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Ivan Nova: Trade Candidate?

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This has been a season to forget for veteran right-hander Ivan Nova, whom the White Sox acquired from the Pirates last winter to competently soak up innings. It wasn’t an unreasonable expectation on Chicago’s part that Nova would provide its rotation with some much-needed stability. After all, Nova was coming off three straight seasons in which he amassed 160-plus frames and recorded an ERA in the low fours. That type of production would’ve been welcome for this year’s White Sox, who have gotten very little from any starter except Lucas Giolito. That includes the 32-year-old Nova, their leader in starts (21) and innings (119 2/3).

Even after firing a one-run complete game against the Marlins on Monday, Nova has only managed a 5.49 ERA/5.34 FIP this season. And yet, despite the immense difficulties Nova has encountered in 2019, he seems to be garnering interest from elsewhere with the trade deadline a week away. “Many scouts” have been “looking at” the struggling Nova, according to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, while Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times also identifies him as a potential trade chip.

When it comes to starters, pitchers the caliber of Madison Bumgarner, Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman tend to monopolize the headlines at this time of year. Back-end innings eaters do have value to teams pushing for playoff spots, though, which could make Nova movable for the White Sox. The problem is that the 2019 version of Nova hasn’t fit the bill.  Even looking past Nova’s shoddy run prevention, there isn’t much to like aside from a low walk rate (2.33 BB/9) and a solid groundball percentage (47.0). His home run-to-fly ball rate, 19.5, ranks fifth worst among 75 qualified starters. His strikeout rate, 5.79 per nine, sits third from the bottom. Furthermore, just 14 starters have posted a worse swinging-strike rate (9.0 percent).

Statcast doesn’t care for the Chicago iteration of Nova, either. In fact, he doesn’t check in any better than the majors’ 37th percentile in mean fastball velocity (92.3 mph), strikeout percentage, exit velocity, hard-hit rate against, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage or expected weighted on-base average. While Nova’s .357 xwOBA is better than the J.D. Martinez-esque .370 real wOBA that hitters have pummeled him for, it’s not by much.

Based on what Nova has done this year, the soon-to-be free agent doesn’t appear capable of boosting anyone’s rotation down the stretch. But could he aid a team in a relief role? It doesn’t look like it. Batters have smacked Nova for a .361 wOBA the first time through the order, with righties (.367) and lefties (.365) abusing him to near-matching degrees. Nova also isn’t cheap – he’s making $8.5MM, roughly $3MM of which is still on the way – so Chicago will likely have to eat most or all of his salary to have any hope of dealing him. Even if the White Sox do that, they may have trouble finding a taker.

Braves Among Teams Interested In White Sox Relievers

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There are “numerous teams,” including the Braves, interested in members of the White Sox bullpen, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score tweets. Closer Alex Colome and setup man Aaron Bummer are unsurprisingly drawing plenty of attention. Beyond those two, lefty Jace Fry and resurgent righty Evan Marshall stand out as Sox relievers who could have trade value to the Braves and others. However, Levine reported Monday that Chicago’s not inclined to deal Bummer or Fry.

Levine also relayed Monday that the White Sox, despite their dismal record, aren’t motivated to sell before the July 31 deadline. But unless Chicago’s highly confident it’s going to contend next season, there’s a legitimate case for it to part with Colome. The soon-to-be 31-year-old is only under control through 2020, when he’ll earn an arbitration raise over his $7.325MM salary, and currently looks like a strong candidate for regression.

The right-handed Colome has pitched to a sterling 2.33 ERA with 21 saves on 22 tries in 38 2/3 innings this season. He has been the beneficiary of a .153 batting average on balls in play and an 82.7 percent strand out, however, and has seen his strikeout rate plummet. After fanning upward of 9.5 batters per nine last season, Colome’s K/9 has shrunk to 6.98. He’s also giving up more hard contact and less soft contact than ever, per FanGraphs, and Statcast shows a 102-point gap between the .228 weighted on-base average Colome has allowed and his expected wOBA of .330.

“Bummer” may be what opposing hitters have muttered this year when the left-handed Bummer has come out of Chicago’s bullpen. The 25-year-old Bummer is similar to Colome in that he’s getting by with help from a low BABIP (.213), an ERA that’s significantly better than his FIP and a sizable wOBA/xwOBA gap. Having said that, Bummer’s 1.73 ERA, 3.17 FIP and .262 xwOBA (compared to a .232 wOBA) are all easily above average. While Bummer’s not a strikeout-heavy pitcher, having notched 8.67 against 2.72 walks per nine, he has stymied lefty and righty hitters alike with his remarkable ability to induce ground balls. At 68.5 percent, Bummer trails only longtime grounder master Zack Britton among relievers.

Incidentally, Luke Jackson – one of the Braves’ best relievers – happens to be right behind Bummer on the grounder leaderboard. Jackson’s success is one of the reasons the Braves hold a healthy advantage in the National League East, but their bullpen has been fairly shaky. Aside from Jackson, Anthony Swarzak, Sean Newcomb and the currently injured Jacob Webb, no one from their ’pen has prevented runs at an especially excellent rate. The Braves have been in the market for late-game help as a result, and could wind up swinging a deal with the White Sox to bolster their relief corps.

White Sox Rumors: Colome, Abreu, Bummer, Fry, Leury

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At 45-52 and 10 games back of a wild-card spot, the White Sox are buried in the American Leagugue playoff race. Despite that, the team isn’t going into the July 31 trade deadline as a motivated seller, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score explains.

Thirty-somethings Alex Colome and Jose Abreu would represent a pair of plausible trade chips if the White Sox were to aggressively ship out veterans. Either player could still move by the 31st, but considering Colome’s under control through 2020, the White Sox could opt to retain him, Levine observes. Abreu’s an impending free agent, though the franchise icon and the club have time and again expressed a desire to stay together beyond this season. The White Sox still aren’t ruling out dealing the first baseman, per Levine, but he adds they’d need to “love” an offer for Abreu if they’re going to part with him.

Meanwhile, two of Colome’s fellow relievers – Aaron Bummer and Jace Fry – as well as utilityman Leury Garcia have also garnered interest, Levine reports. Bummer has generated the most inquiries, but the White Sox are inclined to keep him and Fry.

Just 25 and not even eligible for arbitration until after next season, the left-handed Bummer has pitched to an exceptional 1.73 ERA (3.17 FIP) in 36 1/3 innings. An eye-popping 68.5 percent groundball rate and 8.67 K/9 against 2.72 BB/9 have driven Bummer’s success, as has a rise in velocity. Bummer has seen his average fastball velo rise from 93 mph between 2017-18 to 95-plus this season.

Fry, 26, is another lefty-throwing grounder machine, having forced them at a 57.8 percent clip in 2019. He’s striking out an excellent 11.5 per nine to boot, but a sky-high walk rate (6.68 BB/9) has undermined Fry’s work, evidenced by a 4.28 ERA/4.23 FIP over 33 2/3 innings. He, like Bummer, won’t reach arbitration until after 2020.

Garcia’s already in the arb process – he’s in his second-last year before free agency – but his $1.55MM salary, season-plus of control and defensive flexibility make him appealing to the White Sox and other clubs. While the 28-year-old is typically a center fielder, he has played upward of 40 games at both corner outfield spots and both middle infield positions since debuting in 2013. Garcia’s also a switch-hitter who has complemented his versatility in the field with useful offense in recent years. After managing terrible numbers with the bat from 2013-16, Garcia has been closer to a league-average hitter over the past two-plus seasons. Despite a lack of power, Garcia has posted a 92 wRC+ (.278/.316/.396) dating back to 2017.

Garcia’s improvement at the dish may help lead to his exit from Chicago in the next several days. However, the White Sox – who’d surely like to move past their rebuild and into contention soon – don’t seem dead set on trading Garcia or anyone else.

White Sox Sticking With Rick Renteria

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White Sox manager Rick Renteria is in his third season on the job, and it’s likely he’ll have three straight sub-.500 campaigns to show for his work once the year concludes. After combining for a 129-195 record from 2017-18, this year’s Renteria-led White Sox have gone into a tailspin and fallen to 42-51. The rebuilding club was surprisingly just one game under .500 through 83 contests, but it has dropped nine of 10 since then, including all seven of its post-All-Star break matchups. Most of the second-half defeats have come at the hands of the abysmal Royals, who completed a four-game sweep of the White Sox on Thursday.

As poorly as things are going right now for Chicago, its struggles aren’t going to lead to a new manager. Not only is Renteria’s job safe for this year, but it doesn’t seem the White Sox will be going in another direction in the dugout anytime soon.

General manager Rick Hahn heaped praise on Renteria on Thursday, saying (via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times), “As we said at the start of this process, we believed Ricky was the right man not only for the early stages of it but also for when the time arrived that we were ready to contend for championships.”

Hahn went on to credit the 57-year-old Renteria’s “strengths as a teacher, as a communicator, as someone who helps forge a new culture” – all of which have been important during the team’s rebuild, the GM believes. But once the White Sox move past the rebuilding phase, “[Renteria’s] ability to put the players in the best position to succeed and to maximize the win potential of our -rosters will be moved more -towards the forefront,” according to Hahn.

It certainly wouldn’t be fair at this point to judge Renteria on the team’s win-loss mark under his stewardship. He simply hasn’t had the horses to compete since succeeding Robin Ventura as the White Sox’s manager. Soon after Renteria went from Ventura’s bench coach to his replacement, the White Sox opted for a teardown, trading stars Chris Sale, Adam Eaton and Jose Quintana from December 2016 to July 2017.

The blockbuster deals the White Sox pulled off a couple years ago have begun to pay significant dividends at the major league level. A few of the premium prospects from those swaps (Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease) have either established themselves in Chicago or stand legitimate chances to do so. How much credit should go to Renteria for that is up for debate. What’s clear is that he’s getting much more of a chance on the South Side of Chicago than he did on the North Side. He previously helped oversee the end of the Cubs’ rebuild as their manager in 2014, when they finished 73-89. The Cubs then moved on from Renteria in favor of Joe Maddon, who has steered a talent-laden team to four straight playoff berths and a World Series title.

White Sox Place Eloy Jimenez On IL, Select Ryan Goins

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The White Sox announced today that they have placed outfielder Eloy Jimenez on the 10-day injured list. The club identified his injury as a “right ulnar nerve contusion.”

To fill the open active roster spot, the South Siders have selected the contract of infielder Ryan Goins. A 40-man slot had already been created when righty Juan Minaya was designated for assignment; the club announced that he has been outrighted to Triple-A.

It’s not known yet how long Jimenez will be sidelined, but it doesn’t sound as if the young slugger is at risk of a particularly lengthy absence. As for Goins, he’s back in the majors for the first time since 2018 after slashing a sturdy .322/.406/.531 in 316 plate appearances at Triple-A.

White Sox Likely To Place Eloy Jimenez On Injured List

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White Sox left fielder Eloy Jimenez departed the team’s loss to the Royals on Tuesday with right elbow soreness after a collision with center fielder Charlie Tilson. While the severity of the injury isn’t yet known, Jimenez is “likely” headed to the IL, manager Rick Renteria told Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters. He’ll undergo an MRI in the meantime, James Fegan of The Athletic tweets.

An IL stint would be the second of the year for the ballyhooed Jimenez, who suffered a right ankle sprain in late April. That injury cost Jimenez approximately four weeks of action. Since Jimenez returned May 20, he has started all but one of the White Sox’s games in left field.

Considered one of the majors’ elite prospects entering the season, the 22-year-old Jimenez has lived up to the billing at the plate since a rough April and May. The rookie posted a 144 wRC+ in June and has so far mustered a 124 mark in July. Overall, Jimenez has slashed .244/.307/.483 (107 wRC+) with 17 home runs in 267 plate appearances. Jimenez hasn’t been as successful in left, though, with minus-10 Defensive Runs Saved and a minus-2.8 Ultimate Zone Rating.

Thanks in part to Jimenez’s offensive contributions, Chicago was unexpectedly in the AL playoff race not long ago. But reality has set in of late for the White Sox, losers of five straight to begin the second half of the season. They’re now 42-49 and a potentially insurmountable 9 1/2 games out of a wild-card spot. Losing Jimenez isn’t going to help the fading club’s cause.

Health Notes: McCann, Castillo, Polanco, Severino

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Veteran Braves backstop Brian McCann hasn’t yet decided on his future but feels great in the present, he tells David O’Brien of The Athletic (subscription link) as part of a lengthy and entertaining chat. The 35-year-old backstop would say only that “we’ll see what happens” when pressed on his intentions for playing beyond the current campaign. It certainly seems like a tempting proposition for McCann, who says he “feel[s] amazing” after undergoing knee surgery last year. While he has had some ups and downs at the plate this season, McCann carries a solid .257/.328/.427 batting line over 198 plate appearances and has been an excellent value for the Braves at $2MM. His ongoing knee health seems to bode well for the organization down the stretch.

More on a few health situations from around the game …

  • The White Sox announced today that they have activated catcher Welington Castillo. He ended up missing about a month with an oblique strain. It remains to be seen how the Chicago org will allocate playing time, but odds are James McCann will continue to receive the lion’s share of the duties behind the dish. Castillo could conceivably be moved later this month, if only because teams will be looking to stash depth in advance of the single trade deadline, but he won’t hold much appeal given his ugly .196/.289/.364 slash. The veteran backstop is also earning a hefty $7.25MM this year and is owed a $500K buyout on a $8MM club option for 2020. The White Sox may also just hang tight and see if their club can make a surprise run at a Wild Card slot.
  • Pirates outfielder Gregory Polanco won’t bounce back to the majors quite as quickly as had been hoped. As Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes, Polanco was pulled from a rehab contest with left shoulder tightness. For now, the club only intends to give him a brief rest without interrupting the rehab assignment. As Mackey notes, the timing is of some consequence to the Bucs. The club is in a tough spot as the trade deadline approaches, having slipped into the NL Central cellar. It’s arguably positioned to sell a left-handed-hitting outfielder regardless of what else it does — highly paid pending free agent Corey Dickerson seems a particular candidate — but it’ll be tough to pull the trigger on a deal if there’s uncertainly regarding Polanco’s availability.
  • As expected, Yankees righties Luis Severino and Dellin Betances resumed throwing yesterday, as MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch reports. Indications are that all went well for both hurlers in limited sessions, designed only to begin reintroducing their strained lats to the rigors of the MLB mound. Severino told reporters that he’d be willing to work back in a relief capacity if that’s the organization’s preference. While that’d bring him aboard quicker, it probably isn’t the optimal outcome for a club that has a need for quality rotation pieces and can probably afford to be patient.

White Sox Designate Juan Minaya For Assignment

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The White Sox have designated righty Juan Minaya for assignment, tweets Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times.

Minaya, a former Astro farmhand, was reasonably effective for the club this season, posting a 3.90 ERA with a decent 27/12 K/BB in 27 2/3 mostly low-leverage innings. ERA estimators were far less impressed, though – his 29.4% grounder rate was among the league’s lowest, leaving a projected HR/9 well north of the 1.30 total he allowed this season. The 28-year-old’s velocity also dipped nearly two full miles per hour from his career-best 95.4 MPH mark in ’18, and his slider effectiveness had diminished substantially.

Minaya’s DFA makes room for the return of righty Dylan Covey, himself somewhat of a chink in the already-frail armor of the White Sox rotation. The team’s bullpen’s also struggled, making the Minaya move a bit of a head-scratcher. Only a dominant Aaron Bummer has separated himself; Alex Colome and Evan Marshall have gotten outs with iffy peripherals, with the former sporting a comically low .124 BABIP.

Hahn Again Touches On Abreu's Future

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  • Jose Abreu’s contractual status with the White Sox has been an ongoing story throughout Chicago’s rebuild. While he’s long been a logical on-paper trade chip, Sox brass has maintained that the first baseman’s clubhouse presence and leadership is virtually indispensable; both sides have openly stated a desire to continue the relationship beyond his current contract, but no deal has come to pass. Now, with Abreu months from free agency, GM Rick Hahn touched on the subject again — discussing the delicate balance of cold, hard statistical value and less quantifiable intangible means of value. “That’s the more, unfortunately, clinical side of things is, ‘OK, a right-handed hitting first baseman who’s produced at this level over the last few years at this age, what do you project going forward and what’s the value of that?'” Hahn asked rhetorically in an interview with The Athletic’s James Fegan. “It’s sort of that more touchy-feely, emotional side of things in terms of knowing the value that he has in this clubhouse and the leadership skills, the softer benefits that he brings to the club, that affects your valuation of a guy like that.”

White Sox To Promote A.J. Reed

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The White Sox will bring just-acquired first baseman A.J. Reed right onto their active roster, the young slugger tells Rick Semmler of Indiana’s WTHI (via Twitter). Reed had initially been assigned to Triple-A Charlotte but says he was informed he’ll meet the big league club in Oakland.

It’s not yet clear what the corresponding move will be for the Chicago organization, which snagged Reed from the Astros in a recent waiver claim. The White Sox were in need of another lefty bat after parting ways with Yonder Alonso, who struggled in brief action. Perhaps it’s unsurprising, then, that they’ll hand over an immediate opportunity to Reed.

The former second-round draft pick would obviously not have been freely available had he performed to expectations, but the White Sox can afford to have greater patience and perhaps offer a new perspective in attempting to draw out the long-evident talent. Now 26 years of age, Reed struggled in his only extended MLB action back in 2016.

While he has mostly performed well at Triple-A, Reed hasn’t forced his way onto a deep Houston roster and has clearly lost much of his prospect luster. This year has been a particular struggle, as he carries only a .224/.329/.469 slash line with a dozen long ball in 225 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors. In this booming offensive environment, that’s actually about ten percent below league-average productivity. Though he’s still walking at an even  12 percent clip, Reed has also gone down on strikes in nearly three of every ten trips to the dish.

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