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Felix Hernandez Opts Out Of Orioles Contract

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1:19pm: The Orioles announced that Hernandez has requested and been granted his release. He’s not expected to re-sign a new deal with the O’s, tweets Joe Trezza of MLB.com.

7:25am: Felix Hernandez has chosen to opt out of his contract with the Baltimore Orioles and become a free agent, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter).

For awhile this spring, it looked like King Felix would indeed win an opportunity to begin the season in the Orioles rotation, but an elbow injury knocked him out of action in mid-March and undermined his efforts. Had he made the roster, he would have been in line for a $1MM salary.

Prior to the injury, Hernandez made three starts, threw 5 2/3 innings, and allowed five earned runs, six hits, two walks, and a hit batsman. He also struck out five. But there simply wasn’t enough evidence that Hernandez would even be healthy enough to take a turn every five days.

Hernandez last pitched in the Majors in 2019. He has a 169-136 record in 2,729 2/3 innings over 418 career starts – all with the Mariners. The soon-to-be 35-year-old put up 50.3 bWAR/54.1 fWAR over 15 seasons in Seattle.

Twins To Sign Randy Dobnak To Five-Year Extension

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TODAY: Bob Nightengale of USA Today provides the details on Dobnak’s extension. He’ll make $700K this season, $800K in 2022, $1.5MM in 2023, $2.25MM in 2024, and $3MM in 2025, his final year of initial team control. The three team options will be worth $6MM in 2026, $7MM in 2027, and $8.5MM in 2028 with buyouts of $1MM for 2026 and just $100K for both 2027 and 2028.

MARCH 29: The Minnesota Twins are in agreement with right-hander Randy Dobnak on a five-year, $9.25MM extension, per Jeff Passan of ESPN (via Twitter). The deal includes three club option years with escalators that can bring the total amount up to $29.75MM. The first option year in 2026 will include a $1MM buyout, per MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park (via Twitter). That leaves $8.25MM to be spread out among the five seasons prior. For each of the three option years, escalators can add up to $1.8MM per season based on innings pitched thresholds.  Dobnak is a client of Gaeta Sports Management.

This definitely rates as somewhat of a surprise, given that Dobnak, 26, will begin the year in the bullpen after spending all of last season in the rotation. While starting the year in a piggyback role might seem like a demotion, the Twins clearly feel compelled enough by Dobnak’s performance to guarantee his role in the organization for years to come. Further, with just 1.047 days of service time, he wasn’t likely to become arbitration-eligible until 2023.

The Twins, meanwhile, get three additional seasons of optional team control at what are likely to be reasonable rates. Both sides benefit from the financial certainty, though the escalators still provide Dobnak with a path to increasing his future earnings. Importantly, this is likely to be Dobnak’s primary source of career earnings: If the Twins choose to buy out the option years, it’s not likely to lead to a higher salary elsewhere, and if the Twins don’t buyout any of the option years, Dobnak will reach free agency for the first time prior to his age-34 season. Still, given his non-traditional path to professional baseball, it’s certainly understandable why a deal like this would appeal to Dobnak.

His rise, after all, certainly qualifies as one of the less likely origin stories in recent season. The Twins signed Dobnak with a mere $500 signing bonus in July 2017 after scouting him exclusively over YouTube, writes the Athletic’s Dan Hayes. He supplemented his income by driving for Uber and excelled through the Twins’ system despite overwhelming velocity or a knock-out put-away pitch. For a 26-year-old who signed out of independent ball, this deal represents life-changing money.

On the hill, suffice it so say that Dobnak has repeatedly overcome his underdog status to provide valuable innings for Minnesota. He was a genuine revelation in making his debut during the 2019 season, posting a 1.59 ERA/3.92 SIERA in five starts and four relief appearances covering 28 1/3 innings. Dobnak’s sophomore season had more ups-and-downs, but he still managed a 4.05 ERA/4.56 SIERA in 10 starts covering 46 2/3 innings. In 75 total career innings, Dobnak has achieved an excellent 58.8 percent groundball rate with a similarly-encouraging 5.7 percent walk rate and less-than-thrilling 15.7 percent strikeout rate.

He certainly doesn’t fit the mold of today’s hurler. His fastball lands in the 31st percentile for velocity and 5th percentile for spin rate. He is in the 13th percentile for whiff rate and fourth percentile by strikeout rate. Nevertheless, he has been better than average at avoiding barrels and coaxing below-average exit velocity while burning worms and avoiding free passes.

The recipe has worked for Dobnak thus far and earned him a long-term home in Minnesota. His four-seam fastball/sinker averaged just 91.4 mph, but strong arm-side run has proved it particularly effective against righties. He re-worked his slider and increased its usage in 2020 to promising results. While he will begin the season in the bullpen, the Twins rotation features a number of veterans with a history of injuries. It’s highly unlikely that the Twins won’t need to access their depth behind Kenta Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, and the oft-injured Matt Shoemaker. Chances are the Twins’ mustachioed, bespectacled, newly-wealthy right-hander will be called on for bulk innings in 2021 and beyond.

NL Notes: Nationals, Pirates, Cardinals

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The Nationals will enter the season with Starlin Castro as their everyday third baseman. Josh Harrison will get most of the starts at second, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). Veterans Jordy Mercer and Hernan Perez will back them up. The latter duo had just 28 plate appearances between them in 2020. This wasn’t exactly the plan as designed for how to replace Anthony Rendon, who is finally recognized as one of the best in the game at the hot corner.

Unfortunately, Carter Kieboom hasn’t totally turned the corner after tying for the 10-lowest ISO mark (.010 ISO) among batters with at least 100 plate appearances in the past twenty seasons. Among those in the bottom-10, three promptly retired, while others continued on as rarely-used bench players. Take it for what you will, then, that a Kieboom resurgence still likely presents the highest possible ceiling of the options available. For now, the Nats will trudge forward with their cadre of veterans. This might not be a short-term solution, however. Manager Dave Martinez said he wants Castro at third because he’s going to play everyday and he doesn’t want to move him around, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). Martinez prefers Harrison’s range at second. Meanwhile, we’re just three days from opening day…

  • Former Nationals Wilmer Difo and Brian Goodwin were reassigned to minor league camp along with right-hander Steven Wright, the Pirates announced today. Right-hander Geoff Hartlieb has also been optioned to the minors. That means Anthony Alford likely starts the year as the starting centerfielder, notes Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, with Dustin Fowler backing up all three outfield spots. Alford, 26, jumps right into a regular role after experiencing mere cups of coffee in the four years prior. Going back to his debut with the Blue Jays in 2017, here are Alford’s season totals for plate appearances: 8, 21, 30, and 29.
  • Tommy Edman will be the Cardinals’ backup centerfielder to start the season, per Jeff Jones of MLB.com (via Twitter). Tyler O’Neill will line up after him. Harrison Bader’s injury has certainly thrown a bit of a wrench into the Cardinals defensive alignment. With Bader, St. Louis was preparing an otherworldly defensive unit: Paul Goldschmidt is a three-time Gold Glove winner at first; Yadier Molina is a nine-time winner and the consensus best defensive catcher of his generation; Paul DeJong has been frozen out of award season, but he’s been easily among the NL’s best defensive shortstops in recent seasons; ditto for Bader in center, while O’Neill posted 9 DRS in left last season; Nolan Arenado, of course, has never not won the Gold Glove. Not mentioned there, Carlson and Edman, who are, apparently, capable of shifting to centerfield at a moment’s notice. No matter who mans center, it seems, the Cards plan on catching the baseball.

NL West Notes: Diamondbacks, Widener, Closer, Ahmed, Dodgers, McKinstry

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Taylor Widener will open the season as a member of the Diamondbacks rotation, per MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert (via Twitter). Widener beat out Taylor Clarke to take Zac Gallen’s spot in the rotation. Widener has been a highly-regarded prospect, first in the Yankees’ system and then with the Diamondbacks. He made 12 appearances out of the Dbacks’ pen in 2020 with a 4.50 ERA/6.49 FIP across 20 innings. Clarke, meanwhile, will head to the bullpen. Elsewhere in the desert…

  • The Diamondbacks are going with a closer-by-committee approach to start the season, per Zach Buchanan of the Athletic (via Twitter). Joakim Soria has been the presumptive closer given his past experience in the role compared to the other options on the roster. Soria’s 223 career saves easily set the pace. Tyler Clippard is second with 68 career saves, and Stefan Crichton comes in third with just five career saves. Nevertheless, Crichton is one of the guys manager Torey Lovullo may turn to late in game. The Diamondbacks might simply want to push some of their less proven bullpen arms to see what exactly they have in someone like Crichton or Kevin Ginkel.
  • Nick Ahmed’s been experiencing knee pain, an issue that he has dealt with in the past. He received a platelet-rich plasma injection as treatment and plans to be ready for opening day, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic (via Twitter). Arizona doesn’t have a perfect solution to replace Ahmed, were he to miss time. Josh Rojas would likely slide to short with Asdrubal Cabrera seeing more regular time at the keystone. For now, however, they’ll assume good health and move ahead with Ahmed. While he’s not among the elite at his position, Ahmed has put together a quality three-year stretch, pairing gold glove defense with an acceptable 89 wRC+.
  • Dodgers manager Dave Roberts confirmed that none of the non-roster invitees are still in the running to make their opening day roster, per Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter). Presumably, that means Zach McKinstry has made the roster as a utility option off the bench. There is still one roster decision pending for the champs, however, as Roberts says they are not yet decided about their fifth starter. David Price, Dustin May, and Tony Gonsolin are all still under consideration for the role. Price was scratched from his recent start because of illness. He plans to pitch today in a simulated game. (Twitter links). Gonsolin struggled through 3 2/3 innings against the Angels on Sunday night.

Angels Option Ty Buttrey, Sign Noe Ramirez

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The Angels bullpen finished 12th in the Majors by measure of FIP in 2020 and 21st by ERA, but the most gaudy failures came at the end of games. The Angels blew 14 saves, the most in the Majors. New GM Perry Minasian acted decisively to address their bullpen woes this winter. Raisel Iglesias was the big get coming over from Cincinnati, but he’s not the only new face: Alex Claudio signed early in December, Junior Guerra in January, and Aaron Slegers was acquired via trade from the much-vaunted Tampa bullpen.

They continued to tinker with their bullpen mix with a pair of moves today. In a surprising development, the club optioned Ty Buttrey to Triple-A, the team announced. After joining the Angels from Boston along with Williams Jerez as part of the Ian Kinsler deadline deal in 2018, Buttrey posted a 1.4 fWAR season in 2019 in 72 appearances covering 72 1/3 innings. He earned his 3.98 ERA/3.58 SIERA while striking out 27.2 percent of hitters and walking just 7.4 percent. Entering 2020, Buttrey was a key variable in the Angels’ run-prevention equation.

Over 27 games in 2020, however, Buttrey’s strikeout rate fell to a concerning 16.1 percent. His ERA- saw a year-over-year spike from 87 to 132. He was responsible for four of the Angels’ 14 blown saves while notching just a pair of holds. The North Carolina native converted 26 holds the year prior. His velocity fell from 97.1 mph to 96.1 mph, and while that still ranked in the 88th percentile for fastball velocity, his whiff rate with the offering fell from 25.5 percent to 16.8 percent. Perhaps more to the point, his slider suffered significantly diminished side-to-side break. He recorded just one strikeout with his slider while opponents hammered it for a .511 expected slugging mark. He’ll now begin the 2021 season at the Angels’ alternate site looking “to regain the consistency that eluded the right-handed in his third major-league season,” writes Kevin Modesti of the Orange County Register.

The Angels also moved quickly today to bring right-hander Noe Ramirez back to the organization after he was released by the Reds. Terms of the deal haven’t yet been released, but it’s not believed to be a Major League deal. Ramirez, of course, was the primary Major League piece sent to Cincinnati in exchange for Iglesias. Like Buttrey, he also began his career with the Red Sox before the Angels claimed him off waivers in 2017. From 2018 to 2020, Ramirez logged 172 innings over 141 appearances out of the Angels’ pen with a 4.13 ERA/3.63 SIERA. Ramirez’s strikeout rate also fell alarmingly in 2020, though a favorable HR/FB rate helped produce a 3.00 ERA despite the uninspiring peripherals.

On the whole, Ramirez has been much more effective against same-handed hitters. That trend was amplified in 2020 as righties hit just .173/.267/.269 off Ramirez compared to lefties, who successfully produced a .273/.360/.455 line. Against the 60 right-handed hitters he faced, Ramirez logged a 23.3 percent strikeout rate, which isn’t all that far off his career 28.8 percent mark. He failed to strike out any of the 25 left-handed hitters he faced, however, compared to a 19.7 percent strikeout rate against lefties for his career. He has long been more effective against righties, but if the properties of his work continue as seen in 2020, he’ll require heavily-scripted usage to be an effective piece of manager Joe Maddon’s pen.

Minor MLB Transactions: 3/28/21

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The latest minor moves around the league…

Latest

  • The A’s announced a pair of roster moves, optioning Vimael Machin and Seth Brown to Triple-A. That means Rule 5 selection Ka’ai Tom is likely to make the roster as a reserve outfielder, notes Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. Tom didn’t get a full spring because of an oblique injury, but he apparently showed enough for the A’s to keep him on the active roster. He’ll need to stay there for the entire season or else be returned to the Indians. Machin spent some of last season standing in for Matt Chapman at third before Jake Lamb arrived, but a relatively punchless .206/.296/.238 across 71 plate appearances likely returns the difficult-to-strikeout left-handed hitter to an emergency fill-in role. Brown, 28, contributed 0.7 fWAR in a highly-productive 26-game sample in 2019, but he logged only five plate appearances across seven games in 2020.

Earlier Updates

  • The Rangers released Nick Vincent yesterday, but today they announced that he will stay with the organization on a minor league contract. We’ll see this pattern with a number of players between now and opening day. The 34-year-old Vincent has seen action in every season going back to 2012 when he debuted with the Padres. He has appeared in 405 games over his nine-year career with exactly matching 3.38 ERA/FIP marks while suiting up for the Pads, Mariners, Giants, Phillies, and Marlins.
  • 16-year-old Cuban outfielder Luis Mario Piño has agreed to sign with the Cardinals for $767K, per ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (Twitter links). Pino had multiple offers both for this signing period and next, but he ultimately has decided to join the Cardinals’ 2021-22 class of international signees. The White Sox, A’s, and Red Sox were among the teams who were said to be interested in Pino.

Phillies To Select Ronald Torreyes, Release C.J. Chatham

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After the Phillies made the surprising decision to option Scott Kingery to Triple-A, manager Joe Girardi was in need of a utility option for his opening day roster. Thus, Ronald Torreyes has been told that he made the team, per MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki (via Twitter). Torreyes, 28, appeared in four games with the Phillies in 2020, though he saw significant playing time with the Yankees from 2016 to 2018. Also appearing for the Dodgers and Twins, Torreyes owns a career .277/.306/.369 line in 639 plate appearances across six years. He has mostly split his time between second, third, and short, though he has technically seen time in each of the three outfield positions, albeit sparingly.

The Phillies also announced the release of C.J. Chatham, per the Athletic’s Matt Gelb (via Twitter). The right-handed infielder and former second-round pick of the Red Sox was another contender for the roster spot that went to Torreyes. Chatham has yet to make his Major League debut, though he posted a solid season in the upper minors in 2019. He marked a .297/.333/.403 in 376 plate appearances in Double-A and a .302/.333/.430 in 91 plate appearances with Triple-A Pawtucket.

Torreyes’ presence on the roster likely means that only two of Adam Haseley, Roman Quinn, and Odubel Herrera will make the team. The likeliest outcome is that Haseley begins the season in the minors. He has options remaining and missed a decent chunk of the spring due to injury. Quinn has the best numbers this spring with a .294/.351/.441 line across 38 plate appearance, and since he is out of options, it’s safe to assume he’ll make the roster. That said, the stats themselves aren’t necessarily the barometer that Girardi and company are using to make these roster decisions.

Philadelphia does have two open spots on their 40-man roster. Torreyes needs one of those spots, however, and Matt Joyce would need one as well if he makes the team. Herrera and Brandon Kintzler are also roster candidates who would need to be added to the 40-man.

Royals Option Nicky Lopez

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In a somewhat surprising move, the Royals have optioned second baseman Nicky Lopez to Triple-A, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star (via Twitter). Whit Merrifield is now in line to move in from the outfield to man second base, notes the Athletic’s Alec Lewis (via Twitter).

Looking at the numbers, it’s not a shock to see Lopez sent down for further seasoning. His 55 wRC+ across 192 plate appearances in 2020 ranked dead last among the 142 qualified hitters in the Majors. He slashed .201/.286/.266 with a meager .065 ISO. Specifically, the quality of his contact was lacking: He finished in the fourth percentile league-wide for exit velocity, barrel rate, and expected slugging. That said, he provides elite defense at the keystone, he runs well, and with a 9.4 percent walk rate and 21.4 percent strikeout rate, his approach at the plate is solid.

Despite his struggles, the Royals have stood behind Lopez. It certainly seemed as if they were planning on entering 2021 with Lopez as their starting second baseman. Per MLB.com’s Anne Rogers (via Twitter), manager Mike Matheny commented, saying, “We had some conversations, knowing that we have some time to get his swing in the right place. He’s been working the last several days and has made some good strides.”

With Lopez heading to Triple-A and Merrifield moving to second, Kyle Isbel looks like a possibility to start the season in right field. He would need to be added to the 40-man roster, as does Hanser Alberto, who seems likely to make the roster as a reserve infielder. Alberto could benefit from extra playing time, with Hunter Dozier seeing time in right. If not Isbell, Jarrod Dyson, Nick Heath, Edward Olivares, or Ryan McBroom could be given more playing time in the outfield. Alternatively, Jorge Soler could see time in right, and the Royals could deploy a rotating designated hitter.

Mets Notes: Lindor, Montgomery, Roster Cuts

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Mets owner Steve Cohen had dinner with Francisco Lindor on Saturday night, ostensibly to see if they could close the gap in their extension negotiations, per MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo. The Mets appear willing to cross the $300MM threshold, but that’s not a guarantee to keep Lindor in Queens long-term. The two sides continue to talk, however, and there is growing optimism that an accord will be reached before Lindor’s deadline of opening day. While we wait, let’s see how the rest of the Mets roster is shaping up…

  • The Mets released left-hander Mike Montgomery today, per Tim Healey of Newsday (via Twitter). Montgomery was thought to have a shot at making the Mets bullpen as a non-roster invitee, but he now heads back to free agency. The 31-year-old is best known for getting his first career save to close out the Cubs’ game seven World Series victory in 2016. He never quite rose to the level that many expected of him, but he nevertheless has put together a six-year career as a swingman for the Mariners, Cubs, and Royals. The Royals acquired him from the Cubs midway through the 2019 season with the plan to finally install him regularly into their starting rotation. He made 13 starts the rest of the way covering 64 innings with a 4.64 ERA/4.74 SIERA. He logged just 5 1/3 innings in 2020, however. Montgomery had pitched well in spring training, but the Mets would have been on the hook for $2.25MM if they rostered him, notes MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo (via Twitter). He had an opt-out clause in his contract for today.
  • The Mets also announced a series of roster cuts today. Jerry Blevins, Jerad Eickhoff,  Caleb Joseph, Jose Peraza, Mallex Smith, and Arodys Vizcaino were informed that they will not make the opening day roster, per Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). Blevins, 37, will head to the Mets’ alternate site in Brooklyn. He’ll be joined there by fellow southpaw Stephen Tarpley, who was optioned to Triple-A. Tarpley has two options remaining.

Latest On Blue Jays Roster Outlook

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Alejandro Kirk, Trent Thornton, Tim Mayza, and Rowdy Tellez were given good news today. The quartet made the Blue Jays opening day roster, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter).

With the increasingly-popular Kirk earning his roster spot, the Blue Jays have a decision looming on Reese McGuire. If the Blue Jays decide against carrying three catchers, they will have to expose McGuire to the waiver process. There is a possibility that Toronto keeps him on the roster, however, especially if George Springer starts the year on the injured list. With Joe Panik and Jonathan Davis also announced as members of the bench, there’s probably not room for McGuire if Springer is healthy enough to play. Infielder Breyvic Valera will also have to be designated for assignment should he not make the roster, as seems likely.

In terms of the bullpen, the final roster spot will go to either Julian Merryweather, Francisco Liriano, or Anthony Castro, notes Gregor Chisholm of the Toronto Star (via Twitter). A.J. Cole was in the running as well, but he is less likely to start the season with the big-league club. Merrweather has some multi-inning potential as a power arm, and he is slated to pitch once more before a final decision is made. He’s also the one of the four who is already on the 40-man roster.

Speaking of which, Panik needs to be added to the 40-man roster, as does Mayza. The 40-man roster is currently full, though since McGuire and Valera are both out of options, they could be DFA’ed to open the space needed. Ben Nicholson-Smith of sportsnet.ca provides a visual representation of the decisions ahead for Toronto.

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