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Hudson Has Offer From Braves; Other Teams Interested

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4:57pm: Eight teams have contacted Hudson, tweets David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. The Giants, Red Sox, A's and Rangers have all reached out in addition to the Braves, Indians and Royals.

12:30pm: Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca tweets that close to 10 teams have already expressed interest in Hudson.

12:25pm: Not surprisingly, Tim Hudson won't be receiving a qualifying offer, but the Braves have already extended him a one-year offer to return for the 2014 season, according to Mark Bowman of MLB.com. Bowman doesn't have the financial details of the offer beyond its one-year term, but he notes that the Indians and Royals have both already expressed interest in luring Hudson away from the Braves.

According to Bowman, Indians manager Terry Francona has already had a lengthy phone call with Hudson, and Royals manager Ned Yost plans to contact him later in the week. Hudson and agent Paul Cohen of TWC Sports have yet to make a counter offer to the Braves' proposed one-year pact.

Hudson is set to have a screw removed from his ankle this week — the final step in his recovery from a gruesome fracture suffered in late July when Eric Young stepped on his foot in a close play at first base. Hudson could be throwing off a mound within two weeks of the screw's removal, writes Bowman.

On the Brian McCann front, Bowman lists the Rangers as the early front-runners to sign the longtime Braves backstop as a free agent, though he notes that the Yankees and Red Sox are also expected to be in the mix. As MLBTR's Tim Dierkes confirmed earlier today, McCann will receive a qualifying offer. He's a lock to reject that offer and hit the open market, though.

Napoli, Drew, Ellsbury Receive Qualifying Offers; Saltalamacchia Does Not

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2:10pm: Red Sox general manager Ben Cherington has confirmed to reporters, including Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com, that Napoli, Stephen Drew and Jacoby Ellsbury will receive qualifying offers (Twitter link). Saltalamacchia will not receive a qualifying offer, according to Cherington.

Ellsbury, MLBTR's No. 2 ranked free agent, was a lock to receive and reject a qualifying offer. The other three weren't as certain, but the Red Sox now stand to receive three extra first-round picks if this trio signs elsewhere.

Drew signed a one-year, $9.5MM contract with the Red Sox looking to rebuild his value, and he did just that. The shortstop enjoyed a strong age-30 campaign, batting .255/.333/.443 with 13 homers and playing standout defense at shortsop. He seems likely to pursue a multiyear deal on the free agent market this winter and could be in line for three to four years at an average annual salary north of $10MM.

MLBTR's Tim Dierkes profiled Ellsbury earlier this morning, noting that he's an ownership-level decision that could be signed despite a GM's protest. Tim projected a whopping seven-year, $150MM contract for Ellsbury, expecting agent Scott Boras to be able to convince at least one Major League owner that Ellsbury deserves more than Carl Crawford received three offseasons ago.

9:18am: WEEI.com's Alex Speier agrees with Dierkes' report and adds that Mike Napoli will receive a qualifying offer. Napoli batted .259/.360/.482 with 23 home runs this season, silencing doubts that the avascular necrosis (AVN) discovered in each of his hips last season would lead to an early decline for the slugger. Following a strong season that proved his health, Napoli is a lock to reject that offer and test the market, though he could still re-sign with Boston.

Napoli will be one the premier first basemen and sources of right-handed pop on this year's free agent market, with Dierkes suggesting a three-year, $42MM offer is attainable on the open market. With the qualifying offer attached, any team that selects outside the Top 11 in the 2014 draft will have to forfeit a first-round pick to sign him (the Top 11 would forfeit a second-round selection). In turn, the Red Sox would receive a compensatory pick at the end of the first round.

9:07am: The Red Sox are unlikely to extend a qualifying offer to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes has learned (Twitter link).

Saltalamacchia, 29, posted the best season of his career in 2013, slashing .273/.338/.466 with 14 homers in a career-high 470 plate appearances. He also tied a career best by playing in 121 games for the second consecutive season.

Tim projected a four-year, $36MM contract for Saltalamacchia in free agency this season, although that was under the assumption that he would be tied to draft pick compensation. If Saltalamacchia does not receive a qualifying offer from Boston, he could surpass that projection, as teams would not be required to surrender a first- or second-round draft pick in order to sign him.

Free Agent Profile: Jacoby Ellsbury

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A healthy 2013 season went a long way toward restoring Jacoby Ellsbury's free agent value.  He bounced back from a lost 2012 season to re-establish himself as one of the game's elite leadoff men and center fielders, and agent Scott Boras surely expects a contract well north of $100MM.

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Strengths/Pros

Ellsbury is known for his blazing speed, and he led all of baseball with 52 stolen bases this year.  He previously picked up the American League stolen base crown in '08 and topped MLB in '09.  He has a strong career stolen base success rate of 84%, and was up near 93% this year.  FanGraphs' baserunning stat, which includes steals and a bunch of other baserunning skills, suggests Ellsbury was worth 11.4 runs on the basepaths this year.  That figure was the best in baseball.

To make an impact on the bases, a player needs first to reach base, and Ellsbury does well there with a .350 career OBP.  He has a high contact rate and a .297 career batting average, and draws enough walks to supplement his hits.  

Ellsbury also has more pop than the typical center fielder, with a career slugging percentage of .439 and isolated power of .141.  While his power is more of the doubles and triples variety, which is aided by his speed, he did hit 32 home runs in 2011.  As Baseball HQ likes to say, once you display a skill, you own it, so it's fair to say Ellsbury has the potential for double digit home runs.  

That 2011 season looks amazing on a resume, as Ellsbury led all of baseball with 9.1 wins above replacement.  He finished second in the AL MVP voting, won a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove, and made the All-Star team.

Defense is another strong suit for Ellsbury.  He won a Gold Glove in 2011 and has consistently posted above average UZR and DRS numbers in center field.  Ellsbury adds value in every conceivable way.

This year FanGraphs had him at 5.8 wins above replacement, a level of production a team might value at $30MM or more.  Ellsbury's WAR ranked second only to Robinson Cano among free agents.  Ellsbury will play next year at age 30, which is considered young for a free agent.

Weaknesses/Cons

Ellsbury already has lost two seasons to injury in his career.  He played only 18 games in 2010, fracturing multiple ribs after colliding with Adrian Beltre in April.  Two years later, he collided with Reid Brignac while sliding into second base and ended up playing only 74 games due to a shoulder injury.  "Jacoby Ellsbury is a very durable player. He just has to make sure that people don’t run into him," Boras told reporters in July.  There may be an element of truth to that, but most people in the game would not use the word "durable" to describe Ellsbury.  Ellsbury didn't run into anyone this year, but he was still limited to 134 games due to a groin injury, a sore wrist, and a compression fracture in his right foot.  He was on the field for the postseason, playing in all 16 games despite a nagging hand injury first reported by Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.

There is a belief around baseball that speed doesn't age well, and Ellsbury's game could suffer if he loses a step.  While Ellsbury is not as reliant on infield hits as he used to be, they still comprised about 14% of his total this year, according to Baseball-Reference.  His 7.4% walk rate this year, while a career best, is nothing special.  Ellsbury's OBP could come down as he loses speed, more so than with the average player.  And of course, speed is a big factor in center field defense.

A left-handed batter, Ellsbury wasn't much of a threat against southpaws this year, posting a .246/.323/.318 line in 237 plate appearances.

Ellsbury is a lock to receive and turn down a qualifying offer from the Red Sox, so signing him will require a team to forfeit its highest available pick in the 2014 draft.

Personal

Ellsbury was born and raised in Madras, Oregon, and the town threw a parade for him in 2007.  He met his future wife Kelsey while they were attending college at Oregon State.  According to the Red Sox media guide, Ellsbury is believed to be the first Native American of Navajo descent to play in MLB, and he's proud of his heritage.  This year he conducted the Second Annual N7 Jacoby Ellsbury Baseball Camp at the Salt River Fields at Talking Stick in January, with 130 kids in attendance.

Ellsbury loves basketball and played in high school, along with football and of course baseball.  He played on travel teams and became friends with current Athletics infielder Jed Lowrie.  The two players were drafted 22 picks apart in 2005 and were teammates for many years in the minors and Majors. 

Market

The Red Sox have made efforts to sign Ellsbury in the past, and will at least have conversations with Boras.  Otherwise, any team with some payroll space that doesn't have an elite center fielder in place will be approached, including the Rangers, Mariners, Yankees, Mets, Phillies, Nationals, and Cubs.  I'd throw the Tigers in that mix, but that could be tricky for Boras since center fielder Austin Jackson is another one of his clients.

Ellsbury is an ownership level discussion, and Boras has those connections, so it doesn't necessarily matter if the GM approves.

Expected Contract

In September, Boras explained at length to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports why Ellsbury is better than fellow speedy outfielder Carl Crawford.  Boras generally has huge expectations for contracts for his elite free agents, and I think he expects to top Crawford's seven-year, $142MM contract from three years ago.  Boras has secured eight, nine, and ten-year deals before, and he's probably thinking eight or nine years for Ellsbury as a starting point.  I think there's a chance a team springs for eight, especially if that knocks down the average annual value a bit.  Crawford fell short of $21MM a year, and I think Boras can get $20-23MM per year for Ellsbury.  Ultimately, I predict a seven-year, $150MM deal.  

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Lester, Granderson, Feldman

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The Red Sox recipe for a championship has been discussed extensively, ever since it became clear that the team was going to be a real contender. But how does it work as a model for other teams? The New York Post's Joel Sherman, for one, thinks it was a one-time stroke. (He compares the lasting power of GM Ben Cherington's mid-tier free agent binge unfavorably to that of the Macarena.) As Sherman well explains, the circumstances for Boston's worst-to-first turnaround are fairly unique, including the Sox' preexisting talent base and nigh-unbelievable success rate in its free agent signings. While teams are likely to have taken account of the lessons that Cherington taught in occupying the market's midsection, says Sherman, no single one can replicate it. And teams will find their dollars won't go quite as far as did Boston's last time around. More from the American League East:

  • Boston had an offer on the table from the Royals that would have sent Jon Lester to KC in exchange for Wil Myers, reports the Boston Herald's Scott Lauber. When the Sox asked for time to think, Kansas City instead used Myers to bring back James Shields from the Rays. Lauber says that the Red Sox are lucky not to have acted on that tempting trade offer, arguing that Lester has turned into an "undisputed ace." While there is no question that Lester played a critical role in the team's World Series run, that characterization might be subject to some debate — Lester was tied with Jhoulys Chacin for 16th in fWAR among qualified starters this year, but ranked 52nd in ERA and 41st in FIP. 
  • On the other hand, Lester is eighth among starters in cumulative fWAR since 2008, making clear that he has been both excellent and durable. Lauber goes on to weight a possible new contract for the sturdy lefty. He points to two possible comparables: the five-year, $85MM deal signed by Jered Weaver of the Angels, and the six-year, $144MM pact handed Cole Hamels. According to Lauber, the Sox should be interested in an extension — in spite of their prospect depth — if they can get Lester for something more like the lesser of those two deals.
  • The Yankees have yet to decide whether to issue outfielder Curtis Granderson a qualifying offer, reports Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. Perhaps hoping to deter just that possibility, Granderson's agent Matt Brown said that "there's definitely a possibility" that his client would accept an offer. Of course, he also emphasized that Granderson remains "a pretty elite guy" who will be sought after on the free agent market. MLBTR's Steve Adams predicts that the market will value him in the three-year, $45MM range. A qualifying offer, and subsequent rejection of same, still seems the likeliest scenario.
  • Orioles GM Dan Duquette may have a lot of free agents clearing the books, but that doesn't mean he'll be rushing to act on most of them, says the Baltimore Sun's Dan Connolly. Mid-season starter acquisition Scott Feldman is the top target among them for a Baltimore club that does not figure to flash too much cash on the market, Connolly explains, but the O's aren't likely to go past two years for him. 

Cafardo On Free Agency, Price, Nathan, Lackey

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Free agents are not allowed to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs until 11:01 pm (CT) Monday, but agent Scott Boras says his phone was ringing off the hook regarding Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew within hours of the Red Sox winning the World Series, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The Yankees will be the most interesting team during free agency, according to Cafardo, but will be hamstrung until a decision is made on Alex Rodriguez's appeal. Cafardo also lists the Phillies, Tigers, Giants, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rangers as active participants in the free agent market. In other tidbits from his Sunday Baseball Notes column:

Managerial Notes: Ausmus, Cubs, Lovullo, Mariners

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The Tigers officially announced Brad Ausmus as the 37th manager in franchise history during a press conference today. Ausmus, who agreed to a three-year contract with a club option for 2017, confirmed Gene Lamont will return as bench coach and would have been his first choice even if he wasn't already on staff. Lamont, who signed a two-year deal to stay in Detroit, has ties to Ausmus as he coached him during his playing days with the Astros. Tigers President/CEO/GM Dave Dombrowski downplayed Ausmus' lack of managerial experience saying he "was born to manage" and cited Joe Torre and Dusty Baker as examples of skippers who succeeded without previous managerial experience. Dombrowski also acknowledged he wanted to interview former Reds shortstop Barry Larkin, but the Michigan alum declined. In other news on the managerial search front:

  • The Cubs had been vetting Ausmus for weeks but decided they needed an experienced teacher, tweets David Kaplan of WGN Radio and CSNChicago.com.
  • In a second tweet, Kaplan reports Padres bench Rick Renteria is the front runner but the team is considering interviewing Red Sox bench coach Torey Lovullo.
  • The Cubs will indeed interview Lovullo, most likely early this week, tweets FOXSports.com's Ken Rosenthal.
  • No team, including the Cubs, has formally requested permission from the Red Sox to interview Lovullo or any coach on their Major League staff for a managerial position, a source tells Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (via Twitter).
  • The Mariners are beginning the second round of interviews this weekend with former Mariner Joey Cora one of the finalists, according to MLB.com's Greg Johns. Tigers hitting coach Lloyd McClendon will also be one of those second interviews, a source told Johns in a second report. A's bench coach Chip Hale will receive a second interview, as well, and the Mariners hope to have a new manager in place by the end of the week, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Besides Cora, McClendon, and Hale, five others are known to have interviewed with GM Jack Zduriencik: Ausmus, Renteria, Giants bench coach Ron Wotus, Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach, and ex-Mariner catcher and current broadcaster Dave Valle.

AL East Links: Price, Lester, Papi, Orioles

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Timing will be the trickiest issue of the offseason for Rays, GM Andrew Friedman tells Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Even if Friedman has an early opportunity to address first base (e.g. re-signing James Loney) or left field, he will have to keep the possibility of a David Price trade in the back of his mind. Acting too quickly to fill either hole could cause the team to miss out on a superior, more permanent option at the position that could be filled in a potential Price trade. Says Friedman: "We have to utilize all the information we have accumulated to that point to make the best decision possible while also appreciating the trickle-down effect of each move." Here's more from the AL East…

  • Jon Lester told reporters, including WEEI.com's Alex Speier, that he's excited to be returning to the Red Sox for another year after having his option picked up but hopes that he can work out a long-term deal with the team. Lester is currently more focused on celebrating Boston's 2013 World Series victory, but said "Hopefully [next year is] not the only one and we can be here for a long time."
  • David Ortiz is still producing at a virtually ageless clip, writes Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald in arguing that the Red Sox should extend their DH. Big Papi is signed through 2014, but his potent bat and status as face of the franchise should earn him a lengthier guarantee, opines Silverman.
  • The Orioles must decide if they wish to protect left-handers Chris Jones and Tim Berry as well as catcher Michael Ohman from the Rule 5 Draft by adding them to their 40-man roster, says Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. Connolly also points out the potential fit between the O's and Mark Ellis, should Brian Roberts not be re-signed. There's still some mutual interest between Baltimore and Roberts, Connolly reports.

Red Sox Decline Matt Thornton’s Option

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The Red Sox have declined their $6MM club option on left-hander Matt Thornton, the team announced. Thornton, who was acquired from the White Sox in early July in exchange for outfield prospect Brandon Jacobs, will receive a $1MM buyout and hit the free agent market.

Thornton, 37, pitched to a 3.52 ERA in 15 1/3 innings with the Red Sox following the trade and posted a 3.74 ERA overall in 43 1/3 innings between his two teams. The flamethrower's velocity has begun to drop in recent seasons; he averaged 96.1 mph on his heater in 2010, 95.8 mph in 2011, 95.0 mph in 2012 and 94.2 mph in 2013. It's not a big surprise to see that along with his velocity, Thornton's once sky-high strikeout rate has dipped. Thornton posted a 12.0 K/9 in 2010, 9.5 in 2011, 7.3 in 2012 and 6.2 in 2013.

Despite the dip in velocity, Thornton was solid against left-handed opponents, holding them to a .235/.267/.370 batting line in 89 appearances. He'll join a strong free agent crop of lefty relievers that includes Javier Lopez, J.P. Howell, Boone Logan and Tommy John reclamation project Eric O'Flaherty.

Red Sox Exercise 2014 Option On Jon Lester

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NOV. 1, 5:10pm: The Red Sox have officially announced the exercise of the option, by way of a team press release.

NOV. 1, 4:32pm: WEEI.com's Rob Bradford tweets that the Red Sox have now officially picked up Lester's option. 

SEPT. 9, 11:11pm: The Red Sox are "all but certain" to pick up Lester's option, MLB.com's Ian Browne writes. But Browne also reports that the team won't lock itself into that decision until after the season is over.

9:09pm: The Red Sox have agreed to pick up their $13MM 2014 option on starting pitcher Jon Lester, Anthony Witrado, formerly of the Sporting News, tweets. The option comes at the end of a five-year, $30MM deal that covered the 2009 through 2013 seasons. Lester is guaranteed a $250K buyout if Boston does not pick up his option.

Lester has a 3.86 ERA with 7.5 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 193 1/3 innings in 2013. Those aren't Cy Young-type numbers, but the decision to pick up Lester's option still looks like it should be an easy one for the Red Sox, since Lester is relatively young (29) and fairly consistent from year to year. (He posted a 4.82 ERA in 2012, but his peripherals were very consistent with those of years past.) Lester has posted a WAR north of 3.0 in all of the last six seasons and appears to be a good bet to do it again in 2014, meaning he's easily worth what is essentially a one-year, $12.75MM contract.

Steve Adams and Jeff Todd contributed to the post.

AL Notes: Nathan, Yankees, Red Sox, Tigers

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Joe Nathan wants to continue pitching for the Rangers, but he understands it might not be possible if he wants a two-year deal, Richard Durrett of ESPNDallas.com reports. "I know they have a surplus of arms in the bullpen and I know the business side of it," says Nathan. "You’re trying to get as much money as you can to strengthen your club, so they may want to spend that money somewhere else. They have some work to do to piece some holes together." The Rangers have a one-year, $9MM team option on Nathan, although Nathan has the right to void it; even that might not be the best use of resources for the Rangers, who will be trying to address a variety of needs (catchers and the outfield, in particular) with a limited budget. Here are more notes from around the big leagues.

  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman says he will congratulate Red Sox GM Ben Cherington at the Winter Meetings in December, Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News reports. Cashman says he texted Cherington before the World Series, adding, "I was rooting for them and thought they were the team to beat." Cashman notes, however, that the stress of the offseason means that Cherington won't have much time to enjoy his organization's accomplishment. "As GM, you don’t have time to enjoy it long," says Cashman. "The work starts again right away."
  • The Tigers interviewed Padres bench coach Rick Renteria for their manager position today, writes John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press. CBS Sports' Jon Heyman reported earlier this week that Renteria would interview. Renteria worked in the Marlins system when current Tigers GM Dave Dombrowski was GM there. The Tigers have also interviewed their own hitting coach, Lloyd McClendon, along with Dodgers third base coach Tim Wallach and Padres executive Brad Ausmus.
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