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Red Sox Shopping Andrew Miller; Pirates, Braves Interested

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The Red Sox are willing to move southpaw reliever Andrew Miller in a trade, according to multiple reports. Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review (via Twitter) says that Boston is shopping the lefty, adding that the Pirates have been scouting the club for weeks and have interest in Miller. Likewise, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution hears (Twitter link) that Miller is available and reiterates that the Braves are still on him, with Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reporting that Miller is Atlanta’s “prime bullpen target.”

Miller, 29, could well be the most impactful late-inning lefty available, as I noted yesterday in a breakdown of the left-handed relief market. He owns stellar peripherals (14.5 K/9 vs. 2.8 BB/9, 51.9% groundball rate) to go along with excellent results (2.31 ERA). Unsurprisingly, ERA estimators are also a fan: Miller sports a 1.77 FIP, 1.82 xFIP, and 1.47 SIERA.

This is undoubtedly Miller’s finest season, as he has only once sported an ERA of below three earned per nine (last year) and struggled earlier in his career, when he was use a starter. But his results have steadily improved since he shifted to the pen, and Miller has plenty of value to a contending team that does not want to take on long-term commitments. He is earning just $1.9MM this year and will hit the open market following the end of the season.

Red Sox Notes: Lester, Gomes, Pirates, Henry, Carp

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Here’s the latest out of Fenway:

  • Boston has fielded interest in Jon Lester from the Dodgers, reports Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. The sides have not made much headway, however. Los Angeles has long been said to be chasing another starter, and appear to have the kind of top-end prospects that would greatly entice the Sox (if they are willing to part with them).
  • The Royals have watched outfielder Jonny Gomes all week as they look for a right-handed hitting corner outfield bat, says Edes. Meanwhile, as Edes reports in another piece, the Pirates are among the clubs taking a close look at the Boston pen. As he notes, and as our trade market pieces (righties; lefties) reflect, Boston has many potentially available arms.
  • The Red Sox are taking a pragmatic approach at the deadline, principal owner John Henry tells Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald. “Deals are always driven by value,” said Henry. “The value of this season is quickly declining in comparison to next year and beyond.” Henry said that the club’s poor offense has been “painfully evident,” noting that, “even running the bases, as measured by external stat geeks, we’ve been the worst in the league.” Though GM Ben Cherington advised Henry before the All-Star break that the club was still likely the best in the division, in spite of its poor record, the front office began preparing then for the possibility of hitting the trade deadline without a realistic shot at contention.
  • Mike Carp explained (and confirmed) his reported request for a trade, as WEEI.com’s Alex Speier reports. Though his batting line has been poor, his playing time has also been rather sporadic. “It hasn’t been a shocker. I’ve been very blatant where I stand from the get-go about it,” Carp explained. “I need the opportunity to play. I need the opportunity to get some at-bats. There really hasn’t been an attempt made here and I just feel like there would be a better situation at this point.”
  • In assessing whether to deal Lester, the Red Sox should take heed of the Yankees’ decision not to trade Robinson Cano last year, writes Joel Sherman of the New York Post. The situations bear many similarities, Sherman, explains, and it would be a mistake for Boston to let one of its homegrown core players leave with only a compensatory draft pick to show for it. Lester’s could bring back quite a nice haul, leading Sherman to suggest the club ought to deal him unless it is determined to re-sign or extend him. In a similar vein, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports opined yesterday that dealing Lester makes eminent sense if the team is not committed to bringing him back.
  • Trading Lester, I would suggest, could make it somewhat more palatable to later sign him to a market-rate contract. If he could bring back a legitimate prospect haul that has some promise of near-term big league impact, it would not only increase the value of paying for a top-end arm but would offset to some extent the expected negative value of the later years of a hypothetical Lester contract. In some ways, that could be the best scenario for all involved, and Lester has said he is amenable to re-signing if he is dealt. It is certainly true that such an option sometimes appears more achievable than it may truly be, and anything can happen once a team moves a player off its roster. But perhaps that is something to keep an eye on in Lester’s case.

Red Sox Notes: Webster, Cherington, Lester, Relievers

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The Red Sox have enviable pitching depth in the minors, writes Alex Speier of WEEI. In addition to Rubby de la Rosa, who is already with the club, Brandon Workman, Steven Wright, and Anthony Ranaudo could all be viewed as viable candidates to fill Jake Peavy’s spot in the rotation. But the Sox will turn to yet another option tomorrow against the Rays – Allen Webster.

  • GM Ben Cherington told reporters, including Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald, that the club “would listen to what teams are looking to do.” Said Cherington, “anything we do between now and Thursday afternoon will be with a mind toward building as quickly as possible for April of 2015.”
  • Boston should take advantage of a seller’s market and deal Lester, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. If the club is hesitant about extending Lester – and they appear to be – then the Sox will get a lot more back via trade than they would with a qualifying offer. As Rosenthal notes, the club may qualify for a protected pick, and Lester has left the door open for re-signing even if he’s dealt. Cherington did say they want Lester in the 2015 rotation, according to Speier (twitter link).
  • The Pirates are among the clubs scouting Red Sox relievers, reports Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston. All seven Sox relievers have been mentioned as trade candidates, so it’s difficult to guess which player(s) most interest the Pirates.

Mike Carp Requests Trade

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1B/OF Mike Carp has requested to the Red Sox that they trade him, Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe tweets. Abraham notes that Carp spoke to the Red Sox soon after the All-Star break, but the news of that discussion arrives just after the last-place Sox began trading veterans by sending Jake Peavy to the Giants.

Carp has hit poorly in limited opportunities this season, batting .215/.337/.304 in 95 plate appearances. Mike Napoli has hit well for the Sox at first base, but no one in the outfield has hit much, and the Red Sox still haven’t found much playing time for Carp. A contender could see Carp as an interesting buy-low bench candidate, but his trade value surely is limited at this point. He had a breakout season in 2013, hitting .296/.362/.523 in a part-time role.

Red Sox Becoming Increasingly Willing To Deal

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The Red Sox are becoming increasingly likely to consider other trades, ESPN Boston’s Gordon Edes reports. The big factor in the Red Sox’ willingness to deal is not the recent trade of Jake Peavy to the Giants, which was likely regardless, but rather the team’s recent slide. The Red Sox have lost four in a row and are now 10 1/2 games back in the AL East.

The Dodgers have touched base with the Red Sox regarding Jon Lester, Edes writes, although those talks have not yet gone very far. Also, the Royals are keeping their eyes on outfielder Jonny Gomes. Left-handed reliever Andrew Miller has also attracted plenty of interested teams. He’s due to become a free agent this offseason, but the Red Sox have not had discussions with him about an extension.

Reactions To The Jake Peavy Trade

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Here’s a quick roundup of reactions to today’s trade of Jake Peavy and cash to the Giants for pitching prospects Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree.

  • The Giants’ decision to trade Escobar is surprising, but it might be a little bit like the Giants’ 2009 deal of top pitching prospect Tim Alderson for infielder Freddy Sanchez, McCovey Chronicles’ Grant Brisbee writes. Alderson was highly regarded at the time, but there were warning signs then, and he never panned out. Still, though, the Giants at least knew what they were getting with Sanchez, and that’s not the case with Peavy, Brisbee writes.
  • The Red Sox’ return was a strong one for Peavy, Dave Cameron of Fangraphs tweets, and it could be an indication that better pitchers will fetch a very nice return in this market. Many analysts seem to share Cameron’s basic take that the deal was good for the Red Sox — MLB.com’s Jim Callis, for example, tweets that the Red Sox got more than he expected them to.
  • ESPN’s Keith Law (Insider-only), however, writes that Peavy is a great fit for the Giants, noting that they need the help and that Peavy’s skill set will play better in the National League and in San Francisco’s home park. Law calls Escobar a “fringy starter prospect” and writes that Escobar’s changeup currently makes him vulnerable against righties.
  • FanGraphs’ Tony Blengino calls the deal a win-win, noting that the change in ballparks should help Peavy, a fly-ball pitcher who wasn’t built for Fenway.

Giants Acquire Jake Peavy

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USATSI_7974100_154513410_lowresThe Giants have acquired Jake Peavy from the Red Sox, CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweets. The Red Sox will receive pitching prospects Edwin Escobar and Heath Hembree, ESPN’s Buster Olney tweets. The Giants will pay $2MM of what’s left on Peavy’s contract, ESPN’s Jim Bowden tweets.

The trade reunites Peavy with Bruce Bochy, who managed him with the Padres. The deal also provides the Giants with valuable starting pitching depth, which they needed, given Matt Cain’s injury. The Red Sox, meanwhile, add prospect depth while clearing space for younger starting pitchers like Brandon Workman and Allen Webster.

Peavy is making $14.5MM in his final season before free agency. (His contract indicates that he can receive a player option for 2015, but he will not be able to pitch enough innings to attain it.) In 124 innings this season, has a 4.72 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9.

Escobar and Hembree appear to constitute a strong return for Boston. The lefty Escobar, 22, has pitched the entire season with Triple-A Fresno, posting a 5.11 ERA with 7.8 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9. He had a very strong 2013 season at Class A+ and Double-A. MLB.com ranked him the Giants’ No. 2 prospect and the No. 75 prospect in all of baseball, noting that he could become a middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Hembree, 25, has spent most of the 2014 season with Fresno, where he’s posted a 3.89 ERA with 10.5 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 39 1/3 innings of relief. He appeared in nine games in the big leagues in 2013. MLB.com ranked him the 11th-best prospect in the Giants’ system, noting that he has long been regarded as a potential closer. Both Escobar and Hembree were on the Giants’ 40-man roster, although the Red Sox had a 40-man spot open before the trade, so they didn’t need to make any further moves to add both.

Heyman tweeted that the Red Sox would acquire minor league pitchers in return, with WEEI.com’s Alex Speier tweeting that the Red Sox would get one righty and one lefty. Jen Royle of the Boston Herald tweeted this morning that Boston was close to trading Peavy to an NL team, and FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal tweeted that the Red Sox and Giants were in serious discussions. CSNBayArea.com’s Andrew Baggarly reported that the Giants would receive cash in the deal.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Giants, Red Sox Near Jake Peavy Deal

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10:06am: The Red Sox are “close” to trading Peavy to the Giants, Rosenthal and Jon Morosi report (via Twitter), although there are still details to be ironed out before the deal is done.

9:58am: Yesterday, the Red Sox and Giants were in the midst of serious talks regarding Peavy, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports tweets. The Giants don’t have much starting pitching depth right now and currently have Yusmeiro Petit in the rotation in place of the injured Matt Cain. Also, Peavy and Giants manager Bruce Bochy worked together when they both were with the Padres.

9:33am: The Red Sox are “close” to trading starting pitcher Jake Peavy to an unknown National League team, Jen Royle of the Boston Herald tweets. (She notes, however, that “[l]ots of things need to happens before this gets done.”) That NL team is not the Cardinals, who have lately been connected to Peavy. (The Red Sox had reportedly been scouting the Cardinals’ system in case Peavy trade discussions advanced.) The Braves have also reportedly been involved in Peavy trade talks, and Royle guesses that the Giants or Brewers could also be possibilities.

Peavy has a 4.72 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 124 innings this season. He is making $14.5MM this season before heading to free agency this winter.

Jon Lester Willing To Return To Red Sox If Traded

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Free-agent-to-be Jon Lester would be willing to re-sign with the Red Sox in the offseason even if they traded him in the coming week, Gordon Edes of ESPN Boston writes. “I mean, this is what I know, this is what I love,” says Lester. “Like I’ve said many times, this is where I want to be. If they trade me, I completely understand.”

Edes notes that 17 or more teams watched Lester and the Red Sox face off against David Price and the Rays Friday night. Both Lester and Price are potential trade candidates.

Lester and the Red Sox had discussed an extension in spring training, but the Red Sox’ offer of four years and $70MM seemed to be quite low. Since then, Lester said that he does not want to discuss an extension during the season (although reports haven’t been entirely consistent regarding Lester’s position on in-season negotiations). The Red Sox, meanwhile, have characterized the $70MM offer as merely an “opening offer” to begin negotiations.

If the Red Sox were to trade Lester and then seek to re-sign him, his resulting ineligibility for the qualifying offer would change the dynamics of potential negotiations with other clubs. If the Red Sox keep Lester this season, they can then extend him a qualifying offer, which he would, obviously, be extremely likely to refuse. While the qualifying offer would be highly unlikely to derail the market for Lester in the way it did for Kendrys Morales, Stephen Drew, Nelson Cruz and Ervin Santana last offseason, it would be a factor for other teams negotiating with him, since they would have to consider the lost value of a draft pick.

East Notes: Price, Lester, Howard, Papelbon, Mets, Braves

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All eyes were on Tampa, where David Price of the Rays and Jon Lester of the Red Sox are squared off in a match-up of top starting pitchers — and top potential trade pieces. And that includes many top scouts around the game, as several reports suggest. At least 17 clubs had eyes in the stands, tweets Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com. That includes two each for the Royals, Giants, and Pirates. A scout from the Phillies was also on hand — according to a tweet from Sean McAdam of CSNNE.com, he is the club’s top evaluator — though presumably not for the two starters. Other teams with “top evaluators” watching, presumably with a variety of possible motives, included the Braves, Orioles, Mariners, Cubs, and Nationals, says Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (Twitter link). Of course, it remains to be seen whether either of the two lefties is shopped, but the ramifications of the decisions of their respective clubs will obviously be widespread.

Here’s more from the game’s eastern divisions:

  • In comments after the game, Lester said that he is “aware of what’s coming next week,” referring to the possibility of deals, reports Jason Mastrodonato of MassLive.com (via Twitter). If he does end up being shipped out, Lester said that he would still be open to re-signing with the team as a free agent.
  • The Red Sox-Lester situation remains a complicated one, as Rob Bradford of WEEI.com explains. Boston’s decision-makers have clearly put out the word through the press that the club wanted to re-start extension negotiations, but were told that was not Lester’s preference. Meanwhile, sources tell Bradford that Lester’s camp would be willing to talk if the Sox came in with a realistic starting point. The underlying tension appears to be the basis for the notion that the fading club could consider dealing its best arm. If that does not happen, Bradford suggests that the team may intend to pursue a strategy it has employed in the past: make a larger offer after evaluating things in the offseason that falls shy of other open-market bids, banking on the player desiring to continue playing in Boston.
  • Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. expanded on his comments regarding first baseman Ryan Howard, as Todd Zolecki of MLBcom reports on Twitter. “I fully expect him to be our first baseman next year,” said Amaro.
  • Meanwhile, the Phillies have told teams that they are willing to hold on to some of the $18MM still owed to closer Jonathan Papelbon, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. While there is still some market for Papelbon, Heyman says it does not look strong. His $13MM vesting clause for 2016, in particular, is a looming threat that would seem to complicate any deal.
  • The Mets are not engaged in any “substantive talks” at present, reports Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter). Of course, as Rubin notes, that does not mean that chatter won’t pick up in the coming days.
  • There were two injury updates today for the Braves, both via Joe Morgan of MLB.com. Southpaw Jonny Venters is making progress and is expected to begin throwing bullpen sessions soon. It still seems that he is a ways off, however, and manager Fredi Gonzalez made clear that the club is not yet counting on a return this season. Meanwhile, starter Gavin Floyd is also moving forward in his recovery from a fracture in his elbow, but Gonzalez says he will not even be evaluated again for a month. Needless to say, Atlanta does not seem destined to receive a surprise, late-season comeback from Floyd, who will be a free agent after the season.
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