East Notes: Orioles, Pedroia, Red Sox, Olivera
The Orioles have begun reaching agreements with much of their coaching staff after offering deals to all of them. Bench coach John Russell inked a two-year deal last month, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports (all links to Twitter). Hitting coach Scott Coolbaugh, third base coach Bobby Dickerson, and bullpen coach Dom Chiti are all now under contract for next year, Kubatko adds.
Here’s the latest out of the game’s eastern divisions:
- Red Sox second baseman Dustin Pedroia says that his hamstring injury was somewhat more serious than had been known during the season, as WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports. The 32-year-old explains that he tried to come back too quickly after suffering a grade 2.5 tear of the biceps femoris — the lower part of the hamstring where it attaches to the knee. Fortunately, Pedroia does not seem to have done any long-term damage and ought to be ready to go for a normal spring. Though he only made 425 plate appearances, Pedroia slashed a healthy .291/.356/.441.
- Though the Red Sox had one of the league’s more notable backlogs of outfielders heading into 2015, the team now looks in need of an addition, Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald explains. It’s not entirely clear what route the club will go, and it does have Brock Holt on hand as a super-utility option to go with presumptive starters Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., and Rusney Castillo. Mastrodonato suggests that a lefty masher might make sense.
- Hector Olivera is a key to the Braves‘ plans, writes MLB.com’s Mark Bowman. President of baseball operations John Hart said that the club took the risk, after “multiple looks,” in order to take a rare chance to add “a nice five- or six-hole hitter that we’re going to control affordably.” That will, in theory, enable the club to “add other pieces” along with him.
Heyman’s Latest: Greinke, Mattingly, QOs, Gordon, Anderson, Hunter
Jon Heyman of CBS Sports kicks off Friday morning with a pair of columns — the first being a piece on Zack Greinke‘s opt-out status and the second being his weekly Inside Baseball column. Heyman writes in the first piece that Greinke will indeed opt out of the remaining three years and $71MM on his Dodgers contract, as has been widely anticipated for the better part of a year. One general manager suggested to Heyman that Greinke will receive, “at minimum,” multiple offers of $125MM over the next five seasons. That GM wagered a guess at the winning bid: $150MM over five years. Heyman notes that while many teams — the Cubs, Giants, Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, D-Backs and Rangers, among others — will be in the mix for Greinke this winter, the right-hander enjoyed 2015 with the Dodgers more than he enjoyed his first two seasons, and L.A. will attempt to bring him back. Per Heyman, Greinke didn’t mesh with Josh Beckett and Hanley Ramirez in previous years but had nothing but positive feelings about the 2015 campaign.
Onto some highlights from his second column…
- There’s no certainty on the job status of Don Mattingly right now despite three consecutive division titles, Heyman writes. Mattingly is well-liked by the new Dodgers front office on a personal level, and the team is pleased with how he handled Andre Ethier‘s shift to a part-time role, A.J. Ellis‘ shift to a backup role in favor of Yasmani Grandal, and the emergence of Corey Seager over Jimmy Rollins late in the year. Mattingly’s people-managing skills are valued by the Dodgers, even if his in-game tactics aren’t quite as strong. Heyman notes that with the Dodgers unconvinced of Mattingly as their long-term option, they may allow him to interview with other clubs, and both the Nationals and Marlins would show interest.
- The Orioles are believed to be hesitant to make a qualifying offer to Matt Wieters and will only do so if they’re convinced that he won’t take it. (I can’t imagine a Scott Boras client that plays a premium position in the midst of his prime age doing so under any circumstances.) The White Sox will make a QO to Jeff Samardzija, who will not accept it, as has been suggested multiple times over the past couple of months.
- Colby Rasmus, on the other hand, is not expected to receive a $15.8MM qualifying offer from the Astros despite 25 regular-season homers and a strong postseason showing. Heyman writes that Alex Gordon will be “a name to keep an eye on” in connection with the Astros this offseason, as the team may look to inject its lineup with more on-base percentage and batting average than the 2015 crop. They’ll also look for more steady production at first and third base this winter after a season of boom-or-bust results from Luis Valbuena and Chris Carter.
- The Dodgers are set on making a qualifying offer to Howie Kendrick and are also planning on making a QO to Brett Anderson despite his injury history. The latter of the two drew some surprise when Heyman shared it with execs around the league, though as he points out, L.A. is in need of pitching. If Anderson accepts — again, a scenario I find unlikely given his age and strong 2015 results — he’d solidify a spot in the rotation behind Clayton Kershaw. And, I’ll point out, Anderson’s 2016 salary would then check in just $3.4MM north of the $12.4MM he earned in total after receiving a $10MM base salary and earning another $2.4MM worth of innings-based incentives this season.
- The Twins are willing to pay a premium to bring Torii Hunter back to their clubhouse if he’s willing to take a reduced role. Hunter, though, has been resistant to that idea in the past. He’s not yet decided whether or not he’ll return to the Majors for his age-41 season or call it a career.
- Other qualifying offer notes from Heyman throughout the column indicate that Padres people have suggested that they’ll make a QO to Ian Kennedy, though rival execs remain skeptical. Current expectation in the industry is that the Mets won’t make a qualifying offer to Daniel Murphy, and the same is true of the Nationals with regard to Denard Span, who suffered through an injury-shortened season. Kennedy and Murphy seem like easy calls to decline the qualifying offer to me, whereas Span is a tougher case due to his age and injuries, which included season-ending hip surgery. I can see a case for Span taking the $15.8MM payday — the initial contract extension he signed with the Twins, after all, was only for $16.5MM guaranteed, though that rose to $25MM after his 2016 option was exercised.
- The Nationals have received permission from the Giants to interview bench coach Ron Wotus to fill their managerial vacancy. Wotus has coached on the Giants’ Major League staff for the past 17 seasons and is a two-time Minor League Manager of the Year.
AL East Notes: Estrada, Orioles, Rasmus, Young
Fangraphs’ Tony Blengino examines Marco Estrada‘s curious skill set, pointing out that metrics such as FIP don’t give the soft-tossing righty full credit for his unrivaled ability to limit line-drives. Additionally, hitters league-wide do less damage on fly-balls hit off pitches thrown between 75 and 94 mph, Blengino notes, so Estrada’s lower velocity and extreme fly-ball tendencies actually work reasonably well together. With a lack of line-drives, more weak contact than average on grounders and limited damage on his glut of fly-balls, Estrada could be a huge bargain this winter if he can he had on a two- or three-year deal worth $8MM or so per year, Blengino writes. Blengino notes that Estrada “lives on the head of a pin,” and even minor changes in his arsenal could be significant detriments, but with a relatively minimal price tag, he concludes that Estrada is worth the risk in the aforementioned price range.
More from the AL East as the Blue Jays look to rally back against the Rangers in the decisive Game 5 of the ALDS…
- The Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina writes that Orioles GM/executive vice president Dan Duquette and manager Buck Showalter laughed off reports of tension between the two when asked about their reportedly strained relationship. Duquette characterized such reports as little more than gossip, while Showalter said that it’s healthy for the two to disagree. “We better disagree about some things and kick things around,” said Showalter. “I disagree with my coaches. They disagree with me. That’s the least of our challenges. Throughout the organization we have a healthy draw of opinions, almost too much sometimes.” Encina went on to look at some of the things that went wrong this year, noting that many within the clubhouse were furious to see Tommy Hunter traded shortly after the team strengthened the roster by adding Gerardo Parra. Players felt it was a cost-cutting measure when the team should be striving for the playoffs.
- The Orioles made a run at Colby Rasmus as a replacement for Nick Markakis and Nelson Cruz last winter, writes Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Baltimore was willing to match Rasmus’ 2014 salary of $7MM on a one-year deal but didn’t want to go beyond that point. When the Astros offered $8MM, the Orioles backed out of the pursuit. While many will look at Rasmus’ postseason heroics and chalk it up as another missed opportunity for Baltimore, Connolly points out that Rasmus’ marginal regular season production wouldn’t have been enough to make a big impact on Baltimore’s bottom-line results this season anyway.
- The Orioles have offered 2016 contracts to each member of their 2015 coaching staff, Duquette told reporters, including MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko (Twitter link). The Orioles are hoping to finalize each of those deals this week, he adds.
- Outfielder Chris Young had a strong rebound season as a platoon outfield option for the Yankees in 2015, but the free-agent-to-be told Dan Martin and George A. King III of the New York Post a few days ago that it’s still too soon to tell whether he’ll be back in 2016 or not. Young said that he being with the Yankees from late 2014 through the 2015 season and made some adjustments in the Bronx that helped revive his production. However, I’d point out that as a free agent this time around, he’ll have a much stronger case than last winter. Fourth outfield types such as Rajai Davis and Nate McClouth have signed two-year deals worth between $10-11MM in total over the past few seasons, so Young will certainly be looking at an increase on his $2.5MM base salary from 2015.
AL Notes: Mariners, Rondon, Orioles, Hazen
New Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto says that he believes the organization can win by building around its core, as MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. “Whether it be through the primary market of free-agent and trade acquisition or the secondary market of waivers, smaller trade [and] Minor League deals, you can come up with a very creative roster balance that will allow this team to contend now,” Dipoto said. “I believe that the quality of the core group screams for it. You’ve got too many good players to believe that you’re far away from winning.” Adding depth and athleticism while improving the pen are some of Dipoto’s priorities heading into the winter.
Here are some more notes out of the American League:
- The Tigers haven’t given up on powerful 24-year-old Bruce Rondon despite the fact that he hasn’t yet evolved into a reliable MLB presence, James Schmehl of MLive.com writes. We’ve heard this news item before, of course, but Schmehl provides a host of quotes from Detroit GM Al Avila which are interesting not only in regard to Rondon, but more generally. “I’ve had many conversations with him. He’s trying to figure it out,” Avila said. “You have to understand that we all come from different backgrounds, and we all have different experiences, and everybody learns at a different pace.” The veteran baseball man continued: “If he returns a mature young man, he’s got all the ability in the world. The ability’s there. It’s a matter of all the other intangibles that every other player at some point goes through. Some easier than others.”
- The Orioles‘ relief corps could be in for a makeover this winter, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Righty Dylan Bundy is perhaps the most intriguing possible addition. His progression is still hardly a sure thing, but the early returns are promising. The two surest things, suggests Kubatko, are closer Zach Britton and righty Brad Brach. Youngster Mychal Givens also seems likely to earn a spot. Otherwise, there are plenty of options but little in the way of certainty. At a minimum, says Kubatko, the club will be in the market for a lefty reliever.
- Just-promoted Red Sox GM Mike Hazen is humble and hard-working, the Boston Herald’s Jason Mastrodonato writes. And those attributes may just be the key to his success. The piece offers an interesting look at the 39-year-old executive and is well worth a read.
De Fratus, Parmelee, Marcum Elect Free Agency
Several players with significant big league service time have elected free agency since the conclusion of the regular season. Per baseball’s collective bargaining agreement, players with more than three years of Major League service time that have been outrighted off a 40-man roster have the right to elect free agency at season’s end.
This list — not to be confused with our full list of 2015-16 free agents (which has been updated to include these names) — represents some of the players that would’ve been arbitration eligible following the season and were regular or fairly regular contributors recently but now find themselves on the open market after being outrighted…
- First baseman and outfielder Chris Parmelee has elected free agency, tweets Chris Cotillo of SB Nation. Parmelee spent the 2015 season in the Orioles organization and made 102 plate appearances with the big league club. He hit a modest .216/.255/.433, but he was much better at Triple-A. The 27-year-old is a career .245/.311/.396 hitter in 1,003 plate appearances. He spent his entire career with the Twins prior to joining Baltimore this year.
- Veteran pitcher Shaun Marcum is also a free agent, per the same tweet from Cotillo. Marcum, 33, is a well-traveled veteran of eight seasons (he didn’t pitch in the majors in 2009 or 2014). He’s tossed 1,030 innings with 167 starts, 28 relief appearances, and a 3.93 ERA. More recently, he struggled at the major league level. He has a 5.34 ERA since 2013 in 113 innings. This season with the Indians, Marcum continued to post a decent strikeout (7.71 K/9) and walk (2.83 BB/9) rate, but he allowed nine home runs in just 33 innings. The fly ball pitcher throws just 85 mph.
- Justin De Fratus has elected to become a free agent, the right-hander announced via his Instagram page (hat tip to Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer). De Fratus praised the Phillies organization and thanked it for giving him his start as a professional ballplayer “but it’s time for me to start a new chapter in my life and career.” The Phillies outrighted De Fratus off their 40-man roster on Wednesday. The righty was originally drafted by the Phils in the 11th round of the 2007 draft and he’d posted solid career numbers out of Philadelphia’s bullpen (3.08 ERA, 8.1 K/9, 2.27 K/BB rate over 114 IP) prior to this season. Over 80 innings in 2015, De Fratus posted a 5.51 ERA, 7.7 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9. Indicators such as xFIP and SIERA suggest that De Fratus was a bit unlucky to post that 5.51 ERA as he was hurt by a .335 BABIP and 66.2% strand rate. De Fratus, who turns 28 later this month, is entering his first year of arbitration eligibility and MLBTR projects him to earn a $700K salary in 2016.
Axisa On Qualifying Offer Candidates
Thirteen players will “definitely” receive a qualifying offer, speculates Mike Axisa of CBS Sports. All told, 50 players are eligible for the qualifying offer (pending a couple expected opt-outs). Axisa believes 20 free agents are likely to be extended an offer, although he believes the case for seven of those players is less than certain. With the value of a qualifying offer now set at $15.8MM, we have a better idea of what clubs must risk in order to gain a compensation pick.
If all 20 of Axisa’s picks were to receive an offer, it would set a new record (previous high: 13 players in 2013). Overall, 34 players have received a qualifying offer in past offseasons. All 34 have rejected it – a sign that clubs are conservative with the offer. Here’s more from Axisa:
- Interestingly, Axisa counts Orioles catcher Matt Wieters among the locks to receive an offer. However, we learned earlier today that the club may prefer to allocate that money elsewhere – if they believe he might accept the offer. To me, there does seem to be a real chance that Wieters would choose to remain with Baltimore for one more season. Camden Yards is one of the best ballparks for a switch-hitter to improve his value.
- Of Axisa’s seven players “likely” to receive an offer, Ian Desmond strikes me as a near guarantee. While he had a disappointing 2015 season, his track record should easily support a sizable multi-year offer. I could see him accepting the offer only if he knows an injury has permanently reduced his skill set. Similarly, medical information may be the only cause for the Nationals to pass on issuing an offer.
- Axisa also reminds us of the 14 players who are no longer eligible for a qualifying offer because they were traded mid-season. The biggest names include David Price, Yoenis Cespedes, and Johnny Cueto. Scott Kazmir and Ben Zobrist were also near-locks for an offer while Gerardo Parra may have played his way into consideration. It’s all moot now.
- Twelve players have options that are likely to be exercised. Of those, I see Nori Aoki, Joaquin Benoit, and David Murphy as the hardest decisions. All three are team options. As a soon-to-be 34-year-old platoon outfielder, Murphy’s case is easily the most difficult. He’s posted 0.1 fWAR over the last three seasons (1,329 plate appearances) and will be owed $7MM. It’s been speculated that the Angels were at least open to keeping him, but that was before they hired new GM Billy Eppler. Yesterday, we heard the club may prefer to use that money on a “more impactful bat.”
AL East Notes: Wieters, Orioles, Yankees, Hendriks
Only one World Series has ever ended on a caught stealing, and that rare event took place on this day in 1926. The would-be base thief? Of all people, it was Babe Ruth thrown out trying to steal second by Cardinals catcher Bob O’Farrell to end Game Seven and give the Cards their first World Series title. This was one of a whopping five World Series-deciding games the Yankees have played on October 10 — they clinched victories in 1937, 1951 and 1956, and came up short in 1926 and 1957.
Here’s the latest from the AL East…
- Will the Orioles issue a one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offer to Matt Wieters? The Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina and MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski each examine that question in separate pieces, as Wieters’ health status and underwhelming 2015 numbers could make $15.8MM too large a price tag for the O’s to potentially pay. Wieters could take the QO in order to prove his value in 2016 and elevate his free agent stock for next offseason, though no player has yet accepted a qualifying offer (and it could be a particular surprise if a Scott Boras client like Wieters was the first to do so). If Wieters did accept the QO, Encina notes that he’d be taking up budget room that could prevent Baltimore from re-signing Chris Davis or making another big free agent splash. “Some in the industry believe the Orioles” are willing to go with a Caleb Joseph/Steve Clevenger catching tandem in 2016 rather than Wieters, Melewski writes, though in not making Wieters a QO, Baltimore would lose the chance at a first-round draft pick as compensation for Wieters signing elsewhere.
- In another piece from Melewski, he cites Marco Estrada, Doug Fister and Ian Kennedy as possible fits for the Orioles this winter since it’s unclear as to whether the O’s will shop at the top of the free agent pitching market.
- Brian Cashman will have to “get creative” to upgrade the Yankees given the number of big contracts already on the books, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News writes, such as how the GM added Didi Gregorius and Nathan Eovaldi last winter. Feinsand also suggests four more ways for the Yankees to improve next year, such as deciding on who plays second base, finding playing time for Greg Bird, signing Justin Upton and staying away from David Price.
- Liam Hendriks was a member of five different organizations between December 2013 and October 2014 but he has seemingly found some stability as an important member of the Blue Jays bullpen. The Australian righty talks to Fangraphs’ David Laurila about his move to relief pitching, his increased velocity and the stress of switching teams so often within that 11-month span.
AL East Notes: Samardzija, Johnson, Kline
The Yankees are likely to pursue righty Jeff Samardzija in free agency, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. He’s viewed by the organization as a competitor who could be had at a nice price given his forgettable 2015 campaign. Of course, the 30-year-old could see interest from a variety of other clubs for the same reasons. He’ll be one of the more interesting players to watch in free agency.
Here are few more AL East notes:
- Red Sox lefty Brian Johnson made one big league start this year, but shortly after was shut down with elbow issues. But he’s back to throwing again, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford reports, and appears to be structurally sound. “They said my UCL [ulnar collateral ligament] was like I hadn’t even pitched,” Johnson said. “It was really, really good. It was nothing ligament-related.” The hope is that the 24-year-old will be ready for a normal spring. Given his strong results at Triple-A before the elbow difficulties arose, he remains an interesting near-future piece for a team that also has Eduardo Rodriguez and Henry Owens showing promise early in their big league careers.
- Another Orioles right-handed pitching prospect is dealing with early-career injury woes, as Branden Kline had Tommy John surgery yesterday, according to Steve Melewski of MASNsports.com. A second-round draft pick in 2012, Kline missed much of the year as he attempted to avoid the procedure. He pitched to a 3.66 ERA over 39 1/3 Double-A innings on the year before being shut down.
AL Notes: Tigers, Rotation, Rondon, Gwynn, Bundy, Yanks
Tigers GM Al Avila addressed the press today, and Chris Iott of MLive.com has the story (or, if you prefer, the video). We already touched upon his comments regarding the possibility of a J.D. Martinez extension. He also noted the importance of bolstering the pitching staff, saying that the “hope is to find two starting pitchers” — one toward the top of the staff and another back-end arm. The club will also consider newly-acquired youngsters Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, and Michael Fulmer for starting jobs, along with the struggling Shane Greene — who could instead move to relief duty. Speaking of the pen, Avila noted that adding a lockdown closer would be “a tough task” given the paucity of 9th-inning arms on the market. He also noted that pitching was a greater priority than adding in the outfield, where the team feels good about youngster Tyler Collins. Though Avila didn’t reveal details, he said the cash would be there to make the additions that the team needs: “We’ll have a highly competitive payroll, as we have in the past.”
Here’s more from Detroit and the rest of the American League:
- Tigers reliever Bruce Rondon took the closer job briefly but was ultimately sent home early for an apparent lack of effort. Avila says that the fireballer will need to prove that he is committed and capable, with the GM saying he’s “keeping my fingers crossed that the lesson was learned and he comes back ready to go.” One player who won’t be coming back is veteran infielder Josh Wilson, who has been told he’ll not be re-signed. And Avila said that long-time backstop Alex Avila — who is, of course, his son — is also expected to end up with a new organization.
- Changes in the Mariners‘ front office continued on Thursday, as Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reported that director of player development Chris Gwynn has stepped down from his post (Twitter link). The Mariners have since confirmed Gwynn’s resignation, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets that his expectation for the role to be filled by Angels assistant GM Scott Servais — a lieutenant of new Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto when the two worked together in Anaheim.
- Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy threw off a mound on Wednesday for the first time since shoulder troubles caused him to be shut down for the season in May, writes the Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina. Bundy, formerly rated as the No. 2 overall prospect in the game by both Baseball America and MLB.com, threw 20 pitches in the side session. Director of player development Brian Graham said that Bundy has no physical issues and showed good velocity. The team will decide if he’s to throw in winter ball or possibly the Arizona Fall League, but as Encina notes, getting him some work will be important. Bundy is out of minor league options and will have to stick on the Opening Day roster to avoid waivers next season, so getting him back into game shape carries extra importance for Baltimore.
- The Yankees have quite a bit of work to do heading into the offseason, writes MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom. Unfortunately, the team doesn’t have much in the way of financial “wiggle room” to pursue the likes of David Price, Zack Greinke or Justin Upton, despite the fact that each player would fill a need for the club, Bloom opines. Perhaps chief among the Yankees’ needs will be to determine if age, injuries or simply general wear and tear contributed to the decline of Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Chase Headley and Carlos Beltran down the stretch, he adds.
AL East Notes: Rays, Hanley, Red Sox, Matusz
The Yankees’ postseason didn’t last long, as the team fell, 3-0, to the Astros in tonight’s American League Wild Card game. Their focus will now shift to the offseason, but here are some notes on the other teams in the AL East that have already been plotting out their winter game plans…
- The Rays are having conversations about payroll constraints, general manager Matthew Silverman told reporters, including Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (Twitter link). As Silverman points out, the top 10 teams in the league averaged a payroll that was $100MM greater than the Rays’ 2015 mark of $75MM. Payroll restrictions typically prevent the Rays from significant free-agent expenditures, and they also prevent Tampa Bay from being able to hang onto many of their homegrown stars. A look at MLBTR’s arbitration projections shows that the Rays could have some tough calls on their hands this winter, as their 11 arb-eligible players project to earn a combined $28.9MM.
- The Red Sox are asking Hanley Ramirez to drop 15 to 20 pounds this offseason, interim manager Torey Lovullo told Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald. The organization feels that as an infielder, it’ll pay off to be more agile than was required in left field. Ramirez was listed at 225 pounds this season, though Lauber notes that he reported at 240 pounds — 10 pounds heavier than he was in 2014. While the Sox will likely make an effort to trade Ramirez his offseason, he’ll be penciled in at first base if he returns to the club in 2016.
- Lauber’s colleague, Jason Mastrodonato, asks five critical questions for the Red Sox as they head into the offseason. Among them are whether or not Christian Vazquez will be able to throw right away next season (the young catcher had Tommy John surgery earlier this year), if Rusney Castillo‘s bat will merit regular playing time and if the team can effectively develop starting pitching or if changes are needed.
- Arthroscopic surgery on the right (non-throwing) shoulder of Orioles lefty Brian Matusz went as planned today, writes Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun. Matusz said that the recovery process should take about a month, which should give him time to recover and have a typical offseason. Matusz is arbitration eligible for the final time this offseason and will be a free agent next winter.