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Orioles Will Receive “Substantial” Compensation If Duquette Deal Completed

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Several reports have been floating around about Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette and the oft-discussed possibility of him moving to the Blue Jays to become the division rival’s president. The outcome still seems tough to predict, but action is increasing. Here’s the latest:

  • The Orioles are considering several compensation packages that would allow Duquette to leave for Toronto, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. While no deal appears close and talks could still fall apart, Connolly notes that this could be the closest the two sides have come to an agreement given that the O’s are now actually looking at offers. Duquette has reportedly made his interest in the Jays’ job known to Orioles ownership, which could explain why the O’s are more open to letting him go, though that doesn’t mean they’ll relax their compensation demands.  A top prospect like Jeff Hoffman would only be one part of Baltimore’s asking price, Connolly writes.
  • If the O’s continue with these high demands, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi opines that “the Blue Jays should, and in all likelihood would, look elsewhere in their search for a new president and CEO,” noting that Duquette is far from the only qualified executive who would be interested in the Toronto job.
  • Despite the rising value of top front office minds around baseball, “many in the industry will privately question the Blue Jays if they part with a top prospect for an executive,” Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes.  An expendable Major League roster piece like Dioner Navarro or Kevin Pillar might be more palatable compensation for the Jays, though Nicholson-Smith notes that the O’s will want more.

Earlier Updates

  • Kubatko hears that the Orioles are pushing for more substantial compensation as a trade-off for not filing tampering charges against the Blue Jays (Twitter link).
  • Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun gets the sense that while a resolution to the situation isn’t close, it’s certainly gotten closer over the past few days (Twitter link).
  • ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter) that if a deal gets done, the compensation for Baltimore will be “substantial.” Olney hears that one name that has been discussed is right-hander Jeff Hoffman, whom the Blue Jays selected ninth overall in the 2014 draft. Hoffman was at one point in the mix to go first overall or certainly in the top five, but he slipped a bit due to the fact that he had Tommy John surgery shortly before the draft.
  • A deal is “getting close and going to happen,” a source tells ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden (Twitter link), who cautions that the information is not confirmed. Of course, that would appear to conflict with another seemingly unconfirmed report yesterday from Sportsnet.ca radio host Bob McCown (via Ben Nicholson-Smith), which stated that Paul Beeston would stay on for another year as the Jays’ president and CEO.
  • Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reported yesterday that MLB was running out of patience with the dalliance and was pressuring Baltimore to get something done or close down the possibility. Perhaps looking to increase its own leverage, the Orioles have themselves discussed the possibility of filing tampering charges against Toronto, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets.

Minor Moves: Marlins, Johnson, Willis

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These are the day’s notable minor moves:

  • In announcing the team’s non-roster spring invites, the Marlins revealed a few new minor league signings. Among them are several right-handed relievers who could challenge for a pen spot. Vin Mazzaro, 28, had great results in 2013 for the Pirates but spent most of last year in Triple-A. 29-year-old Ryan Reid had a nice 11-inning run in 2013 but has otherwise spent much of his time in the upper minors. And Pat Misch, 33, will look to return to regular big league action. He last threw in the majors in 2011 and did not play in organized ball last year.
  • The Orioles have agreed to terms with righty Steve Johnson on a minor league deal that includes a spring invite, according to Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Johnson, 27, saw 54 innings with the O’s over 2012-13, with a strong first year followed by a rough sophomore effort. Last year saw Johnson scuffle at Triple-A, though a shoulder injury that required offseason surgery may well have been a primary culprit for those difficulties.
  • The Brewers have struck a minor league deal with one-time star lefty Dontrelle Willis, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports on Twitter. Willis will receive an invite to big league camp, where he’ll attempt to earn a spot on an active roster for the first time since 2011. Once one of the game’s most exciting young arms, Willis faded quickly and has bounced around the league since a failed stint with the Tigers. Most recently, he has spent time in the Orioles, Angels, and Rangers systems, but has thrown most of his innings in independent ball.

Outfield Notes: Ichiro, Schierholtz, Chavez, Bautista

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The Marlins have made a one-year, $2MM offer to Ichiro Suzuki, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald reports. Miami is “optimistic, but not certain” that it will reach agreement with the veteran. If not, it could look to Nate Schierholtz or the trade market. Ichiro could be the next domino to fall now that Colby Rasmus has signed with the Astros.

  • The Orioles offered Rasmus a one-year, $7MM deal that might have included an option, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. After missing on Rasmus, Baltimore is looking down its list for other left-handed outfield options. Schierholtz is a possibility, as is Ichiro.
  • Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com also discusses the club’s efforts to add another outfielder, explaining that the uncertainty surrounding executive VP Dan Duquette has not been the reason that the team has missed on its outfield targets thus far. Instead, Baltimore is focused on only striking the right deal, and could take its current roster into camp with at least some hope that youngster Dariel Alvarez would be ready to contribute by the summer. As Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs wrote yesterday in his breakdown of the O’s minor league system, the club is much higher on Alvarez than outside evaluators.
  • In spite of making several outfield additions, the Mariners are interested in a reunion with Endy Chavez, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links). The 36-year-old, who spent each of the last two seasons in Seattle, might need to fight for a roster spot out of camp, says Crasnick.
  • Blue Jays star right fielder Jose Bautista says that his next contract is not the first thing on his mind right now, as Mackenzie Liddell of Sportsnet.ca writes (comments via an appearance on Brady and Walker of Sportsnet 590). Bautista did acknowledge that he is intrigued by the possibility of becoming a free agent after the 2016 season, but says his focus is on playing winning baseball this year.

Blue Jays Trying To Hire Dan Duquette

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MONDAY: The Blue Jays continue to work with MLB in an attempt to hire Duquette, Morosi tweets.

WEDNESDAY 7:38pm: Orioles owner Peter Angelos adamantly denied to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun that the Orioles are in negotiations with the Blue Jays regarding Duquette. Said Angelos:

“We are not negotiating with them in any way. They have expressed interest in Dan Duquette, which we understand because Dan is an exceptional GM. But we are not in any negotiations with Mr. Rogers. We have a contract [with Duquette], and that’s the end of it.”

Angelos did concede that if the Blue Jays made an offer, he would take a look at the proposition, but he is not actively negotiating and has no intent on allowing Duquette to leave for a division rival. Connolly writes that the Orioles would have to be blown away to part with Duquette, and historically speaking, compensation for parting with executives has been minimal.

4:52pm: We checked in this morning on the possibility of the Blue Jays acquiring the rights to Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette in order to install him as the club’s new president. The reports cited indicated that there were at least discussions regarding possible compensation, and that the Orioles were willing to consider the move.

More has emerged this afternoon. Toronto has informed MLB that Duquette is the club’s top choice to take the role of president, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports (links to Twitter). Though he adds that he cannot confirm reports that a deal is nearing, Morosi says that there is “growing optimism” that something will get done.

Current president Paul Beeston is still set to represent the Jays at the upcoming owner’s meetings, Morosi adds. Of course, it would be a stretch to expect Duquette to be up and running in such short order, and a transition period will obviously be necessary regardless of when (and with whom) a contract is signed.

Duquette is under contract with Baltimore through 2018, meaning that compensation will need to be worked out between the clubs for Toronto to add him to its front office. Cash and/or player returns for executives or field staff is nothing new, of course, though it is understandably tricky to work out a price tag.

Cafardo On Scherzer, Shields, Kimbrel, Chapman

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Teams are aware that Max Scherzer and James Shields are excellent pitchers, but many teams don’t have enough money remaining in their budgets to sign them, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. The Red Sox like both pitchers and don’t have an obvious ace, but they’ve already spent heavily this offseason and have plenty of good starters, one of whom could emerge to lead them. A number of teams, meanwhile, are waiting for Shields’ price to come down. Where Scherzer and Shields land could depend on owners who are willing to step up and sign them, regardless of their teams’ budgets. (The Nationals and another team are reportedly currently involved in the bidding for Scherzer.) In other nuggets from Cafardo’s Sunday Notes column:

  • The Red Sox are committed to Christian Vazquez being their starting catcher; but, with the development of Blake Swihart, it may not be for long. The Phillies covet Swihart in a potential Cole Hamels trade, but one NL executive wonders whether they would take Vazquez instead.
  • Baseball executives tell Cafardo the Braves may be willing to deal closer Craig Kimbrel at the trade deadline, if the club is struggling. The same goes for the Reds and Aroldis Chapman. Cafardo lists the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Tigers as the teams who would most benefit from adding either reliever.
  • The Orioles will not be able to obtain an MLB player as compensation if Dan Duquette joins the Blue Jays, but owner Peter Angelos will seek one or two very good prospects.
  • The Giants scored another quality signing when they came to terms with outfielder Nori Aoki. The Giants had inquired with the Red Sox about their surplus of outfielders, including Shane Victorino, Allen Craig, and Daniel Nava.

Outfield Notes: Aoki, Blackmon, Heyward

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New Giants outfielder Nori Aoki could have scored multiple years and a larger guarantee elsewhere, tweets Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but he preferred the opportunity to receive significant playing time for a contender and also liked the idea of living in San Francisco.

  • The Orioles are “doing their homework” on Rockies outfielder Charlie Blackmon and could become involved in trade talks, but seemingly have not yet engaged in any discussions, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Baltimore does not consider it a fit for Dexter Fowler of the Astros, says Kubatko, and is still considering a run at free agent Colby Rasmus. The club is looking for left-handed-hitting outfielders, though Alejandro De Aza and David Lough remain under contract.
  • Jason Heyward and the Cardinals have each expressed general interest in exploring an expansion of their current one-year relationship, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. A feeling-out process seems in order first, and neither side appears to be in a rush to sit down at the negotiating table.
  • Heyward also offered some interesting words on his past talks with the Braves and why they never proved fruitful, in his view. “For me, I’m from Georgia [and] I grew up playing baseball in that state,” said Heyward. “I grew up watching the great teams of the 1990s and got to play for a Hall of Fame manager [Bobby Cox] who helped build that organization. For me, I was never opposed to [staying]. There wasn’t a lot of time put in on their part, I feel like, getting to know me as a person and getting to know my mindset on it.”

Minor Moves: Bard, Berry, Hand, Pastornicky

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Here’s a roundup of minor moves from late this week.

  • The Cubs have signed free agent pitcher Daniel Bard to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, tweets Mike Perchick of WAPT Sports. The former Red Sox relief ace last appeared in the majors during the 2013 season when he tossed just one inning. After three solid campaigns to begin his career, the wheels fell off in 2012 with a 6.22 ERA, 5.76 K/9, and 6.52 BB/9 in 59 and one-third innings.
  • The Red Sox have signed free agent outfielder Quintin Berry to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training, tweets Mike Perchick of WAPT Sports. The 30-year-old outfielder has seen infrequent action since making his major league debut with the Tigers in 2012. That year, he hit .258/.330/.354 in 330 plate appearances with 21 steals. He’s since served short stints with the Red Sox and Orioles as a defensive replacement and pinch runner.
  • Free agent righty Donovan Hand tweets that he has agreed to a deal with the Reds. The deal would presumably be of the minor league variety. Hand, 28, spent his eighth season in the Brewers organization in 2014 as a swingman for Triple-A Nashville, posting a 5.20 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9. Hand had the same role in the big leagues in 2013, posting a 3.69 ERA and 2.8 BB/9 in 68 1/3 innings but with just 4.9 K/9.
  • The Braves have outrighted infielder Tyler Pastornicky, MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets. The Braves designated Pastornicky for assignment last week after he hit .290/.330/.347 in 189 plate appearances last year for Triple-A Gwinnett. The 25-year-old has appeared in parts of three seasons in the Majors, most notably hitting .243/.287/.325 in 188 plate appearances in 2012.
  • The Athletics have outrighted infielder Andy Parrino, MLB.com’s Jane Lee tweets. The A’s designated Parrino for assignment in the wake of the Ben Zobrist deal last weekend. The 29-year-old hit .274/.352/.384 at the Triple-A level in 2014.
  • The Mariners have outrighted lefty Anthony Fernandez, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets. Fernandez, 24, has never pitched in the big leagues and missed most of last season due to injury, making just five starts for Triple-A Tacoma. The Mariners designated him for assignment Thursday.
  • The Orioles have outrighted catcher Ryan Lavarnway, according to MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Lavarnway, 27, was claimed three times in the past six weeks (by the Dodgers, Cubs and Orioles) before finally making it through waivers. He hit .283/.389/.370 in 257 plate appearances for Triple-A Pawtucket in the Red Sox system in 2014.
  • The Blue Jays have outrighted righty Cory Burns, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca tweets. The Jays designated Burns for assignment earlier this week when they claimed Matt West. Burns, 27, pitched well in relief at Double-A and Triple-A in the Rays organization early in the season, but struggled after being claimed by the Rangers in June. The Blue Jays then claimed him in late September.
  • The Rays have signed lefty Everett Teaford, the Ballengee Group announces (via Twitter). The contract will presumably be a minor-league deal. Teaford appeared in parts of three seasons with the Royals from 2011 through 2013, but pitched for the LG Twins in the offense-heavy KBO in 2014, posting a 5.24 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9 in 99 2/3 innings.

Rockies Offering Charlie Blackmon For Pitching

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The Rockies are discussing outfielder Charlie Blackmon with more than one team in trade talks and are hoping to get pitching in return, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal write. The Rockies haven’t made a significant pitching signing this offseason, and Morosi and Rosenthal write that the main reason is that they’re having trouble attracting pitching to Coors Field. The Rockies think they can deal Blackmon for a pitcher and then sign an outfielder, given that Denver would be an attractive destination for an outfielder for the same reason it’s a poor one for a pitcher. (The outfield market is rather thin at this late point in the offseason, although Colby Rasmus could be one possibility.)

Blackmon, 28, is coming off a solid 2014 season in which he hit .288/.335/.440 in 648 plate appearances. He also has another year before he becomes eligible for arbitration, so he would undoubtedly be an attractive trade target. Morosi and Rosenthal note that the Rockies have asked the Mets about Dillon Gee, for example, but Blackmon would surely have more trade value than Gee does (and the Mets probably aren’t on the hunt for a starting outfielder anyway). The Rangers, Braves, Orioles and Cubs could all make sense as potential trading partners.

East Notes: Ichiro, Tillman, Blue Jays

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The Marlins’ level of interest in free agent outfielder Ichiro Suzuki has begun to increase, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick tweets. He adds that while the Marlins are set for outfield starters, they lack depth behind Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich, and they can use Ichiro’s combination of experience and speed. The Blue Jays and Orioles have also been connected to the 41-year-old outfielder. Here are more notes from the East divisions.

  • The Orioles have discussed extensions with a small handful of players, including starter Chris Tillman, and could revisit those talks in the future, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. The Orioles signed Tillman to a one-year, $4.315MM deal earlier this week to avoid arbitration. MLBTR looked at the possibility of a long-term deal for Tillman in a recent extension candidate piece.
  • Starter R.A. Dickey is cautiously optimistic about the the Blue Jays’ upcoming season, Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star writes. “I’m as excited as I was in 2013,” says Dickey, referring to the splashy offseason in which the Jays acquired him. “Now, we all know what happened in ’13.” Dickey says he’s excited about the Jays’ additions of Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson, although he’d still like to see them acquire bullpen help.

Arbitration Roundup: 54 Players Exchange Figures

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With today’s flurry of activities in the books, 144 players have agreed to deals to avoid arbitration for a total spend of $433MM. But that leaves 54 players who have exchanged figures and have ground left to cover before their 2015 salaries are settled. That number is up from last year’s tally of 39, and may point to the possibility that we will see more hearings than the three in 2014 (which was itself up from zero the year before).

MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is a great resource for seeing where things stand. It is fully sortable and even allows you to link to the results of a search. (The MLBTR/Matt Swartz arbitration projections are also quite handy, of course.) Using the tracker, I compiled some broad notes on where things stand in the arbitration process this year.

Remember, deals avoiding arbitration can still be reached even after the exchange of numbers. Hearings will be scheduled between February 1st and 21st, so there is plenty of time for the sides to come together before making their cases.

That being said, some teams are known for their “file and trial” approach to arb-eligible players, meaning that they refuse to negotiate after the exchange deadline and go to a hearing if agreement has not been reached. Among those clubs (the Brewers, Rays, Marlins, Blue Jays, Braves, Reds, and White Sox, per the most recent reporting), there are several open cases remaining: Mat Latos and Michael Dunn (Marlins), Josh Donaldson and Danny Valencia (Blue Jays), Mike Minor (Braves), and Aroldis Chapman, Devin Mesoraco and Todd Frazier (Reds).

Meanwhile, some other clubs have historically employed the “file and trial” approach on a modified or case-by-case basis: the Pirates, Nationals, and Indians. Among those clubs, the Pirates (Neil Walker, Vance Worley) and Nationals (Jerry Blevins) have open cases, though all of them feature relatively tight spreads.

And there are some other interesting cases to keep an eye on as well. Consider:

  • The Orioles and Royals not only faced off in last year’s American League Championship Series, but find themselves staring at by far the most unresolved cases (six and eight, respectively). They are also the only teams with eight-figure gaps between their submissions and those of their players ($10.85MM and $10MM, respectively).
  • Among the Orioles players, two stand out for the significant relative gulf separating team and player. Zach Britton, who excelled after taking over as the closer last year, filed at $4.2MM while the team countered at $2.2MM, leaving a $2MM gap that is worth nearly 91% of the club’s offer. Even more remarkably, the O’s will need to bridge a $3.4MM gap ($5.4MM versus $2MM) with surprise star Steve Pearce. That spread is 1.7 times the value of the team’s offer and easily beats the largest difference last year (Logan Morrison and the Mariners, 127.3%).
  • Of course, it is worth remembering that first-year arb salaries have added impact because they set a baseline for future earnings. (Each successive year’s salary is essentially calculated as an earned raise from that starting point.) For the Reds, the outcome of their cases with Frazier ($5.7MM vs. $3.9MM) and Mesoraco ($3.6MM vs. $2.45MM) could have huge ramifications for whether the team will be able to afford to keep (and possibly extend) that pair of strong performers.
  • Likewise, the Angels face an important showdown with Garrett Richards, a Super Two whose starting point will factor into three more seasons of payouts. As a high-upside starter, he has sky high earning potential, so any savings will be most welcome to the team. The current spread is $3.8MM versus $2.4MM, a $1.4MM difference that equates to 58.3% of the team’s filing price.
  • Interestingly, the biggest gap in absolute terms belong to Pearce and the Orioles at $3.4MM. After that come Bud Norris and the Orioles ($2.75MM), David Freese and the Angels ($2.35MM), Greg Holland and the Royals ($2.35MM), Dexter Fowler and the Astros ($2.3MM), Eric Hosmer and the Royals ($2.1MM), and Aroldis Chapman and the Reds ($2.05MM).

Of course, plenty of deals already got done today. Here are some of the more notable among them:

  • David Price agreed to a $19.75MM salary with the Tigers that stands as the single highest arbitration payday ever, by a fair margin.
  • Interestingly, the Rays agreed to rather similar, sub-projection deals with all seven of their arb-eligible players. Discounts on Swartz’s expectations ranged from 3.23% to 13.21%. In total, the club shaved $1.525MM off of its tab.
  • The opposite was true of the Tigers, who spent a total of $1.4MM over the projections on just three players. Of course, since one of those players was Price, the commitment landed just 5.2% over the projected total.
  • Detroit’s overages pale in comparison to those of the Cubs, who handed out several of the deals that beat the projections by the widest relative margin and ended up over $2.5MM (14.5%) over their projected spend.
  • The MLBTR/Swartz model badly whiffed (over 50% off) on just three players, all of whom earned well over the projections: Chris Coghlan of the Cubs (78.9%), Carlos Carrasco of the Indians (66.9%) Tony Sipp of the Astros (60%).
  • On the low side, the worst miss (or the biggest discount, depending on one’s perspective) was Mark Melancon of the Pirates, who fell $2.2MM and 28.9% shy of his projected earnings. Danny Espinosa (Nationals) and Chris Tillman (Orioles) were the only two other players to fall 20% or more below their projections. Of course, in the cases of both Melancon and Tillman, Swartz accurately predicted that they would fall short of the model.
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