Author: Tim Dierkes

During the month of May, we saw a pair of key players decide to forgo free agency.  Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg, by far the best projected free agent from the 2016-17 class, signed a seven-year, $175MM extension that includes heavy deferrals and two opt-out clauses.  I believe Strasburg left at least $50MM on the table in making the surprising decision to sign.  With Strasburg off the market, we’re unlikely to see any $100MM pitchers this winter after four hurlers reached that mark last offseason.

Francisco Cervelli, projected to be the best catcher on the 2016-17 free agent market, signed a three-year, $31MM extension with the Pirates.  Cervelli may have left $20MM or more on the table in signing his new deal.

So, we’ve lost the #1 and #10 free agents on last month’s power rankings.  Below, I’ve ranked the remaining projected free agents by earning power.  You can view the full list of 2016-17 MLB free agents here.

1.  Yoenis Cespedes.  With 15 home runs in his first 193 plate appearances, Cespedes has a good chance to reach 40 for the first time.  He’s increasingly likely to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM on his contract with the Mets.  The 30-year-old slugger could be the only free agent to reach $100MM this offseason, underlining the lack of relatively young high-end players on the market.

2.  Jose Bautista.  The most noteworthy part of Bautista’s May was his run-in with Rougned Odor‘s fist.  Bautista served a one-game suspension for his role in the ensuing brawl.  At the moment, I’m projecting a four-year deal in the $100MM range for Bautista, who turns 36 in October.

3.  Josh Reddick.  Reddick fractured his left thumb during a headfirst slide on May 19th.  While the injury will not require surgery, he’s expected to be out until late June.  Reddick was swinging a hot bat leading up to the injury.  Assuming he continues to produce upon his return, I don’t see the injury affecting his earning power.  I can see a five-year deal approaching $100MM.

4.  Kenley Jansen.  Not much has changed with Jansen, who has a shot at a five-year deal.  It seems likely that a reliever will end up with the largest pitching contract of the offseason.

5.  Edwin Encarnacion.  Encarnacion recovered from an ugly April to post a solid May.  He could wind up with a three-year deal with a salary in excess of $20MM.

6.  Dexter Fowler.  Fowler continued to rake in the month of May, hitting .295/.403/.476.  He currently ranks third among position players with 3.2 wins above replacement, after Mike Trout and Manny Machado.  I’m projecting a four-year deal in excess of $60MM for Fowler, after he was left with a disappointing one-year deal last winter.

7.  Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman made his Yankees debut on May 9th after serving a 30-day suspension for a domestic violence incident.  He’s looked as dominant as ever, and a large free agent payday is in the offing.  The question is whether Chapman can get a five-year deal, in light of that October incident.

8.  Neil Walker.  Walker posted another solid month for the Mets.  In a thin market, perhaps he could land a Chase Headley contract (four years, $52MM) if he keeps going strong.

9.  Rich Hill.  Hill now has 11 starts under his belt this year with a 2.25 ERA and 10.4 K/9.  The southpaw, who turns 37 next March, has come a long way in the last year.  He appears to have a good chance at a four-win season, which generally seemed impossible for most of the last decade.  Despite Hill’s age, I think a three-year deal in excess of $40MM is within reach.

10.  Mark Trumbo.  After another big power month, Trumbo is now tied for third in the AL with 15 home runs.  If he winds up near 40 home runs this year, a strong three-year deal becomes possible.  However, his value is hurt by his defensive limitations.

Carlos Gomez, who was ranked fifth on this list last month, has dropped out of the top ten.  The hope is that he’ll finally start hitting after serving a May DL stint for bruised ribs.  However, at this point he’s a candidate to take a one-year deal to rebuild value.

Four players were very close to making the list: catchers Matt Wieters and Wilson Ramos, and outfielders Michael Saunders and Ian Desmond.  Each of them appears to be setting up for a three-year deal at this point.  If four years starts to seem likely for any of these players, they’ll have a spot in the top ten.

The first month of the 2016 MLB season is in the books, and we’ve got movement in our 2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings.  These rankings apply to players projected to reach free agency after this season, and the players are ranked based on earning power.  In the middle of April, the Rangers unsurprisingly extended Adrian Beltre, so he’s off the list.  To see the full list of 2016-17 MLB Free Agents, click here.

1.  Stephen Strasburg.  Strasburg was dominant in the season’s first month, carrying over his success from last year.  By measure of wins above replacement, only Clayton Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard have been better.  With a full season of good health, agent Scott Boras could look to push a seven-year deal for Strasburg past $240MM.  An opt-out clause or two will surely figure in as well.  Strasburg doesn’t turn 28 until July.

2.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes jumps up a spot after a huge April.  In addition to seven home runs, he even managed to draw a few extra walks.  A less streaky campaign than 2015, perhaps ending with around 35 home runs again, could net Cespedes the six-year deal that eluded him last winter.  To take a shot at it, he’ll have to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM on his current contract with the Mets.

3.  Jose Bautista.  Bautista continues to do his thing, hitting for power and drawing lots of walks.  Last week, Jon Heyman tweeted that he believes Bautista will take less than his five-year, $150MM asking price but not less than $100MM.  Something a bit north of $100MM on a four-year deal does seem plausible for Bautista, who told Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe last month that he is willing to negotiate in-season with the Blue Jays.

4.  Josh Reddick.  Nothing out of the ordinary from Reddick in April.  As a solid player who doesn’t turn 30 until February, Reddick could be a sneaky candidate for a five-year deal this winter.  He told MLB.com’s Jon Paul Morosi that he’s not aware of any substantive extension talks with the A’s.  In that column, Morosi had some interesting speculation about whether the Cubs could trade for Reddick this summer.

5.  Carlos Gomez.  Gomez is hitting .245/.303/.364 since June of last year, and I’ve dropped him three spots since our last rankings.  The Astros’ center fielder is currently battling rib cage soreness and is trying to avoid the DL.  For the Astros, Gomez just hasn’t looked like the player he was with the Brewers.  Even if he performs to projections from here on out, which is a total unknown, Gomez could be limited to a four-year deal in the range of Alex Gordon‘s $72MM.  He carries further downside risk if this becomes a lost season.

6.  Kenley Jansen.  Business as usual for Jansen, who has allowed one run in his first ten appearances.  If the save opportunities continue coming as they did in April, perhaps the Dodgers’ closer can top his career high of 44 saves.  It would be interesting to see a reliever earn the second-largest pitching contract of the offseason.  Jansen could make that happen with a precedent-shattering five-year deal.

7.  Edwin Encarnacion.  Like last year, it was a rough April for Encarnacion.  The Blue Jays’ designated hitter has shown many times he’s capable of going on a tear.  Still, my confidence in a four-year deal for Encarnacion is wavering a bit.  He’ll turn 34 in January.

8.  Aroldis Chapman.  Chapman’s 30-game suspension for a domestic violence incident ends a week from today, and he’ll presumably jump right into the Yankees’ closer role.  He’s been working out at the Yankees’ minor league complex, taking some time last week to become a U.S. citizen.  I expect Jansen to do better than Chapman in free agency, but Chapman should still land a huge contract if he stays incident-free until free agency.

9.  Francisco Cervelli.  Cervelli makes his first appearance in our top ten.  The Pirates’ backstop has stepped it up a notch after a stellar 2015, and ranks fifth in the NL with a .438 on-base percentage.    As it stands now I could see a four-year deal worth $60MM, and I think he could have a shot at five years if his offensive success continues.  Quite the transformation for Cervelli, who will turn 31 shortly before the 2017 season.

10.  Dexter Fowler.  Like Cespedes, Fowler could find the contract that eluded him after another year back with his old team.  So far in 2016, Fowler has been the best player in baseball.  The Cubs’ center fielder boasts an MLB-best .470 OBP.  Though he’s never approached four wins above replacement, Fowler already has two in the books after one month.  If he stays healthy and productive, Fowler should be able to get a four-year deal in free agency.

Neil Walker and Michael Saunders are both pushing for a spot in our top ten after stellar starts to their seasons.  Walker has already crushed nine home runs, and could reach 30 this year.  Saunders is healthy and hitting after a lost 2015.  Typically weaker against left-handed pitching, Saunders smacked three home runs off southpaws in April, including two off Drew Smyly.  Colby Rasmus, Mark Trumbo, Martin Prado, and Rich Hill are a few others off to hot starts in 2016.  Andrew Cashner drops out of our top ten after a lackluster April.