Rosenthal And Drellich: MLB Season Unlikely To Begin Before May
Commissioner Rob Manfred met with Tony Clark of the Players’ Union to discuss many of the potential issues sure to arise as a result of the coronavirus shutdown. Though many particulars of the 2020 season are being taken into consideration, no decision is expected in the near-term about the official start to the 2020 season. That said, the delay is expected to continue until May at the earliest, per Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich of The Athletic. Still, no official announcement has been made, nor is there likely to be any official decisions made until enough time has passed to better quantify containment of the virus.
In the meantime, the Commissioner’s office is working with Clark and the MLBPA to hammer out a number of issues, including player pay. A delayed season, of course, brings all manner of complication. A truncated season, however, takes those complications to the next level, specifically in regards to service time and how it affects player salaries.
There was some concern that if players left their spring facilities, the MLB would be in a better position to suspend their pay, though those concerns appear to be, per Rosenthal and Drellich, “ill-formed.” The more pertinent question, for now, asks what is the safest route to moving forward and preparing for the eventual 2020 season? Opinions are split right now about whether players are better served staying in camp with their clubs and all the resources, medical and otherwise, at their disposal therein, or whether players should take part in the the broadly-accepted strategy of social distancing. For now, teams and players continue to make their decisions on an individual basis.
Scott Boras Speaks On Players Staying In Spring Camp
Baseball’s preeminent player agent is rarely shy about sharing his opinions, but in his latest comments, he’s making an extra effort to not offer anyone advice when it comes to COVID-19.
But he still has opinions. Scott Boras believes players are best-suited staying in camp and working out in the semi-isolation of their squads, utilizing the healthcare options available therein, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post.
Speaking further on the issue, Sherman quotes Boras as saying, “Players are evaluated daily and have immediate treatment access. This process over the month is proven effective versus the outside world as there are no reported cases [of coronavirus among major leaguers]. … The key to low probability of the virus is to be in isolated areas. But the key in treatment is early detection and treatment. And players are getting daily health care, they are getting daily diagnostics. They are in one of the best isolation situations when it comes to managing this outbreak.”
Many players evidently agree with Boras, as the Yankees, Padres and Tigers are among those teams that have mostly decided to stay put for now. MASN’s Mark Zuckerman reports that the Nationals are largely staying put, while the Reds and Cardinals are airing on the side of breaking up camp. Players across the board have been told that they are allowed to return to their homes should they so choose.
Justin Verlander Undergoes MRI Following Triceps Injury
March 9: Verlander underwent an MRI to evaluate the issue, tweets Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, but the Astros have yet to receive the results.
March 8, 2:50pm: Dusty Baker shed some light on Verlander’s exit, saying he experienced right triceps soreness, per McTaggart. His removal was precautionary.
2:06pm: Justin Verlander exited his spring start two innings early today, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. He threw two scoreless innings, but left to undergo medical testing.
It’s unclear at this time what particular issue Verlander is dealing with, though he’s been plagued with a strained right groin throughout spring training. Neither Verlander nor the Astros gave any indication as to the severity of Verlander’s discomfort. Presumably, an update will be provided shortly.
Among the many issues that could derail the Astros 2020 season, any hiccups at the top of the rotation might be the most worrying. With a host of less-established candidates filling the void at the back end of the rotation, Verlander and co-ace Zack Greinke are the only guaranteed quality starters currently employed in Houston. Lance McCullers Jr. slots in as the number three, but the native Floridian is coming off a lost 2019, and he’s never made more than 22 starts in a season.
Verlander’s injury may turn out to be nothing, but this is the risk in pinning rotation stability on a 37-year-old Verlander and 36-year-old Greinke. Granted, Verlander and Greinke show no signs of slowing down after combining for 13.3 pitching bWAR in 2019, and given the amount of adversity sure to confront the 2020 Astros, a healthy Verlander and Greinke still provide the surest chance to rise above.
Willie Calhoun Suffers Fractured Jaw
6:56PM: Calhoun has suffered a fracture of his jaw, Rangers executive VP of communications John Blake writes (via Twitter). The outfielder will undergo further examination tomorrow.
3:57PM: Rangers outfielder Willie Calhoun was hit in the mouth with a 95mph fastball from the Dodgers’ Julio Urias and taken to the hospital today, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News, Ken Gurnick of MLB.com, and others. Calhoun did get up before being carted off the field.
Calhoun, of course, is a former Dodgers farmhand who was sent to Texas in the Yu Darvish trade. He established himself as an offensive force in 337 plate appearances last year, hitting .269/.323/.524 with 21 home runs (110 wRC+).
Finding a defensive position has always been the task challenging Calhoun’s professional longevity. He made 71 starts in left field for the Rangers in 2019, though defensive metrics weren’t in love with his performance there (-7 DRS, -5.1 UZR). He came up as an infielder, though it seems more likely he’d move further down the defensive spectrum than back up it.
We will check back in with updates on Calhoun’s condition as they arrive. Calhoun did appear to get hit directly in the mouth, though he never lost consciousness. The injury is significant enough that manager Chris Woodward has left the yard to be with Calhoun at the hospital, per Grant.
Quick Hits: COVID-19, Red Sox, Catching, Rays, Meadows Extension Talks
Commissioner Rob Manfred has a conference call planned with MLB owners on Monday to discuss the coronavirus, but all indications point to the season opening as planned, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and Evan Drellich. MLB has been in contact with the CDC, and each team has a specified point person in charge of their specific situations. Locker room protocol across the North American sports landscape has been adjusted to help protect players from COVID-19, and fan access to players has also been limited as a precaution (though some players have prepared pre-signed autographs for fans at spring games). In Italy, all sporting events are planned to move forward without fans present, and the NBA has begun preparations for such a circumstance as well. As of right now, MLB plans to have fans present as the regular season kicks off at the end of March, but a lot can obviously change over the next three weeks.
- In non-virus news, catchers around the league are giving umpires a better view to call balls and strikes by receiving from a knee instead of the traditional crouch, per Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. Christian Vazquez employed the stance for the Red Sox some last year, and the returns were good. He finished fifth in statcast’s Runs from Extra Strikes metric, trailing only Roberto Perez, Yasmani Grandal, Tyler Flowers and Austin Hedges, the latter of whom led the field by a substantial margin. Red Sox interim manager Ron Roenicke notes that receiving from a knee makes it tougher to block pitches, but the premium placed on stealing strikes makes the tradeoff worth it on the whole.
- In contract news, the Rays and Austin Meadows have begun preliminary discussions about a potential extension, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Both sides are open to the possibility, though talks have not yet reached the exchange-of-numbers stage. After a monster 2019, Meadows won co-MVP honors for the team and proved himself a key offensive cog moving forward. Meadows slashed .291/.364/.558 with 33 home runs and 89 RBIs (142 wRC+) in 2019. Locking up the soon-to-be 25-year-old would certainly be a boon for an organization ever-mindful of its financial limitations.
NL Notes: Castellanos, Cubs, Chatwood, Mills, Nats, Ross, Voth
Nicholas Castellanos spoke eloquently about his experience dealing with the Cubs this offseason – which is to say, he experience not dealing with them. And yet, the Cincinnati Red appears to harbor no ill will towards the Cubs. Instead, he offered nuanced insight and thoughtful considerations about the challenges facing ownership, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. Said Castellanos, “I don’t know the intricacies of owning a team. The only thing I can speak on when it comes to the Cubs is what a tremendous and incredible soul that organization has when it has life. The only thing I would care about if I owned the Cubs would be to give it as much life as possible. It’s hard, I don’t know what it’s like to own a business.” Polite and diplomatic as he may be, Castellanos does offer an implicit criticism of a Cubs organization that has exhibited, shall we say, less “life” than in years past. Though Castellanos seems to understand and accept why the Cubs made no contact with him after his exit interview, he did wonder broadly about the lack of interest from teams league-wide. Let’s check in on some fifth starter races..
- Cubs’ manager David Ross gives Tyler Chatwood the lead in the race for the Cubs’ fifth starter role, tweets MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian. Alec Mills is also a contender for the role, though whoever wins the spot on opening day is likely to keep it until performance dictates otherwise. Ross has no interest in modernizing his approach to the fifth starter role, preferring to let players earn a role in spring training and enter the season thusly, per Bastian. Mills is out of options, but he’s a heavy favorite to land a bullpen spot if he can’t unseat Chatwood for the rotation.
- Joe Ross has pole position to break camp as the fifth starter for the World Champion Washington Nationals, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Austin Voth has pitched well enough to provide a legitimate challenge, but given that both players are likely to make the team, Ross has the track record to give him an edge. He also has the gaudy bullpen ERA to suggest he’s best utilized in the rotation. It’s fair to question the significance of rotation/bullpen splits, but few can boast a Jekyll-and-Hyde routine like Ross’ 2019. The 26-year-old put up an 11.17 ERA over 19 1/3 innings as a reliever, only to counter with a 3.02 ERA in 44 2/3 innings as a starter during the second half. Voth, meanwhile, is more of a late-bloomer at age-27, and he has yet to be tested in a relief capacity. Since making his professional debut in 2013, he has just 3 minor league relief appearances to go with 3 major league appearances out of the pen. Since the right-hander is out of options (as is Ross), Voth is likely to get his first real taste of bullpen life in 2020.
Orioles Claim Hector Velazquez
The Baltimore Orioles added Hector Velazquez to their roster today, claiming the right-hander off waivers from the Boston Red Sox, tweets Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. The Orioles PR department has confirmed the move. The Red Sox DFA’ed Velazquez on March 5.
Velazquez, 31, spent the last couple of seasons as a swingman in Boston. After a solid season as a starter in 2017 for for the Pawtucket Red Sox, he made his big league with 8 appearances spread out throughout the year. The total product got Velazquez more involved in the Red Sox’ 2018 title run as he threw 85 innings, appeared in 47 games, and finished with a 3.18 ERA/4.15 FIP. Outside of a couple of stints on the IL, Velazquez spent most of 2018 on the major league roster.
Last season was more of an up-and-down year for Velazquez both in terms of performance and his relationship to Triple-A. The sinkerballer made 34 total appearances for the Red Sox, starting 8 games for the second consecutive season, and finishing with a 5.43 ERA/4.74 FIP. Somewhat nontraditionally, Velazquez threw more changeups in 2019 than any other offering, though on the whole, he invokes a relatively egalitarian mix of sinkers, changeups, fastballs and sliders.
The Orioles will add him to their long relief mix, tweets MASN’s Roch Kubatko. It’s been an offseason-long goal for the Orioles to add pitching depth so as to avoid rushing naive arms to the majors.
Camp Battles: Astros’ 26th Man
The Astros final roster spot will be a two-man showdown between Myles Straw and Garrett Stubbs, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Of course, this particular “camp battle” has as much to do with the pieces around the players as the players themselves. For that matter, it may come down to a conversation between Dusty Baker and new GM James Click. The two are likely still developing a cohesive philosophy when it comes to roster construction. That they have an extra roster spot in the 26th man this season ought to help smooth the waters. Still, there’s a decision to be made here, and as with many clubs, the decision may come down to just how many catchers they want to have on the roster. Let’s take a deeper dive into the candidates.
- One would think that Myles Straw is the frontrunner to make the opening day roster. Without him, the Astros don’t have a natural backup for George Springer in center. With Jake Marisnick now on the Mets, Straw is the likeliest candidate to fill that void as a pinch-runner and late-game defensive replacement. Josh Reddick would probably fill that role as a backup were Straw not to make the team, though it would be surprising if that were the case for the entire season. Even if Straw doesn’t make the cut, expect him to occupy a roster spot at times throughout the season.
- Stubbs, 26, has spent the last two seasons in Triple-A, and he’s certainly ready enough to get some time as a backup in 2020. He has a good approach at the plate, will take his walks and doesn’t strike out (16.2% K-rate last season). He’s reliable enough defensively, but it’s hard to see where the Astros would benefit from rostering a third catcher. Martin Maldonado will be the primary starter, and he could be used as a defense replacement in games he doesn’t start. On the other hand, they may risk burning their bench by pinch-hitting for Maldonado in spots. Still, Dustin Garneau is on hand for those occasions. Garneau has some power potential, but Kyle Tucker or Josh Reddick will be the first lefty bat off the bench, while Aledmys Diaz will be the guy from the right side. One backup catcher ought to suffice.
- The sleeper candidate here is Abraham Toro. He debuted last season with a .218/.303/.385 line over a mere 85 plate appearances. Toro offers a quality combination of speed/power and the ability to play either corner in the infield as well as second base in a pinch. He’s a switch-hitter, which provides some utility beyond the overlapping skillset he shares with Diaz or Yuli Gurriel, but he also has options available. The Astros, therefore, will feel no pressure to keep him on the major league roster. That said, Toro gained some popularity last season, a quality the Astros are short on these days. Having a young player that fans can root for unequivocally may get Toro an extra look.
We’re assuming here, of course, that the Astros will go with an eight-man bullpen. That’s hardly a foregone conclusion, though it’s the likeliest result in the case of most teams, and given that the Astros have some uncertainty at the back end of their rotation, they may enjoy having an extra arm to leverage until the number four and five starters establish some consistency.
NL Notes: Cubs, Bryant, Heyward, Reds, Mahle, Nationals, Castro
The Cubs aren’t yet sure how David Ross‘ style as a tactician will differ from his predecessor, but Ross’ decisions are starting to trickle in and lend some clarity to the Cubs’ 2020 season. For starters, Kris Bryant as the leadoff man does not feel like an experiment – it’s happening. Ross likes Bryant’s speed and baserunning ability, and to his credit, there’s really nothing to dislike about Bryant in the leadoff spot. It does create questions further down the order, but coming off a season in which their leadoff men were last in the league with a .294 OBP, that’s a tradeoff they’re willing to make, per Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune. The other major decision passed down today was that Jason Heyward would remain in right field as often as possible. Given Heyward’s tremendous defensive abilities and a wRC+ that’s been at league average over the last two years, and it makes some sense to profile Heyward as a centerfielder. He’s more comfortable in right, however, and his glove does play as a genuine asset there. Let’s check in on a couple other National League clubs…
- Tyler Mahle will be more than okay coming out of the bullpen for the Reds if that means staying in the big leagues, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. In the rotation last year, Mahle went 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA/4.66 FIP across 129 2/3 innings in 25 starts. According to Mahle, his biggest problem was the lack of an effective put away breaking ball, something he’s working on by adding a slider. There might be something to Mahle’s analysis, as his curveball induced a 26.6 whiff%. More to the point might be his 7.11 ERA against left-handed hitters, though it’s part and parcel of the same issue, likely.
- Starlin Castro is energized by the opportunity to play for a contender again, per Sam Fortier of the Washington Post. Between the changes that Castro made to his approach in the second half of last year, and his excitement over playing in games of consequence again, the Nationals are finding reasons to believe in Castro’s potential to make up for some of the offense lost in the wake of Anthony Rendon‘s departure. Castro’s a difficult player to pin down in terms of ability, but he is a four-time All-Star entering his age-30 season, and before the terms of his current two-year deal run out, he may even cross the 2,000 hit threshold.
Latest On Rockies’ Bullpen Outlook
That Wade Davis is likely to be named the Rockies’ closer in and of itself isn’t shocking. Davis is one of the most accomplished closers of this era, changing the game with an incomparable three-year run of dominance with the Royals from 2014 to 2016. Over that span, Davis appeared in 185 contests, posting a 1.18 ERA/1.86 FIP. He gave up just three home runs in that time, and along with running mates Greg Holland and Kelvin Herrera, showcased the potential for an uber-dominant bullpen to undergird a champion. Whether that unit was truly transcendent is a debate for another day, but they did, at the very least, help drive the transformation of bullpen usage that, in part, defines our current era of baseball.
And yet, Davis wasn’t the nominal closer on those Royals teams. Not until an injury to Holland forced him into the role. But he is, once again, the nominal closer for the Colorado Rockies despite the 8.65 ERA he posted in 50 games last season, per MLB.com’s Thomas Harding.
In the Rockies’ defense, putting Davis back into the closer role allows manager Bud Black to deploy Scott Oberg or Jairo Diaz in higher-leverage situations, though there are other ways to protect Davis, should that be the goal. Davis’ trajectory should be a fun one to track throughout the season, as it’s hard to imagine many more opportunities to watch a team roll it back after their closer posted an ERA over 8.00.
Also to consider, Davis is making a chunky $17MM this season. The Rockies could be free of their obligation to Davis with a $1MM buyout prior to 2021. Regardless, they’re gonna make every effort to put their investment to good use this season.