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New Commenting System At MLBTR

By Tim Dierkes | June 15, 2015 at 11:00pm CDT

You may have noticed that MLBTR now has a new commenting system.  If you had commented at all in 2015 under the old system, you should have received an email with a link to register.  If you did not receive an email, feel free to go into the comments section of a post and click the register button.  It might take a little while for your first-ever comment to be published, but after that it should be instant.

We’re using Gravatar for avatars now.  You can go here to sign in or sign up and upload an image for yourself.

I apologize for any short-term bugs or missing features in this new commenting system.  In the long-term, an in-house commenting system is the right move for MLBTR, Hoops Rumors, Pro Football Rumors.  With a third-party system, we had no control over any aspect.  Now, we can integrate and customize as we wish.  Development is underway to add comments to our Trade Rumors app, by the way.

We love the discussions you create in the comments section of each post.  Please let me know about any bugs with the new system and/or features you’d like to see added.  You can leave a comment on this post, send an email through our contact form, or tell me on Twitter @timdierkes.  Thanks for your patience and happy commenting!

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Apply For Our Statistical Research Project

By Tim Dierkes | June 11, 2015 at 10:29am CDT

Calling all sabermetricians!  We are looking for someone to spearhead a paid statistical research project, with the results to be published on MLBTR.  Applicants should have a strong background in statistics, particularly regression analysis, and of course a love of baseball stats.  Those with published work on popular sabermetric websites will have an edge.

If you’re interested, please email us at mlbtrstats@gmail.com, explaining your qualifications and why you’re the best person for the job.  Please include links to relevant published articles.

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Try The Free MLBTR Newsletter

By Tim Dierkes | May 27, 2015 at 11:40am CDT

Why not try the free MLBTR email Newsletter?  We’ll deliver an exclusive article to your inbox every week – no strings attached! I’ll be weighing in on deals, rumors, and all the hot stove-related topics MLBTR has been known for since I launched the site a decade ago. These articles will be exclusive to MLBTR Newsletter subscribers and will not appear on the website. I may also provide occasional updates on what’s next for MLBTR.  It’s completely free.

I’ll be honored if you give us your email address. We will never sell your email address or market anything to the mailing list, and you can unsubscribe easily. My newest post, coming this afternoon, is about trading Sonny Gray. Sign up now! Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link.

Get the weekly article from Tim!


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2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | May 21, 2015 at 12:00am CDT

We’re a quarter of the way through the 2015 MLB season, and there’s been significant movement in free agent stocks.  It’s time for a new installment of the 2016 Free Agent Power Rankings.

As a reminder, these rankings represent earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market after this season and goes to the highest bidder.  Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.

1.  Justin Upton.  San Diego agrees with Upton, who is on pace for 40 home runs this season.  He could surpass his career high of 31 right around his 28th birthday, which is in late August.  Oddly, the Padres left fielder has done all his damage so far at Petco Park.  Upton will be 3-4 years younger than Robinson Cano and Albert Pujols were when they reached free agency, and he has a chance to top their $240MM contracts.

2.  David Price.  Price’s ERA at last check-in was 0.40, so it had nowhere to go but up.  He’s now at a more mortal 3.40, 22nd among American League qualifiers.  It’s probably just an eight-start blip on the radar, but Price’s strikeout and groundball rates are down this year and he’s allowed more than a hit per inning.

3.  Johnny Cueto.  Is Cueto a better pitcher than Price right now?  I’m considering the possibility more seriously.  Cueto, who is six months younger than Price, leads all of baseball with 7.23 innings per start.  Last year, only Price bettered Cueto’s regular season total of 243 2/3 frames.  Cueto is more than a workhorse, though, as he has a 3.03 ERA on the season.  He stands a decent chance of being traded by the Reds this summer, making him ineligible for a qualifying offer.

4.  Jason Heyward.  Heyward is settling in with the Cardinals, batting .273/.343/.398 since we last checked in.  That’s in line with his last couple of seasons, but another 10-15 home run campaign isn’t going to get him a monster contract.  Just 26 in August, Heyward’s youth and defensive value should still result in a deal worth well over $100MM.

5.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann has shined in the five starts since our last update, bringing his ERA down to 3.66.  His skills in this quarter season have faded considerably from last year, though, as his 15.2% strikeout rate would represent a career worst.  Again: it’s just eight starts.  But a good $50MM hangs in the balance for Zimmermann.

6.  Alex Gordon.  Gordon had December wrist surgery, but his power production seems fine this year.  He’s slugging .472 since we last checked in.  Gordon has been hit by a pitch an AL-best nine times, pushing his OBP up to .378.  Whatever age-based gap there might be between Gordon and Heyward, Gordon is closing it with a five-plus wins above replacement pace.

7.  Zack Greinke.  Greinke jumps up two spots this month, as he’s third in the game with a 1.52 ERA.  A third consecutive sub-3.00 ERA season should help his earning power, though he owes much of his success this year to an unsustainable .217 batting average on balls in play.  It’s a fantastic start to the season regardless.  Zimmermann has two and a half years of age on Greinke, but Greinke is the better pitcher right now.

8.  Ian Desmond.  There’s been nothing redeeming about Desmond’s contract year, which has been replacement level so far.  This was a guy in the running for the best shortstop in baseball from 2012-14, but in 2015 his numbers are way down.  He’s been hitting like Jean Segura, and he’s on pace for baseball’s first 40-error season since Jose Offerman in 1992.  Desmond will still do fine financially, as he faces little competition on the shortstop market.

9.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes’ biggest problem has been readily apparent in 2015, as his 3.1% walk rate is tenth-worst among qualified hitters.  That has contributed to a .290 OBP.  I think Cespedes’ power still makes him a top-75 hitter in MLB, but he hasn’t been in the last calendar year.

10.  Jeff Samardzija.  Little has gone right in Samardzija’s eight starts for the White Sox.  He’s whiffed only 17% of batters, and his groundball rate has taken a tumble.  His skills back up a 4.00+ ERA.  The 30-year-old righty is as good a bet as anyone on this list to be traded this summer.  If Samardzija continues to struggle, he could be out of the top ten next month.

Cubs center fielder Dexter Fowler is pushing for a spot on this list, with a .269/.352/.428 line and improved defense.  He doesn’t turn 30 until March, but has to be penalized for an injury history that hasn’t allowed him to play in 120+ games since 2012.  Howie Kendrick, Denard Span, Adam Lind, Colby Rasmus, and ageless hurlers Aaron Harang and A.J. Burnett are among the other free agents off to strong starts.

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Sign Up For The MLBTR Newsletter

By Tim Dierkes | May 13, 2015 at 7:10am CDT

The new MLBTR Newsletter delivers an exclusive weekly article to your inbox every week! I’ll be weighing in on deals, rumors, and all the hot stove-related topics MLBTR has been known for since I launched the site a decade ago. These articles will be exclusive to MLBTR Newsletter subscribers and will not appear on the website. I may also provide occasional updates on what’s next for MLBTR.

I’ll be honored if you give us your email address. We will never sell your email address or market anything to the mailing list. My second post, coming today, is about which teams should pursue Carlos Gomez.  Sign up now! Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link.

Get the weekly article from Tim!


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Introducing The MLBTR Newsletter

By Tim Dierkes | May 5, 2015 at 2:33pm CDT

The new MLBTR Newsletter delivers an exclusive weekly article to your inbox every week!  I’ll be weighing in on deals, rumors, and all the hot stove-related topics MLBTR has been known for since I launched the site a decade ago.  These articles will be exclusive to MLBTR Newsletter subscribers and will not appear on the website.  I may also provide occasional updates on what’s next for MLBTR.

I’ll be honored if you give us your email address.  We will never sell your email address or market anything to the mailing list.  My first post, coming Wednesday, is titled, “Should The Brewers Trade Carlos Gomez?”  Sign up now!  Those of you viewing this post in our app can use this link.

Get the weekly article from Tim!


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2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

By Tim Dierkes | April 22, 2015 at 3:44pm CDT

Most teams are about 9% through their season at this point, and it’s time for our first midseason update of the 2016 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings.  These players project to reach free agency after this season.

As a reminder, these rankings represent the earning power in terms of total contract size, assuming everyone reaches the open market and goes to the highest bidder.  Here’s MLBTR’s full list of 2015-16 free agents.

1.  Justin Upton.  Upton, 27, is off to a fine start for the second place Padres.  Not coincidentally, the Friars are averaging more than 5.3 runs per game in the early going, tops in the National League.  Nothing seems to be cooking on the extension front, and a free agent contract worth $250MM or more could be in play this winter.

2.  David Price.  Price jumps up a spot after allowing just one earned run in his first 22 1/3 innings.  Before that, some low-level extension discussions with the Tigers occurred in late March.  Price is willing to continue talking contract into the season and seems to have a number in mind that could result in a fairly quick deal if the Tigers reach it.  Logically, that number figures to be in the $200MM range.

3.  Johnny Cueto.  Cueto moves up a spot as well after a trio of seven-inning outings.  As he moves further from his 2013 shoulder strain, Cueto moves closer to Price in earning power.  His Reds are hanging in with a .500 record, though a midseason trade at least seems viable.  A deadline deal would make Cueto ineligible for a qualifying offer, though at ace prices the loss of a draft pick is a secondary concern for suitors.

4.  Jason Heyward.  It’s not fair to bump Heyward down two spots because of 53 lousy plate appearances, but I feel that if the season ended today, Price and Cueto would earn bigger contracts.  Batting second in the order for the Cardinals, Heyward is at .192/.208/.327 on the young season.

5.  Ian Desmond.  On the plus side, Desmond has cut his strikeout rate considerably in his first 14 games, an 18% rate that would represent a full-season career best.  On the other hand, Desmond has made eight errors in his first 125 1/3 innings in the field.  Surely that pace will lessen, but he still has a good shot at 30 on the season.  Even with today’s advanced fielding metrics, 30 errors could be hard for a team owner to ignore if Desmond’s price tag exceeds $150MM.

6.  Jordan Zimmermann.  Zimmermann’s early numbers are off after an April 13th Fenway Park drubbing, and his velocity is down a few ticks from April of last year.  Still, every pitcher is allowed the occasional clunker, and Zimmermann has about 29 starts left to go.

7.  Alex Gordon.  Royals manager Ned Yost intends to exercise extra caution with Gordon in at least the season’s first month due to his December wrist surgery.  11 games don’t tell us much, but it will be worth monitoring whether the wrist saps Gordon’s power at all this year.

8.  Yoenis Cespedes.  Cespedes is off to a strong start, and seems capable of piling up a huge RBI total batting fifth or sixth in the Tigers’ potent lineup.  He is ineligible for a qualifying offer and won’t turn 30 until October, and seems a candidate to move several more spots up this list.

9.  Zack Greinke.  Greinke has three quality starts in three tries this year, and not much has changed with his status.  I still expect him to opt out of his remaining three years and $71MM after the season.

10.  Jeff Samardzija.  Samardzija’s White Sox debut in Kansas City was a forgettable outing, but he has now turned in consecutive gems.  He and Greinke have each fallen a spot only because of Cespedes’ earning power.

In news that was music to the ears of Samardzija, Greinke, Zimmermann, and others, the Red Sox signed Rick Porcello to a four-year, $82.5MM extension earlier this month.  The contract covers his age 27-30 seasons.  Though part of the calculus is Porcello’s youth and the deal being shortened to four years, if he’s worth $20.625MM per season, that bodes well for next winter’s crop of free agent hurlers.

Cueto leads all 2016 free agents with 0.8 wins above replacement early on, though the Dodgers’ Howie Kendrick and the Yankees’ Chris Young have matched him.  Young’s rate stats this year will be skewed, however, if he continues getting more than 40% of his plate appearances against southpaws.

 

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Introducing The New MLB Trade Rumors Mobile Site

By Tim Dierkes | April 17, 2015 at 10:08am CDT

Many of you read MLBTR on your cell phone these days.  Those on mobile devices have noticed a change this week: the introduction of our new mobile website.  Now, if you go to MLBTradeRumors.com on your mobile device, you will get a streamlined version of MLBTR that works much better on a phone.  The new MLBTR mobile site loads more quickly, has fewer ads, and retains features such as a search box, the teams menu, social sharing buttons, and the ability to read and leave comments on posts.

Some of you have protested the change, saying, “If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.”  We can debate whether the pinch-and-zoom non-mobile-friendly MLBTR experience was broken, but Google definitely thought it was, and will be docking all mobile-unfriendly sites in their search results starting Tuesday.  So while we were planning to go mobile-friendly this year, the Google issue forced our hand to do it now.

Of course, we love our longtime mobile readers and respect the fact that some of you prefer the full text of the latest 15 posts to be available on the homepage.  If that’s your preference, just scroll down to the bottom of the screen and hit the Desktop link, and you’ll get the old, familiar desktop version of MLBTR on your phone.

Another alternative is our free Trade Rumors app for iPhone and Android.  The app allows for more customization than the mobile website.  With the Trade Rumors app, you can set up notifications and feeds for any combination of players and teams from MLBTR, Hoops Rumors, and Pro Football Rumors.

If you ever have a question or comment about our sites or app, you can drop me a line on Twitter @timdierkes or write to me using our contact form.

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11 MLB Top Prospects Who Conquered Service Time

By Tim Dierkes | April 16, 2015 at 10:13am CDT

Is there ever a good reason for a team to put their MLB-ready top prospect on the Opening Day roster, as the Diamondbacks recently did with Archie Bradley?  As we’ve seen with the Cubs and Kris Bryant, waiting at least 12 days into the season ensures the team will control the player for a seventh season.  Forward-looking teams that are willing to wait before calling up their phenom can delay his free agency by a year, and that extra year of control is generally more valuable than having the player for the first two weeks of April.  However, we found 11 examples in the last decade of top MLB prospects who did make the Opening Day roster.  You might say these players conquered the service time issue, or at least were lucky enough to have GMs who disregarded it.

Jul 28, 2015; Miami, FL, USA; Miami Marlins starting pitcher Jose Fernandez (16) delivers a pitch against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Marlins Park. Mandatory Credit: Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports
The Marlins lost a year of control of Jose Fernandez to get five additional innings from him.

1.  Jose Fernandez, Marlins SP.  Marlins President of Baseball Operations Larry Beinfest certainly would have been justified giving Fernandez a little more minor league seasoning in 2013.  The game’s #5 overall prospect according to Baseball America, Fernandez was just 20 years old and had never pitched above A ball.  But when Marlins starters Nathan Eovaldi and Henderson Alvarez got hurt, Fernandez surprisingly made the team.

Was it worth it?  Fernandez didn’t make his Marlins debut until April 7th, 2013, so they ultimately traded his five-inning debut for control of his age-26 season, which will happen in 2019.  He was clearly ready to make the jump, as Fernandez won the National League Rookie of the Year award.  However, over a year of the Marlins’ control of their young ace was lost when he went under the knife for Tommy John surgery the following season.  The team put him on the 2013 Opening Day roster even with the knowledge that he was represented by notorious agent Scott Boras, who generally encourages players to avoid extensions that delay free agency.  In December, the Marlins reportedly made a six-year offer (with two club options) worth close to $40MM, but no deal was reached.  Even if they do reach some kind of precedent-shattering deal, five extra innings from Fernandez as part of a 100-loss season was not worth it for the Marlins.

2.  Jedd Gyorko, Padres 2B.  Gyorko came into 2013 as BA’s #71-ranked prospect, and he spent Spring Training working on the transition from third to second base.  Injuries to Chase Headley and Logan Forsythe helped open the door for GM Josh Byrnes to put Gyorko on the Opening Day roster.

Was it worth it?  It’s possible that the goodwill from Byrnes’ lack of regard for service time helped encourage Gyorko to sign a six-year, $35.5MM extension with a club option with the Padres a year later.  In that contract the Padres paid a free agent price for the 2019 season ($13MM), which potentially could have been cheaper had that represented his fourth year of arbitration.  Or, an extra year of control might have convinced Byrnes to wait another season before proposing an extension.  Gyorko struggled mightily with injuries and performance as a sophomore in 2014, and the extension might end up being regrettable.

3.  Mike Leake, Reds SP.  The Reds drafted Leake eighth overall in 2009 out of Arizona State, and with nothing more than an Arizona Fall League stint under his belt as a pro, he beat Travis Wood for the fifth starter job to begin the 2010 season.  He pitched well enough as a rookie, but was moved to the bullpen in August and his season ended on the 24th of that month.

Was it worth it?  The Reds won the division by five games in 2010, and Leake was a part of that.  Leake was wild on his April 11th debut, but still beat the Cubs.  Since GM Walt Jocketty could have easily let him make his debut a few days later, it was not worth it.  Controlling Leake for 2016, his age 28 season, would have been valuable, even if he would have cost $14MM through arbitration.

4.  Austin Jackson, Tigers CF.  Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski acquired Jackson in the epic three-team December 2009 trade that also included Max Scherzer, Curtis Granderson, Ian Kennedy, Edwin Jackson, Phil Coke, and Daniel Schlereth.  Jackson was regarded as the #76 prospect in baseball, and he became the Tigers’ Opening Day center fielder.

Was it worth it?  Jackson hit quite well in his first dozen games or so, and his performance easily could have led to an additional win or two.  It wasn’t worth it in that the Tigers finished at .500, but at the time Dombrowski’s decision was defensible.  Jackson was again part of a big three-team deal at the 2014 trade deadline.  He would have carried more trade value with 2016 control, though teams will be down on him for next year if his current struggles persist.

5.  Jason Heyward, Braves RF.  In a situation analogous to Bryant, the Braves had the game’s best prospect prior to the 2010 season in Heyward.  Heyward had just three games of Triple-A experience, but GM Frank Wren couldn’t resist putting the 20-year-old on the Opening Day roster after a legendary Spring Training.

Was it worth it?  The Braves won the Wild Card by one game and Heyward had a very strong start, so this is a rare case where it was worth it.  The Braves traded Heyward to the Cardinals last November with Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins.  That was a solid return, but of course the Braves would have done better if they controlled Heyward for ’16 as well.

6.  Colby Rasmus, Cardinals CF.  Rasmus was Baseball America’s #3 prospect prior to the 2009 season.  He made GM John Mozeliak’s Opening Day roster, but wasn’t in the outfield when the Cards battled Pittsburgh on April 5th.

Was it worth it?  The Cardinals won the Central Division handily in ’09, but since Rasmus didn’t start every game those first few weeks, it probably wasn’t worth putting him on the Opening Day roster.  When Mozeliak traded Rasmus to the Blue Jays in an eight-player deal in July 2011, the outfielder had three-plus seasons of control remaining.  It was well-known by that point that Rasmus had worn out his welcome in St. Louis, so while the additional year of control always increases a player’s trade value, it might not have made a huge difference here.

7.  Elvis Andrus, Rangers SS.  In December 2008, Rangers GM Jon Daniels and manager Ron Washington told face of the franchise Michael Young he’d be shifting from shortstop to third base in 2009, paving the way for one of the game’s top 40 prospects in Andrus.

Was it worth it?  Andrus hit quite well in those first few weeks, and surely made some plays at shortstop Young would not have.  The Rangers won 87 games and fell short of the Wild Card, but at the time the decision was made, it was defensible.  Three years later Andrus signed a deal buying out only his arbitration years, and then a year after that Andrus asked agent Scott Boras to get him a long-term extension, even though it meant missing the chance at being the rare 26-year-old free agent.  Boras got Andrus a huge deal with a pair of opt-outs.  If in spring 2013 the Rangers already controlled Andrus through 2015, they would have at least approached those extension talks differently.

8.  Brett Anderson, Athletics SP.  Savvy GMs had no problem putting top prospects on Opening Day rosters back in 2009.  Even Billy Beane did it with Anderson, the game’s #7 prospect heading into that season, even though the lefty had made only six starts above A ball.  Anderson was the team’s fourth starter out of the gate, losing his first couple of starts.

Was it worth it?  With a starting pitcher it’s almost never “worth it,” since the extra MLB time amounts to one or two starts.  Anderson had a solid rookie year for the A’s, and maybe Beane’s gesture of putting him on the Opening Day roster was a factor in him signing a four-year, $12.5MM deal with two club options a year later.  The contract bought back the potential year of control the A’s lost (2015), and that $12MM club option probably still had a bit of value to the Rockies when they acquired Anderson in December 2013.  They ultimately chose a $1.5MM buyout instead, as Anderson’s injury woes continued in Colorado.

9.  Johnny Cueto, Reds SP.  Cueto was BA’s #34 prospect prior to the 2008 season,  and he broke camp as part of the Reds’ rotation.  Cueto dazzled in his first couple of the starts, and the Reds won his debut by one run.

Was it worth it?  That extra Cueto-related win didn’t matter much for the Reds, who finished in fifth place in ’08.  It’s possible that some goodwill from GM Wayne Krivsky’s decision came into play in January 2011, when new GM Walt Jocketty signed Cueto to a four-year deal with a club option for ’15 (an easy choice to exercise last fall).  If Cueto was held in Triple-A for a few weeks to begin ’08, would he have chosen not to sign an extension later?  In that scenario, he would have reached free agency after 2014.  It’s also possible that a few weeks as a rookie wouldn’t have mattered to him, and controlling him through ’14 could have meant signing him to an extension running through ’16.

10.  John Danks, White Sox SP.  White Sox GM Kenny Williams acquired Danks from the Rangers in December 2006, sending Brandon McCarthy to Texas.  Like Dave Dombrowski with Austin Jackson, Williams couldn’t wait to get his new acquisition on the big league club.  It’s kind of like a kid getting a new toy and opening the box on the ride home.

Was it worth it?  Danks would have benefited from additional Triple-A seasoning, as he posted a 5.50 ERA as a rookie.  He was decent in his first couple of starts, though the White Sox lost both games en route to a fourth place finish.  Williams’ decision set Danks up for free agency after 2012, but he signed a five-year, $65MM extension prior to his walk year.   Danks wound up needing shoulder surgery in 2012.  An extra year of control might have prevented the White Sox from extending Danks in general, in which case they wouldn’t have him on the books currently.

11.  Nick Markakis, Orioles RF/LF.  Top Orioles exec Mike Flanagan put Markakis on the team’s Opening Day roster back in 2006.  The 22-year-old had played just 33 games above A ball.

Was it worth it?  Markakis didn’t play every day in the season’s first few weeks and the Orioles finished in fourth place.  Flanagan’s roster decision had Markakis on track for free agency after 2011, but in January 2009 Andy MacPhail signed him to a six-year, $66.1MM extension with a club option for 2015.  I don’t think much would have changed with the contract had Flanagan waited a few weeks in ’06 to call Markakis up.

What have we learned?  Two weeks of a rookie in April is rarely directly worth trading for a seventh year of control, but the tradeoff can be defensible for certain teams and players.  Also, the extra year of control could impact extensions in multiple ways.  On one hand, it’s possible some players signed extensions partially because of the goodwill from being placed on the Opening Day roster.  On the other hand, an additional year of control might have bought GMs more time to gather data on whether certain extensions were worth pursuing in the first place.

Please note that we looked for examples within the last ten seasons, omitting players like Joe Mauer, and we also left out relievers such as Joel Zumaya and Huston Street.

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Offseason In Review: Chicago White Sox

By Tim Dierkes | March 26, 2015 at 9:00pm CDT

The White Sox had an active, successful offseason in which they upgraded their pitching staff and imported multiple bats.

Major League Signings

  • David Robertson, RP: Four years, $46MM
  • Melky Cabrera, LF: Three years, $42MM
  • Adam LaRoche, 1B: Two years, $25MM
  • Zach Duke, RP: Three years, $15MM
  • Emilio Bonifacio, 2B/CF: One year, $4MM.  Includes $4MM club option for 2016 with a $1MM buyout.
  • Gordon Beckham, 2B/3B: One year, $2MM
  • Total spend: $134MM

Notable Minor League Signings

  • Geovany Soto, Matt Albers, Brad Penny, Jesse Crain, Scott Carroll, Logan Kensing, Joe Savery, George Kottaras, Andy LaRoche, Engel Beltre, Zach Phillips

Trades And Claims

  • Claimed OF J.B. Shuck off waivers from Indians
  • Claimed RP Onelki Garcia off waivers from Dodgers
  • Claimed C Rob Brantly off waivers from Marlins
  • Acquired SP Jeff Samardzija and RP Michael Ynoa from Athletics for IF Marcus Semien, SP Chris Bassitt, C Josh Phegley, and 1B Rangel Ravelo
  • Acquired RP Dan Jennings from Marlins for SP Andre Rienzo
  • Acquired 1B/3B Neftali Soto from Reds for cash considerations

Extensions

  • Adam Eaton, CF: five years, $23.5MM.  Includes $9.5MM club option for 2020 with a $1.5MM buyout and $10.5MM club option for 2021 with a $1.5MM buyout.

Notable Losses

  • Dayan Viciedo, Paul Konerko, Jordan Danks, Ronald Belisario, Matt Lindstrom, Felipe Paulino, Marcus Semien, Chris Bassitt, Josh Phegley, Rangel Ravelo, Andre Rienzo, Moises Sierra, Taylor Thompson

Needs Addressed

With core players Jose Abreu, Chris Sale, and Jose Quintana signed to affordable contracts, the White Sox were expected to take an aggressive approach to the offseason to fill their needs.  They met with Pablo Sandoval’s agent at the GM Meetings in November, and had Victor Martinez on their wish list as well.  Around this time GM Rick Hahn also quietly explored trading for Jason Heyward, which wasn’t reported until this month.  Martinez re-signed quickly with the Tigers, however, so Hahn signed Adam LaRoche at less than 40% of the commitment Martinez required.

The price difference between LaRoche and Martinez reflects the fact that Martinez is a better hitter, of course.  Still, the White Sox got their coveted left-handed bat without taking on the risk of Martinez’s age 36-39 seasons.  Plus, bringing in a more capable defensive first baseman in LaRoche should help keep Abreu healthy.

The White Sox continued moving quickly by signing lefty reliever Zach Duke to a three-year, $15MM deal in mid-November.  Such a contract would have seemed absurd less than a year prior, as Duke had joined the Brewers on a minor league deal in January.  Duke was quietly dominant for the Brewers in 2014 after making a series of adjustments to his pitch mix and arm slot.  No team likes signing a reliever to a three-year deal, especially one with such a brief track record of success.  Only three other relievers received deals of three or more years this offseason, and one of those was also with the White Sox.  Still, the third year for Duke was the cost of doing business, and waiting until January for bargains is risky in its own way.MLB: Seattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox

Hahn owned the first night of the Winter Meetings, grabbing headlines by closing in on a trade for Jeff Samardzija and a free agent contract for David Robertson in the course of a few hours.  The Samardzija trade was a big win for the White Sox.  I do see the sneaky value in the players the A’s acquired — lower ceiling players who are mostly considered to be solid-average regulars by Baseball America.  Still, they were all players Chicago could afford to surrender to acquire one year of a potential front-rotation arm (plus perhaps an accompanying draft pick if Samardzija departs via free agency).  The White Sox would have had to take on a lot more risk in the free agent market to bring in a pitcher of Samardzija’s caliber.  In Sale, Samardzija, and Quintana, Hahn has assembled one of the better rotation trios in the game.

In Robertson, the White Sox acquired the offseason’s best available reliever at market price.  It’s interesting to note that Robertson apparently had another team offer even more than $46MM.  As with Duke, the term is not ideal, but it was necessary to sign the elite stopper.  $61MM is a lot to spend on commitments to relievers in one offseason, but the White Sox had very few dollars invested into their bullpen prior to Robertson and Duke.  Spending that much money is kind of a blunt-force way of addressing the team’s biggest problem, but it should work pretty well in the short term.  The Sox also complemented their bullpen by acquiring southpaw Dan Jennings from Miami.

Hahn continued going down his long list of offseason upgrades, signing Melky Cabrera to a three-year, $42MM deal to play left field.  (We’ll have more on that signing in the Deal of Note section.)  After Cabrera, free agents Emilio Bonifacio, Gordon Beckham, and Geovany Soto were added as versatile bench pieces.  Getting Soto on a minor league deal was a plus.  Matt Albers and Jesse Crain were also added on minor league deals.

A five-year, $23.5MM extension for center fielder Adam Eaton capped Chicago’s busy offseason.  The talented 26-year-old missed 124 games due to injuries over the past two seasons, but the White Sox balanced that risk with reasonable salaries and a pair of club options at the end.

Questions Remaining

With top prospect Carlos Rodon a phone call away, maybe rotation depth won’t prove to be a problem for the White Sox.  Still, the rotation looks strong when Sale, Samardzija, and Quintana are pitching, and vulnerable the other 40% of the time with Hector Noesi, John Danks, Rodon, and maybe Brad Penny.  The Sox are still tied up with $28.5MM owed to Danks through 2016.

I raised the question of catching in my Offseason Outlook, and some alternatives and/or backups to Tyler Flowers were added in Soto, Rob Brantly, and George Kottaras.  The Sox did reportedly poke around on the Astros’ Jason Castro and discussed Miguel Montero with the Diamondbacks, so alternatives to Flowers were considered.  Catching still seems like a weak point in both the short and long-term.

There’s also the issue of executive vice president and former GM Ken Williams.  It was revealed in December that the Blue Jays sought to interview Williams to be their president/CEO, but White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf declined to grant them permission, and considered the attempt to be tampering.  Ultimately the Blue Jays retained Paul Beeston for one more year, and Williams doesn’t appear to begrudge Reinsdorf about the situation, perhaps because the Jays’ timing was indeed terrible.  Williams’ future with the White Sox bears watching though.

Deal Of Note

Melky Cabrera entered the offseason as our fourth-ranked free agent hitter, and many of us at MLBTR thought he would get the five-year deal he sought.  While there was reportedly one four-year offer, Cabrera settled for three years from the White Sox.  Even accounting for his 2012 PED suspension, qualifying offer, and below-average defense, it was surprising he didn’t sign for more money in a thin market for bats.  It works very well for the White Sox, who committed less to Cabrera and LaRoche than the Tigers did just to Martinez, diversifying their risk in the process.

Overview

We know “winning the offseason” doesn’t mean much once games start, but the White Sox entered the winter with a long list of needs and filled most of them, finding a few relative bargains along the way.  Hahn has assembled a much more interesting team that should be in contention in 2015.

Photo courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas/USA Today Sports Images

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2014-15 Offseason In Review Chicago White Sox MLBTR Originals

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