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Latest On MLB’s 2020 Schedule Proposal

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TODAY: The league’s proposal will include use of a designated hitter for both NL and AL lineups, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  Earlier this week, The Athletic’s Jim Bowden wrote that the universal DH concept was “at least being discussed and considered” by league officials.

SATURDAY: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic has the details on MLB’s newest proposal for a 2020 season. Rosenthal notes that nothing he describes is set in stone and could very well change upon scrutinization from the Players’ Union or medical professionals. Read his full write-up for all the details.

That said, the bones of the proposal are as follows: MLB would look to play a 78- or 82-game season beginning in early July, where teams would compete only with opponents in their geographic region (i.e., AL West teams would play only division rivals and NL West teams). Ideally, those games would take place in clubs’ normal home parks, but teams in cities where that isn’t feasible could temporarily relocate to their spring training cites or other MLB parks.

A 14-team postseason structure continues to be floated as part of this newest proposal. As previously described, each league would send 7 teams into the playoffs instead of the current 5. The best record in each league would hold a premium place in the postseason as the only team to get a bye for the first round. Of course, until we hear differently, any and all news of a playing schedule should be taken with a grain of salt.

Player pay continues to be a key question with any proposal (beyond health concerns and logistics, of course). There is no timetable for when fans would be allowed to return to stadiums, making it likely that players would be asked to accept a further reduction in pay. As Rosenthal lays out, however, they would potentially be compensated through a single-season revenue-sharing agreement.

The ramifications of this schedule proposal spread far and wide, though the priority remains on figuring out the safest and best way to return to baseball. Still, a season half the length of normal could result in suped-up playoff races.

Beyond the ramifications on the 2020 season, a wonky schedule could add another wrinkle to upcoming drafts. A short season means less margin for error and more room for potential cinderella runs or surprising collapses. Limiting the draft to just 5 rounds, meanwhile, means that a great number of potentially very good major league players will go unselected. It also likely means a stronger draft class in 2021 and beyond, as players with remaining eligibility will be inclined to return to school for another go-round. Factoring in a short season that could send some very competitive clubs to the top of the draft order, and MLB is facing a very particular couple of (draft) seasons in the short term. From a financial standpoint, clubs will have the opportunity to sign some very high-potential undrafted players for a mere $20K signing bonus. The competition and eventual distribution of those players will be an interesting case study to track over the next 10+ years.

Of course, the first step remains the approval of the proposed structure. If the owners approve of the deal on their scheduled call with the league office, Rosenthal suggests that the proposal could be sent to the Players’ Union for approval as early as Tuesday.

The Pitcher To Receive The Most Extra Strikes In 2019 Was…

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In a recent bout of strike zone curiosity, I started looking into umpire accuracy metrics to try to visualize the baseball world at our doorstep: a world in which balls and strikes are called by robot umpires. While referring to an electronic strike zone as “robot umpires” no doubt adds an unnecessary measure of Asimovian flourish, the reality of baseball’s future is bearing down on us. Electronic strike zones are coming to baseball.

Then again, COVID-19 threw a wrench into all pockets of predicting baseball’s future, and there’s no longer any certainty in, well, just about anything. So there will be no more crystal ball voyeurism from me today, no more speculation, only a cold, hard look at the past.

Of course, the issue of umpire accuracy is hardly reserved for the future. Until electronic strike zones are implemented, the human models making the calls behind the plate remain incapable of ridding themselves entirely of human error – try as they might. Sometimes a ball misses the plate, and they call it a strike. Sometimes it crosses the dish, and the arm stays at the umpire’s side. The question for today is this: which pitcher got the most extra strikes in 2019?

With my previous look into Statcast pitch data, I looked for clusters of pitchers that would illuminate certain things about how umpires called balls and strikes. Today is about passing along some of the trivia. Statcast data, after all, holds a ton of information, including whether or not each ball or strike was correctly called. Using machine learning, we can pretty cleanly find those pitchers who benefited the most from gifted strikes, as well as those who were hurt the most by stolen strikes.

And that brings us to Adam Warren of the San Diego Padres (frequently and presently a member of the New York Yankees). Of the pitchers who threw as many as 200 pitches in the majors in 2019, it wasn’t close: Warren benefited more than any other pitcher in 2019 from umpires gifting extra strikes.

To be perfectly clear, a gifted strike here is a pitch that lands outside the strike zone that the umpire calls a strike. This alone does not make Warren the luckiest pitcher in baseball. Nor does it make him the umpires’ favorite (though it probably gets him a look). In a vacuum, that Warren led the league in percentage of called strikes that were gifted means only this: no pitcher had a higher percentage of their called strikes come from pitches that missed the zone.

This was important for Warren because, even with the added help, only 31.4% of his pitches landed in the zone (league average was 39.4%). And while batters swung and missed at a relatively average rate when Warren was throwing strikes, batter O-Contract% – the percentage of times a batter makes contact when swinging at a ball outside the zone – was just 61.9%, much lower than the 67.3% average. So the more Warren got batters to chase, the more effective he became (surprise, surprise). Still, he only registered 7.85 K/9 versus 3.77 BB/9.

For context, MLB pitchers – on average – had ~16% of their called strikes come on pitches outside the zone. Warren, by contrast, received a gifted strike on almost 42% of his strike calls. This was an extreme outlier. The second-place finisher for highest percentage of gifted strikes was Michel Baez at ~30% – interestingly, also of the Padres (and the conspiracy is on!). Not for nothing, but Warren also fits the profile of the type of pitcher more prone to getting extra calls. He averaged just 86.4 mph this season (fastball clocking at 91.4 mph), he’s right-handed, and both his fastball and curve register in the bottom quartile for spin rate.

If he were a starter, he’d fit the mold exactly. Of course, sample size is likely a culprit here in Warren’s numbers being so far outside the norm. Warren wasn’t exactly a spotlight pitcher in 2019. He threw 555 pitches for the Padres across 25 games, 28 2/3 innings. He ended the year 4-1 with a 5.34 ERA/6.91 FIP making his season worth -0.2 bWAR/-0.8 fWAR. This is not to say he will be a total disaster if he suits up for the Yankees sometime this season, nor is it to say he’ll receive the same measure of umpire error if he does. Though Warren has been received favorably by umpires in the past, his overall average percentage of gifted strikes over the past 5 seasons is just under 28%. That still puts him two standard deviations above the mean, but nowhere near the outlier of his 2019.

Three Teams Who’ve Yet To Win Their Division

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It is somewhat amazing that there are three National League teams – one each for the West, East, and Central – that have yet to win their division.

Make no mistake, the American League has its share of heartbreak. The Mariners have yet to return to the playoffs after their 116-win season in 2001. The Rangers are far away as ever from capturing their first World Series after the so-close-you-can-taste-it near-misses of 2010 and 2011. Fans of the Astros and Red Sox have suffered different brands of heartbreak after the legitimacy of their recent winners was called into question. 

But in the National League, the Rockies, Marlins, and Pirates have never won their respective divisions.

Granted, the Pirates were crowned champs of the National League East 9 times, including a three-peat for Jim Leyland’s clubs from 1990 to 1992 and a title-winner way back in 1979 – but since they moved to the NL Central in 1994: goose eggs. That’s a 26-year-run without a divisional crown, a mark of futility eclipsed only by the Rockies and Marlins. Colorado and Florida both entered the league in 1993, and neither has landed the top spot in their division in the 27 seasons since. 

Back in the junior circuit, every team in the AL East has won since 2010 (Tampa Bay). In the Central, the White Sox have the longest drought (11 seasons), going back to their first-place finish in 2008. Everyone in the AL West has taken their turn at the top since 2012 – except the Mariners, of course, who won the division in 2001 and 1997.

But each division in the National League has its slow-and-steady competitor, so let’s take a quick look at each.

Colorado Rockies

Of these three clubs, the Rockies’ reputation took the fewest hits over the last 27 years. The Blake Street Bombers hold a particular place in baseball lore, and there’s a general sense of “unfortunate circumstances” around the Rox because of the thin air in Colorado. The impossibility of housing a winning pitching staff at Coors Field is baseball cliche now, but that doesn’t make the challenge any less potent.

Here’s what I wrote of Colorado in their Offseason In Review post back in March: “Colorado pitching, after all, has proven one of the more frustrating team-building challenges in the major leagues. The Sisyphean task of constructing even a league-average pitching staff at Coors Field persists year-after-year. Over the course of their 27-season history, the Rockies posted a league-average or better team ERA just three times (2010, 2009, 2007). In 2010, Jim Tracy’s 83-win squad finished with an exactly-league-average ERA, but those other two seasons — 2009, 2007 — happen to be two of the only three seasons in which the Rockies won 90 games in their history.”

Adding to the task at hand for Colorado, there’s at least a possibility that ownership believes this team is better than it is. They lost 91 games last year and have exhibited zero financial flexibility. If they end up losing close to 90 games again (or the equivalent in whatever kind of season is played in 2020), then the Rockies are still probably in the decline phase, not yet having rebooted into a full-blown rebuild. Rebuilds, of course, are time-intensive when done right, and very time-intensive when rushed.

The Rockies have made the postseason a handful of times, and they won the pennant in 2007, but they’re caught in no-man’s-land now. The Dodgers have won the division 7 years running, and Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger, and company have plenty left in the tank. The Padres’ stable of young arms makes them one of the more intriguing up-and-coming teams in the league, and the Diamondbacks continue to impress with their ability to retool on the fly. After coming within a play-in game of taking the crown from the Dodgers in 2018, the Rockies might have missed their best shot.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins entered the league at a tough time to be a member of the NL East. The Atlanta Braves held a hammerlock on the division, taking the crown every season from 1995 until 2005 (they were in the NL West before that). To their credit, the Marlins made themselves into a competitive squad pretty quick, making the playoffs as a wild card in 1997, just their fifth season of existence. The organization made its name the year after, however, in selling off the pieces of their World Series winner and cratering into a 108-loss squad. After that horrid 1998 season, it took the Marlins five more years to get back to the playoffs again, at which point it was second-verse-same-as-the-first. They didn’t sink quite so fast or quite so far the second time around, but they also haven’t recovered (no playoff appearances since 2003).

That said, the Marlins have begun to see the light from their decade-plus in limbo. MLBTR’s own Mark Polishuk wrapped up the Marlins offseason back in March with this: “It’s a sign of progress, however, that the scorched-earth phase of the rebuild seems to be over.  Villar, Kintzler, or other veterans on short-term deals could well end up being moved at the trade deadline, but it doesn’t seem like younger talent is on the move…Miami seems ready to find out if the young players it already has in the fold could end up being part of that next Marlins winner, and it will be intriguing to see which of the pitchers and position players take that next step in 2020.”

The current era of Marlins baseball is best known for shepherding the likes of Giancarlo Stanton, Christian Yelich, and Marcell Ozuna out of town prior to the 2018 season. But they’re also a unique entrant on this mini-list because they won not just one, but two World Series titles over this span. Derek Jeter now helms the organization, and though they don’t have that face-of-the-franchise type player soaking up their spotlight, they’ve become increasingly competitive. Heading into whichever season of baseball comes next, they’ll have a decent collection of starting pitchers to keep them in games – with a smaller host of position player prospects nearing the majors. Whether they have that franchise-changing talent in the upper ranks is unclear. Business might not yet be booming in Miami, but it’s better. 

Pittsburgh Pirates

As stated above, it’s a bit unfair for the Pirates to be lumped in with the expansion clubs from the nineties, as they do have a history of success in the major leagues. They have 9 division crowns, 7 World Series appearances, and 5 World Series banners. But that’s all ancient history.

Since moving to the NL Central in 1994, the Pirates are a firm contender for the most moribund franchise in the sport. The departure of Barry Bonds after the 1992 season put an unfortunate face on their decline – much in the way that Babe Ruth’s departure doomed Boston baseball for so long – but there has been ample time to rebound from those back-to-back game 7 losses to Atlanta in 1991 and 1992.

In the time since the Pirates’ primary distinction is claiming the title for the longest streak of losing seasons in North American sports history. Forget about division titles. The Pirates weren’t able to finish over .500 one time from 1993 to 2012.

Pittsburgh fans finally had something to cheer for in 2013 when Clint Hurdle’s club broke through with 94 wins and a wild card berth. They even won that first playoff game against the division rival Cincinnati Reds and pushed another rival – the Cardinals – to five games in the NLDS. The club followed its star outfield of Andrew McCutchen, Starling Marte, and Gregory Polanco to two more wild card berths in the following two seasons. Unfortunately, they were unable to get more than one playoff game in either of those years.

After finishing over .500 again in 2018, last season brought on a complete reset. Most of the organizations’ management turned over, and the remaining faces of those competitive clubs – Hurdle, Marte – were also sent packing. The organization is now in the hands of GM Ben Cherington, but they’re facing a complete philosophical overhaul. While they have talent, they’re not an easy club to put a timeline on returning to contention. Not until they put together a pitching staff with a more effective (and less pugilistic) philosophy. The division isn’t dominated by one team like the current AL West, but the Cardinals build a winner year after year, and the Cubs and Brewers aren’t far off in terms of their recent consistency.

Looking ahead, a shortened season in 2020 could open the window for a bizarre sort of division champ. All hope is not lost. On the whole, however, I don’t think there are a lot of pundits who would pick any of the Rockies, Marlins, or Pirates to breakthrough next season. Still, it’s bound to happen one day, right? All three teams will work to end their respective droughts, and in the meantime, thank goodness for the wild card.

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Remembering A Disastrous World Series Performance

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The worst bullpen meltdown of the 2001 World Series was not the one you think. You probably go right to Byung-Hyun Kim blowing saves in games four and five in Yankee Stadium, putting the Diamondbacks on the brink of elimination heading into game six. But that’s not it.

You might also think of Mariano Rivera blowing the save in game seven. Mark Grace singled, Rivera turned a sac bunt attempt into runners on first and second, Tony Womack eventually knocked home the tying run. Then Tim McCarver – without so much as a spoiler alert – laid out exactly what was about to happen like he’d seen it already, and Luis Gonzalez shoveled a ball over the drawn in infield to win the World Series. Just like that, the greatest closer of all time blew game seven of the World Series, ending a Yankee dynasty in its tracks.

But that’s not it either. I’m talking about Jay Witasick’s beautifully disastrous performance in game six.

With the Yankees up three games to two in the 2001 World Series, the series shifted back to Arizona for a critical game six. The Yankees were just one win away from their fourth consecutive World Series championship, while the Diamondbacks, in their fourth season, hadn’t yet existed in a world in which the Yankees were not the champs. Kim’s consecutive blown saves put Arizona in this position, but in game six, it would be the Yankees bullpen that would implode. Though Jay Witasick’s meltdown didn’t come in as high a leverage situation as Kim’s (nor Rivera’s), it was something to behold.

Witasick entered Game 6 with runners on second and third with the Yankees trailing 5-0. It was still early. The game was in reach. Here’s how hitters fared against Witasick that inning:

  • Single to LF
  • Single to LF
  • Single to LF
  • Single to RF
  • Tony Womack strikes out swinging (phew!)
  • Single to CF
  • Double to LF
  • Single to CF
  • Double to CF
  • Reggie Sanders strikes out swinging (finally!)

In a game when the Yankees could have clinched a World Series victory, Joe Torre let Witasick stay in the game to surrender four consecutive hits – twice! – in one inning. By the time Reggie Sanders finally struck out, the Diamondbacks led 12-0. Relievers are often made to wear it the way Witasick did here, but a win in this game meant a World Series title. This wasn’t a normal game. This was the type of game when – normally – you never give up. Witasick’s 8 earned runs tied him with Grover “Pete” Alexander for the most runs ever given up in a World Series game. Alexander took 2 1/3 innings to give up that many in the 1928 World Series against the Yankees. 

Witasick would give up two more hits the next inning (he started another inning!), giving him a final line that looks like this (parents, cover your children’s eyes): 1 ⅓ innings, 10 hits, 9 runs (8 earned), 4 strikeouts. Randy Choate came on and allowed Witasick’s stragglers to score, by which point the Diamondbacks led 15-0. Luis Gonzalez – their consensus best player – was pulled for rest in the bottom of that inning (the 4th inning!). Given the stakes of the game, it’s amazing that Torre allowed Witasick to get shelled the way he did. 

I’ll give Torre this: games four and five of the 2001 World Series went into extra innings, and leading 3 games to 2 going into game six, the Yankees had some cause to pack it in by the time Andy Pettitte left the game without recording an out in the third inning. And it’s not as if Witasick was giving up home runs. These were mostly bleeders through the left side of the infield – but they weren’t totally cheap knocks either. 

On the other hand, when Pettitte exited the game, it was still just a 5-0 deficit in the 3rd inning. Of course, Torre also had reason to doubt whether his offense could come back from a deficit that large. In the first five games of the series combined, the Yankees had scored a total of four runs in innings 1 through 8. Without a pair of clutch ninth-inning home runs from Tino Martinez and Scott Brosius, the Yankees came dangerously close to losing all 7 games of the series (which, of course, would have been impossible). 

Still, Witasick’s ill-fated stint in the third and fourth inning of game 6 stands out as a woeful performance with the season on the line. Witasick put together a solid professional career, pitching for 7 teams over 12 years with a 4.64 ERA/4.69 FIP, and it’s hardly his fault that Torre decided to pack this one in by the third inning, but it’s worth a re-watch nonetheless.

Merrifield Or Kingery?

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Scott Kingery and Whit Merrifield aren’t exactly at the same place in their careers.

Merrifield, 31, led his team in bWAR last season and is considered by many as the best player on their rebuilding club. He’s a late-bloomer, but on the wrong side of thirty nonetheless, with 3.5 seasons under his belt as an above-average player. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently wrote this of Merrifield: “The 31-year-old is one of the better all-around veteran assets in the game, considering his ability to play multiple positions, his inexpensive contract that could extend through the 2023 season, and his three consecutive seasons of strong production.” He boasts a career batting line of .296/.344/.445, good for 109 wRC+.

Kingery, 26, disappointed in a major way in his first shot at the big leagues, but he rebounded last year with an honest effort as a multi-positional asset for the contending Phillies. In just his age-25 season, Kingery posted a line of .258/.315/.474 across 500 plate appearances while socking 19 long balls. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently wrote this: “Kingery had some ups and downs in his second season in the bigs, but ultimately made huge strides and turned in a league-average offensive season.” To this point, Kingery’s career line stands at just .242/.291/.407 – but the former 2nd round pick produced a 101 wRC+ last season. At a similar age, Merrifield was splitting his time between Double and Triple A.

Financially-speaking, both are signed to long-term deals. Because Merrifield debuted on the older side, he signed a very team-friendly deal through potentially his age-34 season. He’ll make $5MM in 2020, $6.75MM in 2021, just $2.75MM in 2022, and the Royals hold a team option for $10.5MM in 2023. Many thought Merrifield would be traded to a contending team this winter, but the Royals love him, and given his contract, there’s no particular rush to move him. By not moving him, they’re missing out on the opportunity to add young talent to the organization, but Merrifield is producing now, and his story is one that might give many Kansas City farmhands hope.

Kingery is signed even longer. The Phillies will pay him $1.75MM in 2020 (in theory), $4.25MM in 2021, $6.25MM in 2022, and $8.25MM in 2023. Philadelphia also holds three team options: $13MM in 2024, $14MM in 2025, and $15MM in 2026.

Kingery’s deal brings a lot more upside, with Merrifield likely brings more near-term value. Given the current standings of the Phillies and Royals, an argument could be made that a straight-up swap of the two multi-positional right-handers makes a lot of sense. Kingery has yet to prove that he can produce a season like Merrfield’s 5.2 bWAR effort in 2018, but he’s also five years younger and signed for a longer period. Their deals, meanwhile, converge in 2023, where a 34-year-old Merrifield would be making more on a one-year deal than the 29-year-old Kingery, who at that point will have three relatively reasonable team options remaining.

Both players boast well-rounded games, with Kingery bringing a bit more pop potential, while Merrifield has superior bat skills. Kingery has swiped 25 bases while only being caught 7 times over his two seasons, while Merrifield led the AL in stolen bases in both 2017 and 2018. Last year, Merrifield’s volume and efficiency fell off a bit as he swiped just 20 bases in 30 chances. Both players have capably moved around the diamond, both infield and outfield. The gap between Merrifield’s 110 wRC+ last season and Kingery’s 101 wRC+ isn’t as great as the perceived talent gap between the two players. If nothing else, assume some age-related regression for Merrifield, while Kingery develops further as he grows into his prime, and don’t these two inch just a little closer?

Merrifield is the quick-trigger choice, but given a comprehensive look at both players, an argument can be made that Kingery is the better asset. All in, which would you prefer to have on your team: Merrifield’s proven qualities or Kingery’s rising upside? Put another way, who has the better asset: the Royals or Phillies?

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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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The Orioles kept pretty quiet again this winter. They added a couple veteran stopgaps to temper the timelines of their young players. They also lost two Baltimore mainstays: Dylan Bundy and Mark Trumbo – both of whom had been with the big league club since 2016. Chris Davis and Mychal Givens are the only players left on the roster who have seen postseason action in an Orioles’ uniform.

Guaranteed Contracts

Trades and Claims

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

The Orioles are an interesting team from a short-season perspective. They don’t have the depth to compete over a full slate of 162 ballgames, but in some bizarro post-coronavirus tournament? They’re still probably not competitors – but they could be peskier than most suspect. Then again, that goes for all potential cellar-dwellers.

Specific to the Orioles, GM Mike Elias made clear early in the offseason what his priority number one would be: pitching depth. Elias found himself repeatedly scouring other organizations in 2019 for low-cost pitching to stanch the bleeding, and he didn’t want the O’s to be in that position again. Rushing minor-league talent to fill the void is not a palatable option for Elias. His offseason focus wasn’t so much about building a talent base in the majors as it was about protecting the future talent from the ill effects of hurried development. In that very-limited scope, Elias’ plan is sound. So while fans might not get goose bumps over the Orioles’ new arms, in this context, Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc are legitimate gets.

Milone has pitched in the majors in every season since 2011, and he very well might lead the majors in earned travel miles over that span. After making his debut with the Nationals, Milone pitched for the A’s for 2 1/2 years and Twins for 2 1/2 years, ably filling a rotation slot with a 4.14 ERA/4.36 FIP. 2017 was less kind as he produced lackluster results with the Brewers and Mets before taking a second turn with the Nats in 2018. Last season, however, Milone turned back the clock a tad, providing 111 2/3 innings of 4.76 ERA/5.00 FIP ball for the Mariners. Similar production would suit the Orioles’ needs just fine in 2020, especially under the conditions of a shortened season. It’s pretty darn close to a lateral move from, say, Aaron Brooks, one of last season’s stopgaps, but important nonetheless for the pitching-poor Orioles.

LeBlanc has a longer track record, but of similar shape and sound to Milone’s career. LeBlanc started his career with the Padres from 2008 to 2011. From there he went to the Marlins to the Astros, before boomeranging in 2014 from the Angels to the Yankees and back to the Angels again in the span of the 2014 season. He missed all of 2015, rehabbed with the Blue Jays’ Triple-A team in 2016 before reappearing in the majors for the Mariners and Pirates. “Boomerang” LeBlanc returned to the Mariners in 2018, where he enjoyed a semblance of stability for a pair of seasons, going 15-12 with a 4.57 ERA/4.80 FIP across 283 1/3 innings.

No, LeBlanc, 35, and Milone, 33, aren’t the same pitcher, but you’d be forgiven for getting them confused. 4.46 ERA to 4.47 ERA, 4.68 FIP to 4.58 FIP, 6.6 K/9 to 6.7 K/9. Both are among the absolute softest-tossers in the league, with Milone’s fastball averaging 87.1 mph, while LeBlanc, according to Statcast, has a “heater” that averages 86.3 mph (though he only throws it 5.7% of the time). Here’s a fun fact: LeBlanc appears in the 0th percentile for fastball velocity. Call it a case of baseball rubbernecking, but I personally would love to see a rotation with Milone, LeBlanc, and John Means, whose 91.7 mph fastball may look downright Johnsonian in comparison.

Whether either or both makes the team, let alone the rotation, is still very much in doubt (before the coronavirus craziness, MASN’s Roch Kubatko thought LeBlanc a lock to make the roster). Fellow newcomer Kohl Stewart might be a safer bet to line up behind Means, Alex Cobb and Asher Wojciechowski – though not because of his track record. Stewart comes from sturdier prospect stock as the fourth overall pick of the 2013 draft, and he’s still just 25-years-old. He arrives in Baltimore with just 62 big league innings and a matching 4.79 ERA/FIP.

On paper, Stewart is a fine low-cost gamble for a team like the Orioles, but whether or not he’s actually worth a look will depend on what the Orioles see in him that the Twins did not. If it’s just a paper gambit, there’s not a ton in Stewart’s recent history to get all that excited about – not with just 1.31 K/BB and a long list of injuries that have sapped him of his once-strong potential. But if they can improve his pitch sequencing, there may still exist some version of top-prospect Stewart to unearth. On the whole, these arms  (Milone, LeBlanc, Stewart) were brought in specifically to keep younger arms out of the fire, but if/when the O’s tire of this approach, they have a number of hurlers in the upper minors to keep on your rookie radar.

On the offensive end, the most obvious plus from the 2019 season hit the most worrying snag possible: Trey Mancini doesn’t expect to play baseball in 2020, not after a Stage III Colon Cancer diagnosis. Read his piece in the Players’ Tribune, however, and you’ll be more encouraged about Baltimore baseball than before. Mancini hit .291/.364/.535 with 35 home runs, 106 runs and 97 RBIs in 2019. His 3.5 bWAR/3.6 fWAR (132 wRC+) places him in legitimate All-Star territory, even if that distinction was bestowed upon Means in 2019. If there’s baseball in 2020, Mancini will be missed.

But if Mancini can find the silver lining in his diagnosis, we can find it for the on-field Orioles. Playing time is a limited commodity – more so in 2020 than usual – and Mancini’s absence means ample opportunities for other Orioles to establish their credibility. Our own George Miller wrote about Anthony Santander as a potential breakout candidate, and he might be the most direct beneficiary of Mancini’s absence. But waiver claims like Pat Valaika or Andrew Velazquez could see the trickle down effect while coming off the bench. Velazquez, in particular, impressed manager Brandon Hyde and his staff this spring. DJ Stewart is another candidate to see time keeping Mancini’s spot warm, along with Dwight Smith Jr., Cedric Mullins, Ryan McKenna or Yusniel Diaz.

Ryan Mountcastle could also eventually make the big league club and see time either at first, third, DH, or the outfield. Mountcastle is in the conversation as the best power hitter in the Orioles’ system, and he might be the first of a new wave of Orioles’ prospects to get excited about. He just needs a defensive position.

On the dirt, the Orioles should feature a mostly new middle infield. Richie Martin and Jonathan Villar saw the most time up the middle in 2019. Villar finds himself in a Marlins’ uniform these days, while Martin will have to earn his keep to stay on the major league roster. Last year’s Rule 5 selection could use seasoning time in the minors, though he will compete for a roster spot. Moving on from Villar was somewhat surprising, even if his price tag was getting a little high ($8.2MM in 2020). It’s not as if the Orioles have a ton of financial commitments on the roster, and he’d been a rare plus on the offensive end (107 wRC+). Still, he has just one season left of control, and there might not have been much action on the trade market. Elias did well to at least get something in return for Villar, though Easton, a 23-year-old 14th-round draft pick from 2019, does feel like a light return.

In their stead, Jose Iglesias and Hanser Alberto figure to get most of the playing time up the middle. Iglesias brings a steady glove and consistent major league production to a lineup sorely lacking in veteran experience. But he’s also a textbook second division starter, never having produced more than 2.5 bWAR in a single season, and just as often coming up shy of the 2.0 bWAR mark. Still, his glove should help.

Alberto hit .305/.329/.422 last season, a breakout of sorts of the versatile infielder. Parts of three previous seasons with the Rangers produced a mere .192/.210/.231 line. Even the current version of Alberto isn’t a clear plus on that end (96 wRC+), not with a 2.9% BB%, even if he does put the ball in play (9.1% K%).

Alberto and Iglesias don’t have a real firm hold on their positions atop the depth chart (although it’s not as if Ramon Urias, Dilson Herrera, Stevie Wilkerson and Jose Rondon are beating the door down). Velazquez may steal some at-bats, though like Alberto, he can move around the diamond, and there’s probably room for both in 2020. Richard Urena – a waiver claim from the Blue Jays – is a semi-interesting name to keep in mind. He didn’t impress enough over his time in Toronto to keep a 40-man spot, and most of the buzz around him comes from his strong showings in rookie ball. But if the switch-hitting infielder were ever to walk at the rate he did back then, he could develop into a useful bat as he enters his prime years. For now, however, he’ll start the year with Triple-A Norfolk.

Lastly, the Orioles said goodbye to Mark Trumbo and Dylan Bundy, two of their longest-tenured players. Trumbo and the Orioles had some good times, but health issues and too much of an all-or-nothing approach limited his utility. Orioles fans can look back fondly on his first year in orange and black, however, when Trumbo hit .256/.316/.533 as the AL’s home run king. He slugged 47 long balls in 2016 as a big part of that Wild Card team. Unfortunately for both team and player, Trumbo came nowhere close to repeating that production in the three years since (.242/.295/.413 with 40 home runs across 992 plate appearances). Trumbo appeared in just 12 games in 2019. At 34-years-old, there’s a decent chance he’s played his last game in the majors.

Bundy was a much-heralded prospect coming up, appearing for the first time for two appearances as a 19-year-old way back in 2012. He didn’t reappear in the majors until 2016, and he never quite took off. He finished his Baltimore career with a 38-45 record across 127 games with a 4.67 ERA/4.75 FIP. Still just 27-years-old, Bundy will look to join a long list of former Orioles to find their groove elsewhere. Elias sent Bundy to the Angels for four pitchers. None are huge prospects, with Kyle Bradish the highest ranked, landing as the Orioles #22 prospect (per Fangraphs). Isaac Mattson lands at #31, Zach Peek at #37, while Kyle Brnovich does not rank. There’s not an obvious star there, but the Orioles need prospects of all shapes and sizes, and there’s something to be said for returning three ranked arms and a flyer for a back-end starter (*though not all outlets include the four on the O’s top-30 prospects list).

2020 Outlook

For those not paying attention, you might assume the Orioles were the worst team in baseball again in 2019. But the Tigers swooped in and took that title, leaving the 108-loss Orioles without a distinction on which to hang their hats. It’s not as flashy, but we’ll give them this: the Orioles had the 4th largest year-over-year improvement from 2018 to 2019 in the American League. Their 7-win improvement (from 47 to 54 wins) outpaced all but the Twins, White Sox, and Rangers in that department. If Manager Brandon Hyde can just quadruple that feat in 2020, why, they’d be over .500. More likely, the Orioles are ticketed for a fourth consecutive season in the AL East basement.

How would you grade the Orioles’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

Quick Hits: Rays, Franco, Gibbons, Phillies, Harper, Storen

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Wander Franco has apparently heard some of the positive chatter around his game. MLB Insider Hector Gomez tweets that Franco fully expects to have $300MM in front of him within four years. Of course, baseball economics make that a somewhat suspect goal, as there’s a decent chance Franco will not be arbitration eligible yet in that timespan, and even if he were, the largest contract given out by the Rays is the six-year, $100MM deal given to Evan Longoria. It’s hard to imagine them tripling that high overnight. And yet, if there were a guy to prompt such spending, Franco might be the one. The Rays’ 19-year-old shortstop has a hit tool that scouts are raving about in no uncertain terms. The youngster hit an absurd .318/.390/.506 in Single A last season against competition an average of more than 3 years his elder. Franco’s on-field performance thus far certainly merits bawdy talk, and in an open market, there’s no telling how much Franco might earn today. While Franco’s stock continues to appreciate, let’s check in elsewhere around the league…

  • Former Blue Jays manager John Gibbons has been vocal about his desire to get back into a major league clubhouse. He hasn’t gotten much traction, however, despite efforts on his part to dispel certain assumptions about his managerial style. Gibbons doesn’t agree with his reputation around the league, which considers him an old-school type, non-adept with analytics and better-suited to a veteran clubhouse. He had reached out to a number of teams with openings this offseason, but couldn’t even secure himself an interview. Not until the Astros’ position became available, writes The Star’s Gregor Chisholm. The role ultimately went to Dusty Baker, returning Gibbons to his current role as a scout for the Braves. Gibbons will continue to reach out to clubs with managerial openings.
  • Drew Storen has been through a lot in his baseball life, from an undefeated high school season alongside teammate Lance Lynn, to anchoring the bullpen on early Nats contenders that featured a young Bryce Harper, to Tommy John surgery in 2017 that stuck his career in the mud, writes Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philadelphia. While in camp with the Phillies this spring, Storen had a couple of major takeaways. First was how much he enjoyed playing the game. Second was how much Harper has grown as a leader since his early days with the Nats. And third was that Storen actually had a pretty decent chance of making the team. Being released by the Royals last June lit a fire for Storen, reminding him the type of urgency and intention it would take to return to the big leagues. He went to work at Driveline in an effort to build his arm enough to make a major league bullpen. Storen looked good this spring, with a 3.60 ERA over 5 innings with 5 strikeouts and zero walks.

How The Rays Traded A Top-100 Prospect For A 29-Year-Old Rookie And Came Away Winners

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Nick Anderson is not exactly a household name – and he may never be. For most of last season, Anderson was a 28-year-old rookie non-closer pitching for the Marlins (he turned 29 in July). That’s not a recipe for superstardom.

After a deadline deal brought him to Tampa Bay, Anderson did get a moment in the spotlight, striking out four of the five batters he faced in the Rays’ Wild Card Game win over the A’s. That was nothing new for Anderson, who spent most of the season racking up strikeouts at an alarming rate.

Between Tampa and Miami, Anderson appeared in 68 games in 2019, totaling 65 innings with a good-but-not-great 3.32 ERA. The peripherals speak to a much more dominant campaign for the former independent leaguer. His 2.35 FIP suggests a potential high-leverage bullpen arm, while the 2.1 fWAR he racked up confirms it: he tied for 5th overall in the majors among relievers. That puts him on the same plane with firemen/closers like Taylor Rogers, Brandon Workman, Felipe Vazquez and Aroldis Chapman. Make no mistake: Nick Anderson is an elite bullpen piece.

Credit the Marlins for picking up Anderson and turning him into a top-100 prospect in Jesus Sanchez. Sanchez may have lost some luster as a prospect, but he still landed at #96 on Fangraphs’ top-100 list. Yes, he was #47 on their updated list after starting the year at #54 in 2019, but he’s still just 22-years-old and posted a promising line of .246/.338/.446 in the homer-happy PCL after the trade. As a 21-year-old, he was more than 5 years younger than the average player in the PCL.

For their part, the Marlins acquired Anderson for Brian Schales after the Twins signed Anderson from the independent league. The 6’5″ Anderson put up good numbers in the Twins’ system from 2015 to 2017, but he started to pop in 2018, striking out 13.2 hitters per nine innings in Triple-A. At the time, the deal was most notable for bumping Derek Dietrich from the Marlins’ roster.

But Anderson became a different animal entirely during his breakout in 2019. His 15.23 K/9 ranked fourth among relievers in the majors, behind only strikeout artists Edwin Diaz, Matt Barnes and Josh Hader. After joining the Rays, Anderson went into overdrive, striking out a ridiculous 17.3 batters per nine innings. Including his Marlins work, the Minnesota native finished in the bottom 9th percentile in hard hit percentage and bottom 12th percentile in exit velocity.

In adding Anderson from the Marlins, the Rays got a guy who has a legitimate chance to be one of the most dominant relievers in all of baseball, and they have him at the league minimum for another two seasons. This is a guy the Rays can afford, which makes the deal all the more important from their perspective. There’s a reason they could include Ryne Stanek in the deal, a guy who throws 100+ mph and had a 3.40 ERA at the time. There’s a reason they could deal Emilio Pagan to the Padres after he broke out with a 2.3 bWAR season of his own in 2019. That reason is Nick Anderson.

So how does he do it? For Anderson, the recipe is fairly simple. He throws a fastball that averages 96 mph with good spin that he locates up in the zone. His “other” pitch is a curveball – but it’s one of the best in the game. By Fangraphs’ pitch values, his curveball was the second most valuable such offering from a reliever in 2019, behind only Workman’s bender. Batters managed an expected batting average of just .134 off Anderson’s curveball while registering a whiff rate of 54.2%. As of right now, Anderson’s hook is one of the deadliest weapons in the sport.

Anderson could also be in line for some positive regression this season, as opponents had a higher-than-average .349 BABIP against him in 2019. A 14.5 % HR/FB rate was also higher than Anderson had yielded at any point in the minors, and if that number comes down, Anderson could be an even more potent asset for the Rays moving forward.

His ceiling is no lower than Liam Hendriks’ amazing 2019, though Hendriks has a bit more versatility in his offspeed stuff. Hendriks, of course, was the most productive reliever in all of baseball last season, so there aren’t a ton of comps out there that make sense for him. Anderson, however, is one that does.

Offseason In Review: Seattle Mariners

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After 89 wins in 2018 didn’t sniff the postseason, the Mariners willfully took a step back in 2019. A fifth-place finish and 94 losses later, the Mariners have another development year on the horizon when/if the 2020 season gets underway. Even so, General Manager Jerry Dipoto isn’t one to sit quietly on the sidelines, and he found ways to keep himself busy this winter.

Guaranteed Contracts

Trades and Claims

Extensions

  • Signed LHP Marco Gonzalez to four-year, $30MM extension (from 2021-2024), $5MM in 2021, $5.5MM in 2022, $6.5MM in 2023, $12MM in 2024, plus $1MM signing bonus and $15MM team option for 2025
  • Signed 1B Evan White to six-year, $24MM ($1.3MM in 2020 and 2021, $1.4MM in 2022, $3MM in 2023, $7MM in 2024, $8MM in 2025, $10MM team option in 2026 plus two more club options in 2027 and 2028 for a combined $21.5MM).

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

First and foremost, let’s pour one out for King Felix. Now 34-years-old, Felix Hernandez joined the Braves as a non-roster invitee this spring, officially ending his 15-year tenure with the Mariners. Granted, we haven’t seen vintage King Felix since…maybe 2015? Regardless: 15 years, 418 starts, 6 All-Star appearances, a Cy Young award, 169 wins, 8 200-inning seasons, 25 complete games, 11 shutouts, 1 relief appearance, and tragically, zero postseason appearances. The Mariners fielded some competitive rosters over the years (85-89 wins five times from 2005 to 2019), but whenever the Mariners end their playoff drought, they’ll do so without King Felix. Still, he goes down as a Seattle great: a career 3.42 ERA/3.52 FIP, good for 50.3 bWAR/54 fWAR.

Beyond Felix, the Mariners didn’t lose anyone of terrible consequence this winter. Healy, Beckham, Milone, Tuivailala and Santana had their moments, while Vizcaino, Siri, and Anderson never appeared in a regular season game for Seattle. None should be missed long-term as the Mariners continue to set their sights on 2021 and beyond.

Meanwhile, they brought back a familiar face in Taijuan Walker. If healthy, Walker has a good chance of making the rotation. For $2MM (plus incentives), it’s a safe gamble for the M’s, and at 27-years-old, there’s still some upside if he can return to form. The M’s ought to have enough leash to give him that opportunity.

Elsewhere in the rotation, the Gonzalez extension keeps the former Cardinal at the front of the rotation for the next four seasons (maybe five) at a good rate. The 28-year-old is coming off solid back-to-back 3+ fWAR seasons, eclipsing the 200-inning mark while going 16-13 with a 3.99 ERA/4.15 FIP in 2019. He’s not the type to front a rotation, but he’s a solid arm who should continue to be an asset throughout the length of his new extension.

The rest of the rotation – and most of the roster – is a series of auditions. The M’s have a lot of interesting young players in the clubhouse, and before Trader Jerry gets set to make another push for the postseason, he’s got to sort the real McCoys from the small-sample hucksters.

In the rotation, there are two types of tryout candidates: prospects and retreads. Walker has the familiarity with the Seattle base, but Kendall Graveman may also get a chance to earn a rotation spot after spending last season rehabbing with the Cubs. Graveman knows the division well having put up a little more than two full seasons worth of solid back-end rotation work for the A’s from 2015 to 2018.

In the prospects camp, Justus Sheffield is facing a make-or-break campaign after seven so-so starts with the big league club last year. Justin Dunn also got a taste last year, and though the former Mets farmhand may not start the year in the majors, he should be a prime understudy after putting together a solid season in Double-A.

Waiver claim Nick Margevicius falls somewhere between the two camps. He struggled in the bigs last year with the Padres, posting a 6.79 ERA/5.64 FIP, but he made the jump from Double-A, and he’s still just 23-years-old. His typically pristine control slipped just enough to hurt upon reaching the big leagues, while his home-run-to-fly-ball ratio skyrocketed. He wasn’t exactly pitching in a bandbox in San Diego, but if he can limit the long ball and get his walks-per-nine back under 2 where it lived for most of his minor league career, the Mariners might have another lefty for the rotation.

Along with Yusei Kikuchi, that’s at least seven semi-interesting arms to look at, which might be more than enough in a short season (though there’s obviously a ton of uncertainty there). The other notable additions this winter were in the bullpen, where new Yoshihisa Hirano, Carl Edwards Jr., Nestor Cortes Jr. and Rule 5 pick Yohan Ramirez all have a chance to make the Opening Day roster.

Hirano struggles somewhat for the Diamondbacks in his second season stateside, but he also bumped his strikeout rate from 8.0 K/9 to 10.4 K/9 – with a lesser jump in walk rate (3.1 BB/9 to 3.7 BB/9). He could end up being a big piece of the bullpen. CJ Edwards, meanwhile, was one of the more inexplicable flameouts in 2019: 8.47 ERA/5.74 FIP across 22 appearances for the Cubs and Padres. Considering the 3+ seasons with a 3.06 ERA/3.12 FIP that Edwards put together for the Cubs from 2015 to 2018, and he makes for an intriguing flyer who is still just 28-years-old.

On the offensive end, Dipoto made two big moves. The first was trading starting catcher Omar Narvaez to the Brewers for a Competitive Round Draft Pick and 6’6″ right-hander Adam Hill. Narvaez had a good season last year (.278/.353/.460 with 22 home runs, 199 wRC+), but his other half Tom Murphy looked good too (just ask MLBTR’s own Anthony Franco). Hill has a big arm, but has to get his control under wraps. He was the Brewers #24 prospect per MLB.com at the time of the deal. The Brewers had him for just half a season after he joined the organization from the Mets in January as part of the Keon Broxton deal.

Dipoto took the opportunity to add youth, so they’ll turn over the backstop duties to Murphy and Aaron Nola’s big brother Austin. Murphy posted good numbers on both sides of the ball, and he’ll get the starting nod, but Nola figures to get plenty of playing time as well. Nola is an infield convert who plans to make catching his full-time gig in 2020. If he can stick it defensively, he seems to have enough bat for the position (.269/.342/.454 in 267 plate appearances last year). Assuming good health, the Murphy/Nola combo ought to be sufficient in 2020 while Cal Raleigh continues to work his way towards the bigs.

Dipoto’s other significant decision was giving first baseman Evan White a six-year, $24MM deal after he played the 2019 season for the Arkansas Travelers in Double-A. White, 24 on Sunday, certainly looks worth the money if he continues to perform as he did for the Travelers. White hit .293/.350/.488 with 18 home runs across 400 plate appearances in 2019. He’s the Mariners’ 4th-ranked prospect per Fangraphs, and he profiles as a complete player with plus power, speed, and defense that should help him claim (and keep) first base for the next half decade.

Granted, it’s risky to hand $24MM to a kid who’s totaled 4 games above Double-A, but Dipoto secured significant upside with this deal, which includes three option years for an additional $31.5MM. If White turns into the player Dipoto suspects, they’ll have him for the next 9 seasons at an AAV of $6.17MM. Also, they can now start White on the major league roster without manipulating his service clock (if they deem him ready). First base certainly isn’t thought of as a core position these days, but core players  routinely make their homes there (Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Paul Goldschmidt, etc.), and while White has a lot to prove before qualifying to break bread with that trio, the Mariner brass saw enough to write his name on the lineup card in pen.

If there was a surprise this winter from Trader Jerry, it’s that he didn’t find a way to move more of his remaining veterans. Kyle Seager and Dee Gordon would figure to be the first to move in 2020 if they can establish any value. Unfortunately, Gordon doesn’t have any at present (nor much of a path to establishing some), and Seager’s price tag all but nullifies any value he might have accrued during a bounce-back .239/.321/.468, 110 wRC+ 2019 season. The eldest Seager bounced around the trade papers this winter in regards to hot corner openings in the NL East, but he’s owed $19.5MM in 2020, $18.5MM in 2021, and if he were dealt, a $15MM club option for 2022 becomes a player option. The option clause makes Seager difficult to deal, and the Mariners like his makeup, so it seems as likely as anything that he’ll play out the remainder of his deal in T-Mobile Park.

Other veterans like Mallex Smith and Daniel Vogelbach are young enough to be a part of the next Seattle contender, but more than that, they don’t carry much trade value at present. Vogelbach, 27, finished last season with 30 home runs and a palatable 111 wRC+. But he’s not a fielder, and he’s not a runner, and even though he’s not even arb eligible until 2022, there’s not a lot of need for his skill set around the league. Smith, 27 in May, has shown promise at times in his career, but as MLBTR’s own Connor Byrne wrote about in a recent post entitled “Seattle’s Struggling Center Fielder“…well, the title pretty much tells the tale (and if not, Connor can take you the rest of the way).

Mitch Haniger is the guy toeing the line here, as the Mariners’ have long-lauded his character and the total package he brings to the table, but as a 29-year-old corner outfielder, it’s fair to wonder if his contributions would better serve a contender. A slew of injuries has kept that question on the back-burner, however, as there’s no timetable for his return after undergoing a pair of offseason surgeries.

Finding core players to play alongside White will be priority number one for Scott Servais and company whenever play resumes. Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic are two big-time prospects  atop the M’s vision board, but they’re both probably a year or maybe more away. In the meantime, Servais and Dipoto will keep a daily eye on a whole host of young position players who may or may not become crucial parts of their future. Among those looking to secure their long-term place: Shed Long, Jake Fraley, J.P. Crawford, Kyle Lewis, Braden Bishop, and to a lesser extend, guys like Tim Lopes and Donovan Walton. Some vets were brought in to compete – CarGo, Cody Anderson, Wei-Yin Chen, among others – but it’s looking increasingly likely that the Mariners will ride the youth wave in 2020.

2020 Outlook

If a couple from the Long/Fraley/Crawford/Lewis bucket can establish themselves – along with Sheffield and/or Dunn in the rotation – then the Mariners will count 2020 as a success. They could even set themselves up as a real team of interest heading into 2021. Conditions for development aren’t ideal, but the biggest question facing the M’s might be how much they can learn about their young players in a potentially shortened season. Speculation on that front will have to wait until we know more. For now, we’ll have to settle for grading the Mariners’ winter work.

How would you grade the Mariners’ offseason moves?  (Link for app users.)

The Mark Grace Decade Award

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For many years, my go-to baseball trivia question was this: who led the 1990s in hits? 

I won’t bury the lede any further: The answer is Mark Grace. Grace never hit 20 home runs in a season despite being a middle-of-the-order bat, and he spent most of his career on lackluster Cubs teams. He was a three-time All-Star and four-time Gold Glove winner who never finished higher than thirteenth in MVP voting. He was a very good baseball player. But I think it’s safe to say that he’s not the first name that comes to mind when looking for the decade-leader in hits. 

Growing up, Grace was my favorite player, but that’s only part of why I loved this trivia question. In my mind, Grace epitomized something special about the game. He played smart and with obvious boyhood joy. He could hit .300 falling asleep, and though he wasn’t known for his power, he held his own – in his words – by “turning triples into doubles” (he also led the nineties in doubles). #17 wasn’t a superstar to the world (he didn’t hit home runs, he didn’t run well, and he played for the lovable loser version of the Cubs), but Grace made the most of his physical abilities and let his personality shine through. And ah yes, he had more hits in the nineties than Tony Gwynn, Robby Alomar, Barry Bonds, Ken Griffey Jr., Sammy Sosa, Cal Ripken Jr.…or anyone else.

That he accomplished this feat speaks to the randomness and the breadth of the game of baseball. Only a player who played in every season of the decade is likely to lead all major leaguers in hits (see the exception to this rule later). And yet, what a tremendous accomplishment! The juxtaposition of those two thoughts encapsulates so much of what makes baseball unique. Timing is a huge factor in determining what becomes part of the baseball zeitgeist, and yet, there’s an ocean of information beneath the surface of any given statistical achievement. 

Not to date myself, but there’s been two full decades since Grace led the nineties in hits! Granted, hits are no longer the be all and end all of offensive production. Not anywhere close. But they’re still important. Leading the league in hits over a decade is more trivia than player analysis, but it’s still an accomplishment that shines a light on a particular style of hitter. So without further ado, I thought it would be a fun exercise to see who wins the Mark Grace Award for leading a decade in hits.

2010-2019

  1. Robinson Cano (1,695)
  2. Nick Markakis (1,651)
  3. Adam Jones (1,647)
  4. Starlin Castro (1,617)
  5. Miguel Cabrera (1,595)
  6. Elvis Andrus (1,595)

Kicking it off, this is not the list I expected for our most recent decade. Cano taking the title is impressive, if not surprising for the career .302 hitter, because he only appeared in 107 games this last season and only 80 games the year before that. Taking the crown regardless speaks to how difficult it is in this day and age to stay in the game. Kudos to the the rest of the list as well, which provides a real working class crew (Miggy aside). Cano is also, for what it’s worth, the least productive hits king in any decade since the war-torn forties when the Indians’ Lou Boudreau took home the title with 1,578 hits.

2000-2009

  1. Ichiro Suzuki (2,030)
  2. Derek Jeter (1,940)
  3. Miguel Tejada (1,860)
  4. Todd Helton (1,756)
  5. Vladimir Guerrero (1,751)

Tejada is the only name on this list that might take more than a couple of guesses. Of course, the most impressive feat here is that Ichiro managed to chalk up more than 2,000 hits in only 9 seasons.

1990-1999

  1. Mark Grace (1,754)
  2. Rafael Palmiero (1,747)
  3. Craig Biggio (1,728)
  4. Tony Gwynn (1,713)
  5. Roberto Alomar (1,678)

Biggio or Gwynn probably would have been my guess had I not known the answer beforehand. Biggio led the league in plate appearances in 5 seasons (’92, ’95, ’97,’98,’99), but he hit “only” .297 for the decade (versus .310 for Grace). Gwynn hit .344 in the nineties, but only managed to appear in more than 140 games twice.

1980-1989

  1. Robin Yount (1,731)
  2. Eddie Murray (1,642)
  3. Willie Wilson (1,639)
  4. Wade Boggs (1,597)
  5. Dale Murphy (1,553)

Willie Wilson gave himself a good head start with 230 hits in 1980, but Yount and Murray managed to make up the difference before the end of the eighties. The Royals’ great did crush the competition for most triples in the decade, however, with 115 (Yount was second with 83).

1970-1979 

  1. Pete Rose (2,045)
  2. Rod Carew (1,787)
  3. Al Oliver (1,686)
  4. Lou Brock (1,617)
  5. Bobby Bonds (1,565)

No surprises here, with Rose and Carew atop the list.

1960-1969

  1. Roberto Clemente (1,877)
  2. Hank Aaron (1,819)
  3. Vada Pinson (1,776)
  4. Maury Wills (1,744)
  5. Brooks Robinson (1,692)

For the decade, Clemente hit .328/.375/.501. He took the batting crown four times and hit over .350 twice (1961: .351 BA, 1967: .357 BA).

1950-1959

  1. Richie Ashburn (1,875)
  2. Nellie Fox (1,837)
  3. Stan Musial (1,771)
  4. Alvin Dark (1,675)
  5. Duke Snider (1,605)

Integration wasn’t exactly a comprehensive process from the jump when Jackie Robinson first appeared for the Brooklyn Dodgers in 1947, so we’ll make the fifties the last decade. All in all, Pete Rose unsurprisingly was the most prolific hits leader in any decade with 2,045 knocks in the 70s, but I’m not sure there’s a more impressive name on there than Ichiro, whose wizardy with the bat came up just 15 hits shy of Rose in just 9 seasons from 2001 to 2010.

Otherwise, definitely some names you might have expected (Rose, Young, Clemente), but it’s not as if a 3,000 hit king rules every decade. Ashburn, like Grace, hit the league at the perfect time to snag this award, as his career spanned from 1948 to 1962. He joins Grace and Cano as the non-3000 hit players to lead a decade in hits (though Cano still has an outside shot to get there). For their careers, Grace takes the distinction as the player with the least career hits to lead a decade in the category.

Who else on these list surprises you? Al Dark? Elvis Andrus? Who did you expect? Let’s hear your takes in the comments!

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