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Breaking Down The Hughes, Kazmir Signings

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The Twins agreed to sign Phil Hughes to a three-year, $24MM deal on Saturday, which would have been the largest free agent expenditure in their history had they not committed $49MM to Ricky Nolasco a few days prior.  I don't think anyone would argue that the Twins needed to add a pitcher or two like Hughes, who has shown promise in his career and has yet to turn 28.  We know Hughes will be better away from Yankee Stadium, but it's hard to say how much better, as he's an extreme flyball pitcher no matter where he goes. 

Hughes had a serious bout of shoulder inflammation in a lost 2011 season, but he's otherwise shown good health even if he's not an innings guy.  Left alone to take his turn every fifth day in a smaller market, with the security of the first multiyear deal of his career, it's feasible that Hughes could put up 180 innings of 4.25 ball.  That would be good value for $8MM a season in today's market.  I found Hughes' decision to go for a three-year deal coming off a bad season to be an interesting one.  Prior to free agency, we've seen more and more young players choose multiyear security over maximizing their dollars going year to year.  I'm guessing Hughes would have signed one of those types of arbitration-year extensions after 2010 had he been with a more willing team.  Some pitchers will bet on their talent with a straight one-year deal and get right back out on the market, accepting the added pressure of having free agency looming again.  Others, like Francisco Liriano last offseason, hedge their bets with a two-year deal.  Hughes went for the comfort of three years, made possible in part by his youth compared to the typical free agent.

Scott Kazmir is an example of a pitcher who hedged his bet, by signing a two-year, $22MM deal with the Athletics.  It seems likely that one year at $12-13MM was available to him.  But as someone who hadn't had big league success since 2008 prior to 2013, it would have been very difficult for Kazmir to eschew multiple years in an attempt to maximize his career earnings.  As it stands, Kazmir did much better than the two-year, $16MM contract I guessed in September.  As a relatively young southpaw who returned to throwing hard and missing bats this year, Kazmir was a free agent you could dream on.  And teams love to dream in free agency, where in a limited market certain players start looking better and better.  Only in free agency can a team wipe out three or four years of data suggesting Kazmir was no longer an MLB-caliber pitcher, pointing only to his last 158 innings to project what he'll do in the next few seasons.  Kazmir still seems like a wild card for 2014-15, but $22MM is not a huge commitment for an MLB team these days.

43 Players Non-Tendered

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43 players joined the free agent ranks today after being non-tendered Monday by their respective teams.  MLBTR's Non-Tender tracker has the full list, which includes J.P. Arencibia, John Axford, Andrew Bailey, Ronald Belisario, Chris Coghlan, Chris Getz, Tommy Hanson, Jeremy Hefner, Daniel Hudson, Jayson Nix, Xavier Paul, Omar Quintanilla, Sandy Rosario, Ryan Webb, Jerome Williams, and Wesley Wright.

All those with at least 50 plate appearances or 20 innings pitched in the Majors last year have been added to MLBTR's free agent list and tracker.  For a look at the players who have avoided arbitration so far, check out our arbitration tracker.

Breaking Down The Twins’ Ricky Nolasco Signing

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The Twins agreed to the largest free agent contract in franchise history last week, inking Ricky Nolasco to a four-year, $49MM deal with a fifth-year vesting option.  Nolasco, 31 in December, projects as the team's Opening Day starter in 2014.  What did the Twins get for their investment?

FanGraphs' standard wins above replacement metric is not a great one to use for Nolasco.  By FanGraphs WAR, Nolasco has been solid over the last three years, accumulating about 2.9 per year.  FanGraphs WAR, however, uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), and Nolasco is notorious for posting an ERA above his FIP.  He's done so in every season since 2009.  In those five seasons, his ERA has been more than half a run higher than his FIP every time except for 2013.

The important questions for the Twins are why Nolasco's ERA has been consistently higher than his strikeout, walk, and home run rates suggest, and if that will remain the case over most of the next four years.  From 2009-13, the typical NL starter has stranded around 72% of his baserunners.  Nolasco's strand rate in that time is a bit shy of 68%, worst in MLB among those with at least 700 innings.  Perhaps that's unfair, as it's roping in some really low strand rates from 2009 and '11.  If we look at just 2012-13, Nolasco is at 70.1%, 16th worst in MLB among those with 300 innings.  Nolasco has a 4.08 ERA in that time, versus a 3.60 FIP.  A metric that treats Nolasco as a 3.60 ERA pitcher is overstating his value.

Nolasco's strand rate problems stem from his performance with men on base.  His strikeout rate falls below six per nine innings and his walks jump up to around three, even in his successful 2013 campaign.  If the Twins don't find a way to address this, they might have a 4.50 ERA pitcher on their hands from the start.  FanGraphs has another version of WAR called RA9-WAR, which essentially uses a pitcher's actual runs allowed instead of his FIP.  That metric suggests Nolasco was a two-win pitcher in 2013, his best season in years.  If Nolasco begins at two wins, this contract is not good value even if a win on the 2013-14 free agent market costs $6.2MM.  I'm not comfortable valuing a pitcher based on ERA or FIP, however.  The valuation changes drastically if we split the difference and project Nolasco as a 2.5 win pitcher in 2014.  In that case, I think this can be an even money deal, though I don't have a lot of confidence in predicting the annual inflation of the free agent market.

Nolasco's contract clearly resembles Edwin Jackson's four-year, $52MM deal from the Cubs last winter.  Jackson pitched the first year of his deal at age 29 as opposed to 31 for Nolasco.  While Jackson got about 6% more than Nolasco in guaranteed money, Nolasco's 2018 vesting option adds value even if he's a long shot to trigger it.  Another similarity is that the Cubs did not seem primed for contention in the first year of Jackson's deal, nor will the Twins be picked as division favorites for 2014.  Labeling certain teams non-contenders prior to the season often proves wrong, to be fair.  Nolasco must be viewed as a win-now signing for the Twins, since he'll likely provide the most return in the first few years of the deal.  A few weeks ago, Cubs president Theo Epstein said of the Jackson signing, "Given the situation, I think we could have been more patient."  The same may prove true of the Twins and Nolasco.

2013 was Nolasco's first season with a sub-4.00 ERA since '08, and the timing was excellent for the pitcher and agent Matt Sosnick.  The early July trade to the Dodgers was a big boost to Nolasco's value, removing the possibility of draft pick compensation and giving him a bigger spotlight.  For the Twins, the Nolasco contract has little upside, and represented the market price for mid-to-back rotation innings.

Mets Sign Chris B. Young

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The Mets have stated a desire to add some offense to their club, and they kicked off their free agent spending by inking veteran outfielder Chris Young to a one-year contract that is reportedly worth $7.25MM. The Mets officially announced the signing of Young, a client of Reynolds Sports Management, Tuesday afternoon.

Young-Chris-Brandon

Young spent last season with the A's after being acquired in the three-team deal with the Marlins and Diamondbacks that sent Heath Bell to Arizona. Oakland turned down an $11MM option on Young after the powerful right-handed swinger slashed just .200/.280/.379. Young still managed to club 12 homers, and part of his downturn in batting average to do with a career-worst .237 batting average on balls in play. The low average can't be chalked up solely to poor luck though, as Young's strikeout rate climbed to nearly 25 percent and his 17.5 percent infield flyball rate was the ninth highest in baseball among players with 350 plate appearances.

Young typically grades out as a strong defender and is capable of playing all three outfield spots, making him a valuable pickup for defensive purposes alone. He also owns a career .262/.363/.474 batting line against left-handed pitching. If he can cut down the pop-ups and punchouts a bit, Young could return to the form that saw him average 3.7 fWAR and 4.2 rWAR from 2010-12 with the D-Backs.

Obviously, with Young coming off a poor season, the budget-conscious Athletics did not make him qualifying offer. The Mets, therefore, aren't required to surrender a draft pick to sign him. The Mets have prioritized adding bats early this offseason, and Young figures to be a low-cost option that will still allow them to pursue bigger fish like Nelson Cruz, Curtis Granderson and Jhonny Peralta.

Jon Heyman of CBS Sports first reported the signing. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweeted that it was a one-year deal, and ESPN's Buster Olney reported the $7.25MM salary (Twitter link).

Steve Adams contributed to this post. Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Breaking Down The Angels’ Joe Smith Signing

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The Angels made the largest relief signing of the offseason so far, committing $15.75MM over three years to right-handed sidearmer Joe Smith.  Any sizeable commitment to a reliever will be poorly received with sabermetric analysts, but did the Angels at least get the top setup man Smith's contract suggests?

Smith may have been paid based on his ERAs for the Indians in the past three seasons: 2.01, 2.96, and 2.29.  Fangraphs wins above replacement, which uses fielding independent pitching (FIP) in its calculation, does not credit Smith for those ERAs, giving him 2.0 WAR over the three seasons.  The main components of FIP are strikeouts, walks, and home runs allowed, and Smith has excelled in only one of those.  Given his strong groundball tendencies, Smith has allowed just ten home runs in 197 innings dating back to 2011.  Wins above replacement can also be calculated using runs allowed instead of FIP, and that figure credits Smith for a healthy 4.7 WAR over his last three seasons.

The Angels aren't interested in paying Smith for what he did for the Indians; he's getting $5.25MM per year from the Halos in hopes of continued sub-3.00 ERAs for 2014-16.  To see how likely that is, we typically turn to estimators like FIP, xFIP, and SIERA, which predict future ERA better than ERA does.  Using Smith's 2011-13 peripheral stats, those estimators spit out figures in the 3.33-3.68 range, well above his actual 2.42 mark.  The estimators are not crediting Smith for one potential skill, though, and that is his consistently low batting average on balls in play (BABIP).

Smith's BABIPs the last three years were .258, .253, and .282.  His career mark is .272.  Compare that to the average reliever, who was at .291 this year.  Smith seems to be better at keeping his BABIP low than other relievers, which is why he's consistently allowed fewer than eight hits per nine innings since 2008.  Smith's career BABIP against right-handed hitters is .259, versus a more normal .298 against left-handed ones.  This makes sense: he's a right-handed sidearmer, and he is able to induce weak contact against same-handed hitters.  This apparent skill has been magnified by his usage, as Smith has faced right-handed hitters two-thirds of the time in his career.

In 2013, 54 non-closer right-handed relievers pitched at least 60 innings, including Smith.  As a group, they faced right-handed hitters about 55% of the time.  In addition to the aforementioned low BABIPs, Smith has been adept at getting right-handed hitters to hit groundballs.  In 2011, Smith began the transition away from being a full-blown right-handed specialist, but he was still shielded from lefty hitters in 2011-12, magnifying his skills against righties and aiding his ERA.  Only in 2013 did Smith graduate from right-handed specialist to general setup man: he faced right-handed hitters only 50.6% of the time.  Indians manager Terry Francona let Smith face left-handed hitters 128 times, easily the most in his career.  The promotion was overdue, as he hadn't been hit too hard by southpaws since 2010.

$5.25MM a year is setup man money.  The Angels invested in Smith after he posted a 2.29 ERA in 63 innings, truly in a setup role for the first time in his career.  However, Smith's low ERA was not due to the usual factors, a low BABIP and a high groundball rate.  His .282 BABIP was his highest since 2007, and his 49.1% groundball rate was the lowest of his career (the latter owing to his facing more lefties).  Instead, a big factor in Smith's 2013 success was his left on base percentage of 86.3%.  Among relievers with at least 60 innings, Smith ranked 14th in baseball.  Almost everyone ahead of Smith on that list struck out more than 27% of batters faced, while Smith was around average at about 21%.  There's no reason to expect Smith to be much better than the relief league average LOB% of 75% going forward.

If ERA alone doesn't convince you Smith is a top setup man, then it's hard to find a particular standout skill he displayed in 2013.  He's not a strikeout guy, he doesn't have great control (especially versus left-handed hitters), and his groundball rate and BABIP weren't anything special this year.  His ERA was low because he stranded 86% of his baserunners.  The Angels probably don't have a reason to expect that to be repeated, so they're left with a guy whose only above average skill might be inducing groundballs from right-handed hitters.  They didn't need to spend $15.75MM to find a guy who can do that, with Matt Albers and Jamey Wright also on the free agent market.  That's not to suggest Albers and Wright are as good as Smith, but with limited payroll flexibility and a need for two starting pitchers, this signing was a questionable allocation of resources for the Halos.

Yankees Make Best Possible Catcher Upgrade In McCann

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When the 2013-2014 offseason is said and done, there are going to be many major signings no one saw coming in September, in terms of the contract or the destination.  The Yankees' five-year, $85MM deal with catcher Brian McCann won't be one of them.  The Yankees were in dire need of catching and a middle of the order bat, they have payroll flexibility, and McCann was easily the best option.

McCann's contract wasn't much beyond expectations, though agent B.B. Abbott did score significant value additions in a full no-trade clause and a sixth-year vesting option.  Not all free agents of this caliber are able to secure full no-trade clauses.  For example, B.J. Upton and Jose Reyes did not.  As for the vesting option, its value will depend on how easily attainable it is.

For the Yankees, McCann is an upgrade on the magnitude of perhaps three wins above replacement, since they had Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart, and Austin Romine on the depth chart at catcher.  He's a good fit for their ballpark, and can transition to a part-time designated hitter role toward the end of the contract.  McCann doesn't turn 30 until February, though, so I doubt he's thinking much about the DH position except as a way to grab some extra at-bats.  Locking down a surefire middle of the order bat was important for the Yankees, as before this signing the heart of their 2014 order was Mark Teixeira and Alfonso Soriano.

The November contract for McCann is also a sign the Yankees will be true to their word about not letting Robinson Cano hold up their offseason.  They've snagged the fourth-best free agent in McCann.  While the lines of communication will surely remain open with Cano, it seems the Yankees will move right along looking at Carlos Beltran and a cast of other top free agents.  The Yankees do have a payroll limit, and as they continue putting free agent notches in their belt, the money available for Cano will have to be reduced.

40-Man Roster Counts

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Many players were added to 40-man rosters with yesterday's deadline, as seen here.  Current counts by team:

AL East

  • Orioles: 36
  • Red Sox: 39
  • Yankees: 39 (does not include Brendan Ryan)
  • Rays: 37
  • Blue Jays: 39

AL Central

  • White Sox: 39
  • Indians: 40 (does not include David Murphy)
  • Tigers: 39
  • Royals: 40 (does not include Jason Vargas)
  • Twins: 39

AL West

  • Astros: 37
  • Angels: 40
  • Athletics: 39
  • Mariners: 38
  • Rangers: 38

NL East

  • Braves: 40
  • Marlins: 39
  • Mets: 40
  • Phillies: 38 (does not include Carlos Ruiz)
  • Nationals: 40

NL Central

  • Cubs: 39
  • Reds: 40 (does not include Skip Schumaker)
  • Brewers: 40
  • Pirates: 40
  • Cardinals: 36

NL West

  • Diamondbacks: 40
  • Rockies: 39 (does not include LaTroy Hawkins)
  • Dodgers: 34
  • Padres: 40
  • Giants: 40 (does not include Javier Lopez)

Rangers, Tigers Address Multiple Issues With Fielder-Kinsler Swap

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The Rangers and Tigers shook up their lineups and payrolls Wednesday night, as the Tigers sent slugger Prince Fielder and $30MM to Texas for second baseman Ian Kinsler.  Here's my take from each team's point of view.

Kinsler, 32 in June, slipped offensively to .266/.334/.418 over the last two seasons.  Is he still above average defensively at second base?  A stat like UZR says no, while The Fielding Bible's defensive runs saved says yes.  In fact, The Fielding Bible's panel of ten experts considers Kinsler the sixth-best defensive second baseman in the game, with half of the panel ranking him fourth or better.  Out of the five players who topped Kinsler defensively, he outhit all except Dustin Pedroia and Ben Zobrist in 2013.  Kinsler might not be the player he was in his mid-20s, which is normal, but he's still close to a top ten second baseman.

Kinsler also has four years and $62MM remaining on his contract, and in a sabermetric sense, he has a decent chance of returning that much value.  Wins above replacement puts a large premium on playing a position like second base decently, as it should, but I don't think the market of 29 other MLB teams viewed Kinsler as a $15.5MM player for each of the next four years.  When the market undervalues your asset, the best move is to keep it, but the Rangers have Jurickson Profar.  21 in February, Profar is MLB-ready and highly regarded around the game, and the Rangers intend to slot him in as their regular second baseman.  The upside is huge, but there's no guarantee he'll be as good as Kinsler over the next couple of years.  He will, however, play at the league minimum.

In Kinsler, the Tigers get a second baseman to replace Omar Infante, who is currently a free agent.  GM Dave Dombrowski indicated last night that Infante was as good as gone regardless of this trade, which is surprising.  Even a three-year, $30MM contract for Infante would have been acceptable value, and the Tigers had that option available to them.  It seems likely the Tigers' motivation in last night's trade was more about getting out from Fielder's contract than acquiring Kinsler.  Fielder is signed through 2020, and with a seven-year, $168MM commitment, the fact that the Tigers had to send $30MM to the Rangers to trade him for a neutral-value asset suggests Fielder had significantly negative trade value.

If the deal was mostly about payroll flexibility, did the Tigers have better options to achieve it?  Could they have signed Infante for $30MM and included $42MM to send Fielder packing for a different, cheaper player such as a quality late-inning reliever?  Such a move could have afforded the Tigers over $90MM in new payroll flexibility, rather than the $76MM they added.  They still would have seen the benefit of moving Miguel Cabrera across the diamond.  However, trading Fielder for a reliever or something similar would have been a tough sell to fans, and even at Jayson Werth money for Fielder it's not as if the Tigers would have found a dozen suitors.

Fielder will play next year at age 30, and had a seven-year, $168MM commitment remaining.  With a disappointing platform year and a draft pick cost attached, could agent Scott Boras have gotten him that contract this offseason?  Add in the fact that Fielder seems much closer to a permanent DH role than he did two years ago, and I think Boras would have fallen short.  It's more plausible that Fielder could have gotten $138MM over seven years, though, and the Rangers didn't have to give up a draft pick.  Plus, even if they overvalue power, the free agent and trade markets didn't offer a first baseman like Fielder this offseason.  Fielder's off-year was about as good as Mike Napoli's 2013 season, which might be Napoli's peak.  Fielder was an elite hitter as recently as 2012, and the Rangers expect him to bounce back closer to that level in 2014.

Fielder serves as a big offensive upgrade for the Rangers at first base, though it's likely they lose offense at second base if they go with Profar.  They've still got flexibility at an outfielder corner, catcher, and designated hitter to add more offense.  I wonder if Brian McCann becomes less viable for them, as the oft-cited general plan to move McCann to DH around the fourth year of his contract may be hampered by the Rangers' need to put Fielder there.

I'm sure Boras will have plenty to say about this deal.  He probably would suggest the Rangers righted a wrong in acquiring Fielder, since they were not able to finish a free agent deal with him two years ago (perhaps due to objections from Nolan Ryan).  While the move creates more opportunity for the Tigers to do a historic pitching contract with another Boras client, Max Scherzer, I think that matters to the agent only in that he can count the Tigers as a more viable suitor once Scherzer reaches free agency after the 2014 season.  

Discounted Josh Johnson Is Low Risk, High Reward For Padres

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The Padres have long held a competitive advantage in that San Diego is a desirable place to play baseball, specifically with a large, pitcher-friendly ballpark.  They can often sign free agent starting pitchers without making the highest bid, as was the case with their one-year, $8MM deal for righty Josh Johnson.

Johnson was limited to 16 starts for the Blue Jays in 2013 due to triceps tightness and a forearm injury, which resulted in arthroscopic elbow surgery in early October.  As explained in our free agent profile, Johnson has had only three healthy seasons in the last five, and the gold standard contract for a pitcher coming off an injury is Ben Sheets' $10MM deal with the Athletics nearly four years ago.  It seems possible Johnson and agent Matt Sosnick could have gotten close to that $10MM mark had they focused on the highest bidder, but the pitcher preferred San Diego for personal reasons.  The Padres got a discount approaching 20%, just for being the Padres.  

Johnson was already a low-risk proposition, since he targeted a one-year deal from the outset as a means of rebuilding value and re-entering free agency after 2014.  The Padres further lowered their risk a bit by acquiring a $4MM club option for 2015 in the event Johnson makes fewer than seven starts in 2014, according to Yahoo's Jeff Passan.  We saw a more drastic version of this clause play out with the Red Sox and John Lackey, as Lackey's league minimum option went into effect when he missed significant time with surgery for a pre-existing elbow injury.  Most likely, Johnson will make at least seven starts in 2014, as he has each season since 2007, when he had Tommy John surgery.  If he doesn't, something serious will have gone wrong, and the Padres may not want to guarantee Johnson even $4MM for 2015.  It would be nice to have the option, though.

Johnson hasn't had an ace-caliber, healthy season since 2010, which is why I think his upside is something closer to 2012's 3.81 ERA rather than the type of season that gets Cy Young votes.  There's still considerable upside for the Padres in this deal, though, as Johnson's earnings top out at $9.25MM for 2014.  The going rate for a #3-4 type starter is around $14MM, and Johnson certainly has that capability for the Padres.

The best part about signing Johnson for the Padres is that they are not relying on him.  As Passan explains, they've got a surplus of starters with Ian Kennedy, Andrew Cashner, Eric Stults, Tyson Ross, and others, so if Johnson goes bust it won't ruin their chances of having a good rotation.

Latest On Gavin Floyd’s Elbow Rehab

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Gavin Floyd's rehabilitation from May surgery to repair his ulnar collateral ligament and torn flexor tendon in his elbow is progressing extremely well, agent Mike Moye tells MLBTR.  Moye says Floyd escalated his throwing program to three sets at 180 feet this week and is experiencing almost no soreness.  Based on discussions with his doctor and trainer, Floyd's mound program should begin no later than December 7th and possibly sooner.  Floyd's mound program will likely follow a two to three month timeline.  Barring an unforseen setback, Floyd should be ready to take the mound in game action prior to Opening Day 2014.

Floyd, 31 in January, made five starts this year prior to the injury.  Prior to 2013, he made at least 29 starts in each of the five previous seasons for the White Sox.  Floyd generally posted ERAs in the low 4.00s during that time.  I imagine he's likely to sign a one-year deal this offseason.  While we've seen that setbacks are possible with these types of elbow procedures, there seems to be optimism currently that Floyd can contribute with a Major League club for the majority of the 2014 season.

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