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Fantasy Baseball Subscriber Chat With Nicklaus Gaut

By Tim Dierkes | April 24, 2025 at 9:54am CDT

Nicklaus Gaut will be talking fantasy baseball with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers today at 11am central time.  Get your question in early or participate in the live event at the link below!

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MLB Mailbag: Starting Pitcher Trade Candidates, Retirements, Giants, Rockies, Mets

By Tim Dierkes | April 23, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into potential Giants trade targets, long shot front of the rotation trade candidates this summer, players who might retire after the season, and much more.

Todd asks:

Since the Giants have done so much better than expected, chances of them doing something significant before the trade deadline seem likely. Who do you expect the Giants to be pursuing, or at least who should they be pursuing?

The Giants sit at 15-9 with a 47% chance at the playoffs.  I agree they'll be looking to upgrade at the deadline.

Offensively, left field and first base seem like potential areas to improve.  Heliot Ramos, manning left field, hasn't hit much over his last 200 PA dating back to last year.  The Giants have some options in Triple-A, but none that seem clearly better than the likely 2-WAR-ish Ramos.  Looking through the various unlikely playoff teams' outfields, I could see Taylor Ward being a decent target.  Still, I'm not convinced he's better than Ramos.  We'll get to Luis Robert Jr. later in this mailbag.

Bryce Eldridge homered in his first at-bat of the year yesterday, and if he gets to Triple-A quickly and hits well, I could see a fast track to the Majors.  The bottom line is that I don't see an obvious position player for the Giants to target - yet.

As I said last week, the Giants will need more starting pitching behind Logan Webb.  Landen Roupp and Justin Verlander both pitched well against the Angels over the weekend.  Robbie Ray is entrenched salary-wise.  Jordan Hicks could wind up in the bullpen, though he would probably not prefer that.

Sandy Alcantara is the name on everyone's lips, and he's back throwing 98 and getting groundballs, though he hasn't actually pitched well through four starts.  Sonny Gray could be interesting, though there's no suggestion he'd waive his no-trade clause.  Which other pitchers might be available at the deadline?

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Free Agent Prediction Contest Winners Notified

By Tim Dierkes | April 22, 2025 at 9:26am CDT

4,344 people entered into our 2024-25 MLB Free Agent Prediction Contest, and only one was able to manage a batting average over .230.  Congratulations to Allan Cameron, who correctly predicted the destinations of 13 out of 48 free agents for a robust .271 average!  No one else topped 11.  Allan was correct on Juan Soto, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Jack Flaherty, Anthony Santander, Sean Manaea, Teoscar Hernandez, Christian Walker, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, Michael Soroka, Shane Bieber, and Shinnosuke Ogasawara.

For his excellent prognostication skills, Allan will receive $500 plus a free one-year subscription to Trade Rumors Front Office.  The top three won cash prizes, and the top 15 received the Front Office subscription.  All winners have been notified via email.  As per our rules, David Robertson and Spencer Turnbull were excluded from contestants’ batting averages, as those two pitchers were unsigned as of Opening Day.

Congratulations to Allan.  Look out for the 2025-26 MLB Free Agent Prediction Contest this November!

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2024-25 MLB Free Agents

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MLB Mailbag: Arenado, Rangers, Red Sox, Angels, Giants

By Tim Dierkes | April 16, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

Today's mailbag gets into Nolan Arenado's future with the Cardinals, offensive struggles for the Rangers and Red Sox, hot starts for the Angels and Giants, and much more.

Sam asks:

Arenado is off to a pretty good start with his surface level stats but his batted ball profile is still pretty bad. Barring an injury to a third baseman on a contender, is he going to be playing for the Cardinals for the next 3 years?

Arenado, 34 today, has an excellent 136 wRC+ through 74 plate appearances.  His Statcast numbers have always been middling since he was traded to St. Louis four years ago.  As you know, the Cardinals tried to move Arenado during the offseason, both to save money and open up playing time for younger players.  Arenado wasn't willing to say yes when asked to approve a trade to the Astros in December, and no deal materialized with the four other teams on the third baseman's list.

In February, Katie Woo of The Athletic reported that the Cardinals "had conversations with at least nine organizations" about Arenado during the offseason.  Woo said the other four teams on Arenado's list besides the Astros were the Dodgers, Red Sox, Padres, and Yankees.  The rigidity of Arenado's list is confusing.  He said, "I don’t see myself changing that list ever. I have a family now. … To be willing to pick up my family and move them, it has to be something that’s worth it."  Arenado is clearly not bound entirely by geography, having chosen teams on both the East and West coast.  But let's look at some playoff odds from when the season opened:

  • Astros: 53.5%
  • Dodgers: 97.6%
  • Red Sox: 56.2%
  • Padres: 35.1%
  • Yankees: 62.3%
  • Cardinals: 23.2%
  • Tigers: 46.6%
  • Royals: 41.8%
  • Angels: 10.5%

Is it fair to say that for Arenado to leave the comfort of St. Louis he needs what he considers a strong chance at winning the World Series, but he might accept a lesser chance for a team near where he grew up, such as the Padres?  What makes this tricky is that Arenado seems to have developed his own playoff odds.  Playoff odds are not reliable in the best case, and Arenado is probably worse at this than FanGraphs.

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Fantasy Baseball Subscriber Chat With Nicklaus Gaut

By Tim Dierkes | April 14, 2025 at 10:44am CDT

Nicklaus Gaut will be talking fantasy baseball with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers today at 11am central time.  Get your question in early or participate in the live event at the link below!

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MLB Mailbag: PTBNL, Brewers, Mariners, Romano, Pages, Baty

By Tim Dierkes | April 9, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

This week's mailbag gets into PTBNL trades, the Brewers' recent trade history, the Mariners' inactivity, and questions about players such as Jordan Romano, Andy Pages, and Brett Baty.

Scott asks:

When a trade happens that includes a Player to be named later or cash considerations, like between the Red Sox and Brewers, how is it determined which goes - a player or cash? Seems like that would have to be predetermined to ease the negotiations, but the implication in the title implies it's a decision to be made later?

I posed Scott's question to an team executive friend, and he kindly gave a great in-depth reply.  Here it is:

"There are two PTBNL / Cash constructs that are most common. The first is where one of the clubs involved in the trade gets to choose one or more players from an agreed upon list. The agreed upon list is determined at the time of the initial trade. The club receiving the PTBNL has the right to instead receive “alternative cash considerations” that cannot exceed $100k. The option to receive cash comes into play only if the club with the right to receive the PTBNL decides they don’t want any of the players within the previously agreed upon grouping. This outcome could occur if one or more of those players suffers an injury or other plight whereby they are no longer of interest to the club holding the right to acquire them. By way of example, if Team A has the right to pick either Player X or Player Y as the PTBNL, but both players have suffered significant injuries since the time the trade was agreed upon, then Team A might rather take the cash rather than an injured player.

The second primary construct where you see a PTBNL or Cash involved in a trade occurs if the trade is really just for cash, but the team set to receive the cash wants to “dress it up” a little bit. This situation could occur if the team is trading away a notable player and needs to make it look like there’s a more significant return than simply money coming back their way. In these situations, the two clubs involved in the trade can agree to phrase the trade as a PTBNL or Cash despite both clubs agreeing that the return will be cash only.

A PTBNL is not always a low-level player. The only restriction is that a PTBNL cannot be someone who has appeared on an active Major League roster between the time the trade was agreed to and the time he is sent to his new club."

Zack asks:

How long of a leash should the Phillies have with Jordan Romano? He has lost velocity on his fastball and slider and he looks shaky when on the mound. Maybe it's a mechanics issue he can work through? He looks like he's searching for his form on the mound, I hope he can figure it out as we need him!

The tough thing is that Romano arguably hasn't been an effective reliever since June of 2023.  Rob Thomson hasn't used Romano in the club's highest-leverage situations thus far, but he still was Dave Dombrowski's main offseason bullpen addition.

Romano's elbow inflammation surfaced in March 2024.  He debuted in mid-April last year but was done after 15 appearances once the injury resurfaced.  He wound up having arthroscopic elbow surgery in early July.  The Blue Jays, who knew Romano best, didn't want him back at what would've likely been his same $7.75MM salary.  Around the Winter Meetings, Dombrowski gave Romano about $750K more than that.

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Fantasy Baseball Subscriber Chat With Nicklaus Gaut

By Tim Dierkes | April 7, 2025 at 10:40am CDT

Nicklaus Gaut will be talking fantasy baseball with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers today at 11am central time.  Get your question in early or participate in the live event at the link below!

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Fantasy Baseball Subscriber Chat With Nicklaus Gaut

By Tim Dierkes | March 30, 2025 at 6:30pm CDT

Nicklaus Gaut is off the IL after a wrist injury, and he'll be chatting live with Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers Monday at 11am central time.  Get your question in early or participate in the live event at the link below!

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Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | March 19, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

The White Sox hired a new manager and cashed in Garrett Crochet for prospects, otherwise making affordable, low-ceiling additions.

Major League Signings

  • Martin Perez, SP: one year, $5MM.  Includes $10MM mutual option for 2026 with a $1.5MM buyout
  • Josh Rojas, 3B: one year, $3.5MM
  • Mike Tauchman, LF/RF: one year, $1.95MM
  • Michael A. Taylor, CF: one year, $1.95MM
  • Austin Slater, LF/RF: one year, $1.75MM
  • Bryse Wilson, SP/RF: one year, $1.05MM

2025 spending: $15.2MM
Total spending: $15.2MM

Option Decisions

  • Team declined $25MM club option on 3B Yoan Moncada, paying $5MM buyout
  • Team declined $7.5MM club option on C Max Stassi, paying $500K buyout

Trades and Claims

  • Claimed RP Penn Murfee off waivers from Astros
  • Took P Shane Smith from Brewers in Rule 5 draft
  • Acquired C Kyle Teel, OF Braden Montgomery, IF Chase Meidroth, and SP Wikelman Gonzalez from Red Sox for SP Garrett Crochet
  • Acquired C Matt Thaiss from Cubs for cash
  • Acquired cash from Angels for C Chuckie Robinson
  • Acquired RP Cam Booser from Red Sox for SP Yhoiker Fajardo
  • Acquired RP Tyler Gilbert from Phillies for RP Aaron Combs
  • Acquired cash from Padres for RP Ron Marinaccio
  • Claimed SS Jacob Amaya off waivers from Orioles
  • Claimed RP Brandon Eisert off waivers from Rays
  • Claimed P Owen White off waivers from Yankees

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Bobby Dalbec, Omar Narvaez, James Karinchak, Brandon Drury, Tristan Gray, Mike Clevinger, Travis Jankowski, Joey Gallo (since released)

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

  • Garrett Crochet, Yoan Moncada, Max Stassi, Gavin Sheets, Nicky Lopez, Enyel De Los Santos, Braden Shewmake

Chris Getz was hired as White Sox executive vice president/GM in August 2023, inheriting manager Pedro Grifol from previous longtime GM Rick Hahn.  After about a year in the GM chair with his team sporting a historically bad 28-89 record on the 2024 season, Getz fired Grifol and installed Grady Sizemore as interim manager for the remainder of the campaign.  Managers can occasionally ride out rebuilding years, proving themselves on soft factors and retaining the job when the team gets good.  The Orioles' Brandon Hyde did this.  Grifol, however, did not warrant that level of faith.

Given a clean offseason slate to choose his own manager, Getz ran an extensive search that included Will Venable, Daniel Descalso, Phil Nevin, George Lombard, A.J. Ellis, Donnie Ecker, Danny Lehmann, Clayton McCullough, Craig Albernaz, and many others whose names did not reach the media.  Getz had competition from the Marlins on several of these candidates.  He ultimately chose Venable on October 29th.  McCullough landed the Marlins gig not long after, while Nevin still landed with Chicago but as a special assistant in their player development department.

The Princeton-educated Venable became the 44th manager in White Sox history, and he takes over a team that has nowhere to go but up.  Getz himself was the beneficiary of Jerry Reinsdorf's "I didn’t have to interview these people, because I knew them all" hiring approach, which also netted Tony La Russa as manager in October 2020.  So it's always a relief to see the White Sox conduct an extensive search as they did with Venable.

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2024-25 Offseason In Review Chicago White Sox Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership

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Offseason In Review: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | March 11, 2025 at 11:58pm CDT

The Cubs added star power in the Kyle Tucker trade, but otherwise made modest additions despite several other big swings.

Major League Signings

  • Matthew Boyd, SP: two years, $29MM.  Includes $15MM mutual option for 2027 with a $2MM buyout
  • Carson Kelly, C: two years, $11.5MM.  Includes $7.5MM mutual option for 2027 with a $1.5MM buyout
  • Justin Turner, 1B/DH: one year, $6MM.  Includes a $10MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout
  • Colin Rea, SP/RP: one year, $5MM.  Includes $6MM club option with a $750K buyout
  • Caleb Thielbar, RP: one year, $2.75MM
  • Jon Berti, 3B/2B: one year, $2MM

2025 spending: $33.25MM
Total spending: $56.25MM

Option Decisions

  • Cody Bellinger, RF/CF/1B: exercised $27.5MM player option for 2025
  • Club declined $10MM mutual option with LHP Drew Smyly

Trades and Claims

  • Claimed RP Rob Zastryzny off waivers from Brewers.  Zastryzny was later outrighted, elected free agency, and signed with the Yankees.
  • Acquired RP Eli Morgan from Guardians for OF Alfonsin Rosario
  • Acquired C Matt Thaiss from Angels for cash considerations
  • Selected 3B/SS Gage Workman from Tigers in Rule 5 draft
  • Acquired RF Kyle Tucker from Astros for IF Isaac Paredes, P Hayden Wesneski, and 3B Cam Smith
  • Acquired cash from White Sox for C Matt Thaiss
  • Acquired P Cody Poteet from Yankees for OF/1B Cody Bellinger and $5MM
  • Acquired IF Vidal Brujan from Marlins for 1B Matt Mervis
  • Acquired RP Matt Festa from Rangers for cash considerations.  Festa was later outrighted, elected free agency, and signed with the Rangers.
  • Acquired cash considerations from Mariners for IF Miles Mastrobuoni
  • Acquired cash considerations from Yankees for P Michael Arias
  • Acquired RP Ryan Pressly and $5.5MM from Astros for SP Juan Bello
  • Acquired cash from Orioles for IF Luis Vazquez
  • Acquired RP Ryan Brasier and cash considerations from Dodgers for a player to be named later or cash
  • Acquired cash considerations from Mets for OF Alexander Canario

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Trevor Richards, Reese McGuire, Brad Keller, Nicky Lopez, Chris Flexen, Travis Jankowski, Phil Bickford, Ben Heller, Yency Almonte

Extensions

  • None

Notable Losses

  • Paredes, Wesneski, Smith, Adbert Alzolay, Patrick Wisdom, Drew Smyly, Nick Madrigal, Mike Tauchman

Much like the previous winter with Marcus Stroman, this Cubs offseason kicked off with a pivotal player option decision that would affect their financial flexibility.  This time, Cody Bellinger elected to take the $27.5MM owed to him in 2025 in lieu of a $2.5MM buyout, which also preserves a $25MM option on 2026 with a $5MM buyout.  Bellinger's decision was not surprising, as he's now positioned himself to decline the '26 option having collected a total of $32.5MM for '25.

The Athletic's Patrick Mooney suggested a couple of times early in the offseason that the Cubs were seeking a starting pitcher who "could be trusted in a playoff game."  Nonetheless, it wasn't long before Mooney's colleague Sahadev Sharma wrote that "the top tier of the starting pitching market has been ruled out" for the club.  Blake Snell, Max Fried, and Corbin Burnes would go on to sign contracts ranging from $182-218MM (though some included deferred money), and the Cubs were seemingly never a factor on them due to what I assume are philosophical objections to five-plus year commitments to thirty-something-aged free agent starters.

Instead, Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made a pre-Winter Meetings strike for 34-year-old southpaw Matthew Boyd.  Boyd was available on a two-year contract because of his age and injury history.  After totaling 355 2/3 innings for the 2018-19 Tigers, Boyd has not reached 80 innings in a season since.

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2024-25 Offseason In Review Chicago Cubs Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Membership

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