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Braves Expected To Show Interest In Gregg

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The Braves are "among the many teams expected to show interest in Cubs closer Kevin Gregg," writes MLB.com's Mark Bowman.  Bowman notes that the righty closed for current Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez when both were with the Marlins in 2007-08.  Gregg is just one of many relievers the Braves may be looking at as they pursue veteran help with Eric O'Flaherty and Jonny Venters out for the season.

Gregg, 35, has become an unlikely asset for the Cubs, returning to their closer role and posting a 1.42 ERA, 9.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 0.71 HR/9, and 36.5% groundball rate in 25 1/3 innings.  He's proof of the volatility of relievers.  In March, ESPN Los Angeles' Mark Saxon wrote that Gregg "quietly stewed" over the fact that he couldn't find a Major League deal in the offseason coming off a 2012 campaign in which he posted a 4.95 ERA and 1.5 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 frames for the Orioles.  He signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers, who couldn't find a spot on their big league pitching staff due to their starter surplus and released him.  He then signed a minor league deal with the Cubs, who selected his contract in a mid-April bullpen shakeup.

It's a little early for a clear picture of Gregg's market, but the Braves, Reds, Red Sox, Tigers, and Padres are likely to be on the hunt for bullpen help.  The Cubs and Braves hooked up on a notable trade near the deadline last year, with Chicago shipping veterans Paul Maholm and Reed Johnson to Atlanta for prospects Arodys Vizcaino and Jaye Chapman.

Marlins Unlikely To Trade Giancarlo Stanton

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Dreaming of slugger Giancarlo Stanton manning right field for your contending team this summer?  Forget about it.  Multiple reports this week suggest Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria will not trade Stanton before the July 31st deadline.  According to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, Loria is "adamant about wanting to build around Stanton."  And two days ago, ESPN's Jayson Stark wrote that officials of three different teams told him Loria "has decided this isn't the time to deal him."

Stanton, who is under the Marlins' control through 2016, "remains extremely unlikely to sign with the club long term," according to Rosenthal.  Regardless, Rosenthal hears Loria is "hell-bent on winning in the near future - and proving that he made the right baseball decisions when he tore apart his roster."  The Marlins traded Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Edward Mujica, Hanley Ramirez, Josh Johnson, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Emilio Bonifacio, and John Buck in the last year, but as Rosenthal notes, many of their young players are coming on strong.  How interesting would it be if this team made significant acquisitions during the offseason?  Top free agents would be extremely wary, but money talks and trades remain possible.

The Marlins do have trade candidates this summer aside from Stanton, including Ricky Nolasco, Placido Polanco, Greg Dobbs, Juan Pierre, Jeff Mathis, Chad Qualls, Ryan Webb, Kevin Slowey, Steve Cishek, and Mike Dunn.

Trade Market For First Basemen

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Last July one of the most notable first baseman trades came early in the month, as the Marlins acquired Carlos Lee from the Astros for Matt Dominguez and Rob Rasmussen.  The Marlins later dealt the man Lee replaced, Gaby Sanchez.  The Lee trade might have marked the last time the Marlins will act as buyers for a while; they moved Anibal Sanchez, Omar Infante, Hanley Ramirez, and Edward Mujica for younger players weeks later, sparking a new direction.  This year, teams such as the Yankees, Royals, Rockies, and Giants could be looking for help at first base.

Starters

Mike Morse (Mariners), Kendrys Morales (Mariners), Justin Smoak (Mariners), Adam Dunn (White Sox),  Paul Konerko (White Sox), Justin Morneau (Twins), Carlos Pena (Astros), Chris Carter (Astros), Logan Morrison (Marlins), Ike Davis (Mets), Lucas Duda (Mets)

A closer look at the teams and situations listed here:

  • Mariners: Morse and Morales are probably the most eminently available bats who are capable of playing first base, though neither has spent much time there in 2013 and Morse is currently on the DL with a quad strain.  Both players are free agents after the season and are unlikely to receive qualifying offers.  They've got some pop and don't come with ridiculous contracts.  Smoak, 26, was the primary piece acquired by Seattle upon sending Cliff Lee to Texas three years ago.  This year, he's missed time with an oblique strain and has continued to fail to show the power typical of a first baseman.  With arbitration eligibility ahead (not that he'll receive a large salary), the Mariners could choose to use Smoak in a deal.
  • White Sox: I don't expect Dunn or Konerko to be traded, but they should at least be available.  Dunn's walks can't save a .200 batting average, his defense at first is not beloved, and he's owed around $20MM through 2014.  Konerko has started to hit somewhat in June, but he is a Chicago icon with no-trade protection.  He'd have to want to go to a contender, and with around $4.5MM left on his contract the money would have to be worked out with the acquiring team.
  • Twins: Morneau has spent his entire career in Minnesota, winning the MVP in '06.  Like Konerko, he has no-trade protection, over $4.5MM remaining on his contract, and a slugging percentage below .400.  Trying to move guys like Konerko and Morneau might be more trouble than it's worth unless the players are completely on board and the teams can find significant savings.
  • Astros: Pena is a veteran on a cheap one-year deal, but he's not hitting enough to bring back anything notable.  The Astros might rather just have him in their clubhouse.  Carter, 26, is tied for 12th in the AL with 15 home runs.  He also leads all of baseball with 108 strikeouts.  He appears to be the 30 home run, low batting average slugger we thought he was, which is OK but shouldn't prevent the Astros from listening.
  • Marlins: Morrison's season debut was June 9th, as he was recovering from September knee surgery.  There's no particular reason to expect LoMo to be dealt, but he'll be arbitration eligible next year, and it's the Marlins.
  • Mets: Considered a probable long-term piece for the Mets as the season began, Davis was brutal over 207 plate appearances to begin the season and was optioned to Triple-A.  A recall seems imminent, but as with the Mariners and Smoak, the Mets could just send him packing in a change of scenery deal.  Davis will probably be tendered a contract this winter, but not necessarily by the Mets.  Duda has drawn some walks and hit some home runs, but similar to Carter, there's no reason the Mets shouldn't listen on the 27-year-old.

Backups

The Marlins' Greg Dobbs should be available, and the Astros' Pena would fit in a backup role.

Other Possibilities

The Brewers' Corey Hart looks like an August trade candidate, if anything, as he's dealt with delays in his recovery from January knee surgery.  The Phillies' Ryan Howard would be nice to add in the larger part of a platoon, facing righties, but he's owed about $65MM through 2016 with good no-trade protection.  The logistics of a deal would be complicated, and the Phillies might not have the desire anyway.  The Nationals' Adam LaRoche gets a mention because of a scenario from ESPN's Jayson Stark, but it doesn't feel too likely to me.  The Giants' Brandon Belt has been OK, and as you've seen in this post, there are few available players who would serve as a clear upgrade.

Check out our Trade Market For Catchers post as well.

Marlins Working To Trade Nolasco ASAP

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WEDNESDAY, 10:59pm: The Marlins are surprisingly open to eating some of Nolasco's contract, but only if the prospect return is significantly better than alternative deals, tweets Jim Bowden of ESPN.com.  Meanwhile, the Padres continue to have talks with the Marlins on multiple players, including Nolasco, but nothing is close or imminent, a source tells Bowden (Twitter link).

5:21pm: The Marlins have told other clubs that they have teams willing to take on all of the prorated portion of Nolasco's $11.5MM salary, tweets Buster Olney of ESPN.com.  Nolasco is owed roughly $6MM between now and the end of the season.

TUESDAY, 12:41pm: The Marlins have been aggressively working to move starting pitcher Ricky Nolasco as soon as possible, tweets ESPN's Buster Olney.  So far the Orioles, Yankees, Diamondbacks, Padres, Rockies, and Giants have been connected to the righty, and the Marlins' aggressive approach was noted by Andy Martino of the New York Daily News yesterday.  And earlier today, ESPN's Jayson Stark wrote that Nolasco might win the "Most Likely to Get Traded Before the All-Star Break pool."  Moving Nolasco with over a month remaining until the July 31st trade deadline makes sense, because there's added value to a contender in having him for all of July.

Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports has a new article on Nolasco, where he names the Giants, Dodgers, Padres, Rockies, and Orioles as interested parties (the NL West teams have expressed interest).  As opposed to Olney's report, Rosenthal writes, "The Marlins are 'kicking around' names in a potential Nolasco trade with clubs, sources say, but their talks have not progressed to the point where a deal is close."

Nolasco, 30, has a 3.68 ERA, 6.9 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 0.81 HR/9, and 41.6% groundball rate in 100 1/3 innings this year, making him one of the better available starting pitchers.  He has about $6MM remaining on his contract, after which he'll be a free agent.  Another of the top starting pitchers available, Matt Garza, is under pursuit by the Padres and Dodgers, according to Rosenthal.  Any player traded midseason becomes ineligible for a qualifying offer in the offseason, removing the possibility of draft pick compensation and increasing the player's value to winter suitors.

Click here to see a leaderboard I've created of all the potentially available starting pitchers.

Trade Market For Catchers

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Last summer, catchers Geovany Soto and George Kottaras were traded in July, while Kurt Suzuki and Kelly Shoppach were dealt in August.  This year's market for backstops appears similarly uninspiring.  The Tigers and Yankees are a couple of teams that could be in the market.

Starters

John Buck (Mets), Ryan Doumit (Twins)

Buck, 32, has hit .176/.263/.243 in 152 plate appearances since May 5th.  Anthony Recker serves as Buck's backup.  Mets fans await the big league debut of Travis D'Arnaud, the key piece in the R.A. Dickey trade over the offseason, as D'Arnaud recovers from a broken bone in his foot.  At last check, D'Arnaud was cleared to run in water.  If D'Arnaud needs more than a month, Buck could still be moved in August given his $6MM salary and lackluster hitting.  The Mets' goal should be modest with a Buck trade; he can back up somewhere and they can receive some salary relief.

Doumit, a switch-hitter, still has decent pop.  He's more of a catcher/designated hitter/occasional first baseman/corner outfielder.  The Twins gave him a two-year, $7MM extension in June of last year, so it's possible they'd prefer to retain him for 2014.

Backups

Dioner Navarro (Cubs), Hank Conger (Angels), Carlos Corporan (Astros), Jeff Mathis (Marlins), John Baker (Dodgers)

Navarro should be particularly available, since he's a free agent after the season.  He has a .468 SLG in very limited duty the last couple of years.  Conger and Corporan have also shown a bit with the bat this year as backups; their availability is uncertain.  Mathis made his season debut in mid-May after a broken collarbone, and has only 57 plate appearances on the season.  He's under contract for $1.5MM in 2014, with a club option for '15.

Other Possibilities

Should the Phillies adopt a more certain seller stance, impending free agent Carlos Ruiz should be available.  His season began in late April after he tested positive for Adderall, and then he later missed time with a hamstring injury.  We've yet to see whether he can be an asset offensively this year.  He's earning $5MM.  The Brewers' Jonathan Lucroy is signed through 2016, possibly '17, and I imagine they'll keep him.  Ditto for the Angels and Chris Iannetta, who is signed through '15.  I can picture the White Sox moving Tyler Flowers, though he wouldn't really help a contender.

Biogenesis Effects

The Yankees' Francisco Cervelli is currently recovering from a broken hand; the team has used Austin Romine to back up Chris Stewart in his absence.  If Cervelli is suspended for his connection to Biogenesis, the Yankees' desire to add a veteran could increase.  There's also Padres starter Yasmani Grandal, who has already served a 50-game suspension for testing positive for testosterone.  If MLB manages to slap a 100-game suspension on him, he could be done for the season.  The Padres would presumably turn back to Nick Hundley, but could at least look for a backup having cut Baker earlier this month.  They did subsequently add Chris Robinson to their Triple-A club, for which Rene Rivera is playing well.

Minor Moves: MacDougal, Tallet, Mather

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Today's minor moves…

Stark On Astros, Ethier, Brewers, Papelbon, Stanton

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The latest column from ESPN's Jayson Stark is jam-packed with trade-related information.  Highlights:

  • One National League executive predicted that the Cubs' Matt Garza will be the first pitcher traded; he's thought to be eminently available, as the Cubs are not comfortable with his asking price on a potential new contract.  The Padres and Dodgers are among the teams pursuing Garza, reported Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports earlier today.
  • The Astros are looking for volume in any deal they make, one NL exec told Stark.  Bud Norris is an obvious trade chip for Jeff Luhnow and company, while I imagine Carlos Pena, Jose Veras, Erik Bedard, Lucas Harrell, Wesley Wright, Ronny Cedeno, and others can be had as well.
  • The Dodgers are not actively dangling right fielder Andre Ethier.  What's more, the team still views itself as a buyer despite being eight games out.  They may be interested in adding a third baseman they can control for multiple years, implies Stark.
  • Nationals first baseman Adam LaRoche could be dealt, hears Stark, in a scenario where Ryan Zimmerman moves to first base, Anthony Rendon moves back to third base, and Danny Espinosa gets healthy.  LaRoche's name is not out there at present, however.
  • The Brewers will "gladly listen" on third baseman Aramis Ramirez, as well as any position player other than Jean Segura, Carlos Gomez, and Ryan Braun.  I wonder if that means names such as Jonathan Lucroy and Norichika Aoki will be in play next month.
  • Execs who spoke to Stark seem divided on whether the Brewers want to trade Yovani Gallardo, with one saying, "To be honest, I think they would love to move him."  Click here for thoughts from Brewers GM Doug Melvin on the situation.
  • The Phillies are talking to the Red Sox and Tigers about closer Jonathan Papelbon right now, one exec tells Stark, even if they say otherwise.
  • Officials of three teams that have talked to the Marlins about slugger Giancarlo Stanton are convinced owner Jeffrey Loria won't trade him this summer.  In an April poll of over 13,000 MLBTR readers, over 40% thought Stanton would be dealt this summer.
  • Other teams say the Tigers are willing to surrender top prospects Nick Castellanos or Avisail Garcia if necessary.  The team is focused on finding a closer.
  • The Braves are "all over the bullpen market," which jives with a couple of other reports today.
  • The Giants "have taken on a whole new fervor in the last week in their hunt for another starter."  They've been connected often to Nolasco, but there are around 20 viable candidates out there of varying quality.  The Orioles could make a move before the All-Star break, hears Stark, and they seem to be prioritizing starters over relievers.

Cubs Designate Carlos Marmol; Release Ian Stewart

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The Cubs finally pulled the plug on longtime reliever Carlos Marmol today, announcing they've designated him for assigment.  The team also announced the suspension of third baseman Ian Stewart was settled and upheld, and he was granted his unconditional release.  The team selected the contract of outfielder Brian Bogusevic to replace Marmol.

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Marmol had become a symbol for the Cubs' struggles this year, with a 5.86 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, and 1.95 HR/9 in 27 2/3 innings.  He began the season as the team's closer, apparently as a way of building trade value, but lost the job after allowing five runs in his first three outings.  Marmol, a converted catcher/outfielder, joined the team's bullpen in 2007, snagged an All-Star nod in '08, and ascended to the Cubs' closing job late in 2009.  He peaked in 2010, striking out nearly 42% of batters faced while racking up 38 saves.  That season earned him a three-year, $20MM extension in February 2011.  Marmol had always had major problems with walks, and now the team will eat the remaining $5MM+ on that ill-advised contract.  During November of last year, it seemed like Marmol was headed to the Angels for Dan Haren before the Cubs pulled the plug and the Halos declined Haren's club option.

Stewart's departure was inevitable after a June 11th Twitter rant criticizing the team for letting him "rot" in Triple-A, where he's authored a .168/.286/.372 line since returning from a quad injury.  The Cubs handed him a ten-game suspension without pay for the comments for violating the loyalty clause in his contract.  The Cubs had non-tendered Stewart in December and re-signed him for $2MM later that month.  Given that he cleared outright waivers in May, teams were not anxious to take on his salary, nor was Stewart willing to abandon the money and elect free agency at that time.  The Cubs ultimately recoup about $110K of Stewart's salary, writes Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Bogusevic, 29, was born in Oak Lawn, Illinois, as was this post's author.  The Cubs signed him to a minor league deal in November, and the former first-round pick posted a .319/.418/.512 line with 10 home runs in 304 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Analyzing The Free Agent Starters

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I've compiled a FanGraphs custom leaderboard of the 42 current starting pitchers who will be eligible for free agency after the season, leaving out a few with club options such as James Shields and Jon Lester.  Crunching a few basic numbers:

  • You won't find a better innings-eating free agent starter this year than Bronson Arroyo.  He leads with 100 2/3 innings after 15 starts, even though others have made 16 starts.  Arroyo still looks strong if we look at the past calendar year, though Hiroki Kuroda comes out on top with 225 1/3 innings.
  • Jason Hammel, Josh Johnson, and Matt Garza are the hardest throwers of the group, all averaging 92.7 miles per hour on their fastballs.  A.J. Burnett isn't far behind at 92.3, and he leads in strikeout rate and percentage.
  • With a 1.1 BB/9, Bartolo Colon gets the nod for best control.  Ervin Santana and Dan Haren have also been stingy with the free pass.
  • If you don't mind small samples, Chien-Ming Wang and Jake Westbrook are the most extreme groundballers.  If you do mind, then it's Tim Hudson.  Meanwhile, Phil Hughes gets the fewest groundballs, though others such as Freddy Garcia and Haren have had more extreme issues with home runs.  Westbrook hasn't allowed any home runs in his 51 innings, while Jorge De La Rosa has allowed only five in 93 innings.
  • Jason Marquis is getting by with an unsustainably low batting average on balls in play (.237), with Garza and Santana also below .250.
  • Among those with ten starts, Santana is the ERA leader at 2.64, followed by Kuroda and Colon.  SIERA likes Santana as well (3.49), but likes Burnett even more (3.23) and gives a nod to Roberto Hernandez (3.51).  Colon leads the past calendar year with a 2.68 ERA, with Kuroda checking in at 3.00 and Paul Maholm at 3.10.  Colon is also rocking a 1.41 ERA over his last 51 innings, and Joe Saunders is coming on strong in his last five outings.

Brewers’ GM Melvin Discusses Gallardo

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Brewers GM Doug Melvin continues to be frank about how the trade deadline may shape up for his underachieving team.  Talking to Anthony Witrado of Sporting News, Melvin said on Monday, "For us to win games moving forward, Yovani [Gallardo] should be a part of that, but some teams get in pennant races and need that one guy to get them over the hump.  It’s not a slam dunk that I’m going to trade Yovani or [Kyle] Lohse, but you never know. There’s a lot we have to consider about our club right now." 

Gallardo is "already a guy teams are charting," an NL Major League scout told Witrado.  The 27-year-old righty may emerge as the best starting pitcher available this summer.  Cliff Lee may not be available (and some teams would be priced out anyway), while Jake Peavy is on the DL with a rib fracture and Matt Garza comes with the uncertainty of a ten-month layoff.  Plus, as Melvin explained, "That Yovani is not a free agent like guys like [Zack] Greinke or Anibal Sanchez last year, he has more value than just two months of a rental, so the package from another team has to be something that will wow me."

Gallardo will have about $2.6MM remaining in 2013 salary at the July trade deadline, and then is owed $11.25MM in 2014 and has a $13MM club option with a $600K buyout for 2015.  He can block trades to ten teams, including the Orioles.  Having strung together 21 scoreless innings over his last three outings, Gallardo chopped his ERA from 5.25 to 4.09 in the course of about two weeks.  Overall he hasn't missed bats this year like he used to, but he still looks like a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher moving forward.  The Orioles, Padres, and Giants are among the contenders known to be seeking starting pitching, but almost any team could make room for Gallardo.

Melvin spoke in praise of relievers John Axford and Francisco Rodriguez, who appear to be trade candidates.  The Brewers make for an interesting seller, as Lohse is another useful starter and they could offer up one of the market's better bats in Aramis Ramirez.

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