s trade deadline, dealing from an already thin farm to acquire Kevin Pillar and Mychal Givens. Monfort may yet hold out the belief that this core group can put together a legitimate World Series run.
Should that prove to be the case, it’s not clear just how the Rockies can piece together the requisite upgrades to supplement a flawed core. Even if the Rockies are able to clear some payroll space, the work needed is considerable.
Colorado starters ranked 20th in the Majors in both ERA (4.83) and FIP (4.88), and their bullpen was only spared from being the game’s worst because of a historically bad group in Philadelphia. Rox relievers logged a combined 6.77 ERA and 5.56 FIP this past season, and Oberg, their best reliever, is a question mark for the 2021 season after undergoing thoracic outlet surgery in September. (He did not pitch in 2020.) Yency Almonte and Daniel Bard were the only two Rockies relievers with 10-plus innings pitched and an ERA south of 5.00.
If there’s a silver lining for the Rockies in all of this, it’s that the market for relievers looks decidedly harsh for players. Brad Hand already went unclaimed on waivers at a rate of one year and $10MM, and we’ve seen several seemingly reasonable club options bought out. The Rox could have their share of affordable bullpen pieces to pursue — although they likely need to add several arms to pair with Bard, Givens, Oberg and perhaps Almonte to make this a serviceable unit. Waiting out the market and striking gold on some Bard-esque minor league pacts feels like a necessity.
In the rotation, the Rockies have several arms who have had success at various points, but only German Marquez has been particularly consistent. The trio of Gray, Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela have all had intermittent success but also endured brutal stretches. With little to no help on the horizon in the farm, the Rockies would likely need to add a veteran option if they plan to continue in win-now mode. It’s difficult to convince free agents to come pitch at Coors Field, though, which will impact their pursuits both in the ‘pen and rotation. Then again, if money is as tight as it appears, they’d likely be shopping in the lower tiers of the market anyhow, or perhaps trying to acquire some non-tender candidates in buy-low trades prior to the tender deadline.
On the position-player side of the roster, the Rockies got no production whatsoever out of their catcher position in 2020, but that’s become par for the course as the club has steadfastly remained committed to light-hitting Tony Wolters. He’s a non-tender candidate again, though, and a solid defender with more ability at the dish (e.g. Jason Castro) might not cost that much more than Wolters’ projected arbitration price.
First base reps could be offered to any of Ryan McMahon (if he is tendered a contract), Josh Fuentes or prospect Colton Welker, and the free-agent market should have some affordable names (e.g. Carlos Santana, Mitch Moreland, C.J. Cron, Justin Smoak). Some outfield support behind David Dahl, who struggled in 2020 before undergoing shoulder surgery, would make sense as well; a Pillar reunion or a similar pursuit doesn’t seem far-fetched.
Frankly, however, the Rockies seem as though they’d be better served to take a step back. Marquez would instantly become one of the prizes of the trade market were he made available, and Story could return some young talent as well. Other Rox arms — Freeland and Givens among them — would hold ample appeal themselves. That has not been how this franchise operates, and while it’s commendable to see a team continue to push for competitive teams year-in and year-out, the process becomes more questionable when financial limitations prevent the front office from making any meaningful changes to the current group’s composition.
Perhaps the club will try to thread the needle of a long-term talent acquisition while still fielding a hopeful contender in 2021. If Bridich is able to find an Arenado trade, for instance, the Rox could reallocate some of those dollars to short-term deals for players to fill needs.
It’s still hard to envision this group contending with the World Champion Dodgers or upstart Padres in 2021, however. The Giants also continue to make strides, while the D-backs retain their own talented core in need of a rebound. The NL West looks like an increasingly tough division, and the Rockies’ avenues to assemble a competitive unit are limited if Monfort again opts not to spend this winter.
Pirates’ Steven Brault Has Drawn Trade Interest
The Pirates have received calls from multiple teams regarding left-hander Steven Brault, Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets. Given the state of the roster in Pittsburgh, it stands to reason that they’d be open to moving any player who is into his arbitration years, which Brault is as of this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s 37-percent method projects Brault to earn $1.5MM in his first trip through the arb process.
Brault, 28, is controlled for three more seasons via arbitration and doesn’t figure to see his arb price reach an outlandish level given this year’s modest salary projection. He’s coming off 42 2/3 innings of a 3.38 ERA with 8.0 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 0.42 HR/9 and a 49.1 percent ground-ball rate. That ERA is a career-best, but it’s not fully supported by other metrics. Brault benefited from a career-low .243 average on balls in play, and fielding-independent marks aren’t as bullish (3.92 FIP, 4.85 xFIP, 5.07 SIERA).
That said, Brault also limited hard contact at the best rates of his career, ranking in the 89th percentile of MLB pitchers in terms of average exit velocity and the 76th percentile in terms of overall hard-hit rate, per Statcast. He cut back on the use of his fastball considerably in 2020, instead throwing his changeup at a career-high 24.1 percent clip. Of the 34 plate appearances Brault finished off with a changeup, opponents posted a .121/.118/.154 batting line with seven strikeouts.
Brault has worked as both a starter and a reliever in the past, splitting his time between the two roles pretty evenly: 45 starts, 55 relief outings. All but one of his 2020 outings were starts, and looking at those 10 trips to the hill he actually pitched quite well. Brault surrendered four runs without recording an out in his lone relief appearance this year. His career ERA as a starter is considerably lower — 4.42 to 5.22 — although fielding-independent marks suggest the discrepancy isn’t so wide.
Whatever gains Brault may have made in 2020 will be subject to various teams’ interpretation of a limited sample size. However, it’s not much of surprise that a 28-year-old lefty with three years of club control, a modest arbitration price tag and some positive indicators in the shortened season is at least generating some inquiries from other clubs. Cost-controlled pitching figures to be coveted even more than ever this winter, given the revenue losses throughout the sport, and the Pirates will surely be open to offers on the majority of their roster after posting the worst record in baseball this past season.
Nationals, Yasmany Tomas Agree To Minor League Deal
The Nationals have agreed to a minor league contract with corner outfielder Yasmany Tomas, as first reported by Francys Romero (via Twitter). He’ll be invited to Major League Spring Training with the Nats in 2021. Tomas turned down a couple of offers in Japan with an eye on playing first base in the Majors, MLBTR has learned.
For the Nats, adding Tomas is likely a simple depth move early in the winter. First base might be the best path back to the Majors for Tomas, as he logged 346 innings at the position in Triple-A last year and the Nats don’t have much at the position with Eric Thames, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Howie Kendrick hitting free agency. The Nats also have a need in one corner outfield spot after declining their 2021 option on Adam Eaton and outrighting Michael A. Taylor off the 40-man roster, but Tomas isn’t likely to win a starting role there.
Washington will be the first big league organization outside of Arizona for the 30-year-old Tomas, who came to the Major Leagues amid considerable fanfare after defecting from Cuba in 2014. Tomas generated widescale interest and huge expectations that led to a hefty six-year, $68.5MM deal — a contract that even included an opt-out clause after the fourth season.
Of course, as anyone who followed Tomas’ career in Arizona knows, that opt-out provision never came into play. Tomas spent some time in Triple-A in 2015, his first season with the club, which was not wholly unexpected. He struggled at the plate in that rookie season but did improve with a 31-homer showing in 2016 — albeit one that came with sub-par on-base skills (.272/.313/.508) and poor outfield defense.
After that 2016 campaign, the D-backs cleaned house in the front office, parting ways with several key execs who contributed to signing Tomas — including then-GM Dave Stewart. Chief baseball officer Tony La Russa “stepped away” after the 2017 season. The new front office, led by current GM Mike Hazen, wasn’t as committed to giving Tomas a lengthy audition. He appeared in just 47 games in 2017, missing much of that year due to a groin injury, and would only ever suit up for four games with the D-backs again. Tomas was outrighted off the 40-man roster in 2018 and hit poorly in Triple-A that year. He rebounded in Reno in 2019 but only received a brief big league look for his efforts. Arizona did not include him in its 60-man player pool this past season.
On the whole, Tomas’ time with the D-backs resulted in a .266/.306/.459 slash (97 wRC+ and OPS+). His glove in the outfield checked in at -34 Defensive Runs Saved in just north of 2000 innings, illustrating the defensive struggles he exhibited in Arizona. That said, Tomas’ .193 ISO speaks to the impressive raw power he possesses, and he did tattoo left-handed opponents at a .293/.343/.537 clip during his time with the Diamondbacks (128 wRC+).
2021-22 MLB Free Agents
The following players are currently eligible for free agency for the 2021-22 offseason. Players’ ages for the 2022 season are listed in parentheses.
Players on this list generally need to have at least 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the 2021 season to be included.
Updated 4-4-22
Catchers
Wilson Ramos (34)
Kevan Smith (34)
First Basemen
Asdrubal Cabrera (36)
Second Basemen
Joe Panik (31)
Eric Sogard (36)
Shortstops
Mike Freeman (34)
Third Basemen
Asdrubal Cabrera (36)
Starlin Castro (32)
Jose Rondon (28)
Left Fielders
Brett Gardner (38)
Center Fielders
Jarrod Dyson (37)
Brett Gardner (38)
Danny Santana (31)
Right Fielders
Michael Conforto (29)
Adam Eaton (33)
Brian Goodwin (31)
Matt Joyce (37)
Designated Hitters
Khris Davis (34)
Mitch Moreland (36)
Starting Pitchers
Brett Anderson (34)
Jake Arrieta (36)
Trevor Cahill (33)
Johnny Cueto (36)
Mike Foltynewicz (30)
J.A. Happ (39)
Matt Harvey (33)
Wade LeBlanc (37)
Right-Handed Relievers
Dellin Betances (34)
John Curtiss (29)
Chris Devenski (31)
Rafael Dolis (34)
Oliver Drake (35)
Luke Farrell (31)
Jesse Hahn (32)
Ryne Harper (33)
Tommy Hunter (35)
Brandon Kintzler (37)
Evan Marshall (32)
Yusmeiro Petit (37)
Nick Ramirez (32)
Richard Rodriguez (32)
Trevor Rosenthal (32)
Edgar Santana (30)
Burch Smith (32)
Josh Tomlin (37)
Left-Handed Relievers
Ross Detwiler (36)
Tony Watson (37)
Angels Name Perry Minasian GM
3:20pm: The Angels have announced the hiring. Minasian received a four-year contract, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets.
12:09pm: The Angels have decided on Braves assistant general manager Perry Minasian as their new general manager, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (via Twitter). Rosenthal reported last night that Minasian was the favorite to land the post, replacing the recently fired Billy Eppler.
Following Eppler’s ousting, the Angels reportedly interviewed as many as 20 candidates for the position, though Minasian was one of just five to advance to the second wave of interviews. Also in the mix were Cubs senior vice president of player personnel Jason McLeod, D-backs assistant GMs Jared Porter and Amiel Sawdaye, and Mariners assistant GM Justin Hollander.
Ultimately the job will be entrusted to Minasian, who has been with the Braves since 2017 after a nine-year run working his way up through the Blue Jays’ scouting ranks. His appointment to this post makes for another rookie GM hire for Angels owner Arte Moreno, who has previously tabbed first-timers Tony Reagins, Jerry Dipoto and the aforementioned Eppler to lead his baseball ops department. (Dipoto had served as an interim GM in Arizona prior to being hired by the Angels.)
That’s not to suggest that Minasian is in any way a head-scratching hire — far from it. He’s previously been connected to GM vacancies, including the Mets’ opening prior to their 2018 hiring of Brodie Van Wagenen. Minasian has seemingly been preparing for an opportunity like this for most of his life, in fact. As MLB.com’s Mark Bowman noted back when the Braves hired Minasian in October 2017, he served as the Rangers’ bat boy while his father was their equipment manager and eventually rose to clubhouse attend and then to the team’s scouting department prior to his move to the Blue Jays. His brother, Zack, is currently the Giants’ pro scouting director.
From his time in the clubhouse to his tenure as a prominent scout and then an assistant GM and vice president who helped to bolster the Braves’ analytics department, Minasian has a wealth of experiences and vantage points — all of which have contributed to his ascension to the top of a big league baseball operations department.
Minasian inherits a crowded but manageable long-term payroll outlook in Anaheim. The Angels are at last in the final season of the 10-year, $240MM Albert Pujols contract negotiated by Moreno, and they’ll be out from underneath Justin Upton‘s five-year, $105MM deal after the 2022 season. Starting in 2023, the only players on the books for the Angels are Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, although they’ll have some key players up for arbitration that year — most notably Shohei Ohtani, David Fletcher and Griffin Canning.
Minasian joined the Braves after the 2017 season as they were emerging from a rebuilding effort. He’ll now join a club with an even greater win-now imperative — this time standing alone atop the operations hierarchy (although Moreno has a reputation for being far more involved in baseball operations maneuverings than most of his ownership peers). It’s been six years since the Halos and Trout last reached the postseason, and Moreno has clearly grown restless as that drought has grown.
Minasian should have the green light for an aggressive offseason if he wishes. Jason Martinez of Roster Resource/FanGraphs projects a roughly $36MM gap between the Angels’ current luxury obligations and the luxury tax barrier, and that only figures to grow once the Halos make some expected non-tenders. The Angels will need to address at least one middle-infield spot and perhaps add a catcher, but the bulk of Minasian’s heavy lifting should be expected to be on the pitching side of things — in the rotation and bullpen alike.
How Will Marcus Semien Do In Free Agency?
While a frosty winter for most free agents has been the general expectation throughout the industry, there’s also been a belief that the very top names on the market will still be compensated at a rate more commensurate with a typical economic climate. Names like Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer and DJ LeMahieu are widely projected to secure lucrative multi-year deals. Agent Joel Wolfe tells Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle that he expects client Marcus Semien to also command a high-dollar contract despite the harsh market conditions.
Wolfe didn’t say he expects a nine-figure deal for the 30-year-old shortstop but did plainly state that Semien’s “pure value in the industry is north of $100MM.” The use of “pure” value at a time when contractual expectations are depressed suggests that the actual target could be somewhat lower. Still, it’s rather eye-opening to see any agent invoke a $100MM price point in any context at this point — particularly for a player coming off a respectable but hardly elite season. I won’t fully rehash Wolfe’s comments for the purposes of this exercise, but Slusser’s interview is well worth a full read-through to get a broader sense of his representation’s thinking.
Semien’s market and contract, admittedly, are among the toughest to gauge among all free agents this offseason. That’s due to a combination of Semien’s pedestrian regular-season numbers, his huge postseason efforts and the fact that he was an elite, MVP-level performer in 2019 — but at no other point in his career. Add in that we simply don’t see solid, everyday shortstops reach free agency often, and it’s all the more difficult because of a lack of precedent.
Outside of Didi Gregorius last year and Zack Cozart a few years back, most quality shortstops have been locked up on contract extensions that buy out their early free-agent years. (It’s fair to wonder whether that would’ve been true of Gregorius, too, had he not required Tommy John surgery post-2018). Each of Andrelton Simmons, Xander Bogaerts, Elvis Andrus, Paul DeJong, Brandon Crawford, Jorge Polanco, Tim Anderson and Jean Segura took earlier paydays rather than a year-to-year arbitration approach, for instance. It may not seem like it at first glance, but Semien’s very presence on the market as an in-his-prime, starting-caliber shortstop is rather atypical.
Given that context, the scattershot nature of predictions for Semien isn’t all that surprising. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel predicted a three-year, $54MM deal, calling Semien a “steady 2.5 to 3.5 WAR player whom a savvy club will find solid value in for two or three years.” At FanGraphs, Craig Edwards predicted a four-year, $64MM deal, pointing to the fact that if you toss out the first two weeks of the season after a shortened ramp-up period, Semien posted a 133 wRC+ (playoffs included). The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked him sixth among free agents — between Marcell Ozuna and DJ LeMahieu — noting that he seems capable of handling shortstop for the next several years but calling 2019 a likely outlier season.
Tim Dierkes, Connor Byrne, Jeff Todd and I struggled with what to predict for Semien when we were discussing our annual Top 50 list. I was the most bullish of the bunch on Semien’s prospects, believing that the “one elite season” argument somewhat glosses over the fact that Semien kept his bat elite over the course of an MLB-high 747 plate appearances that year. Weighting that output the same as we’d rate a 500-600 plate appearance sample simply because it fell within the confines of “one season” didn’t sit right. Over Semien’s past 1000 plate appearances — closer to two full seasons than to one — he’s been about 25 percent better than a league-average hitter. For someone capable of playing average or better shortstop defense, that’s immensely valuable, even if there’s some further regression in store.
It’s tough to overlook a .223/.305/.374 slash in 2020, however, and even folding in his massive postseason performance that only jumps to .244/.326/.408. Even as the most bullish member of the MLBTR staff regarding Semien, I had a difficult time picturing more than a three-year deal in the range of $14-15MM annually. We ultimately put down a one-year deal with a return to market next winter, hopefully on the heels of a stronger showing, with the prevailing logic being that any multi-year offers received simply wouldn’t be that exciting relative to Semien’s post-2019 expectations.
The 2021-22 class of shortstops featuring Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, Javier Baez, Trevor Story and Carlos Correa certainly isn’t a welcoming group to join, although as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd rightly pointed out, the huge supply of quality shortstops inherently means there will be considerable demand for replacements — and not every club losing one of those five will be able to meet the asking price to retain them. Therein could lie an opportunity for a strong contract for Semien. That glut of quality options, Wolfe tells Slusser, is “a factor we’d consider but not a guiding factor” in the shortstop’s ultimate decision.
While it’s again worth noting that Wolfe didn’t outright set a $100MM asking price, it still seems likely based on his comments that Semien’s reps at Wasserman have a loftier goal than most pundits expect to be attainable. Wolfe tells Slusser that interest in Semien has already been strong — including an inquiry from a club that already would appear to have a set shortstop. “I just got another call (Wednesday) from a team that said they’d be willing to move their shortstop to another position,” the agent tells Slusser.
Between the A’s, Reds, Phillies and Angels, there are at least four postseason hopefuls who have fairly straightforward openings at shortstop. Other clubs like the Yankees, Mets, Twins and Blue Jays could certainly shuffle their infield mix if they believe Semien represents a potential value purchase in a depressed market with a historically good 2021-22 shortstop class looming.
Wolfe’s comments to Slusser exude some confidence that Semien will eventually land a strong multi-year commitment, but there may not be a position player with a broader range of plausible outcomes on this year’s free-agent market.
Padres, Mike Clevinger Working Toward Two-Year Deal
The Padres are working toward a two-year contract with right-hander Mike Clevinger, reports Fansided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter). A two-year pact would buy out Clevinger’s remaining two years of arbitration, creating cost certainty for the Friars and granting some extra financial security for the pitcher himself. It would not, however, provide the Padres with any additional club control over Clevinger, who is currently on track to reach free agency after the 2022 campaign.
It’s sensible for both the Padres and Clevinger, who’ll turn 30 next month, to proactively look to avoid the arbitration process entirely. Arbitration figures to be messier than ever this offseason in the wake of the league’s broad-reaching revenue losses, so it behooves San Diego to get some cost certainty — particularly if doing so allows them to backload Clevinger’s salary. For Clevinger himself, he’ll avoid a potentially contentious process and lock in not only his 2021 salary but his 2022 contract on the heels of a season that ended with elbow concerns.
Clevinger earned $4.1MM in 2020, and using MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz’s 37-percent projection method, he’d land at a $4.8MM salary in 2021. That’s obviously a rather modest bump, and the uncertainties surrounding this year’s arbitration process in general inherently create a fairly broad range of variance. Still, a two-year deal figures to check in south of $20MM, given that Clevinger’s second- and third-time arbitration salaries would have only been a fraction of his open-market value, as is typically the case with arb numbers.
The 2020 season saw Clevinger again pitch at a very high level, as he worked 41 2/3 frames of 3.02 ERA ball with a 40-to-14 K/BB ratio. He struggled with his control a bit early on but righted the ship with the Padres, issuing just three walks in 19 regular-season innings following the blockbuster trade that shipped him from Cleveland to San Diego. Clevinger came under fire early in the season not only breaking Covid-19 protocols but traveling with the Indians after doing so. Cleveland learned of his infraction after the fact and subsequently optioned him to their alternate training site; Clevinger was traded not long after, although the organization denied that his rule violations played a role in driving the move.
Whatever the motivation, the Padres stand to benefit in the years to come. Clevinger joins Dinelson Lamet as a front-of-the-rotation arm at Petco Park, and the Padres have a wealth of other pitching talent on hand as well. Chris Paddack struggled in 2020 but was dominant as a rookie a year prior. Zach Davies enjoyed a breakout year this season following a trade from the Brewers. Top prospect Luis Patino made his big league debut in 2020, and the even more ballyhooed MacKenzie Gore should do so in 2021. Lefty Adrian Morejon gives San Diego yet another intriguing, high-upside option.
All told, it’s a both enviable and inexpensive crop of arms that give the Padres considerable long-term depth and upside. The Padres have some high-priced players on the position side of things — Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers — and will likely explore a long-term deal for Fernando Tatis Jr. at some point. Nailing down Clevinger’s price helps the front office and ownership alike get a better sense of the budget for that and other moves over the next two years.
Mets, Yankees Have Shown Interest In Yadier Molina
Both the Mets and Yankees have reached out to Yadier Molina‘s camp to express interest in the veteran catcher, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). The Cardinals icon has also heard from at least three others, per Heyman.
It’s not surprising that either New York club would at least explore the possibility of bringing the 38-year-old Molina into the fold. As noted here at MLBTR last week, signing Molina would be a major narrative shift in the Bronx, where Gary Sanchez‘s defensive struggles and prolific strikeout rates have drawn the ire of many fans. Molina, of course, is a generational defender at his position and still possesses some of the best bat-to-ball skills in baseball (13.5 percent strikeout rate in 2020).
As for the Mets, they’ve been oft-connected to J.T. Realmuto since it became clear that Steve Cohen would purchase the club from the Wilpon family. Wilson Ramos is a free agent, leaving Tomas Nido atop the team’s depth chart behind the dish. For a club with immediate postseason aspirations under new ownership, that doesn’t cut it. Molina would be a more affordable option than Realmuto, leaving more resource available to pursue other top free agents and trade targets (e.g. George Springer, Trevor Bauer, Francisco Lindor). Outgoing White Sox catcher James McCann stands out as a younger alternative as well.
Agent Melvin Roman told Heyman a couple weeks back that he’s seeking a two-year deal for Molina, and Roman told MLB.com’s Jon Morosi last week that they’ve heard from at least three clubs beyond the Cardinals. At this point, there’s no reason to call any club other than St. Louis a favorite, as the Cards clearly have the most motivation to keep Molina through the end of his career. Ostensible interest from other clubs — particularly big-market organizations out of New York — will only increase fan pressure to make a deal happen, though to this point it’s not clear that any of the teams that have expressed interest have shown a willingness to offer the two-year term that Molina and Roman seek.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/11/20
Here are Wednesday’s minor moves from around the game…
- Left-hander Brian Gonzalez has signed a minor league deal with the Rockies, agent Gavin Kahn announced on Twitter. He’ll receive an invite to Major League Spring Training. Gonzalez, who turned 25 a couple of weeks ago, was a third-round pick of the Orioles back in 2014 but never advanced beyond the Double-A level in the Baltimore system. Gonzalez was hit hard at that level as a 22-year-old but fared better in 2019, when he logged a 4.32 ERA and 35-to-11 K/BB ratio in 41 2/3 frames there. He’s never been considered a particularly high-end prospect, but the Rockies have a clear need for some depth in the upper levels of a weak farm system.
- The Athletics have signed right-hander Montana DuRapau to a minor league contract, according to DuRapau’s agents at Primetime Sports Group (Twitter link). The 28-year-old (29 in March) didn’t pitch in the big leagues this past season but logged 14 1/3 frames with the Pirates in 2019. That’s the only Major League experience DuRapau has on his track record, and it didn’t go particularly well, as he yielded 15 runs in that time. However, DuRapau carries a career 3.42 ERA in parts of three Triple-A seasons — including a sterling 2.14 mark with 11.1 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 in 46 1/3 innings during 2019’s wildly hitter-friendly, juiced-ball season.