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Ohio Notes: Arroyo, Rodriguez, Bruce, Reds, Tribe

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Here are some notes from the Buckeye State’s two teams…

  • The Reds still have an interest in a reunion with Bronson Arroyo, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon tweets.  Cincinnati has been linked to the veteran righty on a couple of occasions this offseason, though GM Dick Williams has stated that his club’s interest is dependent on whether or not Arroyo is recovered from his Tommy John surgery.  Arroyo hasn’t pitched since June 2014 due to that surgery yet the Reds are one of at least seven teams who have checked in on his status.
  • Also from Sheldon, outfielder Yorman Rodriguez will get a long look during Spring Training given the Reds’ needs in the outfield and Rodriguez’s out-of-options contract status.  Rodriguez originally signed with the Reds as a 16-year-old in 2008 for $2.5MM, then a record bonus for Venezuelan amateurs.  He’s hit .261/.314/.399 with 50 homers over 2546 minor league plate appearances and his MLB experience consists of an 11-game cup of coffee with the Reds in 2014.  Baseball America ranked him as Cincinnati’s 10th-best prospect prior to the 2015 season, and in a November chat about the Reds’ farm system, BA’s J.J. Cooper predicted Rodriguez will be the Reds’ Opening Day left fielder.
  • Since the Reds and Indians recently had discussions about Todd Frazier before the third baseman was dealt to Chicago, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer figures that Jay Bruce’s name probably also came up given the Tribe’s need for outfielders.  That said, Hoynes doubts Bruce was or is a fit for Cleveland due to his notable salary ($12.5MM in 2016 and a $13MM club option for 2017 with a $1MM buyout) and inconsistent play.  For what it’s worth, the Indians aren’t one of the eight teams on Bruce’s no-trade list.
  • The Indians have used information provided by MLB Advanced Media’s new Statcast player-tracking technology when evaluating players this winter, GM Mike Chernoff tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian.  While “scouts have been measuring tools of players for a long time, and they’re really good at it,” Chernoff said Statcast “is a way to get a slightly more accurate reading on some of those things.  This should be a huge relief for scouts and a huge complement to what they do.  [It] allows a scout to process the information rather than just have to transmit information to whoever is going to be reading his report.”

Checking In On Last Year’s Lowest-Scoring Offenses

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On January 2 of last year, MLBTR’s Zach Links looked at the lowest-scoring offenses in the 2014 season and what they had done that winter to improve. In 2015, the five lowest-scoring teams in baseball were the Braves (573 runs), Marlins (613), White Sox (622), Phillies (626) and Reds (640). What’s perhaps most striking about that list in comparison to the five teams Zach profiled (the Padres, Braves, Reds, Rays and Cubs) is that there are more teams than usual simply not acting like improving for the upcoming season is a top priority. The Braves and Phillies headed into the 2015-16 offseason already in the midst of obvious rebuilds; the Reds, having traded Todd Frazier and Aroldis Chapman this winter, now appear to be close to that status. Meanwhile, the Marlins continue to exist in a state of flux. Only the White Sox have made decisive moves to improve their run-scoring.

It should, perhaps, be noted that many of the top hitters in this winter’s free agent class remain on the market, with Justin Upton, Yoenis Cespedes, Chris Davis and Alex Gordon yet to find new teams. A team looking to upgrade its offense will have more opportunities to do so this month. But with a few exceptions (like the Cardinals, who actually finished 24th in the Majors and 11th in the NL in runs scored with 647 despite winning more regular-season games than any other team), it looks like many of the teams most likely to sign one of those players are teams whose offenses were already good.

With that in mind, though, there are plenty of interesting things even rebuilding teams can do with their offenses, including acquiring prospects and clearing space for young players. So let’s look in on what 2015’s lowest-scoring teams have done this offseason.

  • Braves – Atlanta re-signed A.J. Pierzynski and signed Tyler Flowers, giving them a pair of veteran backstops to compensate for the departure of former top prospect Christian Bethancourt, who they shipped to San Diego. They also made a couple small signings of veterans Gordon Beckham and Emilio Bonifacio to shore up a shaky infield and bench, and they added a couple hitters via minor league free agency, Nate Freiman and Ryan Lavarnway (actually a re-signing), who could provide a bit of upside. Replacing Andrelton Simmons with Erick Aybar obviously will hurt defensively, but might not make much difference on offense. The Braves’ key move to help their hitting, though, was their trade of Shelby Miller to Arizona for a package that included Ender Inciarte (an already-good outfielder who will likely replace the departed Cameron Maybin if he doesn’t head elsewhere in another trade) and 2015 No. 1 pick Dansby Swanson. If Swanson develops, he could have a profound effect on the Braves’ future offensively.
  • Marlins – Miami re-signed Ichiro Suzuki and Jeff Mathis, and has otherwise had a quiet offseason in which it will return many of the hitters it featured last year. That might not be all bad, of course — Giancarlo Stanton only played in 74 games in 2015, and a full season from him would be a huge help. The Marlins’ other two young outfielders, Christian Yelich and Marcell Ozuna, were much better in the second half of 2015 in the first, and they (along with Stanton and Dee Gordon) could help anchor a Marlins offense that looks likely to score more runs than it did last year.
  • White Sox – The White Sox are, in some ways, this offseason’s equivalent of the 2014-15 Padres — the team taking the most urgent action to address an offense that struggled the previous season. Unlike the Padres, whose series of trades for a bunch of square pegs last winter had a deleterious effect on the franchise, the White Sox’ moves seem to have been well chosen. Chicago’s performances at both second base and third base were among the worst in baseball in 2015, and their deals for Brett Lawrie and especially Frazier were decisive moves to strengthen both positions. The additions of Alex Avila and Dioner Navarro perhaps weren’t as dramatic or as likely to be effective, but those players will provide help at another position at which the White Sox struggled. The team has shown at least some interest in many of the top free agent bats available this offseason, and it could also still potentially use a shortstop.
  • Phillies – Philadelphia’s main moves this offseason (such as their trade of Ken Giles for a package that included Vincent Velasquez and Mark Appel, and their deals for rotation-filling pitchers Charlie Morton and Jeremy Hellickson) have mostly been oriented around pitching, but they’ve made a few small moves that could help their offense as well. Outfielder Tyler Goeddel, selected from the Rays with the first pick in the Rule 5 Draft, could potentially provide a bit of help. Waiver claim Peter Bourjos should figure in their outfield plans as well, although he’s not likely to hit much.
  • Reds – Cincinnati hasn’t made any big-league signings this offseason, and the defining moves of their winter have been their trades of Frazier and Chapman, which have returned two grab bags of young players. Jose Peraza, the key to the Frazier deal, could collect plenty of at-bats for the Reds in 2016, particularly if the team is ever able to deal Brandon Phillips, but Peraza is a light hitter who figures to make most of his offensive impact with his speed. Scott Schebler, a lefty-hitting outfielder acquired in that same deal, could help somewhat, although his upside appears to be limited. The prospect from the Chapman trade most likely to help the Reds’ offense in 2016 is third baseman Eric Jagielo, although he hasn’t yet played at the Triple-A level and might not reach Cincinnati until late in the season. In the Rule 5 Draft, the Reds grabbed Jake Cave, another lefty-hitting outfielder; he did not hit well at Double-A last year and doesn’t seem like a great bet to add much offense, at least not right away. The Reds don’t look to have improved their offense enough to compensate for Frazier’s departure. They are, however, in an earlier stage of rebuilding or re-tooling than the Braves or Phillies are (or perhaps they’ve just approached it somewhat less aggressively). They should also benefit next season from better health — having Devin Mesoraco behind the dish could make a big difference.

Quick Hits: Baez, Baker, Prospects, Market

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Barring a late-breaking move as the ball drops, this’ll be the last post of 2015 on MLBTR. Thanks for another great year! Be sure to join us bright and early tomorrow for a new one that will start with an arguably unprecedented slate of unsigned free agents.

Here are a few stray notes from around baseball:

  • In a piece for Baseball America, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times explores the question whether Javier Baez can turn into a Ben Zobrist-esque player for the Cubs. Baez has been getting a look in the outfield this spring, as has previously been reported. “It just adds to his versatility,” president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said. “He’s someone who always enjoyed taking fly balls during batting practice out in center field shagging, and he’s always looked really good doing so.” Of course, Chicago will enjoy Zobrist regardless, since it just signed the genuine article this winter
  • The Cubs have hired former backstop John Baker as a baseball operations assistant, as Wittenmyer also notes. The veteran wrapped up his seven-year MLB career in Chicago with a 68-game run in 2014. MLBTR wishes him the best of luck in his new gig.
  • MLB.com’s Jim Callis lists his ten breakout prospects for the coming year. Among the interesting names to watch is Jake Bauers, a little-known piece of last year’s blockbuster three-team trade that sent Wil Myers to the Padres and netted the Rays Steven Souza. The rising youngster could make that deal sting even more for San Diego than it has already. Likewise, pitchers Josh Hader of the Brewers (added in the Carlos Gomez/Mike Fiers deadline swap), Frances Martes of the Astros (who came from the Marlins in the deal that sent Jarred Cosart to Miami), and Cody Reed of the Reds (a part of the Johnny Cueto flip this past summer) could change the calculus of the transactions that brought them to their current organizations, in the estimation of Callis.
  • ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden provides his breakdown of the single most important missing piece for every team in the league in an Insider piece. Looking down his list, it’s notable how many clubs he cites as needing a corner outfielder. That market figures to explode at some point early in 2016.

Quick Hits: Shapiro, Kendrick, Chapman, Parra

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Mark Shapiro’s tenure as president of the Blue Jays hasn’t exactly been met with a full embrace by the team’s fans, but he tells John Lott of the National Post that he’s focused on the job at hand rather than worrying about criticism. “I think it’s just inefficient for me to spend a lot of time and energy on that,” says Shapiro. “What I think fans ultimately want is for me to work for this team and make it as good as it can possibly be. If I spend my energy worrying about how to be popular, it’ll be time away from doing the job. That’s not what I’m going to do.” The piece offers a lengthy and interesting look at the veteran executive, and is well worth a full read.

Here are a few more stray notes from around the game:

  • When asked about free agent second baseman Howie Kendrick today, Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi said that the organization “feel[s] pretty set” at the position at this point, as Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times tweets. The Dodgers will utilize Chase Utley and Kike Hernandez there, he said, indicating that there’s little reason for the club to pursue a reunion with Kendrick. Otherwise, per Zaidi, the team could still add another starter and is “still evaluating” its options in the bullpen (via J.P. Hoornstra of the Los Angeles News Group, on Twitter).
  • Zaidi also addressed the Dodgers’ reported deal with the Reds for Aroldis Chapman, via another Shaikin tweet. Los Angeles wasn’t “comfortable making the move” and “moved on” after allegations of a domestic dispute involving Chapman surfaced.
  • Unsurprisingly, Gerardo Parra is expected to wait to sign until the top of the outfield market sheds some names, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports tweets. He is still drawing interest from the Royals, Nationals, Giants, and Angels, per the report.
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a broader look at the outfield market and wonders what teams could be readying to spring. The Nats top his list, followed by four AL clubs: the White Sox, Orioles, Tigers, and Angels. I agree with Sherman’s assessment that the market will still likely pay these players, as I recently wrote. As an anonymous GM told Sherman: “You will have some owners soon say, ‘Wow, we can have this guy rather than what we have now.’ That is when the aggressiveness comes back in.”

NL Notes: Dews, Nationals, Desmond, Baez, Reds

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The Braves organization suffered a difficult loss over the weekend, as long-time coach, advisor, and instructor Bobby Dews passed away at 76 years of age. MLB.com’s Mark Bowman explains how deeply embedded he was in the team’s fabric, even as he spent less time around the ballclub in recent years. We join all those around the league in tipping our cap to Dews and offering our condolences to his family and friends.

A few notes from the National League …

  • Following the Nationals’ reported agreement with Stephen Drew on a one-year deal, Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post breaks down what the club’s bench could look like. As Janes notes, the addition of Drew will give first-year Nationals manager Dusty Baker four left-handed bats on the bench (Jose Lobaton, Clint Robinson and Matt den Dekker being the others, as things stand). His versatility, as well as the versatility of fellow newcomer Daniel Murphy (who can also handle third base, first base and, in a pinch, left field) gives Baker plenty of options to mix and match. A significant addition may or may not be coming, Janes writes, noting that the pursuit of top free agents such as Jason Heyward and Ben Zobrist at least indicates that the club has money to spend. However, even if the team doesn’t land an additional center field option, the much-needed addition of some left-handed options in recent weeks has brightened the 2016 outlook.
  • Former Nationals shortstop Ian Desmond has long been rumored to be dabbling in the idea of signing as a Zobrist-esque super-utility player, and ESPN.com’s Buster Olney suggests the Giants could be a fit for him in such a role. Desmond could be the regular left fielder, even see time in center, and function as a reserve or injury replacement in the infield, Olney reasons.
  • Speaking of converting infielders to the outfield grass, Cubs youngster Javier Baez has seen time in center field in the Puerto Rican winter league, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat noted recently. It doesn’t seem that the organization is looking to press him into regular duty there, at least at present, but would at least like to have the option of deploying him in the outfield on occasion.
  • The Reds’ two Rule 5 picks have a solid chance of sticking with the club, C. Trent Rosecrans writes for Baseball America. Outfielder Jake Cave (from the Yankees) makes for a good fit because he hits from the left side, assistant GM Nick Krall tells Rosecrans. And Krall adds that southpaw Chris O’Grady (via the Angels) has shown an ability to retire batters on both sides of the box, with good command helping to make up for average stuff.

Diamondbacks Still Seeking Offense, Have Spoken To Howie Kendrick

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Though much of the heavy lifting for the Diamondbacks has been accomplished this winter by adding both Zack Greinke and Shelby Miller to the fold, GM Dave Stewart tells the Arizona Republic’s Nick Piecoro that he still hopes to add another bat. “We did give away a certain amount of offense with Inciarte,” said Stewart in reference to Ender Inciarte, whom the D-backs sent to the Braves as part of the package to acquire Miller. “I’m not by any means thinking that (Yasmany) Tomas isn’t capable of giving us back what we lost, it’s just he didn’t prove that last year. Just to be sure, I wouldn’t mind adding a little more offense.”

The D-backs didn’t reach out to Daniel Murphy’s representatives before the longtime Met signed a three-year deal with the Nationals, but they’ve been in touch with Howie Kendrick’s representatives, Stewart tells Piecoro. However, the GM didn’t sound optimistic about the chances of getting something done, telling Piecoro: “I just don’t know how far we’re going to get down the road with that.” Piecoro notes that, in particular, Stewart sounded reluctant to surrender a second draft pick to add a free agent after already forefeiting his first pick in next year’s draft to sign Greinke.

Arizona has been linked to second base upgrade on more than one occasion this winter, as the team was also said to have discussed a swap that would’ve sent Aaron Hill to Cincinnati in exchange for Brandon Phillips. That deal would’ve saved the Reds some money on Phillips’ contract while giving the D-backs a boost in the infield, but a source tells Piecoro that Arizona wasn’t comfortable with the amount of Phillips’ 2017 salary that Cincinnati wanted the D-backs to assume. (There’s also the case of whether Phillips would’ve waived the no-trade protection that comes with his full 10-and-5 rights; he reportedly declined to do so when approached about a trade to the Nationals.)

The infield would seem like a logical spot to upgrade the offense after Nick Ahmed and Chris Owings both failed to provide meaningful offense in 2015, but Stewart said that the club has “every reason to believe” that Owings will “definitely” rebound in 2016 after being slowed by a problematic shoulder in 2015 and wouldn’t rule out adding an extra outfielder to the mix instead. As for Ahmed’s offense, I’d imagine the team isn’t as concerned with how much he does or doesn’t produce given his outstanding defense at shortstop (+20 DRS, +16.1 UZR/150). Stewart did leave open the possibility that the team could “go out and get a guy who is a proven offensive player and try to add him to the mix somewhere,” and, certainly, Kendrick would seem to fit that description.

The bullpen also remains a need for Arizona, but Stewart tells Piecoro that the price of acquiring relief help on the trade market is too high at this point, especially after already depleting his farm system by trading a pair of Top 100 prospects — Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair — to Atlanta in the Miller trade. Piecoro writes that some combination of Enrique Burgos, Evan Marshall, Silvino Bracho and Jake Barrett could be leaned upon to complement the likes of Brad Ziegler, Daniel Hudson, Andrew Chafin, Randall Delgado and Josh Collmenter in the bullpen. From my vantage point, that would leave manager Chip Hale without much in the way of quality left-handed relief pitching, so there certainly seems to be reason to believe that the Snakes could add some left-handed bullpen arms, be it on the free-agent market or the trade market. There are a number of low-cost lefty relievers on the market that could provide some value on one-year deals or even minor league pacts.

NL East Notes: Zimmerman, Howard, Chapman, Murphy, Kazmir, Span

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The attorneys for first basemen Ryan Zimmerman of the Nationals and Ryan Howard of the Phillies have sent letters to Al Jazeera demanding that the news agency publicly retract its report suggesting that the two players have used banned PEDs, Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post reports. The spark for the demand appears to have been a correction to the article accompanying the documentary at the Al Jazeera web site, in which editors noted: “An earlier version of this article reported on an allegation about possible links between Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Howard and human growth hormone. The substance alleged was Delta 2, not HGH.”

MLBTR has obtained a copy of the demand for retraction, which states: “Tuesday, Al Jazeera tried sneaking out a correction which acknowledges major errors in their story about our clients Ryan Zimmerman and Ryan Howard.  The original defamatory ’report’ connected our clients to the use of HGH, but Al Jazeera has now admitted this defamatory accusation was wholly false and unsubstantiated.  Al Jazeera’s acknowledgment confirms their unforgivable sloppiness and the recklessness of its publication of this false story.  Al Jazeera must retract the remaining false allegations against our clients immediately.” As Svrluga notes, such a demand letter can be a prerequisite to bringing suit for defamation in some jurisdictions.

Here are some notes from around the NL East:

  • The Marlins tried to acquire ace closer Aroldis Chapman from the Reds before he was shipped off to the Yankees, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports on Twitter. But Miami was obviously unwilling to beat the offer put forth by New York. Still, it’s interesting to learn of the effort. Despite dabbling in some rather significant potential transactions, the Fish have yet to pull off any major moves this winter.
  • Daniel Murphy turned down a four-year offer because he preferred the Nationals’ chances at contention, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports. It’s not clear, of course, precisely what difference in the overall dollar amounts would have been involved.
  • Signing Murphy and Stephen Drew — to go with the flurry of bullpen additions earlier this winter — doesn’t necessarily wrap up the Nationals’ offseason business, of course. Wagner explains that the team is still considering changes in the pitching department. The team “has interest” in free agent lefty Scott Kazmir, per the report. Washington could consider looking for a good market opportunity, says Wagner, but the team would likely deal another starter (he suggests Gio Gonzalez) to address another need if a rotation piece is added. And, of course, the club is still listening and considering its options at the back of the bullpen.
  • The Nationals have also long been said to be pursuing an addition in the outfield, particularly one capable of spending time in center. I ran through some of the many options back in November, and Wagner takes an updated look in the above-linked piece. As he explains, though, none of the obviously available options makes for a perfect fit. It’s no surprise to hear that the team is “working” to add such a piece after the Murphy signing, as Jon Morosi of FOX Sports recently tweeted.
  • Having already added a center field-capable player of their own in Alejandro De Aza, the Mets won’t be present when Denard Span works out for teams, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports on Twitter. That is not terribly surprising to learn at this point, of course. It’s worth noting, also, that Wagner’s report includes a note that, while the Nationals haven’t ruled out a return, there is some internal concern over Span’s health.

Reactions To And Effects Of The Aroldis Chapman Trade

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Earlier today, the Yankees made a drastic move to upgrade the bullpen, acquiring Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a four-player package including third baseman Eric Jagielo, right-hander Rookie Davis, right-hander Caleb Cotham and second baseman Tony Renda. Given the domestic abuse allegations surrounding Chapman and the Yankees’ newfound bulk of elite relievers, there are no shortage of reactions to to this move. Here are some of the early reaction pieces and ripple effects from the trade…

  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman spoke to the media shortly after the trade was announced and said his “intent” is to hang onto Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances, using both in conjunction with Chapman at the back of the bullpen (via ESPN New York’s Wallace Matthews). Wallace notes that Cashman could eventually change course and move Miller, perhaps in a trade for a controllable starter (while also shedding some payroll), though Cashman himself gave no indication of such a scenario playing out. The YES Network’s Jack Curry, in fact, tweets that Cashman said he called Miller shortly after the news broke and said he intends to keep all three relievers.
  • As MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch writes, Cashman said the Yankees did as much due diligence as possible in looking into Chapman’s legal troubles and the possible suspension he faces from commissioner Rob Manfred under MLB’s new domestic violence policy. Cashman somewhat delicately noted that the asking price on Chapman has been “modified” in light of the allegations — that is to say, it has dropped significantly — which led the Yankees to make the acquisition. Said Cashman: “Certainly there are some serious issues here that are in play. I think it’s certainly reflected in some of the acquisition price. There’s risk, and I understand that. … We’ve done as much due diligence on the subject at hand as we possibly can, and we’ve completed the transaction based on a lot of that due diligence.”
  • Just how much has the price dropped? Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the Reds wanted Aaron Judge and one of Luis Severino or Gary Sanchez at the trade deadline. Sherman also looks atáthe reasons for the Yankees’ pursuit of Chapman in spite of the allegations, noting that the trade creates a potentially historic bullpen trio, helps to protect a fragile rotation, preserves the Yankees’ top prospects and changes the narrative that the team is not spending this offseason in an effort to win now. (Although, the trade certainly creates the opportunity to launch a far less flattering narrative.) Owner Hal Steinbrenner offered the following comment when asked by Sherman: “I approved the trade after significant thought and research, as I do with any significant trade.”
  • Within his piece, Sherman notes that a suspension is most likely forthcoming for Chapman, but it will probably be “more in the 10-25 game range” than the 40-plus games that would cost Chapman his shot at free agency next winter. (Chapman currently has five years, 34 days of MLB service, meaning that if he misses 46 days of the regular season, he’d fall shy of six years of service and miss out on free agency eligibility.)
  • The Yankees have built a laughably good bullpen on paper, writes Fangraphs’ Jeff Sullivan, who notes that the Steamer projection system now forecasts that the Yankees will have far and away the game’s best bullpen in terms of wins above replacement. However, he also notes that the upgrade might not be quite as drastic as some would think, because while Chapman comes with quite a bit of name value, the actual difference between him and lefty Justin Wilson, who departed in a trade after an excellent season, isn’t as stark as many might expect.
  • ESPN’s Keith Law writes (Insider subscription required) that the Reds “must have wanted to get rid” of Chapman, because the package they received isn’t exactly inspiring. Law calls the package “all quantity but little quality,” noting that Davis has the chance to be an average MLB starter (roughly a No. 4 starter, he specifies) and Cotham can pitch in the bullpen right now. Jagielo will hit for some power but can’t play third base, in Law’s estimation, and has plenty of injury issues. The Reds didn’t get enough for a player of Chapman’s caliber, Law opines, but he also feels that the Yankees are sending the wrong message by acquiring a player with Chapman’s allegations hanging over his head.
  • The Reds aren’t done trading after this move, president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty told reporters, including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Jocketty said that the Reds will make more moves “if we can,” and he wouldn’t close the door on potentially trading Brandon Phillips even after the veteran invoked his no-trade clause to block a move to the Nationals earlier this month. (Jocketty did note that it’s likely Phillips will be with the team in 2016, though, adding that he hasn’t spoken to him since the failed Nationals trade.) The trade highlights Jocketty’s desire to add players that are reasonably close to the Major Leagues, Rosecrans writes, as each has already seen action at the Double-A level or higher. “That’s what I’m looking for.  I want guys that can help us the next year or two,” said Jocketty. “I told our guys when we were researching different clubs that it’s nice to have guys who are long-range prospects, but we need guys in the next couple of years and that’s why we’re looking more for Double-A and Triple-A guys.” Cotham will probably pitch for the Reds in 2016, Jocketty said, and Jagielo, too, could be with the team next season, even if he has to do so in a bench capacity initially.
  • The Yankees are, in some ways, emulating the model that the Royals rode to a championship, writes Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post. The team now boasts a three-headed bullpen monster that rivals Kansas City’s trio of Kelvin Herrera, Wade Davis and Greg Holland, and they’re also prioritizing young, up-the-middle players that can improve their defense (notably, he points out recent acquisitions of Aaron Hicks and Didi Gregorius). The Yankees differ from Kansas City in the sense that their powerhouse bullpen was constructed largely via financial muscle, but the parallels, at least, are there in some regards.
  • Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com have updated the list of the Reds’ Top 30 prospects to include both Davis and Jagielo, who rank eighth and ninth, respectively, among Cincinnati farmhands in their eyes.

Yankees Acquire Aroldis Chapman

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After months of trying to add a third dominant reliever to their bullpen, the Yankees on Monday announced the acquisition of left-hander Aroldis Chapman from the Reds in exchange for a quartet of minor leaguers. Third baseman Eric Jagielo will head to Cincinnati, as will second baseman Tony Renda and right-handers Rookie Davis and Caleb Cotham. Chapman will presumably slide into the Yankees’ closer role, combining with fellow southpaw Andrew Miller and right-hander Dellin Betances to create perhaps the most formidable bullpen trio in all of Major League Baseball next season.

Aroldis Chapman

Chapman, 27, is arguably baseball’s best relief pitcher, but he comes with significant off-field baggage in the form of domestic violence allegations that ultimately halted a trade to the Dodgers from being finalized earlier this month. Chapman is currently being investigated by the league, and there’s a very real chance that he’ll serve some form of suspension from commissioner Rob Manfred under the league’s newly implemented domestic violence policy. What type of suspension is up to Manfred, though as many have pointed out, there are service time implications in any suspension that could impact Chapman’s free agency; if Chapman misses more than 45 days of the regular season due to suspension, he’ll fall shy of reaching six years of Major League service, which would prevent him from becoming a free agent next winter. A suspension would also lessen the financial commitment for Chapman in 2016; MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz currently projects the lefty to earn $12.9MM in 2016 after earning $8.05MM in 2015.

Strictly looking at Chapman’s on-field resumé, the results are astounding. In 2015, he worked to a 1.63 ERA with 15.7 K/9, 4.5 BB/9 and a 37.1 percent ground-ball rate. Over the past four seasons in Cincinnati, the Cuban-born phenom has delivered an exceptional 1.90 ERA while averaging 16.1 strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings to go along with an average of 36 saves per season. Chapman is known for his blistering fastball; the left-hander averaged 100.3 mph on his heater in 2014 and followed that up with a similarly incredulous 99.5 mph average this past season. His addition could free the Yankees to trade Miller or Betances, but Joel Sherman of the New York Post hears that the team’s initial plan is to keep all three in an effort to effectively shorten games to six-inning affairs (Twitter link). That’s a bit hyperbolic in nature, of course, but probably not as much as skeptics might think; as MLB.com’s Andrew Simon points out (on Twitter), the Yankees now possess the pitchers with the three highest strikeout percentages in all of baseball from 2014-15 in Chapman (46.3 percent), Miller (41.6 percent) and Betances (39.5 percent).

That trio will be important for a Yankees team that is rife with uncertainty in the rotation. The club’s starting five currently projects as Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino, Michael Pineda, Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia. (Ivan Nova could be in the mix as well, though he is reportedly being shopped.) Tanaka pitched through a small tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow in 2015, while Pineda has a long history of shoulder issues and Sabathia struggled through knee injuries before ending the season in rehab for alcohol abuse. Even Severino, who was dominant in his rookie showing, has never thrown more than last season’s 161 2/3 innings in a single season. The ability to shorten games with an elite bullpen triumvirate would lessen the expectations placed on what looks to be a potentially shaky rotation.

The Reds will be adding two minor leaguers from the Yankees’ second tier of prospects (Jagielo and Davis) in addition to a pair of prospects that didn’t crack the Top 30 lists of either MLB.com or Baseball America (Cotham, Renda; hat tip to BA’s John Manuel, on Twitter). BA considers Davis the best of the bunch, having recently ranked him sixth in the Yankees’ farm system. MLB.com, meanwhile, has Jagielo sixth and Davis rated 10th.

Jagielo, 23, was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft out of Notre Dame. A knee injury that required arthroscopic surgery shortened his 2015 season, but when he was healthy, he batted .284/.347/.495 with nine homers in 58 games/248 plate appearances at the Double-A level. MLB.com’s scouting report notes that Jagielo is strong and has “good loft in his swing,” giving him the ability to drive the ball to all fields. His penchant for strikeouts (23.3 percent in 2015; 24.4 percent in 2014) is a red flag, but MLB.com notes that he draws enough walks to post sound OBP numbers even if his batting average is lackluster. The question surrounding Jagielo is whether he’ll stay at third base or move across the diamond to first, as questions about his range and arm strength are oft-cited strikes against him. Despite those potential issues, MLB.com did rate him as the No. 7 third-base prospect in the game.

As for Davis, Norris notes in his scouting report over at BA that alterations to his delivery led to a breakout of sorts in 2015. Davis pitched to a combined 3.86 ERA with 8.9 K/9 against 1.8 BB/9 in in 130 2/3 innings between Class-A Advanced and Double-A. The mechanical changes resulted in increased velocity, per Norris, who writes that Davis sits 93 to 95 mph with his heater — a pitch that is complemented by a sharp mid-70s curve and a low-80s changeup. BA indicates that he could be a mid-rotation starter, while MLB.com notes that he has good control but spotty command (i.e. throws strikes but doesn’t command the pitches within the strike zone) and could be best suited for a relief role, where his velocity could approach triple digits.

The Yankees acquired Renda, 24, from the Nationals this past season in exchange for right-hander David Carpenter. The fleet-footed infielder batted .269/.330/.358 in 532 Double-A plate appearances between the two organizations, adding three homers and 23 steals (in 29 attempts). Renda rated 12th among Nationals farmhands last season and was 22nd on MLB.com’s Top 30 at the time of the trade to the Yankees in early June. BA praised his compact swing and line-drive stroke in last winter’s scouting report, noting that his bat has a chance to be above-average, and he’s tough to strike out. He’s drawn praise for his makeup and work ethic as well, and last offseason Fangraphs’ scouting report praised his advanced bat control while noting that he lacked power.

Cotham, who turned 28 in November, made his big league debut with the Yankees this past season but struggled, yielding seven runs on 14 hits (four homers) and a walk with 11 strikeouts in 9 2/3 innings. That 11-to-1 K/BB ratio is encouraging, however, as is the 1.74 ERA that Cotham recorded in 31 innings at the Triple-A level, where he struck out 30 batters and walked just five. Cotham worked exclusively out of the bullpen between Double-A and Triple-A in 2015, totaling a 2.21 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.1 BB/9. He could potentially step directly into the Reds’ bullpen, where he’d bring a fastball that averaged 92.6 mph in his brief big league tenure this past season.

Ultimately, the Reds added mid-level prospects and an MLB-ready bullpen arm in exchange for one year of the game’s best closer, it would seem. While the return is somewhat disappointing in a vacuum, it’s clear that Chapman’s domestic violence allegations rightly lowered the asking price and prevented Cincinnati from maximizing his value in a trade. It’s easy to speak now with the benefit of hindsight, but the reported offer of Braden Shipley plus a pair of other Top 10 prospects from the Diamondbacks in July does appear to be a stronger package than the one received by Cincinnati today. However, with the reason for Cincinnati’s reduced leverage in trade talks being entirely out of the team’s control, it’s not fair to simply state that they should have taken that deal. Jose Peraza, after all, was said to be heading to the Reds from the Dodgers as part of the trade package with L.A. before Chapman’s off-field issues derailed those discussions.

For the Reds, who have also traded Todd Frazier this winter (in a trade that was met with lukewarm reviews, at best, for Cincinnati’s return), the Chapman trade seems unlikely to spell the end of their offseason rebuilding efforts. Cincinnati has also attempted to move second baseman Brandon Phillips, though he reportedly elected not to waive his no-trade protection to approve a deal to the Nationals. Right fielder Jay Bruce is also no stranger to trade rumors, either, and could see his name circulate on the rumor mill with increased frequency as the Reds seek to stockpile more young talent.

Baseball America’s Josh Norris first reported that the two teams were nearing a trade (Twitter link). Jack Curry of the YES Network reported that a trade involving Chapman was close (Twitter link) and later tweeted that four minor leaguers were going to Cincinnati. Norris reported Davis’ inclusion in the deal (Twitter link). FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweeted that the agreement as in place.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NL Notes: Cabrera, Cardinals, Phillips

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In 2015, Matt Duffy thrust himself into the baseball limelight for his play on the field as well as his social media presence, Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle writes.  As far as the baseball part goes, Duffy says that he isn’t stressing over whether he can manage a repeat performance in 2016.

“I think it’s human to think about that,” Duffy said. “But you just get back to what made me able to do it. I wasn’t worrying about hitting .300 or hitting ten homers.  I did it by focusing on the most simple thing: See the ball as big as I can and put a good swing on it. As soon as you think about other people’s expectations, you lock yourself up trying to do the simplest things.”

Here’s more out of the National League:

  • Mark Simon of ESPN.com looked at new Mets shortstop Asdrubal Cabrera and stacked him up against everyone else at his position at shortstop.  Ultimately, Cabrera does not grade out as an elite option, but he is an upgrade over what the Mets had there prevously.  A major league scout told Simon that Cabrera profiles similarly to former teammate Jhonny Peralta. “I don’t think he’s a top-15 shortstop, but he’s in the middle of the pack,” said the scout. “What I like about in him is his ability to switch-hit, and I like his hands defensively. Everything he gets to, he’ll catch. Range-wise, he’s limited, but he’s still a quality baseball player. He knows how to do little things that help his team win. He may not match up to the kids at shortstop athletically, but he’ll surpass them in baseball intelligence. His brain is top-10. He’s still a very good guy to have on a major-league roster.” Cabrera inked a deal with the Mets which will guarantee him $18.5MM over the next two seasons plus a club option that could keep him in place through 2018.  As it stands, Cabrera might go down as the Mets’ biggest free agent splash this winter.
  • The Cardinals must focus on offensive development to remain a perennial contender, Jeff Gordon of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch opines.  Thanks to revenue sharing, even smaller market teams are able to lock up their young bats well before they can ever hit the open market.  Historically, the Cardinals have shied away from the high-ceiling potential of high school hitters in favor of college players with quick developmental potential.  Now, with three selections within the first 40 or so picks, Gordon believes that the Cards can afford to go with more long-range prospects.
  • Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News cannot understand why Reds Brandon Phillips refused to sign off on a trade that would have sent him to the Nationals.  The second baseman reportedly wanted enhancements made to his current pact, which calls for him to earn $27MM over the next two years.  McCoy views the veteran as greedy for making those demands and can’t fathom why he wouldn’t want to play for a winning team like the Nationals, especially when it means that he could have been reunited with Dusty Baker.  Of course, after the Nats agreed to sign Daniel Murphy, there’s no real chance of that deal coming back together.
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