Click here to read a transcript of Tuesday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.
Which Pick(s) Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent
We looked already at the possible draft compensation that teams might recoup from losing players who decline qualifying offers. Now, we’ll take a glance at the topic from the other side of the coin: what it’ll cost other teams to sign such players.
Last week, 10 players received qualifying offers. Teams interested in signing Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Jake Odorizzi, Anthony Rendon, Josh Donaldson, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Will Smith will therefore be required to forfeit draft and perhaps international bonus considerations in order to sign anyone from that bunch — assuming each of the 10 rejects that one-year, $17.8MM sum. Here’s a breakdown of the specific penalties that all 30 teams would face in signing a “qualified” free agent:
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Yankees, Cubs
If any of these three teams signs a qualified free agent, they will forfeit their second- and fifth-highest selections in next summer’s draft. They’d all also see $1MM docked from their 2020-21 international bonus pools. The Red Sox, in particular, seem more intent on shedding payroll and lowering their luxury hit than on adding a high-end free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would mean then surrendering their third- and sixth-highest selections as well as an additional $1MM in international funds.
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Indians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Padres, Mariners, Rays
These 16 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax during the 2019 season. As such, they’d forfeit “only” their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft by signing a qualified free agent. Signing a second qualified free agent would require forfeiting their fourth-highest pick. A third would mean their fifth-highest pick (and so on). Revenue-sharing recipients who do not cross the luxury threshold face the smallest penalty in signing a qualified free agent.
All Other Clubs: Nationals, White Sox, Astros, Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays
These 12 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K upon signing a qualified free agent. At 67-95, the Blue Jays had the worst record among this group, meaning it’d be most costly (in terms of amateur talent acquisition capital) for them to sign a qualified free agent. However, GM Ross Atkins has said since the season ended that such concerns won’t deter the Jays from pursuing qualified free agents.
For teams in this group, signing a second qualified free agent would mean punting next year’s third-highest selection and an additional $500K. A third would mean parting with the fourth-highest pick and another $500K (and so on).
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While those penalties surely count for something, it’s worth reminding that they’re also not as steep as some clubs like to portray. Each team’s top overall selection is protected, and the highest draft choice that’d theoretically be forfeited would be the Cardinals’ Competitive Balance (Round A) selection, which would come in after the first round and after all of the compensatory picks for these free-agent losses. Competitive Balance Round A in 2019 spanned pick Nos. 35-41, and the slot value of those selections ranged from $2.1MM (No. 35) to $1.81MM (No. 41).
With 10 QOs this year, that compensatory round will be longer. Most teams with a Competitive Balance draft pick next season (barring trades of those picks, which are the only draft choices eligible to be traded) will fall into the “revenue sharing recipient” bucket, meaning their Round A picks would be protected. If the Cardinals pass on a qualified free agent, then the Jays and their second-round pick (likely in the mid-40s) would face the largest potential penalty.
Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.
As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.
In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.
The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.
Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.
Athletics Eyeing Left-Handed Bats, Additional Bullpen Arms
Were they not in the AL West, the Athletics might have a division title under their belt in the past couple of seasons. Unfortunately for Oakland, they’ve played second fiddle to a powerhouse Astros club despite a pair of 97-win seasons and now must look for an avenue to either topple the ’Stros or finally punch through the Wild Card barrier.
That’s easier said than done, of course, and general manager David Forst chatted with John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle about this week’s GM Meetings and the work his club has to do to improve. Specifically, the Athletics would like to balance out their lineup a bit this winter. “It’s something we’ve discussed a lot internally, looking for opportunities to add left-handed bats to the lineup,” said Forst, who also listed the bullpen as a potential area for supplementation.
A certain old friend could even be a potential target, Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. The A’s have reached out to the representatives for free agent catcher Stephen Vogt, creating an opening for an intriguing potential reunion that didn’t seem terribly likely when the sides parted ways. The left-handed-hitting backstop could help with the aforementioned desire for lineup balance while also serving as a reserve behind the dish.
At present, the Athletics are heavily reliant on right-handed bats. Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Khris Davis, Ramon Laureano, Stephen Piscotty, Mark Canha and on-the-rise catcher Sean Murphy all hit from the right side of the dish. Oakland does have one potent lefty bat in first baseman Matt Olson, while switch-hitters Robbie Grossman and Jurickson Profar at least offered manager Bob Melvin some options from the left side of the plate. But the 2019 A’s were a powerhouse against left-handed pitching, ranking fourth in the Majors with a 115 wRC+ in that regard, while they posted a more measured (but still above-average) 104 wRC+ against right-handed opposition.
Both marks are reflective of a quality offensive unit, but there is indeed an opportunity to add some more balance — particularly with MLB rosters set to expand from 25 players to 26 players in 2020. The presence of that robust core — Olson, Chapman, Semien, Davis, Murphy, Laureano — doesn’t leave the A’s with too many clear spots for upgrade, but further comments from Forst lend some insight. The GM suggested that left field, where Grossman and Chad Pinder formed a capable platoon, isn’t “at the top of the priority list” at the moment.
As MLBTR’s Connor Byrne explored late last month in the Athletics’ Offseason Outlook, adding a left-handed bat at second base and/or in the outfield could be in the cards. Incumbent options include the aforementioned Pinder (who can play both positions), Profar (second base) and Piscotty (right field). Younger players like Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo have also yet to get a real look at second base and, as Shea observes, will both be out of minor league options in 2020.
Pinder is best suited for a bench role and saw even his numbers against lefties back up in 2019. Defensive questions swirled around Profar, who had a poor year at the plate outside of a blistering month of August. Piscotty is still owed $22.5MM over the next three seasons combined, which the A’s may deem too steep after his bat took a couple steps back in 2019 (.249/.309/.412).
The free-agent market offers some intriguing alternatives — Kole Calhoun or old friends Ben Zobrist and Eric Sogard could all conceivably fit the mold of what the organization is seeking. The relief market features numerous affordable arms — Sergio Romo, Pedro Strop, Craig Stammen and David Phelps among them. And the A’s, of course, are ever-active on the trade market and figure to lay the foundation for such negotiations at this week’s GM Meetings.
Still, it’s not an easy puzzle to solve. Their current 2020 payroll commitments stand at $45.5MM between Davis, Piscotty, Mike Fiers, Joakim Soria and Yusmeiro Petit. The A’s have another $53.7MM worth of projected arbitration salaries (courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), which are headlined by a $13.5MM projection for Semien. Among the notable non-tender/trade candidates in that bunch are Blake Treinen ($7.8MM projection), Profar ($5.8MM) and catcher Josh Phegley ($2.2MM).
As ever, cost will be a paramount consideration. Oakland opened the 2019 season with a $92MM payroll — low for most clubs but a franchise record for the A’s — and their current guarantees and arb projections alone will push them to $99MM (before even factoring in pre-arbitration players to round out the roster). If the hope is to add at least one new lefty bat (if not two) and some additional ’pen help, they’ll need to be aggressive in non-tendering/trading from that arbitration class and perhaps explore the market for Piscotty (depending on other moves). It’ll make for quite a few moving parts and possibly some unexpected trade scenarios, but that’s become the norm for Beane, Forst and the rest of an always-creative Oakland front office.
Looking more closely at the catching situation, Phegley’s situation is particularly relevant as concerns Vogt, since the former is presently in line to fill an important role behind the plate. It’s possible that both could share time on the roster, though that doesn’t seem terribly likely given the costs involved and the ongoing presence of Davis in the DH slot. The fact that there’s interest in Vogt seems a clear indication that the club is at least considering a different direction. As Slusser notes, Phegley’s offense tailed off in the second half and he lost playing time to Murphy down the stretch.
Vogt, of course, logged four-plus seasons with the A’s and was the club’s top catcher from 2015-2016. He emerged as something of a fan favorite thanks to his solid offensive contributions. In his time in Oakland, Vogt slashed .256/.317/.416 (101 wRC+) over 1641 plate appearances. He tailed off at the plate in 2017, leading the A’s to designate him for assignment, before a career-threatening shoulder injury wiped out his 2018 season.
Fortunately, Vogt posted a suprising bounceback effort last season with the Giants. In 280 plate appearances, Vogt slashed .263/.314/.490 (107 wRC+) with 10 home runs. Entering his age-35 season, Vogt surely won’t be expected to carry a huge load at catcher, but he’s still capable of getting behind the dish and offers some left-handed power, in addition to a well-respected veteran presence. As Slusser notes, that could make Vogt an ideal fit as the A’s break in the aforementioned Murphy. Already one of the game’s top prospects, Murphy impressed in a brief showing as a September call-up but will be in need of some supplementation and mentoring.
Multiple Teams Pursuing Zack Wheeler At Outset Of Free Agency
7:33pm: The Mets also remain interested in exploring a multi-year arrangement with Wheeler, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s not evident how serious that possibility is — let alone whether there’s any potential for a pact to come together before Wheeler formally reaches the open market.
We’ve seen plenty of on-again/off-again chatter of a deal with Wheeler over recent months. When the Mets acquired Marcus Stroman, it was generally supposed that the club was going to move on from Wheeler, though the door stayed open when he wasn’t dealt over the summer. With obvious budgetary restrains and other needs, it still feels like a longshot.
Meanwhile, those prior trade talks also came up in reporting today. Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that the Mets spoke with teams right up until the deadline passed, with the Astros pushing hardest and the Yankees, Rays, and Athletics also involved.
That’s mostly of historical interest, though it could offer some clues for free agency. Indeed, the Houston organization is already engaged with Wheeler’s reps, per Heyman (via Twitter). The ’Stros talked shop with Jet Sports today. We can only presume that the outfit’s major free agent starter came up in conversation, among other things.
2:29pm: Zack Wheeler technically has another three days to accept or reject his $17.8MM qualifying offer from the Mets, but there’s never been a realistic scenario in which he takes the one-year deal. The right-hander is widely considered to be among the four best pitchers in free agency this winter — No. 3 behind Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, by many accounts — and should have little trouble cashing in on a lucrative multi-year pact. To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Angels, Padres and White Sox are among the teams that have shown early interest in Wheeler. Other clubs have surely checked in already and will continue to do so, of course.
Wheeler, 29, has come all the way back from a lengthy absence stemming from 2015 Tommy John surgery. He’s made 60 starts over the past two seasons and saw his fastball velocity tick up to a career-high 96.7 mph average in 2019 — the second-hardest mark of any free-agent starter on the market (behind Cole).
Wheeler had a rough handful of starts at the beginning of each of the past two seasons, but over his past 55 starts combined, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 349 2/3 innings. Beyond the high-end velocity, Wheeler possesses above-average spin on his heater and curveball, and he’s excelled in terms of minimizing hard contact against him (90th percentile average exit-velocity among MLB starters, per Statcast).
Each of the three listed teams is a natural fit for Wheeler, though that’s true of the majority of rotation-hungry teams in the league. While the likes of Cole and Strasburg will be wholly ruled out by many clubs due to their expected $30MM+ annual salaries and over the next half decade-plus, Wheeler is quite likely someone most teams will view as affordable — even if he’s at the top end of their budget. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman quotes one team executive expressing a similar sentiment, calling Wheeler the best arm of the market’s second tier (beyond Cole and Strasburg) and adding “and everyone pretty much will believe they could afford him.”
Beyond the listed teams in Morosi’s report, it’d be a surprise if the Phillies, Twins, Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals (if Strasburg departs), Dodgers, Blue Jays and others aren’t in play for the righty. Wheeler could draw the most widespread interest of any free agent on the market this winter and will probably be connected to a dozen or more additional teams between now and the time he finally puts pen to paper.
Hanley Ramirez To Play In Dominican Winter League
Free-agent first baseman/designated hitter Hanley Ramirez reported to los Tigres de Licey in the Dominican Winter League and will soon be playing in games for the team, reports Enrique Rojas of ESPN Deportes. Ramirez is on the comeback trail after undergoing shoulder surgery in July to correct a shoulder issue that was said at the time to have been bothering him for “years.”
The 36-year-old said during a radio appearance with 102.5 FM in Santo Domingo that he hasn’t considered retirement and is still hopeful of returning to the big leagues. The DWL will provide a showcase for Major League scouts in that regard, and it’s certainly conceivable that with a decent showing, he’ll parlay that into a minor league deal and an invitation to Spring Training with a team.
Ramirez was released by the Red Sox early in the 2018 season — a surprise move at the time — and opted to sit out the remainder of the season despite receiving interest as a free agent. Upon signing a minor league deal with Cleveland in the 2018-19 offseason, Ramirez revealed that he had wanted to take some time off to allow his body to heal and to put himself in the best shape possible for his next opportunity. He broke camp as the Indians’ Opening Day designated hitter this past March, but the months of rest apparently didn’t do the trick for his shoulder; Ramirez hit just .184/.298/.327 with a pair of homers in 57 plate appearances before being released by the Cleveland organization.
It’s unlikely that any club is going to look at Ramirez as an everyday option in the field at this point, so his best bet is likely to sign with an American League club. Perhaps the forthcoming addition of a 26th MLB roster spot will make NL clubs more willing to carry a part-time first baseman/interleague DH/pinch-hitter, but Ramirez will need to first demonstrate that he can still hit before garnering any type of interest.
Royals Release Jacob Barnes
Nov. 8: Barnes has been released after clearing waivers, the Royals announced.
Nov. 6: The Royals have requested unconditional release waivers on Barnes, per a team announcement.
Nov. 4: The Royals announced Monday that they’ve designated right-hander Jacob Barnes for assignment. The club needed to open a 40-man roster spot to facilitate the reinstatement of Salvador Perez and Kelvin Gutierrez from the 60-day injured list. Kansas City will have a week to trade Barnes or run him through outright waivers, with the latter path seemingly the likelier of the two.
Barnes, 29, recorded a combined 3.54 ERA with 9.3 K/9, 3.8 BB/9 and 0.8 HR/9 in 147 1/3 innings for the Brewers from 2016-18. The 2019 season was an all-out nightmare, however, as he was clobbered for an ERA just shy of 7.00 in 19 2/3 innings as a Brewer before allowing 13 runs (12 earned) in 13 innings with the Royals. Barnes’ 93.7 mph average fastball in 2019 was down three full miles per hour from its peak. Perhaps correspondingly, he’s experienced a six percent drop in swinging-strike rate and an eight percent dip in his opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone.
Padres Release Eric Yardley
The Padres have released right-hander Eric Yardley, per the transactions log at MLB.com. He’d been designated for assignment earlier this week and was cut loose upon clearing waivers.
Yardley, 29, made his MLB debut with San Diego in 2019. The Seattle University grad went undrafted and pitched in the independent Pecos League out of college before signing on with the Padres as a minor league free agent. He’s been in their system since 2013 and long posted sharp numbers without getting a call to the big leagues.
That changed this past season, as Yardley parlayed a 2.83 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.42 HR/9 and 63.8 percent ground-ball rate in the extremely hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League into his first taste of the Major Leagues. The 6’0″, 165-pound sidearmer acquitted himself well, too, allowing just three earned runs on 12 hits and three walks with seven strikeouts in 11 2/3 innings.
As with many sidearm pitchers, Yardley isn’t going to blow anyone away with velocity. His sinker checked in at an average of just 86.2 mph in the Majors this season. But, as has been the case in Triple-A (both this season and in years past), Yardley was a ground-ball machine with the Padres, inducing grounders at a 64.1 percent clip in his limited sample of work.
Padres To Name Larry Rothschild Pitching Coach
The Padres are set to hire Larry Rothschild as their new pitching coach, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports. The 65-year-old was recently let go by the Yankees with one year remaining on his contract. Rothschild will be replacing one of the game’s longest-tenured coaches, Darren Balsley, who will change gears and work as a special assistant working with the club’s minor league pitchers.
Rothschild has spent the past nine seasons as the pitching coach in the Bronx and spent nine years prior to that as the pitching coach for the Cubs. He has extensive experience working as a minor league pitching coordinator and Major League bullpen coach, and he was also the inaugural manager of the Rays — a role he held from 1998 to 2001. Balsley, according to Acee, is taking on a less-demanding role in the organization to spend more time with his son, who has committed to play for San Diego State once he graduates high school this spring.
It’s the latest of several changes in the San Diego dugout this offseason. Manager Andy Green was fired after four years on the job, and he’s been replaced by the Rangers’ Jayce Tingler. Meanwhile, the Friars are also set to announce the hiring of Phillies infield coach Bobby Dickerson as their new bench coach.
Phillies GM Matt Klentak On Rotation, Free Agency, Kingery
The Phillies’ pair of playoff misses in 2018-19 prompted a managerial change, and with veteran skipper Joe Girardi now at the helm, postseason expectations are even higher. With those postseason aspirations comes the expectation of an active offseason — a topic which general manager Matt Klentak discussed with Joe DeCamara and Jon Ritchie on the 94WIP Midday Show yesterday (link includes full audio). Unsurprisingly, bolstering the rotation is a key goal for the Phils.
“We’ve built a pretty solid core, we think, on the position-player front,” said Klentak. “So I think it makes sense for us to look to pour some more resources, and our time and attention, into improving our run prevention. That starts in the starting rotation.”
Aaron Nola will once again head up the Phillies’ starting staff in 2020, and Klentak said within the interview that Jake Arrieta is expected to be ready for the start of Spring Training after undergoing August surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow. (The hope, of course, is that better health from Arrieta will lead to better results than 2019’s 4.64 ERA in 135 innings.) Beyond that pairing, 25-year-old righty Zach Eflin seems likeliest to have a tentative rotation spot, although he briefly lost his starting gig in 2019. The team’s other primary starters in 2019 — Nick Pivetta, Vince Velasquez, Drew Smyly and Jason Vargas — either struggled greatly (Pivetta, Velasquez), have since departed via free agency (Smyly) or both (Vargas).
At bare minimum, it’d seem the Phillies have two rotation vacancies to address. The good news is that this year’s free-agent market is deeper than many recent offseasons in terms of starters. Fans, however, shouldn’t necessarily hang their hopes on Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Zack Wheeler coming to town. While Klentak didn’t firmly decree that the team won’t sign a player that has rejected a qualifying offer, he implied that the organization will need to stop doing so at some point.
“I’m more bullish on the farm system than some,” the GM explained when asked about improving his minor league talent base. “One of the things we’ve got to try to do, if we can, is to not forfeit draft picks, and that’s hard when you’re fishing in the deep end of the free-agent pond. But we lost our second-round pick last year and our second and third the year before. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but that’s where Scott Kingery comes from. That’s where Spencer Howard comes from. That’s where Connor Seabold comes from. … We’ve got to try to hang onto that as much as we can.”
Again, it’s not a firm declaration that such a move won’t happen. The Phillies certainly have the payroll capacity, in both the short- and long-term, to add a high-end arm on the open market, and they’ve clearly been willing to make draft sacrifices recently. But if the preference is to maintain as much draft capital as possible, the team could also look to non-qualified free agents to bolster the staff. Cole, Straburg, Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner and Jake Odorizzi are the five starters that received (and will likely reject) qualifying offers.
Reigning NL ERA leader Hyun-Jin Ryu was ineligible to receive a qualifying offer, though, and the Cubs opted not to extend a QO to old friend Cole Hamels, who just yesterday expressed interest in a return to Philly. Other notable free-agent names include Dallas Keuchel, Michael Pineda and Rick Porcello, among many others.
Beyond the pitching staff, Klentak briefly touched on some notable points pertaining to the lineup. McCutchen, like Arrieta, is expected to be ready for day one of Spring Training after suffering a season-ending ACL tear back in June. Barring setbacks, he’ll reclaim a spot in the outfield, but the composition of that unit is in many ways dependent on the status of Odubel Herrera, who sat out the final 85 games of the season under a domestic violence suspension.
Klentak was noncommittal on Herrera’s future when asked, instead focusing his response on the competition that arose in center field during his absence. Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn and Kingery impressed in center, per the GM. Kingery, in particular, drew extensive praise from Klentak, who noted that the 25-year-old’s versatility is not only a luxury for the manager but for the front office.
“If we’re looking to add a bat, for instance, we don’t have to look at just one position,” said Klentak. “We can look at a variety of different spots, knowing that Scott Kingery can not just capably, but masterfully, fill in defensively just about anywhere. I don’t think it’s a stretch to say he’s our best defensive second baseman, shortstop, third baseman and center fielder.”
The Phillies have a pair of trade/non-tender candidates at second base (Cesar Hernandez) and third base (Maikel Franco) in addition to the aforementioned uncertainty in center field, making that comfort with Kingery at four different positions particularly noteworthy. That creates a relatively blank canvas for Klentak and his staff when looking to improve the lineup and/or the defense. As is the case with the rotation, Klentak will have virtually innumerable avenues to explore, setting the stage for another offseason of heavy lifting for the Philly front office.
