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Quick Hits: Ichiro, Orioles, Duffy, Twins

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Ichiro Suzuki’s agent, John Boggs, tells Barry Bloom of MLB.com that he’s still holding out hope that the 44-year-old will land an offer from a big league club this offseason rather than return to Japan. Boggs had talks with both the Mariners and Padres, but neither of those now looks likely to come to fruition. He also notes that he’d spoken to the Mets before they signed Jay Bruce, as well as the Reds when they were more heavily exploring the market for Billy Hamilton. Boggs tells Bloom that there are still a half-dozen teams that continue to tell him to check back later in the winter once it’s clearer how the market will play out, but it remains unclear whether Ichiro will have a legitimate opportunity to return for an 18th Major League season.

A few other notes as another quiet week of free agency nears its conclusion…

  • Though the stagnant offseason has been frustrating across the board, it may be particularly exhausting for Orioles fans, as the club is known to be looking for two or three starters, an outfielder, a utility infielder and some catching depth. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com writes that all of that is still in the works, and he spoke with manager Buck Showalter about the team’s offseason pursuits at length. Showalter suggests that the O’s are “down the road real deep on a lot of guys,” adding that GM Dan Duquette has discussed “offers and physicals” with one particular right field target. Showalter adds that a Chris Tillman reunion remains possible. The free agent has been working out at the Orioles’ spring complex in Sarasota, Fla. — a favor granted by the team to their longtime rotation stalwart.
  • Royals left-hander Danny Duffy has pleaded guilty to driving under the influence after initially filing a plea of not guilty upon being cited for a DUI last August, according to the Kansas City Star’s Rustin Dodd. The 29-year-old has been placed on probation and must refrain from drinking and using illegal drugs over the course of a one-year term. He’ll be subject to random breath, blood and urine tests as part of his probation, Dodd adds.
  • The Twins have hired three-time All-Star Jim Kaat as a special assistant in their front office, the team announced. The 79-year-old Kaat enjoyed an excellent 25-year career, starring for the Senators/Twins franchise in 15 of those seasons (3.34 ERA, 133 complete games, 23 shutouts over the life of 3014 1/3 innings). He joins Twins legends Rod Carew, Tony Oliva, Tom Kelly and Kent Hrbek in a role that will see him “engage in various Twins community and business initiatives both in Minnesota as well as Southwest Florida,” per the Twins’ press release announcing the hiring.

AL Notes: Rangers, Ramirez, Betts, Orioles

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Rangers GM Jon Daniels cast doubt on the idea of the team making any marquee additions in comments yesterday to the media, including MLB.com’s TR Sullivan. Daniels called it “unlikely” that the club would end up with a top starter, though he said he also wouldn’t “close the door” on a market that includes former ace Yu Darvish. More likely, it seems, would be a depth addition of some kind, though Daniels also emphasized that the organization is not close to any new deals. Broadly, the organization remains steadfast in its “realistic” assessment of its abilities and needs. While the anticipated roster mix is likely “to create some challenges,” says Daniels, that doesn’t mean it will vary from its strategy entering the winter. The Rangers, he says, were “not going to go all-in, spending big dollars this year, nor were we going to be looking to trade all of our young players.”

More from the American League:

  • The Angels received some promising news on righty J.C. Ramirez, GM Billy Eppler tells Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register (via Twitter). Ramirez is continuing to show healing in his right elbow, where he suffered a season-ending partial UCL tear. Stem cell treatment has been promising to this point, giving the team some renewed confidence that it will receive a contribution again from Ramirez, who agreed to a $1.9MM arbitration salary after turning in 147 1/3 innings of 4.15 ERA ball in 2017.
  • As the Red Sox prepare for an arbitration show-down with star outfielder Mookie Betts, Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald argues the team never should have put itself in this position. The sides have a $3MM gap at present ($10.5MM vs. $7.5MM) and indications are they’ll resolve it in a hearing, meaning the Sox will be put in the position of presenting Betts in a less-than-positive light before an arb panel. With a prior disagreement over his 2017 pre-arb salary, the financial relationship between the sides isn’t exactly off to the most promising start. For what it’s worth, MLBTR contributor and arbitration guru Matt Swartz argued before numbers were exchanged that Betts is likelier to command a first-time arb payday on the lower side of the existing gulf.
  • Speaking of arbitration, the Orioles will evidently not commit to going to trial over their remaining cases, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. Rather the club is still willing to engage in negotiations with both infielder Jonathan Schoop ($9MM filing versus $7.5MM counter) and righty Kevin Gausman ($6.225MM filing versus $5.3MM counter). Whether that’ll mean avoiding a hearing isn’t yet known, but the seeming strategic shift will at least leave remaining room for talks on a few players of quite a bit of importance to the organization’s future.

East Notes: Machado, Yankees, Mets

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While Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (subscription required/highly recommended) doesn’t necessarily expect the Orioles to trade Manny Machado prior to the season, he reports that the Diamondbacks are still pushing to acquire the infielder. D-backs second baseman Brandon Drury continues to be one of the players involved in Machado trade discussions, as Rosenthal first reported last month, and left-handed pitching prospect Anthony Banda has also been part of the teams’ talks. Machado would play shortstop in Arizona, potentially pushing Ketel Marte to second base and Chris Owings to a super-utility/outfield role, Rosenthal adds.

A few other items stemming from baseball organizations on the East coast…

  • Though the Yankees were in on Cole at one point, Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports reports that the two sides never actually came close to a deal. The Pirates wanted at least one of Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier, which may have (in my perspective) provided a reasonable framework to get a deal done. However, the hangup was over the other players involved in the package for Cole; the inability to agree on supplemental players proved an obstacle in getting a deal done.
  • The latest on the Mets’ infield comes from Rosenthal, who writes that they’re more interested in acquiring a second base than a third baseman. However, it doesn’t seem they’ve made any headway with the Pirates regarding Josh Harrison, Rosenthal suggests, while free agent Eduardo Nunez may be too pricey at the moment. A reunion with free agent and ex-Met Neil Walker is possible, but there’s competition from the Brewers and other teams, per Rosenthal. Interestingly, even after signing Jay Bruce this week, the Mets are considering bringing back free agent first baseman Lucas Duda, Rosenthal relays.
  • Elsewhere on the Mets front, suspended reliever Jenrry Mejia is expected to apply for reinstatement “in the near future,” Matt Ehalt of The Record writes. Major League Baseball hit Mejia with a lifetime ban for performance-enhancing drugs back in 2016, but he’s allowed to appeal after two years. That two-year window will expire in February, which will enable Mejia to vie for reinstatement and get a hearing with commissioner Rob Manfred within 30 days of submitting his application, per Ehalt. If Manfred doesn’t rule in Mejia’s favor, he’d have the ability to appeal to an arbitration panel, Ehalt reports. Regardless, odds continue to be against Mejia ever pitching in MLB again, Ehalt suggests.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/13/18

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We’ll use this post to keep track of today’s minor league signings…

  • The Marlins have re-signed southpaw Mike Kickham to a minors deal with an invitation to spring training, according to the Associated Press. Last season was the first in the Miami organization for Kickham, who divided the year between the minors’ two highest levels and posted a 3.65 ERA over 145 2/3 innings (27 appearances, 25 starts). Kickham also logged 7.4 K/9 against just 1.5 BB/9. The 29-year-old brings minimal big league experience, with his most recent stint being a two-inning showing with San Francisco in 2014.
  • The Orioles have signed infielder/outfielder Anderson Feliz to a minors pact without a spring training invite, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. The O’s are the third organization for Feliz, who was previously in the minors with the Yankees (2009-14) and Pirates (2015-17). In his first Triple-A action last season, the 25-year-old Feliz batted a meek .209/.257/.328 in 145 plate appearances.

Earlier Updates

  • Angels lefty Nate Smith will remain in the organization after clearing waivers and being outrighted, the club announced. The 26-year-old had earned a 40-man spot in advance of the 2017 Rule 5 draft, but he ended up missing the bulk of the year due to elbow/forearm issues. Things only got worse this winter, as Smith ended up requiring anterior capsule surgery that will cost him all of the coming season. He was designated for assignment recently. Smith has generally been regarded as one of the Halos’ best pitching prospects in recent years, though he had struggled somewhat at Triple-A in 2016 (4.61 ERA in 150 1/3 innings) before the injury bug hit late that season.
  • The Marlins have inked outfielder Scott Van Slyke to a minor league deal which includes an invitation to spring training, Joe Frisaro of MLB.com tweets. Van Slyke had spent his entire pro baseball career with the Dodgers’ organization, with the small exception of 57 games he played for the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate. The 6’4″ outfielder owns a career slash line of just .230/.308/.390, but his most useful role is as a platoon hitter versus left-handed pitching against. When facing southpaws, he’s posted a .252/.358/.462 line with a 130 wRC+. Van Slyke has seen a performance decline in recent seasons, however; he was roughly average against lefties in 2016 and wasn’t able to muster much offense at all in 29 major league plate appearances last season. He’ll now join a rebuilding Marlins club with whom he has a better chance of earning playing time at the MLB level.
  • Also joining the Marlins is right-hander Javy Guerra, per Tim Healey of the Sun-Sentinel. The 32-year-old gave Miami 21 innings of 3.00 ERA ball in 2017 and has managed to crack the big leagues in each of the pat seven seasons. It has been a while, though, since Guerra held down a regular relief role. Despite his bottom-line success last year, Guerra managed only 5.1 K/9 (on a marginal 5.3% swinging-strike rate) against 3.0 BB/9. That said, he did produce quality groundball (54.4%) and infield fly (21.1%) rates.

Unresolved 2018 Arbitration Cases

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We’ve covered a whole lot of arbitration deals today, many of them reached before today’s deadline to exchange filing figures. Some other agreements have come together after team and player submitted their numbers. It’s still possible, of course, that these situations will be resolved before an arbitration hearing becomes necessary. (At this point, we seem to lack full clarity on teams’ approaches to negotiations after the filing deadline. And most organizations make exceptions for multi-year deals even if they have a file-and-trial stance.)

Some situations could even be dealt with in short order. As things stand, though, these unresolved arbitration cases could turn into significant hearings. (As always, MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration projections can be found here; you will also want to reference MLBTR’s 2018 arbitration tracker.)

Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Zach Britton, Brad Brach

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3:04pm: Baltimore has also avoided arbitration with righty Brad Brach, Connolly tweets. He’ll earn $5.165MM, just shy of his $5.2MM projection.

Infielder Tim Beckham ($3.35MM) and catcher Caleb Joseph ($1.25MM) also have deals in place, per Connolly (Twitter links). The former lands just over his projected $3.1MM, while the latter falls a bit shy of the $1.4MM that the MLBTR algorithm foresaw.

1:56pm: The Orioles have agreed to a one-year deal with injured closer Zach Britton, thus avoiding arbitration, Dan Connolly of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports (Twitter links). Britton will get a raise from $11.4MM to $12MM under the new contract. Britton caeme with a projected arbitration salary of $12.2MM, via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

It remains to be seen precisely when Britton will be able to take the field for the Orioles in 2018. After a 2o17 season that was truncated by a pair of forearm injuries, Britton saw his run of bad luck continued when he suffered a torn Achilles tendon during his offseason workouts last month. The injury required surgical repair and came with a reported recovery time of four to six months, though certainly the Orioles will hope that the rehab comes in on the short end of that fairly broad range.

Britton, who recently turned 30, was among baseball’s elite relievers from 2014-16, pairing strong stirkeout and walk rates with historically brilliant ground-ball rates. Britton’s mid-90s sinker was so devastating that he set a single-season Major League record for pitchers (min. 60 innings pitched, dating back to 2002 when batted-ball data began being tracked) with a 79.1 percent ground-ball rate in 2015, only to promptly break his own record with an unthinkable 80 percent mark in 2016.

This past season, though, Britton was limited to 37 1/3 frames by injury and didn’t look like himself when healthy. While his 2.89 ERA was better than the league average, he averaged just 7.0 K/9 against 4.3 BB/9 with a still-ridiculous 72.6 percent ground-ball rate. Those strikeout and walk rates were far and away the worst that Britton has posted since converting to a full-time reliever in 2014.

The O’s will be left hoping that Britton can rebound not only from the Achilles injury but also from the forearm woes that hampered him in 2017. If he’s able to return sometime in the first half of the season, he could build himself up to either be a trade candidate or an important piece of the bullpen should the Orioles defy current expectations and find themselves in contention next summer.

Even if he doesn’t emerge as a trade option, a healthy Britton would be a no-brainer to receive a qualifying offer, so the Orioles could still recoup draft compensation in the event that he returns to form, plays out the season in Baltimore, and then hits free agency. And, of course, the possibility remains that the two sides could talk this spring about a potential agreement that would extend his tenure with the club beyond its current end point.

O course, it’s important to recall that arbitration salaries are not fully guaranteed (unless that’s specifically agreed upon). We at MLBTR have been among those to express the view that the Orioles might be best served simply cutting Britton loose and pay him only thirty days of salary for the coming season. But as Connolly points out (Twitter links), such a decision would likely invite a grievance action since Britton injured himself while working out for the coming season after already being tendered a contract.

Orioles Avoid Arbitration With Manny Machado

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Despite earlier indications to the contrary, the Orioles have agreed to avoid arbitration with third baseman Manny Machado, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). A prior report from Feinsand indicated the sides were headed for a hearing, but they have instead settled at $16MM.

Baltimore and Machado had actually exchanged figures earlier this afternoon, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. But they were evidently able to bridge the gap after each saw the other’s formal position.

The model operated by MLBTR and contributor Matt Swartz projected that Machado would earn $17.3MM in his final trip through the arbitration process. As Swartz went on to write, though, comparables suggested Machado would likely earn a fair bit less.

That’s just what happened, as the 25-year-old was not able to replicate the hefty $6.5MM raise he earned before the 2017 season. Though he still launched over thirty home runs and was a quality all-around performer, Machado’s overall offensive output drooped significantly. He ended the year with a .259/.310/.471 slash line.

It has been an eventful offseason to date for the Orioles and Machado, whose name has appeared consistently in trade rumors. While the O’s are still said to be willing to listen to offers on the pending free agent superstar, the club is also not actively shopping him at this point. That said, there’s little indication to this point that Baltimore will have much of a shot at working out a deal to keep Machado from reaching the open market.

Latest On Orioles’ Arbitration Class

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1:05pm: The deadline to exchange figures has passed, and the Orioles did not announce deals for any of their seven arb-eligible players. Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets that the two sides will likely continue to work on deals, adding that he doesn’t believe the team will strictly adhere to a “file and trial” strategy.

Note: the O’s have since reportedly agreed to terms with Britton, Brach, Machado, and others.

11:45am: The Orioles and Manny Machado will not agree to a salary prior to today’s deadline to exchange salary arbitration figures, reports Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (on Twitter). As Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun wrote last year, Baltimore has been a “file and trial” club, meaning that they’ll cease negotiations on a one-year deal once those figures are exchanged and head to an arbitration hearing with Machado’s representatives at the MVP Sports Group. (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes recently reported that all 30 clubs are employing a file and trial outlook in 2018.)

Machado, who will be a free agent next winter, is in his last offseason of arbitration eligibility and came with a projected arbitration salary of $17.3MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. It’s unclear at what level the two sides will file their figures, and it also remains unclear if the O’s will avoid arbitration with any of their group. The deadline to exchange figures is only a few minutes away (1pm ET). In addition to Machado, the Orioles have Zach Britton, Brad Brach, Jonathan Schoop, Kevin Gausman, Caleb Joseph and Tim Beckham eligible for the arbitration process.

Machado’s name, of course, has frequently arisen in trade rumblings this offseason, though the lack of an arb agreement before the exchange point shouldn’t have an impact on the likelihood of a deal. At present, the Orioles’ reported asking price remains high, and no team has seemingly been able to find its way into advanced trade discussions with the O’s.

AL East Notes: Stanton, Frazier, Andujar, JDM, Givens, Blue Jays

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While the Yankees were assuredly disheartened upon being informed that they were not a finalist for Shohei Ohtani, that information looks to have largely paved the way for New York’s blockbuster acquisition of Giancarlo Stanton. Yankees GM Brian Cashman joined Jim Bowden and Craig Mish on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today and discussed his club’s pursuit of both Ohtani and Stanton (Twitter link with audio). As Cashman explains, had the Yankees been among the finalists for Ohtani, or even signed him, they’d have been committed to keeping the DH spot largely open in order to accommodate Ohtani’s desire to both pitch and hit. However, being informed that they were out of the Ohtani sweepstakes fairly early in the process allowed Cashman and his staff to pivot and re-engage the Marlins on Stanton. New York and Miami had talked in the previous month, per Cashman, and negotiations quickly became serious once the Yankees knew they could use the DH spot that had been earmarked for Ohtani to rotate Stanton, Aaron Judge and others.

Elsewhere in the AL East…

  • In that same appearance, Cashman also spoke about the possibility of Stanton and Judge seeing time in left field as well as trade interest in prospects Miguel Andujar and Clint Frazier (both links via MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch). Hoch notes that the DH spot is a more likely avenue to get both Judge and Stanton into the same lineup, though Cashman said that both players have expressed a willingness and level of excitement regarding the possibility of playing the opposite outfield corner. Brett Gardner and Aaron Hicks figure to line up regularly in left field and center field for the Yankees, but it seems that there’ll be days when one of the two slugging career-long right fielders could see time in left. As for Andujar and Frazier, Cashman spoke highly of both and acknowledged the possibility of a trade, though he also said he could hang onto both young players. Cashman calls Frazier a “very valuable, attractive asset” not only to the Yankees but to other teams and later adds that Andujar is “…a very exciting talent — one that’s being insisted upon, it seems like, in every conversation I’m having with anything that’s high-end out there.”
  • Red Sox ownership has given president of baseball ops Dave Dombrowski more autonomy than his predecessors received, writes Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston, and it’s been Dombrowski who has primarily driven the Red Sox’ pursuit of J.D. Martinez. Drellich wonders if now is the time for Dombrowski and owner John Henry to begin showing this type of restraint — Boston has reportedly offered Martinez five years but drawn a line there — as New York and Los Angeles both loom as potential big spenders again next offseason. Drellich also takes a look at Dombrowski’s history of splashy moves (some of his own volition and some driven by late Tigers owner Mike Ilitch during Dombrowski’s days in Detroit) as well as his reputation as an executive that is, at times, willing to overpay on the free-agent and trade markets.
  • Right-hander Mychal Givens drew persistent trade interest at the Winter Meetings, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, but he’s among the players that the Orioles consider to be untouchable. With Zach Britton on the shelf due to a ruptured Achilles tendon, many are expecting Brad Brach to step into the closer’s role, though Kubatko writes that manager Buck Showalter isn’t anointing anyone. Rather, Showalter believes that in Givens, Brach, Darren O’Day and lefty Richard Bleier, he has a number of weapons that can help lock down games, depending on the situation. “In a perfect world you’d be able to spread it around, but I’m not there yet,” says Showalter. “…But I’m confident that we have more than one person capable of doing a good job with it. To think you’re going to have somebody to do it at the level that [Britton] did it, that’s historic. There’s not a guy out there like that.”
  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins said in an appearance on Sportsnet 590 that his club does indeed have interest in Marlins star Christian Yelich, though he cautioned that virtually every team in baseball is in that boat as well (link via Sportsnet’s Michael Hoad). Atkins again voiced a desire to strengthen both his outfield and his pitching staff, though he acknowledged that the outfield is a greater need. The Jays, Atkins added, are heartened by the fact that they have both payroll capacity (a reported $20MM or so in 2018 space) and a strong farm system that allows them to trade. Certainly, the Marlins would be keen on top-tier talents like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette if they were to seriously entertain parting with Yelich. Sportsnet’s Ben Nicholson-Smith tweets that Atkins addressed the theoretical notion of moving those elite prospects, saying they’d only be available were the Jays to acquire a “young, controllable player that we feel could be as talented or more as those two players.” While Yelich arguably fits that description, Nicholson-Smith notes that it still seems likely that the Jays will hang onto both players.

Tim Beckham Changes Agents

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Orioles shortstop Tim Beckham has hired new representation, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). His new agency will be the Wasserman Media Group.

Beckham, who is now closing in on his 28th birthday, entered the professional ranks as the top overall selection in the 2008 draft. Though he has not quite lived up to that billing to this point, Beckham is fresh off of his most promising campaign at the MLB level.

While his tenure with the Rays came to an end at the 2017 trade deadline, Beckham produced at a roughly league-average rate at the plate during his time with Tampa Bay. And he exploded upon arriving in Baltimore, carrying a robust .306/.348/.523 batting line over 230 plate appearances despite a late-season swoon.

It’s tough to know just what to expect from Beckham, who has yet to prove he’s an everyday player but will surely be relied upon heavily by the O’s. There’s still some uncertainty as to how the club will line up on the left side of the infield, too, and Beckham has been approached about some potential changes.

Regardless of what’s to come, the first order of business will be sorting out a 2018 salary. MLBTR projects an arbitration salary of $3.1MM for Beckham, who earned $885K last year as a Super Two player and can be controlled for two additional seasons via arbitration.

As always, you can find up-to-date player representation information in MLBTR’s Agency Database.

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