We’ll be reviewing the offseason moves of all thirty teams over the next several weeks. First up: the Cincinnati Reds.
After winning just 64 games in 2015, the Reds spent the winter continuing their rebuild, with what appear to be tepid results.
Major League Signings
- RP Blake Wood: one year, $600K
Notable Minor League Signings
- J.C. Ramirez, Carlos Triunfel, Ryan Mattheus (re-signed), Pedro Villarreal (re-signed), Jordan Pacheco, Jonathan Sanchez
Trades And Claims
- Acquired 3B Eric Jagielo, 2B Tony Renda, P Caleb Cotham and P Rookie Davis from Yankees for RP Aroldis Chapman
- Acquired 2B Jose Peraza, 2B/OF Brandon Dixon and OF Scott Schebler as part of a three-team trade for 3B Todd Frazier
- Selected P Chris O’Grady from Angels in the Rule 5 Draft
- Selected OF Jake Cave from Yankees in the Rule 5 Draft
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
Needs Addressed
After an ugly 2015 campaign, the Reds faced the likelihood of another bleak year in the tough NL Central, so with a negligible chance of contending, they opted to continue trading veterans. They had already dealt Mat Latos and Alfredo Simon prior to the 2015 season and Johnny Cueto, Mike Leake and Marlon Byrd after they fell out of contention, so their efforts this winter hardly were new territory.
In filling out their 2016 team, then, the Reds mostly focused on acquiring ready or nearly-ready youngsters, as well as a handful of cheaper veterans. Of the players acquired in their two significant trades this winter, Jose Peraza, Scott Schebler and Caleb Cotham appear likely to contribute in 2016, with others potentially entering the picture near the end of the season.
The Reds also grabbed a variety of low-cost arms to fill out a bullpen that will be without star closer Aroldis Chapman and 2015 contributors Burke Badenhop and Manny Parra — they re-signed low-wattage arms Ryan Mattheus and Pedro Villarreal, and added Blake Wood on their only big-league deal of the offseason. Wood pitched the 2015 season in the Pirates’ Triple-A bullpen and hasn’t appeared in the Majors since April 2014, but he might be more interesting than his modest pedigree suggests. He’s a very hard thrower who took a step forward with his control last year, with a 3.8 BB/9 that was better than his career marks in that category in the Majors or Triple-A. In any case, with Chapman gone, the Reds will go forward with a weakened bullpen built around J.J. Hoover, Jumbo Diaz and Tony Cingrani.
Questions Remaining
There’s plenty for the Reds to sort out in their rotation. Homer Bailey (elbow) and John Lamb (back) won’t be ready to start the season, but manager Bryan Price still recently named nine potential rotation candidates — Anthony DeSclafani, Raisel Iglesias, Jon Moscot, Michael Lorenzen, Cody Reed, Robert Stephenson, Brandon Finnegan, Tim Melville and Jonathan Sanchez. DeSclafani and Iglesias appear very likely to win spots, but that still leaves three more. Of the remaining contenders, top prospect Stephenson is the most interesting, although he walked 27 batters in his first 55 2/3 innings at Triple-A last season, so there’s little reason for the Reds to rush him to the big leagues. The same goes for Reed, who pitched well at Double-A Pensacola after arriving in the Cueto trade last summer but hasn’t even appeared at Triple-A yet. Finnegan, a key to the Cueto trade, is perhaps a more realistic bet to win a spot (although he could also wind up in the bullpen).
Aside from Finnegan and Iglesias, who’s a strikeout pitcher who quietly had a strong rookie season in 2015 and could take a step forward this year, the Reds’ likely April rotation doesn’t look like anything special. (Perhaps one could include DeSclafani with Finnegan and Iglesias, since DeSclafani notched a remarkable 65 strikeouts and nine walks from the beginning of last August through the end of the season.) In fact, one could argue that the Reds should have added a starting pitcher on a one-year deal to fill a rotation spot for a few months and hopefully land a prospect at the deadline. But the Reds’ starting pitching could get downright interesting by the summer, with the returns of Bailey and Lamb and the potential promotions of Stephenson and/or Reed.
It is, unfortunately, harder to see similar upside among the Reds’ young position players (although it’s possible top prospect Jesse Winker could join the team’s outfield late in the season). The Reds’ offense will again be anchored by Joey Votto, one of the best in the game at controlling the strike zone. Votto, though, appears likely to take a step back after a monster 7.4 fWAR season in 2015, and the Reds are also subtracting Todd Frazier from a collection of position players that finished 20th in the Majors in fWAR last season.
Some of Frazier’s loss could be balanced by the return of catcher Devin Mesoraco, who missed most of last season. Brayan Pena and Tucker Barnhart were capable, but little more, in Mesoraco’s absence, and Mesoraco’s bat could be a big help. His ability to return to health and productivity behind the plate could be a key factor in the team’s contention timeline.
The problem is that the position players now slated to join the Reds’ once-mighty lineup — Schebler, Adam Duvall, Peraza — appear to have limited upside. Schebler had two very good years in the minors in 2013 and 2014 but had a pedestrian 2015 at Triple-A; he looks like he’ll have enough power to stick in the big leagues, but he might be a little stretched as a regular. Duvall could have 30-homer power, but with plenty of strikeouts and a low batting average, and he’s already 27. And Peraza possesses obvious tools but is very hard to get a read on — he has plenty of baserunning and defensive ability, but his complete lack of power figures to hold him back offensively.
These are, perhaps, glass-half-empty evaluations of these players, but it wasn’t long ago that the Reds had a fair number of valuable veterans, and so far, it appears they haven’t gotten much for them (with the possible exception of their return in the Cueto trade). They’ll now spend the next couple years giving tryouts to various players acquired in those underwhelming deals.
Some of that state of affairs isn’t really the club’s fault. Chapman’s domestic violence allegations reduced his trade value to pennies on the dollar, and the Reds also had offseason trades scuttled when Brandon Phillips refused to waive his no-trade rights and when medical issues derailed a deal that would have sent Jay Bruce to Toronto.
The real victim of Chapman’s alleged actions, of course, was his girlfriend. But looking at the matter from a team perspective, the situation had to have been frustrating for the Reds. They had previously had a deal in place that would have sent Chapman to the Dodgers for two top prospects. Reports indicated that neither of those were among the Dodgers’ best, but Peraza’s name repeatedly came up. Peraza, despite his flaws, is clearly a more interesting prospect than any of the four the Reds ultimately acquired for Chapman, and getting Peraza in the Chapman deal would have allowed the Reds to try to acquire other talent in return for Frazier. Instead, the Reds got Caleb Cotham, Rookie Davis, Eric Jagielo and Tony Renda in return for Chapman, getting only a ready-now reliever (Cotham), a mid-grade starting pitching prospect (Davis) and two somewhat fringy position players in return for perhaps the game’s most dominant closer. There are scenarios in which the deal turns out well for the Reds — maybe Davis will improve his command and blossom into a good starter, or maybe Jagielo’s above-average power will translate better than expected against advanced pitching. Overall, though, it looks like the Reds came up far short of what might have been expected heading to the offseason.
Deal Of Note
Perhaps the Reds’ most disappointing deal, though, was the three-team trade that sent Frazier to the White Sox. This time, there were no obstacles standing in the way of the Reds trading their star, and unlike Chapman (who will, even with his recent suspension, still be eligible for free agency after 2016), Frazier still has two years of control remaining. Given his plus power, strong defense and reasonable contract situation, there was no reason for the Reds not to get good value for Frazier. It appears, however, that they didn’t. Peraza (pictured) is certainly a strong prospect and could ultimately become a fixture at second base once Phillips departs, but he’s limited by his extreme lack of power and inability to draw walks. There is precedent for a player like Peraza having lots of success — perhaps he could become the next Dee Gordon. But that outcome, or anything close to it, may be optimistic.
It’s the other two players in the deal, though, who are the head-scratchers. Schebler’s future likely is in left field, but the evidence of whether he can hit enough to stick at that position is mixed. And Brandon Dixon’s inclusion in the trade was strange, since he’s been unimpressive at every minor-league stop other than a brief outburst at Class A+ Rancho Cucamonga early last season, and he turned 24 shortly after the deal. Strangely, the Dodgers, who essentially sent three of their own young players to Cincinnati in exchange for three more youngsters from the White Sox, appear to have done significantly better than the Reds did, getting a hard-throwing and advanced starting pitching prospect in Frankie Montas (although Montas is now set to miss the beginning of the season after having rib surgery), plus young second baseman Micah Johnson (who has better power and plate discipline than Peraza, though he doesn’t profile as well defensively) and outfielder Trayce Thompson (who has struggled to make headway in the high minors but had a good big-league debut last year and looks like a much better talent than Dixon). Time will tell whether the Reds got the right players, but the consensus seems to have been that their return was underwhelming, and that they might have done better by cutting out the Dodgers and dealing with the White Sox directly.
Overview
The Reds didn’t figure to contend in 2016, and they’ll spend it as rebuilding teams traditionally do — sorting through young talent, enjoying the rights to a plum draft pick (No. 2 overall), and setting their sights on the future. Given that they were built around an aging and increasingly expensive core, it’s hard to argue with that plan. What is debatable is whether they’re implementing it well, and as enthusiastically as they should. The returns from their trades so far are likely to produce some solid contributors, but perhaps not as much value as Reds fans might have hoped, given Chapman and Frazier’s obvious value on the field. The Reds have, to some degree, been victims of circumstance, and it’s not easy to get teams to give up top prospects these days. Still, they probably haven’t gotten enough.
Meanwhile, there will still be several key veterans left on the 2016 team. The Reds could hardly have been expected to trade Bailey while he was injured, and Phillips and Bruce, even if their deals had gone through, probably would not have returned significant talent anyway. But there’s been virtually no discussion of a trade involving Votto. In fact, prior to a brief update on Votto in late February, there hadn’t been an update at MLBTR in over four years regarding the possibility of a Votto trade.
If the Reds are rebuilding, perhaps a deal involving Votto shouldn’t be taken off of the table. Votto is now inarguably the face of their franchise, and he’s under team control through 2024, so they might be planning on him still contributing when they’re ready to compete again. Given that Votto is already 32, though, that seems like an overly ambitious plan. After Votto’s monster 2015, he ought to have considerable trade value, despite his huge contract. There’s also the possibility that the back end of that deal (which guarantees Votto $25MM per season through 2023, when he will be 39) could hamper the Reds’ ability to compete in the future.
Of course, it’s easy for an outsider to say that a rebuilding team should trade its superstar. The value Votto could bring to the 2016 Reds in terms of their marketability and watchability is much harder to quantify than his on-field value. But the Reds’ situation with regard to Votto is typical of the plight many rebuilding teams face. The quickest path forward seems to be to turn their backs on the past, but refusing to turn around can be painful.
What do MLBTR readers think of the club’s offseason? Weigh in on the poll below (link to poll for mobile app users)…
I feel like the Reds would have been better off had they held onto Chapman, had him serve his inevitable suspension, then try to deal him in July after relievers had gotten hurt or underperformed.
Some contender would have certainly offered top prospects for him after the domestic thing was resolved. I think the Reds just panicked.
That and the fact that they wanted to get him off payroll.
To bad Votto’s contract is so huge he could really help some teams
I don’t believe O’Grady was claimed. He was taken with the Reds’ second pick in the Rule 5.
Thanks, fixed.
Rookie Davis turned a corner last year and is actually a pretty decent pitching prospect. Jagielo would be a much better prospect if he was able to handle 3rd better.
That Frazier deal is a definite head scratcher. They must have wanted Peraza badly. Which, I can’t figure out why since he is ready and is now blocked by Phillips. I don’t think his bat is strong enough to warrant a move to 3rd. Imo the author absolutely nailed it when he said they should have dealt with the White Sox themselves.
What interests me the most is not a potential Votto trade but what the Reds could bring back in return for some of their younger starters like Cozart and Mesoraco. Both have suffered injuries recently but their ceilings and playing positions of need for several teams could bring back some really good prospects. They will be a team to watch at the deadline for sure.
Peraza is moving back to SS, and isn’t blocked by anyone there. Peraza’s move back to SS avoids not only a competition against Phillips, but one against Alex Blandino.
A problem with the White Sox prospects was that Montas would merely be thrown into an already deep crop of minor league pitchers, while Micah Johnson can barely handle 2b defensively, and can seemingly only move to the outfield. At 25 Micah Johnson is an older prospect with less versatility and who’s blocked with the Reds. Maybe Johnson moves to CF, a position Peraza could also handle better.
The article didn’t adequately discuss the Reds’ depth of starting pitching prospects, with the upper minors loaded with strong rotation candidates.
Cozart is better than Peraza right now, so hes not pushing him off that spot.
We are definitely stacked depth wise on the starting pitching side and I think its undervalued.
Also, i’m a big believer in Schebler. I think hes going to turn a lot of heads this year when he gets the starting LF gig.
I don’t mean Peraza is stealing Cozart’s job, I expect Peraza to head to AAA until Cozart gets traded or hurt. He’s Cozart’s successor, not Brandon Phillips’. As soon as Cozart shows himself to be healthy he’ll be being dangled as a trade candidate.
The Reds do have a complicated infield future, with Suarez having the tools to play all around the infield, Peraza being able to play SS, 2b, and CF, and Blandino likely settling at either 2b or 3b. But I think Peraza is at the top of that SS depth chart.
I like Schebler as well and think he will surprise some. He was a little bit hidden in the Dodgers’ strong system. The main problem with the Frazier package was the third piece. Brandon Dixon looks like hot garbage. I would have been absolutely fine with the trade if the third piece in the deal actually had some upside.
Peraza doesnt have the arm for an everyday ss and profiles best as a utility player. And montas has touched 102 mph, there is no such thing as too much prospect depth. The white sox package was better.
Exactly what I thought about Peraza. Although his light bat would fit much better as a SS. If the Reds didn’t want additional pitching depth they could have easily flipped the prospects for positional player prospects from another team. What the Dodgers ended up with for basically being a middle man is much better than what the Reds got. I looked into Peraza pretty heavily last year when it was rumored that the Yankees were trying to pry him from the Braves. I wasn’t very impressed with him. He went from untouchable to traded by two teams in 6 months and the Dodgers could use a solid 2nd base prospect. I guess I shouldn’t really be judging this trade right now though. Montas could blow his arm out completely and Peraza could turn into the next Altuve. I will have to look back on this one in a couple of years.
Right,
The chappy and Frazier trades were pure poppy cock and should have been wait and see who is desperate for both, not hurry up and unload for who the GM thought might be good… I feel jocketty has been horrible even back when he signed homer Bailey over signing Johnny Cueto to the same contract 2 years ago, can’t see anything that he has done that’s good even hiring coaches…
Really? That seems like a bit of hyperbole. Jocketty traded a year of Alfredo Simon for five and a half years of Eugenio Suarez and Jonathan Crawford. He dealt a year of Latos for six years of Anthony Desclafani and Chad Wallach. Both of those deals were immediate wins. He also acquired Cody Reed, Brandon Finnegan, and John Lamb for two months of Cueto at the deadline. That trade is starting to shape up pretty nicely as well.
The returns for Frazier and Chapman were a bit underwhelming (not bad per se but definitely underwhelming); however, that doesn’t automatically negate the good work that Jocketty has done previously.
The best move was one that didnt’ happen. Trading Bruce now is a very bad idea. He’s under preformed his own standards over the past two seasons & the Reds would have been getting pennies on the dollar if they traded him.
The real elephant in the room is Votto. He’s a great player but his contract is going to hamstring the Red’s rebuild. A true rebuild doesn’t happen in one season. It takes time and a good plan. The Cubs, Pirates & Cards project very strong over the next 2-3 years. The Reds need to target ’18 – ’20. I’d really expect them to him shop at some point this season.
Votto’s contract is so large that it’s hard to move, and he has a no-trade clause, which he – like Phillips – has implied he’d use. Votto is not going anywhere if he doesn’t want to, and he’s given no signs of wanting to leave.
His contract hardly hamstrings the rebuild, he such a good hitter that he deserves that money. He’s a superstar they want to construct their rebuild around. He’s a big bat on a team that is, again, being built primarily around pitching and defense.
The path to the Reds rebuild involves arms like Iglesias, Stephenson, Reed, Finnegan, Lorenzen, DeSclafani, Rookie Davis, and Travieso… and bats like Votto, Winker, Mesoraco, Blandino, Suarez, and Peraza. Things look better with Votto in the lineup than $20m/year redistributed on lesser players, especially in a time of soaring contracts.
Jocketty gets a lot of criticism for decisions that I am pretty sure were forced upon him by the owner, Bob Castellini. Castellini, I suspect, essentially directed Jocketty to make the best trades he could immediately for Chapman and Frazier, both of whom arguably would have netted more at this year’s trade deadline. I think Castellini also had a lot to do with the decisions to overpay for Phillips and Bailey. Jocketty has made mistakes, of course, but much of the criticism directed against him by Reds fans would be more properly directed at Reds ownership.
Player get hurt or perform poorly wait to trade and maybe you can’t trade Chapman and Frazier.
Cubs should win 100+ games with so many vs. the Reds and Brewers. Pirates aren’t in Cubs class but should benefit enough too to win 90 and get wild card. Cards could go either way with so many health concerns.
We’ve read this commentary 100 times. This is just all regurgitation of what everyone has said. Be a little creative and have your own thoughts next time. I thought these articles were meant to project lineups, there is no mention of Suarez, nor of Hamilton and Cozart’s injury. At least do what every other writer does and wonder who is going to play LF. Sorry, but this is simple plagiarism of every other off season article.
We’re glad to receive criticism — even when, as here, I disagree with it. But I feel compelled to say …
1) Don’t accuse someone of plagiarism unless you have evidence to support it. I’m certain these are Charlie’s thoughts and words.
2) I’m not sure what makes you think these articles are intended to “project lineups.” They are intended to review the offseason transactions, as the titles clearly reflect.
Jeff, your article on Colorado today is an example. You basically covered their entire lineup while covering offseason activity. This article covered all the re-hash of negatives without giving a reader any concept of what those transactions did to the team they will field. Frazier is gone…ok…what happens now? Oh! Suarez.
Sorry, I just have a high standard with my MLBTR readings and this didn’t match up. Plagiarism was strong, I’m sorry. But there just wasn’t anything new or newsworthy
in the article.
Charlie, 3rd Paragraph, sentence 1 (in the parenthesis) under Questions Remaining has a typing error. It should say “Join” instead of “Joint”
Thanks, fixed.
I don’t think the Reds made out too bad this offseason. I feel like we are plenty deep in pitching now and position players I feel that we are sitting pretty good as well in the minors.
I think IF the players we got play to their potentional i think this is a pretty decent team. I wish we would have gotten at least 1 decent veteran for the pitching staff.. I think Aaron Harang is still available?..
LIne-up wise I feel the Reds will do just fine… You are only replacing 2 starters.. and Mesoraco could post similar Frazier stats.. and a platoon in LF will put up at least the same as the black hole thats been in LF for years.
If they can get ANY wins from the SP and hope Price doesn’t blow late inning situations like last year…. I think this could be a .500 team…. Im thinking this yerar will suprise some people.
I agree with the general sentiment.
We aren’t in THAT bad of shape, especially if we have a good/strong draft this year.
Reds now have the worst lineup in baseball, not sure what this discussion board has been thinking but it’s Votto and a bunch of guys that wouldn’t make a very good triple a team… Jocketty piled some arms but zero hitting talent which = a hundred loss season and no fans to go watch them lose 2-0 every game!
Any lineup that has Votto and Mesoraco in it will not be the worst in baseball. If the young pitching comes around I really think the Reds could surprise this people (and by that I mean winning 70-75 games.)
LOL! Gotta love optimism
I completely disagree.. Votto, Phillips, Cozart, Suarez, Mesoraco, and Bruce are all capable major league hitters. The lineup hasn’t changed that much from their playoff runs. It’s the pitching staff that needs to emerge.
I don’t know why everyone is crapping all over the prospects either. Bryce Harpers only come around once in a blue moon. Most prospects need to be developed and built into major league players.
It KILLS me that the same people complaining about Frazier being traded are the ones complaining about the prospect return we got for him.. Frazier himself was a late bloomer who studied under Scott Rolen (one of the best in recent memory to play the hot corner). If you went by his projections when he was Jose Peraza’s age, he would’ve been on exactly no-one’s radar.
Exactly! I think if the Reds start Peraza up here, and Brandon gets off his high horse and helps this kid out (just like Rolen with Frazier) I think he’ll be a pretty good ball player… i know prospects are hard to read especially when they’re not brought up in your system (which is the only thing that concerns me about all these prospects we got)
BP looks really distracted to me. Last night he muffs a DP opportunity and doesn’t even know there are two outs so he doesn’t score from 2nd. Not that it matters so much in Spring, but I think that blunder cost Disco getting the loss
Nick Hogan and lacherj… Phillips is a .260 hitter with no more pop, Bruce is a .220 hitter that has 1 good month a year, cozart is a .200 hitter that is hurt all the time, and mesoraco has had 1 good year and coming off hip surgery as a catcher only… When mike leake pitched he was our 4th best hitter in the lineup that has now lost Frazier.. Young good pitching but still young and no hitting equals no fans at games and 3-1 losses in a 100 loss season, with no hitting prospects in minors!
I just don’t think that’s a fair assessment. Especially Meso and Cozart. Mesoraco was only a starting catcher for one full season before his injury. Cozart didn’t have much more than that, and he was hitting .300 when he went down last year. Two years ago, over half this lineup was on a playoff team. Science and stats will only take you so far.
And it only means no butts in the seats because Reds fans can be real jerks…this is speaking as a Reds fan. Jocketty and Williams are going with the talent that’s closer to the majors because a full rebuild will drive away the fans and they’ll lose money. But, of course, the fans had already abandoned them before any of this happened.
Returns were too underwhelming for two stars– regardless of baggage–
Also, they should have signed 1 year reclamation projects to try to create more opportunities for deadline deals.
I think it was a matter of getting something versus nothing in return. They didn’t have much control left of any of the guys they let go of. Makes sense to me. I’d have liked to see it better too, but I still think they did pretty well.
Actually agree with the reclamation project assessment. I would’ve liked to see them bring Bronson back, and there are several viable options in that respect.
How can you say Schebler has limited upside, when he has some power, can run, and catch. His upside is left field, 280 hitter, 25 HR and a every day player.