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Diamondbacks Notes: Lackey, Shipley, Souza

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The Diamondbacks made a minor league offer to right-hander John Lackey this offseason, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, but the veteran righty passed on the opportunity. Coincidentally, Lackey’s friend and former teammate, Clay Buchholz, ultimately wound up in the D-backs organization on a similar deal and is now thriving in a rotation that has been hit hard by injuries. “I don’t bring that up to him now,” joked Buchholz, who still keeps in touch with Lackey, “because he’s a lot bigger than me. I don’t want to make him mad. But Lackey is a bulldog. I fully expect him to be with some club at some point this year. I know for a fact that he still works out and keeps his body ready.” Both Lackey and Buchholz, of course, are known commodities to D-backs GM Mike Hazen and assistant GMs Amiel Sawdaye and Jared Porter, each of whom has previously worked in the Boston front office.

More out of Arizona…

  • Braden Shipley is being asked to work as a reliever for the time being, writes Zach Buchanan of The Athletic (subscription link), but the organization hasn’t closed the door on him as a rotation option. Shipley had actually been set to step into the rotation last month when an elbow injury sent him to the disabled list. In the interim, Buccholz stepped up and seized that spot, however. Shipley acknowledged some frustration at how the scenario unfolded, though he took a positive approach to his new role, viewing it as a chance to ease up on his arm and get some experience at the big league level before hopefully getting another starting opportunity down the line. A former first-round pick, Shipley has just a 5.23 ERA in 98 Major League innings, though the 26-year-old is still just two years removed from ranking among the game’s top 100 prospects and could yet thrive in the big leagues — especially in a new role.
  • Steven Souza Jr. began a throwing program Wednesday as he works back from a recurrence of the pectoral injury he incurred during Spring Training, writes Katherine Fitzgerald of the Arizona Republic. Souza threw from 45 feet today and will play catch again Friday before a Monday MRI to determine the progress he’s made in his recovery. He’ll return to a different outfield mix than the one he left, of course, as the Snakes have since acquired Jon Jay in a trade with the Royals. The presence of Souza, Jay, David Peralta, Jarrod Dyson, Chris Owings and, eventually, a healthy A.J. Pollock will lead to some decisions for the D-backs, although that’s a theoretical situation that may or may not present itself, depending on the health of that group as a whole.

Diamondbacks Expect Increased Trade Interest In Young Arms

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Following their acquisition of Taijuan Walker from the Mariners last week, the Diamondbacks are expecting to receive increased interest in their stable of controllable starters, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). As Rosenthal points out, each of Walker, Robbie Ray, Shelby Miller, Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley is between the ages of 24 and 26 and comes with at least three remaining years of clubs control. Patrick Corbin, meanwhile, is just 27 and has two years of control remaining.

[Related: Arizona Diamondbacks Depth Chart]

The D-backs figure to enter the 2017 season with a rotation consisting of Zack Greinke, Ray, Corbin, Walker and Miller, and it indeed seems not just conceivable but likely that their supply of intriguing young arms would draw interest from rival teams in an offseason where any type of quality starting pitching is in short supply.

Miller, who turned 26 in October, is perhaps the most obvious change-of-scenery candidate following a disastrous first season in Arizona that resulted in a 6.15 ERA across 101 Major League innings. After being acquired in the much-maligned trade that sent Dansby Swanson, Ender Inciarte and Aaron Blair to the Braves last winter, Miller pitched poorly enough in 2016 to merit a demotion to the minors. The small silver lining for the D-backs (and for interested teams) is that the demotion delayed Miller’s free agency by a year, so any team picking him up could still control him through arbitration for three more years. Miller is just a season removed from a 3.02 ERA with 7.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 and a 47.7 percent ground-ball rate in 2015 innings (with the Braves), but ownership has already reportedly intervened on one potential trade and may not want to green-light an offseason deal just a year after surrendering so much to acquire him.

Ray, 25, is the most appealing trade candidate of the bunch from my vantage point but could also be the most difficult to surrender. Though he’s already been traded twice in his career and is coming off a lackluster 4.90 ERA in 174 1/3 innings with Arizona this past season, he made several intriguing gains in 2016. Ray’s average fastball velocity trended up to 94.1 mph last year, and he posted a career-best 45.7 percent ground-ball rate. Most impressively, he averaged a hefty 11.3 K/9 that rated second in the Majors among qualified starters. Metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all peg Ray for a mid-3.00s ERA, and he had some poor fortune in terms of balls in play (.352 BABIP) and home-run rate (15.5 HR/FB). Certainly, he needs some work — his control, for instance, could stand to improve — but the makings of a very good young starter are present.

Corbin once looked like a budding front-line starter for the Snakes but underwent Tommy John surgery that cost him all of the 2014 season. He showed promise with a 3.60 ERA in 85 innings upon his return in 2015, but the 2016 campaign was a dismal one. Though he totaled 155 2/3 innings, Corbin recorded just a 5.15 ERA as his strikeout, walk and home run rates all trended in the wrong direction, as did his velocity. If there’s a silver lining on his season, it’s that he not only stayed healthy but also posted a career-best 53.8 percent ground-ball rate.

Bradley and Shipley, as it stands, could be on the outside looking in when it comes to the rotation picture. Each is a 24-year-old former first-round pick (Bradley seventh overall in 2011, Shipley 15th in 2013) that has a bit of MLB experience but has yet to cement himself as a viable rotation option. Bradley struck out more than a batter per inning in 2016 (143 in 141 2/3 frames) but, like Ray, struggled with his control (4.1 BB/9). Like many other D-backs starters, Bradley’s BABIP (.338) was well above the league norm due at least in part to the team’s porous defense. With five years of team control remaining, though, Bradley should pique the interest of any team looking to add long-term rotation help despite the 5.18 ERA he carries through 177 1/3 big league innings.

Shipley, meanwhile, comes with the greatest amount of club control of any of the listed starters. He didn’t reach a full year of service in 2016, so he’d be controllable through at least the 2022 campaign. Shipley posted a 5.27 ERA across 70 innings last year, but his lack of missed bats proved problematic. That’s been a continuing problem for Shipley throughout his pro career, as his K/9 has been moving in the wrong direction as he’s ascended through the minors. Shipley logged a 3.70 ERA with 5.8 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and a 46.6 percent grounder rate in a ridiculously hitter-friendly environment with Arizona’s Reno affiliate in the Triple-A Pacific Coast League, but he punched out just 5.5 hitters per nine in the Majors against 3.6 BB/9. He wasn’t able to get batters to chase outside the zone at even a league-average rate, and when he did, hitters made contact at a rate that was significantly above the mean rate for the league. Certainly, there’s appeal to a former first-rounder/top 100 prospect that reached the Majors as a 24-year-old, but Shipley likely could use some additional minor league refinement.

Of course, the D-backs needn’t shop any of their young arms around aggressively. All of the pitchers listed here have minor league options remaining and could be sent down to open the 2017 season depending on how things play out in Spring Training. Possessing sufficient, even potentially excessive depth in the rotation is never a bad thing for a team (and the D-backs aren’t exactly at a point of excess given the uncertainties up and down their staff), as injuries are bound to arise over the course of a season. And with the exception of Greinke, the financial motivation to move any of the team’s starters is virtually nonexistent. That each of these pitchers represents somewhat of a buy-low commodity might make it difficult for new GM Mike Hazen and his staff to extract fair value, but the parade of 5.00-ish ERAs delivered by this group shouldn’t suppress interest all that much on the trade market.

Diamondbacks To Promote Braden Shipley

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The Diamondbacks are calling up well-regarded pitching prospect Braden Shipley from Triple-A Reno to start Monday against Milwaukee, according to ESPN.com.

Shipley, 24, has been a member of the Arizona organization since it selected him 15th overall in the 2013 amateur draft. Baseball America ranked the right-hander as the 26th-best prospect in baseball after the 2014 campaign, but he fell to 77th following last season. BA noted then (subscription required and recommended) that Shipley struggled with mechanics and consistency issues with his breaking ball in the first half of 2015 with Double-A Mobile. But Shipley still produced quality results last season, especially in the second half, and BA lauded his ability to maintain his arm speed and hit 93 to 96 mph on the radar gun with his fastball. Shipley also possesses a plus, hard-to-identify curveball that sits around 84 mph and a solid changeup that ranges from 83 to 85 mph. Additionally, his athleticism and background as a shortstop – where he played early on at the University of Nevada before turning his focus to pitching – make him a formidable fielder. With all of that considered, at the end of last season, BA regarded Shipley as a potential No. 3 starter in the majors. Given that he has since risen in the outlet’s rankings, the same likely holds true now. MLB.com is also bullish on Shipley, placing him 58th in its prospect rankings and offering a scouting report similar to BA’s.

In the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League this season, Shipley has recorded a 3.70 ERA, 5.81 K/9 and 1.66 BB/9 over 119 1/3 innings. He’ll hope to match or better those numbers with last-place Arizona, whose rotation has been among the majors’ worst this year. Two of their starters, ace Zack Greinke and Rubby De La Rosa, have been on the disabled list for extended periods of time. Meanwhile, high-profile offseason pickup Shelby Miller is in Reno after performing horribly during the first few months of the season and might not last much longer with the organization.

If Shipley takes advantage of his opportunity and stays in the majors for the rest of the year, he’ll fall short of Super Two status. The maximum 2016 service time Shipley can accrue at this point is 70 days. He’ll be eligible for arbitration after the 2019 campaign and under team control through 2022 if he remains in Arizona for the remainder of the season.

Latest On Aroldis Chapman

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The Reds are listening on flamethrowing closer Aroldis Chapman, an All-Star in each of the last four seasons.  The 27-year-old is under team control through 2016.  The latest:

  • A source tells Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle that the Astros are more likely to make a deal with the Reds than the Yankees (Twitter link).
  • The Diamondbacks say their talks with the Reds for Chapman are now completely dead, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
  • It looks like the Diamondbacks are no longer in on Chapman, tweets MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert.

Earlier Updates

  • Arizona’s offer for Chapman includes pitching prospect Braden Shipley and one or two more of their top ten, tweets Nightengale.
  • Nightengale says the Reds’ price tag on Chapman is high, but five teams are involved, three seriously.  He feels someone will meet the Reds’ demands.
  • The Reds now have stronger offers for Chapman than the one made by the Diamondbacks, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today, and Arizona is considered a long shot to acquire him.  Jon Heyman of CBS Sports notes that while the Yankees have checked in, that’s not likely to happen either.  The Astros are another club that has been linked to Chapman, tweets Heyman.   Their interest goes to the ownership level, he adds.

D’backs Unwilling To Trade Miley, Owings, Pollock, Others

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The Diamondbacks have been receiving interest in left-hander Wade Miley, but are telling interested parties that he is unavailable, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). Some had speculated that Miley could fetch a nice return as an under-the-radar trade candidate, but given his long-term control (through 2017), it appears that Arizona will likely resist the temptation.

Other players the D’Backs aren’t willing to move, according to Rosenthal (Twitter links), include Chris Owings, A.J. Pollock, Paul Goldschmidt, Patrick Corbin, Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley. Even veteran setup man Brad Ziegler is likely unavailable, per Rosenthal’s sources. Rosenthal offers a somewhat softer take on Mark Trumbo’s availability, stating that a trade is “unlikely.” Trumbo is controlled through the 2016 season, Rosenthal notes, and Arizona would be hard-pressed to get near the same value they surrendered to acquire the slugger in the offseason.

All said, it is not surprising that Arizona would be unwilling to part with most of the players listed above, especially the younger players who are now (or are expected soon to be) playing at the MLB level. While Trumbo comes with just two years of control remaining, his long injury layoff will at least suppress his salary somewhat. And Arizona will surely be hesitant to move him for a cut rate after parting with both Adam Eaton and Tyler Skaggs for his rights over the offseason.

Ziegler’s inclusion, though, is a bit surprising at first glance. The righty has been consistently excellent, of course — and has even managed to increase his strikeout numbers this year to a far-and-away career best of 8.0 K/9 — but at 34 years of age he is probably not a long-term asset. (He is, however, under contract for next season at $5MM and is under control through a $5.5MM team option, which comes with a $1MM buyout, for 2016.)

Jeff Todd contributed to this post.

Diamondbacks Sign Braden Shipley

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The Diamondbacks have signed first-rounder Braden Shipley for an under-slot $2.25MM signing bonus, according to Jim Callis of Baseball America (on Twitter). The assigned pick value to the No. 15 selection was $2,434,500, according to BA, so the D-backs managed to save about $185K despite getting Shipley much later than most expected him to go. Shipley is advised by Adam Karon and Tripper Johnson of Sosnick & Cobbe.

Shipley was a consensus top 10 talent among ESPN's Keith Law (No. 6), Baseball America (No. 8) and MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo (No. 9), so it was surprising that he was on the board for the D-backs with the 15th overall selection. The big right-hander out of Nevada works at 93-95 mph but touches 98 with his heater and has a hard curveball, according to Callis.

Law called Shipley's 83-86 mph changeup his best pitch, but also noted that he's seen Shipley clocked as high as 99 mph with his fastball and added that the Wolf Pack ace features an average curveball.

Shipley becomes the 21st first-round selection from this year's draft to agree to terms or officially sign with his new team. The Diamondbacks have selected a college pitcher with three of their past four first-round picks, also grabbing UCLA's Trevor Bauer and Texas A&M's Barret Loux.

Twins Notes: Draft, International Free Agents

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Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN has a tremendous amount of information on the upcoming MLB draft in the most recent edition of his weekly "Scoops" column. Here are some highlights from his highly informative piece (though there is much more to see in the full column)…

  • Twins VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff spoke with Wolfson at length Wednesday afternoon and said that the team's draft board for the No. 4 overall pick is down to four players: "We have enough guys we have no problem taking," Radcliff said. "Dollars, risk, creativity, we can go many ways."
  • Wolfson adds that at least one of the potential players would be someone the Twins could sign well below slot value, in order to spend more heavily on their second- and third-round picks. He adds that that player is likely high school catcher Reese McGuire, as has been rumored occasionally over the past few weeks. Asked about McGuire, Radcliff side-stepped the question a bit: "Well, we want a catcher every draft," he said. "Looking for a star catcher is the hardest thing to find."
  • The Twins have had a scout in attendance to see "every pitch" from Kohl Stewart over the past couple of years. Radcliff and scouting director Deron Johnson have seen him multiple times.
  • The Twins have a great relationship with Matt Sosnick and Adam Karon, who are advising McGuire and Nevada right-hander Braden Shipley. They're believed to be more interested in McGuire than Shipley. Sosnick, the agent for current Twins Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit, also advises high school arms Matt Krook and Andrew Church, plus San Francisco right-hander Alex Balog and Cal infielder Andrew Knapp. Each of those prospects ranks in the Top 100, per Baseball America.
  • Johnson has seen Arkansas righty Ryne Stanek numerous times, and the Twins have done more work on him than any team in this year's top 10.
  • High school lefty Hunter Green, who ranks as the draft's No. 31 prospect (per BA), is among the prospects who will attend a workout for the Twins on Monday. High school outfielder Austin Meadows did not attend a recent workout the team held for Georgia-area prospects.
  • The Twins aren't likely to pursue Minnesota high school outfielder Ryan Boldt with their second pick (No. 43). They will look at another hometown product in Gophers lefty Tom Windle at that spot, however. Boldt was considered a first-round talent before a meniscus tear ended his season. He hopes to be ready to play by August. 
  • The Twins have the fourth-largest pool to sign international prospects this year, and Radcliff says they will be "major players" in this year's market. Wolfson adds that the Twins very much like Dominican outfielder Lewin Diaz.
  • The team didn't have scouts in attendance to watch Japanese hurlers Shohei Otani and Masahiro Tanaka in Japan this past week.

Draft Notes: Appel, Gray, Shipley, Manaea, Stanek

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The Astros, Cubs, and Rockies have the first three picks in the 2013 amateur draft, which takes place Thursday, June 6th.  Draft gurus expect college righties Mark Appel and Jonathan Gray and college third baseman Kris Bryant to go within those first three picks, though the order seems tough to pin down at this point.  The latest on the draft:

  • Conor Glassey of Baseball America takes a look at the age spectrum among this year's BA Top 250 by splitting the list into high school and college players and examining the youngest and oldest in each group.
  • Baseball America's Jim Callis asked four "top-level scouting executives" whether they preferred Appel or Gray.  Three of them chose Appel, though it was interesting to hear that two of them questioned his makeup.
  • MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo talked to Nevada righty Braden Shipley, a converted shortstop.  ESPN's Keith Law ranks Shipley the No. 6 talent in the draft, and predicted the Marlins will indeed take him in that sixth spot.  Baseball America ranks him eighth, and predicted he'd go fifth to the Indians.  Mayo went with eighth to the Royals.
  • Mayo also writes that Shipley has elevated his stock thanks to consistent performance this season, while Indiana State lefty Sean Manaea and Arkansas right-hander Ryne Stanek have seen their stocks fall. Manaea has been bothered by a hip issue that has led to diminished results, while Stanek has had an up-and-down season as well. A scouting director told Mayo that he thinks Stanek will be the third pitcher selected in the draft. The upcoming conference tournaments will serve as a showcase for these college arms to gain some last-minute draft helium.

Steve Adams contributed to this post.

Draft Notes: Marlins, Rockies, Bryant, Padres

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The new draft slotting system essentially allows teams to "trade down" with themselves, writes Dave Cameron of Fangraphs. Cameron uses the Astros' selection of Carlos Correa last year as an example, stating that by saving money on the No. 1 overall pick and re-investing their draft pool later on Lance McCullers Jr. and Rio Ruiz, the team employed the same philosophy that NFL and NBA teams do when they trade down: increase the quantity of good talent rather than focus on one elite player. Cameron adds that such a tactic is highly risky, as the No. 1 overall slot has produced significantly more value (in terms of WAR) than even the No. 2 and No. 3 spots in the draft, historically speaking. He does concede that in years without a consensus No. 1 talent, the strategy can make a lot of sense. Here are Wednesday's draft-related tidbits…

  • The Marlins are likely to focus on college players early on, specifically position players, writes Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald. Spencer writes that the Fish will likely select San Diego third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant or UNC third baseman Colin Moran if either is available at No. 6. If both are gone, they could shift to Nevada right-hander Braden Shipley and target a bat later on.
  • The Rockies are also eyeing Kris Bryant at the No. 3 spot, tweets Troy Renck of the Denver Post. Bryant, regarded as the most powerful bat in the draft, has been popping up in rumors more and more as the draft nears. Some feel he has No. 1 overall potential.
  • After focusing heavily on high school pitching in last year's draft, the Padres are likely to focus on bats, assistant GM of player personnel Chad MacDonald tells Chris Jenkins of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Particularly, the Friars will be looking for middle infield help.
  • MacDonald has scouted prep right-hander Kohl Stewart, and the Padres are enamored with his "electric" talent, but he's very unlikely to be on the board by the No. 13 selection. "He's the best high school arm in the country," said MacDonald.

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