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Astros Considering Six-Man Rotation

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Facing a daunting stretch of 29 games in 30 days, the Astros have considered moving to a six-man rotation for at least the next month, manager Joe Espada said last night (X link via The Athletic’s Chandler Rome).

Houston has gotten out to its worst start in recent memory, with the woeful performance from the starting rotation among the primary reasons driving their 11-20 record. The ’Stros got Justin Verlander back a couple weeks ago after he missed several weeks building up in the wake of some early-spring shoulder fatigue, but his return dovetailed with a neck injury for righty Cristian Javier. There’s optimism Javier will return soon and push the rotation group to six, as KPRC-2’s Ari Alexander tweets that the right-hander will embark on a minor league rehab assignment this weekend.

Even with an early no-hitter from breakout righty Ronel Blanco, Astros starters rank 27th in MLB with a 4.91 ERA. Houston’s rotation is tied for 22nd with a 21% strikeout rate and has the second-highest walk rate of any team in the game at 11.2%, trailing only the Mets. Those ugly K-BB numbers don’t lead fielding-independent numbers to be any more optimistic; the Astros’ rotation ranks 22nd in FIP (4.22) and 28th in SIERA (4.53).

Verlander’s return helped to shore things up, but the ’Stros have gotten dismal performances from right-handers J.P. France, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti and Blair Henley (the latter of whom made just one spot start early in the year).

France’s lack of strikeouts and pedestrian command always made some regression from last year’s 3.83 ERA in 23 starts seem likely, but he’s fallen off more than even skeptics could’ve reasonably expected. He’s been rocked for a 7.46 ERA in 25 1/3 innings thanks to a walk rate that’s spiked from 8.1% to 9.9% and a home-run rate that’s ballooned to 1.76 HR/9. He’s still doing a nice job avoiding hard contact, but when opponents have managed to barrel him up, the results have been disastrous — and the increased walk rate has meant there’s more runners on base for those worst-case outcomes.

Brown looked like a Rookie of the Year candidate for a portion of the 2023 season, but the former top prospect wilted as the year wore on. Like France, his walk and home-run rates have spiked in worrying fashion; he posted an 8.3% walk rate and 1.50 HR/9 last year but is now sitting at 12.2% and 1.96, respectively. He’s not inducing anywhere near as many chases off the plate as he did in ’23, and his swinging-strike rate has dropped from 10.6% to a well below-average 9%. He’s not doing himself many favors early in the count, either. The league-average pitcher has thrown a first-pitch strike at a 62.1% clip in 2024. Brown is at 52.2%.

The 24-year-old Arrighetti made his big league debut this season but hasn’t found much success through his first four starts. He did enjoy the best start of his young career last night, holding the Guardians to a pair of runs in 5 2/3 innings, but that only dropped his ERA to 8.27. Arrighetti has punched out a strong 25.9% of his opponents and has some rotten luck on balls in play (.438 BABIP), but his 12.3% walk rate (plus another plunked batter) has worked against him as well.

Each of Verlander, Blanco, Javier and Framber Valdez has pitched well when healthy this season, but Houston also has Lance McCullers Jr., Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy on the injured list alongside Javier at the moment. (Valdez also recently missed two weeks due to elbow inflammation.) The team knew McCullers and Garcia would open the season on the shelf after each underwent surgery last summer, but the Astros still didn’t take any real steps to deepen their rotation over the winter.

Assuming Javier is able to return in relatively short order, the presumptive six-man rotation would include Verlander, Valdez, Javier, Brown, Blanco and one of France or Arrighetti. Houston will need some combination of rebounds from Brown and/or France and a big step forward from Arrighetti (or another minor league starter) if they hope to turn their fortunes. If the Astros are indeed able to pull back into the race, they could get some needed reinforcements from Urquidy, McCullers and Garcia when they’re healthy.

That internal cavalry will be pivotal, as Houston’s $241MM payroll is already a franchise record. Owner Jim Crane had only crossed the luxury tax threshold once prior to this season, and the ’Stros now sit less than $2MM shy of the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. There’s no guarantee Crane will want to pour more money into the team by way of deadline acquisitions — particularly if the Astros are more of a fringe contender than a clear playoff favorite when late July rolls around.

MLBTR Podcast Mailbag: José Abreu Demoted, The Positional Surplus Myth, Erick Fedde’s Trade Value And More

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • José Abreu agreeing to be optioned by the Astros (2:50)
  • Upcoming knee surgery for Mike Trout of the Angels (5:05)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Given that a surplus can quickly disappear with injuries, will teams be more reluctant to trade from positions of relative strength? (6:50)
  • When will Jackson Jobe of the Tigers or Junior Caminero of the Rays be called up? (14:30)
  • Is it true that the White Sox can’t pick higher than tenth in next year’s draft? (18:20)
  • What is the current state of Tommy John surgery and longevity of pitchers after going under the knife? (22:00)
  • When can a team trade a recently-signed free agent? (28:50)
  • If Erick Fedde keeps pitching well, what kind of return could the White Sox get for him at the deadline? (30:50)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Astros Notes: McCormick, Javier, Urquidy, Hader

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The Astros placed Chas McCormick on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to April 28, before tonight’s matchup with the Guardians. The outfielder is dealing with right hamstring discomfort. Infielder Jacob Amaya was recalled in his place, while the Astros also brought up Trey Cabbage (a move first reported by Ari Alexander of KPRC 2) to take the spot vacated when they optioned José Abreu last night.

McCormick had a tough first month of the season. The typically steady left fielder is out to a .236/.325/.278 slash through 83 plate appearances. He still has yet to hit a home run after connecting on a career-high 22 longballs a season ago. McCormick had been an above-average hitter in each of his first three campaigns. Last year’s .273/.353/.489 line was the best work of his career.

His effort to get on track will be put on pause by the hamstring issue, although there’s nothing to suggest he’s facing a long-term absence. Joey Loperfido has gotten the nod in left field for the past two nights. The rookie could be in line for regular playing time on the grass after hitting 13 homers in 25 games for Triple-A Sugar Land. Loperfido could also pick up first base reps as the Astros rotate through options to replace Abreu. Jon Singleton has gotten the nod at that position in each of the last two games.

McCormick and utility infielder Grae Kessinger are Houston’s only position players on the IL. They haven’t been nearly as fortunate on the pitching side. Most of their rotation has spent time on the injured list at some point. Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. are still a ways away in their rehabs from arm surgeries, while José Urquidy and Cristian Javier are on the 15-day IL.

Houston released encouraging updates on the latter two right-handers this afternoon. Manager Joe Espada told reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) that the Astros might reinstate Javier to start Sunday’s matchup with the Mariners. Javier has been out since April 18 with neck discomfort, so he could make it back not long after the 15-day minimum if things go well in the next few days.

Urquidy has been battling a longer-term ailment. He reported elbow pain in Spring Training and was eventually diagnosed with a forearm strain. Urquidy has been on the IL for the entire season but could be nearing a rehab stint. Espada indicated that the 29-year-old threw 30 pitches in a live batting practice session today (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). If Urquidy gets through one more session without issue, he could report to a minor league affiliate to build into game shape.

In a rare Astros pitching development not related to injury, Espada tabbed star closer Josh Hader for a two-inning stint in yesterday’s extra-inning win over the Guards. The Astros called on Hader to keep the game tied in the top of the ninth. When both teams failed to score, they sent him back out for the tenth. He allowed the automatic runner to score but got credited for the win when Victor Caratini popped a two-out walk-off homer in the bottom half.

That was not just Hader’s first multi-inning appearance of the season. It was the first time he’d worked more than one inning in a regular season game since 2020; he hadn’t completed two full innings since 2019 when he was a member of the Brewers. As he became more established, Hader had been vocal about not wanting to work more than one inning.

The five-time All-Star indicated that’s no longer the case now that he has secured a five-year, $95MM free agent contract. Hader told the Houston beat that his expectation for 2024 is “to be available for multiple innings” (link via The Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara). The southpaw contrasted that to the past few seasons when he was going through the arbitration system and didn’t have long-term financial security. Those comments may not sit well with the Milwaukee or San Diego fanbases, but it’s a nice boost for the Astros.

Hader has had some uncharacteristic struggles in his first month in Houston. He has allowed 10 runs (nine earned) through his first 12 2/3 innings. Hader has recorded 21 strikeouts behind a huge 16% swinging strike rate, though, so he should find more consistency as the season goes along. The back of the bullpen has been a surprising disappointment thus far. Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly have also scuffled, contributing to Houston’s 10-19 start.

Astros To Option José Abreu

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First baseman José Abreu is not with the Astros right now and will be optioned tomorrow to West Palm Beach. As a veteran with over five years of major league service time, Abreu cannot be optioned without his consent but agreed to be sent down in an attempt to overcome his struggles. Chandler Rome of The Athletic was among those to relay the news on X.

Abreu, now 37, signed a three-year deal with a $58.5MM guarantee with the Astros going into 2023. Houston was undoubtedly hoping for Abreu to continue performing like he did with the White Sox. He hit 243 home runs for that club from 2014 to 2022, slashing .292/.354/.506 in the process.

But things have not been going well since he joined the Astros. He was hitting .211/.276/.260 through May last year, before bouncing back with a solid showing of .277/.322/.466 in June and July. He was brutal again in August, hitting .188/.278/.271, before mounting a solid finish by slashing .237/.299/.536 in September and October. That up-and-down season finished with a line of .237/.296/.383, which translated to a wRC+ of 86, but he provided a bit more optimism by slashing .295/.354/.591 in the postseason.

Unfortunately, things have gone from bad to worse here in 2024, something that MLBTR’s Anthony Franco looked at last week. Abreu has just seven hits so far this season, with his one double the only extra-base knock of the bunch. He currently has a line of .099/.156/.113 on the year. His -21 wRC+ is the worst in the majors among players with at least 70 plate appearances.

His .130 batting average on balls in play is surely due for some regression, but Abreu isn’t hitting the ball with much authority either. He has yet to barrel a ball this season, per Statcast’s definition, while his exit velocity and hard hit rate are way down relative to his previous work.

As mentioned, veteran players cannot be optioned without their consent but Abreu has agreed to go down to the minors. General manager Dana Brown told reporters that both sides decided Abreu should go down to the farm “to get some at-bats and his timing back right,” per Rome, linked up top. “He unselfishly was on board and agreement with going back to West Palm Beach,” Brown said.

Obviously, it would be great for everyone involved if this plan were successful in getting him back on track. The Astros are off to their worst start in years, currently 9-19 and in last place in the American League West. Abreu’s struggles have obviously been a part of that but he could also be part of the solution if he were able to turn things around.

For now, it’s not totally clear what the plan will be at first base. Joey Loperfido was just added to the roster today but he will be playing outfield for now, Brown said, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle. The Astros have Jon Singleton available to play first base but he’s not having a great year either, currently slashing .238/.319/.286.

Trey Cabbage could perhaps be an option, as he’s on the 40-man roster. He was just up with the club as their 27th man for the Mexico City Series but was sent back down after. Position players normally have to wait ten days after being optioned to be recalled again, but a “27th man” situation doesn’t count as being optioned.

Cabbage generally provides pop and can take a walk, but also racks up his share of strikeouts. He’s been hitting .271/.440/.486 in Triple-A this year, walking 23.1% of the time but striking out at a 31.9% clip. He also provides some wheels, having stolen seven bags on the year so far.

The Astros won’t officially option Abreu until tomorrow, so they will play a man short tonight and the corresponding move will be clear at that time.

Astros Designate Joel Kuhnel For Assignment

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The Astros announced to reporters, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that Joey Loperfido has been officially added to the roster. His imminent promotion was reported over the weekend. In corresponding moves, the club placed infielder Grae Kessinger on the 10-day injured list due to right shoulder discomfort and designated right-hander Joel Kuhnel for assignment.

Kuhnel, 29, was acquired from the Reds in a cash deal in June of last year. He was designated for assignment in the offseason and eventually elected free agency, but returned to the Astros on a minor league deal and was selected back to the roster a few weeks ago. He made just one appearance, allowing four earned runs in two innings, before being optioned to Triple-A Sugar Land.

He currently has a 6.30 earned run average in 85 2/3 innings at the major league level. His 19% strikeout rate is below average but his 6.3% walk rate and 52.2% ground ball rate are both quite strong. He’s been in decent form in Triple-A this year, with a 3.18 ERA in 11 1/3 innings, despite pitching in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

The Astros will now have a week to trade Kuhnel or try to pass him through waivers. He still has an option and could therefore be kept in the minors by any club willing to give him a 40-man roster spot. If he were to pass through waivers unclaimed, he would have the right to elect free agency as a player with a previous career outright.

Alex Bregman’s Slow Start Could Cost Him Millions

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Both the Astros and Alex Bregman are off to slow starts in 2024. There’s still lots of time left in the season for things to change, both for the club and for the player. But Bregman is set to be one of the top free agents available this winter and his slow start could have a significant impact on his earning power.

Bregman, 30, has appeared in 25 games this year and taken 108 trips to the plate. He remains tough to strike out, as his 12% clip is a match for last year’s rate and close to his career average. His 9.3% walk rate is a bit above this year’s 8.6% league average but well below Bregman’s previous form, as he drew free passes in 13.8% of his plate appearances from 2018 to 2023.

When he has put the bat on the ball, he hasn’t been able to do damage. Most notably, he has yet to hit a home run this season. He has just 21 hits, with his five doubles being the only knocks of the extra-base variety. His batting line for the year is .216/.287/.268, which translates to a wRC+ of 65, indicating he’s been 35% worse than league average. His .247 batting average on balls in play is below average and below his career rate, but his barrel rate, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are also down relative to his career marks.

As mentioned, there’s plenty of time for him to turn things around, since we’re not even in the month of May yet. Bregman has been here before. The slump is not without precedent. Using the Baseball Reference Span Finder shows that his .555 OPS this year is the seventh-worst of any 25-game stretch of his career. The six worse stretches all had a winter’s gap, as they each go from the end of 2022 to the start of 2023. That means Bregman is technically in the worst single-season slump of his career, but he also had a .558 OPS across May and June of 2022, not far off from his current woes.

Given that he’s had a tailspin like this before, it seems fair to expect him to pull out of it. However, that doesn’t mean teams won’t use it against him in free agency. As we just saw in the winter, clubs are quite willing to wave any red flags they can get their hands on if it helps their bargaining position.

Cody Bellinger hit .307/.356/.525 for the Cubs last year and seemed poised for a huge payday, especially when also factoring in his 20 stolen bases and center field defense. But his mega contract never arrived, perhaps due to health concerns or perhaps due to his Statcast data being on the weak side. He was notoriously poor over 2021 and 2022 in the aftermath of shoulder surgery, and his 2023 bounceback season still saw him go on the injured list. While the end-of-season results were strong, his average exit velocity was in the 22nd percentile of qualified league hitters while his hard hit rate was in the 10th.

On the other end of the spectrum was Matt Chapman, who had strong Statcast metrics but tepid results. Chapman’s exit velocity and hard hit rate were among the best in the league, finishing in the 98th and 100th percentile, respectively. But he hit .240/.330/.424 on the year overall, 110 wRC+, and in rather uneven fashion. As many pointed out, he hit .384/.465/.687 in April but then .205/.298/.361 the rest of the way. That framing ignores the fact that Chapman was still good in July and got hurt in August, which may have made his post-April stats look worse than they were, but it may not have mattered.

When MLBTR previewed the upcoming free agent class, which is linked above, it was mentioned that a seven- or eight-year deal north of $200MM was a possibility for Bregman. Flawed-but-talented players have certainly gone over that line before, with Xander Bogaerts and Anthony Rendon some of the recent examples. The expectation of the industry was that players like Bellinger and Chapman could get nine-figure deals despite their own issues, but that’s not how it played out. Each had to settle for a three-year deal with opt-outs, hoping that continued strong performance could lead to a better deal down the road.

Bregman has plenty of attributes that he and his reps can point to. Injuries have not been a major factor for him, as he has played at least 155 games in five of the past six full seasons. His strikeout and walk rates are both consistently better than average, while his third base defense is rated well. The elite offense he showed in 2018 and 2019 might be gone, but he hit .261/.364/.447 over 2022 and 2023 for a 131 wRC+.

But his struggles this year could be used against him, even if they don’t last all year, which could be tricky for Bregman. Back in March of 2019, he signed a $100MM extension with the club which locked in some big money for him but also gave the club two years of extra control. That means that despite debuting in the big leagues at the age of 22, he’ll be going into free agency ahead of his age-31 season.

It seems fair to assume that Bregman and his representatives at the Boras Corporation would prefer to lock in as much money as they can this winter. Boras clients have pivoted to short-term deals when necessary, but Bregman’s age make that undesirable, as it will be harder for him to increase his earning power as he moves deeper into his 30s. He and the Astros have had some on-and-off talks about another extension in recent years, but the fact that nothing has come together yet perhaps suggests that he has been holding out for something big this winter.

The Astros under owner Jim Crane have been averse to lengthy contracts, having never gone longer than six years. Even the six-year extensions they did agree to were for much younger players. Jose Altuve got a six-year deal which started with his age-29 season while Yordan Alvarez got one starting for his age-26 campaign. However, they did just sign another extension with Altuve, a five-year pact that covers his age-35 through age-39 seasons, so it’s not as though going deep into a player’s 30s is completely off the table.

Perhaps Bregman can finish the season strong and the market conditions will eventually work in his favor. This past offseason, it seems like factors such as dwindling TV revenue and the competitive balance tax had negative impacts on free agents. It’s possible to imagine a correction this winter. Perhaps the Mets will be looking to get more aggressive after being relatively quiet. Maybe the new owner of the Orioles looks to make a headline-grabbing deal. Maybe the Red Sox come out swinging after some positive player development in 2024.

But even if those stars do align, those clubs will have other options, such as 26-year-old hitting savant Juan Soto, bona fide ace Corbin Burnes, consistent power threat Pete Alonso or everyday shortstop Willy Adames.

Even the teams looking to make a big splash next winter might not have Bregman atop their list as a 31-year-old third baseman who has been quite good but not necessarily elite in recent years. The longer this slump continues, the more they can use it as a bargaining tactic. Bregman and Boras surely noticed what happened to Bellinger, Chapman, Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery, who all had to lower their demands as the recent offseason slouched along. Even Snell’s Cy Young season couldn’t wash away concerns about his previous low points.

One thing that could work in Bregman’s favor is if the Astros keep struggling and he winds up traded at the deadline, which would make him ineligible for a qualifying offer. But Montgomery didn’t have a QO attached to him this past winter and that didn’t seem to matter much. Bregman and the Boras team are undoubtedly aware that there’s a wide range of outcomes for his free agency, making the next few months all the more important.

Astros To Promote Joey Loperfido

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The Astros will call up Joey Loperfido prior to Tuesday’s game against the Guardians, KPRC 2’s Ari Alexander reports (via X).  Loperfido isn’t on Houston’s 40-man roster, so the Astros will have to make at least one roster move to find room for the first baseman/outfielder.

Rumors about Loperfido’s promotion have swirled ever since Spring Training, when the young slugger drew attention with an 1.076 OPS over 41 Grapefruit League plate appearances.  He kept swinging a hot bat through the start of the Triple-A season, taking a .276/.376/.684 slash line through his first 117 PA of the minor league season.  Loperfido has also gone yard 13 times, as he launched his 13th home run of the young season in Triple-A Sugar Land’s 10-5 win today over the Reno Aces.

While such absurd numbers would make any prospect seem like a candidate for their MLB debut, Loperfido’s production has particularly stood out given how little the Astros have received from the first base position.  Jose Abreu is hitting .099/.156/.113 over 77 PA this season, translating to an astonishing -21 wRC+.  Though Abreu also struggled for much of the 2023 season, his rebound near the end of the year and his good showing in the playoffs led to some hope that the veteran had gotten on track, yet Abreu has limped out of the gates with the worst stretch of his career.

MLBTR’s Anthony Franco recently explored Abreu’s situation, noting that Abreu’s contract (roughly $16.25MM remaining this season and $19.5MM in 2025) has certainly made the Astros wary about sitting him down, or even releasing Abreu entirely.  If Loperfido isn’t going to entirely supplant Abreu, however, Jon Singleton certainly seems like a potential cut given how Singleton is batting only .238/.319/.286 over 47 PA.  Since Singleton and Loperfido are both left-handed hitters, having Loperfido take over as the complementary first option alongside the right-handed hitting Abreu seems like a logical move for Houston.  Trey Cabbage was also on the roster as the 27th man for this weekend’s series with the Rockies in Mexico City, but Cabbage is probably more likely to head back to Triple-A.

A seventh-round pick for the Astros in the 2021 draft, Loperfido (who turns 25 in two weeks) didn’t exactly come out of nowhere, as he posted strong numbers in each of his first two minor league seasons.  He moved up the ladder quickly enough to make his Triple-A debut in 2023, though his .235/.333/.403 slash line in 138 PA with Sugar Land last year didn’t hint at his eye-popping breakout in store for 2024.

Both MLB Pipeline and Baseball America ranked Loperfido sixth on their preseason lists of Houston’s best prospects, noting his raw power potential but also highlighting his possible contributions as more than just a slugging first baseman.  Indeed, Loperfido has spent more time as an outfielder than as a first baseman, with the bulk of his minor league innings coming in center field.  Loperfido could therefore find himself getting some at-bats as a left fielder or center fielder in place of Chas McCormick or Jake Meyers — both are right-handed hitters, and McCormick isn’t producing much at the plate.  Loperfido also brings some good speed to the table, with 64 steals in 79 attempts during his minor league career.

Loperfido’s 30.8% strikeout rate at Triple-A is certainly cause for concern, plus some grain of salt must always be applied to numbers posted in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.  It should also be noted that while Abreu has been a glaring weak spot in the lineup, the Astros are hitting quite well on the whole, as pitching (and injuries within the rotation) has been the much bigger reason behind the team’s unexpectedly slow start.  Houston therefore doesn’t need Loperfido to be an immediate star right away, and frankly, the bar has been set so low by Abreu and Singleton that even average production from Loperfido would represent a nice upgrade.

Astros To Activate Framber Valdez On Sunday, Option J.P. France

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Astros manager Joe Espada informed members of the club’s beat, including Chandler Rome of The Athletic, that left-hander Framber Valdez will be activated off the injured list to start Sunday’s game against the Rockies in Mexico City. Rome also reports (X link) that right-hander J.P. France will be optioned in a corresponding move.

The news is obviously great for Valdez personally. He and the club got a scare when he landed on the injured list earlier this month due to soreness in his throwing elbow. It’s always a concerning element when a pitcher’s throwing elbow is injured but a number of high-profile pitchers requiring season-ending surgery this year only heightened the worry.

Thankfully, it seems Valdez avoided a really serious injury. He started throwing again shortly after being placed on the IL and will now be quickly activated, just barely over the 15-day minimum and without requiring a rehab assignment.

The news is also great for the team, as the Astros have been scrambling to fill their rotation all season along. They came into they year knowing they would be without Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia, since they each underwent significant elbow surgeries last year and won’t be available until midseason at the earliest. But the rotation was further thinned out during Spring Training when Justin Verlander and José Urquidy each landed on the injured list.

Valdez then landed on the injured list a few weeks ago, further depleting the rotation mix. Verlander returned to health and rejoined the club about a week ago, but then Cristian Javier swapped places with him, landing on the IL due to neck discomfort. Now that Valdez is back, he’ll slot into the rotation next to Verlander, Ronel Blanco, Hunter Brown and Spencer Arrighetti.

France being sent down registers as a surprise. He’s certainly not out to an amazing start to the season, with a 7.46 earned run average through five starts. But he did quite well last year, with a 3.83 ERA in 136 1/3 innings. He may have been challenged to maintain those kinds of results going forward, as his 17.4% strikeout rate was a bit below average last year, but he’s actually increased his strikeout rate to 18.2% this year.

His struggles in the early going could perhaps be a bit based on luck. His .289 batting average on balls in play last year has ticked up to .321 this season, while his strand rate has gone from 76.7% to 62.2%. His 5.52 FIP and 4.95 SIERA both suggest he deserved to have slightly better results than what he actually got.

Beyond looking at France in a vacuum, it’s also surprising to see him as the corresponding move when considering the other options. Both Brown and Arrighetti still have options and each has allowed more earned runs than innings pitched this year. Brown had a 9.68 ERA through five outings while Arrighetti has a 10.97 ERA through three.

A deeper look perhaps sheds some light on the decision, however. Arrighetti has struck out 25.9% of batters faced, far more than France. His 12.1% walk rate is certainly on the high side but he’s also been victimized by a .500 BABIP and 52.8% strand rate. His 3.81 FIP and 4.04 SIERA are actually quite serviceable.

Brown’s rate stats for the year aren’t amazing but his numbers are also heavily skewed by one nightmare outing in which he allowed nine runs on 11 hits against the Royals while only recording two outs. Perhaps the Astros are giving him the benefit of the doubt since he had a 26.8% strikeout rate, 8.3% walk rate and 52.4% ground ball rate last year. Perhaps the club will speak on their reasoning in the coming days.

The diminished rotation is a huge reason why the Astros are out to its worst start in years. They are currently 7-19, the worst club in the American League apart from the White Sox. Their starters have a collective 5.21 ERA, which is better than just the White Sox and Rockies out of the 30 MLB clubs. Valdez has a 3.38 ERA in his career and should help stabilize the group as long as he’s pitching like his usual self. If Javier and Urquidy are able to come back soon, that could further strengthen things.

Elsewhere on the roster, the team is allowed a 27th man for the Mexico City Series, though it has to be a position player. Per Brian McTaggart of MLB.com, the Astros will have first baseman/outfielder Trey Cabbage as their extra body.

It’s unclear if the Astros intend to have Cabbage around for just the games in Mexico or a longer stay, but it will perhaps be a situation worth monitoring since the club has been getting atrocious production from the first base spot this year. Earlier this week, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco took a look at the struggles of José Abreu, who is now hitting .065/.132/.081 on the year. Jon Singleton has started in Abreu’s place a few times lately. His line of .244/.326/.293 is far better than Abreu’s but is still below average, translating to a 88 wRC+.

Cabbage has generally hit a ton in the minors but also had his share of strikeout problems, a trend that has continued this year. Acquired from the Angels in the offseason, Cabbage has struck out in 31.9% of his Triple-A plate appearances this year and also walked in 23.1% of them. He has three home runs and is hitting .271/.440/.486 for a 137 wRC+ while also stealing seven bases. That’s pretty similar production to his time in Triple-A last year, when he hit 30 home runs, stole 32 bases and struck out 30% of the time.

Jose Abreu’s Continued Struggles

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No hitter has had a worse start to the season than José Abreu. The veteran first baseman has only picked up four hits in 65 plate appearances. He’s hitting .068/.138/.085 with one extra-base knock, a double. Among hitters with 50+ trips to the dish, none has made less of an impact from a power perspective. Only Victor Scott II — a glove-first rookie whom the Cardinals optioned over the weekend — has as poor an on-base mark.

While St. Louis had the luxury of sending Scott to Triple-A, the Astros can’t do the same with Abreu. He’d need to agree to any kind of minor league assignment. They’re not going to find a trade partner. In all likelihood, the only way for Houston to take him off the MLB roster is to release him and eat the remaining money on his $58.5MM free agent deal. Considering Abreu is making $19.5MM both this season and next, it’s not especially surprising that Houston isn’t ready to move on entirely.

At the same time, they have to at least consider the possibility of making a change at first base. The Astros have already kicked Abreu to the bottom third of the batting order after he started the year in the #5 hole. He has gotten the start in 16 of Houston’s 23 games, with Jon Singleton getting the nod at first base for the other seven appearances.

If Singleton were hitting well, perhaps Abreu would be in danger of losing his starting job. Yet the lefty-hitting Singleton is off to a lackluster .229/.308/.286 line in his own right. It comes as no surprise that Houston’s first basemen have been the sport’s least productive through three weeks. No team has gotten less than their .110/.187/.146 showing over 91 plate appearances.

While Singleton isn’t exactly forcing his way into the lineup, the Astros could consider alternatives in the minors. Offseason trade acquisition Trey Cabbage is on the 40-man roster but has been on optional assignment to Triple-A Sugar Land all season. He’s hitting .262/.407/.492 over his first 18 games. Former seventh-round pick Joey Loperfido has raked at a .260/.359/.688 clip over 19 contests for the Space Cowboys. The Duke product is tied with Heston Kjerstad for the Triple-A lead with 10 home runs. Loperfido is not on the 40-man but will need to be added at some point this year if Houston wants to keep him out of next offseason’s Rule 5 draft.

Neither Cabbage nor Loperfido is certain or even necessarily likely to produce against big league pitching. Cabbage appeared in 22 games for the Angels last season and struck out in nearly half his plate appearances. He’s going down on strikes a third of the time this year in Triple-A. Loperfido has had a similarly high swing-and-miss rate, fanning at a 33.7% clip this year after running a 32.6% strikeout percentage in his first look at Triple-A pitching last summer. He’s soon to turn 25 and has yet to make his major league debut.

Even if the Astros aren’t sold on Loperfido or Cabbage making enough contact to produce at the MLB level, they’ll obviously need to see more from Abreu to continue running him out there. General manager Dana Brown acknowledged as much last week. The GM told Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle on Friday that while the Astros would continue to give Abreu playing time in hopes that he finds his stride, they’d “have to circle back and make some decisions” if the former MVP doesn’t start hitting. That preceded an 0-8 showing from Abreu in the first two games of their weekend series against the Nationals. Singleton got the nod in yesterday’s series finale and went 0-3.

A player starting the year slowly can easily be overemphasized. A terrible three-week stretch to begin the season is more visible than a similar run in the middle of the summer might be. Teams are understandably wary about overreacting to a small sample in April, as Brown noted. Abreu’s struggles are magnified, though, because he’s already coming off a disappointing first year.

In 594 plate appearances a year ago, he hit .237/.296/.383 with 18 home runs. Of the 25 first basemen who took at least 500 plate appearances, Abreu was last in OBP and 22nd in slugging. Including this year’s start brings his overall line as an Astro to .220/.281/.354. That’d be subpar production for virtually any regular on a team with postseason aspirations. It’s particularly poor for a 37-year-old first baseman whose main source of value is supposed to be his bat.

To his credit, Abreu found his form to some extent late last season. He carried a .237/.296/.350 mark into September before connecting on seven homers with a .237/.299/.536 line in the regular season’s final month. He built off that in October, mashing at a .295/.354/.591 clip with another four longballs in 11 playoff contests. Abreu has also traditionally been a slow starter, even if this month’s struggles are at another level. For his career, he owns a roughly league average .241/.309/.421 line in March and April; he has posted well above-average offensive numbers in every other month.

That perhaps offers some level of optimism that Abreu will be able to turn things around. Still, despite a strong Spring Training performance, he hasn’t smoothly carried his late-2023 rebound into this season. How much more leeway the front office and manager Joe Espada can afford to give him remains to be seen.

Houston’s offense has been solid overall despite the complete lack of production at first base, yet they’re operating with far less margin for error than they have in past seasons. Poor performances from the starting rotation and the back of the bullpen, combined with a lack of timely hits, have led to a dismal 7-16 start. Only the White Sox have been worse in the American League. Urgency is soon going to mount. If the Astros get to a point where they feel a change in playing time is necessary, first base might be the likeliest position to do so.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Astros Place Cristian Javier On 15-Day Injured List

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Right-hander Cristian Javier has been scratched from his scheduled start against the Nationals this afternoon and will be placed on the injured list, Astros manager Joe Espada told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). Right-hander Hunter Brown will take the ball against the Nationals today in Javier’s stead, while righty Spencer Arrighetti is being recalled to replace Javier on the club’s active roster.

Javier has been a rare bright spot in what has been a brutal start to the 2024 campaign for the 7-15 Astros. None of that can be pinned on the 27-year-old righty, however, as Javier has dominated to the tune of a 1.54 ERA and a 3.66 FIP in 23 1/3 innings of work across four starts so far this season. Unfortunately, he’ll now take a seat for at least 15 days, though Espada indicated (as relayed by Kawahara) that the goal of Javier’s placement on the injured list was simply to “give him time” to recover, suggesting a fairly short absence could be on the table.

Even if Javier’s trip to the injured list is a fairly short one, it’s still tough news for the Astros. The club just returned veteran ace Justin Verlander from the injured list last week, and now Javier will join Framber Valdez, Jose Urquidy, Luis Garcia, and Lance McCullers Jr. on the shelf for the time being. Of that group, only Valdez appears to be nearing a return. The lefty was placed on the injured list earlier this month due to elbow soreness but avoided a more serious injury, with Kawahara relaying that Espada even left the door open to Valdez returning to the club’s rotation sometime this week to pitch alongside Verlander and J.P. France against the Cubs at Wrigley Field.

If Valdez can return in the coming days, it should be a fairly seamless transition into the rotation with off-days on Monday and Friday allowing the club additional flexibility if necessary. The southpaw made just two starts prior to going on the injured list at the beginning of the month but looked good in both of them, pitching to a 2.19 ERA with a 3.55 FIP and 10 strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings of work.

Should Valdez need a bit longer before he’s ready to be activated, the Astros figure to turn to Arrighetti to make a start at some point. The 24-year-old rookie made his MLB debut earlier this season and struggled badly in two starts, allowing nine runs on 11 hits and five walks in just seven innings of work, though he did manage to notch eight strikeouts. If Arrighetti doesn’t end up being needed to make a start in the coming days, the Astros could instead look to use him to bolster a bullpen that has posted a worrisome 5.29 ERA to this point in the 2024 season, better than only the Rays among AL clubs.

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