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Baseball Blogs Weigh In: 2008 Amateur Draft

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With last year’s top pick, David Price, making his pro debut yesterday, we are now two weeks from the 2008 "Rule 4 Draft" and the top of the draft is not as clear this time around. There are five candidates that could go in the top slot: Buster Posey, the FSU catcher; Vanderbilt’s third baseman Pedro Alvarez; San Diego lefty Brian Matusz; Southern California high school catcher Kyle Skipworth, and Georgia high school shortstop Tim Beckham. Earlier this week we heard that the Rays were leaning towards Posey or Alvarez, while the Pirates were said to be torn between Alvarez and Beckham with the second pick. Recent mock drafts from Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo, have Beckham going to the Rays with the top pick.

Let’s take a look at what is being said about the upcoming draft in the Blogosphere…

  • Minor League Ball ranks the top 30 prospects, with Posey and Beckham at the top of the board, while Alvarez’ injury knocks him down to #8.
  • Baseball Mastermind would like to see a push for a little more hype in the baseball draft and feels that baseball fans would benefit from more debate on the merits of the available talent. They also can’t see the Rays taking Alvarez with the top pick now that they have Evan Longoria locked up to a long-term deal.
  • DRays Bay wonders if recent reports of the Rays drafting Beckham or Posey were just smoke-screens to lower the price on Alvarez, who is a Scott Boras client.
  • Rays of Light note that Alvarez would be the ideal choice, but believe signability may be too big of a factor to ignore, making Posey more attractive.
  • Bucs Dugout feels a team should select the best available player with the second pick, but suggests that a team like the Pirates, that is still several years away from contending, may be better off drafting high school talent. The idea is that an Alvarez will not help a Bucs club in ’09 or ’10 while a Beckham will remain under the team’s control for more years.
  • Camden Depot doesn’t sound very excited about the prospect of the Orioles drafting Matusz.
  • McCovey Chronicles is hoping that Alvarez falls to the Giants at #5.

Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.

Odds and Ends: Griffey, Baek, German, Wells

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Here’s today’s link collection.

Markakis To Talk Extension After Season?

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The Orioles have been slow to embrace the trend of signing young players long-term to save money.  Granted, they don’t have any obvious extension candidates aside from right fielder Nick Markakis.  Jeremy Guthrie, maybe, but he’s represented by Scott Boras and isn’t a star player.  Seems too early for Adam Jones.  Earlier this month, Buster Olney wrote that the Orioles plan to wait at least three years before talking to Markakis or Jones about extensions.

Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun has a new article up discussing Markakis’ situation.  He notes that Markakis’ agent hasn’t had substantive contract talks with the Orioles, but discussions are expected this winter since he’ll be arbitration-eligible for the ’09 season.  Connolly says the O’s aren’t concerned about saving money during the arb years; they’d be focused on buying out free agent seasons.  So they could definitely continue to wait even as fans get uneasy about Markakis.  Connolly figures Markakis’ salary will jump up to the $2.5-5MM range in ’09.

Connolly suggests Alex Rios might be a good comparable for Markakis.  Rios basically gave up two arb years for $15.6MM and four free agent years for $49MM. 

Indians Prefer Infield Acquisition?

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Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer believes the Indians’ preference to be to acquire an infielder, if they are to explore the trade market.  If so, they might pass on discussing potentially available outfielders such as Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, and Jason Bay.  However, Hoynes notes the Indians’ past interest in Dunn.

Hoynes believes the Brian Roberts rumblings could resurface, perhaps a month or two from now.  Peter Gammons suggested in April that the Orioles’ decent start might cause Peter Angelos to mandate retention of Roberts.

Some other possibly available infielders: Garrett Atkins, Nick Johnson (perhaps six weeks from now), Aubrey Huff, Mark Grudzielanek, Jose Castillo, Cristian Guzman, Felipe Lopez, Melvin Mora, Chad Tracy, and Mark Ellis (once he recovers from a strained hamstring).  It seems easier to acquire an impact outfielder.  Regardless, Hoynes believes the Indians would use their starting pitching surplus to engineer a trade.

Jonathan Mayo Projects The Top Ten Picks

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MLB.com’s Jonathan Mayo admits it’s too early, but still takes a stab at projecting the first ten picks of the June draft.  Here’s what he’s come up with:

1. Rays – Buster Posey, C.
2. Pirates – Pedro Alvarez, 3B.
3. Royals – Eric Hosmer, 1B. 
4. Orioles – Brian Matusz, LHP.
5. Giants – Tim Beckham, SS.
6. Marlins – Kyle Skipworth, C.
7. Reds – Aaron Crow, RHP.
8. White Sox – Gordon Beckham, SS.
9. Nationals – Justin Smoak, 1B.
10. Astros – Tanner Scheppers, RHP.

Interesting note from Mayo: he’s hearing that the Orioles are leaning toward a college player.  Mayo has also heard buzz that the Marlins "have been all over Skipworth."  Read Mayo’s column – it’s a nice blend of inside info and educated guesses.  What do you think about this mock top ten?

Also, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune has some White Sox draft tidbits.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Lidge, Daniel Cabrera, Bonds, Edmonds

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up.  I put the Griffey info in a separate post; let’s discuss the rest.

  • Rosenthal suggests that Brad Lidge would be harder to replace than Pat Burrell, and for that reason the Phillies will make a bigger effort to re-sign him.  I imagine Phillies fans would prefer that course of action.  The problem?  The Phillies have little chance of offering four years, according to Jayson Stark.
  • The Rangers will face a delicate situation in coming years: moving Michael Young to a different position.  The chain reaction could make Hank Blalock available.  Blalock has a club option for ’09 at $6.2MM.
  • Aside from Rick Porcello replacing Kenny Rogers at some point, the questionable Detroit rotation is set and signed through 2010.
  • One scout seems to think Daniel Cabrera has turned the corner and shouldn’t be traded.  He’ll become a free agent after the 2010 season and earns $2.875MM this year.
  • Though it might be seen as a desperation move, the Tigers don’t have much to lose by signing Barry Bonds.  Gary Sheffield endorsed it.
  • Rosenthal says the Rays and Jays are teams with "possible interest" in Jim Edmonds but are likely to pass.  That leaves the Cubs.
  • Will Jason Giambi find a job next year after the Yankees decline his option?  He plans to try.
  • The Red Sox asked about Mark Loretta during Spring Training as "infield insurance."  Rosenthal suggests the Sox consider Omar Vizquel, a defensive upgrade over Julio Lugo.

Odds and Ends: Bay, Roberts, Cliff Lee

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And here we have some random links I’ve collected over the past day or so.

Stark’s Latest: Griffey, Daniel Cabrera, Lidge

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ESPN’s Jayson Stark has a new column up; it’s a must-read.

  • Stark examines the impact of ten deals made last offseason; check it out.
  • Because of last year’s surprise playoff clubs, teams may wait extra long this year before throwing in the towel and trading veterans.
  • As Peter Gammons has noted, Ken Griffey Jr.’s 2009 option will be an impediment in dealing him.  Even if the Reds find a suitor Griffey will probably want that $16.5MM guaranteed for ’09.
  • Daniel Cabrera will be available again this summer.  The Orioles should trade him as soon as possible; the .213 BABIP and 1.62 K/BB ratio indicate that his 3.54 ERA is a fluke.
  • The Royals will have pitching to spare this summer, with guys like Ron Mahay, Jimmy Gobble, and Brett Tomko on the block.  Might make sense to shop Gil Meche, too.
  • The Phillies may want to explore an extension with impending free agent Brad Lidge before season’s end.  Three years might be their max, though.  The extension subject has not yet been broached with Pat Burrell.

Heyman On Teixeira

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Jon Heyman’s latest column does a fine job analyzing Mark Teixeira’s future.  To sum it up:

  • Heyman’s source expects the asking price to be around ten years and $200MM.  Personally, I don’t see him getting a term nearly that long.
  • Heyman and his sources do not see the Braves re-signing Tex.
  • The suitors, in order of likelihood: Yankees, Mets, Orioles, Mariners, Braves, Red Sox, Giants.  A battle of the New York powers is a reasonable prediction – both clubs should have first base open and the market for the position is otherwise poor.
  • In a February MLBTR poll, the Yankees were picked as Tex’s most likely future club.

Rockies Sign Juan Castro

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FRIDAY: The Rockies win the Castro sweepstakes.  Ken Rosenthal notes in a sidebar that the silver lining to the Tulo injury could be Barmes getting a chance to build up trade value.  Rosenthal doesn’t see the Rox pursuing Brian Roberts for second base help unless they battle their way into contention first. 

THURSDAY: Tony Jackson of the L.A. Daily News has been all over the Juan Castro situation.  The 35 year-old shortstop became a free agent today, and four clubs are in pursuit.  The Dodgers, Padres, Orioles, and Rockies are all after him.  Jackson says the Dodgers and Rockies would want him to do a brief Triple A stint.  Troy E. Renck confirms Colorado’s interest.

The Rockies received devastating news today – star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki could be out until July with a torn tendon in his quad.  Clint Barmes will assume the starting shortstop position.

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