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Latest On Scott Kazmir’s Market

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Over the weekend, the Royals and A’s were among the clubs linked to free-agent lefty Scott Kazmir, and this morning, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale calls those two teams, along with the Orioles, Cardinals, Nationals and Astros the finalists for Kazmir (links to Twitter). That’s a fairly lengthy list of finalists, of course, and with so many clubs in the mix, it’s not entirely surprising to see Nightengale add that no deal is imminent.

On Friday, it was reported that Kazmir has received multiple three-year offers in the range of $12-13MM per season. With a number of comparable offers of that nature already in hand, Kazmir may very well be holding out for a fourth guaranteed season or, at least, a notable increase in average annual value. Of the listed clubs, only Oakland has added arms to its rotation picture this offseason (Rich Hill and, reportedly, Henderson Alvarez, though his deal has yet to be announced by the club). The Royals struck a deal to retain right-hander Chris Young but haven’t penciled in a replacement for the departed Johnny Cueto just yet. The Astros have been more focused on their bullpen and parted with a significant package to pry Ken Giles away from the Phillies. The Cardinals made a significant run at David Price but ultimately came up short, while Baltimore’s focus has been on Chris Davis. The Nationals have pursued both Jason Heyward and Mike Leake this winter — the former more aggressively than the latter — but didn’t sign either (Leake remains a free agent) and have lost Jordan Zimmermann to the Tigers. Any of the involved parties stands out as a reasonable fit for Kazmir, though from a financial standpoint, if one club is to separate itself from the others, the Athletics and Royals seem less likely to do so than their reported competitors for Kazmir, if history is any indication.

Kazmir, 32 in a month, recorded a 3.33 ERA with 7.7 K/9 against 2.6 BB/9 and a 43.4 percent ground-ball rate from 2014-15 — the duration of a two-year, $22MM contract initially signed with Oakland. A fourth guaranteed season for him could understandably be cause for hesitation among interested clubs, as he comes with quite a lengthy injury history and has wilted somewhat late in each of the past two seasons. However, he’s also a more affordable alternative to five-year hopefuls Wei-Yin Chen and Mike Leake. And, unlike some of his competition (Chen, Yovani Gallardo, Ian Kennedy), Kazmir won’t require a signing club to forfeit a draft pick.

Orioles Notes: Cespedes, Davis, Gausman

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Here’s the latest from Camden Yards…

  • The Orioles have engaged Yoenis Cespedes and other “high-end” free agent outfielders in talks, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets.  This interest stems both from the apparent stalemate between Chris Davis and the O’s, and also simply from the fact that so many top outfielders are still available.  It makes sense that Baltimore would check in on other big bats in lieu of an agreement with Davis, though landing the likes of Cespedes could be difficult if the team was indeed only willing to offer a $150MM contract to Davis himself.  MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected Cespedes and Justin Upton to land deals in the $140MM-$147MM range this winter, though those two represent the top of the market — Alex Gordon, for instance, was projected for a $105MM price tag, while other options like Dexter Fowler or Denard Span are another tier or two down.
  • Since the Orioles have at least shown the willingness to spend top dollar, Olney reports (in his latest subscription-only column) that the team has received quite a few calls from agents.
  • The O’s have been in contact with Scott Boras, Davis’ agent, which the Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connolly interprets as a positive sign even if he doesn’t think there’s necessarily a lot of progress being made.  Connolly also warns fans to not get over-confident about the idea of Davis returning — while the O’s seem to be the only major suitors for the first baseman’s services to date, Boras has a history of waiting to find an unexpected bidder that will match his client’s asking price.
  • Kevin Gausman is “off limits” in trade talks, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes, though teams often ask about the young righty.  Jason Garcia, another right-hander, also drew a lot of interest at the Winter Meetings, as did first baseman Christian Walker and prospects Jomar Reyes, Chance Sisco and Trey Mancini.

Cafardo On Victorino, Cahill, Cubs

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with managing general partner of Sapient Global Markets Dave Donovan, who is trying to apply banking principles to baseball in order to help limit risk on the part of teams.

“Because there’s such an emphasis by teams on acquiring the right players, especially now where you have financial constraints with luxury taxes, etc., we’re looking at it the same way as we do with banks,” Donovan said. “Banks want to make as much money as they possibly can. Their constraint is regulation. They have stress tests they have to do for the government after banks almost took down the world because they weren’t financially compliant. We’ve been working with these banks to measure their risks and you can apply the same concepts in sports…Your roster is no different than a portfolio of securities. Those are your assets. That’s what you’ve put your investment in, so it only makes sense that you should monitor your assets”

When considering risk management, Cafardo wonders aloud if the Red Sox’s decision to sign David Price to a seven-year, $217MM was a prudent one.  Cafardo speculates that the hedge fund operator in owner John Henry probably wasn’t thrilled about the move.  However, in the short-term, he knew that Boston needed an ace pitcher.

Here’s more from today’s column:

  • Shane Victorino’s agent, John Boggs, said a couple of teams have shown interest in his client, but no deal is imminent at this time.  Boggs added that the veteran is looking to sign a one-year deal in order to re-establish his value.  The Flyin’ Hawaiian hit just .230/.308/.292 in 2015 in 204 combined plate appearances for the Red Sox and Angels.  Still, he’s only two years removed from his 2013 campaign in which he slashed .294/.351/.451 with 15 homers for Boston.  Victorino, who plans on getting back to switch-hitting, celebrated his 35th birthday in late November.
  • Right-hander Trevor Cahill had an opportunity to sign with the Pirates or Orioles as a starting pitcher, Cafardo writes.  However, he opted to stay with the Cubs where he will be used in a relief role.  Cahill’s clear preference was to start again, but he also didn’t want to leave Chicago.  Cahill gave the Cubs 17 brilliant innings of relief down the stretch, yielding just four runs and recording an outstanding 22-to-5 K/BB ratio to go along with a ground-ball rate of 61.8 percent. He also pitched 5 1/3 innings in the postseason, allowing two runs on seven hits and no walks with eight strikeouts (3.38 ERA).
  • Ron Gardenhire lost out on the Padres’ job but “the feeling” is that he could always go back to the Twins organization and work in some capacity.  However, Gardenhire’s preference would be to manage for a major league team again.  Gardenhire has extensive postseason experience from his time with the Twins, having led the club to six AL Central Division titles in 13 seasons and also bringing the team to a Game 163 tiebreaker that was lost to the White Sox in 2008. However he also has a disappointing 6-21 record in the playoffs, having only captured one series victory (against the A’s in 2002).

Bronson Arroyo Drawing Interest From Multiple Teams

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Free agent hurler Bronson Arroyo is drawing interest from multiple teams this winter, according to ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark (on Twitter).  So far, the Nationals, Pirates, Orioles, Padres, Braves, Reds, and Phillies have all called on Arroyo.

Arroyo, 39 in February, is now 17 months removed from Tommy John surgery.  For his part, Arroyo tells Stark that he is “perfectly fine.”  It’s been a while since Arroyo took the hill, as he missed about half of 2014 and all of 2015 after going under the knife. He bounced between organizations as part of the salary-swapping elements of a pair of trades, but he has said in the past that he expects to be ready to go in the spring.

The Reds’ interest in Arroyo was reported back in November, but GM Dick Williams indicated that they would only have interest if if he can first demonstrate that he’s healthy.  Arroyo enjoyed a solid eight-year run with the Reds before departing for the D’Backs via free agency after the 2013 campaign.  He contributed nearly 1700 innings in that stretch, carrying a 4.05 ERA with 5.9 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9.

Considering all he’s been through in the last year-and-a-half and the money he’s earned over his career, no one would fault Arroyo for considering retirement.  However, now that he’s apparently healthy and has interest from at least seven teams, it sounds like the right-hander has no intentions of hanging up his spikes.  For his career, Arroyo has pitched to a 4.19 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 across 15 big league seasons.  He’s not hurting for cash either, as he has raked in more than $90MM in the sport.

Heyman’s Latest: Royals, Kazmir, Dee Gordon, Clippard, Holliday, Padres, Astros

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There are a host of interesting notes in the latest column from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Here are some of the highlights:

  • While the Royals are still interested in free agent starters Yovani Gallardo and Scott Kazmir, as has previously been reported, the club may be most intrigued by Wei-Yin Chen, per Heyman. Kansas City would have to go well beyond its usual spending levels to add the southpaw, but Heyman writes that the club has newfound budget “flexibility” in the midst of its renaissance. Chen, though, is represented by Scott Boras, with whom the Royals have a strong relationship. (Kendrys Morales, Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas, Alex Rios and Franklin Morales are among the current or recent Royals to be Boras clients.)
  • Kazmir already has multiple three-year offers with guarantees in the range of $12MM to $13MM annually, per the report, with teams like the Athletics, Orioles, and Dodgers said to be involved. It seems like the first legitimate four-year offer could land Kazmir, Heyman adds. Of course, it’s unclear if the A’s will still be in the hunt if and when their reported one-year deal with righty Henderson Alvarez is finalized.
  • Meanwhile, the Royals are still pursuing Alex Gordon, but Heyman reports that the team’s initial four-year offer was not met with a very promising response from Gordon’s camp. It’s been surprisingly quiet on the Gordon front for much of the offseason, although with Jason Heyward off the board, it’s easy to imagine the market for him and fellow corner outfielders Yoenis Cespedes and Justin Upton picking up quickly.
  • The Royals are holding extension discussions with backstop Salvador Perez, says Heyman, and there’s interest from team and player in reaching “something equitable.” But K.C. has all the leverage, of course, given its already lengthy and cheap control rights over the sturdy young catcher. Heyman adds that Perez’s representatives have raised the extensions of players like Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria, and Ryan Braun in talks, with the Royals not favorably disposed to those concepts. (An observation: those deals certainly don’t seem all that relevant from where I sit. Perez is an excellent player, but hasn’t reached the heights of those stars, and his current contract is far cheaper than the ones Longoria and Braun turned into new deals. Also, as a heavily-worked, large-framed catcher, there are questions about how wise it would be to make a long-term investment in Perez.)
  • The Marlins have continued their extension talks with Dee Gordon, and Heyman says that Miami has put a five-year deal on the table. But Gordon and his reps are looking for seven seasons in an extension. The talks are moving slowly, but still moving, per Heyman.
  • While the Mets do have legitimate interest in Tyler Clippard, they only want him with a one-year guarantee, per Heyman. Clippard is looking for a two-year deal he adds. It certainly seems that the veteran’s market is lagging the rest of the top-end set-up men who hit free agency this year. That could be due to a combination of his heavy recent workload and sub-par peripherals last year, but Clippard should still find a significant contract given his lengthy track record and the high dollars we’ve seen given to inferior arms.
  • Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday has been working out at first base, with the veteran looking to extend his career by adding defensive versatility. While that’s been done at Holliday’s initiative, Heyman wonders whether the hypothetical possibility of a move could keep St. Louis involved in the hunt for Gordon.
  • The Padres seem unlikely to put together a big offer for Ian Desmond. That would certainly be bad news for the free agent, whose market has yet to develop, as San Diego seems like one of the best fits. The Pads are not getting a lot of interest in James Shields at present and have put a high price on Tyson Ross, per the report. Meanwhile, the club is considering a move for veteran reliever Fernando Rodney.
  • The Astros aren’t done with their bullpen and remain in the market for relievers as well as a corner bat, Heyman writes. Houston non-tendered Chris Carter, and A.J. Reed probably won’t be ready to begin the season, so there does indeed appear to be room for someone capable of taking some at-bats at first base (although Jon Singleton could be given another look there as well).
  • We’ve heard chatter that the Orioles and Rockies have had some talks regarding outfielder Carlos Gonzalez, and Heyman says that Colorado asked for young righty Kevin Gausman in a deal. That was, unsurprisingly, a non-starter for Baltimore. The O’s, meanwhile, tried to get Andre Ethier from the Dodgers last offseason, and Heyman wonders whether another such effort could take place this year as the club continues to hunt for another left-handed-hitting outfielder (per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, on Twitter).
  • The Indians had talks with free agent Austin Jackson before signing Rajai Davis, per Heyman. He adds that there are legitimate concerns that Michael Brantley will be out into June “or perhaps even later” after some undisclosed new shoulder “issue” arose this winter.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Details On Jonathan Papelbon’s Current No-Trade List

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DECEMBER 18: That list was apparently the one in effect for 2015, as Crasnick now provides a list that, he says, will be in effect for the year to come. It is the same as the prior iteration except for four changes.

On this new list, the Braves, Reds, Royals, and Mariners have moved into the group of teams to which Papelbon can reject a trade. Meanwhile, the Giants, Phillies, Tigers, and Yankees are now among the clubs to which Papelbon may freely be dealt, without his authorization.

DECEMBER 15: Nationals reliever Jonathan Papelbon has the right to name 17 clubs to which he cannot be traded without his consent, and ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on this year’s list.

Papelbon can block deals to the following clubs: the Athletics, Blue Jays, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Giants, Indians, Marlins, Orioles, Phillies, Pirates, Rangers, Rockies, Tigers, Twins, White Sox and Yankees. The league’s remaining teams can acquire the controversial veteran without his approval.

No-trade lists tend to reflect both personal preferences and strategic considerations. It’s hard to know the precise motivations here, but it’s worth remembering that Papelbon has previously made good use of his no-trade rights in exerting leverage. In approving the trade that sent him to D.C. last year, Papelbon received assurances he’d be used as the closer and picked up a guarantee of his 2016 option (though that would have vested anyway and he took a discount to facilitate the move).

While an exceedingly public spat with star Bryce Harper has led to wide speculation that Papelbon will be dealt, Nats GM Mike Rizzo has maintained that the team won’t simply cut him loose for whatever it can get. Papelbon is neither cheap ($11MM) nor young (35), but he’s continued to produce quality results and represents a fair value from a pure baseball perspective.

Blue Jays Claim Junior Lake

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The Blue Jays have claimed outfielder Junior Lake off waivers from the Orioles, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com reports on Twitter. Baltimore had recently designated Lake for assignment.

Lake did not play much in the majors last year, spending most of the season at Triple-A. In 355 plate appearances there, he put up a strong .298/.397/.431 slash. But Leake hasn’t quite produced at that level in the majors. Over the last three years, he’s managed a .237/.278/.377 slash in 664 trips to the plate.

It’s not clear yet what Toronto’s intentions are with Lake, but he offers some flexibility for a team that could consider dealing from its outfield depth. As things stand, Ben Revere, Kevin Pillar, Michael Saunders, and Dalton Pompey look like the top candidates to join Jose Bautista in the outfield, and it’s possible to imagine the club attempting to cash in one of those players to address another need (or free up resources to do so). Adding Lake certainly doesn’t force a move, but could help facilitate one.

Royals Join Astros, O’s In Pursuit Of Yovani Gallardo

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DECEMBER 18: It does not sound as if there has been much movement on Gallardo’s market over the last few days. The Astros and Orioles are still the “most aggressive” pursuers, per Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter links), but Baltimore, at least, doesn’t even have an offer out to the righty at present.

DECEMBER 14: The Royals have joined the Astros and Orioles with interest in free agent righty Yovani Gallardo, SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo reports on Twitter. The report suggests that Gallardo could choose from among that trio of clubs before long.

Entering his age-30 campaign, Gallardo no longer looks like a top-of-the-rotation hurler but has been solid and durable. His arm has been injury-free in the majors and he has not dropped below 184 innings in any of the last seven seasons. Gallardo has also averaged a sub-3.50 ERA over the past two seasons, with strong groundball tendencies making up somewhat for declining strikeouts, though ERA estimators have not supported those results.

The veteran right-hander seems to fit the mold of starter that Kansas City has pursued in recent offseasons. Though he’ll probably be more expensive (and is arguably a better pitcher) than recent signees like Edinson Volquez, Jason Vargas, and Jeremy Guthrie, all of those players had also delivered fairly consistent innings heading into their open-market year.

Kansas City has already re-signed Chris Young and is said to be bringing in Dillon Gee as another option, so there isn’t quite as much urgency to add to the staff as there was when the winter started. But some of the current rotation options, such as Kris Medlen and Danny Duffy, spent time in the pen last year and probably haven’t locked down jobs for 2016. And building out depth never hurts, as was made evident last year when Young filled in admirably as Yordano Ventura struggled and Vargas went down to Tommy John surgery.

Latest On Chris Davis, Orioles

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The Orioles have continued to talk with agent Scott Boras about slugger Chris Davis, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. Boras has been reaching out to other clubs on Davis as well, ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets.

As Kubatko explains, it still remains unclear — publicly and to the O’s — what other clubs are serious about pursuing Davis. Baltimore appears to be comfortable waiting, he suggests, and doesn’t seem motivated to up its bid. The previously reported offer reached about $150MM in total value, after accounting for deferred money. Kubatko adds.

If Davis doesn’t end up taking that offer, the Orioles don’t have plans to re-allocate the funds to another major free agent, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. Owner Peter Angelos has already gone “out of his comfort zone” in pushing the offer to Davis as high as it is, Connolly writes, because of Davis’s unique standing in the organization and his unique ability to generate long balls.

All said, then, it doesn’t appear as if much has changed since the Winter Meetings wrapped up. But that’s notable in its own right, as the lack of alternative suitors and targets, respectively, arguably leaves Davis and the O’s as the most comfortable fit. Of course, whether or not the sides’ contractual differences can be bridged remains to be seen.

Wei-Yin Chen Seeking Five-Year, $100MM Deal

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Free agent pitcher Wei-Yin Chen is searching for a five-year, $100MM contract, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (on Twitter).  At that price, Kubatko adds, it’s clear that the Orioles have moved on to other offseason targets.  At the outset of the offseason, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes projected that Chen would land a five-year deal worth $80MM.  Apparently, the Scott Boras client is aiming higher.

Chen, 30, is coming off a nice four-year run with the Orioles which was highlighted by a particularly strong two-year platform in 2014-15.  Over the past two seasons, he’s logged a 3.44 ERA with 6.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 to go along with a 40.8 percent ground-ball rate in 377 innings of work.  Chen turned down a qualifying offer from the Orioles earlier this offseason, so signing him would require a team to forfeit its first eligible draft pick.  That’s a notable disadvantage for Chen compared to quality pitchers remaining on the free agent market such as Mike Leake, Scott Kazmir, and Kenta Maeda.  Late last month, Tim took an in-depth look at Chen and speculated on the type of deal he could land.

The Cardinals appeared to be a solid fit for a pitcher like Chen but GM John Mozeliak recently said that the team is unlikely to make a “dynamic” signing at this stage of the offseason.  The Giants were known to have some level of interest in Chen, but they are almost definitely out on high-priced pitching after adding Jeff Samardzija and Johnny Cueto this winter.

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