Tim Dierkes | MLB Trade Rumors

2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | September 1, 2016 at 10:20am CDT

Most players have about 30 remaining regular season games to add to their free agent bona fides. Postseason heroics don’t always change a free agent’s valuation, as Daniel Murphy can attest. Still, the majority of players on this list will see their seasons extend into the playoffs, providing a chance to shine on baseball’s biggest stage. The players below are ranked on their expected earning power in free agency. To view the full list of 2016-17 MLB free agents, click here.

1. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes aggravated his quad in early August, but returned to close out the month with five home runs in 11 games. He’s showing more power than ever and has even started drawing walks. Cespedes, who turns 31 in October, told reporters recently he’d like to spend the rest of his career with the Mets, but he has not made a decision about his opt-out clause. Barring a large extension with the Mets, it is a virtual lock Cespedes opts out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM left on his contract in search of a bigger commitment.

2. Aroldis Chapman. Aside from a laborious save last night at Wrigley, Chapman had a fine month for the Cubs. He appears in line to score a record contract for a reliever this winter.

3. Kenley Jansen. Jansen had a few rare blips in August, but he’s still right there with Chapman as one of the game’s dominant ninth inning forces. Chapman, Jansen, and Mark Melancon are poised to take the free agent relief market to new heights in a few months. Of the three, only Jansen will be subject to a qualifying offer, if that system remains in place.

4. Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion had another fine month with the bat, slugging eight more home runs to bring his total to 36. His career-high of 42 bombs is within reach. Unfortunately, Encarnacion has drawn attention for a lawsuit in which a woman alleges he knowingly infected her with sexually transmitted diseases in February. Any team considering signing Encarnacion this offseason is going to have questions and concerns about this situation.

5. Wilson Ramos. Ramos had a respectable August, with his career-best home run total climbing to 20. Among full-time catchers, that mark ties him for second in all of baseball. Ramos celebrated his 29th birthday in August, and his youth opens up the possibility of a five-year deal in free agency. If the bidding results in a contract near Russell Martin’s five-year, $82MM pact, Ramos could be the second-biggest earner among all free agents. For more on Ramos’ market, check out Jeff Todd’s Free Agent Stock Watch.

6. Ian Desmond. Desmond hit a bump in the road in August, batting just .241/.276/.276 in 123 plate appearances for the Rangers. He’s no longer the free agent WAR leader. Desmond’s overall resurgent campaign still justifies a four-year deal, with strong contributions in hitting, baserunning, and defense.

7. Justin Turner. At 4.3 WAR, Turner is the most valuable free agent currently. The 31-year-old has combined his typical above average third base defense with newfound power at the plate. Turner’s 24 home runs marks a career high, though his batting average has slipped from the lofty heights of 2014-15. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd dissected Turner’s season and market position at length in this recent Free Agent Stock Watch.

8. Mark Trumbo. Trumbo leads all of MLB with 40 home runs, after adding ten more in August. It was an all or nothing month for the 30-year-old right-handed slugger, who hit .181/.280/.500 in 107 plate appearances. Oddly, Trumbo has struggled against left-handed pitching this year, after hitting .272/.328/.542 off southpaws from 2013-15. His poor defensive season is less of a surprise. Unlike a player like Desmond, Trumbo can only help a team in one area: power. I still think he has a reasonable chance at a four-year deal, though about 58% of MLBTR readers don’t think he’ll get one.

9. Jose Bautista. Bautista, 35, missed a chunk of August due to a knee sprain. While his offensive rate stats are down, the bigger concern is his health and defense moving forward. In the aforementioned survey, less than 13% of MLBTR readers think Bautista will get a four-year deal this winter. I agree with that assessment.

10. Josh Reddick. Reddick held the third spot on this list a month ago. Since being traded to the Dodgers, he’s hitting just .161/.223/.172 in 94 plate appearances. One month may not torpedo his free agent value entirely, and he still has September and October to build it back up. MLBTR’s writing team has debated whether Reddick can still land a four-year deal, with Jeff Todd’s Nick Markakis comp suggesting it’s possible. The ever-pessimistic MLBTR readership gives only a 26% chance of a four-year deal for Reddick. If they’re correct, he won’t hold a spot in the top ten.

An honorable mention goes to Mets second baseman Neil Walker, who held the tenth spot on this list until news broke that he’s likely to undergo season-ending back surgery. I would not rule out a four-year deal for Walker, who set a career-high of 3.8 WAR in just 113 games. Others who are not too far from cracking the top ten: Dexter Fowler, Michael Saunders, and Mark Melancon. The market will also feature power bats Mike Napoli, Brandon Moss, and Carlos Beltran, great speed and baserunning in Rajai Davis, and high contact hitter Martin Prado.

You may have noticed the complete lack of starting pitchers mentioned. The free agent market for starting pitching looks historically bleak this winter, with Jeremy Hellickson, Ivan Nova, and Rich Hill as the top-ranked arms.

Which Of These Free Agents Will Get Four-Year Deals?

By Tim Dierkes | August 29, 2016 at 3:06pm CDT

Last offseason, 14 players received free agent contracts of four or more years, excluding international signings. Some of the borderline guys, like Ben Zobrist and Darren O’Day, successfully obtained the guaranteed fourth year. Others, such as Yoenis Cespedes and Daniel Murphy, were not able to get there, at least at an acceptable salary. This winter, Cespedes and elite relievers Aroldis Chapman and Kenley Jansen seem locks for four-plus years. Everyone else, not so much. Here are 13 cases to consider, and vote on:

Edwin Encarnacion, 34 years old in January. Encarnacion is having a great season, sitting second in MLB with 36 home runs. He’s hit 34+ home runs in each of the last five seasons. His market will likely be limited to the American League, though there is precedent with Nelson Cruz’s four-year, $57MM deal. Encarnacion is facing a lawsuit alleging he knowingly infected a woman with multiple STDs in February.
Ian Desmond, 31 in September. Desmond has reinvented himself as the Rangers’ center fielder, though he has struggled offensively this month.
Jose Bautista, 36 in October. Bautista recently finished his second DL stint of the year, and his production has been down this season. He’s the oldest player in this poll.
Mark Trumbo, 31 in January. Trumbo leads MLB with 40 home runs, but he also sports a .317 on-base percentage and has struggled on defense.
Wilson Ramos, turned 29 this month. The Nationals’ catcher has age on his side, and is in the midst of a breakout season.
Justin Turner, 32 in November. Zobrist signed his deal heading into his age-35 season, so surely his contract will be considered a precedent by Turner’s agent. Turner has set a career-high with 24 home runs already, and is headed toward a career best in games played.
Neil Walker, 31 in September. After being traded to the Mets in December, Walker is having the best season of his career. Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM deal with the Yankees in December 2014 suggests Walker can reach the same term.
Dexter Fowler, 31 in March. Fowler ranks eighth in the NL with a .389 OBP, though a June hamstring injury may keep him shy of 130 games played for the third time in the last four years.
Michael Saunders, 30 in November. Like Desmond, Saunders has re-established himself but scuffled in August. As with a few others on this list, Saunders’ injury history will give teams pause.
Josh Reddick, 30 in February. Reddick once seemed like a lock for four years, but he missed time earlier this year due to a broken thumb and has been terrible since joining the Dodgers in a deadline deal. It’s fair to question whether four years will be on the table for him.
Mark Melancon, 32 in March. Though not as dominant with strikeouts as Chapman and Jansen, Melancon has a 1.75 ERA in 272 innings since 2013, and he’s been great for the Nationals. His agent will at least aim for four years.
Jeremy Hellickson, 30 in April. Hellickson is one of the best free agent starters available this winter, and the weak market and his relative youth could theoretically push him to a four-year deal.
Ivan Nova, 30 in January. Nova is a long shot for four years, but he’s been great since coming over to the Pirates, and teams can act irrationally in free agency.

Your turn: which of these free agents will get four or more years? Check all that apply, and click here to view the results. Those using our app or Safari on their cell phone can click here for the poll.

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Yankees To Hold Press Conference With Alex Rodriguez

By Tim Dierkes | August 7, 2016 at 12:18am CDT

The Yankees will hold a press conference with Alex Rodriguez Sunday at 11am eastern time, according to an announcement from the team. The reason for the press conference is unknown. Rodriguez, 41, has limped to a .204/.252/.356 line in 234 plate appearances this year as the team’s designated hitter. He currently ranks fourth all-time with 696 career home runs. Though A-Rod is owed $20MM next year, it’s fair to speculate whether his time with the Yankees is coming to an end.

2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | August 3, 2016 at 11:23pm CDT

Pending free agents traded during the month of July included Josh Reddick, Aroldis Chapman, Mark Melancon, Rich Hill, Andrew Cashner, Steve Pearce, Carlos Beltran, Ivan Nova, and Jesse Chavez. Under the current Collective Bargaining Agreement, a midseason trade disqualifies a player from receiving a qualifying offer. The value of the one-year offer is expected to be around $16.7MM this winter. Since such an offer ties the player to draft pick compensation, avoiding one can be a big benefit for him.

The current CBA expires on December 1st of this year. The November qualifying offer and acceptance dates remain in place until a new agreement is reached. A new agreement could completely eliminate, modify, or maintain the current system. It’s an unknown at this point.

Below, I’ve ranked the 2016-17 free agents by earning power. You can view the full list of free agents here.

1. Yoenis Cespedes. Cespedes suffered a quad strain on July 8th, skipping the All-Star Game as a result. While he’s avoided a DL stint thus far, Cespedes will be used as a left fielder for the remainder of the season as a precaution. He’s expected to serve as the Mets’ designated hitter tonight against the Yankees, and doesn’t have to worry about playing the field until the team returns to National League contests on Tuesday. In his brief 48 plate appearances since the injury, Cespedes’ power has been missing. It remains to be seen how the injury will affect him over the Mets’ remaining 56 regular season games. Regardless, Cespedes seems very likely to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM remaining on his contract after the season. If he does, he’ll likely retain his position as our top-ranked free agent.

2. Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion moves up a spot after a strong July. He’s on pace for a career-high 44 home runs, and with 29 bombs to date he’s one behind Mark Trumbo and Todd Frazier for the MLB lead. Since Encarnacion turns 34 in January, he seems limited to a four-year term in free agency. Still, that could be at a salary of $20MM or more.

3. Josh Reddick. Reddick and teammate Rich Hill were traded by the A’s to the Dodgers on Monday’s trade deadline. Reddick was a near-lock for a qualifying offer, so the trade boosts his earning power. He doesn’t turn 30 until February, so Reddick should be in line for a four or five-year deal. He had a strong July and has a chance to raise his profile as a key member of the Dodgers’ offense.

4. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman joins our top five for the first time. The Cubs’ new closer also finds himself ineligible for a qualifying offer. While I’ve felt Chapman’s October domestic violence incident could tamp down his free agent earning power, it didn’t seem to affect his trade value last month. There is only one Aroldis Chapman, a lefty capable of pumping 104 mile per hour fastballs in the ninth inning. The incident may have little bearing on his next contract. It will be interesting to see Chapman and Kenley Jansen jockeying for record relief contracts this winter, possibly five-year deals in excess of $70MM.

5. Kenley Jansen. Jansen’s excellent season continues, and he may be able to top his career-high of 44 saves. Just 29 in September, Jansen is a dominant ninth inning force. Some teams will prefer him to Chapman.

6. Ian Desmond. Desmond’s power resurgence may lead to his first career 30 home run season. Slotting in around the top of the Rangers’ order, which is more imposing with the trade deadline additions of Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Beltran, Desmond could score 110 runs this year. He leads all pending free agents with 4.4 wins above replacement, as a fine center fielder with renewed power. Desmond will turn 31 in September. He’s about the same age as Cespedes, but older than Reddick. The comps don’t really matter though – free agency will be an auction for his services, and I imagine he’ll be seeking a five-year deal. If Desmond gets that fifth year, he’ll likely out-earn everyone on this list aside from Cespedes.

7. Jose Bautista. Bautista tumbles down the Power Rankings, as I’m currently pegging him for a three-year deal. 36 in October, Bautista returned from a toe injury on July 25th. He’ll need a strong finish to convince teams that his age 36-39 seasons are a strong investment, especially with a qualifying offer attached.

8. Wilson Ramos. Ramos posted a solid July and has already tied his career high of 16 home runs. He’s been the most valuable catcher in baseball this year at 3.4 WAR, and doesn’t turn 29 until next week. It’s time to start considering a five-year deal as a legitimate possibility for Ramos, whose earning power has skyrocketed with his well-timed breakout.

9. Mark Trumbo. Trumbo crushed seven more home runs in July. He was the first player to reach 30 this year, and is on pace for 46 longballs for the season. Like fellow free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, Trumbo is a liability on defense. Trumbo strikes out more and walks less than EE, and consistently posts a low on-base percentage. For some GMs, a 40 home run, 110 RBI right-handed bat for the middle of the order still speaks for itself. Trumbo’s agent will likely be vying for a fourth year.

10. Dexter Fowler. The tenth spot came down to Fowler, Justin Turner, and Michael Saunders. A case can be made for any of them, but I’ll take Fowler by a hair. Fowler ranks eighth in baseball with a .403 OBP, and he plays center field. Teams will be wary of going four years on a player with his injury history, but he’ll still do much better in free agency this time around.

Turner and Saunders each have a shot at their first 30 home run season. Both players have already set career bests in homers. Neither Turner nor Saunders has ever played 140 games in a season, so a four-year investment would be risky.

The 2016-17 free agent market looks historically bleak for starting pitching. You’ve got Rich Hill, who has been brilliant but turns 37 in March and has been limited to 14 starts this year due to injuries. One of the top starters might be Jeremy Hellickson, who turns 30 in April and has a 3.70 ERA in 22 starts for the Phillies. Barring an August trade, however, Hellickson seems likely to come with a qualifying offer attached. There’s also Andrew Cashner, the hardest-throwing free agent starter. 30 in September, Cashner is having another middling year and will try to finish on a high note with the Marlins.

Orioles Acquire Steve Pearce

By Tim Dierkes | August 1, 2016 at 3:48pm CDT

The Orioles acquired infielder Steve Pearce from the Rays, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. The Rays will receive 21-year-old High-A catcher Jonah Heim in return, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Orioles have officially announced the deal.

Pearce, 33, had a successful run with Baltimore from 2013-15 before signing with Tampa Bay on a one-year free agent deal. He’s owed about $1.6MM for the rest of the season, plus incentives once he reaches 400 plate appearances. Pearce, a right-handed hitter, has an excellent .309/.388/.520 line in 232 plate appearances on the season. He’s done a lot of damage against lefties, crushing five home runs and four doubles in just 63 plate appearances. For the Rays, Pearce has mostly served as a first baseman, second baseman, and designated hitter. He’s played the outfield as well, and Orioles executive vice president of baseball operations Dan Duquette said today on MLB Network Radio that the veteran’s versatility will allow the club to carry an extra pitcher. You can check out the Orioles’ updated depth chart here.

Heim has struggled offensively at High-A this year, hitting .216/.300/.344 in 329 plate appearances. MLB Pipeline ranked him 13th among Orioles prospects, praising his defense and makeup. The Rays will hope the switch-hitting Heim progresses offensively in the coming years. The Rays made two additional trade deadline deals today, sending Matt Moore to the Giants and Brandon Guyer to the Indians.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants Acquire Will Smith

By Tim Dierkes | August 1, 2016 at 3:37pm CDT

The Giants acquired left-handed reliever Will Smith from the Brewers, tweets Yahoo’s Jeff Passan. The Brewers will receive minor league pitcher Phil Bickford and catcher Andrew Susac, tweets Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. The trade is now official, according to the Brewers.

Smith, 27, has a 3.68 ERA, 9.0 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.23 HR/9, and a 33.3% groundball rate in 22 innings for the Brewers this year. He dealt with a torn LCL in his knee in March, making his season debut on June 2nd after rehabbing the injury. Notably, the southpaw is exhibiting nearly a two-tick decline in his average fastball as against his prior numbers, and that remains a concern. The knee is an obvious question mark in that regard, though certainly it’s possible that Smith will just need to continue building back full body strength after the injury.

Health is always an important factor, but never more than when making an investment in a player that goes into the future. While San Francisco won’t be promising any future salary to Smith, they were buying into his control rights and paid to do so. He is under team control through 2019 as an arbitration eligible player. That contract status also conveys some real upside, especially if Smith can get back to his former trajectory. He was particularly tough in 2015, with a 2.70 ERA and 12.9 K/9.

The first-place Giants have received a middling 3.76 ERA from their relievers, and paid a trade deadline premium to acquire the controllable Smith. Drafted in the seventh round by the Angels in 2008, Smith was dealt to the Royals in the 2010 Alberto Callaspo trade. Later, after the 2013 campaign, the Brewers acquired him for Nori Aoki.

Now, Milwaukee has cashed in on the southpaw — in addition to moving late-inning righty Jeremy Jeffress in a separate trade. The haul seems to be rather promising, and swaps out the valuable-but-risky seasons remaining on Smith’s control rights for many more years of control on two solid young assets.

Bickford, 21, was drafted 18th overall by the Giants last year and is currently working at High-A. In their midseason prospect rankings, Baseball America had Bickford 50th overall, while MLB.com ranked him 65th. BA says Bickford’s fastball is known for its movement, and he throws a plus slider. The jury is out on whether he’ll wind up a reliever. Bickford had been drafted tenth overall by the Blue Jays in 2013, but did not sign.

Susac, 26, could take over as the Brewers’ starting catcher if Jonathan Lucroy is traded today. Since being drafted in the second round in 2011, Susac has been blocked by Buster Posey. He did get some Major League experience in 2014 and ’15, but has spent all of this year at Triple-A. He’s hitting .273/.343/.455 in 239 plate appearances at that level.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs Acquire Joe Smith

By Tim Dierkes | August 1, 2016 at 3:15pm CDT

The Cubs acquired reliever Joe Smith from the Angels, tweets ESPN’s Buster Olney. The Halos will receive minor league pitcher Jesus Castillo from the Cubs, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The Cubs have officially announced the deal.

Smith, a 32-year-old righty, has been OK this year. The veteran has a 3.82 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, and 54.8% groundball rate in 37 2/3 innings, missing most of June due to a hamstring strain. Smith has about $1.8MM remaining on his contract, after which he’ll be eligible for free agency. He signed a three-year, $15.75MM deal with the Angels in November 2013 after a long, successful run with the Indians. Unlike years past, the sidearming Smith has not been great against right-handed hitters in 2016. It’s been a month of bullpen additions for the Cubs, who previously added Aroldis Chapman, Mike Montgomery, and Joe Nathan.

Castillo, 20, has posted a 3.27 ERA in seven starts for the Cubs’ Low-A affiliate this year. The Cubs previously acquired Castillo from the Diamonbacks in the February 2013 Tony Campana trade.

In another deadline day deal, the Angels traded Hector Santiago and a minor leaguer to the Twins for Ricky Nolasco and Alex Meyer.

Mets Out On Lucroy; Rangers Still In Pursuit

By Tim Dierkes | August 1, 2016 at 2:44pm CDT

Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy scuttled a trade to the Indians yesterday, but he’s still in play in advance of today’s trade deadline. Milwaukee has their Triple-A catcher Manny Pina up with the big league team in San Diego to prepare for a Lucroy trade, according to Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. Haudricourt further notes that Lucroy remained in Milwaukee last night, and will fly to San Diego in time for tonight’s game in the event he’s not traded. The latest:

The Rangers are deep in talks on Lucroy, per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). Gallo would indeed be the centerpiece, he adds.
The Mets are now out on Lucroy, Buster Olney of ESPN.com tweets.
With the Rangers adding Carlos Beltran, Gallo is now more available to go in a deal for Lucroy, Haudricourt tweets.

Earlier Updates

Meanwhile, the Mets are still working on a Lucroy deal, Marc Carig of Newsday tweets.
Even if the trade for Jay Bruce goes through, it wouldn’t take the Mets out of the race for Lucroy, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets. Milwaukee is seeking infielder Dilson Herrera in a deal, per Rosenthal (via Twitter). A package would also still include catcher Travis d’Arnaud, as has long been rumored. Perhaps that ask is what leads Jon Heyman of Fan Rag to tweet that New York’s interest is “on life support” at this time, though.
It seems that Joey Gallo is on the table for Lucroy, as we’ve heard suggested before, but only if there’s an arm included in the deal as well, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter). It’s not clear exactly what pitcher that might be, but certainly there are several relievers that could make sense, as Grant explains. The Brewers could be looking into whether a preferable deal is available involving only the backstop, Haudricourt suggests on Twitter.
Texas and Milwaukee haven’t chatted since last night, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. He suggests it is possible that other teams could get involved, with the Astros named as a speculative possibility, though he goes on to note via Twitter that the Tigers aren’t among them. Of course, it’s also possible that the Rangers and Brewers know each others’ positions, with Milwaukee now just circling back to other organizations before making a call.
The Rangers “keep plugging away on Lucroy,” tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick. Crasnick, however, believes the Brewers may need to lower their expectations to get a deal done today. From Milwaukee’s perspective, though, that isn’t going to happen, per a Haudricourt tweet. The team would rather hold Lucroy for offseason trade market than sell him short of his value now, per the report. A lively game of chicken certainly seems to be set up for these teams today.

Indians Designate Juan Uribe For Assignment

By Tim Dierkes | August 1, 2016 at 2:19pm CDT

The Indians designated third baseman Juan Uribe for assignment, according to an announcement from the team. The move clears a roster spot for new acquisition Brandon Guyer, acquired in a trade with the Rays today. Uribe, 37, posted a .206/.259/.332 line in 259 plate appearances for the Indians this year, tallying over 500 innings at the hot corner. The team had signed the beloved veteran to a $4MM free agent deal in February.

Latest On Joe Smith

By Tim Dierkes | August 1, 2016 at 12:22pm CDT

The Cubs are discussing a trade with the Angels for reliever Joe Smith, tweets Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. The Cubs are considering other possibilities as well, according to Rosenthal. As you can see on our Cubs depth chart page, Theo Epstein and company have already augmented their bullpen with the acquisitions of Aroldis Chapman and Mike Montgomery, as well as the activation of veteran Joe Nathan.

In addition to the Cubs, the Angels are talking about Smith with two other teams, according to Rosenthal. He has previously been linked to the Mets, Indians, Mariners, and Cardinals. The 32-year-old righty has been OK this year, with a 3.82 ERA, 6.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 0.96 HR/9, and 54.8% groundball rate in 37 2/3 innings. Smith has about $1.8MM remaining on his contract, after which he’ll be eligible for free agency.

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