AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Rivera, Johnson, Andino
The Rays and Red Sox begin a four-game set at Fenway Park tonight that could very well determine the AL Wild Card. Here are some items about both clubs, plus the rest of the AL East…
- Trades and middling draft results have robbed the Red Sox of pitching depth, opines ESPN's Jim Bowden (Insider subscription required). With more good arms in the system, Bowden argues that Boston could have had reinforcements ready to step in when Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz hit the DL, or could've used those young prospects to acquire a more reliable starter than Erik Bedard.
- The Blue Jays will at least check in on Jonathan Papelbon this winter, writes MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm, though Chisholm notes that it isn't Alex Anthopoulos' style to sign relievers to expensive, multiyear contracts. Chisholm also looks at Frank Francisco and Adam Loewen's respective futures in Toronto as part of the mailbag piece — Chisholm thinks Francisco will leave, while Loewen is out of options and will probably only have a spot on the team if the Jays cut Mark Teahen.
- Mariano Rivera is a Yankees legend today, but Wallace Matthews of ESPN New York looks at how 20 years ago, the Sandman wasn't even the most regarded prospect in his own family. "If you turn the clock back and you ask who was the best Rivera in our system, it was Ruben," says Brian Cashman. "Mariano was just known as Ruben’s cousin.''
- Writing for USA Today, Patrick DiCaprio looks at how Orioles reliever Jim Johnson fits the prototype of a closer. Johnson could very well finish games next season given that Baltimore seems to have lost patience with Kevin Gregg, though we've also heard that the O's have explored converting Johnson to a starter. You can keep track of Baltimore's late-game situation all winter long at MLBTR's sister site, Closer News.
- Robert Andino has finally gotten the chance to show he belongs in the Majors, writes Brittany Ghiroli for MLB.com. The versatile infielder has definitely earned a roster spot with the Orioles for next year.
- The Rays' somewhat surprising performance in 2011 makes it clear that they will be contenders again in 2012 and possibly for years to come, writes Rob Neyer.
Jacoby Ellsbury’s Arbitration Case
A year ago, Jacoby Ellsbury had nearly as many trips to the disabled list (three) as he did extra base hits (four), which tells you much of what you need to know about his season. It’s hard to imagine a more complete turnaround for the 28-year-old, who might be the American League’s MVP in 2011.
The increase in productivity foreshadows an offseason raise for Ellsbury, who will be arbitration eligible for the second time after the season. He earns $2.4MM this year and, as you might imagine, stands to earn much more through arbitration in 2012 and 2013 before hitting free agency after the ’13 campaign.
How much more? Let’s start by examining the case of Hunter Pence, a similar player who’s ahead of Ellsbury in terms of service time. Pence earned a $3.4MM raise last offseason after putting together a solid season in 2010.
Two weeks' worth of games remain this year, yet it’s already clear that Ellsbury’s platform season blows Pence’s away (see note 1). From a career standpoint, Ellsbury is comparable to where Pence was a year ago (see note 2).
With far better platform numbers and comparable career numbers, it won’t be hard for agent Scott Boras to argue that Ellsbury deserves a raise that exceeds the $3.4MM boost Pence obtained a year ago. In that sense, Pence’s raise is a springboard for Ellsbury.
Our latest projections have Ellsbury making $6.8MM next season, which would represent a $4.4MM raise (though it would fall short of Pence’s current $6.9MM salary). Ellsbury could earn significantly more than $6.8MM if he brings in lots of offseason hardware and no award would affect his bank account like the MVP.
Last year’s winner, Josh Hamilton, did not end up going to arbitration, but we have a sense of how his hearing would have gone from the numbers filed by his agency and the Rangers. Boras, who will no doubt mention Hamilton, will be careful in bringing filing numbers up, since arbitrators view them differently than actual, agreed upon salaries (see note 3). Hamilton filed for $12MM last year and the Rangers countered at $8.7MM, conceding that Hamilton’s MVP season had earned him a raise of at least $5.45MM (see note 4).
Jose Bautista, who emerged as one of the game’s best players last year, earned $2.4MM during his breakout year – exactly what Ellsbury earns this year. Like Hamilton, Bautista signed an extension before going to an arbitration hearing, though he completed the deal after the Blue Jays offered $7.6MM in arbitration. In other words, the Dominican slugger was headed for a worst-case-scenario raise of $5.2MM.
Hamilton and Bautista showed that players can overcome low career totals in arbitration with a huge platform year, but Ellsbury’s history won’t be forgotten. The Red Sox could point out Ellsbury’s shortcomings when it comes to length and consistency of career contribution if the sides go to a hearing.
He was limited to 18 games last year after fracturing his ribs in an April collision with Adrian Beltre and had three separate stints on the disabled list. While Boras might argue that the injury was fluky and doesn’t present long-term concerns, he wouldn’t debate that it will limit his client’s negotiating power (see note 5).
To match the raises Texas and Toronto offered their respective stars last winter, Boston would have to offer a 2012 salary in the $7.5-8MM range. Boras, of course, could file for considerably more. It’s early and Ellsbury’s earning potential depends on the season’s final two weeks, the playoffs and postseason award voting. Even at this point, we can safely say that he’s headed for a salary that exceeds $6MM. Millions more than that are within Ellsbury's grasp, not that the Red Sox are complaining.
Notes:
1 – Ellsbury already has more homers (27 vs. 25), more RBI (94 vs. 91), more runs (109 vs. 93), more stolen bases (36 vs. 18) a higher average (.320 vs .282), a better on-base percentage (.379 vs. .325) and a better slugging percentage (.544 vs. .461) than Pence posted in 2010. Ellsbury was an All-Star (Pence was not) and will collect MVP votes (Pence did not).
2 – Both have a third-place finish in Rookie of the Year voting and one All-Star selection. Pence had more homers (92 vs. 47), RBI (315 vs. 224) and a better slugging percentage (.481 vs. .446). Ellsbury has more runs (330 vs. 304), more stolen bases (172 vs. 54) a higher average (.300 vs. .287) and a better on-base percentage (.355 vs. .336). It’s also worth noting that Ellsbury has 22 games of postseason experience (.261/.316/.391 line with 5 steals) and a World Series ring, while Pence has never appeared in the playoffs.
3 – Similarly, the Red Sox have to be careful about pointing to the salaries Hamilton ($7.25MM) and Jose Bautista ($8MM) are earning in 2011, since the salaries are part of carefully structured mutliyear deals.
4 – Hamilton won a batting title and led the league in slugging percentage and OPS, but Ellsbury doesn’t lead the league in any traditional stats (he leads all of baseball in FanGraphs’ version of wins above replacement – not that there’s precedent for WAR convincing panels of arbitrators).
5 – If Ellsbury signs an extension – the Red Sox would like to lock him up – the discussion shifts once again, since the sides would have to value multiple future seasons instead of just one. It’s early but MLBTR projects that Ellsbury's salary could rise as high as $13MM in 2013, his last year before hitting the open market.
Photo courtesy Icon SMI. Matt Swartz contributed analysis to this post.
AL East Notes: Blue Jays, Orioles, Youkilis
Links from the AL East, on a night that the Rays are taking on the Orioles and rooting hard for the Blue Jays to defeat the Red Sox. The latest links from their division…
- The Blue Jays and Orioles aren’t in the pennant race, but there’s lots of intrigue in Toronto and Baltimore as the season winds down, Tyler Kepner of the New York Times writes.
- Within the piece (which is well worth your time) Kepner notes that the Blue Jays plan to offer arbitration to Kelly Johnson after the season and hears that Jeremy Guthrie would like to pitch 1,000 more Major League innings.
- Johnson, who has a .210/.290/.408 line in 555 plate appearances with the D'Backs and Blue Jays, projects as a Type A free agent in the American League, according to our latest rankings. I won't be surprised if he accepts arbitration, but there are no guarantees for the Blue Jays since this year's class of free agent second basemen isn't strong.
- Kevin Youkilis of the Red Sox will play out the 2011 season and will likely undergo offseason surgery for a hernia, as Alex Speier writes at WEEI.com.
Red Sox Designate Nate Spears For Assignment
The Red Sox announced that they designated Nate Spears for assignment to create 40-man roster space for Joey Gathright and Trever Miller. They transferred J.D. Drew to the 60-day disabled list in a corresponding move.
Spears, 26, appeared in three games for the Red Sox this season, but spent most of the season at Triple-A. He posted a .248/.355/.397 line at Pawtucket, where he played all four infield positions and both corner outfield positions. The Orioles selected the left-handed hitter in the fifth round of the 2003 draft.
Quick Hits: McCutchen, Upton, Cameron
15 years ago today, the Mariners' acquisition of third baseman Dave Hollins was completed when they sent a 20-year-old first baseman named David Ortiz Arias to the Twins. Arias had just hit .322/.390/.511 for the Low-A Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. By the following year Ortiz had dropped the Arias in his name and earned a September call-up. Ortiz posted a .266/.348/.461 line in 455 games spanning 1997-2002 with Minnesota, battling wrist and knee injuries. After the '02 season the Blue Jays reportedly expressed interest in Ortiz, but ultimately the Twins non-tendered him in lieu of a raise from his $950K salary. New Red Sox GM Theo Epstein signed Big Papi for $1.25MM, and the rest is history. Today's links…
- The Pirates are far apart in contract talks with Andrew McCutchen, reports ESPN's Jim Bowden. Bowden feels that a six-year deal in the $47-49MM range, plus a club option, would be a fair compromise. In my opinion, there's a good case to be made for a McCutchen contract to exceed the $51.25MM Justin Upton received over six years in March of 2010. McCutchen has played in over 100 more games than Upton had at that point, their offensive lines are very similar, and McCutchen plays center field.
- ESPN's Keith Law discusses MLB's European presence and what must be done for further growth.
- Answering a question from Craig Heist of WTOP about playing in Washington, Rays center fielder B.J. Upton said he'd love to remain in Tampa Bay but otherwise would like to play for the Nationals with old friend Ryan Zimmerman. You can follow Craig on Twitter here; MLB.com's Bill Ladson transcribed the discussion. Upton is heading into his last arbitration year and projects for a $7MM salary.
- MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo names 20 young, next generation GM candidates. To check out MLBTR's top 20 plus honorable mentions, click here.
- Mike Cameron was consistently one of the best players in baseball when he was on the field, writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs.
- The Orioles will try Chris Davis at third base for the rest of the season, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun. The 25-year-old was a key piece of the July 30th Koji Uehara trade with Texas. With Mark Reynolds getting comfortable at first base, it's conceivable that the Orioles will sit out the corner infielder bidding this winter.
- Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports chronicles how Joey Gathright went from being managed by Jose Canseco as a member of the independent league Yuma Scorpions to a minor league deal with the Red Sox.
Epstein On Papelbon, Ortiz, Millwood
The Red Sox have dropped five in a row, and GM Theo Epstein joined WEEI's Dennis & Callahan show today to offer his take. A few highlights:
- Epstein hasn't ruled out outside acquisitions, but internal solutions are much preferred.
- "There's never been a lack of interest" in keeping closer Jonathan Papelbon in Boston. Added Epstein, "I have to think there’s a lot of mutual interest in continuing the relationship." Papelbon is eligible for free agency after the season, having earned $27.6MM over his three arbitration years.
- The Red Sox are "obviously" interested in having designated hitter David Ortiz back, but Epstein says now is not the time to talk about that stuff.
- The GM's thoughts on having Kevin Millwood in the organization: "At the time, we had guys ahead of him. His stuff, in our judgment and the judgment of our Triple-A staff, it wasn’t going to play at the major league level here for the Red Sox above the other options that we had." The 36-year-old veteran has since posted a 3.79 ERA in six starts for the Rockies.
Quick Hits: Red Sox, Dodgers, Peavy, Bauer
Sunday night linkage..
- Buster Olney of ESPN.com (via Twitter) wonders if the Red Sox might pursue pitching for the final stretch, even though anyone acquired wouldn't be eligible for the postseason.
- Surprisingly, patience seems to be the new trend in baseball when it comes to GMs, writes Danny Knobler of CBSSports.com. This morning, the Pirates announced that they have extended GM Neal Huntington's contract through 2014.
- Dodgers GM Ned Colletti said yesterday that the club won't undergo any major changes this winter and Steve Dilbeck of the Los Angeles Times is less-than-enthused.
- The White Sox are shutting down starter Jake Peavy in hopes that rest will help the 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner return to full strength next year, according to the Associated Press. Peavy underwent shoulder surgery on July 14, 2010 and the right-hander posted a 4.92 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9.
- The Diamondbacks might promote top prospects Trevor Bauer and Jarrod Parker to experience the playoff race as they prepare for 2012, tweets Peter Gammons of the MLB Network.
AL East Notes: Ellsbury, Yankees, Gregg
This weekend's series between the Rays and Red Sox has made things a little more interesting in the AL East. With another win today, Tampa Bay would pull to within 3 1/2 games of the second-place Red Sox. Both teams have only intra-division games left on the schedule, including four more against each other next weekend. Here's a round-up of the morning's AL East links, as Jon Lester and James Shields prepare to square off in St. Petersburg:
- Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald discusses the upcoming arbitration case for Jacoby Ellsbury, who is putting up MVP-caliber numbers while earning $2.4MM this season. As Lauber writes, it's not easy to find appropriate comparables for the Red Sox outfielder. Lauber cites Andruw Jones, Hunter Pence, and Carlos Beltran as some names that could come up during negotiations. Last month, MLBTR's Tim Dierkes explained that Ellsbury's salary should exceed $6MM.
- Joel Sherman of the New York Post praises the Yankees' bench, pointing out that the club's depth is one reason for its AL East lead. GM Brian Cashman noted that the Yanks weren't desperate for reinforcements at the trade deadline this year: "We did our trade deadline deals in the winter. Our supplemental moves kept us from having to trade assets in July for answers."
- The Orioles can't go into next season with Kevin Gregg as their closer, argues MASN's Steve Melewski. The right-hander is under contract for 2012 ($5.8MM), but has been inconsistent at the back of Baltimore's bullpen this year, posting a 4.45 ERA and 6.3 BB/9. Another reason why the O's may want to keep Gregg away from the ninth inning next season? He has a $6MM option for 2013 that would vest if he finishes 50 games in 2012. As the team's closer this season, he has just 43 games finished, but he recorded more than 50 in each of his previous four seasons.
- For the latest updates on the Orioles closing situation, along with 29 others, be sure to follow @closernews on Twitter or visit CloserNews.com.
Cafardo’s Latest: Epstein, Nationals, Ethier, D. Lee
With October fast approaching, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe polled experts around the league on the relative strength of the potential playoff teams. As expected, the Phillies topped the list, but the experts' choice for the second-best team may surprise you. Check out Cafardo's piece for the full rankings, along with quotes on each club, as we run down the hot stove highlights from the rest of the column:
- The "baseball community has not dropped" rumors that Theo Epstein could be in the mix for the Cubs' GM opening, says Cafardo. I'd be pretty shocked if Epstein ended up in the Windy City, but if he did, Boston's search for a replacement would probably have them considering many of the same candidates being linked to the Cubs.
- League rules require the Nationals to conduct a managerial search that includes minority candidates this offseason. However, that process may be merely a formality; the team seems very likely to simply retain Davey Johnson for 2012, if he wants to return.
- While GM Ned Colletti has said the Dodgers are prioritizing long-term deals for Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier, the Dodgers' financial situation isn't entirely clear, leading Cafardo to speculate that Ethier will be a trade candidate this winter.
- As we heard last weekend, Clint Hurdle would like to see Derrek Lee in a Pirates uniform next season. Michael Sanserino of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette has more on that possibility.
Quick Hits: Red Sox, Iannetta, Santana, Willis
Joey Votto celebrated his 28th birthday with a 3-for-4 performance today against the Rockies, including his 27th homer of the year. It wasn't enough, however, as Cincinnati dropped a 12-7 result to Colorado.
Some notes from around the majors….
- The Red Sox could use another solid starting pitcher but "for the moment don't feel there's anyone out there available who's better than what they have," a team official tells Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe.
- The Rockies will give catcher Wilin Rosario a lot of playing time this month as they decide what to do with Chris Iannetta this winter, reports Troy Renck of the Denver Post. If Rosario plays well, Colorado may decide to deal Iannetta, who's due to make $3.55MM in 2012. Iannetta's name was mentioned in trade rumors involving the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Pirates and Padres at the July deadline.
- Johan Santana will probably not pitch in the Major Leagues for the Mets this season, reports Anthony DiComo for MLB.com.
- Dontrelle Willis probably won't be back with the Reds next season, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Willis has re-established himself as a big league starter this year but Fay figures that this progress has likely priced the southpaw out of the Reds' range.
- Another Red who likely won't be back in Cincinnati next year is Paul Janish, opines Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News. Despite some excellent glovework (a +11.6 UZR/150 at shortstop this year), Janish will be eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter and is probably a non-tender candidate with Zack Cozart taking over at short.
- Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune says several American League scouts have asked him about Jesus Guzman's fielding ability in recent weeks, a sign that AL teams could have an interest in Guzman as a DH candidate. Center discusses Guzman, Bud Black's status, a possible extension for Cameron Maybin and other Padres-related topics in an online chat with fans.
- Andruw Jones has been playing all season with a small tear in his left knee, reports Marc Carig of the Star-Ledger. The Yankees discovered the injury during Jones' physical but signed the veteran outfielder anyway (both Twitter links).