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Offseason In Review: Baltimore Orioles

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This is the latest post of MLBTR’s annual Offseason in Review series, in which we take stock of every team’s winter dealings.

After the worst season in franchise history, the Orioles’ only must-have for the winter was new organizational leaders.

Major League Signings

  • Nate Karns, RHP: One year, $800K, up to $200K more in incentives
  • Total spend: $800K

Trades and Claims

  • Selected SS Richie Martin from A’s with 1st overall pick in Rule 5 Draft
  • Acquired IF Drew Jackson from Phillies for international signing bonus pool money after he was selected from Dodgers with 11th overall pick in Rule 5 Draft
  • Acquired outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. from Blue Jays for $500K in international signing bonus availability
  • Selected RHP Taylor Grover from Reds with 1st overall pick of Triple-A phase of Rule 5 Draft
  • Claimed IF Jack Reinheimer off waivers from Rangers
  • Claimed 3B Rio Ruiz off waivers from Dodgers
  • Claimed IF Hanser Alberto off waivers from Giants (first, from the Yankees)
  • Claimed LHP Josh Osich off waivers from Giants (later designated for assignment)

Notable Minor League Signings

Notable Losses

[Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart] [Baltimore Orioles Payroll Outlook]

Needs Addressed

The Orioles as we’ve known them are no longer. General manager Dan Duquette – hired in 2011 to replace Andy McPhail – is gone. Manager Buck Showalter – hired after the All-Star break in 2010 – is gone. Franchise cornerstone Manny Machado – drafted in 2010, in the majors since 2012 – plays in San Diego now. Adam Jones’ tenure was longer than all of those departees; after 11 seasons in Baltimore, he, too, has (likely) played his last game as an Oriole. Four cornerstones from the past eight-or-so seasons, all jettisoned during a four-month period between July 18th and November 3rd – so it’s understandable if those in Baltimore are still feeling a little shell-shocked.

The GM seat remained empty for a curious-long while, but in mid-November Mike Elias finally arrived from Houston. By all accounts, Elias is a good hire, and there’s no reason to think he won’t accomplish at least their infrastructural goals: modernize front office processes, broaden the reach of player acquisition efforts and get the analytics department up to code. Four weeks in, Elias checked the first box of his offseason to-do by hiring Joe Maddon’s bench coach Brandon Hyde as the 20th manager in franchise history. In poaching Elias (from the Astros) and Hyde (from the Cubs), the Orioles now boast a leadership tandem – not coincidentally – from the two most recognizably-successful rebuilding efforts of the last decade.

In terms of player personnel, there really wasn’t much to be done at the outset of Elias’s tenure. With no hope of contending in the near future, filling out roster holes was not a terribly consequential undertaking. The club unsurprisingly pursued a mix of interesting younger players and cheap but solid veteran types to bolster an existing mix that still includes several high-priced holdovers.

If you like underdogs, this shortstop competition is a barnburner: two Rule 5 picks trying to make the jump from Double-A (Richie Martin, Drew Jackson), while minor league signee Alcides Escobar sets the bar. It’s been three years since Escobar produced more than 1 WAR over a season, and he’s never-not-once produced an even league-average wRC+, but he’s a “been-through-the-trenches” guy, he runs the bases well, and he generally won’t fumble the ball when it’s hit right at him. Eric Young Jr. is the best bet of the other minor league signees crack the roster, and he’s off to a good start this spring as he competes for a bench role with Joey Rickard and a slew of IF/OF opportunists like Rio Ruiz, Jackson, Jace Peterson, Steve Wilkerson, Christopher Bostick and Anthony Santander.

On the pitching side, Karns was a nice addition for a rotation lacking depth behind Dylan Bundy, Andrew Cashner, and Alex Cobb. Karns hasn’t pitched in a year-and-a-half, but last we saw him he looked good for the 2017 Royals, striking out 10.13 batter per nine while pitching to a 4.17 ERA (4.48 FIP, 3.71 xFIP). The Orioles get him for $800K this year – the only guaranteed salary the team handed out – and he’s under team control for 2020, making this a pretty good buy for Baltimore.

Questions Remaining

With new leadership in place, the encyclopedic reshaping of the Orioles begins, but there are questions in the short-term that loom even larger (in urgency, if not importance). For instance, how many more chances are they willing to give Chris Davis to get within shouting distance of league-average before donating his roster spot to a youth? Four seasons at $23MM a pop is a lot to eat, but there is a sunk cost threshold, and after a .168/.243/.296 -2.8 rWAR season in 2018, that line can’t be far off.

It seems almost silly at this point to ask whether Davis could regain enough of his former on-field value to allow the team to shed some of his remaining contract. Perhaps that’s still possible, though. And the O’s can hope more realistically that some other players will perform well enough to dump salary during or after the season to come. Bundy, Cashner, and Cobb could all be of mid-season interest. Jonathan Villar and Mark Trumbo might end up holding some appeal. And relievers Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier (if he can get back to health) could be fairly significant assets. There’s not a primo trade piece in the bunch, save maybe Givens, but it’s fair to wonder how long Elias will wait before stripping this team for parts.

Otherwise, the open questions facing this roster are largely those you’d expect from a team in this position. The roster is loaded with players who have yet to establish themselves fully (if at all) in the majors. In most cases, it’s understandable that the organization has decided to allow some space for young players to sink or swim. There’s an argument to be made, though, that more could have been done in the rotation — particularly since Karns has a checkered recent health history.

Mike Wright Jr. looks poised to snag a starting spot, but it’s a little curious the O’s didn’t further explore the bargain bin, especially given their lack of near-term upside arms. David Hess, Yefry Ramirez, John Means, Josh Rogers and Jimmy Yacabonis will happily take the innings, but there’s value even in a rebuild to having vets around. Bounceback candidates such as Drew Pomeranz may have shied away from Camden Yards, but giving a minimal guarantee to someone like Ervin Santana (who settled for a minors deal) might have made sense. Even now, James Shields, Bartolo Colon, former Orioles Chris Tillman and Miguel Gonzalez, and others are all just a phone call away.

It would be hard to blame Elias and his staff for seeking some time to evaluate the in-house goods before running out for upgrades that admittedly wouldn’t move the needle. The longer-term questions are of greater importance, and they relate to roster building strategy. The Orioles’ lack of existing international relationships hampered Elias’ ability to put to use their approximately $6MM in international bonus pool money, which they’ve instead doled out piecemeal through trades with the Twins, Phillies, Rangers, and Blue Jays. The development of those overseas connections will be worth tracking in the long-term, while a push to attain Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez would be a nice short-term success were Elias to get him. An early decision point will come in June, when the Orioles make the first overall selection in the amateur draft. Whether it’s high school shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., Oregon State catcher Adley Rutschman or someone else, this is the first major test that Elias and company need to ace.

What to Expect in ’19

On the field, these Orioles aren’t likely to dent the 60+ game gap between themselves and the AL East leaders. Fangraphs projects only the Marlins to finish with a worse record, though they’re not exactly bullish on the Orioles either, pegged for 99 losses and a league-worst run prevention effort. There’s a decent collection of position player prospects who are or soon will be knocking at the MLB door – Yusniel Diaz, Ryan Mountcastle, Austin Hays, Ryan McKenna – but there’s absolutely no rush. In the meantime, Cedric Mullins, Richie Martin, Chance Sisco, Drew Jackson and DJ Stewart should have plenty of leeway to grind through any growing pains. It’ll be a year of tryouts as Hyde hammers the fundamentals and dreams of a future roster filled with athletic, positionally-flexible dirt dogs. Brass tacks: the Orioles are going to lose a lot of baseball games in 2019. Maybe not 115, but the over-under for 2020 draft position should be no higher than 1.5.

How would you grade their offseason? (Link for app users.)

Orioles Acquire Dwight Smith, Designate Josh Osich

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The Orioles have acquired outfielder Dwight Smith Jr. from the Blue Jays, the Baltimore organization announced. International pool money will go to Toronto in return, with Scott Mitchell of TSN Sports tweeting the Jays will pick up half a million dollars in spending capacity. The O’s designated lefty Josh Osich to open a 40-man roster spot.

With the move, the O’s add an optionable 26-year-old player who has hit well in 104 MLB plate appearances. He owns a solid (albeit modest) .271/.354/.401 batting line in his 810 trips to the plate at the highest level of the minors. A left-handed hitting outfielder who can at least serve as a reserve in center.

It seems the Baltimore org had some competition for Smith, who was recently designated for assignment. The cost is relatively stout for an acquisition of a player out of DFA limbo. $500K in international spending availability is nothing to sneeze at in a world where hard caps tamp down the overall outlay. In this case, the O’s likely did not feel they had terribly productive places to invest their leftover funds, which were accumulated in an ultimately unsuccessful pursuit of top young international free agents Victor Victor Mesa and Sandy Gaston.

As for Osich, he’s the second southpaw removed from the Baltimore 40-man in recent days. The club lost Donnie Hart on waivers; it remains to be seen whether Osich will pass through. Now 30 years of age, Osich is looking to regain his form after a series of rough campaigns. He owns a 5.01 ERA with 7.9 K/9, 4.6 K/9, and a 51.8% groundball rate in 120 1/3 career innings in the majors.

Chris Davis Undergoes MRI To Evaluate Hip

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  • Orioles first baseman Chris Davis underwent an MRI on an ailing left hip that has kept him out of game action since Sunday, manager Brandon Hyde divulged to reporters (link via MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko). The test was described as “precautionary,” though, and Hyde indicated that Davis has been feeling better as the week has progressed. While spring stats don’t mean much, it’s hardly encouraging that Davis is 1-for-12 with seven strikeouts to begin Grapefruit League play. The soon-to-be 33-year-old turned in the worst season of his career in 2018, hitting just .168/.243/.296 with 16 home runs and a staggering 36.7 percent strikeout rate in 522 plate appearances.

Karns Unlikely To Be Built Up Enough For Opening Day Rotation

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  • Right-hander Nate Karns is generally healthy but may not be stretched out in time to factor into the Orioles’ Opening Day rotation, per Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun. The Orioles’ lone free-agent rotation addition, Karns missed the 2018 season while recovering from 2017 thoracic outlet surgery. He’s made a pair of appearances this spring but only pitched one inning in his most recent outing, prompting new manager Brandon Hyde to cast doubt on Karns’ ability to start games early in the year. “We’re not going to put him in any position to get hurt, and we’re not going to try and push through any kind of injury or any kind of soreness right now,” said Hyde of Karns. Whether Karns will open the season in the ’pen remains to be seen, though it’s worth noting that he does have a minor league option remaining, so the O’s could potentially send him to Norfolk for a couple of outings to continue building arm strength.

Twins Acquire International Bonus Money From Orioles

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The Twins have acquired $750K in international bonus pool space from the Orioles for right-hander Xavier Moore, per Betsy Helfand of the Pioneer Press. This is the second trade of the day involving Moore, whom the Twins acquired from the Rangers a couple hours ago for outfielder Zack Granite.

The Orioles have now traded away international spending room in back-to-back weekends, having previously sent an undisclosed amount to the Rangers for righty David Lebron last Sunday. It’s unexpected on the surface, as Baltimore has recently vowed to spend more internationally after long ignoring the foreign market under owner Peter Angelos. His sons are now at the helm of the team, and they’ve brought in Mike Elias to replace previous general manager Dan Duquette, but the act of parting with international money for relatively unexciting minor leaguers harks back to the prior regime.

Of course, even after these deals, the Orioles continue to lead the majors in international spending capacity. Thus, they could see these trades as easy ways to pick up minor league talent they like while continuing to hold the league’s largest bonus pool. It’s unclear how much the Orioles have left at the moment, but they had $6MM remaining – far more than the second-place Dodgers ($1.4MM) – before the Lebron and Moore acquisitions. With that in mind, the Orioles could still be in on Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez, whom they’ve scouted since he became free to sign with a major league team Feb. 5.

In Moore, the Twins are quickly bidding adieu to a 20-year-old who struggled at the lower levels of the Rangers’ system a season ago. By flipping him, the Twins are adding a notable amount to their bonus pool, as they had just under $80K remaining as of Feb. 8. Minnesota entered the current international market with upward of $6MM to play with, but it has since gone on a spending spree, with outfielder Misael Urbina ($2.75MM) being its most expensive pickup.

Orioles Claim Hanser Alberto, Designate Donnie Hart

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The Orioles have claimed infielder Hanser Alberto off waivers from the Giants, per a club announcement. Southpaw Donnie Hart was designated for assignment to clear roster space.

If you’re keeping score at home, this is now the fourth time Alberto has been designated and claimed this winter — and the second time by the O’s. The Baltimore org had recently dropped him from the 40-man in order to claim lefty Josh Osich from the Giants, who in turn claimed (and have now waived and lost) Alberto.

In retrospect, perhaps it’d have all been easier had the O’s dropped Hart in the first place. Perhaps the team’s evaluation of the 28-year-old — and/or its non-Alberto infield assets — has changed in the meantime.

Hart has appeared in each of the past three MLB campaigns, working to a 3.43 ERA in 81 1/3 innings with 6.0 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 along with a 52.6% groundball rate. He was knocked around in his twenty appearances in the majors last year, though he did manage 41 frames of 2.41 ERA ball at Triple-A.

Rangers Acquire International Bonus Money From Orioles

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The Rangers have acquired international slot bonus money from the Orioles in exchange for minor league righty David Lebron, as per an announcement from the Orioles.

The trade represents an interesting twist for Baltimore, who has been amassing international draft money for months in various other deals in an attempt to revitalize the franchise’s long-dormant international development pipeline.  Owner Peter Angelos had long shied away from spending on int’l prospects, though the organization’s stance changed significantly once Angelos’ sons took on a larger role in the Orioles’ operations.  Under new general manager Mike Elias, the club has hired the well-regarded Koby Perez as Baltimore’s new senior director of international scouting.

After coming up short in their pursuit of Cuban prospects Sandy Gaston, Victor Victor Mesa, and Victor Mesa Jr., the O’s were left with easily the largest bonus pool of any team of the 2018-19 international signing period, with close to $6MM in available funds.  (The Dodgers were next on the list with just $1.4MM.)

Interestingly, both Baltimore and Texas were two of the teams reportedly interested in Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez, who is the most highly-touted prospect on the int’l market after being cleared to sign with Major League teams in late January.  Texas has only $850K remaining in its signing pool, so the Rangers could be trying to add more money to land Sanchez, and could perhaps make more deals in the coming days or weeks to add extra funds from teams that have satisfied their needs in this signing period (or were under spending restrictions in this period).

By specifically trading with Texas, it could indicate that the Orioles are out on Sanchez, since it would make little sense to assist a rival in signing a prospect that the O’s themselves want.  Theoretically, the Orioles might already have a price point in mind for Sanchez that sits at less than $6MM, so they’re simply trading some of their own excess space to the Rangers, who will then pursue other prospects.  Baltimore is in something of an unusual position, as most teams have long since exhausted their bonus pools by this time in the 2018-19 signing period, yet there also isn’t much in the way of premium talent remaining other than Sanchez.

Lebron was a 26th-round pick for Texas in last summer’s amateur draft.  A 25-year-old product of the University of Tampa, Lebron posted a 1.31 ERA, 8.3 K/9, and 3.17 K/9 rate over his first 20 2/3 professional innings.  Lebron pitched exclusively as a reliever for the Rangers’ low-A and high-A affiliates, though his season was cut short to injury in August.

Giants Claim Hanser Alberto, Designate Jake Barrett For Assignment

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Infielder Hanser Alberto is on the move once again, as the Orioles announced Friday that he’s been claimed off waivers by the Giants. In a corresponding move, the Giants announced that they’ve designated right-hander Jake Barrett for assignment.

San Francisco will be the fourth organization for Alberto this offseason, as the versatile 26-year-old has gone from the Rangers to the Yankees to the Orioles via the waiver circuit. Baltimore designated him for assignment earlier this week upon claiming lefty Josh Osich off waivers from the Giants. In some respects, the pair of move effectively amounts to a trade of the two assets.

Alberto, who has experience at second base, shortstop and third base, is a .309/.330/.438 hitter in 1000 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s never managed to carry that production over to the MLB level, however, as evidenced by a meek .192/.210/.231 slash through 192 MLB plate appearances (all coming with the Rangers).

Barrett was only acquired by the Giants earlier this month. New president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi has already shown early in his tenure that he’ll carry some of the trends that have been characteristic of the Dodgers over to his new club. Namely, he’s been unafraid to continually shuffle players in and out of the final spot on the Giants’ 40-man roster, regularly claiming players who’ve been designated for assignment only to try to pass them through waivers once again. In the case of outfielder John Andreoli, that worked out nicely, and San Francisco will seemingly hope that a similar situation plays out with Barrett.

The 27-year-old Barrett has a career 4.05 ERA with 8.5 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, 1.35 HR/9 and a 44.2 percent ground-ball rate in 93 1/3 MLB innings — all coming with the Diamondbacks. He’s struggled since turning in an strong rookie season back in 2016, but he did average better than 11 strikeouts per nine innings pitched over 53 1/3 frames in Triple-A last year.

Orioles Claim Josh Osich, Designate Hanser Alberto

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The Orioles have claimed lefty Josh Osich off waivers from the Giants, per a club announcement. To open a roster spot, they designated infielder Hanser Alberto for assignment.

Osich gives the O’s yet another lefty relief option. The 30-year-old will try to show that he can tap into his apparent upside. Osich has a big fastball and draws loads of grounders, but has struggled with control and carries a 5.01 ERA in 120 1/3 MLB innings.

As for Alberto, 26, he’ll either land back with the O’s as a non-roster player or move once again through the DFA process. He has turned in solid offensive numbers at the Triple-A level but hasn’t yet carried that over to the majors in limited opportunities.

Orioles Sign Alcides Escobar To Minor League Deal

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Per a team release, the Orioles have signed shortstop Alcides Escobar to a minor league deal with an invite to Spring Training. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Escobar will receive $700K if he cracks the big-league roster.

Escobar, 32, finally fell out of favor in Kansas City, where from 2015-18 his .251/.284/.336 (64 wRC+) line was the worst among all qualified regulars in the majors. Still, the 2015 All-Star has been remarkably durable throughout his big-league career, appearing in at least 140 games in each of the last nine seasons, and should at least offer defensive stability to a hazy Baltimore infield picture.

Escobar arrived to much fanfare in Kansas City after the 2010 trade that sent Zack Greinke to Milwaukee. He flashed his defensive chops early, posting 10 DRS and a 9.6 UZR rating in his first full season with the Royals, though his grounder-heavy bat was a harbinger of outs to come. After a slight lift-off the next season, Escobar again cratered offensively (a cringe-worthy 49 wRC+) in 2013 before leading a late-season charge to the pennant the following year. That 3.5 fWAR campaign would prove to be the shortstop’s high-water mark: discipline issues – a 4.1% career walk rate – sent the once-leadoff man to back-of-the-order rehab, from which he’d emerge only sporadically.

His long-heralded defense, too, has been anything but, according to the advanced metrics. DRS has rated Escobar below-league-average at the position in six of the last seven seasons, pegging him at a career-low -12 in 2018. UZR finally severed its sort-of attachment in 2016, but has never considered the former top 100 prospect a top-of-the-scale defender at the position.

Still, Escobar probably holds the inside track to the Oriole shortstop job in 2019. His competitors – Richie Martin, Drew Jackson, and maybe Jonathan Villar, who seems a better fit at second – haven’t much asserted themselves in recent years, and none are a sure bet to handle the rigors of the position on the regular.

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