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Nationals Will Make Extension Offers To Juan Soto, Trea Turner In Near Future

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The Washington Nationals have famously fielded top-heavy rosters typically built around a core of strong starting pitching. Since Washington’s first playoff appearance in 2012, they’ve advanced to postseason play five times in nine years, always on the backs of their starting pitching. The starting pitching units on their playoff teams (2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019) ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in the Majors by FIP and 5th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 1st by fWAR. Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann,  Tanner Roark, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg each posted multiple 3.0+ fWAR seasons for Nats’ playoff teams, and Patrick Corbin is halfway there after a 4.7 fWAR season in 2019.

On the position player side, a core of Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond added Anthony Rendon in 2014. They morphed by swapping Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner into the core group for Desmond and Werth by 2016. Before 2019, this unit faced their most monumental change yet, letting Harper leave for Philly as Juan Soto developed in his place. Rendon left after the title team in 2019, and it’s now been three years since Zimmerman aka “Mr. National” played a central role in the offense.

Present day, the Nats’ offensive core is a smaller unit than it’s been in year’s past, but it might be the strongest foundation of a Nationals team to date. Soto is one of the best offensive players in the game, compared today to Ted Williams by the Athletic’s Jayson Stark. Turner is one of the game’s most dynamic and underrated superstars.

Victor Robles certainly seemed like a key member of this core unit in 2019, and they hoped Carter Kieboom might step into Rendon’s place at the hot corner, but neither cemented their place in the inner circle during a rough 2020 season. The slow ascent of Kieboom and Robles has made Soto and Turner all the more important to the Nats’ future. Beyond their obvious talents, at 22 and 27 years old, they’re the youngest ties to the 2019 title team.

Starting pitching has been this team’s past, but Scherzer is 36, Strasburg is 32 and twice lost seasons to injury, and Corbin is 31. Their top prospects are a couple of power arms in Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, and Cole Henry, Andry Lara, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Tim Cate provide some backing in that regard, but there’s much uncertainty in projecting arms. The Nationals future seems to lie in the hands of Soto, Turner, and to a lesser extent, Robles and Kieboom.

The clock is ticking, however, and the cost is rising. Turner will make $13MM this season with one more year of arbitration before free agency after 2022. Soto became arbitration eligible for this first time this winter as a Super Two player. He’ll make $8.5MM in 2021 with three more turns through arbitration before free agency after 2024. He’ll be just 26 years old.

The conversation inevitably turns to potential extensions, and there have been internal discussions about what it might cost to lock their two superstars into long-term deals. In fact, there will be long-term contract offers on the table in the near future, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter).

They’ve made offers in the past, however. Per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato (via Twitter), GM Mike Rizzo said earlier today, “We’ve discussed internally with ownership about it. We’re in the midst of making decisions on what a timeframe would look like … We certainly have made & will make a long-term extension offer to both players sometime in the near future.”

Since the Braves extended Ronald Acuña Jr. to a well-below-market eight-year, $100MM extension, and the Padres extended Fernando Tatis to a 14-year $340MM extension, Soto might be the best young player without a long-term deal in place. Acuña signed his deal after winning Rookie of the Year with a 4.3 bWAR season in 111 games. Tatis signed after two years of service time and 7.0 bWAR through 143 total games. Soto has just 0.143 more service time than Tatis, but he’s begun the arbitration process, played in 313 games, won a World Series, and accrued 9.7 bWAR. How much will it cost to extend the next Ted Williams? That’s a difficult question, especially when he’s represented by Scott Boras.

If there’s any organization comfortable dealing with mega-agent Boras, it’s the Nationals, who have dealt with him over the years both to sign long-term deals in the case of Strasburg and Scherzer and to not sign those deals with Harper and Rendon. The Nats should have a pretty clear idea about what it would take to sign Soto – or if it’s even possible.

As for Turner, the CAA client might want to wait and see how next winter’s free agent market shakes out. One way or another, a market price will be set for star shortstops as Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager all sign new contracts. If he does wait, 2021 could be a make-or-break season for Turner. While he’s flashed tremendous potential, he’s also dealt with injuries that have cut short some of his most productive seasons. He finished 7th in MVP voting during the shortened 2020 season.

Xander Bogaerts signed a six-year, $120MM extension in April 2019 with the Red Sox, which could be used as a comparison point. You can check MLBTR’s Extension Tracker to find your own comps. Bogaerts – a Boras client – signed after 5.046 days of service time at 26 years old with 759 games and 15.6 bWAR under his belt.  Turner is at 4.135 days of service time right now. He’ll be in the territory of Bogaerts’ 5.046 service time days by the time he turns 28-years-old in June. At present, Turner has notched 541 games and 16.6 bWAR.

One thing we know about Washington and long-term deals is that money will have to be deferred. That said, they’ve shown willing to spend high-end money for the right players. Even though they’ll pay Strasburgh $35MM a season through 2026, and Corbin escalating salaries of $23.4MM, $24.4MM and $35.4MM through 2024, the Nats have some long-term payroll flexibility. Schezer’s $42MM deal comes off the books after this season, as does deals for Brad Hand, Starlin Castro, Daniel Hudson, Yan Gomes, Jon Lester, Alex Avila, Josh Harrison, and Zimmerman. They can also takes a $3MM buyout for Kyle Schwarber over an $11MM option. That’s a total of $73.6MM that could come off the books following 2021. Of course, in that circumstance, Rizzo would also have to back-fill nine roster spots.

Quick Hits: Mets, Lindor, Red Sox, Cordero, González

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The Mets and Francisco Lindor will explore extension talks “in earnest” this week, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Lindor has set opening day as the deadline for an extension, but the Mets have not appeared overly concerned by the limited timetable thus far. They are presumably confident in their ability to work something out in a short amount of time, or less concerned with the prospect of Lindor hitting free agency. If there were a year to allow a star like Lindor to test the market, after all, next winter is the time as there are plenty of potential options in the much-vaunted 2022 free agent class. While we continue to wait for progress on this front, let’s check in on some roster news from the Red Sox…

  • Newly-acquired Franchy Cordero may not be ready for opening day, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com. Cordero has yet to clear COVID-19 protocols. It would be understandable to be judicious with someone in Cordero’s position – a not-yet established big-league regular joining a new franchise. Especially considering Cordero’s spotty injury history, the Red Sox may want to prioritize getting Cordero’s year started with a head full of steam. The Red Sox are planning to start the season with a short bench, but Cordero’s delay could mean an early roster spot for Michael Chavis or Marcus Wilson. By adding Marwin González and Kiké Hernandez this winter, the Red Sox have afforded themselves plenty of roster flexibility.
  • González figures to find himself playing left field against lefties even when Cordero returns, writes the Athletic’s Chad Jennings. But he won’t be much help in center, whereas Cordero could see some time in the middle. While they wait for Cordero – assuming Jarren Duran doesn’t make the roster – Boston is without a clear every down option in center. Alex Verdugo and Kiké are the two players on the roster most clearly prepped for the spot, but Boston does seem to favor Duran joining the team at some point during the 2021 season. Not only has the youngster received favorable comparisons to Grady Sizemore this winter, but he’s gone 5-for-11 with a .500 OBP through their first six spring games. Though that means very little in terms of statistical significance, first impressions at this level can certainly impact an organization’s viewpoint on a player.

Quick Hits: Cishek, Souza, Herrera

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As spring training games continue and we inch closer to the 2021 season, let’s check in on a couple of notes from around the game…

  • Veterans Steve Cishek and Steven Souza Jr. are working to make the Astros’ roster out of camp, but their chances took a hit yesterday with the signing of Jake Odorizzi, writes the Athletic’s Jake Kaplan. Cishek would make a $2.25MM salary were he to make the team, while Souza would earn $1.15MM. The Astros very much prefer to stay under the luxury tax to avoid the worsening of the draft pick compensation they might receive if Carlos Correa, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, or Lance McCullers Jr. are offered (and decline) a qualifying offer at year’s end. While the terms of Odorizzi’s deal are not yet known, it’s likely to take them close to the $210 luxury tax threshold.
  • With Adam Haseley on the injured list and likely to miss opening day, Odubel Herrera has jumped into pole position to be the guy in center when the season starts, per Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer. He was an All-Star in the grass in 2017, but an 85-game suspension under the league’s domestic violence policy in 2019 derailed his once-promising career. Said manager Joe Girardi on Herrera’s chances to make the team, “We’re not allowed to punish anyone more than what MLB did. If Odubel doesn’t make the team, it would be what we would consider probably a lack of performance or we’d be more comfortable with getting a few more at-bats. That sort of thing. He’s in the running just like a lot of other guys.” The 29-year-old fell off dramatically after posting a 107 wRC+ from 2015 to 2017. He has not appeared in a big-league game since May 2019.

COVID Notes: 3/6/21

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The latest on how the coronavirus is affecting Major League Baseball:

  • Max Fried has been cleared to return to spring training, per MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. Fried had to go through additional protocols after being in close contact to a potential COVID-19 exposure. Having received the necessary number of negative tests, Fried can return to camp and get set to make his spring debut. As of right now, the expectation is that Fried will be ready for the start of the season. Fellow southpaw Sean Newcomb now faces a similar situation, however. He will step away from camp until being officially cleared, as was the case with Fried.

MLBTR Poll: Should The Twins Extend Byron Buxton?

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The Twins have high expectations for their offense in 2021. It’s a talented group with veterans Nelson Cruz and Josh Donaldson playing alongside young players on the rise like Alex Kirilloff, Ryan Jeffers, and Luis Arraez. In the middle both metaphorically and positionally, however, centerfielder Byron Buxton undergirds the Twins’ machine in both halves of the inning. He’s the player on the roster with the highest two-way ceiling, and at 27 years old, he’s in his prime. He’s also two years from free agency. Buxton’s agent has been in contact with the Twins about a potential extension, per Phil Miller of the Star Tribune (via Twitter), but there’s a lot for the Twins to consider.

Defense has long been Buxton’s calling card. He is routinely one of the more impressive performers in the grass, and the numbers back it up. He has averaged 18.3 defensive runs saved and 9.8 UZR per 1,200 innings, which roughly amounts to one season. Both are excellent marks. Statcast is similarly complimentary of Buxton’s glovework, crediting him with five outs above average in 2020. That tied with four others for sixth among outfielders, despite only appearing in 39 games. In 2017, when Buxton was healthy enough to play more than 100 games, he racked up 30 OAA, not only topping the field in that season, but setting the bar. It remains the highest single-season mark from any outfielder in the Statcast era by a fair margin.

Buxton entered the league less polished on the other end, but he has nonetheless come into his own over the past two seasons. Early in his career, he was plagued by strikeout rates over 30 percent, only average power, and well-below-average walk rates. The latter still holds true, but the Twins want him swinging the bat because good things happen when he does. His exit velocity has surged from 88.3 mph in 2015-18 to 90.4 mph the past two seasons. His power has climbed into an elite range as well, rising from .157 ISO his first four seasons to .292 ISO in 430 plate appearances across 2019-20. A bat that was 23 percent below average through 2018 has been 13 percent above average since.

Put together, Buxton’s potential is that of a two-way centerpiece at one of the most important positions on the diamond. The Twins have to be tempted to find a way to keep the former number two overall pick in a Twins uniform long-term. Buxton would like to stay in Minnesota, but the Twins are focused on keeping him healthy in 2021, per the Athletic’s Dan Hayes.

Though the idea of Buxton wearing a Twins uniform long-term is tantalizing, the injury concerns are real. The Twins have placed Buxton on the injured list no less than 13 times since he’s been in their organization, with the ailments ranging from concussions to wrist sprains to shoulder issues. The Georgia native hasn’t seen his skills affected, however. He remains one of the fastest players in the game, finishing in the 99th percentile for sprint speed in every season of his career. He turned in a strong batted ball profile in 2020 as well, landing in the 85th percentile for exit velocity, 89th percentile for hard hit percentage, and 88th percentile for barrel percentage.

Finding the right price point for such a high-risk, high-ceiling player will be a challenge for the Twins and Buxton’s representatives at Jet Sports Management. The muddled centerfield market certainly doesn’t help matters. Despite it being one of the weaker positions around the game, Jackie Bradley Jr. struggled to find the kind of deal he was looking for and ultimately settled on a two-year, $24MM offer with an opt-out. Meanwhile, George Springer had no trouble securing a deal, signing in Toronto for six years and $150MM. There were no free agent centerfielders to sign a multi-year deal last winter. The year before it was AJ Pollock joining the Dodgers for five years, $60MM and Andrew McCutchen signing a three-year, $50MM deal with the Phillies. Neither player primarily plays center anymore, however. Lorenzo Cain signed a five-year, $80MM deal with the Brewers the year before that.

Pollock is a natural comp as an oft-injured potential star in center, but he was entering his age-31 season as a free agent, two years younger than Buxton would be after 2022. Cain was also 31, so was Dexter Fowler when he signed with the Cardinals, so will be Springer and Bradley in the first seasons of their new deals. Suffice is to say that it’s hardly a simple task to project what Buxton might find in free agency – especially two years from now under the conditions of a new CBA. The Twins have maintained flexibility in long-term payroll, with their luxury tax payroll falling from ~$147MM this year to ~$66MM in commitments for 2022 and ~$57MM the year after.

But let’s put the financial parameters of a deal to the side for now, and consider the question simply. Should the Twins try to sign Buxton to a long-term deal?

(poll link for app users)

Should The Twins Extend Byron Buxton?
Uh, no. 28.05% (1,713 votes)
Yes, full stop. 20.79% (1,270 votes)
Yes, but only through 2024. 14.51% (886 votes)
Yes, but only to buy out his arb years (through 2022). 12.80% (782 votes)
Yes, but only through 2025. 12.33% (753 votes)
Yes, but only through 2023. 11.53% (704 votes)
Total Votes: 6,108

Injury Notes: Longoria, Urias, Whitley

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Evan Longoria made his spring training debut today at designated hitter, but it might be some time until he’s regularly taking grounders at third. He’s working his way back from plantar fasciitis, per MLB.com’s Maria I. Guardado (via Twitter). This is an injury that has plagued Longoria in the past, and it does have a tendency to linger. The Giants have no reason to rush Longoria, who hit .254/.297/.425 in 2020. The Giants built up their infield depth this winter. Tommy La Stella is the most likely to see time at third while Longoria is out with Donovan Solano staying at the keystone. If the injury lingers, San Francisco could also use the opportunity to get extra at-bats for Wilmer Flores.

  • Luis Urias will be out for a day or two with a hamstring injury, but it’s “very minor” and unlikely to affect his playing time beyond the next couple of days, per the Athletic’s Will Sammon (via Twitter). Urias is looking to take advantage of an opportunity to win the everyday shortstop job in Milwaukee. The Brewers are clearly comfortable playing Orlando Arcia and Travis Shaw on the left side of the infield, but they’d like to see Urias in one of those spots. Arcia has been moved around this spring for the first time in his career in an effort to give Urias more training at short.
  • Forrest Whitley is again having a tough spring. His arrival in camp was initially delayed because of coronavirus intake protocols, and now he’s dealing with a sore arm, writes MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Whitley has struggled to get healthy and produce as expected for a top prospect, but there is still hope that he will establish himself at some point in 2021. He is on the Astros’ 40-man roster now, and while the stakes seem high for 2021, Whitley is still only 23 years old.

Pitching Notes: Payamps, Mata, Osuna

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The Red Sox and Blue Jays continue their divisional tug-of-war over right-hander Joel Payamps. The Blue Jays claimed Payamps from Boston today, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). Payamps began the winter as a member of the Diamondbacks, with whom he made four appearances totaling seven innings over the past two seasons. The Red Sox claimed the 26-year-old at the end of November, but since early February he’s been passed back and forth between Boston and Toronto every two weeks. The Blue Jays claimed him on February 10th. The Red Sox claimed him back on February 22nd. Today the Blue Jays have claimed him again, designating Jacob Waguespack for assignment to make room, adds Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). This isn’t perhaps the stakes that we’ve come to expect out of AL East rivalries, but it’s about as good as it gets this time of year. Let’s see what other news is fit to print…

  • Red Sox prospect Bryan Mata has a slight tear in his UCL, per MLB.com’s Ian Browne (via Twitter). Mata will avoid surgery for now, though there’s no timetable for his return. Mata is the 4th-ranked prospect in Boston’s system per Baseball America. He’s ranked third in their system by Fangraphs. Obviously, if rest and rehab don’t do the trick, a long road to recovery may await the 21-year-old right-hander. For now, however, Mata and the Red Sox remain optimistic. He made it as high as Double-A in 2019 with 11 starts, a 5.03 ERA/3.99 FIP and promising 52.1 percent groundball rate.
  • Roberto Osuna will hold a showcase for teams in the Dominican Republic on March 12th, per MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Osuna is still just 26-years-old, but he made only four appearances with the Astros in 2020. After initially being diagnosed with an elbow injury that required Tommy John surgery, Osuna sought a second opinion and chose to rehab the injury instead. Osuna, of course, was already a fairly high-risk signing – at least from an optics perspective – even before the injury because of a 75-game suspension under the MLB-MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy back in 2018. That said, when healthy, he’s been an incredibly productive bullpen arm, most recently leading the American League with 38 saves in 2019. He owns a 2.74 ERA and 2.76 FIP over 315 innings for his career.

Padres Claim Jordan Humphreys From Giants

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The Padres claimed Jordan Humphreys off waivers from the Giants and will add him to the 40-man roster, per the team. To make room on the 40-man, Jose Castillo was placed on the 60-day injured list. Castillo will soon undergo Tommy John surgery.

Humphreys was an 18th round draft choice of the Mets in the 2015 June draft. He missed all of the 2018 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, returning to make just a handful of appearances in the minors for the Mets in 2019. The Mets traded the right-hander to the Giants in August for Billy Hamilton. That would turn out to be Humphreys’ initiation into baseball’s nomad class. There are always a couple of players who get caught in the waiver wire carousel each winter, and Humphreys is one of this year’s contestants.

He was designated for assignment in November, at which point the Indians claimed him. When the Indians claimed Harold Ramirez, Humphreys was DFA’ed again. The Giants brought him back, claiming the 24-year-old from Cleveland. Presumably to make room for the José Álvarez signing, the Giants waived Humphreys again. Humphreys has now twice been a member of the Giants’ organization without ever suiting up for San Francisco in a game. Given the depth in San Diego, it will be a little surprising if Humphreys finds his ultimate home in San Diego, but at least for now, he will become the 40th man on the Padres’ 40-man roster.

Phillies Likely Done Spending For Now

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The Phillies payroll is roughly where it was last year – at least as long as they entertain rostering Brandon Kintzler and Tony Watson on opening day. A lot remains to be seen, but it’s certainly a possibility that the pair of veteran relievers makes the team. In that case, they would both make $3MM, pushing their luxury tax payroll close to $208MM, writes the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. Wanting to leave a touch of breathing room under the tax for an in-season acquisition, the Phillies are likely done adding Major League players. Whether the Phillies should trifle over surpassing the luxury tax by a million or two is certainly worth the question, but it’s not a level of spending they’ve breached in the past.

If they are using that line as a soft cap,  there won’t be much flexibility even for a mid-season acquisition. Clearing close to $6MM by not putting Kintzler and Watson on the roster might be appealing for that cause, but considering the disaster that was their 2020 bullpen, they may prefer having those veteran hands at the ready. Kintzler was the Marlins closer last year with a 2.24 ERA over 24 1/3 innings. Watson logged a 2.50 ERA across 18 innings for the Giants. Both have been steady Eddies for the past decade out of the bullpen.

Watson, for his part, fits a particular need for the Phillies. Southpaw Ranger Suárez is behind in his preparation by a couple of weeks because of visa issues, notes Gelb. Suárez would be one of the lefties competing for a spot in the bullpen. If Suárez isn’t ready for opening day, Watson would be in competition with JoJo Romero for deputy southpaw behind nominal sheriff José Alvarado. The 24-year-old Romero had a 7.59 ERA in 12 appearances last year. There are plenty of reason to be bullish on Romero, however. He had a 3.66 FIP and minuscule 4.3 percent walk rate, suggesting better times may be ahead for the crowd-pleasing southpaw. Still, Watson is by far the most experienced arm with a 2.80 ERA/3.61 FIP in 591 career innings.

Damon Jones, Kyle Dohy, Cristopher Sánchez, and Bailey Falter are the other left-handers on the Phillies 40-man. None of the four have experience at the Major League level, however.

Red Sox Notes: Bogaerts, Latest Investment News, Closer Competition

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Xander Bogaerts will take a couple games off to rest a sore shoulder, per Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com (via Twitter). The Red Sox do not believe he should have any problem being ready for opening day. Bogaerts might be the most important position player on the roster, as Boston doesn’t have a ready-made everyday replacement for him at short. Christian Arroyo started one game there last season, but he hasn’t regularly played the position since 2017. Same basic story for Marwin Gonzalez, who is best served filling in elsewhere around he diamond. Jeter Downs can handle short, but Boston isn’t likely to begin his ML career as an injury replacement. Jonathan Araúz isn’t a sure thing to make the roster, but he could be the guy he if makes the team. Kiké Hernandez might be the best option on the roster. He has played a little shortstop every season going back to 2014, though he generally sat behind Chris Taylor on the depth chart as the primary backup. Now, more from Boston…

  • The Fenway Sports Group is reviewing the details of a private investment offer by RedBird Capital that would raise their valuation to roughly $7.35 billion, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe. FSG would remain a private company led by the current leadership group of John Henry, Tom Werner, and Michael Gordon. Managing Partner and CEO of RedBird Capital Gerry Cardinale – along with Billy Beane of the A’s – was a primary driver behind the recent RedBall SPAC (special interest acquisition group), which would have taken the company public. In this case, the roughly $750MM investment certainly helps in the big picture sense, but the Red Sox themselves aren’t likely to see much of an impact. The Fenway Sports Group has a number of properties, and this opportunity has further-reaching implications beyond, say, the Red Sox payroll. By taking the private investment route, Cardinale and RedBird would become a significant stakeholder, while FSG would get a cash influx to further their broader growth plans. Both FSG and RedBird have noted interest in expanding their holdings within the sports entertainment sector.
  • Expect Rule 5 pick Garrett Whitlock to open the season in the bullpen. The Red Sox like what they’ve seen so far, and if he doesn’t make the team, they’ll have to return him to the Yankees. The additions of versatile bench options on the offensive end should allow the Red Sox to carry an extra pitcher for much of this season, helping Whitlock’s chances of staying in Boston. In other bullpen news, Matt Barnes and Adam Ottavino are competing for the closer role, though Ryan Brasier could have a hand in closing games as well, writes the Athletic’s Chad Jennings. Hirokazu Sawamura will not pitch in that spot, despite having some experience in the role.

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