Free Agent Stock Watch: Nick Markakis
Though he technically has an option on his contract, Nick Markakis seems like a virtual lock to hit the open market this coming offseason. Markakis has a $17.5MM mutual option with a $2MM buyout, but mutual options are almost never exercised. Typically, if a player plays well enough for the team to exercise the option, that means he’s played well enough to beat the value of that option on the open market. Conversely, if a player doesn’t feel that he can top the option’s value on the open market, the team likely doesn’t wish to pay him at that level.
With that said, Markakis appears poised to join what will be a relatively weak free agent market for hitters and outfielders. Aside from Colby Rasmus (28 next year) and Melky Cabrera (30 next season), Markakis (31 in 2015) is one of the youngest free agent outfielders on the market. Older options like Michael Cuddyer, Nelson Cruz and Torii Hunter will be available, but each will also carry greater risk on a multi-year deal. From an age standpoint, Markakis is well-positioned.
From a performance standpoint, he’s begun to erase the memory of a 2013 season that saw him bat just .271/.329/.356 — disappointing numbers for a player who slashed .295/.365/.455 from 2006-12. In this season’s early stages, Markakis has upped his walk rate to 8.8 percent and is striking out a career-low 9.4 percent of his trips to the dish. Overall, he has produced a .317/.375/.414 batting line with a pair of homers and two steals. The stolen bases are noteworthy, as that pair of thefts matches the total that Markakis has posted over the past two seasons combined. Should he again become a threat to steal 10-15 bases per season, that would no doubt be appealing to teams.
Of course, Markakis’s early success isn’t guaranteed throughout the season, and there are likely some who doubt that he can sustain the production after a down year in 2013. It’s possible, though, that Markakis was slowed last year by lasting effects from a trio of surgeries that he endured in 2012. Markakis had a sports hernia procedure that January, underwent surgery to repair a broken hamate bone that June and then ended his season with a fractured thumb that also required surgery in September.
Prior to that poor year, Markakis had posted a 117 wRC+ and 118 OPS+ over his career, indicating that he was 17 to 18 percent better than a league-average hitter. While last season marked the only time that his OPS dipped below .756 and the only time that OPS+ and wRC+ labeled him a below-average hitter, Markakis has seen a dip in power since 2010; he averaged 20 homers with a .177 ISO from 2007-09, but he’s averaged 12 homers with a .125 ISO in four full seasons since.
On the other side of the coin is his defense. Markakis has a Gold Glove to his credit, but sabermetric defensive stats such as Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved have pegged him as a below average fielder dating back to the 2009 season. His range has been the reasoning behind those ratings, as his arm continues to be average or better, according to each metric.
Ultimately, if Markakis continues to produce at a level that’s well above the league average (as he has so far in 2014), it seems likely that clubs will be willing to overlook his rough 2013, perhaps chalking it up to a down season in the wake of several surgeries. Though that may cause some to question his durability, interested teams will be quick to note that he averaged 151 games from 2006-13 — appearing 157 games or more five different times.
Curtis Granderson was paid handsomely this offseason even after he appeared in just 61 games in his platform season. If Markakis sustains his current pace, he could well be viewed as an above-average corner bat with a few peak years remaining, even with some diminished power numbers. Markakis’ name doesn’t come up all that often when discussing next winter’s free agent class, but a typical year for him will position the longtime Oriole for a nice multi-year deal on the open market.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Orioles Discussed Astros’ Catchers
Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette spoke with Astros GM Jeff Luhnow this past weekend “gauging whether there was a potential match” between the two clubs on a trade for a backup catcher, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko reports. The O’s are known to be looking for depth behind the plate with Matt Wieters on the DL, and Kubatko believes the Orioles could favor adding a right-handed hitting catcher to platoon with left-handed hitting Steve Clevenger.
Houston currently has catchers Jason Castro, Carlos Corporan and Max Stassi on its 40-man roster, with Stassi and Carlos Perez (both right-handed bats) at Triple-A. It seems unlikely that the O’s would make a move for an everyday catcher like Castro, though there is some uncertainly about how long Wieters will be out. The switch-hitting Corporan has only a .603 career OPS against southpaws and has mostly hit from the left side over his career, so he isn’t really a fit alongside Clevenger. Perez has some solid on-base numbers in the minors but he is pretty comparable to Caleb Joseph, the right-handed hitting catcher already on the Orioles’ roster.
This is just my speculation, but Stassi might be the most intriguing option for Baltimore, as the 23-year-old posted an .863 OPS in 323 Double-A plate appearances last year. The 2014 Baseball America Propsect Handbook ranked Stassi as the 12th-best prospect in the Astros’ system, noting that while Stassi has been plagued by injuries throughout his career, he has potential as an everyday starter in the bigs. There were rumors last winter that the Astros could clear a path for Stassi by trading Castro to one of several interested suitors. Adding a promising young catcher like Stassi could also give the O’s a future option should Wieters leave in free agency after the 2015 season.
Left-hander Troy Patton has been mentioned as possible trade bait for the Orioles, and Patton could help a Houston bullpen that ranks last in the majors with a 6.06 ERA. The southpaw was originally drafted by the Astros in 2004 (going to Baltimore as part of the Miguel Tejada trade package of 2007) and has a 3.06 ERA, 3.21 K/BB rate and a 7.1 K/9 in 139 career appearances, all but two of them coming out of the bullpen. Given Stassi’s potential, it may take more than just Patton to complete the trade if the Orioles indeed have the catcher in mind.
Latest On Orioles’ Catching Situation
With Matt Wieters now on the disabled list with an elbow injury, Orioles manager Buck Showalter confirms that the team is only the lookout for more catching, MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko writes. Showalter says, however, that the team is being cautious about pursuing trades. “Obviously, I’m not going to insult your intelligence,” Showalter says. “But it’s not like something you snap your fingers and people are going to bend over and give you what you need.”
FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal wrote yesterday that the Orioles, who now have Steve Clevenger and Caleb Joseph behind the dish, were looking for a backup catcher. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also noted that the team could deal pitcher Troy Patton, perhaps for a catcher.
In the meantime, it’s unclear when Wieters will be able to return to the position, as MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli reports. “Nobody knows exactly what’s going to happen tomorrow,” Wieters says. “We’re just going to go every day, come here ready to work, ready to rehab and when I’m ready I’m ready.”
Injury Notes: Tommy John Surgeries, Chapman, Davis
This year more than ever, it seems an enormous number of pitchers have suffered injuries that required Tommy John surgery. That includes big-leaguers like Matt Moore, Kris Medlen, Brandon Beachy, Patrick Corbin, A.J. Griffin and Jarrod Parker, along with potential first-round picks in Jeff Hoffman and Erick Fedde. But as Brian MacPherson of the Providence Journal notes, the prognosis for pitchers who have Tommy John surgeries is now very good, and teams are much more cautious about diagnosing significant problems than they used to be. MacPherson quotes a number of former big-league pitchers whose experiences would seem wildly out of place today. “Everybody kept thinking, ‘If I had surgery, it might be the end of my career, so I’m going to pitch until it blows, and then that’s the end of my career,’” says former Orioles, Red Sox, Royals and Brewers hurler Mike Boddicker, who pitched in the big leagues until 1993. “It used to be that you had some inflammation — tendinitis. That was the big thing. You had tendinitis. You look some anti-inflammatories, and you’d rest a little bit, and then you’d keep going.” Here are more notes from around the big leagues.
- Aroldis Chapman‘s return after a stay on the disabled list with a head injury allows the Reds plenty of flexibility in their bullpen, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Chapman’s addition bumps Jonathan Broxton back to a setup role. The Reds have been fortunate in that their starters have worked deep into games, meaning that their bullpen likely won’t be overworked going forward. “There’s just not a lot of opportunities for these guys to come in the fifth or sixth and, sometimes, the seventh inning,” says manager Bryan Price. “We’ve spent a lot of time closing a game with one to two innings of bullpen work.”
- Chris Davis made an appearance for Double-A Bowie on Saturday to rehab his injured oblique, and he feels he’s ready to return to the Orioles, MASNsports.com’s Steve Melewski tweets. Davis last appeared in a game for the Orioles on April 25, and Steve Pearce has largely handled first-base duties since then.
Orioles Looking For Catcher, Could Deal Troy Patton
The Orioles are trying hard to find a backup catcher, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweets. Matt Wieters currently has an elbow injury that limits him to DH duty, leaving the Orioles with Steve Clevenger and Caleb Joseph behind the dish. Joseph, a minor-league veteran, had been hitting just .261/.284/.402 at Triple-A Norfolk, although he hit .299/.346/.494 for Double-A Bowie in 2013.
The O’s are considering offers for pitcher Troy Patton, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets, connecting that information to their backup catcher search. Patton has made three appearances out of the Orioles’ bullpen this season after serving a 25-game suspension for a positive amphetamine test. He posted a 3.70 ERA with 6.8 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 for the Orioles in 2013.
AL Notes: Ramirez, Baker, Twins, Hoffman
MLB is nearing agreement on a plan to send an All-Star squad off to Japan this November for a series against the Japanese national team, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. Of course, the league has a rich history of sending its best on tour to one of the world’s great ballplaying nations.
Here are some notes from around the American League:
- Manny Ramirez is still looking for another opportunity, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. While recent contact with the Orioles failed to materialize into an offer, a scout who has seen Ramirez work out recently said that the 42-year-old slugger looks fit and was impressive with the bat. Agent Alex Esteban tells Heyman that most of the interest has come from American League teams, though several NL clubs have checked in as well. MLBTR’s Zach Links reported back in February that Ramirez had elected to join Miami Sports Management.
- The Rangers regretted the need to designate Scott Baker for assignment after a brief call-up, reports MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. With Baker needing several days of rest after throwing 5 1/3 innings of relief in his only appearance, and the bullpen looking overworked, GM Jon Daniels said the move was an unfortunate necessity. “He did everything we asked,” said Daniels. “Unfortunately we are at a spot where the bullpen is taxed because our starters are not getting deep into games.” (Of course, the most recent Rangers starter — ace Yu Darvish — did manage to go deep in tonight’s game.) As for Baker’s fate, Daniels says that the club will “see if there is trade interest” but otherwise will place him on outright waivers.
- With the fifth overall slot in the upcoming amateur draft, the Twins could be eyeing either high school shortstop Nick Gordon or college righty Aaron Nola, ESPN.com’s Keith Law wrote in a chat yesterday. Law also notes that the Blue Jays could be a player for injured righty Jeff Hoffman, who could also intrigue several other AL clubs (Law lists the Astros, Royals, and Red Sox, while also citing the Nationals as a possibility).
AL East Notes: Morales, O’s, Francisco, Yankees
Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette appeared on Buster Olney’s podcast today and discussed a variety of topics, including Kendrys Morales (Duquette appears around the 27:00 mark). Asked by Olney about the speculation that Morales could help his team, Duquette replied, “We don’t have any plans to add anybody to our ball club right now … Matt Wieters, with the issue he has in with his elbow, is going to take some at-bats in our DH position, so we’re all set. When we signed Nelson Cruz, that pretty much closed the door on that speculation.” Duquette also talked about his team’s strong start to the year in spite of several injuries as well as Manny Machado‘s elite defense. More from that interview and the rest of the AL East below…
- Duquette also fielded questions on the contract status of Wieters and Chris Davis (around the 36:20 mark), noting that the club has twice tried to extend Wieters and once tried to extend Davis as well. “I like Chris and Matt on the ball club, but having said that, we’ve already made that effort, and I’m not really going to be discussing that this year during the season with those players.” Both Wieters and Davis are Scott Boras clients, which makes the task of hammering out a long-term deal a more difficult one, as Boras typically encourages his players to go year-to-year and test the open market.
- Shifting gears from the O’s to the Blue Jays, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm tweets that the main reason behind Juan Francisco choosing to sign in Toronto was a recruiting pitch from Edwin Encarnacion. After Francisco was cut by the Brewers in Spring Training, Encarnacion called his countryman and pitched Toronto, and the result has been a .311/.403/.623 batting line with five homers in 72 PAs for Francisco.
- In a special piece for ESPN New York, Danny Knobler writes that the perception of the Yankees as an “old-school” team is misleading. Knobler spoke with Astros GM Jeff Luhnow, who called the Yankees “way more [progressive] than people think.” Knobler also points out that the Yankees trail only the Astros in terms of infield shifting this season, a fact that isn’t lost on division rival Joe Maddon. The Rays skipper told Knobler: “They’re exceeding us. It doesn’t surprise me. It disappoints me. I much preferred when they thought we were nuts, that we were bastardizing the game.”
MRI Indicates Wieters Does Not Need Surgery
After receiving a scare when Matt Wieters‘ MRI results were sent to Dr. James Andrews for further review, the Orioles received good news today, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun (all Twitter links). After reviewing the MRI, Andrews informed the team that Wieters isn’t a candidate for surgery.
The belief, says Connolly’s source, is that the injury could have been preexisting, dating back to Wieters’ time as a pitcher in college, and he may have simply tweaked it recently. Connolly adds that Wieters won’t catch for awhile, but he is expected to be able to DH. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the concern was over Wieters’ flexor mass, not his ulnar collateral ligament.
MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko speculated this morning that if Wieters were to be relegated to DH duties for awhile, the team would purchase the contract of Caleb Joseph to serve as Steve Clevenger‘s backup. Baltimore has an open 40-man roster spot, which would make that scenario easier for the team. That they won’t be without Wieters’ bat has to come as a huge sigh of relief to an Orioles team that has already seen Chris Davis land on the disabled list after spending the season’s first month without Manny Machado. Wieters is hitting .341/.374/.560 with five homers through his first 23 games.
AL Notes: A’s, O’Flaherty, Wieters, Tomlin, Bauer
The Athletics have continued to adapt to changes in the market and the analysis of the game since the much-hyped Moneyball era, writes MLB.com’s Mike Bauman. Getting on base is still a key, says Bauman, but this year’s club is winning with success on the bases and in the field. Manager Bob Melvin explained: “A guy like Josh Reddick, even when he’s not swinging the bat well, can play because he runs the bases well and he plays good defense. There’s value to all different variables, and we do value all of them.”
- Of course, the most recent notable shift has been GM Billy Beane’s heavy investment in the bullpen, which continued with the Athletics‘ recent extension of Sean Doolittle. The club’s relief corps currently has a 2.71 collective ERA (fourth-best in the bigs), and could soon benefit from the return of Eric O’Flaherty. Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that the former Braves southpaw is nearing a rehab assignment and could be looking at an early June debut in Oakland. O’Flaherty was inked to a back-loaded, two-year, $7MM deal in the offseason.
- The Orioles may be holding their collective breath until tomorrow, when catcher Matt Wieters will pay a visit to Dr. James Andrews to receive an evaluation of his sore elbow, reports Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports. Though Passan notes the possibility of a UCL tear, Wieters played today in the DH slot and manager Buck Showalter downplayed the seriousness of the issue in comments to reporters, including Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (links to Twitter). Showalter said that the team simply hopes to learn more about the cause of the soreness, and hopes to have Wieters back behind the dish tomorrow.
- The Indians have struggled to nail down the back of the rotation in the early part of the season. After letting Aaron Harang go and seeing Carlos Carrasco struggle, says Zack Meisel of the Plain Dealer, the team will now give Josh Tomlin a chance to seize a regular spot. Manager Terry Francona explained that the decision-making out of camp was driven by roster limitations. “For what I think are the right reasons, we wanted to see Carlos pitch,” he said, noting that Tomlin suffered in some respects because he still had an option. “We tried to figure out a way to keep Aaron Harang. We had so many meetings about that. You want to keep depth, knowing that you’re going to need it.” Tomlin, a 29-year-old righty, was solid in his return to Cleveland tonight after missing most of 2013 to Tommy John rehab and then losing his arbitration case to the club. David Laurila of Fangraphs provided an interesting breakdown of Tomlin’s offerings and how he hopes to succeed in his return from surgery.
- Of course, the Indians also have a surging Trevor Bauer throwing at the Triple-A level. As Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes, the 23-year-old is among the top prospects in the game who are still waiting for their chance to shine at the major league level. For Bauer, who had 25 days of MLB service coming into the year, extended time in the minors would be needed to maintain an additional year of team control and avoid Super Two status. Rosenthal discusses the fact that several excellent youngsters seem ready for promotions that have not yet been forthcoming.
AL East Notes: Morrow, Francisco, Cruz, Santana, Sabathia
With Blue Jays starter Brandon Morrow going to the 60-day DL with a torn tendon sheath, the Star’s Richard Griffin writes that Morrow may well have thrown his last pitch for the club. As Griffin notes, the 29-year-old’s $10MM club option (which comes with a $1MM buyout) seems unlikely to be exercised at this point after yet another significant injury. Here’s more from Toronto and the rest of the AL East:
- Indications are that the Blue Jays will look to keep power-hitting corner infielder Juan Francisco in the fold after Adam Lind is activated, tweets Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star. Discussing the situation, MLB.com’s Gregor Chisholm writes that Toronto could conceivably drop one of its eight relievers or shift Brett Lawrie into the club’s regular second base role.
- Orioles slugger Nelson Cruz discussed his difficult last year with MLB.com’s Britt Ghiroli, saying that it was hardest on his family. As for the qualifying offer situation, Cruz said he probably would have grabbed it had he known what was in store. “But it’s something that you risk and you trust your instincts,” said Cruz. “In this case, it wasn’t what I expected. But I’m happy with my decision and happy with where I am now. That’s the only thing that matters.” From the O’s perspective, executive VP Dan Duquette said that the deal was made when Cruz’s camp “adjusted what they were looking for in terms of the term” (i.e. length) of the deal. Cruz if off to a hot start, of course, posting a .294/.369/.596 triple-slash with nine home runs in his first 122 plate appearances with Baltimore.
- A less-consequential decision for the Orioles front office was the low-risk signing of one-time ace Johan Santana, who has been working his way back to full strength on a minor league contract. Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports on Twitter that Santana’s fastball has reached the 88-89 mph range, with his slider in the low-80’s and change in the mid-70’s. While that obviously represents a significant drop from his peak years, Santana posted an average fastball velocity of just 89.6 mph in his 2.98 ERA, 199-inning 2010 season.
- In a chat today, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick touched upon the situation of Yankees starter C.C. Sabathia. A scout recently told Crasnick that Sabathia’s offerings are “very fringy,” and that he will need impeccable control to be effective going forward. On the other hand, Crasnick opines that Sabathia has actually delivered decent value to New York on his massive contract. For what it’s worth, Sabathia’s unsightly 5.75 ERA through his first 40 2/3 innings in 2014 is much worse than his 4.16 FIP, 2.95 xFIP, and 2.92 SIERA marks. Indeed, while Sabathia has been hurt by the long ball (21.9% HR/FB rate) and a .361 BABIP, he is sporting 9.74 K/9 against just 1.99 BB/9 while generating a 50.8% ground-ball rate.