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Amateur Draft Notes: Torkelson, Wilcox, Mock Drafts

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The first round of the 2020 amateur draft begins on June 10, and the growing feeling is that the Tigers will take Spencer Torkelson with the first overall pick.  Torkelson comes into the draft on the heels of an outstanding college career, which Baseball America’s Teddy Cahill notes could have reached historic proportions had Torkelson’s 2020 campaign not been cut short by the COVID-19 pandemic.  The young slugger had a shot at breaking the NCAA record for walks in a season, and Torkelson sat just two home runs away from setting a new Arizona State school record for career homers (a record held by longtime Braves third baseman Bob Horner).  Though Torkelson will miss out on these individual accomplishments and a shot at being part of a potential national championship contender, his Arizona State tenure has already been the stuff of legend, especially considering that Torkelson came to the program on a relatively low profile after not being drafted by a Major League team when coming out of high school.

Some more on the draft…

  • The NCAA’s decision to give an extra year of eligibility to spring sports will give at least some players extra signing leverage in this abbreviated five-round draft.  As The Athletic’s David O’Brien (subscription required) writes, right-hander Cole Wilcox has the option of returning to the University of Georgia for a do-over of his sophomore year if doesn’t receive a signing bonus to his liking, which “some in the industry believe” is a “top-half-of-first-round” asking price.  (So, in the neighborhood of $4MM, based on the recommended slot prices.)  It isn’t out of the question that the hard-throwing Wilcox is selected within the top 15 anyway based on his strong track record at Georgia, though many prognosticators have the righty in the bottom half of the first round.
  • Speaking of prognostication, let’s give into some mock draft action!  The latest projections are up from The Athletic’s Keith Law (subscription required), Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, and MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and all have identical top threes: Torkelson to the Tigers, Vanderbilt’s Austin Martin to the Orioles with the second overall pick, and Texas A&M southpaw Asa Lacy to the Marlins third overall.  Assuming Detroit does take Torkelson, the O’s are favored to select Martin or at least another position player — Collazo and Callis note that Baltimore could opt to take New Mexico State infielder Nick Gonzales, while Law has heard “rumblings” that Arkansas outfielder Heston Kjerstad could be the pick if the Orioles wanted to spread around their draft pool money.
  • All three mock drafts are well worth a read, as Law, Collazo, and Callis share some reports and rumors about which prospects could be on various teams’ radars, and what particular teams may or may not be targeting on their draft boards.  For instance, the Royals (who pick fourth overall) seem to be leaning towards picking a position player this after focusing on adding pitchers in recent drafts, which could lead them to Gonzales or Florida high school outfielder Zac Veen.  Callis has K.C. taking Gonzales while Collazo and Law have the Royals taking Veen, with Law adding that he has “heard they’re cool on Gonzales.”  Then again, a pitcher might not be out of the question either for Kansas City, as Collazo writes “lately, we’ve also heard Minnesota right-hander Max Meyer linked to this pick.”  As for Wilcox’s placement, Callis projects the Mets (19th overall), Law projects the Nationals (22nd), and Collazo projects the Yankees (28th).

Which Glove-First Shortstop Would You Rather Have?

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In a piece from MASN last week, Roch Kubatko said this of the Orioles’ search for a veteran shortstop: “The Orioles chose [Jose] Iglesias over Adeiny Hechavarría in their winter search for a glove-first shortstop.” Kubatko linked the Orioles to Hechavarria back in December, but La Pantera ultimately re-upped with the Braves on a one-year, $1MM deal. The Orioles, meanwhile, splurged on Iglesias, signing the 30-year-old gloveman for a one-year, $3MM guarantee (with a $3.5MM team option for 2021). 

Granted, the Jose Iglesias versus Adeiny Hechavarria showdown wasn’t the most compelling positional matchup of free agency. And while the Orioles may have shown interest in Hechavarria, these situations are dynamic, and the decision to sign one or the other was likely never quite so binary. Let’s use it as a jumping-off point for this player comparison anyway.

First, let’s cover the similarities, as both Cuban-born veterans are glove-first shortstops viewed generally as second-division starters. Hechavarria is a year older, and his deal comes at one-third the cost of Iglesias’, though the Orioles picked up the second year of control on Iglesias. Both players entered the league fairly young and both saw their first significant action in 2012 (Iglesias at 22 with the Red Sox, Hechavarria at 23 with the Blue Jays). And both have since gone on to play for multiple franchises (Iglesias for Boston, Detroit, Cincinnati and Baltimore, Hechavarria for Toronto, Miami, Tampa, Pittsburgh, both New Yorks, and Atlanta).

Since Iglesias has a more stable resume, my guess is his name carries a little more weight, so let’s start there. Iglesias, 30, has produced a total of 11.1 rWAR/11.6 fWAR thus far over his eight years in the bigs (he appeared in 10 games as a 21-year-old in 2011, but missed all of the 2014 season). The right-handed batter has traded off between ~2.5 fWAR and ~1.5 fWAR seasons going all the way back to his rookie campaign, but either way he presents as an above-average option at short. He produced 9 OAA at short last year, putting him among the elite options defensively at short.

The batting line is the question with Iglesias after posting a career line of .273/.315/.371. Included therein, however, is a fair amount of year-to-year variance. Early in his career, Iglesias was a .300 hitter, but over his final three seasons in Detroit (2016 to 2018) he managed a batting average of just .259 BA. The walk rate has been steadily below average, so when he can’t hit his way on base, his whole offensive profile suffers. He’s a difficult guy to strike out, and as a guy who puts the ball in play without much oomph, his offensive value is tied directly to his BABIP. When his BABIP falls below .300, his overall line underwhelms. When the ball bounces his way, such as in 2013, 2015, and 2019, Iglesias turns into an asset with the bat: combined .296 BA in those seasons.

Iglesias has also gained a modicum of power over the years. His isolated power was consistently below .100 for the early part of his career, but over the last three seasons, Iglesias has enjoyed a small bump to .114 ISO, .120 ISO, and .119 ISO. That’s still nothing to write home about, but put together with the rest of his profile, and it’s enough to make Iglesias a viable starter.

Thanks to his every-down status as the Marlins starting shortstop from 2013 to 2016, Hechavarria has appeared in more games and seen more plate appearances over his career than Iglesias. The past three seasons have been a whirlwind, however, as Hechavarria became a part-time player while playing for seven teams in the last three seasons. By WAR, he only comes about halfway to matching Iglesias’ career totals (5.6 rWAR, 4.6 fWAR). Iglesias edges out Hechavarria in most statistical categories, including career stolen bases (52 to 35).

Though their profiles are very similar, the real difference between the two is that Hechavarria hasn’t matched the offensive ceiling of Iglesias. They walk at similar rates, and though Hechavarria strikes out a little more, he still boasts an above-average ability to put the bat on the ball. Unfortunately, he’s never quite put it all together. He hasn’t posted a batting average higher than .261 or an on-base percentage over .300 since 2015.

If there’s something in Hechavarria’s favor, it’s this: his power ticked upwards last season, to a robust .202 ISO. The added power came in only half a season of play, so it’s hard to know if the gains in Hechavarria’s game could/would be sustained over the course of a full slate of games. Back in Atlanta, we won’t likely find out, as he’s in line to back up Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies in the middle infield.

For that matter, it’s difficult to compare the contracts signed by Hechavarria and Iglesias because their expected roles are so different – and the expectations of their clubs are so very divergent. The Orioles might see triple the production from Iglesias that the Braves will from Hechavarria (to match the salary difference), but that’s at least in part because Iglesias could receive triple the playing time. Both the Orioles and Braves probably got the guy that better suits their needs – but in a vacuum – the choice is yours (link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users).

Three Teams Played Musical Chairs With First Basemen…And Five Teams Came Away Winners

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Last week, I looked at Cole Sulser’s prospects of making an impact in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. Sulser found his way to Baltimore via Tampa Bay after being included in a three-way swap of more prominent players. Today, let’s take a look at those players. 

To review: in December of 2018, the Indians, Mariners, and Rays engaged in a three-way deal that shuffled around their first basemen. In this rare three-way challenge trade, each team came away with (at least one) major-league first baseman. The Rays got Yandy Diaz, the Mariners Edwin Encarnacion, while the Indians snagged a pair of first basemen in the deal: Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana. 

There were auxiliary pieces that fit less cleanly into our first basemen carousel. The Rays picked up Sulser from Cleveland, while Tampa also sent $5MM to the Mariners. Seattle paid that money forward, sending a total of $6MM to the Indians. Coming back to Seattle was the Indians’ Round B selection in the draft. The Mariners ended up selecting right-handed pitcher Isaiah Campbell out of Arkansas with the #76 pick in the draft. Those pieces aside, let’s check in on how each team is feeling about their end of this whirlwind deal one season after the fact.

Indians

This move – and much of their offseason last winter – was largely about shuffling money around – but not wholly so. The Indians took back Santana, who had only recently been sent to Seattle after playing one season in Philadelphia. Santana made $20.3MM in 2019, but his contract was offset by sending out Encarnacion, who was owed $21.7MM in 2019 with a $5MM buyout for 2020. The difference in their salaries, plus the money acquired from Seattle netted the Indians close to $7.5MM in 2019, though they took on more long-term money in Santana.

On the field, this deal basically amounts to two exchanges for the Indians: Santana over Encarnacion in terms of big-money players, and Bauers over Diaz for cost-controlled assets. As for the first exchange, the Indians have to count this as a win. After one so-so year with the Phillies, Santana returned to form in a big way with the Indians. All aspects of Santana’s game came together in 2019. He hit .281/.397/.515 on the year with 34 home runs and 110 RBIs. He turned in his typically strong BB-K numbers, posting identical walk and strikeout rates of 15.7% (slight improvements on his career norms in both departments). His isolated power (.234 ISO) was the second-highest mark of his career, while the .397 OBP was a new career-high for a full season. Santana’s season totaled 4.6rWAR/4.4 fWAR, good for 135 wRC+, and he’ll be back in their lineup for 2020.

Bauers, on the other hand, is a work in progress. He brings an added level of versatility, appearing in 31 games at first and 53 games in left, but he’ll need to improve at the plate to put that value to work. Bauers hit just .226/.312/.371 across 423 plate appearances in his first season with the Indians. His walk rate dropped to 10.6% and with a power mark of just .145 ISO. That’s not enough pop from a first baseman/left fielder. He finished with below-average marks of 78 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR. Still, all hope is not lost for Bauers. A career-low .290 BABIP might point to some positive regression in the future, and he doesn’t even turn 25-years-old until October.

Mariners

The Mariners’ biggest get here was the draft pick. GM Jerry Dipoto continued his rebuild, and ultimately, the swap of sluggers was an avenue to add another draft pick. After taking on Santana a week prior, the Mariners shed long-term money by swapping in Encarnacion, whom they eventually flipped to the Yankees.

While with the Mariners, Encarnacion was about as good as expected, slashing .241/.356/.531 with 21 home runs in 65 games. With the rebuild in full swing, EE was never expected to spend a full season in Seattle. Given his start to the year, the Mariners’ return for the DH was a little underwhelming, but the market for teams in need of a designated hitter was limited. Still, Trader Jerry added right-hander Juan Then from the Yankees. Fangraphs ranks Then as the Mariners’ #13-ranked prospect after finishing the season in A-ball. Campbell, selected with the acquired draft choice, comes in at #16.

The Yankees and Mariners essentially split the remaining money owed Encarnacion at the time, so the M’s did see some financial benefit as well. It’s often difficult to track the wheeling and dealing done by Dipoto, but we can give it a go here. To do so, we have to go back to the deal that sent Santana from the Phillies to Seattle. Dipoto sent Jean Segura, Juan Nicasio, and James Pazos to Philly for Santana and J.P. Crawford. In sum, he started with Segura, Nicasio, and Pazos, and the Mariners ended up with Crawford, Then, and Campbell, along with some financial saving both in the short-and-long-term.

Rays

It was surprising to see the Rays move Jake Bauers at the time of this deal, but they’re no stranger to dealing from a young core. The Rays picked up Sulser and Diaz for Bauers in this trade, while also sending $5MM to the Mariners. Considering Sulser was eventually lost on waivers to the Orioles (though he did give them 7 scoreless innings in 2019), the move essentially amounts to the Rays paying $5MM to swap in Diaz for Bauers. At the time of the deal, Bauers was seen as an up-and-comer, while Diaz was a little-known 27-year-old utility player with little-to-no boom in his boomstick. As has often been the case of late with Rays’ trades, at a cursory glance, the Rays were trading away controllable youth for a role player.

But where the Rays are concerned, it’s often worth delving a little further. Diaz quickly became known for his above-average exit velocities. And while Diaz was a little older and without the prospect pedigree of Bauers, he came with similar team control, more versatility given his ability to line up at the hot corner, and his biceps have a cult following all their own.

Injuries unfortunately limited Diaz’s production in 2019, but when he was on the field, he was dynamite. While posting a line of .267/.340/.476 across 79 games, Diaz was coming into his own as a hitter with a 116 wRC+. Diaz’s minor league career to this point was a testament to his ability to get on base, limit strikeouts, and make hard contact, but a groundball-heavy approach limited his power.

But it was a different story in Tampa. Diaz produced a career-best .208 ISO to go with a 91.7 mph exit velocity that put him in the top 8% of the league, per Statcast. His hard-hit percentage continues to be well above average, and a small improvement in launch angle and a large jump in barrels led to Diaz smashing 14 home runs in 79 games after hitting just 1 in 88 big league games with the Indians.

Not only that, but Diaz returned from the injured list in time for the playoffs, leading off the wild card game with a solo shot off Sean Manaea. Diaz went deep his second time up as well, at which point the Rays had more than enough to get past the A’s. It was a monster performance from Diaz in the biggest game of the year up to that point. (Things didn’t go quite so well for Diaz in Houston, as he went 0 for 9 with four strikeouts in the ALDS.) The Rays have to feel pretty good about where they stand with Diaz moving forward, as he should continue to be a cheap source of offense for the next couple of seasons.

For that matter, all three teams have to feel pretty good about this deal, as they each accomplished their goal. If Bauers has a better showing in 2020 and the Mariners’ prospects come to fruition, there will ultimately be very little not to like about this three-way deal. Include the Orioles for nabbing Sulser and the Yankees for getting a half a season of Encarnacion, and it could be argued that five teams actually came away winners from this three-way swap of first baseman.

AL East Notes: Paxton, Rays, Iglesias, Martin

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After undergoing back surgery in early February, Yankees southpaw James Paxton was given a timeline of three-to-four months before he could return to the field.  As we approach the end of that estimated recovery period, Paxton described his back as “a non-issue” in an interview Friday on the YES Network (hat tip to ESPN.com).  “I feel totally healthy, so I’ll be ready to go as soon as the season comes about….I think I’m back to full strength,” Paxton said, noting that he has already thrown an estimated 12-14 bullpen sessions.

If there is any silver lining for the Yankees in this league-wide shutdown, the lack of game action has allowed several injured Yankees to recover without missing any time.  As such, should the 2020 season begin in early July as rumored, New York could have Paxton, Giancarlo Stanton, and possibly Aaron Judge and Aaron Hicks all available for the roster.  It will be a particularly important season for Paxton, who is scheduled to hit free agency this winter and projects to be one of the top starters available on the open market.  While the back surgery only adds to Paxton’s not-insubstantial injury history, a big performance in whatever consists of a 2020 season would certainly help Paxton’s case at a healthy multi-year contract in the offseason.

More from the AL East…

  • Rays players will begin limited workouts at Tropicana Field on Monday, and the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin details how the club will take a very measured approach to restarting its preseason preparations.  “There’s a lot more downside to moving too fast than too slow,” GM Erik Neander said.  “Our priority remains the health and safety of our players, staff and their families.  We will learn a lot through this initial, conservative step, and that will serve us well as we continue to ramp up.”  Only small groupings of players will be allowed to work out or use the field at any given time, rather than the entire roster; the Rays will take some time before deciding whether to bring Yoshitomo Tsutsugo and Ji-Man Choi back to North America.
  • The Orioles inked Jose Iglesias to a one-year deal last winter with the expectation that the veteran could help both on the field and in the clubhouse.  Third base coach and infield instructor Jose Flores tells Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com that Iglesias already started to develop a mentor/student relationship with young shortstop Richie Martin.  “Josie shares a lot of his ideas, we share with Richie, and he seems to take all that into play,” Flores said.  “And I think Richie has actually become a better infielder just by having Josie working out with him during the course of Spring Training.”
  • It remains to be seen if Martin will make Baltimore’s MLB roster if/when the season gets underway, as while the former Rule 5 pick definitely wasn’t ready for big league competition last year, Martin won’t be able to get any further minor league seasoning if there isn’t any official minor league ball in 2020.  Therefore, Martin could wind up on the “taxi squad” rumored to be planned in support of teams’ Major League rosters, or an expanded 30-man roster could provide room for Martin to land more playing time with the Orioles.  Flores noted that Martin had been playing some second base during spring camp in order to help boost his versatility and chances of making the club as a backup infielder.  For what it’s worth, Martin had also been hitting well before Spring Training was shut down, with an .869 OPS over 30 plate appearances.

The Rays Left An Asset Unprotected And A Division Rival Noticed

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It’s no secret that the Baltimore Orioles need pitching. While GM Mike Elias and company work on building a development pipeline, the O’s are spending a lot of time scouring other organizations for excess talent to skim off the top. 

Take 30-year-old right-hander Cole Sulser. Baltimore’s waiver claim in early October doesn’t jump out as an impact move, but there’s potential beneath the surface for Sulser and the birds. Before digging into Sulser’s prospects, let’s cover the backstory. 

In December of 2018, the Indians, Mariners, and Rays engaged in a three-way deal that shuffled around first baseman candidates. In this rare three-way challenge trade, each team came away with a major-league first baseman. The Rays chose Yandy Diaz, the Mariners Edwin Encarnacion, and the Indians actually snagged two first basemen in the deal: Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana. Tagging along, Sulser went from the Indians to the Rays, for whom he made 7 scoreless appearances last season. But the Rays are no longer in line to be the beneficiaries of a potential Sulser breakout. 

Granted, it’s suspect that the Indians and Rays – two organizations with strong reputations for identifying and developing pitching – both passed up on the opportunity to roster Sulser. Sulser isn’t locked into a roster spot with the Orioles either, but he should have an easier time carving out a role with the pitching-needy Orioles than he did with either of his previous organizations. The short season very well may expand rosters, too, giving Sulser a greater opportunity to toe the rubber in Baltimore. 

So where does the optimism for Sulser come from? Last year Sulser made 49 appearances (4 starts), spanning a robust 66 innings with a 3.29 ERA. His peripherals look good with a 12.1 K/9 to 3.3 BB/9. He put together similar numbers the year prior while in the Indians system (3.86 ERA over 60 ⅔ innings with 14.1 K/9 to 2.5 BB/9). Those numbers were helped by including a 9-inning scoreless stint in Double-A, without which a 4.53 ERA in Triple-A doesn’t look quite as impressive. 

It is, however, a positive sign to see Sulser improve year-over-year when repeating the level. The Dartmouth grad doesn’t have overwhelming stuff, but he’s made himself into a double-digit strikeout-per-nine guy over the last couple of seasons. Sulser could yet turn himself into a late-blooming bullpen piece. He’s probably not Nick Anderson, but there’s value to unearth from an arm like Sulser. Breakouts for players on the wrong side of thirty aren’t exactly commonplace, of course, but late bloomers often emerge in the bullpen.  Sulser doesn’t have to become the next Kirby Yates to add value to the O’s organization. With 5 appearances in spring training with a 1.53 ERA and 8 strikeouts in 4 ⅔ innings, he was off to a good start. 

The Orioles may not have a lot of crucial innings to lockdown, but if they can help Sulser establish himself as a reliable arm, he could become the type of cost-controlled asset teams in contention ask after. For the Orioles these days, that’s more-or-less the goal. 

Orioles Release 37 Minor Leaguers

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While roster moves in Major League Baseball are not allowed during the shutdown, teams can still make minor league transactions. For instance, the Rockies cut right-hander Tim Melville earlier this week. And now the Orioles are among the clubs paring down minor league player personnel. The Orioles just released 37 low-level farmhands, Dan Connolly of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Connolly provides the full list of players in his piece.

While the Orioles, of course, didn’t part with any premium prospects, there are a few familiar names in the bunch. Sons of former Orioles Chris Hoiles (outfielder Dalton Hoiles) and Rafael Palmeiro (infielder Preston Palmeiro) were let go. Also of interest, the Orioles said goodbye to infielder Jomar Reyes, who was a well-regarded prospect earlier in his professional career.

Baltimore signed Reyes for $350K out of the Dominican Republic in 2014, when then-general manager Dan Duquette said Reyes and fellow signing Carlos Diaz could be “potential everyday major league players that can hit in the middle of the lineup.” That obviously hasn’t come to fruition so far, as Reyes has only managed a .269/.313/.395 line in 2,159 minor league plate appearances. Now 23 years old, he spent most of last season in High-A and batted .283/.320/.406.

Latest On MLB Teams’ Plans For Employees

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A variety of MLB teams have already revealed plans for the year for non-player employees. Some have instituted furloughs and/or pay cuts while others have committed to carry employees through the fall. Still other teams are taking things on a month-to-month basis, with several revealing their latest plans in recent days.

At least three teams have decided to continue paying employees in full through at least the end of June. The Cardinals are one such team, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports on Twitter. The Twins are also in that camp, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com tweets. And the White Sox are adjusting work hours but not take-home pay, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter).

Elsewhere in the central divisions, there were some cuts. The Cubs are keeping their full slate of employees at full-time capacity, but are instituting some salary reductions, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reported on Twitter. And though the Pirates will not draw down their baseball operations staff, they will reduce pay in that arena while furloughing some business employees, as Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.

Out west, the Giants will retain their entire full-time staff but will be trimming pay for those earning over $75K, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. Part-timers have been furloughed.

The Astros have committed to maintaining full pay and benefits for full-time employees, but only through June 5th, Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle reports. Whether some action could occur beyond that point remains to be seen. The Orioles are also still in flux, but the organization appears to be leaning towards keeping staff as usual through June, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter).

Which 15 Players Should The Orioles Protect In An Expansion Draft?

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In a few weeks, we’ll be running a two-team mock expansion draft here at MLBTR.  Currently, we’re creating 15-player protected lists for each of the existing 30 teams.  You can catch up on the rules for player eligibility here.

So far, we’ve done the Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays.  The Orioles are next.

Free agent Jose Iglesias has a club option for 2021, but we won’t force the Orioles to use a protected spot on him.  We will make them include Chris Davis and Alex Cobb, players with full or partial no-trade rights.  After those two, I’ll lock in seven more players:

Trey Mancini
John Means
Austin Hays
Hunter Harvey
Hanser Alberto
Renato Nunez
Anthony Santander

That leaves six spots for these 23 players:

Shawn Armstrong
Richard Bleier
Miguel Castro
Paul Fry
Mychal Givens
David Hess
Travis Lakins
Richie Martin
Cedric Mullins
Evan Phillips
Rio Ruiz
Tanner Scott
Pedro Severino
Chance Sisco
Dwight Smith Jr.
DJ Stewart
Kohl Stewart
Cole Sulser
Dillon Tate
Andrew Velazquez
Hector Velazquez
Asher Wojciechowski
Austin Wynns

With that, we turn it over to the MLBTR readership! In the poll below, please select exactly six players you think the Orioles should protect in our upcoming mock expansion draft. Click here to view the results.

Create your own user feedback survey

Davis, Cobb Account For Bulk Of Orioles’ Future Guaranteed Salary

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2020 salary terms are set to be hammered out in the coming days. But what about what’s owed to players beyond that point? The near-term economic picture remains questionable at best. That’ll make teams all the more cautious with guaranteed future salaries.

Every organization has some amount of future cash committed to players, all of it done before the coronavirus pandemic swept the globe. There are several different ways to look at salaries; for instance, for purposes of calculating the luxury tax, the average annual value is the touchstone, with up-front bonuses spread over the life of the deal. For this exercise, we’ll focus on actual cash outlays that still have yet to be paid.

We’ll run through every team, with a big assist from the Cot’s Baseball Contracts database. Next up is the O’s:

Orioles Total Future Cash Obligation: $106MM

*includes deferred money in Chris Davis, Alex Cobb contracts

(click to expand/view detail list)

The O’s Intriguing Short-Season Trade Chip

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With MLB set to propose a half-season of 2020 baseball, followed by an expanded postseason, we could be on the verge of a campaign unlike any other. There’ll be one-off rules on a whole host of topics, among them the player transactions that take place before and during the season.

While we don’t yet know when and how players will be shuttled between rosters, we have a pretty clear picture of the competitive picture that awaits. This is going to be a sprint in which every game counts. Limping through the truncated regular season could leave a talented team outside the playoff picture, or in it but in a disadvantaged position. And the broadened postseason tourney will likewise enhance the importance of winning high-leverage situations.

For teams that are built to compete right now, there’s an opportunity to salvage something out of a season that’s already sure to be a promotional and financial disappointment. While everyone will be watching the bottom line and thinking about sustainability and cost-efficiency, now more than ever, it’s also going to be harder than ever to take a wait-and-see at the trade deadline approach to roster management.

There are loads of potential consequences here for every team. We’ll surely be exploring many of them as the situation gains clarity. The one highlighted here is far from the most important, but it’s indicative of the sort of shifts in the trade marketplace we might see.

In many respects, Orioles reliever Mychal Givens is the perfect trade candidate. Let us count the ways.

Most rebuilding teams have already dealt away their most obvious veteran trade pieces. But the Baltimore organization hadn’t received sufficiently enticing offers on Givens and didn’t feel compelled to move him just yet with one more season of arbitration control remaining. The idea, no doubt, was to let him (hopefully) mow down hitters over the first half of 2020 before cashing him in at the trade deadline. Contenders would feel justified in giving up more value since they’d control him for 2021.

Now, that plan has run into some difficulties … but also some added opportunity. We don’t know if there’ll be a typical trade deadline, but even if there is, it won’t involve a slow build-up that Orioles GM Mike Elias can use to develop scenarios surrounding Givens.

On the other hand, the short-season burst will leave contenders hunting for replacements without the luxury of watching a lot of 2020 baseball. The focus will be on physical tools as demonstrated most recently, results be damned. Teams typically have more than 82 games to witness repeat testing of players before making deadline decisions. By that point, the season will be over. Teams that want to improve mid-season will have to simply imagine what is possible.

It’s reasonable to expect Givens to fare well in this analysis, whether he’s discussed in trades before or during the season. He looks the part of a monster on the mound, consistently averaging over 95 mph with his fastball in every season of his career. Ramping up the use of his change-up to equal status with his slider, and pairing it with that heater, enabled Givens to jump to a hefty 15.8% swinging-strike rate and 12.3 K/9 in 2019. True, he also coughed up 1.86 homers per nine innings, but it’s not hard to imagine that number moving back towards his career mean (0.95 per nine), especially once he’s removed from Camden Yards and the AL East. If you’re a team that routinely re-envisions how your pitchers use their arsenals, there’s no better raw material to work with.

And that also brings us back around to the point we started with: the importance of leverage. Locking up winnable games, both during the regular season and through the postseason, is going to be key. The O’s know this better than anyone, having benefited from several campaigns in which they thrived in one-run contests. Even a talented team with good health and generally good performance can experience rather significant swings in actual victories based upon just a few moments in certain close contests. And that’s all the more true in knockout rounds of the playoffs.

Givens becomes quite an appealing weapon under these parameters. He has been a workhorse, averaging over seventy frames annually over his four full seasons in the majors. More than ever, an acquiring team could envision a significant impact on its fortunes from inserting a pitcher with this skillset into its relief corps.

Further greasing the wheels here is a favorable contract situation. As noted, Givens is controlled for 2021. His salary this season is only $3.225MM and can only move northward by so much through the arbitration process. As clubs think ahead to building a winner in lean economic times, this is precisely the sort of asset they’ll wish to have.

It remains all but entirely unknown how the transactional landscape will develop. But so long as some player movement is permitted, I’m guessing that Givens will be one of the most-discussed and most-watched players as MLB’s 2020 season relaunches.

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