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Ryan Zimmerman Intends To Play In 2021

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The 2020 season was the first in Nationals’ team history without Ryan Zimmerman on the roster. After opting out in 2020, Zimmerman intends to return to the diamond in 2021, per Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post (via Twitter).

There’s no timetable for when Zimmerman might sit down with the Nats, but it’s safe to assume he’s not looking to relocate. Mr. Nat has indicated at every turn that he expects the Nationals to be his only professional franchise, and the love-fest has been a two-way street.

The Nationals happen to have a need at first and the ability to platoon Zimmerman. Manager Davey Martinez is used to protecting his veterans and piecing together the timeshare at first, as he’s done for the last couple of seasons. Howie Kendrick, Asdrubal Cabrera, and Eric Thames split time at first in Zim’s absence. All three are now free agents. Jake Noll currently sits atop the depth chart, but it’s safe to assume the 26-year-old with 30 career plate appearances isn’t likely to remain there through opening day.

The Nats have been linked to a number of top free agents, while GM Mike Rizzo noted their flexibility in seeking upgrades. Essentially, the Nats have room for improvement at both infield corners as well as whichever outfield corner Juan Soto doesn’t make camp in. If they were to make a run at J.T. Realmuto, few would be surprised, though Rizzo has said they are comfortable letting Yan Gomes crouch behind the plate for 90 to 100 games in 2021.

Regardless, Zimmerman’s clear intention to return ought to lend some clarity to Rizzo. He had signed for $2MM prior to opting out of 2020, and that’s a reasonable number to project for this season as well. He was tagged with a persistent case of plantar fasciitis in 2019, though he returned to slug a couple of big postseason home runs, as well as, appropriately, the first ever World Series long ball in franchise history.

Facing a fair amount of turnover from their title team in 2019, the Nats will appreciate Zimmerman’s stabilizing presence in the locker room. He’s not, however, likely to soak up much playing time. The 36-year-old has appeared in 100 games just twice over the last seven seasons, averaging 92 games and 364 plate appearances over that span. With a .263/.323/.470 line since 2014, he’s been a 107 wRC+ bat without any positional flexibility. Despite his limited utility, the team has shown a tremendous amount of faith in their longest-tenured player.

Mets Hire Jared Porter As General Manager

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DECEMBER 13: The Mets have officially announced Porter’s hiring as general manager. He signed a four-year contract.

DECEMBER 12: The Mets have focused their search for a new general manager on Arizona Diamondbacks Assistant GM Jared Porter, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). Porter has been talked about in conjunction with a number of front office openings, including the recent Angels’ opening, for which he was a finalist. Joel Sherman of the New York Post confirms that the Mets are now working to finalize a four-year agreement with Porter (Twitter links). The two sides are merely working out some final details, adds Heyman.

Porter’s background is in professional scouting, though he isn’t limited to any one area in his current role with the Diamondbacks. Prior to joining the Diamondbacks, he was the Director of Professional Scouting for the Cubs for two seasons, a title he held with the Red Sox from 2012 to 2015. Currently, he’s a Senior VP & Assistant GM to Mike Hazen in Arizona, a position he’s held for since just after winning the World Series with the Cubs. Hazen hired Porter in November of 2016.

Porter has contributed to four World Series winners, including a pair of “cursebreakers” in Boston and Chicago. Sherman offers this assessment of Porter: “Reputation as personable, hardworking, scout at heart who knows analytics, not afraid to make decisions. Theo Epstein disciple.” Porter will work closely now with Sandy Alderson to head up the Mets baseball operations department.

Back in 2017, Porter was kind enough to grant an interview to MLBTR, which can be found in two parts: here and here.

Vince Velasquez Drawing Trade Interest

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Before tendering right-hander Vince Velasquez a contract for the 2021 season, the Phillies received inquires into his availability, according to the Athletic’s Matt Gelb.

There’s no denying that Velasquez has a great arm. Making that arm work for him on the pitching mound has been an up-and-down endeavor for the 28-year-old, however. The six-year veteran is set to make somewhere between $3.8MM and $4.8MM in his final season before free agency – a palatable amount for a rotation arm should the Phillies ultimately decide to move him, especially without the hindrance of a long-term financial commitment.

Whether or not Velazquez qualifies as a rotation arm is a question that the Phillies themselves have waffled on the past couple of seasons. Out of 42 total appearances the last two years, 30 have been starts – but that’s compared to 69 out of 70 from 2016 to 2018.

Inconsistency has, in fact, been the constant for Velazquez. He mixes wipe-out stuff (10.5 K/9 over the last two seasons) with a too-high walk rate (9.1 BB%) and year-to-year arsenal uncertainty. His 93-94 mph fastball more-or-less sets the tone, but deciding on a second-best offering has been somewhat of a rollercoaster.

His slider, for example, had largely been an effective, if judicious selection for him his first few years in the rotation, but as it gained traction volume-wise, hitters took it to the tune of a .407 wOBA in 2019. His changeup, meanwhile, had fallen almost out of his arsenal entirely in 2018 and 2019 before finding its way back into the mix last season, when he threw it 14.3% of the time and limited hitters to a 26.7 HardHit%. He throws a sinker, sparingly, but it’s been thumped – except in 2016 and 2020 when it registered a .298 wOBA and 243 wOBA, respectively.

All in all, Velasquez has been good for roughly 1.3 bWAR per 150 innings over his Phillies tenure – though 146 2/3 innings in 2018 mark a career high. Still, he owns a 4.33 FIP and 4.21 xFIP, as well as an exactly-league-average 100 FIP- for his career. Even that, however, doesn’t really tell the tale, as he’s alternated above-average seasons and below-average seasons by that mark since joining Philadelphia’s rotation: 94, 125, 90, 115, and 91 from 2016 to 2020.

That there’s interest in Velasquez is hardly surprising. But pinning his value to the wall is difficult. To summarize: on average, he’s an average ML arm that manifests as either 9-10% better or 15-25% worse than average.

As of right now, he figures to start the 2021 season right back in the Philly rotation behind Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, and Zach Eflin, right alongside rookie Spencer Howard. Rumor is there’s a new decision-maker in town, however, as well as a new pitching coach, so this is their puzzle to solve.

MLBTR Poll: Forecasting The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia

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After a bit of uncertainty, the Phillies hired the guy they wanted as the first-ever president of baseball operations in team history – and he just so happens to be the only GM ever to take three different teams to the World Series. Dave Dombrowski now aims to take a two-point lead on that score in Philadelphia. To his own admission, however, “no one thinks the Phillies are one player away.” So there’s work to do. What that means exactly makes for the nebulous, but substantive difference between Dombrowski and the what-might-have-been “other” guy.

The immediate assumption has been that Dombrowski’s appointment portends aggressive spending – either of dollars in free agency or of prospects via trades. Dombrowski has a reputation as a wheeler-and-dealer, and after three consecutive seasons of floating around .500, there’s some urgency to improve, directed largely by managing partner John Middleton. It doesn’t take a genius to put two and two together.

And yet, Dombrowski himself took a more measured stance in his first press conference with reporters yesterday. So, too, did Middleton and team president Andy MacPhail. As I wrote yesterday, a focus on system building rather than immediate contention during his introduction speaks volumes about the level of self-awareness inside Philadelphia’s leadership group. While they’re not going to disappear immediately into the mud, don’t wait for J.T. Realmuto to come waltzing in the door behind Dombrowski either.

As for the new headmaster, he’s taking some time to get to know his new operation. It’s going to be a lot of sleepless nights in the coming weeks as he makes his first moves in office, such as deciding whether or not to hire a general manager. Though there’s a lot of work to do, Middleton, Dombrowski, and the Phillies seem a harmonious fit. You can add manager Joe Girardi to that group as well, whose old-school blood hasn’t kept him from recognizing important evolutions in the game – much like Dombrowski. No, they’re not the poster-children for the sabremetric, biomechanic, new-school evangelists, but they’re hepper to what’s wise in this game than it may seem.

It’s time for you to weigh in. Dombrowski is said to have signed a four-year deal, so let’s keep our prognostication to that time frame. Say that at the end of these four years, coronavirus is a thing of the past, the MLB Draft League has ballooned interest in the sport, expansion is an inevitability, and Dombrowski wants to return to Nashville to run the Music City Stars. How are we going to feel about the Dombrowski era in Philly? Just for fun, let’s frame out answers in the form of Phillies of the past. Feel free to add your own in the comments. (Poll links for app users.)

How Will We View The Dave Dombrowski Era In Philadelphia Four Years From Now?
A Pat Burrell era: a lot of fanfare raised expectations, but ultimately this falls into the 'can't complain' category. 27.47% (2,519 votes)
A Danny Tartabull era: it might have been better for all parties if he'd retired right BEFORE coming to Philly. 19.98% (1,832 votes)
A John Kruk era: solid, quirky, edgy, and a good run, even without a ring. 18.55% (1,701 votes)
A Curt Schilling era: it feels great at the time, but in retrospect it will become harder to parse. 12.87% (1,180 votes)
A Mitch Williams era: short, tumultuous, successful, but a "Wild Thing" era ultimately ends in heartbreak. 11.93% (1,094 votes)
A Mike Schmidt era: a legendary, second-to-none run of success. 6.62% (607 votes)
Other 2.58% (237 votes)
Total Votes: 9,170

Quick Hits: Tigers, Turner, Rays, Archer, Dodgers, McCullough

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Tigers GM Al Avila wants to remain patient and disciplined this winter when it comes to augmenting their young core through free agency, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. Detroit will look to add a catcher, corner outfielder and first baseman, as well as a pitcher or two – but all in due time. Detroit hasn’t posted a winning record since 2016, and they haven’t reached the postseason since a four-year run ended in 2015. Those playoff teams, of course, were led by formidable pitching staffs that included Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Anibal Sanchez, and others, as well as an all-time bat in Miguel Cabrera still in his prime. These Tigers don’t yet have that kind of offensive force, but they’ve begun to graduate some of their highly-touted arms, such as Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal. For now, let’s take Avila’s lead and not get too far ahead of ourselves. Elsewhere…

  • Justin Turner is seeking a three-year deal, per Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe. That might be a tough sell for the 36-year-old. Three years might be the ask for Turner, who is represented by GEM Agency, but it’s just as likely a starting point to give their side some wiggle room in negotiations. That said, Turner was a central piece for the World Series champs, slashing .307/.400/.460 across 175 plate appearances in 2020. That’s good for a 140 wRC+. The immediate concern, rather, relates to his viability at third base that far into the future. His glovework earned marks of -2 OAA in 2020 and -1 DRS, both of which are palatable marks. But if there’s significant regression coming for Turner, the glove is where to look first. Regardless, for those clubs looking to add an impact bat in 2021, there aren’t many better than Turner.
  • The Rays have discussed the possibility of a reunion with Chris Archer, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Given the Rays’ tendency to limit starter innings, they need the whole of the staff to be capable of soaking up innings. Archer could certainly help in that regard. Besides, if anyone knows what Archer is capable of, it would be Tampa Bay. For the present, however, the Rays are focused on players who might accept minor league contracts. The payroll likely is what it is, notes Topkin, meaning that if they’re going to add much in the way of salary, we should expect a matching expulsion. They need a catcher, of course, probably a couple, and more generally, GM Erik Neander wants the club to make more contact.
  • Clayton McCullough will replace George Lombard as the first base coach for the Dodgers, per J.P. Hoornstra of the Southern California News Group (via Twitter). Lombard was named A.J. Hinch’s new bench coach in Detroit. The rest of the Dodgers’ coaching staff from 2020 are returning. McCullough has been with the Dodgers for seven seasons, serving recently as minor league field coordinator. Prior to joining the Dodgers, he managed at a number of different levels in the Blue Jays’ system.

Takeaways From Dave Dombrowski’s Introductory Press Conference

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During a zoom call with reporters this afternoon (which was also streamed live on MLB.com), new Phillies president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski spoke on a number of different topics, including the timeline of his hiring and some of the plans for the organization moving forward. Here are some highlights…

  • On the timeline of this hiring: Team president and longtime friend Andy MacPhail reached out to Dombrowski on Saturday to try and connect him with Phillies managing partner John Middleton. The Phillies had been one of the clubs to contact Dombrowski early in the offseason, but he wasn’t interested at that time. What changed was that he was given some new information from the commissioner’s office, who recently told Dombrowski and the Nashville group that expansion wasn’t going to happen for a couple of years. With that timeline pushed back, Dombrowski decided to take Middleton’s call. They spoke on Tuesday, and by Wednesday they were coming to an agreement.
  • On immediate plans for free agency: Dombrowski doesn’t anticipate making wholesale changes in the organization right now. He repeated that his preference is to get to know the people currently installed within the organization, gauge their roles and responsibilities, strengths and so on before making any significant changes. The organization does plan to cut payroll from last season, which pours water on the idea that Dombrowski would run right over to sign J.T. Realmuto or anyone else to a monster contract.
  • On the whole, Dombrowski came across as very measured and patient in his approach. “I don’t think anyone thinks we’re a player away,” Dombrowski said of the Phillies, who are stuck in a nine-year playoff drought. When presented with the question of rebuild or retool, he unequivocally categorized the roster as a retooling situation.
  • On his trading record: Asked about a trade from his rearview that he regrets, Dombrowski mentioned dealing former Tigers infield prospect Eugenio Suarez to the Reds for righty Alfredo Simon – a transaction that occurred six years ago today. The thinking was that the Tigers had depth in the infield, and they needed an affordable starter. He also made a point to say that he’s “a big believer in young players.”
  • Clearly aware of his reputation as a wheeler and dealer, Dombrowski seemed to want to reset the record, at least to give him time to read reports, watch video, and get to know the organization. Trades made in the past, he noted, were more about matching value and team needs at the time, not as much about an inherent mistrust of young players. If he can trade for a player he likes, while giving up players he and the rest of his front office are less high on, that’s a given. But there are also times – like the Chris Sale trade in Boston – where Dombrowski knew he was giving up talented players. Sale, however, fit the timeline and scale of talent the Red Sox needed.
  • On relocating to Philadelphia: Dombrowski said that he’s planning to stay where he is for now, as nobody from the organization is going into the office. He also noted that he contracted COVID-19 about a month ago, and while it was not an easy process, he is fully recovered.
  • Lastly, to help build the GM profile, here are some quick-and-dirty strategic preferences Dombrowski noted. He’s on board with exit velocity and launch angles, but he still prefers hitters who use all fields. Dombrowski understands and agrees with the move away from stolen bases, but he’s not on the far end of that spectrum – he can still appreciate a stolen base or two. The closer mentality is not a myth, but nor is it unwise to use an arm in a high-leverage spot if that’s a manager’s preference. Dombrowski used to believe in building a bullpen around a closer and a setup man, but now depth is an important element. He has always believed in pitching and power arms. Don’t expect the Phillies to move to openers anytime soon, as he still aims for his starters to go seven innings, pitch count allowing.

Rangers Sign Edubray Ramos To Minor League Deal

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The Texas Rangers will sign Edubray Ramos to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, per the Athletic’s Levi Weaver (via Twitter).

Ramos – who turns 28 years old later this month – spent last season with the Dodgers, though he didn’t make an appearance at the Major League level. He did appear in the bigs in each of the four prior seasons with the Phillies.

In Philly, Ramos was a productive piece of the bullpen with a 3.71 ERA/3.72 FIP across 155 1/3 innings spanning 173 appearances. He made just 20 appearances in 2019, however, with a substandard 5.40 ERA/7.68 FIP and just 6.6 K/9. Though his slider is his primary offering, it’s a touch troubling that his fastball velocity has ticked downwards from 95.9 mph in 2016 to 91.5 mph in 2019.

Rockies Sign Chi Chi Gonzalez To Minor League Deal

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The Colorado Rockies are bringing right-hander Chi Chi Gonzalez back on a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, writes MLB.com’s Thomas Harding.

Gonzalez will be 29 years old next season coming off a 0.1 bWAR effort in 2020 that spanned six appearances (four of which were starts). The right-hander was tagged with a 6.86 ERA/5.54 FIP in 19 2/3 innings with 7.3 K/9 to 4.6 BB/9. He was non-tendered last week, but returns now with a chance to make the 2021 team. He has an option remaining, which should help him stick with the organization through the 2021 season. The Rockies need as much pitching depth as they can muster.

Gonzalez was a first round draft pick of the Rangers, but an elbow injury sidelined his career. He made it back to the bigs in 2019, making 11 starts for the Rockies with a 5.29 ERA/5.64 FIP. He throws a five-pitch mix on the backbone of a high-spin, 92 mph four-seam fastball.

Phillies Announce Dave Dombrowski As President Of Baseball Operations

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The Phillies got their guy. Loudly on the hunt for a veteran executive – for a personality big enough to match their sense of urgency – the Philadelphia Phillies coaxed two-time World Series winner Dave Dombrowski to leave his position in Nashville and answer the call.

The news broke yesterday, but today, the organization formally announced Dombrowski as their first-ever President of Baseball Operations. He signed for four years and $20MM, according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). As Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca points out, that’s the most money handed out to a free agent so far this winter.

Dombrowski comes heavily decorated. He won the World Series in 1997 with the Marlins and in 2018 with the Red Sox. He built two pennant winners with the Detroit Tigers (2006, 2012). He has 31 total years of experience running an MLB franchise, and he’s the only general manager in MLB history to lead three different franchises to the World Series. That’s quite the feather in his cap. He’s also the only two-time winner of Baseball America’s Executive of the Year award.

In the press release, managing partner John Middleton said this of Dombrowski:

This is a great day for the Philadelphia Phillies. David Dombrowski is one of the most accomplished executives this great game has ever seen, and we are thrilled to welcome him to Philadelphia. Between David and Joe Girardi, we now have two of the best people in place to set us on the path back to where we want to be, and that is the postseason and contending for world championships.

Interestingly, the press release also made special mention of Dombrowski’s track record of success in the draft, listing Rondell White, Cliff Floyd, Charles Johnson, Cameron Maybin, Mark Kotsay, Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Verlander, Nicholas Castellanos, Josh Beckett, Andrew Miller, and Rick Porcello among the standouts. That’s noteworthy particularly in the context of previous comments made by team president Andy MacPhail back in October when they began their search, per the Athletic’s Matt Gelb. :

Our R&D department has been good with one exception. I’m just being blunt. I look at Tampa. They’re able to unlock the hidden value or potential in minor-league players that have been around a while that they recognize something that we’re not picking up on yet. I think that’s one thing that this franchise needs to improve on. Our R&D needs to obviously help with that.

Specifically, the Phillies were seeking someone with a track record of success in player evaluation. For more insight into Philadelphia’s thinking, let’s take a cue from Brad Pitt in Moneyball: What’s the problem? As Gelb helpfully reminds us, at the time of former GM Matt Klentak’s reassignment, Middleton said this:

I think the problem the Phillies have had for a hundred years is they don’t evaluate talent well.

Dombrowski’s win-now mentality is getting headline treatment, with assumptions being made about the free agent dollars Dombrowki will spend and the prospects he will trade away. The Phillies themselves, however, are underlining some other aspects of Dombrowski’s resume. Player evaluation plays a role in every aspect of roster building, of course. Still, it’s intriguing that system building has been at the forefront of Philly’s messaging in the early going.

Dombrowski will answer questions from the media this afternoon.

Wei-Yin Chen Agrees To Deal With Hanshin Tigers

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Southpaw Wei-Yin Chen has agreed to join the Hanshin Tigers for 2021, per MLB Insider Jon Heyman (via Twitter). The terms of the deal have not yet been disclosed.

Chen’s MLB career began when the Taiwanese lefty signed a three-year guarantee worth $11.3MM with the Baltimore Orioles before the 2012 season. At that time, he was coming off five seasons starring for the Chunichi Dragons in Japan, where he posted with a 2.48 ERA. He returned to Japan in 2020 with 26 innings of 2.42 ERA baseball for the NPB’s Chiba Lotte Marines.

In between, he made his debut for Baltimore as a 26-year-old in 2012, posting a strong 4.02 ERA/4.42 FIP over 192 2/3 innings. He remained a member of Baltimore’s rotation for four seasons, finishing his tenure there with a 3.72 ERA/4.14 FIP across 117 starts totaling 706 2/3 innings. Those numbers were good for 9.4 bWAR, or 2.6 bWAR per 200 innings. While he was never a frontline starter for the O’s, he put together solid seasons in the middle of the rotation for a contender under manager Buck Showalter.

His four seasons with the Marlins were less efficient. He signed a five-year $80MM contract, but injuries marred his time in Miami.  He was released prior to the final season of the deal in 2020. In the four years prior, he amassed a 5.10 ERA/4.54 FIP across 358 innings.

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