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Arbitration Eligibles: Minnesota Twins

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Twins are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Plouffe received 57 more plate appearances in 2013 than 2012, but hit 10 fewer home runs.  He may be better served as a platoon option at third base moving forward, but he's still worth retaining at this price.  

Duensing had his first season of full-time relief pitching and was serviceable with a 3.98 ERA in 61 innings.  He was dominant against lefties, and could have more success in a LOOGY role.  Swarzak led all of MLB with 96 relief innings, posting a strong 2.91 ERA.  Both pitchers should be part of the Twins' bullpen in 2014.

Assuming the Twins tender contracts to Plouffe, Duensing, and Swarzak, they're looking at an estimated $4.8MM for three arbitration eligible players.

Arbitration Eligibles: Cincinnati Reds

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Reds are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Bailey posted the best season of his career in 2013, and stayed healthy for the second consecutive year.  28 in May, he's due a large raise for his contract year.  Discounts can be rare with a player so close to free agency, and even Jered Weaver's five-year, $85MM deal might not be enough to lock up Bailey at this point.  If the Reds don't see Bailey as a potential $100MM pitcher for them, they'll have to decide whether to trade him now, trade him during the season, or just let him walk as a free agent.  Brandon Phillips might be the Reds' preferred salary to clear this winter, but Bailey is another option and would bring a much larger return.  Replacing his production in the rotation is the hard part.

Leake is also looking at a large salary bump after posting a career-best 3.37 ERA in 192 1/3 innings.  He lacks the upside of Bailey, but with two years of control some teams might prefer him.  An extension is another option, though there are few recent comparables from Leake's service class.  A five-year contract worth $40MM+ could be fair, though Leake's low strikeout rate should give the Reds pause.

Despite being signed through 2014, Chapman gets to go through the arbitration process and take his $3MM salary as a bonus.  Assuming the bonus is not factored into the closer's projection, we have him at $4.6MM.  The Reds will find that closers can get expensive in a hurry through arbitration, especially with strong ones in Chapman's service class like Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, and Greg Holland potentially pushing him up.  I think it's best to go year-to-year with Chapman, as the potential reward of buying out his free agent years starting in 2017 outweighs the risk of guaranteeing him a walk-prone reliever significant money when you don't have to.

Hanigan, a rare OBP-oriented catcher, has finished a three-year deal and enters his contract year.  An oblique strain, a sore thumb, an ankle injury, and a wrist strain hampered him in 2013, helping keep his salary down in the range of a backup.  It makes sense to retain him.  

Heisey continued to show pop against left-handed pitching, though his overall .237 average was a career worst.  He's due a mild raise, and even if the Reds were to look in another direction, a team would might take him on in trade.  Paul's success against right-handed pitching continued, and the 28-year-old has developed into a useful extra outfielder.

Simon finished third in MLB with 87 2/3 relief innings, and is locked in for next year after posting a 2.87 ERA.  LeCure was even better, with a 2.66 ERA and strong strikeout rate in 61 frames.

As a 37-year-old third catcher, Miller will likely lose his 40-man roster spot soon.

Assuming the Reds retain Bailey, Leake, Chapman, Hanigan, Heisey, Simon, Paul, and LeCure, the Reds are looking at a projected $27.4MM for eight arbitration eligible players.

Arbitration Eligibles: Washington Nationals

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Nationals are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Zimmermann posted the best season of his career in 2013, with 213 1/3 innings of 3.25 ball.  He also tied for the NL lead with 19 wins, a number that looks great in arbitration especially with a previous career high of 12.  He had Tommy John surgery in August of 2009, and beginning in 2011 posted full season ERAs of 3.18, 2.94, and 3.25.  Zimmermann picked up his first All-Star nod this year as well.  It's difficult to find a hole in his arbitration case, and a hefty raise is in order for his third time through.  Four years ago, Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez signed five-year deals in the $80MM range.  Having been a Super Two player, Zimmermann would probably require at least $85MM over five years.  The price has gone up since last year, with negotiations expected with the Nationals this winter.  The righty told MLB.com's Bill Ladson in August, "I like it here. Obviously, it's the only place that I know. It would be nice to stay long term, but it has to be something fair. I'm just not going to do a team-friendly deal just to stay here long term. If it's a fair deal, then obviously, we'll definitely think about it. But I'm not going to give a huge team discount. Just something fair is all I ask."

Desmond is another extension candidate, after proving 2012 was no fluke by putting up another 20 home run season and duplicating that year's 5.0 wins above replacement.  Like Zimmermann, Desmond hasn't jumped at a team-friendly offer yet, and his price tag continues to rise.  Elvis Andrus doesn't have much on Desmond aside from age, and he inked an eight-year, $120MM extension with the same amount of service time as Desmond.  That contract covered all free agent years, since the Rangers had already locked up Andrus' arbitration seasons, and also includes opt-outs after the fourth and fifth years.  Andrus doesn't have Desmond's power, so it's hard to consider them a match.  On the other hand, Desmond isn't in Troy Tulowitzki territory.  I think one way or another, the Nationals will have to go past $100MM to lock up their shortstop long-term, especially if Desmond insists on receiving eight guaranteed years like Andrus did.

Having compiled 110 holds and 33 saves in his career, Clippard continues to climb up the arbitration ladder.  His projected $6.2MM salary is in the range a quality free agent setup man might receive.  While he's under control for 2015 as well, his salary at that point will be no bargain.  Clippard has given the Nationals five solid seasons, and I wonder if this calls for the old mantra of trading a player a year early rather than a year late.  Clippard might still bring solid value on the trade market, especially if an older reliever like Grant Balfour gets something like $18MM over two years.

Another reason Clippard could be on the move is the comments he made in July regarding the Nationals' handling of his friend and fellow reliever Storen.  "I just think it’s been handled very poorly," Clippard told reporters of Storen's demotion to Triple-A.  Storen himself could be dealt instead after posting a 4.52 ERA in 2013.  He did, however, manage a 1.40 ERA in 19 1/3 innings after his recall in mid-August.

Continuing the Nationals' list of big-name arbitration cases, Strasburg is up for the first time following 183 innings of 3.00 ball, in a season that included forearm tightness and a DL stint for a lat strain.  A mere eight wins on the season serves to limit his salary, and the budding ace will remain affordable in the near-term.  Technically, we would have projected him at $3.4MM had he not earned $3.9MM in 2012, so we expect little to no raise.  The Nats control Strasburg through 2016, at which point the Boras client might pursue a big free agent payday at age 28.

A strained oblique and a back strain limited Detwiler to 13 starts, with his last one coming on July 3rd.  His arbitration salary is justified, though the Nats could slot Tanner Roark and a free agent into the fourth and fifth slots in the 2014 rotation and move Detwiler.

Ramos is in good standing as the team's starting catcher, though a recurring hamstring injury limited him to 78 games on the season.  He still hit a career-best 16 home runs.  If the Nats can handle the injury risk, they could try to steal Ramos' arbitration years at $10MM or less, as happened with Nick Hundley, Carlos Ruiz, and Chris Iannetta.

Ohlendorf joined the organization on a minor league deal in January, having his contract purchased in June and staying on as a swingman thereafter but spending time on the DL in August for a shoulder injury.  He was pretty good overall in 60 1/3 innings, probably enough so to be tendered a contract.

Assuming Zimmermann, Desmond, Clippard, Storen, Strasburg, Detwiler, Ramos, and Ohlendorf are tendered contracts, the Nationals are looking at an estimated $37.3MM for eight arbitration eligible players.

Free Agent Profile: Joe Nathan

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Only a legendary reliever could post a 1.39 ERA that isn't even his career-best.  Joe Nathan did just that for the Rangers in 2013, proving he's still elite at age 38.  After finishing 62 games in 2012 and 61 in '13, Nathan earned the right to void a $9MM club option and become a free agent, which he's expected to do.

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Strengths/Pros

With Mariano Rivera's retirement, Nathan ranks first on the active career saves leaderboard with 341.  That number ties him for tenth all-time with Rollie Fingers, and Nathan can reasonably ascend to sixth all-time by the end of a two-year contract.  He became a full-time reliever in 2003, posting a 2.24 ERA and 3.94 K/BB ratio in 671 1/3 innings since then.  Nathan, who spent the bulk of his career with the Twins, has racked up six All-Star nods.  He's saved at least 37 games in eight different seasons.  His career save percentage is 90.0, the best in baseball history for anyone with at least 200 saves.  Nathan has been one of the best relievers of the entire save era.

Nathan had Tommy John surgery in March 2010, and his final year with the Twins in '11 was a consolidation year as he returned from the procedure.  From 2012-13 for the Rangers, he posted a 2.09 ERA, 10.5 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.3 H/9, and 0.63 HR/9 in 129 regular season innings.  He made the All-Star team both years, saving 80 games in total.  Among relievers with 100 innings during that time, his ERA ranks seventh.  Only four pitchers saved more games.

Outside of the elbow surgery, Nathan has rarely been injured, consistently pitching at least 64 innings per year.

Qualifying offers for relievers figure to remain rare, though Nathan has a chance at one.  Most likely, the Rangers won't risk a potential $14.1MM commitment and won't make the offer.

Weaknesses/Cons

Nathan will pitch at age 39 next year.  Outside of Rivera, who is in a class by himself, there have been only seven instances since 1980 of pitcher age 39 or older saving 30 games in a season.  Dennis Eckersley did it twice, and Trevor Hoffman did it three times.  I explained above that Nathan is a legendary closer in his own right, so he belongs with those names, but it will still be a risky multiyear commitment at significant dollars.  Agent Dave Pepe can counter the age concerns by pointing out that his client is a workout fanatic.

Nathan walked 3.1 batters per nine innings this year, his worst rate since '03.  He walked over four per nine in the second half, even with a strong September finish.  It might be nothing more than a blip, but the increased walk rate is worth considering.

Nathan's groundball rate this year was just 32%.  It may seem like nitpicking, as Nathan surrendered only two home runs in his 64 2/3 innings.  However, most relievers with a groundball rate similar to Nathan's allowed around one home run per nine innings, as Nathan did in 2012.  Home run prevention is one area in which we should not expect Nathan to be elite moving forward.

Personal

Nathan, his wife, and two children reside in Knoxville, Tennessee.  He graduated from SUNY-Stony Brook in '97 with a degree in business management.  Known for his intelligence, Nathan will receive an honorary doctorate from the university in December.  His hobbies include golf and playing the guitar.

Market

Though he committed two years to a 37-year-old Nathan coming off his worst season, Rangers GM Jon Daniels told reporters this month that giving multiple years to relievers has never been the team's preference, and the situation was different that offseason.  While a return to the Rangers can't be ruled out, it seems the Rangers might choose to allocate their resources toward other players and save some money in the ninth inning.  

Nathan projects as a closer on a large-market, win-now team.  The Yankees, Tigers, and perhaps the Angels might be the only teams that fit that criteria and aren't locked in at closer.  The Dodgers or Red Sox could work, but both clubs would have to demote relievers coming off dominant seasons.  The Orioles or Indians could enter the mix, non-tendering or trading Jim Johnson or Chris Perez given arbitration projections in the $11MM and $9MM ranges for their closers, respectively.  Pepe could face a situation similar to that of Rafael Soriano, whose market was limited by his price tag.  Eventually, Scott Boras leveraged his ownership connections to land two separate big-money mid-January contracts for Soriano, even though the closer came with a draft pick cost attached.

Teams seeking closers will have other options beyond Nathan, including free agents Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, and Fernando Rodney.

Expected Contract

Nathan will be voiding his option in search of a multiyear deal, but three years is difficult to picture given his age.  Rivera's two-year, $30MM deal signed after the 2010 season is Nathan's ceiling.  Soriano's two-year, $28MM pact could be another point of reference, though that contract has heavy deferrals and a vesting option, and covers the pitcher's age 33-34 seasons.  Ultimately I think Nathan will sign a two-year, $26MM deal with a club option for 2016.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Arbitration Eligibles: San Francisco Giants

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Giants are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Belt, 26 in April, established career bests in most categories and finished strong.  He'll go to arbitration four times as a Super Two player, but his first-time salary is held down by modest power numbers.  It's possible the Giants could consider an Allen Craig type of contract, perhaps with an adjustment to reflect Belt's Super Two status.  Blanco had another useful season, contributing mainly with his glove.  It's possible he'll be pushed to a fourth outfielder role next year, but he still provides good value.  Arias seems safe as the primary backup infielder.

As a journeyman who cleared waivers as recently as August, I'd normally peg Petit as a non-tender candidate.  However, he did a nice job for the Giants in 48 innings, narrowly missing a perfect game in September.  He's probably earned himself a roster spot for next year, especially with the Giants facing question marks in the rotation after Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner.

The Giants may lose lefty Javier Lopez to free agency, but still may see fit to non-tender Mijares.  The 28-year-old southpaw posted a strong 9.9 K/9, but was beat up by allowing 67 hits in 49 innings.  He might rebound next year if he's used more strictly, as he was particularly bad against right-handed hitters.  Abreu showed good pop in 147 plate appearances, enduring a couple of stints on the DL.  Since his projected salary is barely above the league minimum, he has a chance to stick around.

If Belt, Blanco, Petit, Arias, and Abreu are tendered contracts, the Giants are looking at an estimated $7.8MM for five arbitration eligible players.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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The White Sox have missed the playoffs for five consecutive years, but will continue to avoid a full-blown rebuilding effort.  This offseason will be focused on adding position players who can help in 2014 and beyond.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses)

Contract Options

Free Agents

With the summer trades of Jake Peavy, Alex Rios, Jesse Crain, and Matt Thornton, three of whom are controllable beyond this year, did the White Sox finally signal a willingness to take a step backward in 2014 for the greater good?  The club hasn't made the playoffs since 2008, and GM Rick Hahn stocked up on young talent partially at the expense of veterans who may have provided more value in 2014.

Behind the plate, Flowers flopped this year and could be traded or non-tendered.  Josh Phegley, 26 in February, hit .316/.368/.597 at Triple-A, though it wasn't his first time at the level.  Phegley received over 200 plate appearances in the Majors and the catcher's offensive success did not carry over.  Hahn's comments last month about the catching situation, quoted here by Chuck Garfien of CSNChicago.com, suggest they'll consider making an acquisition.  At his season-ending press conference, Hahn expressed the desire to avoid short-term fixes in free agency, instead focusing on players who can contribute several years beyond 2014.  One possible fit is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a rare free agent who will play next year at age 29.  In theory, Saltalmacchia's greatest weakness, left-handed pitching, could be lessened by a right-handed hitting backup like Phegley.  In my free agent profile on Salty I predicted a four-year, $36MM deal, so the Sox could bring him in without committing a huge average annual value.  One impediment for the Sox would be potentially losing their second-round draft pick to sign him.

White Sox legend Paul Konerko seems likely to decide this month whether to retire or play in 2014.  The cleanest solution may be retirement, because no one wants to see him finish his career elsewhere, but the Sox might only be willing to provide a low-salary, part-time role.  Konerko told Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com he'd only consider such a role with the White Sox, but there's still potential for awkwardness.  For now, the Sox must keep an open mind for first base.  Cuban slugger Jose Dariel Abreu checks all the boxes for the White Sox: long-term value, a contract that won't be monstrous by typical free agent standards, and no loss of a draft pick to sign him.  The White Sox have a history of signing Cuban players, and sent former GM/current VP Kenny Williams to Abreu's showcase in September.  In August, prior to the showcase, Williams said of Abreu to reporters, "If it’s big money, it’s big money.  Can we fit it into our equation? We’ve gone out and spent money before at given times. It has to fit into the current equation and our three-year look. But I need to see more video."

The White Sox have incumbent veterans in the middle infield with Beckham and Ramirez.  It's possible one could be traded to make way for Leury Garcia or Marcus Semien.  Ramirez continues to provide good value, but at age 32 has seen a dropoff in power.  With a potential three years of control, Ramirez's durability may appeal to teams scared off by Stephen Drew's injury history.

While the hot corner is a potential area for upgrade, Conor Gillaspie could be functional against right-handed pitching.  The Sox are stuck with Keppinger and might as well see if he can regain usefulness against southpaws to form the rest of the platoon.  Semien, Garcia, and Brent Morel could also contribute at third base if the team's middle infield remains locked in.  Still, I expect Hahn to be involved on any young third basemen that become available.

Avisail Garcia, the main piece acquired in the Peavy deal, is set as Rios' replacement in right field.  De Aza has been acceptable in center, and Viciedo finished strong and remains affordable.  De Aza could be pushed into the role of a good fourth outfielder, which would probably be necessary if the Sox intend to make a "hard push" for Chicago native Curtis Granderson, as reported by Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times in early October.  MLBTR's Steve Adams predicted a three-year, $45MM deal for Granderson, with the cost of a draft pick as well.  Paying good money and losing a draft pick for Granderson's age 33-35 seasons doesn't seem to fit with Hahn's plan.  A better match could be 30-year-old center fielder Chris Young, who was drafted by the White Sox in '01 and traded to the Diamondbacks in '05 for Javier Vazquez.  After an off year, Young is expected to have his $11MM club option declined by Oakland.  Though a one-year deal for Young wouldn't provide long-term value, risk would be limited and if he performs well he could become a trade chip.

After hitting .211/.326/.455 with 75 home runs over the last two seasons, is Dunn a trade candidate?  Thirty-four years old in November, Dunn is a tough fit for a lot of teams as a primary DH who whiffs a ton, struggles against left-handed pitching, and no longer posts a strong OBP due to the low batting average.  Still, in a market where Kendrys Morales is going to turn down a one-year, $14.1MM offer, Dunn could be moved if the White Sox pick up two-thirds of his salary.

Hahn said he will remain open-minded about trading young pitching, but will be careful about compromising the team's strength.  Sale and Danks seem locked in at the front and back of the rotation, respectively, while 24-year-old southpaw Jose Quintana put together a breakout year with a 3.51 ERA in 200 innings.  The remaining two spots should be filled by some combination of Hector Santiago, Erik Johnson, Andre Rienzo, and Dylan Axelrod.  While Chicago's 2014 rotation seems like a sleeper to be above average even without Peavy, I don't think they have the depth to trade Quintana unless they receive an offer they can't refuse.  One approach could be to stockpile depth though free agency, making trading a young pitcher slightly easier to stomach.

With Crain and Thornton out of the picture, Hahn might be compelled to do some bullpen tinkering.  Lindstrom wasn't bad to have around at $2.3MM, but the Sox have a tougher call with a $500K buyout or his $4MM option for '14.  Declining Lindstrom's option would leave Addison Reed and Nate Jones at the back end of the bullpen, with plenty of competition and question marks beyond the young pair.  Hahn may look at add multiple affordable veterans, one of them left-handed.   

"It's not in our nature to write off any season. I don't think that's appropriate in baseball today," Hahn told MLB.com's Scott Merkin in August.  You have to respect the White Sox for not fully punting on seasons in the name of stockpiling young players, as the Cubs and Mets have recently.  With the third overall draft pick next June, the White Sox will have their earliest pick since they took Harold Baines first overall in 1977, but at least they entered the 2013 season with the playoffs in mind.  Hahn intends to improve the team aggressively and quickly, which may be best accomplished by adding players in their 20s like Abreu and taking advantage of cheap seasons by Sale and Quintana.

Free Agent Profile: Jose Dariel Abreu

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Is Jose Dariel Abreu MLB's next Cuban sensation?  Abreu, who turns 27 in January, defected from Cuba in August and is now free to sign with any team.  He has a good chance to sign the largest contract ever for a Cuban player, topping Yasiel Puig's seven-year, $42MM deal.  Every team had some kind of scouting presence at Abreu's early October showcase, reported Baseball America's Ben Badler.  

Strengths/Pros

Abreu put up huge numbers in Cuba's Serie Nacional as well as in international tournaments.  His calling card is power, prompting Athletics assistant GM David Forst to say to Grantland's Jonah Keri in February 2012, "There are legitimate comparisons to Ryan Howard."  Badler elaborated in August this year, "Abreu is a physically imposing righthanded hitter with tremendous raw power to all fields."  In an ESPN article, former GM Jim Bowden gave Abreu a 70 hit tool and 70 for power on the scouting scale, after talking to "a few execs and scouts who have seen him play."  One scout told ESPN's Jerry Crasnick Abreu has "monstrous power."  Many different reports suggest Abreu could hit 30 home runs for an MLB team right away, a level no free agent reached in 2013.  Given the scouting grade on his power, it seems possible Abreu could reach 40 in a season at some point during his contract.

Since Abreu will play in 2014 at age 27, he's younger than every significant free agent hitter.  A six-year deal could still catch a large portion of his prime, which is unlikely to be the case with any other free agent.  

If they reach the open market, many of the top free agent power bats have a good chance of requiring the sacrifice of a draft pick to sign: Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz, Carlos Beltran, Mike Napoli, Kendrys Morales, Shin-Soo Choo, and Brian McCann.  Abreu will not require the loss of a draft pick.

Weaknesses/Cons

If Abreu has a few vintage Ryan Howard or David Ortiz-caliber seasons during his contract, he should easily be worth $50-60MM, and could provide an excellent return on investment.  MLB executives are drooling at the thought.  There have been some less-than-glowing reports about Abreu's overall hitting ability, however.

Abreu's bat speed was questioned in a pair of excellent reports from Badler and Crasnick, and there are multiple scouts who feel he will struggle against hard fastballs inside.  Crasnick talked to a scout who described Abreu as a less-athletic Dayan Viciedo, a player with a .264/.306/.432 line in over 1,200 big league plate appearances.  In sum, Viciedo has been about replacement level for his career.  The scout felt that Abreu has more power than Kendrys Morales, but is a worse hitter.  There are few questions about Abreu's power, but will he be able to hit for average or draw a walk?  Badler has noted that scouts and teams have extensive history watching Abreu, but based on reports, it's unclear whether they project him over or under Morales' .333 career OBP.

Reports vary on Abreu's ability to contribute beyond his bat.  One scout told Crasnick Abreu is "all bat," an Edgar Martinez type, while another felt he could be a solid first baseman.  The bar is raised for a bat-only player, and it's certainly possible to hit 25-30 home runs and still be replacement level, as Raul Ibanez did this year.  As far as young DHs go, Billy Butler has a .298/.364/.459 line in seven seasons, yet has never had a season in which he was worth three wins above replacement.  Still, if Abreu settles in as a two-win player, he'll be worth a $10MM salary.  

At 6'2" and 250 pounds, Abreu is not nearly the athlete Yasiel Puig or Yoenis Cespedes is, though Crasnick says Abreu has ramped up his conditioning of late.  He's still likely to be a negative in baserunning.  

Personal

Abreu is married and has a son, and I've heard he is a relatively quiet player who takes a professional approach to his job.  Abreu is more grounded than Puig and is considered a "good kid" in scouting circles, according to Crasnick.  Abreu's good friend Henry Urrutia, an outfielder for the Orioles, told MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez, "He's a humble man and he comes from a rural area of hard-working people."  Abreu has a "fun-loving personality," heard MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.

Market

The top end of the free agent market for first basemen includes Mike Napoli and Kendrys Morales, both of whom seem likely to come with a draft pick cost attached.  Badler talked to scouts who preferred Napoli to Abreu, but it's far from a slam dunk.  Though Abreu has been scouted extensively, I still believe some teams will be seduced by the allure of the unknown, as it's easier to dream about Abreu hitting 40 home runs than Napoli or Morales, partially because Abreu has never played in the Majors.

Unlike typical free agents, Abreu is free to sign now and already held a showcase, so rumors are plentiful.  The Marlins, Red Sox, White Sox, Rangers, Giants, Pirates, Orioles, and Mets have been linked to Abreu to varying degrees, and Badler says the first five teams had the strongest presence at his showcase in the Dominican Republic.  Abreu's market is not limited to win-now teams, given his age.  The Marlins, in particular, are "all-in" on Abreu, wrote MLB.com's Joe Frisaro in early October.  They sent GM Dan Jennings to his showcase, and already have two of Abreu's countrymen on the roster in Jose Fernandez and Adeiny Hechavarria.

Expected Contract

Predicting Abreu's contract is particularly difficult without knowing the player's goals.  Cespedes made a point of limiting his term to four years, to allow a quick path back to free agency.  Puig maximized his total dollars by taking a seven-year deal, a contract few saw coming in advance.  Napoli has his share of drawbacks, yet I've projected a three-year, $42MM contract.  Given that Abreu is more than five years younger, won't cost a draft pick, and may have more power, an average annual value of $10MM or less may be a bargain.  $60MM over six years appears to be Abreu's ceiling.  Ultimately I find the oft-cited six-year, $54MM prediction to be the best bet.

Arbitration Eligibles: Milwaukee Brewers

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Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Brewers are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

When Estrada hit the DL on June 5th for a hamstring injury, he was sporting a 5.32 ERA.  A back injury cropped up as well, delaying his return until August 7th.  From that point onward, he posted a 2.15 ERA and 5.09 K/BB ratio in nine starts.  Estrada will again be a popular sleeper pick heading into next season.  For now, his salary projects to remain small, and he hasn't shown enough to justify a significant extension.

Acquired in December last year, Badenhop's 2013 peripherals were nearly a carbon copy of his '12 rates.  He remains a useful groundball pitcher, and the Brewers have him for one more year before he's eligible for free agency.

Francisco was a popular trade target after the Braves designated him for assignment in late May.  The Brewers dealt for him in early June and he hit .221/.300/.433 for them in 270 plate appearances, trailing off in the season's final month.  He was used in a strict platoon, rarely facing a left-handed pitcher while mostly playing first base.  Even just for some pop off the bench, Francisco seems worth retaining at $1.4MM.

Assuming the Brewers tender contracts to Estrada, Badenhop, and Francisco, they're looking at a projected $7MM for three arbitration eligible players.

Free Agent Profile: Josh Johnson

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Before the season began, Blue Jays righty Josh Johnson ranked third on my Free Agent Power Rankings, which serves as an example of how tantalizing his abilities can be.  He lasted four starts before hitting the DL with triceps tightness.  He returned over a month later and made another dozen starts before a forearm injury ended his season.  On October 1st, Johnson had arthroscopic surgery to remove loose bodies and a bone spur in his elbow, and he's expected to be ready for Spring Training.  Let's take a look at his free agent prospects after the lost season.

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Pros/Strengths

Johnson is one of the hardest-throwing free agent starters, as his average fastball velocity of 92.8 miles per hour this year was bested only by Garza.  He finished fourth in strikeouts per nine innings at 9.18.  Even in a year in which almost nothing went right, Johnson still threw hard and whiffed more than a batter per inning.

Prior to 2013, Johnson had a reputation of a pitcher who would spend some time on the DL, but would be excellent when he was on the mound.  He posted a 3.14 ERA over 904 1/3 innings from 2006-12.  During that time period, his ERA ranked sixth in all of baseball among those with at least 800 innings.  Johnson pitched like an ace for the Marlins from 2009-10, with a 2.80 ERA over 392 2/3 innings.  Only four pitchers were better.  He made the All-Star team in both seasons, and finished fifth in the 2010 NL Cy Young voting after posting a 2.30 ERA.

Given his rough 2013 campaign, Johnson is highly unlikely to receive a qualifying offer, so he won't come with a draft pick cost attached.

Johnson's recent elbow surgery could be construed as a positive, as Dr. James Andrews told the pitcher he thought the bone spurs were the cause of his struggles this year, agent Matt Sosnick told MLBTR.

Weaknesses/Cons

Johnson is a starting pitcher who tossed fewer than 1,000 innings over an eight-year span, as he's been injured a ton.  In 2006, his first full season, he was done on September 12th due to a forearm strain.  He began the '07 season on the DL with ulnar nerve irritation in his right biceps.  After beginning his season in June of that year, he made four starts before going under the knife for Tommy John surgery in August.  His recovery was short, as he was back on a Major League mound in less than a year.

Johnson was injury-free in '09, and signed a four-year extension after that season.  Though he technically avoided the DL in his fantastic 2010 campaign, his last start came on September 4th due to shoulder inflammation and a back strain.  He hit the DL with shoulder inflammation in May 2011, and wasn't able to return from the injury that year, finishing with only nine starts.  The mostly-healthy 2009-10 seasons showed Johnson bounced back well from Tommy John surgery, but '11 reintroduced the idea that he was injury-prone.  He bounced back in 2012, avoiding the DL and making 31 starts.  Johnson didn't pitch at his previous ace level, but he re-established enough hope to be a major part of the November blockbuster with Toronto.

As mentioned in the introduction of this post, Johnson endured separate injuries in 2013 involving his triceps and elbow, culminating in surgery.  He made a lot of bad pitches, allowing 11.6 hits and 1.66 home runs per nine innings, leading to a career-worst 6.20 ERA in 81 1/3 innings.   Even if we give him a pass for Tommy John surgery early in his career, Johnson has had three healthy seasons in the last five.  He hasn't had an ace-caliber healthy season since 2010, calling into question whether he can return to that level for 180 innings.  After 2013, his ability and durability must be questioned.  With only one 200-inning season in his career, Johnson is the polar opposite of a dependable, low-upside arm like Bronson Arroyo.

Personal

Josh is married with two children, and they reside in Las Vegas during the offseason.  He's a big golfer who plays to a 1 handicap.

Market

Sosnick told MLBTR Johnson loved playing for Blue Jays manager John Gibbons, and bought into the vision of GM Alex Anthopoulos.  The pitcher has interest in returning to the Jays.  If a reunion doesn't happen, pretty much any team could explore a deal, since the risk will be limited to one year.  The Cubs, Rays, Mets, Rangers, Pirates, Nationals, Twins, Indians, and Athletics are some teams that have shown a willingness in recent years to sign free agent starting pitcher projects.

Expected Contract

A one-year deal free of options is in the cards for Johnson, as he aims to rebuild value with a healthy 2014.  The gold standard contract for a pitcher coming off an injury is the one-year, $10MM deal Ben Sheets signed with the Athletics after missing all of 2009.  Though that contract is almost four years old, I see it as the ceiling for Johnson.  Ultimately, I predict a one-year, $8MM deal, with significant incentives in the $4-6MM range.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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