Tim Dierkes | MLB Trade Rumors

Top 50 Free Agents Chat Transcript

By Tim Dierkes | November 10, 2015 at 2:00pm CDT

Our top 50 free agents list with team and contract predictions came out on Friday. Today, I chatted with MLBTR readers about all things related to players on that list. Click here to read the transcript.

2015-16 Top 50 MLB Free Agents With Predictions

By Tim Dierkes | November 9, 2015 at 12:14am CDT

Just in time for the tenth anniversary of MLB Trade Rumors, our Top 50 Free Agents list has arrived! The entire list of available free agents can be found here, and you can filter by position, signing team, and qualifying offer status with our free agent tracker here.

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This is the fifth year for our free agent prediction contest, which allows you to test your prognostication abilities against those of the MLBTR writing team as well as other readers. Last year 3,469 people entered, with Carson Pennington taking home the batting title with 15 correct picks out of 49, a .306 average. Mark Polishuk topped MLBTR writers with 14 correct. The contest is back for 2016 and is open now! You can enter your picks anytime between now and November 13th at 11:59pm central time, and you’re free to make changes up until that point. A Facebook account is required to participate in the contest. Once all top 50 players have signed, the winners will receive cash prizes.

This year, I asked MLBTR writers Steve Adams, Jeff Todd, Mark Polishuk, Charlie Wilmoth, Zach Links, and Brad Johnson to send me their picks so I could compare to my own. Discussions with the MLBTR writing team, especially Steve and Jeff, helped inform the predictions found below. Each player’s team was picked in a vacuum, so we’re not predicting the Nationals will sign both Justin Upton and Gerardo Parra. Additionally, we’ve added our contract predictions to the mix. We vetted these as much as possible, but with 50 predictions and a volatile free agent marketplace, we know we’ll be off on some. Still, the contract predictions give a more clear criteria, as players are ranked by earning power. Without further ado, we’re proud to present MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents!

1. David Price – Cubs. Seven years, $217MM. Price is a true number one starter in his prime. The 30-year-old southpaw posted a 2.45 ERA in 220 1/3 innings for the Tigers and Blue Jays, and is ineligible for a qualifying offer due to a July trade. Price is a five-time All-Star and the 2012 Cy Young winner, and he’s got a shot at the award again this year. Even in a free agent market flush with unprecedented starting pitching, Price is the cream of the crop and should command a record deal. Clayton Kershaw’s seven-year, $215MM extension signed in January 2014 should be his target. The Cubs are the early favorite, as they are known to be seeking an impact starting pitcher and Joe Maddon managed Price with the Rays. The Blue Jays will attempt to bring Price back, while the Dodgers, Red Sox, and Giants figure to be among those in the mix.

2. Jason Heyward – Yankees. Ten years, $200MM. Since his 2010 rookie season, Heyward has quietly been one of the game’s best outfielders. He’s an excellent defender and baserunner with a solid on-base percentage and some pop. Heyward hit a career-high 27 home runs in 2012, but only 38 in the three seasons since. He doesn’t have the typical power output of a $200MM player, but his all-around game makes him a sabermetric darling with six wins above replacement this year. A very long term and an opt-out clause are on the table for Heyward because he broke into the Majors at age 20, and is now just 26. The Cardinals will try to convince Heyward to stay, but teams like the Angels, Yankees, White Sox, and Astros could make a play. For more on Heyward, click here.

3. Zack Greinke – Dodgers. Six years, $156MM. Greinke is a contender for the NL Cy Young Award after leading all of baseball with a 1.66 ERA in 222 2/3 innings. He’s been an elite starting pitcher since winning the AL award with the 2009 Royals, and has already earned over $100MM in his career. Greinke’s 2012 free agent deal with the Dodgers included a clause allowing him to opt out of the $71MM remaining over the final three seasons, and he’s done just that in search of a guarantee of more than twice that much. Since Greinke recently turned 32, a six-year deal may be out of some teams’ comfort zone. It’s possible he’ll get into the $150MM range even on a five-year term, however. His market should be similar to that of Price, but the 22 month age difference will keep Greinke from matching his contract.

4. Justin Upton – Nationals. Seven years, $147MM. Drafted first overall by the Diamondbacks a decade ago, Upton hasn’t quite reached the lofty expectations placed on him. He’s still a solid source of right-handed power, with 82 home runs over the last three seasons. Upton turned 28 in August, so there’s room to grow. Even if he doesn’t, he could still provide decent value at a contract similar to the one Jacoby Ellsbury signed two years ago with the Yankees. Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was Arizona’s scouting director when they drafted Upton, and there could be a fit if the team is willing to move Bryce Harper to center field. The Yankees, Angels, Rangers, and Giants are other potential matches. Click here for our full profile on Upton.

5. Chris Davis – Cardinals. Six years, $144MM. Davis is baseball’s most prolific home run hitter, leading the Majors in 2013 and 2015. He’s a middle of the order monster and he doesn’t turn 30 until March. Agent Scott Boras will attempt to downplay Davis’ high strikeout rate and his 2014 suspension for use of Adderall. Boras will push for seven years for Davis, a term he achieved with Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo previously. First base is not an in-demand position this winter, so finding a match for Davis is difficult. He would be a great addition to the Cardinals’ lineup if they lose Heyward. The Orioles will stay involved, while the Astros, Mariners, and Padres make some degree of sense. Click here for more on Davis.

6. Yoenis Cespedes – Angels. Six years, $140MM. Cespedes, 30, vaulted up the free agent ranks after bashing 25 home runs in the season’s final three months. Signed by the Athletics for $36MM as a free agent out of Cuba, Cespedes’ choice to limit that contract to four years has paid off. He’s ineligible for a qualifying offer, and seems unlikely to return to the Mets. The Angels are one possibility for Cespedes, though they would prefer a left-handed masher. The Astros, Giants, Mariners, White Sox, Rangers, and Yankees could get in the mix, but this one’s tough to predict.

7. Jordan Zimmermann – Blue Jays. Six years, $126MM. Zimmermann could become the first Tommy John survivor to score a $100MM contract. He has a 3.13 ERA over 810 1/3 innings over the last four seasons, but slipped a bit in 2015 and doesn’t boast the strikeout rate of other top arms. Since Zimmermann won’t turn 30 until May, a six-year term is attainable. The Blue Jays need arms, and executive Dana Brown was the Nationals’ scouting director when Zimmermann was drafted in ’07. The Cubs, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Tigers are other good matches. Click here for more on Zimmermann.

8. Johnny Cueto – Red Sox. Five years, $115MM. Cueto served as the Reds’ ace for many years until the Royals acquired him in July, removing his qualifying offer eligibility. Prior to the trade, he went two weeks between starts due to an elbow issue, but avoided the DL. Cueto was not the dominant force the Royals expected, as he posted a 4.76 ERA in 13 regular season starts and pitched poorly in two of his four postseason outings. The righty capped his season with a complete game to take Game 2 of the World Series. Cueto’s performance since August may have knocked down his free agent value, leaving teams wary of guaranteeing a sixth year. He could still be the ace the Red Sox are seeking, as predicted by five of seven MLBTR writers, or clubs such as the Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Astros, or Blue Jays could win the bidding.

9. Alex Gordon – Royals. Five years, $105MM. Gordon was drafted second overall by the Royals in 2005, one pick after Upton. He has become one of the game’s best left fielders, combining elite defense with excellent on-base skills and decent pop. Gordon’s left-handed bat would look great in a lot of lineups, but most MLBTR writers expect him to remain in Kansas City. How far will the World Champion Royals push the hometown discount? We feel Gordon’s earning power is around $100MM, so it’s hard to picture him accepting something below $75MM.

10. Ian Desmond – Mets. Five years, $80MM. Perhaps the game’s best shortstop from 2012-14, Desmond slumped to a .233/.290/.384 batting line in 2015. He still hit 19 home runs, and is easily the best available at his position. Three MLBTR writers feel the Mets will sign their longtime Nationals adversary, while the Padres and White Sox also got mentions. Desmond will come with a qualifying offer attached.

11. Jeff Samardzija – Giants. Five years, $80MM. After posting a 2.99 ERA in 2014, Samardzija seemed like another potential member of the $100MM club. Instead, he struggled with the White Sox in 2015, leading MLB in hits and earned runs allowed. Executives to whom we’ve spoken still like him the most out of the second tier starters, and think he’ll bounce back from this year’s 4.96 ERA. Shark had an unconventional path to the Majors, serving as a wide receiver at Notre Dame and pitching mostly as a reliever until 2012. That has kept his mileage down relative to someone like Yovani Gallardo, who is a year younger but has thrown nearly 27% more career innings. The Yankees are known to like Samardzija, but the Giants, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Astros are just a few others who could get involved.

12. Mike Leake – Giants. Five years, $80MM. Leake is younger than his free agent peers, as he doesn’t turn 28 until next week. The Reds drafted him in the first round in 2009 and put him straight into the Majors in 2010. Leake profiles as a sub-4.00 ERA, mid-rotation arm, and he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer due to his trade to the Giants. His age puts five years on the table. The Giants generally retain their guys and are the prohibitive favorite, though the Diamondbacks are known to like him. To read our full profile on Leake, click here.

13. Wei-Yin Chen – Tigers. Five years, $80MM. Chen, a native of Taiwan, was signed by the Orioles out of Japan in 2012. Though he’s been prone to the longball, the lefty has posted a 3.44 ERA in 377 innings over the last two seasons. Boras figures to position him as a cut above the typical mid-rotation arms, pushing for a fifth year despite a qualifying offer. In need of multiple arms, the Boras-friendly Tigers could be a match.

14. Kenta Maeda – Diamondbacks. $20MM posting fee plus five year, $60MM contract. Maeda, 28 in April, recently finished his eighth season with Japan’s Hiroshima Carp. After he put up a 2.09 ERA in 206 1/3 innings, the Carp may decide to post Maeda. The posting system established in 2013 caps the posting fee at $20MM, allowing all teams that tie for the highest posting bid to negotiate with the player for 30 days. Diamondbacks GM Dave Stewart admitted a year ago he loves Maeda, so Arizona is a strong contender.

15. Matt Wieters – Nationals. Four years, $64MM. Another former first-round draft pick, the switch-hitting Wieters has an above average bat for a catcher and little competition on the market at his position. As with Upton, there’s a feeling Wieters hasn’t lived up to expectations, but he’s still a quality player. His contract will be depressed by last year’s Tommy John surgery, which delayed his 2015 debut until June and prevented him from catching on consecutive days regularly. We expect him to turn down the Orioles’ qualifying offer, and the Nationals could sign Wieters as an upgrade over Wilson Ramos. The Braves make sense with Wieters’ strong Georgia ties, while the Angels, Astros, and White Sox could be fits. Click here for our full profile of Wieters.

16. Dexter Fowler – Mets. Four years, $60MM. Fowler, 30 in March, joined the Cubs from the Astros in a January trade. He did a fine job as the Cubs’ center fielder, playing in a career-high 156 regular season games and quieting concerns about his 2014 defensive metrics. The switch-hitter posted his standard solid OBP and a career-best 17 home runs, so he’ll be turning down the Cubs’ qualifying offer in search of a multiyear deal. A return to the Cubs makes sense, but if they decide to move on, the Mets, Nationals, Angels, Marlins, and White Sox are some decent matches. Teams like the Mariners and Rangers may seek help in center field, but may be reluctant to forfeit their first-round draft pick.

17. Daniel Murphy – Angels. Four years, $56MM. Murphy, 31 in April, has long served as a solid second baseman for the Mets. He had the best contact rate in baseball among qualified hitters this year and can also handle third base. He’s a below average defensive second baseman. After hitting a career-high 14 home runs in the regular season, Murphy smashed seven more in the span of seven postseason games against the Dodgers and Cubs. His bat quieted in the World Series, and he also committed a costly error in Game 4. The idea that 14 postseason games had his free agent value swinging $20MM in either direction was always nonsense, as a qualifying offer and a contract in the range of Chase Headley’s four-year, $52MM pact made sense for Murphy before the postseason narratives set in. The Angels and Yankees are the favorites among MLBTR writers, with the White Sox also getting a mention.

18. Scott Kazmir – Orioles. Four years, $52MM. Kazmir put up an excellent 3.10 ERA in 183 innings this year for the Athletics and Astros. Though he was either struggling or out of the Majors from 2009-12, Kazmir has re-established himself over the last three seasons. The southpaw, who is ineligible for a qualifying offer, has a case for a four-year deal. I don’t completely subscribe to the narrative, but Kazmir will have to contend with the impression that he fades down the stretch. The Orioles, perhaps seeking a more affordable southpaw to replace Wei-Yin Chen, could pursue Kazmir. The Tigers, Blue Jays, Giants, Dodgers, Padres, and Royals are other possibilities.

19. Ian Kennedy – Angels. Four years, $52MM. Kennedy had a 4.28 ERA for the Padres but seemed deserving of better. He will deal with the drag of a qualifying offer, but several teams will gravitate toward a pitcher with a 9.3 K/9 over the last two seasons. Kennedy’s biggest issue is home runs; no one posted a higher rate per nine innings this year. The Angels, Giants, Astros, Tigers, Blue Jays, and Orioles are potential suitors.

20. Yovani Gallardo – Tigers. Four years, $52MM. Gallardo, 30 in February, spent his career with the Brewers before a January trade to the Rangers. Once one of the NL’s better pitchers, Gallardo has settled in as a mid-rotation arm. His peripheral stats this year suggest he was fortunate to manage a 3.42 ERA, and his qualifying offer could hamper his market. The Tigers could work, as a team seeking multiple starters with a protected first-rounder.

21. Ben Zobrist – Yankees. Three years, $51MM. Baseball’s Swiss Army knife would fit with more than a dozen teams, as he can handle second base and the outfield corners and even back up at shortstop. Offensively, Zobrist contributes a strong OBP and good pop, plus he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer because he was traded to the Royals. He’ll be vying for a fourth year, and Victor Martinez did get that, but with Zobrist turning 35 in May it’s still a tough sell. He remains a good fit for the Royals, while the Yankees, Orioles, Padres, Astros, and White Sox could also make sense.

22. Howie Kendrick – White Sox. Four years, $50MM. Kendrick presents an alternative to Murphy, from the right side of the plate. He remains an above-average hitter and is considered a competent second baseman. After nine seasons with the Angels, Kendrick was traded to the Dodgers last December. The 32-year-old will likely seek a four-year deal, which may cause a few suitors to back away. The White Sox have a protected first-round pick and could stabilize second base with Kendrick. The Yankees, Royals, Angels, and Mets are other possibilities.

23. Byung-ho Park – Rockies. $10MM posting fee plus five-year, $40MM contract. Park, a 29-year-old first baseman from the Korea Baseball Organization, was posted by the Nexen Heroes this week. In the wake of the Pirates’ success with Jung-ho Kang, Park’s price tag should exceed that $16MM expenditure. Park had big home run numbers but played in a very homer-friendly league. We may learn next week which MLB team won the posting bidding and if the Heroes will accept it, making this an easier pick for our free agent prediction contest. The Rockies, Orioles, Cardinals, Indians, Mariners, Marlins, Padres, Phillies, and Pirates are potential matches.

24. John Lackey – Cubs. Three years, $50MM. Lackey had a fantastic year for the Cardinals, with a 2.77 ERA in 218 innings. His base salary was the league minimum due to an injury-related clause he agreed to upon signing with Theo Epstein’s Red Sox in 2009, but the Cards added $2MM in performance bonuses. After that bargain, the Cardinals made the $15.8MM qualifying offer, and Lackey is expected to turn it down in search of a multiyear deal. He recently turned 37, so some suitors could be wary of a three-year deal. The Cubs, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Astros, Royals, Giants, Tigers, Blue Jays, Orioles, Mariners, Marlins, Nationals, Rangers, Twins, and Yankees could all be part of his robust market.

25. Hisashi Iwakuma – Mariners. Three years, $45MM. Iwakuma’s run of success continued with the Mariners, as he posted a 3.54 ERA in 20 starts and pitched a no-hitter. He missed more than two months with a lat strain, however, and turns 35 in April. He’ll contend with a qualifying offer if he reaches the open market, but interest in a new deal with Seattle is mutual. Iwakuma’s market would resemble that of Lackey.

26. Colby Rasmus – Padres. Three years, $39MM. Rasmus, a 29-year-old former first-round draft pick, hit a career-high 25 home runs for the Astros this year. He added four more in nine postseason games. Rasmus can play all three outfield positions, too. One of four 2005 first-round draft picks on this list, Rasmus had trouble meshing with the Cardinals and Blue Jays clubhouses but found comfort in Houston. The Astros made him a qualifying offer, however, and the prospect of forfeiting a draft pick will give some teams pause.

27. Denard Span – Cubs. Three years, $39MM. Span, 32 in February, hit .292/.345/.404 in his three seasons with the Nationals. His center field defense rated as below average for the last two years, however. Span had hip surgery on September 1st and will spend most of the offseason recovering, potentially depressing his price tag. To the great benefit of his market, Span did not receive a qualifying offer from the Nationals. The Cubs are a good fit for Span, though it’s easier to picture a team like the Mariners coming into play since they have the first unprotected pick in the draft.

28. Brett Anderson – Dodgers. Three years, $39MM. Anderson is another interesting southpaw, although his market will be hampered by a qualifying offer from the Dodgers. Anderson is young for a free agent, as he doesn’t turn 28 until February. He doesn’t miss a ton of bats, but he led all qualified starters with a 66.3% groundball rate this year. He set a career high with 180 1/3 regular season innings with the Dodgers, after injuries limited him to 206 1/3 over the previous four seasons. Anderson’s injury history likely takes a four-year deal off the table unless the average annual value is greatly reduced. The Dodgers may retain him, especially since his leverage is reduced by their qualifying offer. Otherwise his market should resemble that of Kazmir.

29. Marco Estrada – Athletics. Three years, $30MM. Estrada looked like a non-tender candidate for the Brewers a year ago, who traded him to the Blue Jays for Adam Lind. He didn’t even join Toronto’s rotation until May 5th, but he went on to post a 3.28 ERA in 28 starts. He also raised his profile with two excellent postseason starts in three tries. The 32-year-old soft-tosser received a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays — an offer of a one-year, $15.8MM contract upon which he must decide in the next seven days. Estrada has earned $10MM in his career, so accepting the offer has to be a serious consideration. Still, Estrada would surely prefer the security of a multiyear deal, and has a good chance of finding a three-year contract even with the draft pick cost. The qualifying offer gives the Blue Jays leverage over the next week, so it’s possible he’ll strike a multiyear deal with them to remain in Toronto.

30. J.A. Happ – Royals. Three years, $30MM. Happ, a 33-year-old southpaw, posted a 4.64 ERA in 108 2/3 innings for the Mariners but a 1.85 mark in 63 1/3 for the Pirates. Assuming teams feel some of that success can be replicated outside of Pittsburgh, Happ will be a popular mid-range free agent target, as he’s ineligible for a qualifying offer and probably won’t expect a four-year deal. The Pirates will attempt to retain him, while the Royals, Orioles, Padres, Angels, Giants, Tigers, A’s, Dodgers, and Marlins also make sense.

31. David Freese – White Sox. Three years, $30MM. Freese is a decent third baseman in a market bereft of them. 33 in April, he hit .260/.328/.394 over the last three years and plays average defense. The Halos chose not to risk the one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to Freese. That’s a big plus for his free agency and probably makes a third year possible. He could return to the Angels, while the White Sox and Indians also make sense.

32. Gerardo Parra – Nationals. Three years, $27MM. Parra was a hot commodity on the July trade market after hitting well beyond his norm for 100 games with the Brewers. The Orioles acquired him, and he tanked in the remaining 55 games. Still, Parra doesn’t turn 29 until May, he plays all three outfield positions, and he’s not eligible for a qualifying offer. Parra’s struggles against left-handed pitching prevent him from being a regular, but he’ll be a popular free agent as something between a regular and a fourth outfielder. There’s a Mike Rizzo connection since Parra came up with the D’Backs, while the White Sox, Mets, and Padres could also work.

33. Darren O’Day – Red Sox. Three years, $22.5MM. O’Day may be the best reliever on the free agent market. The sidearmer compiled a 1.92 ERA in 263 innings over four seasons with the Orioles. He has at times struggled with walks and home runs against left-handed hitters, but he doesn’t have to be used as a righty specialist. Though he recently turned 33, a three-year deal is in order. If the Orioles elect not to pay the price, the Red Sox, Tigers, Braves, Diamondbacks, and Mets are just a few potential suitors.

34. Joakim Soria – Tigers. Three years, $18MM. Soria, the former dominant Royals closer, is fully back to form after April 2012 Tommy John surgery. He became the Tigers’ closer after Joe Nathan went down with an elbow injury, and was traded to the Pirates in July. A healthy three-year deal is in order for Soria, who turns 32 in May. His market will be similar to that of O’Day, perhaps with a boost for some teams due to his closing experience.

35. Austin Jackson – Rockies. One year, $12MM. Jackson looked like a potential star after a breakout 2012 season with the Tigers. However, his offense declined and he was traded to the Mariners at the 2014 trade deadline. Seattle sent him to the Cubs this year at the August deadline. Jackson doesn’t turn 29 until February, and he plays a capable center field. There’s a good chance he can still pass as a two-win center fielder. A Boras client, Jackson could attempt to maximize his earnings now on multiyear deal, or rebuild value on a one-year pact. A return to the Cubs makes sense, while the Rockies, Marlins, Nationals, Rangers, Braves, Reds, White Sox, and Indians could also be fits.

36. Tyler Clippard – Braves. Three years, $18MM. Clippard’s strikeout and walk rates moved in the wrong direction this year, but he still compiled a 2.92 ERA in 71 innings for the Athletics and Mets. He’s a two-time All-Star who has succeeded in a setup and occasional closer role since 2009. His history of success should be enough for a three-year deal.

37. Asdrubal Cabrera – White Sox. Two years, $18MM. The Rays signed Cabrera to a one-year, $7.5MM deal in January. His longstanding record as a below-average defensive shortstop held true, but he showed some pop with 15 home runs and overall was a net positive. Some teams might prefer him at second base, where he played for the Nationals last year. The Padres or White Sox could plug him in as a stopgap at either position.

38. Mat Latos – Pirates. One year, $12MM. A few years ago, Latos seemed in line for a monster free agent deal upon hitting the market at age 28. Then bone spurs in his elbow late in 2013 led to surgery, followed by knee surgery prior to 2014 spring training, and then a flexor mass strain in his elbow. His 2014 season debut was pushed to mid-June. He had a stem cell elbow procedure in November 2014, and then the Reds traded him to the Marlins. He battled minor injuries but showed promise in his 16 starts with the Marlins this year and then joined the Dodgers via trade. Latos struggled in six outings for the Dodgers and earned his release, hooking on with the Angels in late September to make a few relief appearances. Latos will probably go for a one-year deal to rebuild value, and the Pirates have a knack for getting pitchers back on track. As one of only a couple of interesting one-year deal arms, Latos should be popular.

39. Doug Fister – Astros. One year, $10MM. Fister is the other popular one-year deal target, as he served as a dependable starting pitcher until this year. With his strikeout and groundball rates declining, and his fastball down to around 86 miles per hour, he doesn’t have the upside of Latos.

40. Mike Pelfrey – Royals. Two years, $15MM. Pelfrey isn’t the most exciting free agent starter, but the righty did make 30 starts for the Twins this year with the game’s eighth best home run prevention rate. Teams like the Royals, Tigers, and Phillies could entertain him for the back end of the rotation.

41. Antonio Bastardo – Mariners. Three years, $15MM. Bastardo profiles as the best lefty reliever on the free agent market after a 2.98 ERA in 57 1/3 innings for the Pirates. The 30-year-old does have control problems, however. The Mariners, Twins, and Cardinals are a few potential matches.

42. Ryan Madson – Twins. Three years, $15MM. Madson, 35, signed a minor league deal with the Royals in January. He hadn’t pitched in the Majors since 2011. With a 2.13 ERA and strong peripherals in 63 1/3 big league innings, Madson proved he’s all the way back as a top setup option. Suitors will prefer a two-year deal due to Madson’s age and history, but a third year might win the bid.

43. Steve Pearce – Rangers. Two years, $14MM. Pearce smashed 21 home runs in 383 plate appearances for the Orioles in 2014, but couldn’t replicate his success in his contract year. He could fill a lefty-mashing left field/first base role for the Rangers.

44. Shawn Kelley – Diamondbacks. Two years, $12MM. Kelley has a shot at a three-year deal, after he posted a 2.45 ERA, 11.1 K/9, and 2.6 BB/9 in 51 1/3 innings for the Padres this year. He’ll be appealing to a long list of teams seeking to augment the bullpen.

45. John Jaso – Orioles. Two years, $12MM. Jaso spent most of the season as the Rays’ designated hitter, and figures to remain in the American League. A wrist injury knocked him out for three months this year. The 32-year-old hit .278/.368/.439 against right-handed pitching over the last three years, but generally shouldn’t face lefties.

46. Chris B. Young – Yankees. Two years, $12MM. Young is a lefty-masher who can play all three outfield positions. If the Yankees don’t bring him back, the Rangers could be a fit.

47. Tony Sipp – Astros. Three years, $12MM. Sipp, one of the top lefty relievers on the market, revived his career by joining the Astros in 2014. He seems inclined to stay in Houston, though he may be popular enough to net a three-year offer.

48. Justin Morneau – Orioles. One year, $8MM. After winning a batting title with the Rockies last year, Morneau played in just 49 games in 2015 due to a strained neck and concussion symptoms. A move back to the American League makes sense.

49. Alexei Ramirez – Padres. One year, $7.5MM. Ramirez’s $10MM option was a borderline call for the White Sox, but they ultimately chose the $1MM buyout. The 34-year-old struggled mightily in the season’s first three months, but hit a respectable .282/.329/.426 in the second half. His defense might be a little below average at this point, but teams seeking a shortstop can’t be too picky.

50. Rich Hill – Phillies. One year, $5MM. Hill, 36 in March, rose from the ashes to twirl four brilliant starts for the Red Sox in September and October. He’s a southpaw with a huge curveball and career-long control issues. His last run of success as a starter came in 2007, but I like using the last spot on this list for a wild card.

Honorable mentions: Mark Buehrle, Bartolo Colon, Nori Aoki, Rajai Davis, Alejandro De Aza, Jimmy Rollins, Mike Napoli, Marlon Byrd, Chase Utley, David Murphy, Tim Lincecum, Mark Lowe, Alex Rios, Chris Young

Cuban righty Yaisel Sierra has been left off the top 50 list since the timing of his free agency remains an unknown.

MLB Trade Rumors Turns 10

By Tim Dierkes | November 4, 2015 at 10:35am CDT

Back in June 2005, I worked at a search engine marketing company in Chicago. It was about the coolest job a kid fresh out of college could hope to have. I remember being impressed that it was normal to be on the Internet all day at work, and that people communicated with each other using AOL Instant Messenger. I had been at the company for about a year and it was a fun and interesting job. I became friends with a consultant named Jeff, and naturally we chatted about baseball. I had a lot of ideas, and he suggested I start a blog. I barely knew what that was, but he had one.

So I fired up a free blog using Blogger. The next day, I registered my own domain, rotoauthority.com, and soon moved to a more serious platform, TypePad. RotoAuthority would be where I would write a bunch of fantasy baseball posts. I was all over the forums promoting my blog, and I remember my future wife waiting patiently as I chalked the name of it all over the quad at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign when we visited our alma mater. I also had the novel idea of mailing out packages of Big League Chew to baseball reporters I liked, to get RotoAuthority on their radar. I sent out a bunch of them, to Peter Gammons, Jerry Crasnick, Rob Neyer, and the like. Years later, Rob told me he chewed the gum immediately.

I mentioned to Jeff that I was thinking about naming my new company The Roto Authority, and he told me I should think bigger, I may want to start a second site at some point. The 2005 MLB season was over, and I found myself writing a bunch of stuff on RotoAuthority that had only a loose connection to fantasy baseball, including my first-ever Top 50 Free Agents list.

I still thought RotoAuthority was my meal ticket to becoming self-employed, as I used it as a vehicle to sell self-created projection spreadsheets for $9.99. I was also making a few bucks writing the Waiver Wired column for RotoWorld. Nonetheless, I was drawn to all the rumors and deals of the 2005-06 MLB offseason, and wanted to write about Bobby Abreu, Billy Wagner, and Juan Pierre without the constraints of fantasy baseball. So, so many posts about Juan Pierre. So, ten years ago on this date, I registered a new site, mlbtraderumors.com, and wrote this post about the Yankees potentially pursuing Torii Hunter. The site’s design looked like this. Raise your hand if you remember it!

MLB Trade Rumors quickly passed up RotoAuthority in traffic, and started to take up more of my time. During busy times like the July trade deadline or the Winter Meetings, our posts went viral in an old school way, with links on forums and perhaps carrier pigeons. It certainly wasn’t succeeding because of my journalistic integrity. In the early years of MLBTR I was completely naive about the hard work and years of trust-building that goes into getting most baseball scoops. So, if someone emailed about having the same barber as Octavio Dotel and therefore knowing where he might sign, I believed it and printed it.

A major turning point came during the 2007 Winter Meetings. Someone pretended to be a Mets beat reporter (one I knew of but had not interacted with) and sent me a whopper of a trade rumor. He was happy to let me write an exclusive post on MLBTR about the potential three-team deal sending Johan Santana and Bobby Crosby to the Mets, Jose Reyes and Kevin Mulvey to the A’s, and Dan Haren to the Twins. I was not present at those Winter Meetings, but this bogus rumor spread like wildfire after I posted it, and of course was shot down.

Shot down is an understatement, actually. Here are the choice quotes from A’s GM Billy Beane:

“There’s a better chance of me breeding unicorns than there is of that deal happening.” – ESPN

“It’s ridiculous. All-time most ridiculous. Of all the trade rumors the whole time I’ve been coming here, because of the genesis and how quickly it went around, that was the finest, or the worst, whatever you like.” – San Francisco Chronicle

“I’m on the bike, and (Zaidi) is on the treadmill, and he figures out a way to get on the Internet, and he says, ’Hey look at this.’ Of all the trade rumors in all my career, that one’s the furthest from the truth.” – Contra Costa Times

I was mortified at what I’d done and that it was on Beane’s radar to that degree. I finally realized that I had to take sourcing much more seriously, and also stop worrying about trying to break stories.

Soon after, I quit my job to focus on MLBTR full-time. A parade of great writers and friends joined me on our team and helped make the site better each year. The core of what we do hasn’t really changed since 2008. We collect, organize, and analyze everything related to MLB transactions in a timely manner, filtering out anything lacking in credibility. The format and means of sharing the information have changed, but the idea remains the same.

Thank you for indulging my trip down memory lane. I am forever grateful for the opportunity to run MLBTR for a living, and I don’t intend to stop anytime soon. I would like to express my gratitude to our many contributors over the years, and to the journalists on the beat. And of course, thanks to our readers, whether you were here for the black background days or you just discovered the site this week. Here’s to the next ten years!

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | October 30, 2015 at 11:30pm CDT

The Cubs’ primary offseason goal is to add an impact starting pitcher. They will also address center field, consider trades for surplus position players, and explore an extension for Jake Arrieta.

Guaranteed Contracts

Jon Lester, SP: $125MM through 2020; mutual option for 2021
Starlin Castro, 2B/SS: $38MM through 2019; club option for 2020
Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $32MM through 2019; club options for 2020 and 2021
Miguel Montero, C: $28MM through 2017
Jorge Soler, RF: $18MM through 2020; may opt into arbitration after 2017
Jason Hammel, SP: $11MM through 2016; club option for 2017 that may become void based on ’16 performance
David Ross, C: $2.25MM through 2016

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections by MLB Trade Rumors)

Clayton Richard (5.154) – $1.1MM
Chris Coghlan (5.148) – $3.9MM
Jonathan Herrera (5.101) – $1.1MM
Travis Wood (5.004) – $6.4MM
Pedro Strop (4.156) – $4.7MM
Jake Arrieta (4.145) – $10.6MM
Taylor Teagarden (4.093) –
Hector Rondon (3.000) – $3.6MM
Justin Grimm (2.170) – $1.0MM
Non-tender candidates: Herrera, Teagarden

Contract Options

None

Free Agents

Dexter Fowler, Trevor Cahill, Dan Haren, Tommy Hunter, Jason Motte, Fernando Rodney, Chris Denorfia, Austin Jackson

Expectations have been raised for the 2016 Cubs, after the club reached the NLCS for the first time in 12 years. The team’s position player core has the potential to be in place for at least five more years. Jorge Soler is under team control through 2020, while Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, Addison Russell, Kyle Schwarber, and Javier Baez are under control through 2021. At 26 years old, Rizzo is the elder statesman of the group. Bryant, Russell, Schwarber, and Baez are years from arbitration, and Soler ($3MM) and Rizzo ($5MM) are also very cheap. Theo Epstein and company have assembled something special and have lined the players up for sustained success.

Bryant’s rookie season defense suggests he’ll remain mostly at third base next year, although manager Joe Maddon dabbled with him at each outfield position and may continue to do so. Rizzo is locked in at first base. The veteran tandem of Montero and Ross will return at catcher.

The Cubs have a middle infield surplus. Russell will remain the starting shortstop, so the question is what to do with Baez and Castro. Both players were acquired under the Jim Hendry front office, though Epstein’s group brokered the extension with Castro in the summer of 2012. Castro’s 2015 season was near replacement level, and he lost the starting shortstop job to Russell in August. Partially because of an injury to Soler that forced Chris Coghlan back to the outfield, Castro became the starting second baseman in September and had a blistering month. He continued in that role throughout the playoffs.

Castro won’t turn 26 until March, and he’s an enigma. He tallied 529 hits from age 20-22, joining Alex Rodriguez as the only middle infielders to accomplish that feat in baseball history. Since then he’s had replacement level seasons in 2013 and ’15, sandwiching a solid 2014. The Cubs prefer Russell and Baez over Castro as defensive shortstops, so it’s unclear whether another team would install Castro at short. He did show pretty well at second base late in the year.

If Castro became a free agent right now and demanded a four-year deal with a club option, I think he could get $38MM or a bit more. So perhaps the Cubs could move him without eating salary, though they wouldn’t get a player back with much surplus value. The Mets, Padres, White Sox, and Yankees could be potential trade partners for the Cubs, who would presumably look to add starting pitching. Most of those teams have pitching depth, and the Cubs could look to add to their bullpen as well.

Baez, who turns 23 in December and comes with six years of control, is also a trade candidate. He was able to cut his strikeout rate a bit in Triple-A this year, while dealing with the tragic passing of his sister as well as a broken finger. Baez’s star potential gives him much more trade value than Castro, and it would be risky for the Cubs to move him. The flip side of that is that making him available opens the door to controllable upper-tier arms like Carlos Carrasco and Tyson Ross, pitchers the Cubs pursued in July. All in all, Castro is more likely to be dealt than Baez this winter, yet there is a reasonable chance the club enters the season with both and delays the trade decision. Baez could serve as the team’s backup infielder to start the season.

Schwarber’s bat is well ahead of his glove. He joined the Cubs in mid-June and clubbed 21 home runs in 304 plate appearances, including his postseason onslaught. The plan remains the same for 2016: bring him along as a catcher when possible, while keeping his bat in the lineup as the left fielder. Trading Schwarber at this point in his career would be an extremely bold move that I don’t anticipate the Cubs making. Trading Chris Coghlan is a safer alternative. He and Schwarber both bat left-handed, so they can’t form a left field platoon. Coghlan remains affordable in his final year of team control, and he hit .264/.355/.476 against right-handed pitching this year. I’m reminded of Seth Smith, who was traded to the Padres for Luke Gregerson two years ago. The Angels, Astros, Giants, Orioles, Padres, Royals, and White Sox could be potential trade partners for Coghlan.

Though he’s cut from the same cloth as Baez, the Cubs could consider trading Soler for controllable pitching. Soler posted a replacement level rookie season, with poor defense and a 30% strikeout rate. His 112 total games played marked a pro career high. Still, Soler flashed All-Star potential in the playoffs. Like Baez, the safe move here is to retain Soler and see what he becomes.

With Schwarber and Soler penciled in at the outfield corners, center field is the Cubs’ clearest position of need. Coming off the healthiest season of his career, Dexter Fowler is due a qualifying offer and perhaps a four-year contract in the $60MM range. While the Cubs have the capacity to sign him, they may acknowledge that a four-year deal wouldn’t provide good value. If Denard Span does not receive a qualifying offer and the Cubs aren’t scared off by his September hip surgery, he could be a cheaper replacement on a shorter term. The Cubs have 2012 first-rounder Albert Almora working his way up the minor leagues, so a shorter-term investment makes sense. Bringing Austin Jackson back is an option, or the Cubs could look into a trade for the Yankees’ Brett Gardner. Epstein has named outfield defense as an area of improvement, which could mean exploring trades for players like Leonys Martin or Juan Lagares.

Despite some decisions to be made on the position player side, the Cubs’ offseason focus will be on their rotation. The group is currently fronted by Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester. After the season, Epstein spoke of his desire to add “impact pitching,” as well as big league depth. He seems open to the “necessary evil” of free agency, and this year’s class is stacked with David Price, Zack Greinke, Johnny Cueto, and Jordan Zimmermann. Jeff Samardzija could also be considered a potential impact arm. Then there’s John Lackey, who Epstein signed as Red Sox GM six years ago. Greinke, Zimmermann, Samardzija, and Lackey would likely require the Cubs to forfeit their first-round draft pick. The Cubs could make trade attempts for Carrasco, Ross, Jose Quintana, Sonny Gray, Matt Harvey, or Stephen Strasburg, though some of them will be off-limits and they come with varying amounts of team control. In the end, expect the Cubs to come away with someone they’re comfortable starting in the first three games of a playoff series.

Hammel and Hendricks can capably fill out the back of the Cubs’ rotation. Hendricks, 26 in December, won’t reach arbitration until after the 2017 season, and the Cubs could include him as part of a trade for a better pitcher like Ross. Epstein’s mention of depth is important, as the club avoided major injuries in 2015. They need to safeguard against possible injuries in 2016, especially with ace Jake Arrieta reaching 248 2/3 frames. That means starting the year with at least six capable options. Travis Wood could be stretched out if needed, but the Cubs should probably add two starters.

The Cubs assembled an interesting collection of relievers by the time the playoffs started, with a surprisingly heavy reliance on failed starters Wood, Trevor Cahill, and Clayton Richard along with Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, and Justin Grimm. Wood’s past as a starter will drive his arbitration price up to more than you’d like to pay, but he posted a 2.95 ERA and 11.0 K/9 in regular season relief and should be retained. It’s unclear whether Cahill, 28 in March, will embrace a relief role as a free agent. He was very good in that role for 22 1/3 innings after joining the Cubs, and the team should find a way to bring him back.

Perhaps in the new year, the Cubs will explore an extension for Arrieta. A big factor is who they are able to acquire – if it’s David Price on a seven-year deal, the Cubs would seem unlikely to make Arrieta their third long-term $25MM+ pitcher. If it’s two years of Tyson Ross, maybe there’s room for a huge deal for Arrieta. We project Arrieta to make a big leap to a $10.6MM salary in arbitration for 2016, and then he’d be due another raise for 2017. Signing him now could allow the Cubs to temper those two arbitration salaries, but it would be a question of how many years the pitcher would need on top. Arrieta’s projected free agency begins with his age 32 season, and Scott Boras is his agent. Zack Greinke’s new deal will also begin with his age 32 season. Whatever Greinke gets for his free agent years, Boras will expect the same. That could be $150MM over five years, $160MM over six, or something else, but we should know by January. The Cubs have to ask the hard question of whether giving Arrieta ace money through age 36 or 37 is prudent, when they already control his age 30 and 31 seasons.

If the Cubs are already looking at $185MM or so over seven years to lock Arrieta up in January 2016, how much higher would the price be in January 2017? Can the Cubs wait this year out to see how Arrieta’s arm holds up after all the added innings, or will the window to extend him be mostly closed by that point? If a long-term deal can’t be reached, the Cubs could at least gain cost certainty by signing Arrieta to a two-year deal.

In 2015, Joe Maddon’s Cubs got close enough to taste their first World Series in 70 years before running into the Mets buzzsaw in the NLCS. The Cubs were playing with house money with a lot of fans this year, as many perceived this club to be a year early. Now, the team will hike ticket prices and add to the payroll to assemble a playoff-caliber rotation to complement their exciting young position players.

Free Agent Profile: Matt Wieters

By Tim Dierkes | October 29, 2015 at 11:45pm CDT

Once the game’s most-hyped prospect, switch-hitting catcher Matt Wieters has put in six years of Major League service with the Orioles. After five-plus years as a very good, durable backstop, Wieters missed a year due to Tommy John surgery and played in 75 games this season.

Strengths/Pros

Wieters is an above average hitter for a catcher. In 2015, the average catcher hit .238/.302/.376 with a Weighted Runs Created Plus of 85. Wieters hit .267/.319/.422 with a wRC+ of 100. He displayed a league average bat, even though catchers generally hit significantly worse. He has shown good pop, leading all catchers with 67 home runs from 2011-13. Wieters made the All-Star team twice in that span, and again in 2014 after a 26-game hot start to that season.

Defensively, Wieters has been among the game’s best at preventing stolen bases. The stat Stolen Base Runs Saved credits catchers for throwing out runners and preventing them from attempting to steal in the first place, and Wieters led all of baseball from 2011-13. The simpler version of this is caught stealing percentage, and Wieters was among the top four qualified catchers in each of 2011-13 seasons. Wieters has also been one of baseball’s best at blocking pitches. He won Gold Glove awards in 2011 and ’12.

As with Justin Upton, it feels like Wieters may not have reached his ceiling. The Orioles drafted Wieters fifth overall in 2007, and his 2009 big league debut was highly anticipated. In 2008, Baseball America wrote that Wieters had “the makings of a legitimate star,” a switch-hitter with plus bat speed, good plate discipline and pitch recognition, and excellent defense including plus-plus arm strength. He doesn’t turn 30 until May, and is easily the best free agent catcher.

Weaknesses/Cons

From 2011-13, Wieters caught 3,539 2/3 innings, the most in baseball. The ability to catch more than 140 games per season would be considered a huge positive, but as Wieters heads into free agency, we have to question how many innings behind the plate he can handle for the next several years. Wieters’ 2014 season ended on May 10th with elbow soreness, and he had Tommy John surgery in June of that year. Though he was at one point on track to be ready for Opening Day, Wieters experienced elbow tendinitis in March and started the year on the DL. His season debut came on June 5th.

From the day of Wieters’ season debut, he started at catcher for 55 of the team’s 109 games. He battled a hamstring strain in August and a wrist injury in September. Still, there was no point this season where Wieters was used like a regular catcher by the Orioles. As Mark Brown of Camden Chat pointed out, he only caught on consecutive days four times this year. He’s not a good enough hitter for significant time at DH or first base to be appealing as part of a long-term contract, as it was with Brian McCann. In a given year, anywhere from 11-18 catchers get at least 900 innings behind the dish, and a team giving a multiyear pact to Wieters will need confidence he can do that.

Exploring the question of Wieters’ ability to stay behind the plate long-term, one must consider his massive size. He is literally the only regular catcher in baseball history who is 6’5″ and 230 pounds. Dropping the weight requirement to 220 gives a list of five total catchers (including Wieters himself). One of those is Joe Mauer, who was done catching by age 31 due to a lengthy history of concussions as well as back and leg injuries.

Looking at Wieters’ pitch framing data at StatCorner, he’s below average at getting pitches outside of the zone called strikes for his pitchers. The stat is called oStr%, and Wieters was the worst in baseball this year among those with a sample of 4,000 or more pitches. He was below average at this key framing skill from 2012-14 as well. Also, it’s unclear whether Wieters’ once-vaunted arm is as effective at preventing stolen bases. He threw out 30.8% of attempted thieves this year, which would have ranked eighth among qualifiers.

I believe Wieters will receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Orioles, meaning signing him would require a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick. This could present an issue for a team like the Mariners, who probably wouldn’t want to give Wieters a decent-sized contract and also forfeit the 11th overall draft pick.

Personal

Wieters was born in Charleston, South Carolina and resides in Sarasota, Florida with his wife and son in the offseason. According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, Matt met his wife while attending Georgia Tech, and they also have a house in Atlanta. Will Graves of the Associated Press called him a “stoic cornerstone” for the Orioles in 2013, and more recently Connolly wrote, “Wieters’ leadership, steady influence and professionalism has been immeasurable.” Matt’s father, Richard, was a minor league pitcher for the Braves and White Sox, and as you’d expect, that sparked an interest in the game for Matt. He remained humble despite huge hype coming out of college and in his minor league career.

Market

Interest in Wieters will vary based on his contract demands and whether he receives a qualifying offer. I feel making a qualifying offer is a relatively easy “yes” for the Orioles, because he’d be worth $15.8MM on a one-year deal if he accepts. But why would a 29-year-old catcher, the best free agent at his position, decline his first chance at an open-market multiyear deal without fully exploring the market first? If all the multiyear offers are unacceptable, Wieters would probably be able to find a one-year deal worth close to $15.8MM in February or March. In March 2014, Wieters’ agent, Scott Boras, told ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick in reference to Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, “Everybody talks about these players turning down these [one-year] qualifying offers like they’re village idiots. The reason is, they don’t want to be in the same position again next year. If I’m a good player, I’m going to take the prospect of free agency.”

If Wieters becomes a one-year deal guy late in the offseason, opportunistic teams will swoop in, and the door could re-open to the Orioles. Before then, Boras needs to find a team that loves Wieters’ pedigree, and feels he can be a bargain on a multiyear deal if an offseason of normal rest brings back the durability he once had. Clubs that could enter the market for a starting catcher include the Rangers, Nationals, Braves, White Sox, Mariners, Twins, Rockies, Angels, and Astros. Of those nine teams, the Braves, White Sox, and Rockies have protected first round picks. The White Sox have not historically been involved with a lot of Scott Boras’ free agents, but we can’t rule them out. The Braves are a legitimate match. Wieters grew up rooting for the Braves, his father pitched in their minor league system, and he starred at Georgia Tech. Plus, former Oriole mainstay Nick Markakis joined the Braves last winter, and the team appears to have soured on young catcher Christian Bethancourt. The Rockies have Nick Hundley in place for 2016, but could see Wieters as a long-term solution behind the plate.

The Nationals are an under-the-radar fit. They were not happy with Wilson Ramos this year, according to MLB.com’s Bill Ladson, and the team’s management has a well-known strong relationship with Boras. Meanwhile, Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says the Rangers could take a look at Wieters, but only if he does not receive a qualifying offer. Surely Boras would appreciate the Orioles choosing not to make a qualifying offer, which would be extremely risk-averse. The O’s didn’t make a qualifying offer to Markakis last winter, which Mark Brown of Camden Chat theorized may have been a gesture of loyalty from owner Peter Angelos.

Wieters has little competition on the free agent market, but he will be affected by the availability of Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy. Any of the above teams could make a deal for Lucroy and drop out of the Wieters market.

Expected Contract

I can picture Boras coming out of the gates seeking Russell Martin/Brian McCann money for Wieters, meaning five years and $82-85MM. I don’t think he’ll get there, but I’m predicting a four-year, $64MM deal, even with a qualifying offer.

Seeking Android App Testers

By Tim Dierkes | October 26, 2015 at 1:26pm CDT

MLBTR is seeking people to test out our Android app, Trade Rumors. This free app has been available in the Play Store for a year now, but our upcoming release adds the ability to read and leave comments on the posts. We’re looking for people specifically to test the commenting feature. Also, it might be best if you’ve already been using the app for a while.

If you’d like to help out and test the new commenting feature within the app, please email us at mlbtrandroid@gmail.com.

Free Agent Profile: Justin Upton

By Tim Dierkes | October 26, 2015 at 12:30pm CDT

Justin Upton, baseball’s first overall draft pick a decade ago, reaches free agency at age 28 with a solid track record of hitting for power.

Strengths/Pros

Upton’s pedigree is still an important selling point, because it implies he’s yet to reach his ceiling. According to Baseball America, Upton was on scouts’ radars when he was 14 years old. After he was drafted out of high school by the Diamondbacks in ’05, BA wrote that he had “unbelievable tools” and felt that the term “five-tool prospect” sold him short. Upton was the consensus pick for first overall, after older brother B.J. (now known as Melvin) went second overall to the Rays in 2002. Justin was seen as a patient, powerful hitter, with great bat speed, plus power potential, big-time speed, and a cannon for an arm.

Ten years later, Upton has 190 home runs under his belt through age 27. Of the 30 non-active players who accomplished that feat, 17 are in the Hall of Fame. Upton has 82 home runs over the last three seasons, 17th in baseball. Among those with 1500 plate appearances in that time, Upton ranks 22nd in slugging and 18th in ISO. Power is Upton’s main calling card, and at age 28, there may be more to come. Upton is also an asset on the basepaths, as his baserunning runs above average marks can attest.

I wouldn’t call Upton one of the best players in baseball, but he is one of the game’s better outfielders. Over the last three years, his 10.6 wins above replacement ranks 18th among outfielders. He was an All-Star in 2009, ’11, and ’15, finishing fourth in the MVP voting in ’11. Upton has been durable, averaging 152 games played over the last five seasons.

As we’ve mentioned, Upton will play most of next season at age 28. The only other top 30 free agent position players who will play next year in their 20s are Jason Heyward and Colby Rasmus. Upton’s age leaves room for upside and should result in his team getting more prime years.

Weaknesses/Cons

Let’s be honest: Upton hasn’t lived up to the mammoth expectations placed on him. He only reached 30 home runs once in his eight seasons, and that was four years ago. Power may be Upton’s strength, but fellow free agent Chris Davis has shown much more. Upton’s ability to get on base is nothing special, and one can name at least 20 hitters who have been better overall over the last three years. You can find at least 40 hitters who were better this year. Upside is nice, but if this is all Upton is, he’s a good player and not a great one.

Strikeouts are part of Upton’s game. He has whiffed in 25.8% of his plate appearances since 2013; only seven qualified hitters struck out more often. Oddly enough, all of them are either free agents or non-tender candidates.

Upton’s left field defense grades out as roughly average. Advanced metrics show he was a touch above average this year, and a touch below last year. I don’t consider it a strength or a weakness, but I felt his defense warranted mention.

Upton is expected to receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Padres, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture. This is not the case for one of his main market competitors, Yoenis Cespedes.

Personal

Upton was born in Norfolk, Virginia and resides in Scottsdale, Arizona with his wife. Justin grew up in a baseball family. His father Manny scouted for the Royals and White Sox, and older brother Melvin was drafted second overall in ’02. Justin battled an immaturity label early in his career, as outlined in this 2012 ESPN article by Robert Sanchez. It should be noted that he made his MLB debut at age 19. Upton signed a six-year, $51.25MM extension with the Diamondbacks in March 2010, but was traded to the Braves in January 2013. He spent 2013 and ’14 roaming the outfield alongside his brother Melvin, who had signed with Atlanta a few months prior. Then Justin was traded to the Padres in December 2014, and Melvin rejoined him after a separate deal in April.

Market

Upton should have plenty of suitors this winter, though he does not seem likely to re-sign with the Padres. The Orioles don’t have much at the outfield corners, and could have money to spend if they lose Chris Davis. The Yankees could be a suitor if they trade Brett Gardner. The Rangers could be a potential match if they have an appetite for another large contract. The White Sox have a need in the outfield, but have never spent even $70MM on a player. The Mariners could have a spot for Upton, but he rejected a trade to Seattle in 2013. I wouldn’t rule them out, however, in the case Upton has decided the Mariners are closer to contention now than they were two years ago. I’ve heard plenty of speculation that the Giants make a good fit for Upton, though it’s possible they’ll put their resources toward pitching.

Nationals GM Mike Rizzo was the scouting director when the Diamondbacks drafted Upton first overall, but a reunion would require moving Jayson Werth to right field and Bryce Harper to center. It’s unclear whether they’d be interested in doing so. The Dodgers have almost $40MM tied up in Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier next year. Trading one of them and signing Upton (not necessarily in that order) is plausible.

The Tigers could have a spot for Upton, but they seem likely to focus on starting pitching. Same goes for the Red Sox, who would also have to move an outfielder like Jackie Bradley to make room. The Angels, Astros, and Blue Jays could seek a left field upgrade this winter, but may prefer a left-handed hitter. The Jays, as well as the Indians, were on Upton’s four-team no-trade list last winter. The Indians would likely face budget restraints with Upton, and may not want to bring him on as a right fielder anyway.

The Royals could have an opening in left field if Alex Gordon departs, but they’ve never committed more than $55MM to a player. The Cardinals have plenty of in-house replacements if Jason Heyward departs. The Mets are a tough match even if Cespedes leaves, with Curtis Granderson and Michael Conforto at the corners. The Cubs also have more of a need at center field. The Phillies have little in place at the outfield corners and could afford Upton, but it would be odd for a rebuilding club and a tough sell for the player.

Expected Contract

Given his age, an opt-out clause should be a consideration for Upton. Agent Larry Reynolds would do well to get his client another crack at free agency at age 30 or 31, as no one would be surprised if Upton takes his game to another level and hits 40 home runs at some point. If an opt-out clause is obtained by Reynolds, I’d expect the total dollars to be reduced as a concession.

Coming off an inferior season to Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes, I’d expect Upton to receive a slightly lower average annual value. Plus, Upton’s age gives him a chance at a seventh year, which may also bring down the AAV. Something in the $20-22MM range could work. The end result might put all three players at a similar grand total. I’m putting Upton down for a seven-year, $147MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Try The Free MLBTR Newsletter

By Tim Dierkes | October 22, 2015 at 11:47am CDT

It’s time to give the free MLBTR email Newsletter a try! We’ll deliver an exclusive article to your inbox every week – no strings attached! I’ll be weighing in on deals, rumors, and all the hot stove-related topics MLBTR has been known for since I launched the site a decade ago. These articles will be exclusive to MLBTR Newsletter subscribers and will not appear on the website. I may also provide occasional updates on what’s next for MLBTR. It’s completely free.

I’ll be honored if you give us your email address and join the thousands of MLBTR readers already enjoying the Newsletter. We will never sell your email address or market anything to the mailing list, and you can unsubscribe easily. My newest post, coming this afternoon, compares and contrasts free agent starters Jeff Samardzija, Wei-Yin Chen, and Mike Leake. Sign up now! Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link.

Free Agent Profile: Chris Davis

By Tim Dierkes | October 21, 2015 at 11:49pm CDT

Two-time home run king Chris Davis hits the free agent market for the first time, prior to his 30th birthday.

Strengths/Pros

Davis is the most prolific home run hitter in the game. He led the Majors with 47 home runs this year, and also topped all hitters with 53 in 2013. He has blasted 159 home runs since becoming a regular for the Orioles in 2012, most in baseball. Looking at isolated power, Davis is second only to Bryce Harper this year and second only to Giancarlo Stanton among qualified hitters since 2012. A left-handed hitter, Davis’ power carries over against same-side pitching. From 2012-15, no left-handed hitter with at least 600 plate appearances against southpaws can boast of a higher isolated slugging percentage against lefty pitchers. Davis’ power also extends to all fields, with some of the game’s best ISO figures on balls hit to center field and the opposite field.

Davis is a bona fide middle of the order monster in his prime. Among free agents, only Yoenis Cespedes can compete with his power, but Cespedes has a less impressive track record as a hitter. Davis is also selective at the plate, with a 12.5% walk rate that ranked 13th in baseball this year.

Davis is generally regarded as a solid defensive first baseman. He was above average in the SABR Defensive Index this year and in UZR the last two years. He also has a touch of versatility, in that he logged 253 1/3 innings in right field this year and 149 1/3 at third base in 2014.

Age is on Davis’ side, as he doesn’t turn 30 until March and is five months younger than Cespedes. Davis has a good health record, as he hasn’t missed more than a week due to injury since missing 12 games with an oblique strain in early 2014. He played in 160 games in each of the 2013 and ’15 seasons.

Weaknesses/Cons

All that power comes with tons of strikeouts, as you might expect. Davis topped all of MLB with a 31.0% strikeout rate in 2015, and was also the game’s strikeout king in 2014 at 33.0%. Strikeouts affect a player’s batting average, and Davis is hitting .256 since 2012. Among those with at least 500 games played and 100 home runs since 2012, Davis’ batting average ranks 16th out of 19 players. So sure, power is a tradeoff, but Edwin Encarnacion and David Ortiz have much higher batting averages (and hence, OBPs) in that time.

With Davis, the biggest elephant in the room is his abysmal 2014 campaign, in which he hit .196/.300/.404 in 525 plate appearances before his season ended with a suspension for his use of Adderall, for which he did not have a therapeutic use exemption. Davis, who was initially diagnosed with Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder in 2008, reportedly had an exemption for Adderall prior to the 2012 season. Eduardo A. Encina’s report for the Baltimore Sun from last December says it is believed Davis did not have an exemption for 2012 or 2013, years in which he played well. So at the least, Davis’ struggles in 2014 can’t be chalked up to ADHD medication, and he’s facing an 80-game suspension if he gets popped again. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported in February that Davis received an exemption for a different form of stimulant medicine, Vyvanse, for 2015.

Davis suffered an oblique strain in late April of 2014, which could perhaps be offered as a partial explanation for his struggles that year. Otherwise, it’s difficult to say why his batting average on balls in play dropped all the way down to .242 that year. The question a suitor will need to try to answer before locking Davis up is, “Will that happen again? If so, how soon?” Looking at some potential comparables, I find more good than bad, such as Carlos Delgado, David Ortiz, and even Jason Giambi. It is possible for Davis to be a good investment over his age 30-35 seasons.

Davis will be subject to a qualifying offer, so signing him will require draft pick forfeiture.

Personal

Davis was born in Longview, Texas, and resides in Dallas with his wife and daughter in the offseason. Chris’ nickname is Crush, a play on Kevin Costner’s character Crash Davis in Bull Durham. ESPN’s Eddie Matz profiled Davis in 2013, revealing a devout southern Baptist with a goofy sense of humor and an affinity for pumping iron. The article says Davis recommitted to his faith at a down point in his career, after the 2010 season. After failing to make the Rangers out of Spring Training, Davis told his fiancée he would go to seminary and become a minister or youth pastor if Texas didn’t promote or trade him that year. Davis did get the call, however, and was later traded to the Orioles with Tommy Hunter for Koji Uehara.

Market

The Orioles have expressed a desire to re-sign Davis, but I believe they’ll be outbid. The Astros, Mariners, and Padres are a few speculative fits. There are scenarios where the Angels, Marlins, or Giants could make a play. A half-dozen additional teams could be added if you’re willing to stretch. Still, first base doesn’t seem to be an in-demand position this winter, which goes hand-in-hand with the free agent market presenting few interesting alternatives at the position. Davis’ competition might be more with Cespedes, at the top end of the big bat market.

Expected Contract

Though no established position player received a six-year contract last winter, two non-superstars received seven-year deals the previous winter: Jacoby Ellsbury and Shin-Soo Choo. Both outfielders are represented by Scott Boras, as is Davis. Like Davis, Ellsbury and Choo had off-years on their resumes and still reached seven years in free agency. With Davis, I think it’s a matter of six or seven years. It’s a close call, but one reason I lean toward six is slugging first base types are generally not thought to age well. I’m pegging Davis for a six-year, $144MM deal.

2015-16 MLB Free Agent Tracker Now Available

By Tim Dierkes | October 21, 2015 at 3:35pm CDT

We’ve been obsessing over MLB free agency for nearly a decade here at MLB Trade Rumors, and this offseason is going to be a good one. The market features unprecedented starting pitching, with David Price, Zack Greinke, Jordan Zimmermann, and Johnny Cueto. Sluggers Chris Davis, Yoenis Cespedes, and Justin Upton will be well-compensated, but Jason Heyward might top them all. Everything you need to track all of the signings can be found in MLBTR’s Free Agent Tracker for the 2015-16 offseason.

We’ll be updating the free agent tracker quickly after signings this winter, and you can filter by team, position, signing status, qualifying offer, contract years and amount, and handedness. Here’s the link again; let the roster-building begin!

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