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Andrés Giménez Likely To Be Named Starting Shortstop

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During a Zoom call with reporters including Zack Meisel of the Athletic, Indians’ manager Terry Francona all but named Andrés Giménez the team’s everyday shortstop. Francona spoke glowingly of Giménez’s pace and understanding of the game from a defensive standpoint. He also noted that their confidence in Giménez was a primary driver behind Amed Rosario being asked to get reps in centerfield (and elsewhere).

Giménez became a fan favorite during his one season with the Mets as a 21-year-old. While he doesn’t project for much punch at the plate (nor patience), a triple slash line of .263/.333/.398 showed enough for the Indians to saddle him with the weighty responsibility of replacing franchise legend Francisco Lindor.

Offensively, he won’t come close to matching Lindor’s all-around play, but he does have the skill set to more-or-less replace Lindor’s contributions with the glove. None of ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat X or ATC think very highly of Giménez’s ability at the plate: The four projection systems forecast a range of .296 wOBA to .306 wOBA, despite a .321 wOBA in 2020. Even if he outperforms his forecasts, he’ll likely need to excel defensively to make a positive on-field impact in 2021.

Lindor tied for second among shortstops in 2020 with seven outs above average, but Giménez finished with four OAA himself with a six percent success rate added – the best such mark among shortstops. Lindor posted a three percent success rate added. For what it’s worth, Giménez managed saw just 182 innings in the field, which can both help and hurt his defensive metrics. Essentially, Giménez figures to be a strong performer with the glove, but just how strong isn’t exactly clear. Francona noted his sure-handedness with the glove, and it’s at least within the realm of possibility that he grows into one of the better gloveman at the position.

With Giménez likely to man short, Rosario will be pushed into a utility role. Rosario has long been viewed as having the tools to provide plus defense, but he’ll have to do so from various spots around the diamond. It will be a new challenge for the 25-year-old, who has played all but three career innings at shortstop. With César Hernández and José Ramírez at second and third, the infield is largely spoken for – though Rosario will have opportunities to spell both players, as well as Giménez at short. One would think he would start most games against southpaws somewhere on the infield.

Because of Rosario’s $2.4MM contract, there’s little doubt that Rosario will make the roster. His exact role, however, will be a situation worth watching through the season’s first couple of months. Giménez might have seen some time in the minors as a pre-arbitration player with three options remaining, but that now appears less likely.

Injury Notes: Kelenic, Long Jr., Choi

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Let’s get some injury updates from the American League…

  • Jarred Kelenic is progressing well as he tries to get his left knee back to full strength, per the Athletic’s Corey Brock (via Twitter). The young outfielder plans to meet with the training staff today and set a course to return to action. Kelenic himself was bullish about his ability to make a quick return. Assuming no setbacks, there’s no reason that Kelenic shouldn’t be ready for the season opener. Whether or not he makes the Mariners’ opening day roster will be one of the more closely watched roster decisions around the game. The 21-year-old certainly expects to make the roster, despite only 21 games of experience at Double-A.
  • Shed Long Jr. lost his starting second base job to Dylan Moore last season, and he looked to make a strong impression this spring. Instead, inflammation in his surgically-repaired right shin has kept him out of action entirely, writes the Athletic’s Corey Brock. It now seems unlikely that Long will even be ready in time to make the team. The Mariners had high hopes for Long’s role in 2021, even if he wasn’t the starter at second. After making a bid for a number of utility types in free agency, the Mariners came up empty, presumably leaving room for Long to take on that role – even after slashing .171/.242/.291 in 128 plate appearances in 2020.
  • Ji-Man Choi had his knee examined by the team doctor yesterday after experiencing some tightness, per Adam Berry of MLB.com (via Twitter). The issue hasn’t kept Choi from participating in drills, so the team is not overly concerned at the moment. While Choi’s splits and defensive limitations somewhat minimize his potential role on the team, he brings much-needed thump when he is in the lineup. He also adds to the club as a recognizable and likeable personality. The sometimes-switch-hitting slugger adds the most value against right-handed pitching. He has a career 125 wRC+ against righties. Were he to miss significant time, Yoshi Tsutsugo could step in, while Brandon Lowe could slide over from second or Francisco Mejia could fill the lineup spot as well. The Rays would have a number of potential ways to re-shape their roster. Hopefully, however, no changes will be necessary. That said, Choi is likely to be shut down for a week to ten days, adds Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter).

Royals Roster Moves

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The Royals announced a number of roster moves today. Daniel Tillo and Angel Zerpa were both optioned to the minor leagues, while a third southpaw, Eric Skoglund, was reassigned to minor league camp. Both Tillo and Zerpa are on the Royals’ 40-man roster.

Though both Tillo and Zerpa are on the 40-man, neither seemed particularly likely to make the roster out of camp. The 24-year-old Tillo made it as high as Double-A in 2019, throwing 23 1/3 innings for Northwest Arkansas with a 3.47 ERA/3.62 FIP. He has been rehabbing from Tommy John surgery, notes the Athletic’s Alec Lewis (via Twitter). Fangraphs has Tillo as the Royals’ 38th-ranked prospect. Zerpa, meanwhile, is a 21-year-old southpaw out of Venezuela who has yet to play above rookie ball.

Skoglund will be more familiar to Royals’ fans. The 28-year-old made a total of 27 appearances (22 starts) for the Royals from 2017 to 2019. Over those three seasons, he pitched to a 6.61 ERA/5.50 FIP across 109 innings with a 39.3 percent groundball rate, subpar 13.8 percent strikeout rate, and so-so 8.2 percent walk rate. Skoglund was served an 80-game PED suspension in January of 2019. He returned late that season to spend a little time in the rotation, but without much success. He was designated for assignment last season and brought to camp as a non-roster invitee.

AL West Notes: Rangers, Lyles, Astros, Díaz, Odorizzi, Javier

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Jordan Lyles won’t get turns as a traditional starter to open the season for the Rangers, and he’s not thrilled about it, per Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (via Twitter). Rangers manager Chris Woodward told the 6’5″ right-hander that he’s likely headed for 50-60 pitch outings, at least to start the season. Lyles surrendered more earned runs than any other pitcher in 2020, finishing with a 7.02 ERA/5.95 FIP in 57 2/3 innings. Outside of a 2-inning outing to start the season, Lyles served as a starter, though he did twice enter the game following an opener. Despite his struggles, Lyles averaged 88 pitches per outing as a starter/follower. The Rangers presumably want to protect Lyles while getting an extended look at some of their younger hurlers like Taylor Hearn and Brett Martin. Staying in Texas…

  • Chander Rome of the Houston Chronicle wonders if Aledmys Díaz might make some sense as a trade candidate for the Astros. The utility man is set to make $3MM this year, and the Astros would love to trim a little off the top of their payroll. Díaz has slashed .265/.337/.470 in 306 plate appearances the past two seasons as one of the first guys off the bench. Robel Garcia and Abraham Toro are competing for the second utility guy off the bench, and it certainly makes some sense to consider a Díaz trade if there’s one to be had. That said, Diaz is the best fit as a backup at shortstop, and Carlos Correa hasn’t exactly been an iron man. The Astros could also try to move Brooks Raley ($2MM), Joe Smith ($4MM) or Martin Maldonado ($3.5MM) as a way to trim the payroll, though the latter isn’t particularly likely.
  • Elsewhere on the Astros’ roster, they’re going to need to utilize their pitching depth from the jump. Recently-signed Jake Odorizzi isn’t likely to be ready for opening day, neither is Pedro Baez, currently on the COVID-19 injured list. Cristian Javier is also a bit of a question mark, not having pitched in a game since March 2, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Zack Greinke, Lance McCullers Jr., and Jose Urquidy remain at the top of the rotation, but the final two spots may be up for grabs. If Javier and Odorizzi aren’t ready for opening day, Luis García and Bryan Abreu are back in camp and ready to audition.

What The Nationals See In Joe Ross

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The Nationals continue to lean Joe Ross’ direction for their fifth starter spot, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter). The Nats’ organization has long been enamored with Ross’ potential. But it’s been a long and winding road.

Injuries and poor performance had all but done in Ross in the first half of 2019. Austin Voth and Erick Fedde were both getting starts ahead of him, and a stint as a long man out of the pen proved disastrous. He posted an 11.17 ERA/6.27 FIP in 19 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. A .415 BABIP didn’t help matters, nor did Freddie Freeman and the Braves, who blew him up for four earned runs in one inning on June 22nd, an outing that resulted in Ross’ demotion to the minors.

Then, with the Nats playing like one of the best teams in baseball, ace Max Scherzer missed the first three weeks of August. Ross stepped in. Surprisingly, he didn’t miss a beat. He made eight starts the rest of the way with a 2.75 ERA over 39 1/3 innings. The Nats went 7-1 in those games.

What Ross found, and what the Nats saw in him, wasn’t just a solid stretch of games. It was a return to his roots. He came into the league in 2015 as a two-pitch pitcher: sinker and slider. He added a change-up for 2016. Over those first two seasons, he had a 3.52 ERA/3.46 FIP over 181 2/3 innings. But injuries piled up, culminating in Tommy John surgery in 2017. He made just 16 starts in 2017-18 covering 89 2/3 innings with a 5.02 ERA/5.14 FIP.

Those were injury-riddled seasons, but something else happened those two seasons. Ross started to re-work his pitch mix, relying less on his sinker. Instead of 54% sinkers, 38% sliders, and 8% change-ups, Ross threw 47% sinkers, 35% sliders, 11% change-ups, and 8% four-seamers. In three starts after returning from Tommy John in 2018, however, his four-seam usage jumped to 30.4% –  his most-used offering.

Ross started the same way in 2019 – with lots of fastballs. Over the final two months, however, he returned to a sinker-heavy approach, dropping his fastball usage to 15.1% in August and 21.6% in September. It took Ross awhile to find his sinker again after returning from injury, but he found it in August 2019.

His fastball, of course, does serve a function. It has the potential to be a better swing-and-miss offering than his sinker. His heater generated a 22.8% swing-and-miss rate in 2019 to just 14.9% on his sinker. His most important pitch might be his change-up, an area of specialty for new pitching coach Jim Hickey.

After opting out of the 2020 season, Ross made his first spring start yesterday, tossing 39 pitches against the Mets. Ross spoke about rushing, missing high with his fastball, and trying to focus on his change-up, per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato.

Manager Davey Martinez hopes to get him closer to 50 pitches in his second outing. If Ross can build up his stamina and avoid injury, he’s going to be the Nats’ fifth starter. The inside track is his.

From the outside, it’s easy to see Ross’ 5.21 ERA/4.91 FIP since 2017, and question whether he’s the best option. But the decision-makers in Washington likely remember the best of Ross. Martinez leaned on him down the stretch in their title-winning season. He called on Ross the morning of game five and pushed him into emergency duty, again, when Scherzer woke up unable to lift his arm. The Nats lost that game, but Ross gave them five innings just two days after throwing 19 pitches in game three.

GM Mike Rizzo knows the best parts of Ross as well. He is, after all, the GM who acquired him. What’s more, the deal that brought Ross to Washington is one of the most successful trades on Rizzo’s lengthy resume. That was the same deal that would eventually deliver Trea Turner as a player to be named later.

There’s a lot of history there. Ross was 21-years-old when Rizzo acquired him. The Nationals have invested a lot of time into his development, and if he can be the guy the organization thinks he can be, he’ll be a steal while making just $1.5MM in 2021. He even has one season of arbitration remaining after 2021.

In tracing Ross’ journey with Rizzo over these past six years, it’s easy to see just how muddying the human element of the game can be. One could look at the projections for Ross, 1.1 fWAR by STEAMER, 0.5 fWAR by ZiPS, and see not much upside. Especially for a Nats’ team that hopes to return to contention in a crowded NL East. For Rizzo, Martinez, and Ross, however, the upside is more than a few wins above replacement. It’s redemption. It’s mentorship and perseverance and the culture of their club. It’s validation all around.

Over the past couple of years, the Nats made headlines by letting superstars Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon walk in free agency. But as an organization, the Nats like to believe in their people. Ask Ryan Zimmerman, who’s been with the team for 15 years. Or Aaron Barrett, whom the Nats helped return to the bigs after a four year absence and two gruesome injuries. Or even Stephen Strasburg, whom the Nats famously tried to protect by keeping him out of the playoffs because they believed that was best for his long-term health.

It’s not surprising, then, that the Nationals want to believe in Ross. They’re going to give him every opportunity to break camp as their fifth starter. He’s also out of options, which serves as a nice metaphor while also describing his roster status. If he’s not able to put it all together this season, Rizzo and the Nats might finally move on, as they’ve proven themselves capable of doing. But for now, he’s their guy.

Quick Hits: Brewers, Orioles, Rockies, A’s

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The Brewers will defer payments to both Jackie Bradley Jr. and Kolten Wong. Doing so allows the Brewers to add their salaries even amid the lost revenue of the coronavirus era, per Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (via Twitter). The Brewers will only pay out $3.5MM of Bradley’s $24MM total money this season, while Wong will receive just $3MM. Wong’s contract eventually will pay out $18MM in guaranteed money. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter) provides a fuller picture of Bradley’s deal. The latest possible payment Bradley will receive is a $7MM buyout for the 2023 season, which he would receive on January 1st, 2025. Elsewhere around the game…

  • Maryland Governor Larry Hogan announced that sports venues will be allowed to open in his state at 50 percent capacity, per WBAL Anchor Phil Yacuboski and others (via Twitter). For the Orioles to open the doors at Camden Yards on opening day, they’ll still need approval from Mayor Brandon Scott, notes Pete Kerzel of MASNSports.com (via Twitter). That last bit of bureaucracy notwithstanding, it does appear that the O’s will have fans in the stands for 2021.
  • The Rockies have also been cleared to open the doors at Coors Field. With the help of MLB and state government officials, the Rockies can now host up to 21,363 fans per game, up from an initial limit of 12,500, writes MLB.com’s Thomas Harding.
  • Jed Lowrie returned to the diamond today starting at second base for the Athletics. Persistent knee problems limited the 36-year-old to just nine games the past two seasons with the Mets. Of course, the A’s know Lowrie well. If he makes the team, it will be his third stint in Oakland after posting 3.2 bWAR in 1,228 plate appearances across 2013-14, then returning for 7.4 bWAR in 1,694 plate appearances from 2016-18. In his last season in Oakland, he was a first-time All-Star at the age of 34 after slashing .267/.353/.448 with 23  home runs. A lot rides on Lowrie making the team. If he does, Tony Kemp and Chad Pinder better fit into their roles as utility options off the bench, writes Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. If Lowrie doesn’t make the team, Kemp and Pinder will likely share the keystone in a more-or-less straight-up platoon.

Red Sox Roster Moves

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The Red Sox were one of a number of teams to make their first round of roster cuts today. Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom announced the assignment of 12 players to minor league camp.

There are unlikely to be many surprises from this early round of cuts. For Boston, catchers Roldani Baldwin and Austin Rei, and pitchers Seth Blair, Matt Carasiti, Raynel Espinal, Durbin Feltman, Franklin German, Zac Grotz, Kaleb Ort, Andrew Politi, Thaddeus Ward, and Josh Winckowski were re-assigned to minor league camp. No one from this group was on their 40-man roster.

You might recognize Winckowski, who’s been quite the traveler this winter. He went from the Blue Jays to the Mets as part of the Steven Matz trade. Two weeks later, he found himself in Boston as part of the return for Andrew Benintendi (by way of the Royals and Khalil Lee). The 22-year-old has yet to play a pro game above High-A. Though he may eventually work his way into a swingman role, Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen suggests he’s bound for a relief role unless he can develop a more consistent third offering.

German may also ring a few bells, as he came to the Red Sox from the Yankees as the contract tax for Adam Ottavino. Fangraphs has German as the 25th-ranked prospect in Boston’s system. Like Winckowski, however, German has yet to appear above High-A. Fangraphs also lists relievers Feltman and Politi among Boston’s top 47 prospects.

Blue Jays Notes: Pearson, Stripling, Springer

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In all likelihood, Ross Stripling will take Nate Pearson’s spot in the rotation to open the season, per Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Pearson is working his way back from a groin strain, but it doesn’t look as if he’ll be ready by opening day. The 6’6″, 250 pound flame-throwing righty has dealt with a number of nagging injuries in his young career, which may force the Jays to be particularly judicious with his timetable. He missed most of September and the last week of August in 2020 dealing with elbow soreness. In a mostly veteran rotation, however, the 25-year-old Pearson represents the Jays’ best chance at exceeding expectations in the rotation.

For Stripling’s part, the 31-year-old maxed out at 21 starts and 122 innings during his 4 1/2 year tenure with the Dodgers. He struggled to a 5.84 ERA/6.15 FIP in 49 1/3 innings split between the Dodgers and Blue Jays in 2020. The culprit of the decline could be his hook. The whiff rate on Stripling’s curveball cratered to 7.4 percent last year, down from 33.3 percent in 2019. Stripling leaned more heavily on his heater, a pitch that got lit up for 11 home runs and a .737 expected slugging percentage against. Before last season, however, he was a reliable swing man in Los Angeles, pitching to a 3.51 ERA/3.60 FIP across 387 innings from 2016-19.

George Springer is also dealing with some soreness. Toronto’s new centerfielder is day-to-day with left abdominal tightness, tweets Nicholson-Smith. This doesn’t appear to be anything to be overly concerned about, however. He sat out today’s game and could be back as soon as tomorrow. The 31-year-old dealt with a number of injuries during his Houston tenure, though he rarely missed significant time. Since joining the Astros two weeks into 2014 and missing a chunk of his rookie campaign with a quad strain, Springer averaged 133 games per season from 2015-19. He played in 51 games during the shortened 2020 season.

Latest On Cardinals’ Rotation

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Alex Reyes is officially out of the running for a rotation spot in St. Louis, per MLB.com’s Zachary Silver (via Twitter) and others. Reyes will head to the bullpen. With a healthy year, the Cardinals still hope that Reyes will pitch out of the rotation in 2022. For now, he’ll be limited to 100 innings, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). He’s likely to factor into the end-of-game mix for St. Louis. He made one start versus 14 appearances out of the pen last year, finishing with a 3.20 ERA/3.24 FIP across 19 2/3 innings.

Take Miles Mikolas out of the equation for the opening day rotation as well, adds Goold (via Twitter). Mikolas has been suffering from shoulder soreness and unable to shake it. He was scheduled to pitch tomorrow, but that’s no longer in the cards, meaning Mikolas won’t be able to get enough work in to be ready by the opener. Mikolas missed 2020 with a flexor tendon strain.

Originally signed to a two-year, $15.5MM deal out of Japan prior to the 2018 season. Mikolas made good on that deal, making 32 starts in each of 2018 and 2019 with a 3.46 ERA/3.76 FIP in 384 2/3 innings, 48.4 percent groundball rate, 18.4 percent strikeout rate and 3.9 percent walk rate. Though Mikolas falls on the lower end of the spectrum in terms of missing bats, he can be considered elite in limiting free passes. After a 200-inning effort in 2018, the Cardinals extended Mikolas for four years, $68MM. Last season was the first of those four seasons. The Cardinals owe Mikolas $17MM each year through 2023. He’ll undergo further testing in the hopes of pinpointing the source of his shoulder soreness.

The Cardinals rotation is already without Dakota Hudson, who had Tommy John surgery at the end of September. With Reyes headed for the bullpen and Mikolas joining Hudson on the shelf, there’s an opening at the back of the Cardinals’ rotation. Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright and Kwang Hyun Kim are the only gold-plated locks, with Carlos Martinez likely to join them. The last spot is an open competition between John Gant, Daniel Ponce de Leon, Johan Oviedo, and Jake Woodford.

Central Notes: Cubs, White Sox, Brewers, Pirates

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The Cubs will welcome fans back to Wrigley Field in 2021, the team announced today. They have been approved by the city to fill the stadium to 20 percent capacity, beginning on opening day. “In coordination with MLB, top health experts and local officials, we developed a comprehensive plan that prioritizes the health and safety of our players, staff and fans,” said Cubs President of Business Operations Crane Kenney. “Our goal is to create a safe, clean and friendly environment for everyone to enjoy Cubs baseball beginning Opening Day.” The Cubs will require masks for patrons two-years-old and above while hosting pod-style seating and practicing social distancing.

On the other side of town, the White Sox will be allowed up to 8,122 patrons per game while practicing social distancing, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times (via Twitter). The Southsiders home opener will be on April 8th. That means every team except for the Blue Jays will have at least a limited number of fans in the seats this season, notes Bob Nightengale of USA Today. Now, the latest in roster news from the Central…

  • The Brewers are facing a roster crunch at the end of the bench. It’s a side effect of the Jackie Bradley Jr. signing, writes MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy. Pablo Reyes and Derek Fisher have impressed manager Craig Counsell so far, notes McCalvy. Manny Pina and Avisail Garcia are locks to be a member of the bench, which probably only leaves two spots. Assuming Travis Shaw makes the roster, that puts one of Shaw, Orlando Arcia, and Luis Urias on the bench as well. Daniel Robertson has been viewed as a favorite to win that final bench spot, in part because the infielder is out of options. Daniel Vogelbach is also out of options and on the 40-man roster. The big first baseman brings a limited, though valuable skill-set as a power bat off the bench. Of those players on the 40-man roster, Fisher, Jace Pederson, and Billy McKinney are also out of options, giving the Brewers much to think about as we inch closer to April 1.
  • Milwaukee may have a little bit of extra time to decide on that final roster spot, however. Lorenzo Cain hasn’t played in a week because of a quad issue, and there’s a chance he won’t be ready in time for opening day, per McCalvy (via Twitter). There’s still hope that he’ll be ready from the jump, but if not, the Brewers could roll with Bradley Jr. in center and Garcia in right, while taking the extra time to evaluate someone from their out-of-options pool.
  • Pirates manager Derek Shelton won’t spend much time thinking about who might claim the closer role until the last few days of camp, per the Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel. Said Shelton, “We have a guy who we know can go to the back end and do it in Richie (Rodríguez), who did it last year, so I’m really not thinking about it.” That certainly sounds like Richard Rodriguez has the inside track on the job. There will certainly be enough bodies to choose from, as the Pirates plan to break camp with eight or nine relievers, notes Biertempfel. That said, there aren’t a lot of proven late-inning options to immediately wrench the role from Rodríguez. Kyle Crick is the most obvious challenger, with Chris Stratton perhaps snagging an opportunity or two after striking out close to 30 percent of hitters last season.

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