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Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Forfeit By Signing A Qualified Free Agent

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As part of the new collective bargaining agreement, MLB and the MLBPA allowed for the creation of an international amateur draft.  As this was something MLB was pushing for, the proposed tradeoff was the elimination of free agent compensation.  The two sides reached their overall CBA in March, but included a July 25th deadline for the possible international draft/free agent compensation trade.  The two sides failed to reach an agreement by that July deadline, so the qualifying offer system for free agent compensation that was agreed to 11 years ago remains in place.

The qualifying offer is set at $19.65MM this offseason, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO.  Certain star free agents, including Aaron Judge and Trea Turner, are locks to receive and turn down a qualifying offer.  A dozen others could easily join them.

If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres

If any of these six teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2023 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM.

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Rays

These 14 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty.  The Twins and Mariners are realistic possibilities to sign a qualified free agent, while the Orioles and a few other revenue sharing recipients may lurk as dark horses.

All Other Teams: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals

These 10 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground.

What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.

Red Sox Sign Catching Instructor Jason Varitek To Extension, Expected To Retain Coaching Staff

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The Red Sox have agreed to a three-year contract extension with catching instructor/game-planning coordinator Jason Varitek, his wife Catherine announced this morning (Twitter link). Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports that Varitek will return in the same capacity for 2023; more broadly, Speier notes the entire coaching staff is expected back next season.

That’s not especially surprising, as manager Alex Cora announced immediately after the season ended he hoped to retain his staff. It seemed the biggest question was whether bench coach Will Venable might depart for greener pastures. Venable has long been viewed as a viable managerial candidate, and he indeed drew some attention for the Royals job that eventually went to former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro. With all the managerial vacancies now filled and no anticipated further turnover this offseason — Astros skipper Dusty Baker is on an expiring contract but expected to re-sign with Houston — Venable seems headed for a third season as bench coach.

Varitek, a 15-year MLB veteran who spent his entire big league career in Boston, was a three-time All-Star during his playing days. He retired after the 2011 campaign but has remained in the organization in various non-playing capacities. That includes his time on the coaching staff as game planning coordinator, which he first assumed over the 2020-21 offseason.

It’ll be Cora’s third consecutive season managing in Boston and his fifth overall. Aside from Venable, his top returning staffers will be second-year hitting coach Peter Fatse and fourth-year pitching coach Dave Bush.

Chris Sale Will Not Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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In one of the least-surprising opt-out decisions in recent memory, left-hander Chris Sale has informed the Red Sox that he will not exercise the opt-out clause in his five-year, $145MM contract, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom tells Alex Speier of the Boston Globe.

There’s never been any real thought that Sale was a candidate to opt out of the remaining two years and $55MM on that ill-fated extension. He pitched just 5 2/3 innings with the Sox this season and, over the first three years of the agreement, has tallied just 48 1/3 innings through 11 starts. Sale underwent Tommy John surgery in March of 2020 and thus missed the entirety of that year’s truncated season.

The recovery from that Tommy John procedure sidelined him into August of 2021, and his 2022 season was derailed by a series of bizarre injuries; Sale was shelved for the beginning of the 2022 season due to a stress reaction in his ribcage, and he suffered a broken pinkie finger upon being hit by a comebacker shortly after returning. The Red Sox announced in early August that Sale had fractured his wrist in a bicycle accident and would miss the remainder of the season.

It’s been a nightmare start to the contract extension for the Red Sox, although this year’s slate of injuries, in particular, seem fluky in nature. To Sale’s credit, in the small amount of time he’s been healthy enough to take the mound during the first three years of the extension, he’s been excellent. In those 48 1/3 innings, Sale owns a 3.17 ERA with a strong 27.4%% strikeout rate against a tidy 6.3% walk rate. Inning-for-inning, that’s largely the type of performance the Sox were hoping for — but Sale’s body has not held up.

Looking ahead, the Sox have little choice but to hope Sale can get healthy and finally reclaim a spot near the front of their rotation. The lefty’s contract has zero trade value at present, and even if it did, Sale has full veto power over any potential trade by virtue of his 10-and-5 rights (ten years of Major League service time, including at least the past five with the same team).

The 33-year-old Sale (34 in March) is but one of many question marks for the Boston rotation. Nick Pivetta is the only largely established starting option for the Sox heading into 2023. Top prospect Brayan Bello could vie for a spot but didn’t quite seize one in this year’s rookie effort (57 1/3 innings, 4.71 ERA — albeit with better secondary marks). Righty Garrett Whitlock has obvious rotation potential but has thus far been shuttled between the starting staff and the bullpen. Fellow righties Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski and Connor Seabold were all hit hard as rookies in 2022.

Suffice it to say, with Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill all set to become free agents and Sale more or less a complete question mark, starting pitching will be one of the main focuses for the Red Sox this offseason. It won’t be their sole pursuit, however, as the Sox also potentially stand to lose Xander Bogaerts to free agency and still hope to extend slugger Rafael Devers, who is set to reach the open market following the 2023 campaign.

Including Sale’s weighty salary, the Sox have $86.72MM committed to next year’s books, although that’s counting a $20MM salary for Bogaerts, who is certain to opt out of his contract’s final three seasons. Boston also has nearly $40MM in projected arbitration salaries and is on the hook for some hefty contractual buyouts — most notably the $8MM yet owed to the since-released Jackie Bradley Jr. They’ll quite possibly be on the hook for James Paxton’s $4MM player option, which he’ll have the ability to exercise once the Sox make the easy call to decline his two-year, $26MM club option.

Tyler Danish Elects Free Agency

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The Red Sox announced that reliever Tyler Danish has elected minor league free agency. Boston had evidently placed the right-hander on waivers in recent days, freeing up a spot on the 40-man roster.

Danish spent a year in Boston. A former second round pick of the White Sox, he signed a minor league contract with the Red Sox in Spring Training and cracked the 40-man roster before Opening Day. Boston didn’t immediately carry him on the big league club but he pitched his way to the majors by the middle of April. It marked his first big league action in four years, as he’d kicked around the upper minors without landing an MLB opportunity from 2019-21.

The 2022 campaign was by far Danish’s longest look against big league competition. Manager Alex Cora called upon him 32 times, giving him 40 1/3 innings out of the bullpen. He pitched to a 5.13 ERA, striking out only 18.5% of opponents on a modest 7.4% swinging strike rate. He did show the best control of his career, walking only 6.9% of opposing hitters, but his lack of missed bats and a higher than average seven home runs against (1.56 HR/9) push him off the roster.

Danish isn’t a particularly hard thrower, averaging just under 91 MPH on his sinker. He leaned primarily on a curveball this year, with that low-80s offering generating a fair amount of soft contact but not missing many bats. Danish was reasonably effective against right-handed batters, against whom he managed a .245/.310/.415 line. He couldn’t find much of an answer for southpaws, though, punching out just seven of the 57 lefties he faced and surrendering a .275/.351/.490 mark.

Because he’s already been outrighted in his career, Danish had the right to elect free agency as soon as he cleared waivers. He’ll head back to the open market and may be looking at minor league offers with Spring Training invitations once again.

With the offseason approaching, the Red Sox are conducting typical roster maintenance. Removing Danish from the 40-man drops their tally to 39. The Sox have five players on the 60-day injured list who’ll need to be reinstated at the start of the offseason, although they’re on track to see seven players hit free agency (including Xander Bogaerts, who’s a lock to opt out of his contract if the sides don’t agree on an extension in the next week and a half).

Royals Considering Will Venable For Managerial Job

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Red Sox bench coach/outfield instructor Will Venable is one of the candidates to be the Royals’ new manager, according to The New York Post’s Jon Heyman.  Venable is a new addition to a field known to include several internal candidates (K.C. bench coach Pedro Grifol, third base coach Vance Wilson and Triple-A manager Scott Thorman) as well as Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro and Dodgers first base coach Clayton McCullough.

It is possible other names are still under consideration, though it does seem like the Royals might be nearing the final stages of their search, as Heyman writes that “Quatraro has been seen as the favorite” and past reports have suggested McCullough as a finalist.  Phillies third base coach Dusty Wathan also interviewed with the Royals but is now out of the running after signing a contract extension to remain in Philadelphia.

Venable (who celebrates his 40th birthday today) is known by most fans for his nine-year playing career, which saw him suit up for eight seasons with the Padres and brief stints with the Rangers and Dodgers from 2008-16.  Moving almost directly into a new role as a coach, Venable was on the Cubs’ staff from 2018-20 as a first base and third base coach, and then took his current role as Alex Cora’s right-hand man prior to the 2021 season.

With more teams frequently looking to hire younger managers only recently removed from their playing days, Venable has been a popular interview candidate for the last few cycles’ worth of managerial searches.  The Athletics, Giants, Astros, and Tigers all spoke with Venable in regards to recent openings in the dugout, and the Red Sox themselves interviewed Venable for the manager’s job before re-hiring Cora, though the Sox were obviously still impressed enough to bring Venable on board as bench coach.

Of the six known candidates in the Royals’ search, none have previously worked as a Major League manager on anything more than a fill-in basis.  (For instance, Venable served as Boston’s manager for a few games earlier this season when Cora was sidelined with COVID-19.)  Barring any other experienced skippers surfacing in the search, it would appear as though new Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo is favoring a first-time manager as the replacement for Mike Matheny.

Red Sox Not Planning To Extend A Qualifying Offer To J.D. Martinez

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The Red Sox are not planning to extend a qualifying offer to veteran slugger J.D. Martinez, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Heyman’s report comes at what may be the beginning of an offseason of transition in Boston. With Xander Bogaerts’ opt-out clause looming and extension talks with Rafael Devers having yet to yield any results, Martinez could be one of multiple all-stars whose time in Boston may soon come to an end.

Martinez, age 35, is coming off of his fifth season with Boston, during which he played 139 games and slashed .274/.341/.448. Though Martinez rated as a well above average offensive player by wRC+ (119), his 16 2022 home runs are his fewest in a season since 2013. 2022 was also the first season in Martinez’s career that the five-time all-star did not log a single inning at a defensive position, as Alex Cora used him exclusively as a designated hitter. Martinez ought to have no problem finding employment next season, however. He has been one of the most consistent and productive hitters over the last decade, averaging 26 home runs and a .293 average since 2013.

MLBTR ranks Martinez as the best full-time DH available this offseason. He will headline a DH-class that includes other options such as Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz. Full-time DH’s have reduced earning power compared to other free agents due to their limited defense. The market for this player prototype has the potential to appeal any club looking for a discounted injection of offense without shuffling their defensive alignment. Assured production is paramount when a team decides to commit substantial resources to an offense-only player. Out of the three, Martinez is by far the surest bet. The contrast of Carpenter’s herculean summer with the Yankees and his paltry 2019-2021 leaves uncertainty about in his ability to produce going forward. Carpenter does have the ability to play some defense, however, having lined up at all four corner positions in 2022. Cruz looked ageless until last season, when he experienced substantial drops in hard-contact rate and exit velocity in the midst of his worst offensive season ever as a big league regular.

As the market’s best full-time DH, there ought to be plenty of teams looking to add some thump to their lineup that will consider signing Martinez. Logical suitors may theoretically include the Diamondbacks, who are looking for a right-handed bat, per Heyman, and the Marlins, who plan to address their weak offense this offseason. That being said, any team that may be inclined to add a full-time DH figures to have interest in Martinez on a one or two-year deal with an AAV below the qualifying offer worth $19.65 MM.

It is also possible that Martinez winds up back with Boston, despite the fact that the Red Sox are not planning to extend him a qualifying offer. Chaim Bloom’s decision to not tie draft pick compensation to Martinez’s free agency is likely to be rooted in the Sox’ evaluation of what Martinez could be worth in 2023, as opposed to whether or not they he would like to keep him on Boston’s roster. Martinez has been well worth the 5-year, $110MM deal he signed with the Red Sox in the 2017-2018 offseason and has given every indication that he can still be a productive DH. If Martinez does not receive a qualifying offer, it would indicate Bloom’s unwillingness to pay a full-time DH, albeit a productive one, a salary of $19.65 MM. It could also signify Bloom’s desire to provide consistent opportunity for some of Boston’s core of young first baseman/DH types, like Bobby Dalbec and Triston Casas. They also have Eric Hosmer on the roster, though it’s unclear how committed they are to him. With the Padres paying down the majority of his contract, Boston is only on the hook for the league minimum salary and could cut ties if they found options they liked better.

In a postgame interview with NESN’s Jahmai Webster on October 6, Martinez expressed gratitude to his teammates and to Boston fans for their support, adding that he’ll “see what happens” in free agency (via Twitter). If he does wind up back with the Red Sox, it will be interesting to see how close Martinez’s new salary will come to the $19.65 MM figure that the Boston appears unlikely to offer him.

Large Gap Remains Between Red Sox, Rafael Devers In Extension Talks

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The contract statuses of Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers have been front of mind for Red Sox’s fans dating back to at least this past Spring Training. The club made unsuccessful runs at extending both players in March. Those efforts were put on hold during the season, but with the offseason approaching, they’re certain to rekindle discussions.

Chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom already called working on a new deal with Bogaerts before he opts out (which he can formally do after the World Series) a “top priority” this month. There’s less immediate urgency with Devers, who’s still one year from the open market, but there’s no question Boston’s front office will be in touch with the third baseman’s camp at Rep 1 Baseball throughout the winter.

Earlier this week, reporter Yancen Pujols tweeted the team was making a renewed effort at an extension. Subsequent reports out of Boston characterized a visit from assistant general manager Eddie Romero to Devers in his native Dominican Republic as more of a typical offseason check-in (links via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe and Chris Cotillo of MassLive). There was no question the Sox would make a run at extending Devers at some point this winter, but it’s not clear how much to make of Romero’s check-in.

Regardless of the specific nature of the meeting between Romero and Devers, Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes tonight the sides have indeed reopened talks recently. Heyman reports that Boston has put forth an offer at or above $200MM but suggests there’s still a notable gap between the sides. According to Heyman, Devers’ camp is seeking a deal of ten-plus years worth at least $300MM.

During Spring Training, the Sox reportedly used the eight-year, $168MM extension signed by Braves first baseman Matt Olson as a viable comparison in talks. The sides were well apart at that time, although Devers’ specific asking price was unclear. Boston has raised its offer on the heels of another very strong season from Devers, but the two-time All-Star has increased leverage after an excellent year that moved him closer to free agency.

In his age-25 campaign, Devers appeared in 141 games and tallied 614 plate appearances. He connected on 27 home runs and put together a .295/.358/.521 line. Those slash stats are in line with his numbers from recent seasons, but Devers’ production was arguably a career best in the context of a leaguewide offensive downturn. By measure of wRC+ (which adjusts annually for the league environment and ballpark), he was 41 percentage points better than an average batter. That’s the best mark of his career, and it ranked among the top 20 hitters in the game (minimum 500 plate appearances).

With another great season under his belt, Devers can feel even more comfortable setting a lofty ask in extension talks. He banked $11.2MM this year and is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $16.9MM range next season if he goes through his final year of arbitration. He’s presently slated to be one of the top talents in the 2023-24 free agent class, arguably second behind Shohei Ohtani.

12 months from the open market, Devers’ camp can look to the biggest free agent deals in MLB history to set their asking price. A $16.9MM projected arb salary is obviously below his free agent market value, but he’ll lock in one more strong payday before getting to the open market. The Red Sox can perhaps hope to price in a marginal discount to guard against the possibility of Devers having a disappointing or injury-plagued platform year, but the star third baseman has a significant amount of leverage in talks.

This summer, the Braves signed their All-Star third baseman, Austin Riley, to a 10-year, $212MM extension. Riley owned a .301/.360/.604 line at the time of that deal but serves as a generally similar comparison as a bat-first third baseman. However, Riley’s deal was signed midway through his third full MLB season and bought out his final three years of arbitration eligibility. With only one arbitration season remaining, Devers has far more leverage in extension talks. It’s little surprise his reps are aiming much higher than the Riley range.

At the same time, it’s easy to understand why the Red Sox may not be anxious to dole out a deal topping $300MM. That’s a threshold reached only nine times in MLB history. Mookie Betts, Mike Trout, Francisco Lindor, Fernando Tatis Jr. and Giancarlo Stanton got there on extensions, while Bryce Harper, Corey Seager, Gerrit Cole and Manny Machado reached or topped the marker on free agent deals.

Devers turned 26 earlier in the week and is on track to reach free agency going into his age-27 season. That’s a year older than Machado and Harper were over the 2018-19 offseason but a year younger than Seager was last winter. Broadly speaking, that youth serves Devers well in his effort to land a decade-long commitment. It’s rare to see teams commit to players deep into their 30’s, but a lengthy pact is more palatable for players who hit the market in their mid-20’s.

At the same time, one could argue all three players were safer long-term bets than Devers. Harper had a more robust offensive track record that included a monster 2015 showing to win an MVP. Machado had hit .297/.367/.538 during his platform year and was a Gold Glove-caliber third baseman who could play shortstop if needed. Seager is a full-time shortstop who had a .306/.394/.521 mark during his final year in Los Angeles. All three players also had the benefit of an open market bidding war.

That wasn’t the case for Betts and Lindor, each of whom signed extensions above $300MM with between five and six years of service time. Both players, however, had far more defensive value than Devers. Betts is one of the sport’s top outfielders, and Lindor is arguably the game’s best shortstop.

Devers, by contrast, comes with his share of defensive question marks. He’s played almost exclusively third base in the majors but has always been regarded as a bat-first player. There’s been some trepidation dating back to his time as a prospect about how long he could stick at the hot corner, and that’s largely been borne out in his defensive metrics as a big leaguer. He’s rated as a below-average defender by measure of Defensive Runs Saved in every season of his career. Statcast gave him an outlier excellent defensive grade in 2019 but has otherwise panned his work as well. This past season, he rated as six runs below average by measure of DRS and two runs below par according to Statcast.

While there’s no indication the Sox would want to move Devers off the hot corner immediately, it’s fair to wonder how deep into a long-term deal he can stick there. He certainly has the offensive aptitude to continue playing every day as a first baseman or designated hitter, but a move further down the defensive spectrum would reduce the team’s roster flexibility around him somewhat.

That’s not to say Devers isn’t an excellent player, but $300MM+ investments have generally been reserved for players with more defensive value or an established MVP-caliber offensive season. Stanton’s 13-year, $325MM extension over the 2014-15 offseason may be the best example for Devers’ camp, but Stanton landed that deal after a .288/.395/.555 showing in one of the game’s most pitcher-friendly home environments.

Given the recent comparable players, it’s little surprise Devers and his group would want to handily top $200MM while the Red Sox would balk at an ask north of $300MM. There’s obviously a fair bit of ground in between those extremes. Whether the sides can find a mutually agreeable price at some point over the next six months will be one of the key storylines of the Boston offseason.

Brock Holt Announces Retirement

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Utility-man Brock Holt has announced his retirement from the game after ten years in the major leagues in a post on Instagram. Holt spent seven seasons with the Red Sox, but also had stints with the Pirates, Brewers, Nationals and Rangers during his career. He retires with a career .262/.332/.362 slash line and 25 home runs across 751 games.

“Today I hang them up knowing I did the best I could for me, my family, and my teammates. I’m proud of every single second of it.” Holt wrote.

Drafted in the ninth-round of the 2009 draft by the Pirates, Holt made his MLB debut in Pittsburgh in 2012. He appeared in a handful of games that year before the Pirates shipped him and closer Joel Hanrahan to the Red Sox in the Mark Melancon deal. In 2014 he established his value in Boston, appearing in 106 games and hitting .281/.331/.381 while logging time at every position bar pitcher and catcher. Having not accrued enough plate appearances during the previous two seasons, Holt was eligible for rookie of the year honors that year, and finished eighth in AL voting.

Holt continued to provide value to the Red Sox, earning an All-Star game selection in 2015 and appearing in eight games during Boston’s World Series-winning postseason in 2018. In the final two years before free agency, Holt hit .286/.366/.407 in 662 plate appearances and set himself up to do nicely on the open market.

That wasn’t to be though, and Holt signed with the Brewers late in the winter prior to the 2020 campaign. After the pandemic-induced delay to that season, Holt hit just .100/.222/.100 in 36 plate appearances and was designated for assignment. He bounced around the majors a bit after that, spending time with the Nationals in late-2020, before playing for the Rangers during the 2021 campaign. Holt inked a minor league deal with the Braves prior to the 2022 season, but was released after failing to make the opening day roster.

We at MLB Trade Rumors congratulate Holt on his career in the majors, and wish him all the best in his future endeavors.

Rich Hill, Red Sox Have “Mutual Interest” In Reunion

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Rich Hill revealed on The Bradfo Sho podcast earlier this week that he’s had preliminary talks with the Red Sox about a return to Boston next season, saying that the two sides have “mutual interest” in a deal. Hill, 42, will be a free agent at the conclusion of the post-season.

“We’ve talked and had lunch with a few of the guys in the front office, and understand that there’s a mutual interest there,” Hill said. “Being able to stay home would be great.”

The Massachusetts native signed a one-year deal with the Red Sox last December, and turned in 124 1/3 innings of 4.27 ERA ball across 26 starts. Despite being the oldest active player in the majors, Hill didn’t show any signs of decline in 2022, and advanced metrics were all largely in line with his past few years of work. His strikeout rate dipped slightly from 22.7% in 2021 to 20.7% in 2022, but there were no major changes to his velocity and the lefty walked fewer batters as well (7% in ’22 down from 8.3% in ’21). He did miss a month in July due to a knee strain, and while there’s always some durability concern with a player entering their age-43 season, he’s still made 57 starts in the past two seasons.

Given the state of the Red Sox’ rotation and the fact that Hill lives in the Boston area, it’s no surprise that the two sides are interested in getting a deal done. Nick Pivetta is the most reliable starter under contract for next year, while rookie Brayan Bello showed promise in his 11 starts, but beyond that there’s a lot of uncertainty. Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha combined for 43 starts in 2022, but they join Hill as pending free agents. Former ace Chris Sale is a lock to opt in to the remaining two years, $55MM on his contract (with a $20MM vesting option in ’25), but he’s made just 11 starts in the past three seasons and while he’s expected to be fit for spring training, his injury history is a concern. The team turned to youngsters Garrett Whitlock, Kutter Crawford and Josh Winckowski for starts at points last season, but none is guaranteed to be a rotation option in 2023.

Ultimately, if the Red Sox are looking to compete in a crowded AL East they’ll need to upgrade their rotation. While Hill going into his age-43 season is not the big splash Sox fans may be hoping for, the team will surely need more than one starting pitcher addition, so a reunion with the veteran would solidify the rotation and likely wouldn’t come at a huge financial cost.

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