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Hiroshima Carp To Post Infielder Ryosuke Kikuchi

By Steve Adams | November 8, 2019 at 7:39am CDT

The Hiroshima Carp of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball announced this week their intention to allow second baseman Ryosuke Kikuchi to pursue an opportunity in Major League Baseball via the posting system, the Japan Times reports.

The 29-year-old Kikuchi doesn’t carry eye-popping offensive totals throughout his career. He’s a lifetime .271/.315/.391 hitter, including .261/.313/.406 in 619 plate appearances in 2019. He walked at a 6.6 percent clip this past season and struck out in 16.4 percent of his plate appearances, which is roughly in line with the solid contact numbers he’s posted throughout his career.

Where Kikuchi shines, however, is with the glove. He’s regarded as one of Japan’s best defensive players and has won a Golden Glove honor in each of the past seven years. There’s no shortage of highlights available on YouTube, and fans of the World Baseball Classic may recall some standout plays from the 2017 tournament (as well as an opposite-field, game-tying home run against Team USA’s Nate Jones).

Late in September, Will Hoefer of Sports Info Solutions profiled Kikuchi while looking at some NPB players who might try to make the jump to MLB this winter, noting that Kikuchi led all NPB second baseman with 20 Defensive Runs Saved in 2018-19. Kikuchi is only listed at 5’7″ and 152 pounds, but Simon notes that he’s a plus runner, which helps him take advantage of the aforementioned contact skills.

Whether Kikuchi’s defensive prowess will garner the attention of big league teams remains largely an unknown at this point. The offseason market for second basemen already has plenty of serviceable options in free agency, as Howie Kendrick, Brian Dozier, Starlin Castro, Jonathan Schoop, Ben Zobrist, Jason Kipnis, Eric Sogard, Brock Holt and Wilmer Flores are among the many veterans available. The trade market, too, figures to have a few options, including Jonathan Villar.

Under the current iteration of the posting system, the Carp can post Kikuchi anytime between Nov. 1 and Dec. 5. The old blind bidding and set release fee systems are no longer in place, having given way to a new system that entitles a player’s former club to a release fee that is determined based on the size of the contract he signs in Major League Baseball. That posting fee is equal to 20 percent of a contract’s first $25MM, plus an additional 17.5 percent of any guaranteed money from $25-50MM and finally another 15 percent for any dollars over $50MM. With regard to minor league contracts, the posted player’s former club would receive a release fee equal to 25 percent of the signing bonus (plus a supplemental release fee if the player is added to the active roster and receives a Major League salary).

The Carp have yet to announce the specific date on which Kikuchi will be posted. He’s the second NPB player known to be up for posting this winter, joining Yokohama DeNa BayStars slugger Yoshitomo Tsutsugo. Seibu Lions center fielder Shogo Akiyama, meanwhile, is seeking a Major League opportunity as well but is not subject to the posting system, as he has more than nine years of service time in NPB. He’s a pure free agent who can sign with any team.

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Uncategorized Ryosuke Kikuchi

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MLBTR Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | November 7, 2019 at 1:20pm CDT

Click here to read a transcript of Thursday’s chat with MLBTR’s Steve Adams.

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MLBTR Chats

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Hamels Open To One-Year Deal With Win-Now Club

By Steve Adams | November 7, 2019 at 1:17pm CDT

Veteran lefty Cole Hamels is a free agent for the first time in his excellent 14-year career, but unlike many free agents he doesn’t sound laser-focused on securing one last, lucrative multi-year deal. Rather, he tells MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki that his focus is on signing with a club that is making a clear push for postseason play — even if it means taking a one-year deal.

“I can do one year here and there and just play as long as I can play,” says Hamels. “I think that’s what will help give me an opportunity to play on teams that are trying to go to the postseason. If you need one guy, I can just kind of bounce around.”

There’s some degree of strategy to the decision. Locking himself into multiple years could, conceivably, lead to being stuck on a club where things go south for in 2020 but he’s retained with an eye toward 2021. Plus, on a one-year deal, even if the team with which he signs performs poorly and falls out of contention, there’s always the possibility of being traded to a club making a more definitive postseason push.

Hamels has one World Series ring to his credit already, which he secured more than a decade ago when he was named both the NLCS MVP and World Series MVP for the Phillies’ last championship in 2008. A second tour of duty with the Phillies holds appeal to the veteran Hamels, who says he would “love the opportunity to come back” and recognizes that the organization is “finally trying to make that push.” Notably, he adds that he’d consider a multi-year pact to return to Philly.

Of course, the Phillies’ starting staff quite likely needs more help than Hamels alone can provide, but his willingness to take a one-year pact could allow Philadelphia (or any other win-now club with multiple starting needs) to spend more aggressively on a higher-end rotation augmentation. At present, the Phillies have Aaron Nola atop their starting staff and little else in terms of certain commodities. Jake Arrieta is under contract for another season, but he struggled considerably before undergoing season-ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. Zach Eflin finished out the year with respectable but unspectacular numbers, while fellow righties Nick Pivetta and Vince Velasquez both turned in ugly 2019 campaigns.

Hamels, 36 in December, experienced something of a career renaissance with the Cubs after being traded over from the Rangers prior to the 2018 non-waiver deadline. His 2019 season crumbled after he returned from an oblique injury — the lefty admits to Zolecki that he rushed back far too soon — but from the time of his trade in 2018 to this year’s IL placement he posted a 2.71 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 0.77 HR/9 and a 49.7 percent grounder rate in 176 innings.

It’s tough to wholly ignore the 42 ugly innings that Hamels posted upon returning from that injury, though. After allowing just nine homers, issuing 35 walks and hitting three batters in his first 99 2/3 innings of the season, Hamels served up eight homers, yielded 21 walks and plunked four batters in those final 42 frames. The result was a woeful 5.79 ERA in that stretch of 10 starts, leaving him with a combined 3.81 ERA in 141 2/3 innings in 2019.

It’s worth emphasizing that being open to a one-year deal and strictly preferring a one-year deal aren’t the same thing. Hamels may be open to a one-year arrangement, but that doesn’t limit him to signing for only a single season. Most contenders would surely prefer a one-year term, but it’s possible that there’ll be enough interest to create multiple two-year offers from World Series hopefuls. The fact that the Cubs opted not to make him a qualifying offer, thus absolving him of the burden of draft-pick compensation, only makes him more appealing to contenders with rotation needs.

Regardless of contract length, the four-time All-Star’s comments make it clear that he has no plans to sign on as a veteran mentor for a rebuilding club: “I just want to have the opportunity to get to the postseason, just so that I can try to win.”

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Philadelphia Phillies Cole Hamels

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Yankees, Brett Gardner Discussing New Contract

By Steve Adams | November 7, 2019 at 11:25am CDT

The Yankees and Brett Gardner have already begun talks about a new contract, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets. A new arrangement between the two sides would bring Gardner back to the Bronx for at least a 13th season.

Gardner, 36, had a career year at the plate in 2019, hitting .251/.325/.503 with 28 home runs, 26 doubles, seven triples and 10 steals (in 12 attempts). The power surge should likely be taken with a grain of salt, thanks to the supercharged ball that led to record-setting home run levels throughout the league, but Gardner still demonstrated that there’s life left in his bat and once again displayed a quality approach at the plate (9.5 percent walk rate, 19.5 percent strikeout rate).

A reunion between the two sides has long looked plausible, but the recent revelation that Aaron Hicks will miss a substantial portion of the 2020 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery only increased the likelihood of a new deal. With Hicks shelved and Jacoby Ellsbury more than two years removed from his last MLB appearance, the Yankees have a clear need in center field. The free-agent market features little in the way of enticing options at the position (beyond Gardner himself), and Gardner was motivated enough to stay in New York last winter that he took what amounted to a $3MM pay cut to return to do so. Given all that context, it’s hardly a surprise to see the two sides proactively begin negotiations.

Gardner isn’t the burner that he once was on the basepaths and in the outfield, but he still remains a quality defender that is capable of handling center field work. He logged 820 innings in center in 2019, plus another 348 in left field, drawing positive marks for his glovework on the whole (+5 Defensive Runs Saved, +3.0 Ultimate Zone Rating, +2 Outs Above Average).

Gardner checked in at No. 32 on MLBTR’s Top 50 free agent rankings this week. As noted within, Gardner’s outstanding season and the thin market for center fielders could seemingly combine to get him a two-year deal elsewhere, but a one-year pact — and a raise on this year’s $7MM salary — to return to the Yankees seems likeliest.

As currently constructed, the Yankees have roughly $158.5MM committed to 10 players for the 2020 season. Add in another $35.9MM of projected arbitration salaries (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz) for another 10 players plus a handful of pre-arbitration players to round out the roster, and the Yankees are looking at a payroll around $198MM before making any additions. They’re already at or over the luxury line as it is — luxury payroll, unlike actual payroll, is calculated based on contracts’ average annual value and also includes money for player benefits — though that doesn’t seem likely to be a major roadblock with regard to Gardner.

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New York Yankees Brett Gardner

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Devon Travis Elects Free Agency

By Steve Adams | November 7, 2019 at 10:02am CDT

The Blue Jays announced that second baseman Devon Travis has rejected an outright assignment in favor of free agency. He’s now eligible to sign with any club.

This was the obvious outcome when Toronto announced that Travis had cleared outright waivers earlier in the week. Any player with three or more years of Major League service time — Travis has four-plus years — has the right to reject an outright assignment in favor of free agency, and virtually every such player who is outrighted this time of season opts to test the open market.

Travis, who’ll turn 29 in February, at one point looked to be the Blue Jays’ second baseman of the future. Acquired in a one-for-one swap that sent outfielder Anthony Gose to the Tigers nearly five years ago to the day, Travis burst onto the scene the following season with a .304/.361/.498 batting line, eight homers and 18 doubles in just 239 plate appearances. Despite being promoted to the Majors in early April that year, Travis was limited to 62 games as a result of a shoulder issue that twice put him on the shelf for at least a month.

Injury notwithstanding, a strong impression was made, and the following season gave further reason for optimism. Upon returning from surgery to repair that balky shoulder, Travis appeared in 101 games and hit .300/.332/.454 with 11 homers, 28 doubles and a triple in 432 plate appearances. Through the first two (injury-shortened) seasons of his career, Travis carried a .304/.342/.469 slash (116 OPS+) and looked well on his way to a quality big league career.

Unfortunately for both Travis and the Jays, knee troubles set in during the 2016 postseason, and his recovery from that issue proved far more cumbersome than his recovery from the 2015 shoulder troubles. A bone bruise in the 2016 ALCS led to offseason knee surgery for Travis, and he underwent a second procedure on that knee the following summer. Those injuries contributed to a miserable season at the plate in 2018, and in Spring Training 2019, Travis underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his other knee. Multiple setbacks in his recovery followed, and Travis didn’t play at all this past season.

In all, since that promising two-year stretch to open his career, Travis has appeared in just 153 games over a three-year period and posted a lackluster .242/.280/.400 batting line with 16 homers and 32 doubles in 575 plate appearances. It’s clear that he possesses plenty of raw ability, though with shoulder surgery and a trio of knee operations all coming before his 29th birthday, it’s fair to wonder just how much his body will allow him to tap into that talent. He may have to settle for a minor league pact to prove he’s healthy enough to return to his once-productive ways. Any club that signs him would be acquiring multiple years of control, as Travis is nine days shy of five years of Major League service time, meaning he’d remain arbitration-eligible through the 2021 campaign.

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Toronto Blue Jays Transactions Devon Travis

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MLBPA Launches Investigation Of Comments From Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos

By Steve Adams | November 6, 2019 at 9:50pm CDT

9:50pm: Anthopoulos has issued a statement (via the Braves, on Twitter), saying: “In advance of the General Managers meetings, I called around to Clubs to explore the possibility of potential off-season trades. At no time during any of these calls was there discussion of individual free agents or the Braves’ intentions with respect to the free agent market. To the extent I indicated otherwise during my media availability on Monday, I misspoke and apologize for any confusion.”

5:40pm: Tony Clark, executive director of the Major League Baseball Players Association, announced Wednesday that the MLBPA has launched an investigation looking into recent comments from Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos. Specifically, the union took umbrage with the following comment Anthopoulos made during a recent conference call with Atlanta beat writers (link via The Athletic’s David O’Brien):

Every day you get more information. And we’ve had time to connect with 27 of the clubs — obviously the Astros and (Nationals) being in the World Series, they were tied up — but we had a chance to get a sense of what the other clubs are going to look to do in free agency, who might be available in trades.

The MLBPA’s issue stems from Anthopoulos’ acknowledgment of getting a feel for how other clubs plan to act in free agency. With regard to sharing intel in free agency, the collective bargaining agreement states: “Players shall not act in concert with other Players, and Clubs shall not act in concert with other Clubs.” In a press release, Clark expressed extreme displeasure with Anthopoulos’ assertion and offered the following response:

The statements made by Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos call into question the integrity of the entire free-agent system. The clear description of Club coordination is egregious, and we have launched an immediate investigation looking into the matter.

It’s the latest chapter in a saga that has seen tension between labor and management mount at an alarming rate. Clark and the Union have previously asked the league to investigate whether low-payroll clubs have appropriately utilized their revenue-sharing resources — the Pirates and Marlins, specifically — as multiple agents (including agent-turned-Mets-GM Brodie Van Wagenen) have spoken of “coordinated” efforts on the part of owners to scale back salaries at the Major League level. Clark has also accused MLB teams of a “race to the bottom,” and more recently raised issue with teams’ early assertions that they’ll face payroll constraints despite the continual increase in franchise values. (The Royals and Marlins have recently sold for $1 billion and $1.2 billion.)

There’s been no shortage of speculation surrounding a potential labor stoppage at the expiration of the current collective bargaining agreement (in 2021). The extent of the unrest has prompted the league and the union to begin negotiations for the next CBA much earlier than they’d normally have begun such discussions, but today’s statement from Clark only underscores the chasm that currently exists between the two sides.

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Atlanta Braves Newsstand Alex Anthopoulos Tony Clark

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Lester Strode Won’t Return As Cubs’ Bullpen Coach

By Steve Adams | November 6, 2019 at 8:25pm CDT

8:25pm: WEEI’s Rob Bradford writes that LeVangie’s interview was indeed for the bullpen coach vacancy.

7:40pm: The Cubs will not retain bullpen coach Lester Strode in that role, reports ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers. The 61-year-old Strode has spent 31 years in the Cubs organization, including the past 13 years as the Major League bullpen coach. He has, however, been offered a “prominent” position elsewhere in the organization, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman adds (via Twitter).

Chicago has already interviewed recently dismissed Phillies pitching coach Chris Young — not to be confused with the former MLB pitcher or outfielder — as a potential successor to Strode, per Rogers. Heyman adds one other potential candidate: former Red Sox pitching coach Dana LeVangie. The 50-year-old knows recently hired manager David Ross well, as he was the Red Sox’ bullpen coach during Ross’ time as the team’s backup catcher in 2013-14. LeVangie also worked in the Red Sox scouting department while current Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, GM Jed Hoyer and vice president Jason McLeod were in the organization.

LeVangie was ousted as the Red Sox’ pitching coach at season’s end, though he was reassigned to another position rather than dismissed entirely. It’s common for coaches who are reassigned to be given the opportunity to interview elsewhere, though, and Heyman notes that LeVangie has indeed interviewed for an unspecified position on Ross’ staff. It was also reported yesterday that former Padres skipper Andy Green has interviewed to serve as Chicago’s bench coach in 2020.

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Chicago Cubs Dana LeVangie Lester Strode

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Minor MLB Transactions: 11/6/19

By Steve Adams | November 6, 2019 at 4:15pm CDT

We’ll track today’s minor moves — some of the first of this nascent offseason — in this post…

  • The Twins’ Triple-A affiliate announced the re-signing of catcher Tomas Telis and right-hander Jonathan Cheshire on minor league contracts. Telis, 28, appeared in the Majors each year from 2014-18, hitting a combined .230/.267/.298 in 267 plate appearances between the Marlins and Rangers. He’s a much more accomplished Triple-A hitter, though, and like many minor leaguers, he posted his best numbers ever in 2019’s heightened offensive environment in Triple-A. In 327 plate appearances with the Rochester Red Wings, Telis hit .330/.364/.490 with eight homers and 21 doubles. Cheshire, 25 this month, joined the Twins in August after struggling with the Blue Jays but showing well with the Somerset Patriots of the independent Atlantic League. Upon signing with the Twins, he tossed 13 2/3 shutout innings with a 14-to-4 K/BB ratio (one walk being intentional). The former 36th-round pick (Jays, 2017) will get another look in the upper levels of the Twins’ system on the heels of that impressive performance.
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Minnesota Twins Transactions Jonathan Cheshire Tomas Telis

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Josh Lindblom Eyeing MLB Return

By Steve Adams | November 6, 2019 at 3:13pm CDT

If you click through right-hander Josh Lindblom’s archives here at MLBTR, the headlines aren’t exactly eye-catching. A series of DFAs, outrights, releases and minor league re-signings with the Pirates make up most of the recent chatter on the 32-year-old, whom many readers may never even have heard of. Lindblom pitched 147 innings in parts of five seasons with the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers, A’s and Pirates from 2011-17. Interspersed throughout were multiple stints with the Lotte Giants of the Korea Baseball Organization (2015-16 and a midseason return in 2017). Lindblom opened 2017 on a minor league deal with Pittsburgh but eventually returned to the KBO in relative anonymity among MLB fans.

There’s nothing “anonymous” about Lindblom’s past two seasons as far as KBO fans are concerned, though. While his 2017 campaign there was solid but unspectacular, Lindblom has erupted as one of the best pitchers in South Korea since the beginning of 2018. In two seasons with the Doosan Bears, Lindblom has worked to a combined 2.68 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 0.72 HR/9 in 363 1/3 innings. His 2019 strikeout, walk and home-run rates all improved over their already-strong 2018 marks as Lindblom racked up 194 2/3 innings with a 2.50 ERA. The righty flirted with a sub-2.00 ERA for much of the season and this week was announced as the winner of his second straight Choi Dong-Won Award — the top pitching award in the KBO.

With that run of excellence and a Korean Series championship in his back pocket, Lindblom now has his sights set on a return to Major League Baseball. Unlike last time when he quietly signed a minor league pact with the Pirates, however, he could very well find genuine interest on Major League offers. Lindblom’s current two-year platform tops that of fellow right-hander Merrill Kelly in just about every capacity, and Kelly landed a two-year, $5.5MM contract with the Diamondbacks last winter. It’s important to note that Kelly, who pitched this past season at age 30, was younger — but the gap between their numbers isn’t particularly close:

IP ERA WHIP K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Merrill Kelly (2017-18) 348.333 3.82 1.29 9.04 2.38 0.88
Josh Lindblom (2018-19) 363.666 2.67 1.03 8.56 1.66 0.72

That’s obviously a pretty basic look at the pair’s stats overseas, but there’s nonetheless a notable discrepancy, even if Kelly did manage to strike batters out at a slightly higher rate.

There’s reason to consider Lindblom beyond his surface-level numbers, though. He isn’t going to blow big league hitters away with velocity — his heater averaged 91 mph this year in the KBO — but Lindblom has standout spin rates on his side. Data obtained by MLBTR puts his four-seamer at a hefty 2610 RPM this past season, while his splitter (where less spin is better) would also rank quite well among big league hurlers at 1200 RPM. The KBO ball isn’t the exact same as the MLB ball, so the carryover might not be exact, but Lindblom’s ability to spin the ball is something that could be of genuine intrigue to a Major League club.

Lindblom’s pitch selection has also changed over the past two seasons, with the 2019 version of the right-hander’s repertoire leaning much more heavily on a four-seamer/splitter/cutter combination than in the past. His slider, changeup and curveball were all used minimally (eight percent or lower), and he’s ditched his former two-seamer entirely. It seems likely that he’d continue to be reliant on the same three-pitch mix that fueled his breakout. The splitter, in particular, has developed into a weapon for Lindblom in the KBO despite the fact that he never threw the pitch during his time in MLB. Notably, he’s also generated extremely low levels of opponent exit velocity, though the weaker competition and different ball composition make it tough to discern exactly how to value that data.

Broadly speaking, that’ll be the question for Major League teams this winter: How should they react to a pitcher who was a fringe 40-man candidate in his last two MLB stints but has made demonstrable alterations that resulted in positive indicators?

It’s easy to dream on Lindblom’s KBO numbers, but remember that even star-caliber KBO players haven’t been compensated particularly well by Major League teams. Jung Ho Kang and ByungHo Park were MVP-caliber talents in South Korea but secured respective guarantees of $11MM and $12MM over four-year terms from the Pirates and Twins. The aforementioned Kelly was clearly an above-average starter in KBO’s hitter-friendly environment but didn’t secure $3MM per season in MLB guarantees — and his contract with the D-backs surrendered two additional years of control via affordable club options.

Penciling in Lindblom at even a $5-6MM salary would be aggressive based on prior trends, and age certainly won’t help his case. Team executives with whom MLBTR inquired suggested Lindblom could be viewed anywhere from a swingman to an intriguing back-of-the-rotation starter. Despite the gap in stats between Lindblom and Kelly in the KBO, not everyone who weighed in was sold on Lindblom as the better long-term play.

In this year’s edition of our annual Top 50 Free Agents (published Monday), we ranked Lindblom near the back end of the list and pegged him for a two-year deal worth a total of $8MM. That doesn’t sound like much to most onlookers — and realistically won’t cut deeply into any team’s payroll — but it’d nevertheless be a fairly risky gamble on a 32-year-old who has never found much MLB success.

Perhaps a club will fall in love with the spin and his highly GIF-able splitter — tip of the cap to Sung Min Kim (Twitter links) — but we’ve yet to see a pitcher who fits this career arc top the two years and $15.5MM that Miles Mikolas secured in 2017. Mikolas came back in advance of his age-29 season and had a more dominant three-year run in Japan than Lindblom has had in Korea. As such, that contract felt too aggressive to project, but something between Kelly’s deal and that contract seems plausible. Last offseason, swingman Jesse Chavez signed for that same two-year, $8MM we projected, so it doesn’t seem outlandish to suggest a comparable amount for Lindblom.

Lindblom has also drawn interest from teams in Japan and could quite likely receive a nice offer to return to the Bears in 2020, so he’ll have choices at his disposal this winter. Regardless of where he lands this time around, he’s a source of greater intrigue than he was the last time he was quietly available for any team to sign.

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MLBTR Originals Josh Lindblom

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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

By Steve Adams | November 5, 2019 at 9:18pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Brewers lost MVP candidate Christian Yelich to a knee fracture in early September but nevertheless rode a torrid hot streak to an NL Wild Card berth. The Milwaukee Magic ran out earlier this season than last, however, as the Brewers couldn’t overcome the Nationals in that one-game showdown. It’ll be back to the drawing board again for president of baseball ops David Stearns and his staff, who’ll enter the offseason with question marks behind the plate, in the infield and on the pitching staff.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Lorenzo Cain, OF: $51MM through 2022
  • Christian Yelich, OF: $27.75MM through 2021 (includes buyout of 2022 club option)
  • Ryan Braun, OF: $20MM through 2020 (includes buyout of 2021 mutual option)

Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Jimmy Nelson – $3.7MM
  • Corey Knebel – $5.125MM
  • Alex Claudio – $2.2MM
  • Travis Shaw – $4.7MM
  • Zach Davies – $5.0MM
  • Junior Guerra – $3.5MM
  • Tyler Saladino – $1.0MM
  • Orlando Arcia – $2.7MM
  • Ben Gamel – $1.6MM
  • Brent Suter – $900K
  • Josh Hader – $4.6MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Perez, Shaw, Guerra, Spangenberg, Saladino, Austin

Option Decisions

  • Yasmani Grandal, C: Grandal declined $16MM mutual option, becoming a free agent (received $2.5MM buyout)
  • Mike Moustakas, 3B/2B: Moustakas declined $11MM mutual option, becoming a free agent (received $3MM buyout)
  • Eric Thames, 1B/OF: Brewers declined $7.5MM club option (Thames received $1MM buyout)
  • Manny Pina, C: Brewers exercised $1.85MM option

Free Agents

  • Grandal, Moustakas, Thames, Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Lyles, Drew Pomeranz, Matt Albers, Tyler Austin (outrighted, elected free agency), Cory Spangenberg (outrighted, elected free agency), Hernan Perez (outrighted, elected free agency)

For a team that just enjoyed its second postseason berth in two years, the Brewers have a surprising number of holes to fill. The rotation will be an obvious point of focus, but the lineup offers its share of uncertainty as well.

Both Yasmani Grandal and Mike Moustakas declined mutual options, as expected, removing two of the team’s better bats from the equation. First base will also be a possible point of focus after Milwaukee paid a $1MM buyout rather than exercising a $7.5MM option on slugger Eric Thames. Meanwhile, Travis Shaw struggled through the worst season of his career and isn’t a sure bet to be tendered a contract — let alone to be a major contributor in 2020. At shortstop, Orlando Arcia posted an anemic .223/.283/.350 batting line in 586 plate appearances.

In summary: the Brewers will be in the market for a catcher, at least one corner infielder and perhaps a shortstop. First base could be an area of need as well. That’s a lot of work to tackle even before looking at the pitching staff, so let’s begin with the lineup.

Grandal shocked onlookers, MLBTR included, when he spurned a reported four-year offer from the Mets last winter to sign a one-year pact with Milwaukee. After the agreement, Grandal spoke about the obligation he felt to prioritize a higher annual salary as a means of advancing the market for future catchers.

Perhaps that was a bit of PR spin or perhaps it was genuine; whatever it was, Grandal proved with a .246/.380/.468 batting line and his characteristic brand of strong defense that he should be Milwaukee’s priority this winter. There’s no doubt that retaining him would be expensive — particularly if Grandal’s preference is once again for a premium annual rate at the expense of length. But the Brewers would be within their means and within reason if they offered Grandal an annual salary in the $20MM range over a three-year term. If he’s willing to sign a four-year pact at a slightly lesser rate, that’d be well worth considering, too. As for the backup role, paying a net $1.7MM for Pina’s quality glove is perfectly sensible.

There’s also a strong argument in favor of re-signing Moustakas. It’s tough to pay Shaw a projected $4.7MM as a rebound candidate, but reallocating that money to a new pact for Moustakas would create needed stability in an infield mix where only breakout rookie Keston Hiura appears locked into a spot (second base). Despite a quality run that now includes four above-average seasons in five years, Moustakas simply hasn’t been valued all that highly in two trips to the open market. Retaining him on a two-year deal comparable to this season’s value would be a worthwhile avenue to explore.

Of course, offseason demand will dictate the price points for Grandal and Moustakas, and at a certain juncture the Brewers will be willing to move on. Should that happen, they’ll have a bevy of catching alternatives from which to choose, including a perhaps on-the-rise Travis d’Arnaud, a steady defender in Jason Castro and a quality veteran bat in Robinson Chirinos (among others). There are fewer reasonably priced free agents at the hot corner — Anthony Rendon is too lofty a target — but perhaps if Grandal spurns a robust three-year offer, the Brewers could look to the older-but-still-excellent Josh Donaldson in a similar price range.

Uncertainty at the infield corners notwithstanding, the biggest problem area in the infield is shortstop, where the aforementioned Arcia has yet to live up to the hype that surrounded him as a minor leaguer. Once ranked inside the game’s Top 10 overall prospects by both Baseball America and MLB.com, Arcia has mustered a miserable .243/.292/.360 batting line in nearly 1700 MLB plate appearances. The Brewers have entrusted primary shortstop duties to him for three straight seasons and come away with virtually nothing to show for it. If you’re looking for a clean fit for Didi Gregorius, Milwaukee is a good place to start.

Shifting focus to the pitching staff, it’s somewhat amazing that Milwaukee made it as far as it did with the staff in place. The Brewers, by Stearns’ own admission, “tend to blur the lines” between starters and relievers more than most clubs. You want see many Milwaukee starters even pitch six innings, but their success while relying on Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Adrian Houser and IL returnees Brandon Woodruff, Brent Suter and Jimmy Nelson was remarkable. Both Nelson and Woodruff have high ceilings and have realized that potential for significant stretches of time, but both have battled recent injuries. Nelson missed most of 2019 while recovering from shoulder surgery, while a severe oblique strain sidelined Woodruff for two months.

That duo, if healthy, gives the Brewers a foundation for the starting staff in 2020. But Milwaukee has already moved on from Anderson, whom they didn’t trust for more than five innings at a time in 2019. With his $8.5MM option deemed more expensive than the organization was willing to spend, Anderson was flipped to the pitching-needy Blue Jays on the first day of the offseason. That move saved some money but also further thinned out the Brewers’ depth.

The Brewers may yet be hopeful that right-handers Corbin Burnes and Freddy Peralta can function as starters — or at least a multi-inning role of some sort — but the organization could still stand to bring in a source of stable innings. Similar arguments have been made in each of the past two offseasons, and the Brewers responded rather tepidly by adding Jhoulys Chacin, Wade Miley and Gio Gonzalez on low-risk deals. That history makes it hard to predict that the Brewers will step up in pursuit of any high-end starter, but they at least make sense for some reasonably priced upside plays. Jordan Lyles (again), Drew Smyly and Michael Wacha could fit the bill. Or, the Brewers could operate as they have most recently and wait to see who’s left without a seat at the end of this offseason’s game of musical chairs.

In the bullpen, the Brewers will likely be intrigued by any pitcher they believe capable of throwing more than an inning at a time. Drew Pomeranz morphed into a late-inning monster in Milwaukee and recorded four or more outs in nearly a third of his appearances down the stretch. Pomeranz’s unexpected dominance could make him a buzz reliever who generates multi-year interest, but if the Brewers plan to continue sticking to low-cost rotation options, spending more to retain a pitcher who looked like a potential high-end relief weapon would make sense.

Alternatively, Milwaukee wants to pursue some higher-end targets to pair with Josh Hader and a returning Corey Knebel next season, they could look into a Will Smith reunion or pursue Will Harris. This year’s market is generally lacking in top-flight setup options, though veterans like Joe Smith, Steve Cishek and Craig Stammen have generally solid track records. And, as always, the trade market will present limitless opportunities for Stearns & Co. to explore as they look to piece together what should once again be one of the game’s more unique assemblies of pitchers.

Depending on the moves the Brewers make on the position-player side of the coin, they’ll need that penchant for creative pitching staff construction to its fullest extent. Assuming some additional non-tenders (Shaw, Junior Guerra, and Tyler Saladino), the Brewers currently project to have about $73.5MM in 2020 commitments. That’s roughly $49MM shy of this year’s Opening Day mark, but the aforementioned needs at catcher, third base and shortstop could all be costly to fill — particularly if retaining Grandal is deemed a Lorenzo Cain-esque priority (that is to say — a relatively unique free agent worth deviating from the more value-based mindset with which the organization typically approaches the open market).

There’ll be a lot written about the Brewers’ need to add legitimate starting pitching help this winter, but that hasn’t been how this front office has operated. Milwaukee has persistently bucked conventional wisdom when putting together rosters that feature exceptional flexibility in the lineup, on the pitching staff and on the fringes of the 25-man roster itself. The addition of a 26th roster spot next season might allow other clubs to follow in those footsteps a bit, but Milwaukee’s knack for cultivating depth and leveraging versatility is among the best in the game.

The Brewers will need to employ that same creativity in the months to come as they look to reshape the infield and deepen their pitching staff in an effort to keep up with the division-champion Cardinals, the typically aggressive Cubs (last winter being a notable exception) and a Reds team that is more motivated to win than at any point in recent history.

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2019-20 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Milwaukee Brewers

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