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Cubs Exercise Cole Hamels’ Option, Trade Drew Smyly To Rangers

By Steve Adams | November 2, 2018 at 11:30am CDT

11:30am: The Rangers have formally announced the acquisition of Smyly and a player to be named later in exchange for a different player to be named later. The Cubs have also announced the moves.

9:42am: The Cubs will exercise their $20MM club option on left-hander Cole Hamels today and also trade fellow left-hander Drew Smyly to the Rangers, reports ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick (via Twitter). Late last night, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reported that a long-term deal between Hamels and the Cubs was unlikely and that the team could make a move to clear some salary before agreeing to pay Hamels at a $20MM rate for the 2019 season.

Cole Hamels | Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

Hamels will step into the rotation spot that had been earmarked for Smyly when he signed a two-year, $10MM deal with Chicago last offseason. Rehabbing from Tommy John surgery at the time, Smyly inked a back-loaded, two-year contract that calls for a $7MM salary in 2019. However, Hamels’ eye-opening resurgence to nearly ace-level status with the Cubs presented Chicago with what it clearly deems a preferable alternative to Smyly.

The Cubs have been weighing all week whether to exercise Hamels’ option or opt for a $6MM buyout. The wrinkle in that scenario is that, under the terms of the trade that sent Hamels to Chicago, the Rangers would be on the hook for the buyout sum. That Texas would pay the $6MM buyout seemed little more than a formality at the time; there was little thought that Hamels would pitch well enough to merit a $20MM salary for the upcoming season.

In essence, then, the reportedly forthcoming trade is a somewhat creative means of the Cubs retaining Hamels while still receiving the benefit of the same level of financial compensation from the Texas organization — if not a bit more. The Rangers will absorb either all of Smyly’s $7MM salary or, speculatively speaking, could agree to pay $6MM of that sum with the Cubs eating $1MM in cost in order to keep the dollars at the same level they’d have been had Texas merely paid the buyout.

In the end, the Rangers will receive a desperately needed rotation piece, while the Cubs will retain the former Phillies ace who immediately won the hearts of Cubs fans with an otherworldly run of success following the trade. Hamels allowed just five runs, total, through his first seven starts with the Cubs and finished out the season with a 2.36 ERA in 76 1/3 innings for the Cubs.

While his 82.3 percent strand rate isn’t sustainable and points to some degree of regression, Hamels nonetheless looked legitimately improved following the trade. He should slot comfortably into the middle of a Cubs rotation that’ll also feature Jon Lester, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana and a hopefully healthier Yu Darvish in 2019. The Cubs also have Mike Montgomery on hand as a valuable safety net for the rotation as well as righty Tyler Chatwood, though his three-year contract has been a bust to this point. It seems likely that the Cubs could look for opportunities to unload the remaining $25.5MM on that ill-fated signing this offseason in order to further clear some salary.

That, perhaps, is the largest remaining question at play here. Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein has been vocal about his desire to improve an offense that, as he put it, “broke” late in the 2018 season and certainly in the team’s National League Wild Card loss to the Rockies. It’s seemed fair to assume that the Cubs would be prepared to spend aggressively as a means of doing so, either by investing in the free-agent market or looking at established bats on the trade market.

However, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted this morning that other teams have gotten the sense that the Cubs’ payroll flexibility is far more limited than one might think. If that’s the case, moving Chatwood or some other money could be something of a prerequisite for further additions. Even with Smyly off the books, Hamels’ salary will push the Cubs’ payroll north of the $200MM mark (when factoring in arbitration-eligible players and pre-arb players) — quite possibly close to the $206MM luxury tax barrier; Smyly’s contract came with a $5MM luxury tax hit, whereas Hamels’ deal after the option is exercised effectively becomes a seven-year, $158MM contract and would carry a $22.5MM luxury hit. The maximum capacity of the Chicago payroll remains unknown, but the Cubs have already pushed into record territory by exercising Hamels’ option, and the offseason has yet to truly begin in earnest.

Drew Smyly | Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images

As for the Rangers, while Smyly’s health is an unknown, he’s the type of arm they can dream on as they strive to cobble together a rotation after virtually everything possible went wrong on their starting staff in 2018. Mike Minor and Smyly are the only real locks for the Texas rotation next season, but Smyly brings significant upside to a team whose internal options beyond Minor were otherwise uninspiring.

General manager Jon Daniels will still need to add further established options and depth pieces to the starting staff, as the current best options after Minor and Smyly look to be Ariel Jurado, Yohander Mendez, Adrian Sampson and Austin Bibens-Dirkx. None of that quartet has found success at the big league level yet, and most of the bunch even struggled in the upper minors.

The further upshot for the Rangers is that as they enter a possible transitional or rebuilding phase, Smyly could very well emerge as a coveted trade asset on the summer market. Smyly hasn’t pitched since the 2016 season due to ongoing injury troubles — most notably the aforementioned Tommy John surgery — but he sports a career 3.74 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9 and a 36.3 percent ground-ball rate in 570 1/3 innings. Smyly has shown flashes of brilliance at times and looked like a potential impact starter — perhaps never more so than when starring for Team USA in the most recent World Baseball Classic — though he’s yet to consistently tap into his talent while also struggling to stay on the field.

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Chicago Cubs Newsstand Texas Rangers Transactions Cole Hamels Drew Smyly

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Dodgers Will Make Qualifying Offer To Yasmani Grandal

By Steve Adams | November 2, 2018 at 11:04am CDT

The Dodgers are “definitely” issuing a $17.9MM qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal before today’s deadline to do so, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). The team could also issue a QO to left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu, though there’s still an internal debate whether to do so or simply let Ryu hit free agency without the potential for draft pick compensation.

The decision to issue Grandal a QO at that rate may come as a surprise for some, particularly in the wake of an ugly postseason effort that was underscored by uncharacteristic defensive miscues. But Grandal was one of the game’s most productive catchers with the bat this season, has long rated as an elite pitch framer (arguably the best and most consistent in baseball) and is consistently average or better in terms of controlling the running game. The switch-hitter will turn 30 next month and, even in spite of that ugly postseason showing, should have little trouble securing at least a three-year contract in an offseason where several contenders are in clear need of upgrades behind the plate.

It’d be a surprise to see Grandal accept the QO, though even if he does so, the Dodgers would likely be pleased to retain him on a one-year deal after he hit .241/.349/.466 with 24 home runs in 2018. Only Salvador Perez hit more home runs than Grandal among big league catchers, and only Wilson Ramos and J.T. Realmuto turned in a better all-around offensive performance when adjusting for league and park (by measure of wRC+). By that measure, the average catcher was 16 percent worse than a league-average hitter; Grandal, conversely, was 25 percent better than a league-average hitter.

That gap in production should lead to considerable interest on the open market. The Nationals, Rockies, Red Sox, Astros, Phillies, Braves, Brewers, Mets, Angels, Twins and Dodgers themselves are among the teams who could use help behind the plate next year.

As for Ryu, the decision likely boils down to the Dodgers’ tolerance for risk. The lefty was excellent when healthy this season, pitching to a masterful 1.97 ERA with 9.7 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 in 82 1/3 innings. Ryu, however, missed three months with a significant groin tear and has made just 40 starts over the past four seasons combined. While his performance on a per-inning basis is undoubtedly worth that level of pay in today’s baseball climate, the Dodgers would face the risk that Ryu would accept the QO given concerns other teams would have about surrendering draft compensation and paying a premium for a pitcher with such pronounced durability issues.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Hyun-Jin Ryu Yasmani Grandal

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Indians Outright Brandon Barnes

By Steve Adams | November 2, 2018 at 9:16am CDT

The Indians announced this morning that outfielder Brandon Barnes cleared outright waivers and elected free agency. Cleveland also reinstated Tyler Naquin, Cody Anderson, Nick Goody, James Hoyt, Danny Salazar and Leonys Martin from the 60-day disabled list in a series of procedural moves.

Barnes, 32, went 5-for-19 with a homer in a brief September appearance with Cleveland — his first big league action since the 2016 season. The former Rockies/Astros outfielder is a career .242/.290/.357 hitter in 1274 big league plate appearances and enjoyed a solid season with the Indians’ Triple-A affiliate in 2018 (.273/.347/.447, 14 homers, 19 steals in 132 games).

The right-handed-hitting Barnes has traditionally been a bit more effective against left-handed pitching, as one might expect, and he’s logged considerable experience at all three outfield slots over the course of 14 professional seasons. He’ll likely find a minor league deal in free agency and head to Major League Spring Training as a non-roster invitee in 2019.

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Cleveland Guardians Transactions Brandon Barnes Cody Anderson Danny Salazar James Hoyt Leonys Martin Nick Goody Tyler Naquin

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Cardinals Outright Francisco Pena

By Steve Adams | November 2, 2018 at 8:27am CDT

In addition to trying to pass Greg Garcia through waivers yesterday — Garcia was claimed by the Padres — the Cardinals also put catcher Francisco Pena through outright waivers, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post Dispatch. Pena, unlike Garcia, cleared waivers (as also noted on the team’s transactions log) and will become a minor league free agent.

The 29-year-old Pena registered career-highs in games played (58) and plate appearances (142) this past season while filling in for the injured Yadier Molina. Long regarded as a glove-first option behind the plate, Pena managed just a .203/.239/.271 batting line in his time with the Cards. He’s a career .252/.296/.452 hitter in 1376 plate appearances at the Triple-A level, though, and he’s controlled the running game well in the minors even if he struggled to do so in his limited run with St. Louis. He’ll surely latch on somewhere this offseason on a minor league deal, as there’s never enough catching depth to go around in the Majors and he’s a viable third or fourth option to bring up to the big leagues in the event of injuries.

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St. Louis Cardinals Transactions Francisco Pena

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Latest On Cole Hamels’ Option, Cubs’ Payroll

By Steve Adams | November 2, 2018 at 7:43am CDT

Nov. 2: ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets that other teams have gotten the sense that the Cubs’ payroll flexibility is considerably more limited this offseason than many might expect. The sense, per Olney, is that the team will have to “spend very carefully to affect upgrades for the 2019 season.”

That’d explain to an extent why the Cubs would prefer to shed additional salary before electing to retain Hamels. It’d be a departure from standard operating procedure for Epstein & Co., and from a broader perspective, it does raise some questions about the team’s ability to play for top-of-the-market free agents.

Nov. 1: The Cubs still hope to keep Cole Hamels, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter link), but there may be some steps taken before formally bringing him back. A multi-year contract between the two sides, at this point, is “unlikely,” per Rosenthal, who notes that the Cubs might make a trade to clear some salary off the books before exercising their $20MM option on Hamels.

It’s not immediately clear why the Cubs would feel the need to shed salary before picking up the option. Chicago dipped under the luxury tax threshold this past season, and Hamels’ $20MM salary for the 2019 campaign wouldn’t have any bearing on the team’s 2018 luxury tax ledger. Beyond that, Chicago appears poised to spend in perhaps significant fashion this offseason as president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, GM Jed Hoyer and the rest of the front office look to upgrade a roster that fell shy of expectations when it lost the National League Wild Card game to the Rockies. Given the fact that they’re already likely to add to the payroll, it’s curious to see the suggestion that salary must be shed before free agency truly begins in earnest.

That’s not to say that there isn’t salary the Cubs would prefer to jettison. The remaining $100MM+ on the contracts of Yu Darvish and Jason Heyward certainly aren’t movable right now, but the remaining $25.5MM on Tyler Chatwood’s contract could perhaps be flipped for a different bad contract (or paid down to some extent in a salary dump deal). The Cubs would probably prefer not to pay $5MM for Brandon Kintzler’s 2019 season, either, after the righty struggled in Chicago following a trade from the Nationals.

However, while it’s natural that the Chicago front office would want to shed some of those onerous financial commitments, it’s unclear why they’d need to move any money before picking up Hamels’ option. Exercising Hamels’ option would push the Cubs’ payroll well north of the $206MM luxury tax line for the upcoming season, but there’s been no indication that remaining south of that line is any sort of target for the organization. And even if the team isn’t comfortable with the idea of adding Hamels at $20MM and then spending aggressively in free agency, the Cubs could simply exercise Hamels’ option and then look for means by which to shed some unwanted contracts (e.g. Chatwood, Kintzler) after the fact.

Perhaps there’s more at play here than meets the eye — speculatively speaking, ownership may want a rotation piece cleared out before committing such a lofty payday to Hamels, for instance — but the takeaway that the two sides aren’t likely to strike up a multi-year pact is significant in and of itself. There’s been some speculation that Hamels and the Cubs could work out a multi-year arrangement that would lower the annual rate but still promise Hamels additional guaranteed money. That scenario, it seems, will not come to fruition.

The Cubs, then, are faced with the decision of agreeing to pay Hamels $20MM next season or opting for a $6MM buyout. The Rangers are on the hook for that buyout money as part of the trade that sent Hamels to Chicago in the first place, so while the opportunity exists for the Cubs to swoop back in and re-sign Hamels even after he hits the open market, one would imagine that the Rangers would take some umbrage to that scenario, even if there’s technically no wrongdoing on the Cubs’ behalf.

Frankly, this dilemma for the Cubs was largely unforeseeable at the time of the trade; when the deal went through, it looked like little more than a glorified salary dump that would give the Cubs a durable back-of-the-rotation starter. Hamels’ massive home/road splits gave some hope that he could fare better in a new environment, but few would’ve expected that he’d return to borderline ace status following a change of scenery. That’s precisely what happened, though, as the soon-to-be 35-year-old lefty allowed just five runs through his first seven starts in Chicago and posted an overall 2.36 ERA in 76 1/3 innings after the trade. Hamels benefited from an unsustainable 82.3 percent strand rate, so some regression is to be expected, but he was a vastly better pitcher with the Cubs — so much so that the $20MM option to which few paid any mind at the time of the deal is now a fascinating wrinkle to the onset of free agency as the deadline to make a decision looms.

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Chicago Cubs Cole Hamels

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Mariners, Marco Gonzales Agree To Two-Year Deal

By Steve Adams and George Miller | November 1, 2018 at 7:14pm CDT

7:14pm: Heyman tweets that Gonzales agreed to drop his grievance, which could have increased his service time and, consequently, his earnings, in exchange for a current salary greater than that of a typical player with his service time.

6:13pm: According to Heyman, part of the explanation for the abnormally high value of Gonzales’ deal is the existence of a previous grievance from his time with the Cardinals, which is still pending (Twitter link). The grievance reportedly concerns the timing of a demotion. The outcome of this dispute may alter Gonzales’ service time and therefore his earning power, which would explain the $1.9MM figure.

4:40pm: The Mariners have agreed to a highly unusual two-year contract with lefty Marco Gonzales, reports Fancred’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The contract promises Gonzales a total of $1.9MM despite the fact that Gonzales is still two full years from reaching arbitration. Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that Gonzales will earn $900K in 2019 and $1MM in 2020.

Presumably, then, there’s some type of club option associated with the deal that will give the Seattle organization the right to control at least one of Gonzales’ arbitration seasons at a predetermined rate. Beyond that, it’s not entirely clear why the Mariners would bump Gonzales’ pay to this extent; he earned just north of the league minimum in 2018 and could’ve been given only minimal raises over that sum in both of the next two seasons. While it’s only a minor difference, the Mariners are effectively promising as much as an additional $700-800K with this deal.

Gonzales, 27 in February, emerged in 2018 as a quality rotation piece for a Seattle team that was in desperate need of arms. While some raised an eyebrow when Seattle traded slugging outfield prospect Tyler O’Neill to St. Louis in order to acquire Gonzales, the lefty delivered plenty of value to the Mariners in his first full season with the organization. Through 166 2/3 innings (29 starts), Gonzales pitched to an even 4.00 ERA with 7.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, 0.92 HR/9 and a 44.9 percent ground-ball rate.

There’s also yet some reason to believe that Gonzales has more in the tank. His pristine control helped to offset his average strikeout tendencies, prompting metrics like FIP (3.43), xFIP (3.49) and SIERA (3.81) to view his 2018 results even more favorably. Meanwhile, he induced swings on pitches out of the strike zone at a whopping 35.9 percent clip — a mark that ranked fifth in the Majors and trailed only Patrick Corbin, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco and Miles Mikolas. That speaks to the deception that Gonzales brings to the table and suggests that there could eventually be more strikeouts — or at least more weak contact — in the future for the southpaw.

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Seattle Mariners Transactions Marco Gonzales

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Astros To Decline Option On Will Harris

By Steve Adams | November 1, 2018 at 5:00pm CDT

The Astros have declined their club option on right-handed reliever Will Harris, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports reports (via Twitter). Harris’ option would’ve paid him $5.5MM had it been exercised. He won’t become a free agent, however, as he has not yet reached six year of Major League service time. As such, Harris will remain under Astros control as an arbitration-eligible player. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him at a $3.6MM salary for the coming season, so it’s not surprising to see the ’Stros decline an option that would’ve paid him a considerably larger sum.

The 34-year-old Harris still seems like a safe bet to return to the ’Stros in 2019 — albeit at a lower rate. Like Collin McHugh before him, Harris was a scrapheap pickup off the waiver wire who found great success upon landing in Houston. In four seasons with the Astros, he’s pitched to a 2.58 ERA in 237 innings and averaged 9.6 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9 along the way.

His performance took a step backward in 2018, though looking past his still-solid 3.49 ERA, Harris’ 10.2 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.48 HR/9, 49.7 percent ground-ball rate, 13.8 percent swinging-strike rate and 34.6 percent chase rate on out-of-zone pitches were all legitimately excellent.

If and when the Astros do tender Harris a contract for the 2019 campaign, he’ll go through the arbitration process this winter and then become a free agent at the conclusion of the 2019 campaign.

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Houston Astros Transactions Will Harris

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Ryan Lavarnway Clears Waivers, Elects Free Agency

By Steve Adams | November 1, 2018 at 4:55pm CDT

Pirates catcher Ryan Lavarnway has elected free agency after clearing outright waivers, reports MLB.com’s Adam Berry (Twitter link). The 31-year-old veteran spent the 2018 season with Pittsburgh’s Triple-A affiliate in Indianapolis and received a call to the Majors in September, going 4-for-6 with a double in pinch-hitting duties down the stretch.

Once a well-regarded prospect with the Red Sox, Lavarnway has bounced around the league over the past few seasons, seeing occasional time in the Majors but spending considerably more time in Triple-A. He’s a career .208/.268/.326 hitter in 426 MLB plate appearances and a .276/.366/.431 hitter in 1865 PAs at the Triple-A level. He figures to have interest as a depth option in minor league free agency this winter and will likely get an invite to come to Spring Training with a team in 2019.

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Pittsburgh Pirates Transactions Ryan Lavarnway

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Cubs Exercise Club Option On Pedro Strop

By Steve Adams | November 1, 2018 at 4:43pm CDT

The Cubs have exercised their 2019 club option on right-hander Pedro Strop, the team announced. He’ll earn $6.25MM for the upcoming 2019 campaign and will be a free agent next offseason, barring a further extension of his contract.

It was an easy call for the Cubs to retain Strop on a relatively modest one-year commitment, as the righty turned in a stellar 2.26 ERA with 8.6 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 0.6 HR/9 and a 46.1 percent grounder rate through 59 2/3 innings of work. Strop did miss some time late in the season due to a hamstring injury, but he returned to pitch for the Cubs in the National League Wild Card game despite not being 100 percent at the time. President of baseball operations Theo Epstein told reporters after the fact that Strop’s gutty performance exemplified why the right-hander was “such a big part of the heartbeat of this team.”

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Chicago Cubs Transactions Pedro Strop

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Rays Sign Sandy Gaston

By Steve Adams | November 1, 2018 at 4:15pm CDT

The Rays have formally announced the signing of hard-throwing Cuban pitching prospect Sandy Gaston. The 16-year-old (17 in December) showcased for big league clubs at Marlins Park alongside Victor Victor Mesa and Victor Mesa Jr. in early October and, as of last week, was reported to be nearing a deal with the Tampa Bay organization. Jorge Ebro of El Nuevo Herald has previously reported that the would-be agreement was believed to include a hefty $2.6MM signing bonus. Slightly more specifically, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that the official bonus checks in at $2.61MM.

At last check, the Rays were reported to have about $3.5MM in their international bonus pool, meaning the signing of Gaston will account for the majority of their remaining resources. In return for their investment, the Rays will secure the rights to a young pitcher who ranked 16th among international prospects, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, and 24th on this year’s class in the eyes of Baseball America’s Ben Badler.

Already listed at 6’3″ and 205 pounds, Gaston’s greatest asset is a blazing fastball that routinely sits in the upper 90s and has reached 100 mph. His secondary offerings are said to lack consistency, as one might expect from a still-developing arm in his teens, and he’s still working to refine his command. Badler’s report on him notes that some scouts who’ve seen Gaston more recently have come away with the impression that his delivery is more under control, though he still notes that Gaston bears similarity to another flamethrowing teenager who has yet to pan out — former Marlins No. 2 overall draft pick Tyler Kolek. That’s not an indictment on Gaston’s future, of course, but rather a means of illustrating that there’s a fair bit of risk associated with Gaston despite his considerable upside.

 

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2018-19 International Prospect Signings 2018-19 International Prospects Tampa Bay Rays Transactions Sandy Gaston

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