How Good Was Dante Bichette?
Before he became the third-most-famous dad of a Toronto Blue Jays starting infielder, Dante Bichette held a similar title in a different barbershop quartet: the Blake Street Bombers. In both groups, Bichette fits comfortably in the George Harrison role as the love-able third cog, the character actor capable of carrying a film (say, as the 3-hole hitter), but nonetheless of tertiary relevance after two obviously-more-famous counterparts (Craig Biggio and Vlad Guerrero, Paul and John, Larry Walker and Andres Galarraga). Along with Vinny Castilla (who rightly-or-wrongly has fallen into the Ringo role in the Blake Street Bombers), Bichette helped the Rockies to their first playoff appearance in franchise history (1995) and became an indelible part of Colorado baseball history.
Bichette wasn’t destined for stardom, necessarily. He capitalized with a case of perfect time, perfect place (emphasis on place, as Coors Field in ’95 wasn’t a bad place to take your home hacks). 1995 wasn’t Bichette’s first season as a productive regular, nor was it his best by WAR, but it was his loudest: .340/.364/.620 while leading the league with 40 home runs and 128 RBIs.
It was a feel-good story for both Bichette and the Rockies, the former of whom had found belated stardom at the age of 31, and for the latter, as the organization enjoyed its first taste of success as an MLB franchise. Don Baylor‘s club didn’t set the world aflame, but they did scratch out a 77-67 record, good enough to capture the newly instituted Wild Card slot to make the National League playoffs. The Rockies would fall to the Braves in four games and fail to reach the playoffs for a second time in the era of the Blake Street Bombers, however. They would not return to the playoffs until capturing the Wild Card in 2007, long after Bichette’s departure following the 1999 season.
As for Bichette, 1995 wasn’t all that anomalous. He would make the All-Star team and earn MVP votes in four out of five seasons from 1994 to 1999 (including a second-place finish in ’95). Over that five-year stretch, Bichette had an overall slash line of .320/.352/.542 while slugging 146 of his 274 career home runs. All of the above considering, and Bichette looks like a classic short-peak superstar, maybe even worthy of consideration for the colloquial hall-of-very-good.
But the story changes when you get a look at his Wins Above Replacement totals. For his career, Bichette amassed a surprisingly meager total of just 5.7 bWAR across 14 seasons. There were 18 position players with at least 5.7 bWAR in 2019 alone. By measure of fWAR, Bichette was slightly better, putting up a total 8.9 fWAR. In other words, he wasn’t very good? Frankly, it’s difficult to view Bichette’s WAR totals in context. His era brings no measure of complications, but we’d normally worry about that era from an inflation standpoint. Looking at his fellow Bombers, Castilla managed 19.4 bWAR, which matches more closely to his standing in the baseball zeitgeist. Galarraga’s numbers are lower than what one might expect for the Big Cat (31.7 bWAR), but they still point to a solid career. Larry Walker was the best of the Colorado bunch, putting up a Hall-worthy 72.7 bWAR, for which he was finally inducted into the Hall of Fame this year.
Of course, nobody was looking at Wins Above Replacement when Bichette was a player. Given his offensive output, it’s still not surprising he made four All-Star teams. His career WAR numbers actually undersell his peak abilities as a player, largely because his overall numbers were hampered by three seasons of negative bWAR, including a disastrous -2.3 bWAR/-2.1 fWAR campaign in his final season with the Rockies in 1999. Bichette’s offensive output was down that season, but it still wasn’t bad: .298/.354/.541 with 34 home runs and 133 RBIs. That hardly looks like a -2.3 WAR season – and yet – it was (the MLB average slash line that season was .267/.338/.417).
Needless to say, Bichette was not a standout defender or baserunner. He was clocked for -34 runs from fielding that season along with -5 runs from baserunning per baseball-reference. He somehow made 13 errors as a left fielder that year (while also collecting 17 outfield assists). The last time an outfielder committed double-digit error totals was Ian Desmond in 2016 with the Rangers, his first season in the outfield as a converted shortstop. It’s not so surprising, then, that Bichette’s offensive numbers don’t buoy the other parts of his game to better bloat those WAR totals. Had Bichette played in the American League where he could have been utilized as a designated hitter, perhaps his career numbers would have a slightly different shape than they do now. Of course, the same could be said for if he’s played his peak seasons for a different franchise.
Regardless, Bichette found a time and a place to make an impact on the game. Plus, his contribution continues in the form of his son, Bo Bichette, who put up 2.3 bWAR as a 21-year-old for the Blue Jays last year. Bo looks astoundingly like his father even down to the haircut, but he brings a more well-rounded game to Toronto’s infield. At this rate, Bo will eclipse his dad’s bWAR total before the midpoint of his age-23 season.
Remember When The White Sox Threw Four Consecutive Complete Games To Win The Pennant?
The 2005 Chicago White Sox get a bum deal as far as legacies are concerned. When they ended their 87-year championship drought by sweeping the Astros, they did so on the heels of the Red Sox breaking their own curse in dramatic fashion just a year before. Not only were the ChiSox overshadowed preemptively by Boston, but their victory left the crosstown Cubs with the lone multi-generational curse, which instantly drew more attention than even the Sox’ victory. Needless to say, Southsiders have long had a much-deserved chip on their shoulder as the less-heralded of the two Chicago baseball clubs.
The 2005 White Sox deserved more attention than they got, but not just because of their own broken curse. Ozzie Guillen’s club accomplished an amazing feat just in getting to the World Series, one that we may never see again. After dropping game one of the ALCS to Vlad Guerrero Sr. and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, the White Sox won the American League pennant behind four consecutive complete games.
There were zero complete games thrown in the 2019 playoffs. Not a one. There weren’t any in 2018 either. We got one in 2017 (Justin Verlander) and 3 in 2016 (though two of those were in losses where the starter only went 8 innings to get the CG). Not only did the 2005 White Sox rattle off eight straight wins to clinch the World Series, but after taking that game 1 loss (their only loss of the postseason), they strung together four straight complete games from this unlikely quartet: Mark Buehrle, Jon Garland, Freddy Garcia, and Jose Contreras.
It’s not impossible that we’ll see this kind of feat again. I mean, hey, Deacon Phillippe threw five complete games in a single postseason. For the 1903 Pittsburgh Pirates. But as far as this century is concerned, Ozzie Guillen’s likely to hold the record for fewest pitching changes in a postseason series.
Speaking of Guillen, you gotta give the guy props for the trust he had in his starting staff. Not only did he ride his starters for all four wins, but not a one of them put up a shutout. There were trials. There were tribulations. But either Guillen forgot the extension for the bullpen phone, or he believed in his horses. It’s not as if this was all that long ago and complete games were a dime a dozen. The four thrown by the White Sox in the ALCS were the only complete games thrown that postseason. There was just one complete game thrown in the playoffs the year before and none the year after. This was a feat. If it were the Red Sox or the Cubs, we’d probably talk about it a lot more.
So let’s take a moment to appreciate the run.
In terms of all-time rotations, Buehrle/Garland/Garcia/Contreras wasn’t exactly Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz/Avery. But it was a solid group who put together a remarkable run. These four starters not only came together at the perfect time, but at the perfect time in their individual careers.
Buehrle had the best career of the four as the long-time ace of the Southsiders, but his chief abilities included otherworldly defense and durability. The soft-tossing lefty led the AL in innings pitched in both 2004 and 2005. He put up 200-inning seasons for 14 consecutive years, falling short of the line only twice: his rookie season when he made just 3 starts and totaled 51 1/3 innings, and his final season in the majors, when at age 36 he put up “just” 198 2/3 innings for the Blue Jays (while still leading the majors with four complete games). Buehrle only once cracked the top-5 in Cy Young voting, but he was the definition of a reliable workhorse, and in limiting the Angels to just 5 hits and no walks over a tidy 99 pitches, he set the tone for the 2005 White Sox. The Sox won game 2 behind Buehrle 2-1, and they wouldn’t look back.
Jon Garland struggled to stay healthy for much of his career, but he was peaking in 2005. The 25-year-old, hulking right-hander won 18 games that season with a 3.50 ERA, earning his lone All-Star appearance. He threw three complete game shutouts that season, but the amazing piece for Garland was that his game 3 complete game was his first-ever postseason appearance. Not only that, but he’d only have one more, as the game 3 starter in Houston for the World Series. Garland made the most of it, giving up 2 runs on 4 hits while striking out 7. Paul Konerko capped off a three-run first inning with a two-run shot off John Lackey, and Garland took them the rest of the way, using 118 pitches to finish off a 5-2 victory and put the White Sox up 2-1. Garland would give the White Sox two more solid seasons in the rotation before they traded him to the Angels following 2007 for Orlando Cabrera. His run with the White Sox, particularly 2005, would easily go down as the highlight of Garland’s playing days.
The White Sox turned to Freddy Garcia in game 4, but they used the same script from the prior night. Konerko hit a 3-run homer off Ervin Santana in the first and the White Sox never trailed. Garcia had failed to capitalize on the tremendous potential he showed as a 24-year-old for the 2001 Mariners, and by 2005 his best years were already behind him. Still, the White Sox acquired him midseason the year before along with another one-time heralded prospect in Ben Davis for a package of Mike Morse, Miguel Olivo and Jeremy Reed. Garcia put up 3.9 bWAR in his first full season in Chicago, going 14-8 with a 3.87 ERA/4.06 FIP. He threw 228 innings in total, and it was probably his best season outside of Seattle.
His game 4 performance put the White Sox on the brink of the pennant, using 116 pitches while giving up 2 runs, 5 hits, and 1 walk. The Sox tacked on solo runs in each of the third, fourth, and fifth innings, and the Angels never came closer than in the bottom of the second when Garcia surrendered a walk and made an error on an infield single. But with the tying run on first and runners on the corners, Garcia coaxed a double play off the bat of Steve Finley to end the threat. Garcia went the distance and the White Sox won 8-2.
After three straight complete games to put the White Sox up on the Angels 3-1, what really was Jose Contreras to do but go out and do the same? Like Garland, 2005 and 2006 was the pinnacle of Contreras’ stateside career. The Cuban import made his MLB debut as a 31-year-old with the Yankees in 2003, but they shipped him to the White Sox after 18 disappointing starts in 2004 for Esteban Loaiza. In 2005, the 33-year-old Contreras finally posted the type of season that was expected of him after coming over from Cuba. He went 15-7 with a 3.61 ERA/4.21 FIP, good for 3.6 bWAR (second only to the 3.8 bWAR he’d put up the following season).
In many ways, Contreras was the perfect guy to wrap up this incredible run. These outings weren’t the high velocity, high spin types of outings of the current era. Contreras, like the others before him, simply put the ball over the plate and let his defense do the work. He finished with 114 pitches, 3 earned runs, 5 hits, 2 walks, and just 2 strikeouts. Only twice did he allow more than one baserunner in an inning, and 5 times he put together 1-2-3 innings (including the final 4 frames). The White Sox trailed 3-2 entering the 7th inning, but they’d tie it with a Joe Crede solo shot, then take the lead in the 8th when the Angels defense got sloppy. As for Contreras, after giving up the lead with those two runs in the sixth, he wouldn’t allow a baserunner the rest of the way.
The White Sox had some cushion in games 2-4, but there may have been cause for Guillen to let his starters go long. Dustin Hermanson (yes, Dustin Hermanson) saved 34 games for Chicago that year, but he was out of the role by the playoffs and would make just 6 more appearances in the majors. Bobby Jenks had taken over as closer in the playoffs, but he had just 6 saves and 32 appearances under his belt. Maybe Ozzie Guillen didn’t trust his bullpen, but either way, when Konerko and Aaron Roward each doubled home a run in the ninth, Guillen went back to Contreras to finish out the 6-3 victory and secure the White Sox’ first pennant since 1959. Amazingly, Guillen didn’t even have to lift a finger to do it.
Offseason In Review: Cincinnati Reds
For the second straight winter, the Cincinnati Reds committed to building a winner the old-fashioned way: by opening their pocketbook. Last winter’s additions were good first steps, but as much as they hoped to unseat the Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals, the Yasiel Puig blockbuster aimed to lure bodies through the turnstiles. This winter’s blusterous free agent spending spree, however, had all the urgency of a team earnestly on the rise. These Reds expect to compete.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Pedro Strop, RHP: one year, $1.825MM (incentives could push total value to $3.5MM)
- Nicholas Castellanos, OF: four years, $64MM (opt out after 2020 and 2021, $20MM club option for 2024)
- Wade Miley, LHP: two years, $15MM ($6MM in 2020, $8MM in 2021, $10MM club option for 2022 with $1MM buyout)
- Mike Moustakas, 2B/3B: four years, $64MM ($20MM club option for 2024)
- Shogo Akiyama, OF: three years, $21MM ($6MM in 2020, $7MM in 2021, $8MM in 2022)
- Total spend: $165.825MM
Trades and Claims
- Claimed LHP Josh Smith off waivers from the Marlins
- Selected Mark Payton from Athletics in Rule 5 Draft
- Acquired RHP Justin Shafer from Blue Jays for cash considerations
- Acquired OF Travis Jankowski for future considerations
- Acquired RHP Jose De Leon from Rays for OF Brian O’Grady and cash
Options Decisions
- Exercised $5.5MM option for SS Freddy Galvis
Extensions
- None
Notable Minor League Signings
- Jesse Biddle, Nate Jones, Boog Powell, Brooks Raley, Matt Davidson, Tyler Thornburg, David Carpenter
Notable Losses
- Kevin Gausman, Jose Peraza, Christian Colon, Keury Mella, Jackson Stephens, Jose Iglesias, Alex Wood, Juan Graterol, Jose Siri, Nick Martini (claimed from Padres, lost off waivers to Phillies), Jimmy Herget
The Reds halted their run of four consecutive 90-loss seasons in 2019, albeit modestly with a 75-87 record. David Bell‘s rookie campaign as the skipper had its ups and downs, but there are plenty more reasons for optimism than the record alone might suggest. Losing seasons, after all, have a tendency to compound on themselves. As the playoffs fade from view, games take on more nuanced objectives than victory alone. For the 2019 Reds, that meant getting a look at new toy Trevor Bauer, letting Aristides Aquino play superman for a time, and evaluating the roster on the whole to identify – with actionable intent – areas to target for improvement in the offseason.
So what did they find? In a nice change of pace, the Reds put together a top-10 pitching staff in 2019 – only to see their offense sink to the 25th ranked unit in the majors. It would have been temping to roll back the same group in the hopes that Aquino continue his power display, Nick Senzel develop as originally projected, and Eugenio Suarez heal enough to put together another .271/.358/.572-type season. But the Reds saw an opportunity to add offense. It’s fair to wonder if they bid against themselves, but the addition of power bats Mike Moustakas and Nicholas Castellanos deepens their lineup enough to forestall the risk of injury depletion elsewhere.
Perhaps most importantly, they filled a hole in center with Japanese import Shogo Akiyama. Akiyama would have been a good fit on a dozen clubs, but the 32-year-old brings his all-around game to Cincy. He’s a true centerfielder with on-base skills that should nicely augment a power-heavy group of sluggers. The Reds aggressively pursued Akiyama from the jump, and now the first Japanese player in franchise history will roam the grass in center on a reasonable contract. Like the Puig deal, Akiyama fits from an on-field perspective, but the business implications of expanding their potential fanbase overseas makes this deal work on multiple fronts.
At shortstop, Freddy Galvis takes over full-time from Jose Iglesias. It’s a lateral move, more-or-less, though Galvis leans a little heavier with the bat. The quality of Galvis’ glove depends on your metric of choice – 11 Outs Above Average from Statcast, 4 DRS and -1.7 UZR from Fangraphs. Let’s assume the Reds are believers. If not, are they just punting on defense? Moustakas is now Galvis’ full-time double-play partner, and he’s been a third baseman for most of his career. That said, Moose graded out okay at second in his limited time there last season (2 OAA, 0 DRS, -0.1 UZR), and it’s at least worth wondering how much body type plays a role in the skepticism over his ability to handle second full-time without a net. It’s natural to assume Senzel will play Moose’s defensive replacement (as well as his understudy), but Senzel is essentially making the same transition with a stopover in centerfield. He looks the part more than Moose, but the jury’s still out on his viability as a defensive upgrade. Regardless, he’s the closest they have to a defensive replacement on the roster.
Which brings us to the first counter-theory to the wisdom of the Reds’ offseason acquisitions. With Castellanos now entrenched in right, the Reds are betting that the offensive contributions from their newcomers will outweigh their defensive limitations. This subplot will be one of the more interesting to track if/when the season gets underway.
The other concern is this: there’s not a lot of flexibility baked into their future rosters given that Votto, Moustakas, Suarez, and Castellanos are all on the payroll for the next four seasons (at minimum). Not only do they need all four to contribute, but even if one falls off the map offensively, the presence of the other three means there’s nowhere to hide (assuming Castellanos opts in after both 2020 and 2021). That said, if Castellanos rakes as one might expect him to in Great American Ballpark, he could very well opt out, and they’d be a little better off in terms of their financial flexibility (while having reaped the benefit of his bat for a year). Positionally, even if Castellanos opts out, it doesn’t lengthen the leash much in the dirt where they’re looking at a 2023 infield of a 31-year-old Suarez at third, 34-year-old Moustakas at second, and 39-year-old Votto at first – but that’s a $54MM problem for the future.
On the other hand, roster flexibility takes many shapes. By upgrading via free agency, the Reds maintained versatility in terms of prospect depth. Nick Senzel steps into a super-utility role, but his name will make the rounds in the trade papers until he finds a regular role or proves himself indispensable. The Reds obviously see a window to compete, and they’re feeling the burn, which turns Senzel and any other prospect in the organization into currency with which they might further upgrade the roster down the line.
On the other side of the ball, the rotation was solid at the outset of the winter. The Reds staffed two of the top 25 starters in the game by measure of fWAR in 2019 (Sonny Gray, Luis Castillo). Bauer was roughed up in his first ten starts as a Red (6.39 ERA), though by FIP he was only marginally worse than his career norms (4.85 FIP). Believe it or not, Anthony DeSclafani tied with Chris Paddack and Robbie Ray for 29th in the NL by fWAR in 2019 (2.4 fWAR). Any team would feel pretty good with one of those guys slotting in as a fourth or fifth starter. Still, the Reds had room for another arm, and they got one in the form of Wade Miley on a two-year, $15MM deal. Miley imploded at the tail end of last season, but he was tipping his pitches. Assuming he’s cleaned that up, Miley solidifies their starting five into one of the more impressive units top-to-bottom in the league.
Tyler Mahle becomes the all-important sixth starter, a role akin to a backup quarterback. Whether or not he sees the field, he’s an important piece of the roster. Mahle doesn’t have a bullpen appearance on his major-league record, but the Reds are going to find out if his stuff plays up coming out of the pen.
As for the rest of the bullpen, there are some question marks. Raisel Iglesias is the foundation, and as far as lockdown artists go, he’s fine. Neither a superstar nor a liability, Iglesias enters the year as the closer for the fourth consecutive season after putting up career-best numbers with 34 saves and, more impressively, a 11.96 K/9 rate in 2019. He also sustained 12 losses and 6 blown saves. He’s a piece, for sure, but he’s far from a sure thing.
Amir Garrett evolved into one of the game’s premiere wildcard personalities in 2019, but he’s in a similar boat to Iglesias when it comes to production. He racked up 22 holds with a 3.21 ERA/4.14 FIP, good strikeout numbers (12.54 K/9), but the control was spotty (5.63 BB/9). Not to mention, he took on one entire roster in fisticuffs.
Pedro Strop adds some veteran chops to the bullpen, but he’s coming off a down year. Michael Lorenzen is an extremely handy bench/bullpen piece, but he’s not elite at any one thing. If there’s a concern for the Reds bullpen, it’s that they lack that one sure-thing, All-Star piece. Still, they have viable arms to choose from, and it’ll be on Bell to mix-and-match them to get the most out of this group.
2020 Outlook
The Reds were one of the more aggressive teams of the winter, and while their stature in the NL Central is rising, it’s not a foregone conclusion that they’ve surpassed any of the three clubs they’re chasing. Fangraphs projections peg them for 83 wins over a full 2020 season – even with the Brewers but behind the Cubbies and ahead of the Cardinals. Defense remains a concern, and the bullpen could end up needing an upgrade or two throughout the season (as many do). All that said, if/when a 2020 season is played, the Reds will be one of the more interesting teams to track. They have the depth in the lineup and the rotation to make a run. With Castellanos and Moustakas joining a perennial bottom-dweller in Cincy, they’re going to have some serious “nobody believes in us” energy to feed off. Did they do enough already to make you believe?
How would you grade the Reds’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)
How would you grade the Reds' offseason?
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B 46% (1,604)
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A 42% (1,461)
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C 8% (286)
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D 2% (58)
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F 1% (49)
Total votes: 3,458
The Obstacles Of Televising MLB Games Without Fans
As other major sports leagues consider the possibility of televising games played in front of empty stadiums, Major League Baseball would love to do the same. The reality of the situation is that even quarantining teams in Arizona or Florida don’t solve all the issues. Too many obstacles remain to make such an arrangement safe under the current conditions, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. With the amount of asymptomatic carriers unclear, there’s no way to guarantee the health and safety of those involved. There are simply too many moving pieces. Even the most bare bones operation for a single game would involve 52 players, plus coaches, umpires, television crews, hotel accommodations, food service workers, drivers, etc.
There would be financial hurdles as well, mostly in terms of allocating the television money. The fact is, a huge proportion of game day revenue comes from fans in the stadium. Without fan revenue, there would have to be a conversation between the league and players about the players taking reduced pay. Teams would not be able to pay players at their normal rates, and while the league and the players’ union have worked diligently at forming peaceful accords throughout this trying time, the amity alone does not smooth all the edges.
Besides, the revenue from TV contracts would not be able to cover the costs, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union Tribune. Acee notes that those teams with their own television networks might be able to make enough for the games to be worthwhile, but for those negotiating with local networks, there would likely be a further reduction in revenue. With the terms of original television contracts altered under the circumstances, the contracts themselves would likely require a renegotiation as well. There have been a few games without fans (or with few fans) aired over the years, and the end product is always a little bit eerie. It might be better than nothing under the circumstances, but where revenue is concerned, every adjustment has trickle down effects that must be negotiated throughout the invested parties.
And of course, there’s the final, most important obstacle, which I’ll relay directly from Rosenthal: “Diverting resources from health care would be another concern. Baseball would need to conduct wide-ranging testing for the virus, isolate anyone who gets sick and provide proper medical attention. Such an effort would require outside assistance, the kind of resources the league could not justify drawing away from the general population in the middle of a public health crisis.”
Offseason In Review: Colorado Rockies
A season after locking superstar Nolan Arenado into a long-term deal, the Rockies entered the offseason with a payroll bordering on the highest in team history. Despite flirting with the idea of moving Arenado and his mega deal, Colorado largely stood pat. When the 2020 season begins, they will confront their rivals in the NL West with close to the same team that racked up 91 losses a year ago.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Mujica, RHP: $563K, split contract
- Total spend: $563K
Trades and Claims
- Claimed RHP Tyler Kinley off waivers from the Marlins
Options Decisions
- None
Extensions
- Trevor Story, SS: Two years, $27.5MM (includes $2MM signing bonus, $8MM salary in 2020, $17.5MM salary in 2021)
- Scott Oberg, RHP: Three years, $13MM deal ($2MM in 2020, $4MM in 2021, $7MM in 2022, $8MM team option for 2023)
Notable Minor League Signings
- Eric Stamets, Daniel Bard, Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Collins, Elias Diaz, Kelby Tomlinson, Chris Owings, Mike Gerber, Tim Melville (re-signed), Zac Rosscup
Notable Losses
- Yonder Alonso, Rico Garcia, Tyler Anderson, DJ Johnson, Chad Bettis, Drew Butera, Sam Howard, Pat Valaika, Harrison Musgrave, Roberto Ramos
It’s been a long offseason for Rockies’ fans, even before COVID-19 put the season on temporary hold. The team that lost 91 games in 2019 didn’t get anything in the way of reinforcements over the winter. Executive VP & GM Jeff Bridich handed out just one major league contract — to Jose Mujica, a candidate for the rotation, though he has yet to make his major league debut. Mujica, 23, became a minor league free agent after six seasons in the Rays’ system. The 2019 season would have been his seventh with Tampa had he not undergone Tommy John and missed the entire year. In 2018, Mujica ascended as high as Triple-A where he notched a 2.80 ERA/2.81 FIP across 36 2/3 innings. He enjoyed good luck in the home run department over that span, as just 2.6% of the flyballs he allowed left the yard, but there’s at least a reasonable expectation for Mujica to join the pool of rotation candidates in Colorado, especially given their uncertainty in that department.
Colorado pitching, after all, has proven one of the more frustrating team-building challenges in the major leagues. The Sisyphean task of constructing even a league-average pitching staff at Coors Field persists year-after-year. Over the course of their 27-season history, the Rockies posted a league-average or better team ERA just three times (2010, 2009, 2007). In 2010, Jim Tracy’s 83-win squad finished with an exactly-league-average ERA, but those other two seasons — 2009, 2007 — happen to be two of the only three seasons in which the Rockies won 90 games in their history.
The third would be 2018. The Rockies pulled off a 91-win season the year before last, and though the pitching staff finished with a 4.33 ERA — slightly higher than the league average at 4.27 — they outplayed their pythagorean record by six wins and came within a play-in game of stealing the divisional crown from the Dodgers. Last season, the team ERA ballooned to 5.66, and Bud Black’s crew reversed their fortunes from a year before. The Rox weren’t the only pitchers to struggle last season, of course, as the league’s ERA on the whole ballooned from 4.27 in 2018 to 4.62 in 2019, but few staffs did so as mightily as the Rockies.
Regardless of where the league ERA falls in 2020, the blueprint is clear: if the Rockies can eek out average production from their pitchers, they’ll have a shot at contention. Unfortunately, the only additions from outside the organization this winter (beyond Mujica) were minor league signings like Ubaldo Jimenez, Tim Collins, Daniel Bard and Zac Rosscup. Jimenez made his debut in the rotation for that 2007 team, and he fronted the staff by 2009. Maybe there’s some wisdom he can impart about how to manage in Coors Field, but he’s unlikely to make much of a contribution on the hill. The 36-year-old last pitched in the majors in 2017 for the Orioles.
Collins may actually help in the bullpen, as he’s put up consistently solid ERAs when healthy. He shouldn’t be affected by the new three-batter rule either, with near identical splits versus lefties (.226/.339/.381) and versus righties (.235/.332/.358). That said, he’s yet to really re-establish himself after missing all of the 2015 and 2016 seasons after undergoing, you guessed it, Tommy John.
Worse yet for the Rockies, the messaging out of Colorado immediately after the season ended was that of befuddlement and frustration. Given that they didn’t spend much effort pursuing free agents, perhaps they’ve had time to figure out if the new baseball really was unduly launch-able in Colorado’s thin air, but as of November, the organization was still reeling and seemingly at a loss. Of course, a lot of time has passed since then, and time will tell if more stringent adherence to mechanical repetition can return Colorado hurlers like Jon Gray, Kyle Freeland, and German Marquez to unleashing better versions of themselves. Without bounce-back campaigns from their rotation – as well as closer Wade Davis, who was recently re-minted the ninth-inning man despite a 8.65 ERA/5.56 FIP in 2019 – the Rockies will have a tough time recording outs with consistency enough to compete in an increasingly competitive NL West.
On the position-player side, the Rockies should remain competitive, though their activity this winter was hardy encouraging. Mostly, they spent the winter engaged in a cold war with their franchise player, who felt “disrespected” by the organization while expressly voicing his desire to play for a contender. All is not lost, however, and Arenado remains an extremely valuable asset, even while raking in $35MM a year. He’s that good.
And yet, the rift between Arenado and the club is unsettling. For now, the Rockies have probably the best left side of the infield in all of baseball, but Trevor Story may not be a lifer in Colorado either. Story signed an extension this winter, which on its face may seem like a positive, but it merely preserves an existing window of control before he’s slated to qualify for free agency. Story’s deal settled his final two seasons of arbitration without buying out any free agent years.
Then there’s this: The expiration date of Story’s new deal coincides with a lot of money coming off the books in Colorado. Barring a long-term agreement, he’ll be a free agent after the 2021 season, at which time the Rockies will also be free of current upscale rosterees like Daniel Murphy, Bryan Shaw, Jake McGee, Ian Desmond, as well as Gray, the presumptive staff ace, who enters his final arbitration season in 2021. Arenado, as well, has an opt out that same offseason. The Rockies essentially have two seasons before they could face a complete organizational reset – which means the clock is ticking on any opportunities to get out in front of these free agent departures.
The offseason, however, felt anything but urgent. Having ramped up salaries in the past several years, Colorado doesn’t appear willing to spend beyond the current level. With an opening day payroll set to be around $156MM, per Fangraphs’ Roster Resource, the payroll remains exactly where it was at the start of this offseason.
Despite their overall stagnancy, the Rockies did extend their best bullpen arm in Scott Oberg. Bridich has poured a lot of money into the bullpen in recent years, and the results haven’t exactly been gold-star worthy. But the Oberg investment looks solid. Over 105 games the last two seasons, he’s put up a 2.35 ERA/3.20 FIP with 9.0 K/9 versus 2.7 BB/9, and the financial terms are modest.
2020 Outlook
It’s bound to be a tough season in Colorado. If they struggle out of the gate, the frigidity between the club and Arenado isn’t likely to improve, and the trade rumors will continue to swirl. They’ve shown no inclination towards dealing any of their top trade chips (Arenado, Story, Gray, David Dahl), but if the pitching doesn’t make an immediate and drastic 180 at the start of the season, Bridich may be forced to consider his options.
How would you grade the Rockies’ offseason moves? (Link for app users.)
How Would You Grade The Rockies' Offseason?
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F 45% (970)
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D 36% (759)
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C 14% (309)
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A 2% (53)
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B 2% (46)
Total votes: 2,137
Quick Hits: MiLB, Bichette, Axford
Minor league baseball teams are being hit particularly hard by the coronavirus shutdown, per Baseball America’s J.J. Cooper. With the shutdown coming so close to the start of the season, many minor league teams had already spent money in preparation for the season – money they aren’t likely to recoup. Some teams will consider small business loans to stay afloat, but there’s too much uncertainty to forecast too far into the future. The livelihoods of the many part-time workers that help keep minor league ballparks functioning is a primary concern, of course, but there’s definitely the possibility of losing a minor league team or two wholesale. Cooper says this of the issue, “The numbers vary, but without significant help from the government or others, estimates from people inside MiLB range from 10 to 40 MiLB clubs that may struggle to make it through the season.” Let’s head north of the border for some more updates…
- Bo Bichette has been keeping his arm loose, trying to keep a routine and stay prepared, but with the layoff stretching longer than initially expected, he’s considering taking some time off from the even most basic baseball activities, per TSN’s Scott Mitchell. There are obviously bigger issues at play here, which is why Bichette has no problem backburnering his career for the time being while focusing on social distancing. That said, in the distant background of Mitchell’s article, the question of ballplayer health arises. It will be an interesting one to track when/if the season does get underway.
- Speaking of complications from the current crisis, Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch hopes the current layoff pushes the league and players’ union to find some common ground when it comes to eventual collective bargaining. Frederickson provides a quote from Andrew Miller, who captured the sentiment of many when he said “The finances of the game, whether it’s from the player or the owner perspective, it’s in everybody’s best interest to get games going.”
- John Axford was mounting a comeback bid before COVID-19 rearranged everyone’s priorities, per the Canadian Press at Sportsnet.ca. Axford sustained a stress fracture in his right elbow during spring training last year, missing the entire season while recovering. The once-mustachioed Axford last appeared in the majors for the Blue Jays and Dodgers in 2018, sustaining some bad luck en route to a 5.27 ERA across 50 outings. A 3.98 FIP suggests the underlying output from Axford deserves a second look. Over his ten year career, Axford made 543 appearances for the Brewers, A’s, Rockies, Pirates, Cardinals, Dodgers, Indians and Blue Jays, though no stop was more noteworthy than his early days in Milwaukee, which included a 46-save season in 2011. In total, he notched 144 career saves with a 3.87 ERA/3.67 FIP. Whether Axford gets another chance at cracking an MLB roster remains to be seen, but he’s keeping his options open for now.
AL West Notes: Rangers, Kiner-Falefa, A’s Camp Battles
Before spring training shut down, the Rangers’ Isiah Kiner-Falefa made his presence known while vying for the 26th roster spot. Kiner-Falefa, 25 on Monday, put up big numbers this spring after ditching a high leg kick – though his swing could use further simplification, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. Kiner-Falefa returned home to Hawaii for now, but when/if the season reboots, he’ll have a chance not only to crack the Rangers’ roster, but to play a significant role. Kiner-Falefa brings interesting upside to the Rangers’ roster because of his positional versatility. The past two seasons he has not only served as the Rangers’ backup catcher, appearing in 35 and 38 games behind the dish, respectively, but he’s also seen time at third base and in the middle infield. The bat has not been there over the course of his first two big-league seasons (.253/.315/.344, 71 wRC+), but given what they saw thus far in the spring, expectations are that Kiner-Falefa could push for additional playing time at third base where Todd Frazier is slated to sit first chair. Elsewhere out west…
- The Oakland Athletics have a few positions still up in the air after truncated spring training, per MLB.com’s Martin Gallegos. Second base remains likely in the hands of favorites Franklin Barreto and Tony Kemp. Presumably, Kemp could protect Barreto against tough right-handers while getting his feet wet in the big leagues. Kemp’s value largely comes as a clubhouse presence and versatile offensive contributor, to use the term loosely, as he has struggled at the dish with a .233/.314/.367 career line. Kemp, 28, has yet to produce a slugging percentage over .400 for a full season, and it’s hard to imagine his power playing up in the Coliseum.
- That said, Gallegos makes the argument that the more compelling battle was that of the two presumptive backups: Jorge Mateo and Vimael Machin. Mateo, 24, has more name recognition, and his speed and athleticism certainly make him worth watching. He’s out of options, and if he doesn’t make the team out of camp, Mateo is unlikely to make it through waivers given his bench-ready skillset. That’s extra incentive to keep him around, but they face the same issue with Machin, a Rule 5 pick from the Cubs. The A’s could try to work out a deal with Chicago to keep Machin, 26, in the organization. Otherwise, the roster crunch is real, as none of Mateo, Barreto, or Kemp have any options remaining. Chad Pinder is already entrenched as the primary utility option off the bench, leaving probably one spot max in the long-term for the runners-up in the battle for second base.
Rogelio Armenteros Has Bone Spur Removed From Elbow
Astros right-hander Rogelio Armenteros underwent surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow yesterday, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle. Armenteros should be ready to pitch again in four months time.
Armenteros, 25, made five appearances (two starts) for the Astros last season, contributing 18 innings of 4.00 ERA/2.77 FIP baseball. He also put together 84 1/3 innings with a 4.80 ERA/5.08 FIP in Triple-A.
While not an upper-tier prospect (Baseball America puts him as the Astros’ #26 prospect, while MLB.com does not rank him among their top 30), Armenteros nonetheless offers some upside as a late-season contributor in 2020. He will be an option for the rotation or bullpen upon his return. Given his lack of big league experience, however, the 25-year-old will likely report directly to Triple-A upon his return. There’s enough uncertainty baked into the Astros’ rotation that Armenteros could very well find himself a key contributor at the tail end of 2020. He’ll have to prove himself healthy and effective first, of course.
In the meantime, the Astros’ rotation is most likely to consist of Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., Jose Urquidy and Josh James. The fifth spot is officially up for grabs, however, and Verlander remains on the shelf with a lat strain.
Nationals Release Hunter Strickland, David Hernandez
The Nationals released right-handers Hunter Strickland and David Hernandez today, as announced by their PR department via Twitter.
Strickland, 31, was acquired by the Nats at last year’s trade deadline. The move was notable for two reasons: in part because he’d made only 4 appearances for the Mariners at the time of the deal after coming back from injury, but more notably because of the interpersonal implications of adding Strickland to the clubhouse given his, shall we say, complicated history with the club (recapped here by Scott Allen of the Washington Post).
Of course, if there were any ill effects, it didn’t hinder the club as they went on to win the World Series, and the Nats spoke highly of Strickland during his time in Washington. Strickland, for his part, contributed as a middle-innings reliever when the Nats were most desperate for one, putting up a 3.14 ERA in August. Unfortunately, the good times did not last for Strickland, whose season came off the rails as he finished the year with a less-than-impressive 5.14 ERA/6.31 FIP as the Nats turned to Daniel Hudson, Sean Doolittle, Tanner Rainey and Fernando Rodney for important innings down the stretch.
A propensity for surrendering long balls eventually cost Strickland his spot on the playoff roster. Strickland gave up 3 home runs in two appearances against the Dodgers in the NLDS, raising his playoff total to a somewhat remarkable 9 home runs against in just 13 career playoff innings. After his release, MASN’s Mark Zuckerman notes that the Nats will remain on the hook for about one-quarter of his $1.6MM contract signed this offseason.
Hernandez, 35, was brought in on a minor league deal after a tough season last year with the Reds. Hernandez racked up an 8.02 ERA over 47 appearances, though a 4.34 FIP certainly paints a much different picture of his season.
The Nationals also optioned Jake Noll, Aaron Barrett, Ben Braymer and Kyle McGowin to Triple-A. Jacob Wilson, Brandon Snyder, Taylor Gushue, JB Shuck, Dakota Bacus, Bryan Bonnell and Wil Crowe were reassigned to minor league camp.
It’s worth noting, the announcement of roster moves at this time is a little surprising, given the state of affairs. There was talk of a freeze on roster moves, but there was not a formal directive to do so.
Quick Hits: Bauer’s Sandlot Game, Yankees, German, Astros, Verlander
The enigmatic Trevor Bauer isn’t letting a state of emergency stop him from playing baseball, per his Twitter account. Bauer is organizing a “sandlot” game for any interested MLB or MiLB players still in Arizona, complete with mandatory mics for all players involved for streaming across his social channels. While the wisdom of such a gathering may be at odds with directives of social distancing, there will no doubt be plenty of interest in watching Bauer spearhead, well, anything, really, but especially a sandlot-style ballgame as the rest of the sporting world is in shut down. More than half of his Reds’ teammates have left camp, per The Athletic’s C. Trent Rosecrans, but many players from the Reds and other organizations remain in Arizona. Let’s check in on how else the virus might be affecting the ramp-up to the 2020 season…
- Yankees’ right-hander Domingo German, currently suspended for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy, will have his own return delayed in step with the MLB season, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post. Davidoff offers clarification on the terms of German’s suspension, which will keep him on the shelf for the first 81 games of the 2020 season, whenever the season begins. Because the terms of the suspension are classified in games, there’s little wiggle room for German even if the season should be further delayed or truncated due to the spread of COVID-19. German had his best season to date in 2019, going 18-4 with a 4.03 ERA/4.72 FIP across 143 innings of work, striking out 9.6 K/9 versus 2.5 BB/9.
- The Astros might be see the biggest benefit of a delayed season as it gives their ace Justin Verlander time to heal, writes MLB.com’s Ricard Justice. The Astros have a difficult season ahead, and Verlander is arguably the most important player for the defending American League champs. Verlander’s lat strain had put his opening day start in question, but with an extra month (and perhaps more) to heal, the Astros’ will certainly benefit in getting Verlander back earlier, even if he’s not ready whenever the season does actually kick off.