Elias Numbers For Type As
21 Type A free agents may potentially be offered arbitration by their clubs on Tuesday. We know that at least a few – Miguel Tejada, Jermaine Dye, and Kevin Gregg – stand little chance of actually getting an offer. Of those Type As who do receive an offer (there were 15 last year), many will turn it down and sign with a new team. In those cases, the player's old team will receive a draft pick from his new team as part of the compensation.
15 clubs will lose their 2010 first-round pick if they sign such a Type A free agent: the Rays, Mariners, Tigers, Braves, Twins, Rangers, Marlins, Giants, Cardinals, Rockies, Phillies, Dodgers, Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees. The other 15 teams would lose their second-round pick.
What happens if one team signs multiple Type As who were offered and turned down arbitration from their old clubs? How is draft pick compensation sorted out?
This scenario occurred last year when the Yankees signed three Type As: Mark Teixeira, C.C. Sabathia, and A.J. Burnett. Which team – the Angels, Brewers, or Blue Jays – received the Yanks' #25 draft pick? It was the Angels for Teixeira. The Brewers received the Yanks' #73 pick from the second round, and the Jays got the Yanks' #104 pick from the third round. (Note that all three teams also received picks in the supplemental first round, but those were not taken from the Yankees). So the Blue Jays got screwed – they hoped for a pick between #17 and #32, only to receive #104 for Burnett.
The Teixeira/Sabathia/Burnett situation was decided by each player's specific Elias ranking number. Teixeira (98.889) nudged out Sabathia (98.110), while Burnett's number was 89.729. So you see that the Brewers just missed getting #25 instead of #73. They were further burned when Ben Sheets did not sign with a team.
With that background in mind, here are the Elias numbers for this year's Type A free agents (excluding Orlando Cabrera and Takashi Saito, who cannot be offered arbitration):
Matt Holliday 95.960
Jose Valverde 89.874
Jason Bay 89.859
Johnny Damon 85.634
Mike Gonzalez 84.268
John Lackey 83.865
Rafael Soriano 83.667
Marco Scutaro 83.069
Orlando Hudson 82.488
Bengie Molina 81.224
Miguel Tejada 81.143
Randy Wolf 77.778
Billy Wagner 76.377
LaTroy Hawkins 76.344
Jermaine Dye 76.338
Rafael Betancourt 75.830
Darren Oliver 75.543
Kevin Gregg 75.114
Placido Polanco 74.286
Chone Figgins 73.684
Octavio Dotel 68.007
Using Scutaro as an example…say the Blue Jays offer arbitration and he turns it down. The same happens with the Braves and Soriano. If the Red Sox sign both players, Soriano's higher ranking means the Braves get Boston's #29 pick in the June 2010 draft and the Jays get Boston's #61 pick (the Braves and Blue Jays also both get picks in the supplemental first round).
Red Sox Express Interest In Scutaro, Escobar, And More
Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald says the Red Sox have kicked the tires on many free agents already, with Marco Scutaro and Kelvim Escobar the newest names. Others include Rafael Soriano, Matt Holliday, Rick Ankiel, Adrian Beltre, John Lackey, Aroldis Chapman, Billy Wagner, Mike Gonzalez, Alex Gonzalez, and, of course, Jason Bay. Silverman cautions that not all names connected to the Red Sox have "enduring news value."
Scutaro certainly makes sense for Boston; he's the best available shortstop, considering both the free agent and trade market. We ranked Scutaro the eighth-best free agent overall, perhaps a reflection of a weaker market this year. It'd be nice to see Scutaro sign with the Red Sox, as we'd get at least one of our 50 predictions right.
Aside from committing a multiyear contract to Scutaro, the Sox might have to surrender their #29 pick in the June 2010 draft to the Blue Jays. Looking at the Elias numbers, it is possible that the Jays get screwed out of a first-rounder again, as they did losing A.J. Burnett last year (of course, the Jays failed to sign James Paxton anyway). If the Red Sox sign Scutaro and any of Soriano, Gonzalez, Holliday, or Lackey, the Braves, Cardinals, or Angels would get Boston's #29 pick instead and the Jays would get their second-rounder (assuming arbitration is offered to those players).
As Silverman notes, Escobar would fit right in with the John Smoltz/Brad Penny signings of last year. Those two bombed, but here's the question – what kind of success rate should the Red Sox expect from these one-year pitcher gambles? It is OK if one out of five works out?
Pierzynski Hopes To Remain With White Sox
MLB.com's Scott Merkin talked to White Sox catcher A.J. Pierzynski, who hopes to remain with the team after his current contract runs out:
"Hopefully, we have a great year as a team and they will be in a situation where they want to bring me back, because I would be all for it. We haven't really talked about it, but everyone knows I would love to stay here and be a part of the White Sox for as long as I play. That's something I'm not going to worry about. If they want to come and do something, we'll be more than happy to talk about it. At the same time, I'm prepared to let it play out and see what happens."
Merkin notes that Pierzynski's future will be tied to the progress of Sox catching prospect Tyler Flowers, who hit .286/.364/.438 in 119 Triple A plate appearances this year after raking in Double A.
Pierzynski, 33 in December, hit .300/.331/.425 in 535 plate appearances this year. He's set to earn $6.75MM in 2010, finishing up a three-year deal.
White Sox Interested In Coco Crisp
The White Sox are showing interest in center fielder Coco Crisp, tweets Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star. Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune confirms it, with quotes from Crisp's agent Steve Comte. At this point, the talks are preliminary. The Sox have been linked to Crisp in many rumors over the years.
It's been suggested Alex Rios will play center field for the 2010 Sox, though he could certainly remain in right field if they sign Crisp. Crisp, 30, hit .228/.336/.378 in 215 plate appearances for the Royals this year; his season ended in June and he eventually had surgery on both shoulders. The Royals chose a $500K buyout over Crisp's $8MM option for 2010.
Braves Sign Juan Abreu
The Braves signed minor league free agent Juan Abreu to a big league contract, tweets Ed Price of AOL FanHouse. The righty reliever, 25 in April, was previously in the Royals organization. This year he tossed 41.6 innings between High A and Double A, posting 53 strikeouts and 36 walks. Given Abreu's huge strikeout rates and fastball, you have to wonder how the Royals let him go.
Heading into the 2009 season, Baseball America ranked Abreu as the Royals' #25 prospect. Their take: "Abreu has shown a great arm, iffy command and rotten luck during his time with the Royals." The luck note refers to Abreu twisting his ankle in August of last year by stepping on a baseball and missing the rest of that season.
Albert Pujols Wins NL MVP
Albert Pujols was the unanimous choice for NL MVP, according to the BBWAA. Hanley Ramirez, Ryan Howard, and Prince Fielder followed him in the voting.
It's always fun to look at the bottom of the results, where players such as Brad Hawpe, Chris Coghlan, and Jeremy Affeldt received votes.
Brewers Re-Sign Chris Capuano
The Brewers re-signed rehabbing lefty Chris Capuano, according to Anthony Witrado of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Capuano had his second career Tommy John surgery in May of 2008. He was non-tendered after that season and re-signed on a minor league deal, but setbacks limited him to nine minor league innings this year.
The Brewers are expected to sign a pair of starters from a free agent pool that includes Carl Pavano, Randy Wolf, Jarrod Washburn, Doug Davis, and Jon Garland. But wouldn't it be something if low-risk fliers like Capuano or Mark Mulder made significant contributions?
Mets Call On Russell Branyan
The Mets have called to inquire on free agent Russell Branyan, tweets Yahoo's Tim Brown. Branyan was the subject of a November 2nd discussion post here at MLBTR, where it was noted that the first baseman was productive only for the season's first three months perhaps due to a back injury. At the time, interest in a Mariners reunion was mutual, with readers finding a $3-5MM base salary to be reasonable.
On-base machine Nick Johnson could be another option for the Mets at first base; his discussion post can be found here. Johnson's agent Rex Gary told ESPN's Jayson Stark today that more than six teams have expressed interest in his client. Stark wonders if the Giants, Mets, Mariners, Orioles, Nationals, and Red Sox are among them.
Eddie Guardado Plans To Pitch In 2010
Lefty reliever Eddie Guardado intends to pitch in 2010, according to his agent Kevin Kohler (MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan reporting). A visit with Dr. Lewis Yocum has Everyday Eddie feeling better about his knee. Kohler acknowledged that another minor league deal probably makes sense for Guardado, who would like to pitch on the West Coast. Sullivan considers a return to the Rangers unlikely.
Guardado, 39, posted a 4.46 ERA in 38.3 innings this year, with fairly ugly peripheral stats. He hasn't shown much of a platoon split over the last three seasons, with lefties hitting .265/.329/.449 against him.
Odds & Ends: Towers, Randy Johnson, Arroyo
Links for Monday…
- Former GM Kevin Towers will attend the Winter Meetings and meet with three or four teams about possible employment, according to Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports. Towers prefers the American League.
- Randy Johnson is undecided about pitching in 2010, say Rosenthal and Morosi.
- MLB.com's Mark Bowman tells readers in his latest mailbag that he wouldn't be surprised to see the Braves trade Jordan Schafer.
- Mike Axisa of River Ave. Blues speculates on what the Yankees would have to give up for Josh Johnson.
- ESPN's Buster Olney compares a potential Joe Mauer extension to Todd Helton's contract, in that it'd make up such a large percentage of the Twins' payroll.
- Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel discovered that a handful of teams have avoided four-year commitments to pitchers in recent years.
- Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos talked to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports about the team's strategy to beef up scouting.
- For someone who hasn't been paying attention to the hot stove, Bronson Arroyo has a reasonable take on the Reds' direction and recent Scott Rolen/Ramon Hernandez commitments (MLB.com's Mark Sheldon reporting).
- ESPN's Jerry Crasnick discusses the role of advanced defensive metrics in player acquisitions.
- MetsBlog's Matthew Cerrone notes that a very similar report surfaced in three different media outlets within a span of a few hours.