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James Paxton Exercises Player Option

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The Red Sox announced that lefty James Paxton has triggered his $4MM player option, sticking with the club for 2023.

Paxton, 34, has oscillated back and forth in his career between excellent results and injury setbacks. He was drafted by the Mariners and pitched for them from 2013 to 2018. In those six seasons, he never posted an ERA higher than 3.90 but also never stayed healthy for a full season, topping out at 28 starts and 160 1/3 innings in his last year in Seattle. After being traded to the Yankees prior to 2019, he had another solid season, though again limited by injuries. He made 29 starts for the Yanks and tossed 150 2/3 innings, posting an ERA of 3.82.

The injury issues have only gotten worse since then, as the lefty was limited to just five starts and 20 1/3 innings in 2020 due to a left flexor strain. He reached free agency after that campaign and signed a deal to return to Seattle for 2021. He made only one appearance, throwing just 1 1/3 innings, before being shut down and eventually requiring Tommy John surgery.

Going into 2022, his status was uncertain. He was definitely going to miss some time, but it was possible he could be recovered from the TJS in time to contribute to a team down the stretch. He and the Sox agreed to a convoluted deal that reflected that uncertainty. Paxton earned a $6MM salary in 2022, with the convoluted part coming after that. First, the Red Sox would have to decide whether or not to trigger a two-year club option that would pay Paxton $26MM, with a $13MM salary in both 2023 and 2024. If they declined, Paxton would have the ability to trigger a one-year, $4MM option for 2023.

That structure seemed to take into account the wide variance of potential outcomes. If Paxton were able to return and show some of his previous excellent results, the Sox would be rewarded for taking the gamble by getting to lock him down for another two years. If things went the other way, their obligations would be significantly less but Paxton had a safety net in there for himself.

The latter scenario was what ended up happening in 2022, as Paxton suffered a lat strain during his rehab and never made it back to the active roster. Now the southpaw is in the position of having missed an entire season as well as only logging 21 2/3 innings over the past three seasons combined. That made it a fairly easy call for Boston to turn down their option as opposed to committing to Paxton for another two years. That decision was indeed confirmed on Monday.

That put the onus on Paxton to decide whether or not to lock in a $4MM guarantee for 2023. On the one hand, after three straight effectively lost seasons, it’s probably difficult to turn down cash on the barrel like that. On the other hand, Paxton got himself a $10MM guarantee last offseason when it was known that he was going to miss at least part of the year. In the end, he decided to opt for the proverbial bird in the hand as opposed to seeing what other creative deals he could find on the open market.

This decision could potentially work out for both parties in 2023, given the uncertainty in the Boston rotation. Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill have just become free agents, leaving some big holes in the rotation. Chris Sale declined his opt-out and will remain with the club next year, though he’s tough to rely on right now. Similar to Paxton, various injuries have limited him to 48 1/3 total innings over the past three seasons. He will surely have a role but might not be able to log over 200 frames like he has done in the past. That leaves Nick Pivetta as the most reliable member for next year, with some wild card options like Tanner Houck, Garrett Whitlock and Brayan Bello in the mix.

With all of that uncertainty, it’s likely that Paxton will be given a chance to make some starts and re-establish his health before returning to the open market a year from now. For the Sox, they will get a high-risk, high-reward roll of the dice that would certainly be worth the modest $4MM figure if Paxton’s health can cooperate.

Latest On Market For Willson Contreras

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Free agency commences in a few days, and Willson Contreras will be the unquestioned top backstop available. The career-long Cub is certain to receive and reject a qualifying offer from Chicago while his representatives at Octagon set out in search of a strong multi-year pact.

While clubs can’t formally begin to discuss contract terms with other teams’ free agents until Thursday, they’ve no doubt identified players of interest with the offseason underway. A few teams outside of Chicago have already loosely emerged in the Contreras market. Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweeted this morning the Tigers have interest in the three-time All-Star, while Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link) hears the Astros are contemplating a free agent pursuit.

It’s easy to see the link in both cases. Detroit is led by first-year president of baseball operations Scott Harris, who worked in the Cubs front office through the end of the 2019 season. Harris’ familiarity with Contreras doesn’t on its own give Detroit much of a leg up in free agency, but there’s a clear opportunity for them to pursue catching help. Detroit sees Tucker Barnhart hit free agency, and he looks unlikely to return after a rough year. Eric Haase has decent power and could be an immediate catching option after hitting .254/.305/.443 in 110 games, but he’s never rated highly defensively and may be a better fit for increased work in left field and/or at designated hitter.

Harris declined comment on Contreras specifically when speaking with reporters at the GM Meetings this evening (via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press). However, he broadly sounded open to the idea of adding catching help from outside the organization. Harris noted the presence of some internal prospect talent — presumably primarily in reference to former second-round pick Dillon Dingler and to 2021 11th-rounder Josh Crouch — but downplayed the likelihood of anyone from the system seizing that job for 2023. Neither Dingler nor Crouch needs to be added to the 40-man roster this winter, and neither has yet reached Triple-A. Whether Detroit should be willing to surrender a draft choice for a qualified free agent on the heels of a 66-win season is fair to ask, but it seems likely the Tigers will address catcher in some form over the coming months.

The Astros’ interest in Contreras dates back at least to this past summer. The front office arranged a deal that would’ve sent José Urquidy to the Cubs for Contreras at the deadline, but Houston owner Jim Crane vetoed it. Houston pivoted to land Christian Vázquez from the Red Sox instead, but he’s now the #2 backstop behind Contreras in free agency. A Vázquez reunion seems unlikely after he saw sporadic playing time behind Martín Maldonado down the stretch. Maldonado’s presence could be a roadblock to a Contreras pursuit as well, given the World Series champion’s longstanding affinity for the defensive specialist, but Contreras could be such a marked offensive upgrade the team is willing to consider scaling back Maldonado’s playing time to add an impact bat.

Certainly, interest in Contreras will extend far beyond two teams. High-ranking executives with the Diamondbacks, Cardinals and Red Sox have already gone on record about an openness to adding behind the plate. Katie Woo of the Athletic tweets the Cardinals consider catcher to be their #1 priority, with president of baseball operations John Mozeliak open to both free agent and trade possibilities. The Cardinals have long prioritized elite defense behind the dish with Yadier Molina, perhaps making them an odd fit for a bat-first player like Contreras, but Woo relays that St. Louis isn’t solely looking for defensive stalwarts but is prioritizing all-around impact from the position.

The Red Sox, on the other hand, may have more trepidation about Contreras’ mixed reputation as a game-caller. Alex Speier of the Boston Globe writes that Boston is unlikely to make a serious run at the 30-year-old backstop as they place an emphasis on managing a pitching staff. Concerns about Contreras’ game-calling acumen were mentioned at the deadline as well, perhaps playing a role in the Cubs not finding an offer that inspired them to part ways with him despite being well out of playoff contention. Speier notes the Red Sox have had longstanding interest in A’s backstop Sean Murphy — who’ll be a frequent trade target again this winter — and reports they’ve previously checked in on the Padres’ Austin Nola.

Eric Hosmer Won’t Exercise Opt-Out Clause

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In one of the most obvious opt-out decisions in recent memory, Red Sox first baseman Eric Hosmer will forgo his opportunity to return to the open market, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. He’s now locked into the final three years and $39MM of the contract, although the Sox are only on the hook for the league minimum in each of the next three seasons. The Padres are paying the remainder of Hosmer’s salary each season under the terms of the deadline trade that sent him to Boston.

The eight-year, $144MM contract Hosmer signed with San Diego prior to the 2018 season went south almost immediately. A then-27-year-old Hosmer posted a massive .318/.385/.498 slash and swatted 25 homers for the second consecutive season in 2017 — his final year with the Royals, who originally drafted him No. 3 overall in 2008. That led to the aforementioned eight-year deal for Hosmer, but his offensive production cratered in year one with the Friars, as he hit just .253/.322/.398 in his first year with the team.

Over the first five seasons of that nine-figure contract, Hosmer has been exactly average at the plate, by measure of wRC+. He’s hit .265/.325/.409 and averaged 18 home runs and 30 doubles per 162 games played. Hosmer hasn’t necessarily been a bad hitter, but his $18MM annual salary was promised to him under the assumption that he’d continue on as a well above-average, middle-of-the-order hitter.

That simply hasn’t been the case, due in large part to the fact that Hosmer’s bloated ground-ball rate with the Royals actually got even higher with the Friars. Since signing in San Diego, 56.5% of Hosmer’s batted balls have been hit on the ground — the fourth-highest mark among 315 qualified MLB hitters in that stretch. Perhaps the limitations on infield shifts that are coming in 2023 will help Hosmer in that regard, but his repeated inability to elevate the ball will continue to suppress his power output.

The Padres traded Hosmer and a pair of minor leaguers (Corey Rosier and Max Ferguson) to the Red Sox in exchange for former first-round pick Jay Groome, agreeing to pay Hosmer’s salary down to the league minimum as part of the contract. Hosmer also was granted a full no-trade clause as part of that deal, so he’ll have the final say on whether he’ll remain in Boston through 2025 unless the Sox ultimately release him. For now, he’ll give the Red Sox a cost-effective veteran first baseman or perhaps designated hitter, dependent on when the team is ready to give top prospect Triston Casas a full-time look in the big leagues.

Bloom: Bogaerts Remains Red Sox’s Preferred Option At Shortstop

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The Red Sox and star shortstop Xander Bogaerts didn’t agree on a contract extension before the start of the offseason. The four-time All-Star officially opted out of the final three years on his deal with Boston this morning, sending him to the open market for the first time in his career. The Sox still have exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts through Thursday, but there’s little question at this point his representatives at the Boras Corporation will soon be in contact with other teams.

Speaking with reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) this evening, Boston chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom reiterated that retaining Bogaerts would be the Sox’s ideal choice for addressing shortstop. “We want him here. He makes us better,” Bloom said. “We respect his right to exercise [the opt-out] and to explore the market. We want him back and we will stay engaged with him.”

Boston’s baseball operations leader acknowledged the presence of a few other star free agent shortstops — namely Carlos Correa, Trea Turner and Dansby Swanson. While Bloom suggested the team would explore the market for potential alternatives, he didn’t mince words when expressing the front office’s overall preference. “He’s our first choice. That’s not going to change,” he told reporters. “Part of our jobs is to explore every option to field a contending team next year and put together a really good group. We need to explore every possible way to do that, but Bogey’s our first choice.”

Bloom indicated he believes either Trevor Story or Enrique Hernández would be capable of playing shortstop if necessary but made clear the team would prefer to keep them at other positions to keep Bogaerts around. Story moved to second base this past season. While he’d played his whole career at shortstop with the Rockies prior to this year, Story has spoken about his desire to stick at the keystone if it means the Red Sox re-sign their longtime shortstop. That’d presumably keep Hernández in center field primarily, with the lackluster free agent market at that position seemingly playing a role in Boston’s decision to keep the utilityman around with a $10MM contract extension on Labor Day.

Of course, this is far from the first time Sox’s brass has gone on record about their affinity for Bogaerts. Immediately after the season, Bloom called re-signing the four-time Silver Slugger winner before free agency the team’s top priority. That obviously didn’t happen, and Speier writes that while the sides did have some discussions after the season wrapped up, it became clear fairly early on they wouldn’t get a deal done before the opt-out date.

Boston is sure to kick off the offseason by tagging Bogaerts with a qualifying offer. They’d receive only minimal compensation if he were to sign elsewhere, however. Because the Red Sox exceeded the base luxury tax threshold this past season, they’d add only an extra draft choice after the fourth round. Conversely, signing a player like Turner or Swanson who rejects a qualifying offer from another team — Correa is ineligible to receive a QO because he’s previously received one in his career — would lead Boston to forfeit both their second and fifth-highest picks in next year’s draft and $1MM in international signing bonus space. Certainly, the front office will weigh their long-term projections of each of the top free agents more heavily than the draft choices in deciding how to proceed, but they’d pay a heavier draft penalty for adding either Swanson or Turner than they would for retaining Bogaerts (and thus forfeiting the compensatory pick).

Bogaerts heads into his age-31 season coming off a .307/.377/.456 mark through 631 plate appearances. His power production dipped relative to his best seasons, but he hit above .285 with an on-base percentage at .360 or better for the fifth straight year. He also earned slightly above-average marks from public defensive metrics, an important step towards quieting some concerns he’ll have to move off shortstop in the relatively near future.

Red Sox To Decline Option On James Paxton; Paxton Yet To Decide On Player Option

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The Red Sox are declining their two-year, $26MM team option on left-hander James Paxton, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). The southpaw will now have to decide whether to trigger a $4MM player option to return to Boston or if he wishes to test the open market.

This was a no-brainer for the Red Sox, as the 6’4″ hurler missed the entire 2022 season. Paxton blew out his elbow during his first start of the 2021 season with the Mariners, requiring Tommy John surgery. That cost him the rest of the year, but the Sox signed him to a complex $10MM guarantee last winter. The deal paid him $6MM for this past season and guaranteed him the option to lock in a $4MM salary for next year if Boston didn’t trigger a pair of $13MM club options covering the 2023-24 campaigns.

It was a high-risk, high-upside dice roll for the Red Sox that hasn’t panned out. Boston had hoped Paxton would be able to return late in the season and contribute to a possible playoff push, but he suffered a Grade 2 lat tear while rehabbing and didn’t wind up throwing a big league pitch. With all of 1 1/3 innings pitched over the past two seasons, there was no chance the Red Sox would commit an additional $26MM on a bounceback.

Paxton’s now left with an interesting decision. He may be hard-pressed to find a $4MM base salary on the open market after two essentially lost seasons, but it’s possible he declines the option in search of an incentive-laden deal. Even if the 34-year-old doesn’t find an offer that quite matches the $4MM guarantee he’d be foregoing, he could seek out a deal that contains additional bonuses based on his number of innings pitched or starts in 2023 if he’s confident he’ll be healthy by Spring Training.

Red Sox To Decline Tommy Pham’s 2023 Mutual Option

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The Red Sox won’t be exercising their end of Tommy Pham’s $12MM mutual option for 2023, Julian McWilliams of The Boston Globe reports.  Pham gets a $1.5MM buyout on the option, and becomes a free agent.

It was a tough season for Pham, who may have received more attention for a fantasy football-related altercation with Joc Pederson than for anything he did on the field in 2022.  Pham hit .236/.312/.374 over 622 combined plate appearances with the Reds and Red Sox, with Pham coming to Boston at the trade deadline.  The acquisition seemed a little unusual given that the Sox were on the outskirts of the playoff race and had already dealt away Christian Vazquez in a seeming “seller” move, yet the Red Sox were hopeful that Pham and Eric Hosmer (picked up in another deal from the Padres) could help spark a late-season run.

Unfortunately, as Boston as well as in Cincinnati, Pham couldn’t translate his 89th percentile hard-hit ball rate into consistent production.  Pham didn’t help his cause with a 26.8% strikeout rate (his highest since the 2016 season) that included a lot of extra pitches chased outside the strike zone without any success.  His nine percent walk rate was still above the league average, yet well below the 90th-percentile average that Pham previously posted during his career.

Vision problems may have contributed to this down season, as Pham has been dealing with keratoconus (a cornea-thinning eye issue) for several years, but he told McWilliams that he believes he now has the problem corrected.  This is hardly the first or most serious health problem Pham has had to overcome, as he was the victim of a stabbing incident in October 2020.

Pham expressed an interest in returning to Boston, which may yet be a possibility given the uncertainty in the outfield picture.  Enrique Hernandez and Alex Verdugo look like the only regulars in place, and even Verdugo might not be a safe bet given some recent trade speculation.  It remains to be seen if the Red Sox might look to bolster the outfield with a star-level everyday regular, or if they could perhaps add a complementary or part-time veteran to allow for mixing and matching at-bats for Jarren Duran and Rob Refsnyder.  In general, the Sox could just be looking for more power in the outfield, which might not bode well for Pham given his modest slugging percentages in the last three seasons.

Xander Bogaerts Opt Out Of Red Sox Contract

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As expected, Red Sox shortstop Xander Bogaerts has officially opted out of his contract, as the MLB Players Association announced (via Twitter) that Bogaerts was among the latest players to join the free agent market.  Bogaerts will leave the final three years and $60MM of his deal with Boston to look for a larger contract on the open market.

There was never much suspense over Bogaerts’ decision, as an opt-out always seemed pretty likely even from the moment the shortstop signed the six-year, $120MM extension back in April 2019.  Bogaerts just turned 30 years old last month, and he’ll surely command far beyond three years and $60MM in his first taste of the free agent market.

Perhaps the only question surrounding the opt-out was whether or not the Red Sox would make it a moot point, by agreeing to another extension with Bogaerts.  However, extension talks back in the spring reportedly saw Boston make a surprisingly small offer of only an extra season and another $30MM added to Bogaerts’ current contract.  As of a month ago, Bogaerts said the two sides hadn’t had any other further negotiations, though it’s probably safe to assume that some talks did take place, given how chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom stressed that Bogaerts was Boston’s top priority heading into the offseason.

The Red Sox still retain exclusive negotiating rights with Bogaerts until free agency officially opens on Thursday.  While the two sides have shared mutual interest in Bogaerts’ continued future in Boston, it would be awfully surprising to see the two sides agree to a new deal so close to the opening of the market.  Once other teams can speak to Bogaerts, it remains to be seen whether the Sox will outbid other suitors, or if they’ll perhaps explore other shortstop options after 10 seasons with Bogaerts at Fenway Park.

AL Notes: Verdugo, Mike Maddux, Rays’ Coaching Shuffle

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Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com has floated Alex Verdugo’s name as a potential trade candidate this offseason. Verdugo, age-26, is coming off a season in which he regressed on all fronts of his game. From 2021 to 2022, Verdugo’s wRC+ dipped from 107 to 103, all of the figures in his slash decreased (.289/.351/.426 to .280/.328/.405), he lost .2 ft/s in sprint speed, and went from +1 DRS in 2021 to -4 DRS in 2022. Cotillo adds that according to a source, Red Sox brass were frustrated with his decision to bulk up in the offseason, a choice Verdugo made with the intention of hitting for more power. As evident by his decreased slugging and the fact that his weight has seemingly slowed him down on the bases and in the outfield, the choice to get bigger appears to have hindered Verdugo’s development more than it has helped him.

Speculation regarding a potential Verdugo trade comes as the Red Sox are in need of some help in the outfield. As currently constructed, Verdugo and Kiké Hernandez are Boston’s only outfield locks. Rob Refsnyder and Jarren Duran are decent depth options, but don’t provide as much thump as external options perhaps would, and a Verdugo-Hernandez-Refsnyder/Duran combo would leave Boston’s outfield lacking in offensive firepower. If the Red Sox do trade Verdugo, it would probably come after Boston goes out and gets someone on the free agent market or via trade to lock down a corner outfield spot. Verdugo could fetch the Sox a decent return, and may be flipped to improve Boston’s bullpen, which struggled in 2022. With Verdugo set for a pay raise in his second year of arbitration, it will not be entirely surprising if Chaim Bloom decides to move on from one of the centerpieces of Boston’s return from the Mookie Betts trade.

Some other news from around the AL:

  • Mike Maddux is interested in rejoining the Rangers as their pitching coach, reports Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News. The Rangers fired Doug Mathis and re-assigned Brendan Sagara, who had served as co-pitching coaches for 2022, less than twenty-four hours after the end of the 2023 season. Maddux previously served as Rangers pitching coach from 2009 to 2015, and recently left his post as pitching coach of the Cardinals. Grant notes that Maddux lives in the Dallas area, adding that the Rangers could pair a veteran coach, like Maddux, with someone else who is “more in tune with biomechanics and the art of pitch design” to co-lead the Rangers staff.
  • Brady Williams, manager of Triple-A Durham for the Rays, will be promoted to big league staff as part of the fall out from the Royals’ managerial hiring of former Rays bench coach Matt Quatraro, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. With Quatraro out, third base coach Rodney Linares is expected to become the new bench coach. It is unclear as to what role Williams will assume with the Rays in what will be his first opportunity to coach in the big leagues. Williams has spent his entire coaching career within the Rays organization, managing at Short-Season Hudson Valley, Single-A Bowling Green, Advanced-A Charlotte, and Double-A Montgomery, as well as Durham before getting the call to the majors.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The World Series concludes this weekend, and the offseason gets underway almost immediately thereafter. Teams and players have to decide whether to exercise contractual options within five days of the Series ending, while clubs also must determine whether to issue their impending free agents a qualifying offer before free agency officially opens. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk took a preliminary look at the qualifying offer class in August (position players/pitchers).

With another few months of play in the books, we’ll take a final run at previewing the class. As a refresher, the qualifying offer is a one-year offer that’s calculated by averaging the salaries of the 125 highest-paid players in the majors in a given season. That value has been set at $19.65MM for this offseason. If a player rejects the offer, he sets out into free agency. The player’s previous team would receive draft pick compensation if he signs elsewhere, while a team that signs another club’s qualified free agent would forfeit a draft choice (or choices) and possibly international signing bonus space.

Draft pick compensation and forfeiture differs depending on a team’s revenue sharing status and whether they exceeded the luxury tax threshold this year. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes looked yesterday at what picks each team would lose were they to sign a qualified free agent; conversely, Mark Polishuk covered the draft pick compensation clubs would land if one of their qualified free agents departed.

Locks

There’s not a whole lot to say about this group. These are 10 of the best impending free agents. Bogaerts, deGrom, Judge, Rodón, Swanson and Turner are all going to top nine figures. Díaz, Nimmo and maybe Contreras could get to $100MM. Bassitt doesn’t have quite that earning power, since he’ll turn 34 in February. That caps the length of the contract he can expect, but the veteran righty is arguably the fourth-best starting pitcher on the market. He’s likely to land an annual salary similar to the value of the QO over a multi-year term.

Possible Candidates

A stable back-of-the-rotation strike-thrower, Anderson inked an $8MM guarantee with the Dodgers last year. The veteran southpaw responded with a career season, posting a sparkling 2.57 ERA across 178 2/3 innings. He walked fewer than 5% of opposing hitters and averaged almost six innings per appearance, an incredible source of stability in a rotation that dealt with a fair share of injuries.

Headed into his age-33 season, Anderson is now in position for easily the best payday of his career. The question is whether that might come in the form of the QO. The Dodgers certainly have the budget for an investment of that size, and they’re never shy about stockpiling pitching depth. Yet it’s fair to wonder whether Anderson projects markedly differently than he did last winter when he was coming off a combined 4.49 ERA from 2020-21. He benefited from a career-low .256 batting average on balls in play this year, and his 19.5% strikeout rate is a near-match for his 2021 mark. His fastball still averages under 91 MPH, and while he turned to his changeup more often this past season than he has previously, he didn’t dramatically overhaul his repertoire. Anderson’s a solid pitcher with a knack for getting opponents to chase and make weak contact, but he doesn’t brandish the kind of power arsenal that’d immediately endear him to teams.

Eovaldi is wrapping up a four-year deal he signed with the Red Sox on the heels of his incredible 2018 postseason. The right-hander had a tough 2019 season but has followed up with three generally solid years since then. Eovaldi has posted an ERA between 3.72 and 3.87 since 2020, consistent mid-rotation production. That’s in line with what he’s done for much of his career.

Despite possessing big velocity, Eovaldi’s more of a control artist than a bat-missing weapon at the top of the starting staff. He’s incredibly walked less than 5% of opposing hitters in each of the last three years, with a cumulative 4.4% mark that’s the second-lowest among 94 pitchers with 250+ innings over that stretch. He posts above-average swinging strike rates but not elite numbers in that regard, and he tends to give up a fair number of home runs.

One can argue Eovaldi’s the fourth or fifth-best free agent starter available, although he spent time on the injured list this year with separate back and shoulder concerns en route to just 109 1/3 innings. His typical 97+ MPH heater sat at a slightly diminished (but still strong) 95.7 MPH this year. Eovaldi has two Tommy John surgeries on his ledger and has some durability question marks, but a strong one-year risk could be palatable for a big-spending team that has virtually no certainty in the rotation. At the same time, the Sox would receive only a compensatory pick after the fourth round if he rejects a QO and departs, thanks to their paying the luxury tax in 2022. That’s of marginal value, so Boston’s only really incentivized to make a QO if they hope he accepts.

Despite playing his home games in one of the league’s more pitcher-friendly environments, Haniger popped 39 home runs in 2021. That was a career-best power spike, but it demonstrated the kind of offensive potential he has when healthy. The right-handed slugger posted well above-average hitting marks in 2017-18 before an average ’19 campaign and a 2020 season wiped out by injury. His 2022 showing was more in the latter bucket, as he lost a chunk of the summer to a high ankle sprain and posted a .246/.308/.429 line in 247 trips to the plate.

Haniger’s a middle-of-the-order caliber bat who plays an adequate corner outfield, and he should find a multi-year deal going into his age-32 campaign if the Mariners don’t make him a QO. On the heels of this platform season, he’d have to seriously consider accepting the QO if offered. Seattle has a fair bit of near-term financial flexibility to make that bet, but they also have a number of in-house outfielders who can step in more affordably if Haniger walks.

The Dodgers rolled the dice on Heaney after a home run-filled 2021 season, signing him for $8.5MM. The southpaw didn’t provide much volume, missing extended stretches of the year fighting shoulder discomfort. When he was healthy enough to take the mound, the 31-year-old was brilliant. Heaney posted a 3.10 ERA and struck out an incredible 35.5% of opposing hitters through 72 2/3 innings. He got a swinging strike on a whopping 16.8% of his offerings, the highest rate of any pitcher with 70+ innings pitched. Heaney put up ace-caliber numbers when he took the hill, but he pitched less than half the season and is only a year removed from a 5.83 ERA over 30 outings with the Angels and Yankees.

Unlike a few other pitchers on this list, one can easily point to a huge change with Heaney that could’ve spurred his breakout. He started throwing a slider for the first time since 2017, turning to it as his go-to secondary offering while ditching his curveball and scaling way back on his changeup usage. The new breaking ball was fantastic, holding opponents to a .170 batting average with one of the highest whiff rates in the league.

That leads to a tough decision for L.A. The Dodgers have shown as much willingness as any team to take short-term risks on high-upside players, including Heaney himself last winter. There’s a difference between an $8.5MM gamble and one pushing $20MM, but he could be next in the line of Kevin Gausman and Carlos Rodón breakout types if he can stay healthy.

A former top prospect, Pérez has bounced around the league but consistently put up below-average results after some early-career success. He returned to his original organization last offseason, inking a $4MM deal with the Rangers after a pair of rough seasons in Boston. That proved to be one of the better buy-low moves of the winter, as Pérez made 32 starts and soaked up 196 1/3 innings. He posted a 2.89 ERA, a top 25 mark among hurlers with 100+ innings. Despite pitching in the majors for over a decade, he’s only entering his age-32 season.

If the Rangers are confident Pérez can come close to replicating his 2022 production, then a QO would be an easy call. Yet it’s fair to wonder how sustainable the southpaw’s success is. He posted an ERA north of 4.00 every year between 2014-21. He didn’t experience any kind of velocity bump, nor did his strikeout and walk profile change. Pérez only punched out 20.6% of opponents on a meager 8.4% swinging strike rate. He did induce ground-balls at a quality 51.4% clip, but he’s previously posted strong grounder rates without finding much success keeping runs off the board. Pérez made some small tweaks to his repertoire, using his sinker more against right-handed batters while leaning a bit more heavily on his cutter against lefties. Without a massive overhaul or velocity spike, though, it’s hard to know how much of his improved results truly represent a step forward.

Rizzo inked a two-year, $32MM guarantee to return to the Yankees in Spring Training. The deal allowed him to opt out of the final $16MM after this season, and the first baseman now looks as if he’ll do so. After a couple fine but unspectacular years, Rizzo bounced back with a 32-homer showing for the first time since 2017. He only hit .224, but that’s largely due to a career-worst .216 batting average on balls in play. Few hitters in baseball were shifted against more often, and the upcoming limitations on shifting should help him find a few more base knocks. Even if the shift ban doesn’t lead to a jump in performance, his .224/.338/.480 mark through 548 plate appearances checked in 32 points above the league average by measure of wRC+.

Heading into his age-33 campaign, Rizzo’s likely limited to two or maybe three-year offers. Those should be at annual rates at least approaching the value of the qualifying offer. It seems unlikely Rizzo would accept a QO. After all, in order to be eligible for the qualifying offer, he’d first have to decline a $16MM salary for next year. Perhaps he’d be content to take the accompanying $3.65MM pay bump before re-testing free agency after 2023, but he’d presumably prefer a new multi-year arrangement. Even if he does accept the QO, the Yankees could find that a reasonable investment, as Rizzo’s high-contact lefty bat plays well in their ballpark and in a lineup that otherwise skews toward the right side.

Taillon has spent the past two years in the Bronx after coming over from the Pirates via trade. New York rolled the dice at the time, surrendering a few solid prospects for a pitcher who’d missed the 2020 season after undergoing the second Tommy John surgery of his career. Taillon rewarded their faith, posting the #3/4 starter-type numbers he had throughout his time in Pittsburgh. Over the past two years, the right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA through 61 starts in a hitter-friendly environment. He’s punched out a slightly below-average 21.9% of opponents but only walked 5.7% of batters faced, holding the opposition to a .242/.290/.426 line.

Heading into his age-31 season, Taillon is one of the better options in a class full of mid-rotation starters. He averages around 94 MPH with his fastball, throws plenty of strikes and has flashed the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground at times in his career. Taillon never became the ace some may have expected when he was drafted second overall back in 2010, but he’s a rock-solid league average starter. Clubs may have some trepidation long-term about the two Tommy John procedures in his past, but the only injured list stint he’s required in the last two years was a two-week absence in September 2021 for an ankle issue. The Yankees do have a number of rotation options, but there’s enough uncertainty with players like Luis Severino, Domingo Germán and Clarke Schmidt they’d seem content to welcome Taillon back if he accepts the QO.

Walker’s going to decline a $6MM player option in favor of a $3MM buyout, leaving the Mets to decide whether to follow up with a QO. Signed over the 2020-21 offseason, the right-hander had a somewhat disappointing first season in Queens, posting a 4.47 ERA. He rebounded with a strong 3.49 mark in 157 1/3 innings this past season, taking the ball 29 times despite a minor early-season IL stint due to shoulder bursitis. He didn’t overpower opponents, striking out a slightly below-average 20.3% of batters faced, but he consistently threw strikes and got ground-balls at an above-average 46.2% clip.

Heading into his age-30 season, Walker looks the part of a useful mid-rotation starter. He battled some injury issues early in his career but has mostly been healthy the last two years. He averages a bit under 94 MPH on his fastball, is effective against hitters from both sides of the plate and is coming off arguably the best season of his career. Walker gives up a decent amount of hard contact, but that’s perhaps not as concerning for a Mets team that plays its home games in a pitcher-friendly ballpark as it would be to some other clubs. The Mets have a number of impending free agents in the rotation and as high a spending ceiling as any team in the game, so they could be content to absorb a heavy one-year salary for Walker.

Longshots

Entering the season, Clevinger looked like one of the higher-upside options in the class. He was coming off a 2021 campaign lost to Tommy John surgery, but he’d been excellent for the Indians and Padres from 2017-20. This year didn’t go well, though. Clevinger’s stuff was notably down from his pre-surgery form, and his results were below-average across the board. He finished the season with two abysmal playoff starts, and the Padres are probably content to let him sign elsewhere.

Eflin had a solid case for a three-year deal midway through the first half. The typically effective right-hander then lost two months with a right knee injury, an unfortunate continuation of knee troubles that have plagued him since before he began his career. Eflin has undergone multiple knee surgeries in the past, and while he didn’t need to go under the knife this year, the absence kept him to working in shorter stints out of the bullpen for the stretch run and the playoffs. Coming off that platform season, it’s hard to see the Phillies offering a salary approaching $20MM.

Kershaw’s an easy QO candidate in a vacuum. He’s still one of the game’s best pitchers on a rate basis, and a $19.65MM salary is a bargain for even the 126 1/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball he gave the Dodgers this past season. Yet that was also true last winter, when the future Hall of Famer was coming off a 3.55 mark across 121 2/3 frames. The Dodgers opted against a QO — not because they were against guaranteeing him a lofty one-year salary, but because they wanted to give Kershaw more than the 10 days allotted to QO recipients to determine his next steps, as president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman later explained. Friedman has already implied they’ll do the same this winter.

San Diego acquired Manaea from the A’s in Spring Training, hoping to solidify an already strong rotation with a durable source of mid-rotation innings. The southpaw mostly delivered on that for the first half, posting a 4.11 ERA through the All-Star Break. His final couple months were a disaster, though. Manaea was barraged for a 6.44 ERA in the second half, coughing up 15 homers along the way. The Friars gave him just one postseason start, and he failed to make it out of the second inning while giving up five runs in a loss to the Phillies. Before these past few months, Manaea had a consistently solid track record, and his 2022 strikeout and walk rates are in line with his career marks. He should be a popular bounceback candidate in free agency, but as with Clevinger, it feels like the Padres are set to move on.

Profar can opt out of the final year and $7.5MM on his deal with San Diego. He’ll do so and beat that modest figure on the heels of a useful .243/.331/.391 showing over 658 plate appearances. Profar has put up slightly above-average offensive numbers in two of the past three seasons, but he’s now limited to left field after throwing issues pushed him off second base. Without much defensive value or a carrying tool at the plate, he’s not going to command a salary approaching the value of the QO in free agency.

Stripling had a strong 2022 season as a swing option for the Blue Jays. He started 24 of 32 appearances, tallying 134 1/3 innings of 3.01 ERA ball. The veteran righty doesn’t throw particularly hard, but he missed bats on a decent 11% of his offerings and only walked 3.7% of opponents. Stripling proved a surprisingly key piece of the Jays starting staff, but he’s headed into his age-33 season and had a ghastly 5.14 ERA from 2020-21. Toronto could well look to bring him back, but his career track record doesn’t support a salary in the QO range.

Wacha put up a 3.32 ERA across 127 1/3 innings for the Red Sox this year, making good after inking a $7MM free agent guarantee. The righty didn’t dramatically overhaul his approach, though, posting lower strikeout and swinging strike numbers than he did during 2020-21 campaigns in which he combined for a 5.39 ERA over 37 outings. Wacha’s a solid strike-thrower and has given himself a shot at a multi-year deal, but it wasn’t the kind of resounding breakout that should position him for a salary pushing $20MM. Even for a Red Sox team that needs to overhaul its rotation, that’d be an eyebrow-raising investment, and it’s hard to imagine Wacha turning the QO down if offered.

Ineligible

All six of these players would’ve been at least plausible qualifying offer candidates, but they’re ineligible to receive one under the terms of the collective bargaining agreement. Teams can’t qualify any player who has previously received a QO in his career, nor are they allowed to tag a player they acquired midseason. The ’previous QO provision’ rules out Abreu, Correa and Verlander; Bell and Benintendi were traded midseason. Syndergaard is ineligible on both accounts.

Which Draft Picks Each Team Would Receive For Losing A Qualified Free Agent

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Earlier today, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes outlined what each team would have to surrender as compensation if it signed a free agent who rejected a qualifying offer.  Now, let’s take a look at what each team would receive in return if one of their free agents turned down a QO and signed with another club.  (As a reminder, players can’t be issued a qualifying offer more than once during their careers, and this year’s QO is set for $19.65MM.)

Revenue Sharing Recipients: Diamondbacks, Orioles, Reds, Guardians, Rockies, Tigers, Royals, Marlins, Brewers, Twins, Athletics, Pirates, Mariners, Rays

If any of these teams has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for more than $50MM in guaranteed money, the compensatory pick falls after the first round of the draft.  That means a pick that could fall within the top 30, since the Mets’ and Dodgers’ first selections dropped out of the first round because they exceeded the luxury tax threshold by more than $40MM.  If a team has a QO-rejecting free agent who signs elsewhere for less than $50MM guaranteed, the compensatory pick would come between Competitive Balance Round B and the start of the third round (roughly 75th-80th overall).

This winter’s free agent class doesn’t consist of many players who are plausible QO candidates from any of these team, except for possibly Mariners outfielder Mitch Haniger.  If Seattle did issue Haniger a qualifying offer, however, the compensation issue might still be a moot point since there is a chance Haniger might just accept the offer (after an injury-shortened season) and remain with the M’s.

Teams Who Don’t Receive Revenue-Sharing Funds, And Who Didn’t Pay The Competitive Balance Tax: Braves, Cubs, White Sox, Astros, Angels, Giants, Cardinals, Rangers, Blue Jays, Nationals

For these teams, the compensatory pick for losing a qualified free agent would also fall between CBR-B and the start of the third round (regardless of whether the player signed for more or less than $50MM).

Dansby Swanson (Braves), Willson Contreras (Cubs), and Carlos Rodon (Giants) will all surely receive qualifying offers.  Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado would’ve also been an obvious pick, except he chose to avoid free agency altogether in deciding to not opt out of his contract.

Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Red Sox, Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Phillies, Padres

If a team exceeds the luxury tax, they still receive a pick if a qualified free agent signed elsewhere, but that compensatory pick falls after the fourth round of the 2023 draft.  That roughly works out to around the 140th overall pick in the draft, so it’s a pretty noteworthy drop from the 75-80 range from the previous grouping.

The penalty is more significant in this particular offseason, given how many of these teams have very prominent free agents that will surely receive qualifying offers.  The Yankees have Aaron Judge, the Dodgers have Trea Turner and maybe Tyler Anderson, the Red Sox have Xander Bogaerts and probably Nathan Eovaldi, and the Mets have a full quartet — Jacob deGrom, Edwin Diaz, Chris Bassitt, and Brandon Nimmo.

Exceeding the tax line can be seen as the cost of doing business, given how five of the six payors made the playoffs and the Phillies are competing for the World Series.  For the Red Sox, however, crossing the CBT threshold is doubly painful, as Boston didn’t even post a winning record in 2022.

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