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Orioles, Austin Voth Avoid Arbitration

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12:21pm: The Athletic’s Dan Connolly tweets that Voth agreed to a $1.85MM salary for the upcoming season, which was the midpoint between the $2MM sum at which he filed and the team’s $1.7MM. The option is valued at $2.45MM but can increase by as much as $500K based on performance incentives for the 2023 season.

11:30am: The Orioles announced Thursday that they’ve agreed to a one-year contract with right-hander Austin Voth. The deal, which avoids an arbitration hearing, also contains a club option for the 2024 season.

Claimed off waivers out of the Nationals organization on June 7, Voth immediately turned a corner with the O’s. The former fifth-round pick had long held potential and looked like a breakout candidate in D.C., but despite some brief glimpses of potential he was never able to establish himself as a consistent member of the Nats’ rotation or bullpen. Time will tell whether he’s able to do so in Baltimore, but he’s off to a good start.

In 83 innings following that waiver claim, Voth pitched to a sharp 3.04 ERA with a 20.7% strikeout rate, a strong 7.2% walk rate and a tidy 1.08 HR/9 mark. He’s unlikely to sustain an 82.4% left-on-base rate that’s 10 percentage points higher than league-average — only eight pitchers (min. 80 innings sustained a rate at that level in 2023) — but fielding-independent marks still peg him in the low-4.00 range.

Heading into 2023, the 30-year-old Voth could compete for a rotation spot in Baltimore. He started 17 games for the O’s after being acquired, and the team hasn’t done much to supplement its rotation this winter. The Orioles have effectively replaced Jordan Lyles with Kyle Gibson for the same cost, but there have been no further additions. Dean Kremer, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish, Bruce Zimmermann, Mike Baumann, Spenser Watkins and top prospects DL Hall and Grayson Rodriguez will all get consideration for innings this season — though the O’s are reportedly still exploring potential moves to bolster the starting staff.

Even if Voth doesn’t win a rotation spot this spring, he’ll be assured a spot in the bullpen. He’s now on a guaranteed salary for the upcoming season, and because he’s out of minor league options, he can’t be sent to the minors without first being exposed to waivers. Given how well he pitched after being claimed last time around, he’d surely be claimed if the O’s tried to pass him through waivers themselves.

The club option on the contract doesn’t extend Baltimore’s control over Voth. He was already controllable via arbitration for three seasons, so the option merely serves as a means of giving the club some possible cost certainty on his next arbitration salary. If the option is declined, he’d still be under team control, but the two sides would then go through the arb process all over again — or else Voth could simply be non-tendered. As things currently stand, he won’t qualify for free agency until after the 2025 campaign.

Latest On Jurickson Profar’s Market

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Jurickson Profar is the top unsigned position player, with the switch-hitter still lingering on the open market after opting out of his deal with the Padres. Even with Spring Training a few weeks out, there isn’t much clarity on his likely landing spot.

The Rangers, Marlins, Red Sox, Astros, Rockies and Yankees have all been loosely tied to him at points this offseason. Houston and Boston have made other significant left field acquisitions (Michael Brantley and Masataka Yoshida, respectively). Colorado’s reported interest was fairly quickly downplayed, while Miami has since moved Jazz Chisholm Jr. into center field — thereby pushing players like Bryan De La Cruz and Jesús Sánchez into the left field conversation.

While the Yankees still have a questionable left field mix, it doesn’t appear they’re planning to further push payroll. Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported last week the club doesn’t want to exceed the fourth and final luxury-tax barrier, set at $293MM for the 2023 season. That’d leave them with essentially no breathing room unless they shed some money in a trade. Even in that instance, pivoting back to Profar might not be in the cards. Brendan Kuty of the Athletic wrote this morning the team has been deterred by Profar’s asking price. General manager Brian Cashman indicated on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM over the weekend that Aaron Hicks was likely to get the first crack in left field (h/t to Bryan Hoch of MLB.com).

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic, meanwhile, reported yesterday the Orioles have been involved in the Profar market. The asking price might prove too rich for Baltimore’s taste as well, as Rosenthal adds the front office isn’t particularly bullish on their chances of getting a deal done.

Profar would be a curious fit for the Orioles even before considering the financial implications. While he began his career as a middle infielder, he rated poorly as a defender. That was largely due to throwing accuracy issues, which peaked in 2019 when he committed 11 throwing errors from second base as a member of the Athletics. Since that year, he’s primarily been limited to corner outfield work. Profar picked up sporadic action on the right side of the infield in 2020-21 and didn’t play anywhere other than left field last year.

It’s likely most clubs wouldn’t view him as more than an emergency option anywhere outside the corner outfield. Baltimore doesn’t have a path to at-bats in either left or right field at the moment. Austin Hays and Anthony Santander make for a capable tandem. Santander has more power than Profar does. Hays and Profar have produced at similar levels the last couple seasons, so it’s not likely Baltimore views the free agent as a significant upgrade.

That said, a run at Profar could have freed the O’s up to deal one of their in-house outfielders. General manager Mike Elias noted last week the team is still looking for ways to bolster the rotation, and Rosenthal writes they’re considering trade possibilities for starting pitching. Hays or Santander could appeal to a club that’s willing to market a back-end starter in search of an immediate outfield upgrade — speculatively speaking, the Brewers and Rangers could fit the mold — but a trade would leave the O’s to lean heavily on rookie Kyle Stowers unless they subsequently add experienced outfield help.

While it’s difficult to find a perfect landing spot for Profar, he’s a decent everyday left fielder. A switch-hitter with quality contact skills and a patient approach, he’s hit at an above-average level in two of the past three years. Profar was a lineup staple last season in San Diego, appearing in 152 games and tallying 658 plate appearances. He hit .243/.331/.391 with 15 home runs and 36 doubles. That production checked in 10 percentage points above league average, by measure of wRC+, once one accounts for the league-wide drop in power and the pitcher-friendly nature of Petco Park.

Profar is still just 30 years old and has a case for a multi-year deal on the heels of that solid season. That was surely his expectation when he forewent the final $6.5MM on his contract with the Friars at the start of the offseason. He should still be able to top that, though his lengthy stay on the open market would seem to suggest he hasn’t found the level of interest his camp was anticipating. Michael Conforto and Trey Mancini each secured opt-out clauses on two-year guarantees this offseason, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Profar do the same once he finally agrees to terms. Topping the $14MM guaranteed to Mancini — who’s a year older and coming off a lesser offensive showing — should be attainable.

The Rangers, where Profar began his career after rating as a top prospect, still need to upgrade in left field via free agency or trade. The Padres could circle back given the front office’s longstanding affinity for the outfielder, though they might be nearing their spending limit. That’s also true of the Braves and Dodgers, two contenders who have room for left field upgrades on paper. A retooling club like the Royals or Tigers could eye Profar as a deadline trade candidate. That’d likely only be appealing if he doesn’t secure an opt-out possibility, which would otherwise significantly reduce his trade appeal. If Profar lingers on the market much longer, it’s possible that inevitable injuries around the league early in spring training could create a new opportunity or two, although his preference is surely to be signed by the time camps begin to open.

Royals Optimistic About Re-Signing Zack Greinke

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Right-hander Zack Greinke signed with the Royals in 2022, returning to the club that drafted him in 2002 and for whom he pitched from 2004 through 2010. The club has reportedly been interested in bringing him back for 2023 since before the offseason even officially began. There’s now less than three weeks until Spring Training and Greinke is still unsigned but Anne Rogers of MLB.com reports that the club still wants to re-sign him and is confident about their chances of doing so.

Greinke, 39, was once one of the most dominant pitchers in the league, especially in that earlier stint in Kansas City. The highlight of that tenure was a 2009 season where Greinke tossed 229 1/3 innings over 33 starts with a 2.16 ERA. That showing was strong enough for him to win the American League Cy Young award that year. Since then, he’s gone on to pitch for the Brewers, Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Astros before returning to the Royals last season. He’s now tossed over 3,000 innings with a 3.42 ERA over his career.

Though he averaged just under 95 mph on his fastball when he first debuted, he’s gradually transitioned into a soft-tossing control artist. He averaged just over 89 mph on his heater last year, which ranked him 541st out of the 602 pitchers to throw at least 250 pitches, according to Statcast. Despite that diminished velocity, he still found ways to be quite effective on the mound. He made 26 starts and logged 137 frames in 2022, finishing the year with a 3.68 ERA. The pitching-friendly nature of Kauffman Stadium surely helped somewhat, but he also kept his walks down to a tiny 4.6% rate and was in the 60th percentile in terms of missing barrels.

Despite the ongoing interest from the club, a deal has yet to come together, perhaps for financial reasons. Reporting from a couple of weeks ago indicated the Royals were hoping to get Greinke back via some kind of incentive-laden deal, perhaps with a lower guarantee than in 2022, which was for $13MM plus $2MM of incentives. However, it’s possible that the club’s perspective on the financial situation has changed recently. Since that report, the club has agreed to terms with Aroldis Chapman on a deal with a $3.75MM guarantee, but also traded Michael A. Taylor to the Twins for minor leaguers and Adalberto Mondesi to the Red Sox for Josh Taylor. Michael A. Taylor is going to make $4.5MM this year while Mondesi will make $3.045MM and Josh Taylor $1.025MM. Those moves combined saved the club about $3MM in salary commitments, which they could perhaps then use to help get Greinke to put pen to paper. Roster Resource pegs their 2023 payroll at $103MM, a jump from last year’s Opening Day figure of $95MM, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts.

If Greinke comes back to Kansas City for another year, he’ll hopefully provide some stability to a rotation that doesn’t currently have much of it. The club signed 32-year-old Jordan Lyles earlier in the offseason to give them one reliable veteran. Brady Singer should have another rotation spot spoken for after a breakout campaign last year. It seems like Ryan Yarbrough will be given a shot to grab a starting job after signing for a $3MM guarantee, though he spent a decent amount of time as a long reliever with the Rays and could be bumped back to that kind of role again. Brad Keller has lots of starting experience but got bumped to the bullpen in the second half of last year and finished with a 5.09 ERA for the season. Daniel Lynch was a 34th overall selection in the 2018 draft but has a 5.32 ERA for his career so far. It’s a similar story for other high draft picks like Kris Bubic and Jackson Kowar, who have career ERAs of 4.89 and 10.76, respectively.

No other clubs have been previously connected to Greinke this offseason besides the Royals, though Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports today that the Orioles spoke with him at one point. The O’s have been on the hunt for starting pitching all winter and are reportedly still looking for upgrades, though Rosenthal says they’re not confident about landing Greinke.

Orioles Still Exploring Rotation Additions

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Though the free-agent market has been largely picked over and the trade market is similarly thin on starting pitchers, Orioles general manager Mike Elias said in a weekend appearance on 105.7 FM The Fan that he still hopes to add another starter to his team (link via Nathan Ruiz of the Baltimore Sun). While Elias voiced confidence in his collection of young arms and the “upside and good variability” the group can bring to the table, there’s little getting around the issue that the Orioles’ projected rotation is light on MLB experience, to say the least.

Baltimore effectively swapped out 2022 innings leader Jordan Lyles for an older Kyle Gibson, declining a net $10MM decision on the former (buying out an $11MM option for $1MM) and then signing Gibson at that same $10MM price point. The widespread expectation at the time was that Gibson would be just one of multiple additions to the starting staff; Elias had spoken about a looming payroll increase and the O’s were (and still are) lacking in experienced complements.

That hasn’t played out, however. The Orioles have been tied to several starters over the course of the offseason, most notably including Jameson Taillon, but the team’s free-agent pursuits thus far have come up empty. Elias suggested that the O’s have “had some very close opportunities” with regard to the free-agent market but that those targets “just went in a different direction.” One rumored Orioles target, Michael Wacha, remains unsigned — though it’s not clear whether there have been recent, substantive talks. Given that he’s coming off a 3.32 ERA in 127 2/3 innings last year, Wacha seems likely to be hoping for a multi-year pact, which is something the Orioles haven’t given out to any free agent since Elias took over as general manager.

Behind Gibson, the Orioles’ only starters with even a year of MLB service time are lefties John Means and Bruce Zimmermann, plus righties Austin Voth, Tyler Wells, Dean Kremer and Spenser Watkins. Means won’t be back from Tommy John surgery until summer at the earliest, and Zimmermann carries a 5.65 ERA in 145 MLB frames. Wells and Kremer both posted low strikeout rates and strong walk rates in 20-plus starts for Baltimore in 2022, likely making them favorites for starting work in 2023. Voth was quietly very good after being picked up from the Nationals, pitching to a 2.94 ERA in 79 2/3 frames with Baltimore. Watkins had solid results for much of the season despite his own lack of missed bats, but he faded quite a bit down the stretch last year.

The O’s have several top-end prospects looming, with Grayson Rodriguez chief among them. The right-hander is considered one of the sport’s premier minor league arms, but he also missed much of the 2022 season with a lat strain. Rodriguez threw just 75 2/3 innings last year and has never reached 110 innings in a pro season. Southpaw DL Hall was used as a reliever in his big league debut and has had some prominent command struggles in the minors despite also missing bats at a prodigious rate. Elsewhere on the 40-man roster, righties Kyle Bradish and Mike Baumann and lefty Drew Rom represent additional candidates. Both Bradish and Baumann have already pitched in the Majors.

Generally speaking, it’s a thin group in terms of proven innings and workload. Adding another arm is sensible, though Elias alluded to the fact that the thin market for starters has created a growing focus on the trade market throughout the league. The Marlins no longer look all that likely to deal from the rotation after trading Pablo Lopez to the Twins — GM Kim Ng said it’d be difficult for Miami to move another starter now — and the market isn’t teeming with other options. The Mariners have a pair of possibilities in Chris Flexen and Marco Gonzales, and speculatively speaking, Elias was with the Astros front office while they were developing Adrian Houser, who looks like he’s been pushed out of a rotation job in Milwaukee. The Mets have reportedly been open to offers on Carlos Carrasco at times this winter, too, and there are surely other veteran arms quietly drawing various degrees of interest around the sport.

On the whole, it’s been a very quiet offseason for the Orioles, who’ve added a quartet of veterans on short-term. Gibson (one year, $10MM), Adam Frazier (one year, $8MM) and Mychal Givens (one year, $5MM) all signed as free agents, while the O’s acquired James McCann to back up Adley Rutschman behind the plate (taking on two years and $5MM of McCann’s remaining contract in the process). That gives the Orioles a projected $63MM payroll, per Roster Resource, which falls right in line with their end-of-season total in 2022.

That payroll projection runs counter to Elias’ August comments, wherein he indicated that the team’s plan was to “significantly escalate the payroll.” Elias said this past Friday that it’s been a “competitive winter” in terms of player acquisition, suggesting the O’s have had more irons in the fire but not yet pulled through additional signings/trades of note. He added that he and his staff remain focused on improving the roster between now and the start of spring training, though obviously the clock is ticking on that goal and many avenues to accomplish it have already been closed.

Read The Transcript Of Our Chat With Knuckleballer Mickey Jannis

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MLB player chats are back!  Last year, MLBTR readers chatted with 13 different former and current MLB players, and it was a blast.  This year, we’ve got more than 25 on tap.  If you’re a former or current MLB player, we’d love to host you for a chat!  It’s a great time, and you get to choose which questions you publish and answer.  Click here to contact us.

Today’s chat guest, pitcher Mickey Jannis, is a study in perseverance.  Mickey was drafted by the Rays in the 44th round out of California State University, Bakersfield – a draft round that doesn’t even exist anymore.  By 2012 he found himself in independent ball, at which point he converted to a knuckleball pitcher.  After grinding it out for four years with teams like the Lake Erie Crushers, Bridgeport Bluefish, and Southern Maryland Blue Crabs, Jannis managed to land a minor league deal with the Mets.

Jannis honed his craft for three years in the Mets organization, reaching Triple-A.  He then inked a deal with the Orioles, only to see the minor league season cancelled in 2020.  Jannis stuck with the O’s, and was rewarded with his lone big league opportunity to date in 2021.  On June 23rd, 2021 at Camden Yards, Jannis entered the losing side of a 6-0 game against the heart of the Astros’ order.  His first opponent was the dangerous Yordan Alvarez, and Jannis caught him looking.  Though Jannis was not able to make it through the rest of the outing unscathed, he’d made it to the big leagues as a 33-year-old rookie knuckleballer after 12 years of minor league baseball.

19 months later, Jannis remains the last knuckleballer to pitch in the Major Leagues.  The knuckleball is a lonely road and often a last resort for a pitcher, but this spinless wonder has given us multiple Hall of Famers and All-Stars.  The most recent major success with the pitch was R.A. Dickey, who won the NL Cy Young award in 2012 and pitched successfully through 2017, his age-42 season.

MLB teams haven’t cracked the code on the knuckleball, and most seemingly have not figured out a way to teach the pitch.  Who knows, maybe the pendulum will swing and the lowest possible spin rate will become the new market inefficiency.  For Mickey Jannis’ sake, we’d love to see it.  As Mickey puts it, he’s “currently working out for teams, trying to keep the knuckleball alive!”  You can follow him on Twitter and Instagram @mickeyjannis.

Today, Mickey answered questions from MLBTR readers for over an hour.  Click here to read the transcript.

John Angelos Hopes Orioles’ Payroll Can Return To Top Half Of League

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The Orioles have been mired in a lengthy rebuild for a number of years now, but as the team shows signs of a return to competitiveness there come the inevitable questions about how far a team is willing to bump payroll to maximize their window.

In 2022, the team’s opening day payroll was the lowest in all of baseball, the fourth straight year it ranked in the bottom five in the league, according to Cot’s Baseball. Of course, Baltimore was deep in a rebuild during that time and not focused on adding significant contracts. Yet as the team returns to relevance on the heels of an 83-79 2022 season, O’s fans would rightfully hope the team would be prepared to bump payroll to supplement their exciting young core.

“I’d love to be sitting in New York with $300 million payrolls. You’ve got to build it like any small, medium or large business. It’s cyclical, and then you hope that you can continue to feed that cycle, and I think we will be able to [return to the top half of the league],” Orioles CEO and chairman John Angelos said on 105.7 The Fan (via the Baltimore Sun).

History would suggest that the Orioles will do just that. Between 2011-18 the team regularly sat in the middle-to-upper part of the league in terms of payroll, a period in which the team made three playoff appearances out of the competitive AL East. That saw Opening Day payroll rise as high as $164MM in 2017, around four times as high as their Opening Day figure last season.

The team certainly has room to add payroll, yet it’s been a largely quiet winter for Baltimore. They’ve signed veteran starter Kyle Gibson to a one-year, $10MM deal, infielder Adam Frazier for $8MM and reliever Mychal Givens for $5MM. Those modest additions leave them on track for a 2023 payroll of $63MM, according to Fangraphs, that would have it on track to be the second lowest in baseball, per Cot’s.

Orioles fans would have every right to be a bit frustrated by that. GM Mike Elias says the team is still pursuing upgrades and would like to add another starter, according to the Baltimore Sun.

“We had some very close opportunities where it just went in a different direction,” Elias said. “We’ve been talking to everybody, there’s nothing imminent as of this afternoon, but that changes with sort of one text, one phone call sometimes. We really like our team. We see areas where we can get better, and we’re trying to pursue those players, but there’s competition out there.”

With the free agent market largely thinned out, it does appear that the trade market would be Baltimore’s avenue to any upgrades. The Orioles have one of the top farm systems in all of baseball, including eight players on Baseball America’s recently released Top 100 list, so do have a number of prospects that could be used to get a deal done. Of course, a number of those players will be viewed as long term building blocks in Baltimore, but the team could tap into their prospect wealth to put themselves in a better position to compete in 2023.

Orioles Sign Reed Garrett To Minor League Deal

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The Orioles announced Thursday that they’ve signed right-handed reliever Reed Garrett to a minor league contract. He’ll likely vie for a roster spot in big league camp this spring.

Garrett, 30, was with the Nationals organization in 2022, pitching 9 1/3 innings at the big league level and another 47 1/3 frames of Triple-A ball. He yielded an unsightly seven runs on 13 hits and eight walks during that brief Major League cup of coffee, but Garrett was quite good with the Nats’ Triple-A club, notching a 3.04 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate, 9.2% walk rate and 47.4% ground-ball rate.

Back in 2018, Garrett was the fifth pick in the Rule 5 Draft, going from the Rangers organization to the Tigers, where he’d make his MLB debut the following season. He tossed 15 1/3 frames with Detroit but struggled with his command and the long ball in that time, yielding 14 runs before being designated for assignment and returned to Texas.

Those brief looks in 2019 and 2022 are Garrett’s only big league experience to date, and they’ve resulted in a combined 7.66 ERA with more walks (21) than strikeouts (16) over the life of 24 2/3 innings. Obviously, those results don’t generate much cause for optimism, but Garrett has had success both in Triple-A (3.87 ERA in parts of three seasons) and during a two-year run with the Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball (3.46 ERA in 106 2/3 frames). Between that success and Garrett’s intriguing fastball (96 mph average with above-average spin), the O’s saw enough to give the righty a chance to pitch his way into their bullpen plans during the upcoming 2023 season.

Post-Tommy John Players That Could Impact 2023

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News items about Tommy John surgeries are fairly commonplace in baseball circles, but there’s no doubting it’s a significant event for the impacted player. It usually takes over a year to return to form, with a multi-stage rehabilitation process required to regain functionality.

Once a player gets back into game shape, there’s no guarantee the results will be the same. Justin Verlander looked just as good as ever in 2022, but Mike Clevinger didn’t get his velocity all the way back and saw his strikeout rate dip. He could still take another step forward in 2023 now that he’s another year removed from the procedure, but it goes to show that there are no guarantees about what happens in the aftermath.

Here are some players who went under the knife over the past year or so and who will be looking for good progress in 2023, both for their teams and themselves. Huge shoutout to the Tommy John Surgery list for having these details and so much more.

Forrest Whitley, Astros — Surgery Date: March 2021

Whitley, 25, was once considered one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, but his progress has been stalled by various factors. He missed 50 games in 2018 due to a drug suspension, and injuries have hampered him in the years since. He returned from his layoff late last year and tossed 40 innings in the minors but walked 14.5% of batters faced. The Astros already have a great rotation without him, but if Whitley could get back to the form that made him such a hyped prospect, they would be even more loaded.

Kirby Yates, Braves — March 2021

Yates, 36 in March, was one of the best relievers in the league in 2018 and 2019, arguably the best. He posted a 1.67 ERA over 125 games, striking out 38.7% of batters faced, walking just 6.1% of them and getting grounders on 45.2% of balls in play. Since then, however, he’s thrown just 11 1/3 innings. Seven of those came late in the 2022  season, though Yates gave up four runs on six hits and five walks in seven innings. This will be his first full season back. The Braves have a strong bullpen even if Yates can’t get back to peak form, but they’ll likely be in a tight division race and that kind of elite stuff would provide a nice boost.

José Leclerc and Jonathan Hernández, Rangers — March and April 2021, respectively

Leclerc, 29, seemed to be establishing himself as an excellent reliever in 2018. He got into 59 games for the Rangers and posted a 1.56 ERA, getting 12 saves and 15 holds in the process. A .211 BABIP surely helped, but there was a lot to like. He took a step back in 2019 with a 4.33 ERA and then missed most of the following two years. Leclerc returned in June of last year and struggled at first before posting a 2.01 ERA from July onwards. Hernández had a 2.90 ERA in 2020 before missing the 2021 campaign. He returned last year and posted a 2.97 ERA, but with concerning peripherals. His 6.4% walk rate from the former campaign jumped to 13% while his strikeout rate fell from 24.8% to 20.6%. On the more encouraging side, his ground ball rate went from 45.7% to 62.4%. The Rangers totally overhauled their rotation without doing much to the bullpen, but they could potentially get a boost from within if Leclerc and/or Hernández look good this year.

Adrián Morejón, Padres — April 2021

Once considered a top pitching prospect, Morejón, 24 next month, has been slowed by various injuries. He returned in 2022 but worked only in relief, tossing 34 innings in the majors and 13 1/3 in the minors. The Padres have some uncertainty in the back of their rotation that Morejón could help with if he stays healthy, but he’ll likely have workload concerns after so much missed time.

James Paxton, Red Sox — April 2021

Paxton, 34, had a great four-year run with the Mariners and Yankees from 2016 to 2019. However, he’s hardly pitched over the last three years due to various arm issues. He got back on the mound last summer while attempting to come back from Tommy John but then suffered a lat tear that halted his comeback effort. The Red Sox then had the choice to trigger a two-year option on the lefty worth $26MM, which they turned down based on his uncertain health outlook. He then had a $4MM player option that he triggered and will be with the Sox for 2023. He and Chris Sale would have made for a formidable one-two punch at the top of a rotation a few years ago, but neither has been healthy and effective for quite some time. Their status this year figures to have a huge impact on the fortunes of the Sox for the upcoming campaign.

Dustin May, Dodgers — May 2021

May, 25, returned late last year and was able to make six starts for the Dodgers. He posted a 4.50 ERA in that time and struck out 22.8% of batters faced, with both of those numbers paling in comparison to his pre-surgery form. The Dodgers let Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney depart from their 2022 rotation, while bringing in Noah Syndergaard. The quiet offseason will be easier to accept if May can post results like he did over 2019-2021: 2.93 ERA, 24.2% strikeout rate, 5.9% walk rate, 51.6% ground ball rate.

Joey Lucchesi, Mets — June 2021

Lucchesi, 30 in June, made 56 starts for the Padres in 2018 and 2019 with a 4.14 ERA. He didn’t get much of an opportunity in 2020 and was flipped to the Mets as part of the Joe Musgrove trade. He isn’t one of the club’s five best starters right now, but their rotation features four veterans who are 34 or older in Verlander, Max Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco and José Quintana. Also, Kodai Senga is making the transition from Japan, where starters frequently only pitch once a week. The club will surely need to rely on its depth this year at some point, making Lucchesi a key part of the equation.

Spencer Turnbull, Tigers — July 2021

Turnbull, 30, was seeming to make progress towards being a quality starter for the Tigers. He posted a 4.61 ERA in 2019 but got that down to 3.97 in 2020. He pushed it down even more in 2021, registering a 2.88 ERA over nine starts before getting shut down and requiring surgery. The Tigers seem likely to be without Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to start the year as those pitchers deal with their own injuries. That could leave a path for Turnbull to get back on track.

Tyler Glasnow, Rays — August 2021

Glasnow, 29, didn’t live up to expectations with the Pirates but made good on his prospect pedigree after getting traded to the Rays. From 2019 to 2021, he had a 2.80 ERA while striking out 35.9% of batters faced and walking just 7.8% of them. Tommy John surgery put him out of action for a while but he was able to return late last year, making two starts in the regular season and one in the postseason. Glasnow has looked like an ace at times but still hasn’t maintained it over an extended stretch, still never reaching 115 innings in a major league season. The Rays have been fairly quiet this winter, but a healthy Glasnow is arguably a bigger upgrade to their roster than any move they could have made.

Tejay Antone, Reds — August 2021

Antone, 29, debuted in 2020 and was excellent out of the Reds’ bullpen. Over that year and 2021, he tossed 69 innings with a 2.48 ERA, 32.3% strikeout rate and 48% ground ball rate. The walks were a little high at 10.8% but he was still able to be incredibly effective regardless. He isn’t slated to reach free agency until after 2025, but the rebuilding Reds might have to consider a deadline deal if Antone is healthy and pitching well this summer.

Garrett Crochet, White Sox — April 2022

Crochet, 24 in June, was selected 11th overall in the 2020 draft and made his MLB debut later that year. Between his five appearances in 2020 and 54 more the following year, he has a 2.54 ERA and 29% strikeout rate. He’ll likely miss at least part of the upcoming campaign but the club is planning on keeping him in a relief role, which could help him return quicker.

Luke Jackson, Giants — April 2022

Jackson, 31, had a huge breakout with the Braves in 2021. He tossed 63 2/3 innings with a 1.98 ERA, striking out 26.8% of batters faced while getting grounders at a healthy 52.5% clip. He wasn’t as effective in the playoffs but nonetheless was part of the club’s World Series victory that year. He reached free agency and signed with the Giants, who are taking a shot on a return to form, though Jackson might miss the first couple of months of the 2023 season.

John Means, Orioles — April 2022

Means, 30 in April, was one of the few highlights for the Orioles during their leanest rebuilding years. He has a 3.81 ERA in 356 2/3 career innings, keeping his walks down to an excellent 5% rate. The Orioles took a huge step forward last year, graduating many of their top prospects and actually flirting with postseason contention. They’ll be looking to make more progress this year, but the rotation is still lacking in proven options. Getting Means back into the mix would be a big help if some of the younger guys struggle.

Chris Paddack, Twins — May 2022

Paddack, 27, had a great debut with the Padres in 2019, making 26 starts with a 3.33 ERA. His results fell off in the next two seasons, and he dealt with an elbow strain late in the 2021 season, but the Twins still liked him enough to acquire him as part of their return for Taylor Rogers. He was only able to make five starts before landing on the shelf. Their faith doesn’t seem to have wavered, as they recently signed him to a three-year extension. The Twins have a solid rotation on paper, but nearly the entire group landed on the injured list at some point in 2022. Kenta Maeda missed the whole season while rehabbing from an internal brace procedure, a modification of Tommy John surgery. Since injuries were the big story for the Twins in 2022, better health and/or better depth will be important in 2023.

Chad Green, Free Agent — June 2022

Green, 32 in May, spent the past seven seasons pitching for the Yankees. He tossed 383 2/3 innings in that time with a 3.17 ERA, striking out 32.5% of batters faced against a 6.3% walk rate. Unfortunately, he required Tommy John just a few months away from qualifying for free agency. He has yet to sign with a club, but players in this position often sign two-year deals that cover their rehab and give the team an extra year of control. If Green can find himself a deal like that, he could be a wild card down the stretch.

Casey Mize, Tigers — June 2022

Mize, 26 in May, was selected first overall by the Tigers in 2018. He posted a solid 3.71 ERA in 2021, but with disappointing underlying metrics. He only struck out 19.3% of batters faced and had a much higher 4.92 xERA, 4.71 FIP and 4.45 SIERA. After a dreadful 2022 season, the Tigers need to see how Turnbull, Mize, Skubal and Manning look this year before deciding how to proceed for the future.

Hyun Jin Ryu, Blue Jays — June 2022

Ryu, 36 in March, has oscillated between being injured and dominant for much of his career. He signed a four-year deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2020 and posted a 2.69 ERA that year, coming in third in the AL Cy Young voting. His ERA ticked up to 4.37 in 2021, and Ryu struggled even more last year before going under the knife. The Jays have a solid front four in their rotation but uncertainty at the back. Ryu is targeting a July return, and his health at that time could impact how the Jays approach the trade deadline.

Andrew Kittredge, Rays — June 2022

Kittredge, 33 in March, dominated in 2021 by posting a 1.88 ERA over 71 2/3 innings. He struck out 27.3% of batters he faced while walking just 5.3% of them and also got grounders on 53.5% of balls in play. He took a step back last year but made multiple trips to the injured list and likely wasn’t 100%. He’ll surely miss the first several months of the season but could jump into Tampa’s bullpen down the stretch.

Walker Buehler, Dodgers — August 2022

Buehler, 28, has an excellent track record for the Dodgers, having posted a 3.02 ERA in 638 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 27% of opponents while giving out free passes to just 6.3% of them. The Dodgers will have to get by without him for the majority of 2023, though there’s a chance he could be a late addition to the roster if all goes well. His August surgery makes him roughly one year behind Glasnow, who was able to return late in 2022. However, Glasnow’s procedure was August 4th of 2021 while Buehler’s was on the 23rd of last year. Still, if the Dodgers make a deep postseason run, that could give Buehler the runway he needs to make a landing this year.

September 2022 Or Later: Shane Baz, Anthony Gose, Scott Effross, Tyler Matzek, Bryce Harper

These players face longer odds of making an impact since their surgeries were so late in the year. The major exception is Harper, since position players require less recovery time than pitchers. Harper is hoped to be able to return to the Phillies around the All-Star break as a designated hitter, with a chance of returning to the field later in the campaign.

Orioles Outright Lewin Díaz

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The Orioles announced that first baseman Lewin Díaz has cleared outright waivers and been outrighted to Triple-A Norfolk. He will stick in the organization but without taking up a roster spot.

This move will finally bring some semblance of stability to a wild offseason for Díaz, who recently turned 26. He began the offseason with the Marlins but was designated for assignment in November. He was claimed off waivers by the Pirates but they then designated him a week later. The Orioles claimed him in early December but only kept him on the roster for another three weeks, giving him his third DFA in the span of about a month. He was traded to the Braves for cash, though they gave him his fourth DFA of the winter about a week after that. The Orioles claimed him a second time in early January and then designated him once more last week, though Díaz has finally passed through unclaimed this time. Though Díaz would have probably liked to have held a roster spot, he now at least knows which team’s Spring Training camp he’ll be reporting to next month.

The O’s have seemingly been hellbent on stashing some left-handed non-roster depth this winter. They acquired Ryan O’Hearn from the Royals for cash considerations and later passed him through waivers and have now got Díaz through as well. Both those players will seemingly be battling each other for the right to get back onto the roster at some point when injuries or underperformance from other players make it necessary. For now, the club will be going into the season with right-handed hitting Ryan Mountcastle as the primary option at first base, with the designated hitter role likely going to Anthony Santander or one of the other outfielders.

Díaz has been somewhat inconsistent in his career thus far, with his strengths making him just appealing enough to get interest from multiple clubs around the league but his weaknesses preventing him from clinging to a roster spot for long. On the strong side, he’s an excellent defender at first base. In 112 big league games thus far, he’s registered 16 Defensive Runs Saved and nine Outs Above Average, while Ultimate Zone Rating has given him a 3.4. He’s also hit very well in the minors over the past couple of seasons. In 156 Triple-A games in 2021 and 2022, he’s hit 39 home runs and produced a batting line of .250/.325/.504 for a wRC+ of 115.

Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to come close to that in the majors thus far. Through 343 plate appearances in the big leagues, he’s hit 13 home runs but walked at a paltry 5.5% rate and slashed .181/.227/.340 for a wRC+ of 54. He’s also now out of options, meaning he provides less roster flexibility going forward.

Those factors have all combined to send Díaz on the strange ordeal he’s endured over the past few months. Several teams have been enticed by his glove and strong minor league offense, but his major league track record has continually squeezed him off rosters. After months of being passed around, the next steps are much more clear. He’ll report to the O’s and try to get back to the big leagues, either for Opening Day or at some point as the season goes along.

Notable International Signings: 1/15/2023

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Major League Baseball’s international signing period for 2023 has officially opened up today, with many of the big names signing almost immediately. Teams have long since agreed to verbal agreements with newly eligible teenage players, and today’s signings largely represent confirmation of what was anticipated. Still, it’s a day of no small moment, particularly for the young men embarking upon the start of their professional careers.

As previously mentioned, most of the agreements have been known for a while, with Baseball America’s Ben Badler and MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez having listed each player’s expected landing spot. You can find each team’s total bonus pool and other information on the process right here. Here are a few key deals:

  • Ethan Salas, C, Venezuela — Padres ($5.6MM): Ranked as the top prospect by both Baseball America and MLB Pipeline, the 16-year-old is considered by MLB Pipeline as “one of the best catching prospects in recent history” and is lauded for his strike zone control, power, and defense. Scouts have specifically highlighted his swing and soft hands. Born in June 2006, the backstop is the youngest player in MLB Pipeline’s Top 10 International Prospect Rankings. The young switch-hitter is no stranger to high-level baseball, with his grandfather, father, and uncle all playing professionally, and his older brother Jose Salas signed by the Marlins in 2019. Salas’ $5.6MM deal will comprise almost all of the Padres’ base signing pool of $5.825,000.
  • Felnin Celesten, SS, Dominican Republic — Mariners ($4.7MM): MLB Pipeline’s second-best prospect and Baseball America’s third-best, Celesten has been heralded as having “the highest ceiling of any international shortstop prospect in a decade” by MLB Pipeline. Scouts have noted the switch-hitter’s plus speed, arm, and raw power. However, Baseball America reports that Celesten has “an aggressive approach” and “might need to become a more selective hitter.“
  • Brando Mayea, OF, Cuba — Yankees ($4.4MM): Baseball America’s second-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s ninth-best, Mayea has drawn praise for his bat speed, power, and approach to the plate, with one scout going as far as to describe the 17-year-old as a “mini Gary Sheffield.” Scouts have praised the righty’s strong arm, with some expecting an eventual move to a corner outfield position.
  • Alfredo Duno, C, Venezuela — Reds (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fourth-best prospect and Baseball America’s seventh-best, Duno is a 17-year-old catcher that boasts three above-average tools — his fielding, arm, and power. Scouts have praised his “elite bat speed” and defensive ability. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both predict that Duno will remain behind the plate, but both also cite his swing-and-miss tendencies as a result of his aggressive approach.
  • Emmanuel Bonilla, OF, Dominican Republic — Blue Jays ($4.1MM): Baseball America’s fourth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s seventh-best, Bonilla profiles as a slugging outfielder that has a chance to remain in centerfield but will likely move to a corner position as the 16-year-old matures. Scouts have praised the righty’s bat speed and swing, with Baseball America reporting that some scouts believe Bonilla has “one of the best combinations of hitting ability and power in the class.”
  • Luis Morales, RHP, Cuba — Athletics (Unknown): MLB Pipeline’s fifth-best prospect and Baseball America’s ninth-best, Morales is a hard-throwing righty with a fastball that sits between 94-97 MPH with a slider, changeup, and curveball as secondary pitches. Born in Cuba, Morales was considered the best U-18 pitcher on the island, setting a record for strikeouts (161) in 82 2/3 innings between 2019 and 2020. He defected in 2021 while playing for Cuba’s U-23 team in Mexico. Morales, 20, is one of the oldest high-profile international prospects and thus may be potentially fast-tracked through the A’s system.
  • Sebastian Walcott, SS, Bahamas — Rangers (Unknown): Baseball America’s sixth-best prospect and MLB Pipeline’s eighth-best, Walcott is a 6’3, 170 lbs (6’4, 190 lbs, per Baseball America) 16-year-old that has impressed scouts with high raw power and bat speed. Despite being 6’3, Walcott has drawn praise for his contact skills, hand-eye coordination, and his fluid swing. Baseball America projects that as Walcott matures, he will outgrow the shortstop position and transition to third base. 

Several other well-regarded prospects also secured bonuses of $2M or more, with the specifics provided by Sanchez:

  • Brailer Guerrero, OF, D.R., Rays ($3.7MM)     [MLB Pipeline #12, BA #5]
  • Jesus Caba, SS, D.R., Phillies ($3MM)                [MLB Pipeline #11, BA #8]
  • Ariel Castro, OF, Cuba, Twins ($2.5MM)            [MLB Pipeline #11, BA#13]
  • Rayner Arias, OF, D.R., Giants ($2.8MM)          [MLB Pipeline #15, BA #8]
  • Camilo Diaz, OF, D.R., Astros ($2.25MM)          [MLB Pipeline #17, BA #19]
  • Luis Almeyda, SS, D.R., Orioles ($2.3MM)        [MLB Pipeline #20, BA #17]
  • Roberto Calaz, OF, D.R., Rockies ($2.5MM)     [MLB Pipeline #24, BA #14]
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