The Implications Of Jordan Lyles’ Debut
In less than an hour, Jordan Lyles will make his much-anticipated MLB debut. Ten starts into the Triple-A season, the right-hander has a 3.20 ERA with 6.3 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9, impressive stats, especially for a 20-year-old.
Those aren't the only relevant numbers for Lyles and his team. The Astros appear to have significantly reduced the chances that Lyles will become a super two after 2013 and go through the potentially lucrative salary arbitration process an extra time.
Even if Lyles never sees the minor leagues again, he’ll have two years and 121 days of service time after 2013. That doesn’t figure to be enough for super two status – last year’s cutoff was unusually low at two years and 122 days – so Lyles is only on track for three arbitration years.
But it’s too early to know how much service time will be required for super two status three offseasons for now, because the cutoff date changes most years. And since baseball’s collective bargaining agreement expires after 2011, there’s no guarantee that the super two will exist a few years from now (though coming up with alternative that satisfies baseball’s owners and the players’ association will not be easy).
There’s a good chance that the Astros will have to option Lyles to the minors at some point – few 20-year-olds make the big leagues and even fewer thrive instantly at the highest level. If Lyles does return to the minors, the projections could change dramatically, as they did for Brett Cecil, Jenrry Mejia and legions of other pitching prospects who were demoted after debuting in the big leagues.
Everything from the super two cutoff to the CBA to Lyles’ development is subject to change, but here’s what we know: if the rules stay the same, the cutoff falls where we expect it to and Lyles stays in the big leagues from here on, the Astros will have avoided super two status for the young righty and saved themselves millions in the process. That may not be Houston's intention – there's much more to player development than waiting until Memorial Day then calling up your top players – but at the very least it's a pleasant coincidence.
Nats Looking For Center Fielder; Asked About Bourn
The Nationals are looking to acquire a center fielder and a leadoff hitter, according to MLB.com's Bill Ladson. The club is willing to overpay in a trade, according to Ladson, who suggests they could look for a center fielder or leadoff hitter if they trade Ivan Rodriguez or Todd Coffey. Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post hears that the Nats inquired about Michael Bourn, though talks didn't develop (Twitter link).
Roger Bernadina has been playing center field regularly for Washington, but some members of the Nationals' organization believe he belongs in a corner outfield spot. The 26-year-old has played all three outfield positions this year and has a .247/.307/.333 line with one home run.
Nationals leadoff hitters have combined for a .195/.250/.296 line. They're 13 of 13 in stolen base attempts, but have just 13 walks against 51 stirkeouts and rank last among MLB leadoff hitters in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS.
Yankees Notes: Trade Calls, Myers, Scouts
The Yankees cut ties with Randy Winn on this date last year. The outfielder hit just .213/.300/.295 in 71 plate appearances, seemingly getting exposed when an injury to Curtis Granderson forced him into regular duty. Here are some notes from the Big Apple…
- GM Brian Cashman told George A. King III of The New York Post that he isn't getting any calls about trades just yet. "I am not getting calls," said Cashman. "We have the farm system and money, but no calls … The headache stuff is available. The quality stuff is not available."
- Within the article, King notes that the team could look for upgrades at DH, in right field, and for the pitching staff. He says the Astros "will listen" to offers for Brett Myers, but the Yankees "don't have a match." King speculates that Carlos Beltran, Michael Cuddyer, and Vladimir Guerrero could be potential trade targets.
- Dan Barbarisi of The Wall Street Journal wrote about the club's pro scouting department, which helped unearth Bartolo Colon and others this offseason. "It's easy to recommend a guy when the numbers are there," said scout Tim Naehring. "The most difficult thing is feeling confident and putting in a report when the production isn't there. The biggest challenge is sticking your neck out and saying,'I know there's more in there. I know there's better performance coming.'"
Quick Hits: McCourt, Abreu, Sizemore, Purcey
A night after striking out four times in four plate appearances, Adam Dunn walked in all four of his plate appearances in Friday's 4-2 loss to Toronto. If we're sticking to a pattern of Dunn's "three true outcomes," then theoretically, Dunn should hit four home runs against the Blue Jays tomorrow. Set your fantasy lineups accordingly!
Some news from around the majors as we go into the weekend…
- Frank McCourt will be able to meet the Dodgers' May 31 payroll, reports Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. One of Shaikin's sources says McCourt is still looking to secure the funds to meet the next payroll deadline on June 15. If McCourt fails to meet payroll, Major League Baseball will seize control of the team from the embattled owner and cover the payroll itself.
- With Bobby Abreu on pace to easily reach 433 plate appearances and cause his $9MM option for 2012 to vest, the Angels will owe $48MM in 2012 to Abreu, Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter. Mark Saxon of ESPNLosAngeles.com thinks allowing Abreu's option to vest "would be just another poor long-term decision for a GM [Tony Reagins] that seems to be specializing in them," and wonders why the Halos would tie so much money up in the outfield when their top prospect (Mike Trout) is an outfielder and Peter Bourjos is in the picture.
- In his analysis of today's Scott Sizemore-for-David Purcey trade, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes that the Tigers first contacted the Athletics about Purcey on the very day that Oakland acquired the left-hander from the Blue Jays. The deal was a natural match since "the A’s long have had interest in Sizemore," and plan to convert him to a third baseman.
- Matthew Eddy of Baseball America wraps up the week's minor league transactions.
- Joe Girardi said he could move Nick Swisher into a platoon with Chris Dickerson if Swisher doesn't pick up his hitting from the left side of the plate, reports Wallace Matthews of ESPNNewYork.com. Swisher still has four months to get on track, but right now it looks like there's no chance the Yankees will pick up his $10.25MM option for 2012.
- Ryan Drese was granted his release by the Orioles earlier today, and Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun reports the veteran righty is expected to sign a minor league deal with the Astros.
Astros Release Joe Inglett
The Astros have released utility infielder Joe Inglett, reports MLB.com's Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Houston acquired Inglett from Tampa Bay in March, and designated him for assignment at the end of April. Inglett hit .222/.222/.259 in 27 plate appearances for the Astros this year and had just two hits in 37 plate appearances at Triple-A Oklahoma City.
Inglett, who turns 33 next month, has a career .734 OPS in six Major League seasons with the Indians, Blue Jays, Brewers and Astros. He has played everywhere but catcher and first base during his career, even pitching a perfect inning of relief for Milwaukee last year. All but 92 of Inglett's 898 career plate appearances have been against right-handed pitching, so between Inglett's decent left-handed bat and his versatility, he's a good bet to be signed by a club in need of bench depth.
Astros Claim Blake King Off Of Waivers
The Astros have claimed right-handed pitcher Blake King off waivers from the Cardinals, according to a team press release. The 24-year-old was placed on the Astros 40-man roster and optioned to Double-A Corpus Christi.
King failed to impress in 2011 at the Triple-A level after spending the bulk of his time in Double-A Springfield. In 58 career Double-A appearances, the 6-foot-1 hurler has a 3.47 ERA with 11.1 K/9 and 7.1 BB/9.
Stark On Pence, Phillies, Braves
Of all the teams in baseball, the 18-30 Astros are likeliest to become sellers this summer, in the eyes of ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. Yet Stark suggests there may be a shortage of sellers, since so many teams are within striking distance of a playoff berth. Here are the details, as the summer trade market starts to take shape:
- Houston GM Ed Wade says it makes sense to explore “anything that builds the type of depth that will get us where we need to be."
- Rival teams believe Wade would listen to offers for players like Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, Clint Barmes and Bill Hall, but the GM says he’s “going to be very protective of [Houston’s] younger players."
- Stark hears that the Braves, Orioles and Phillies have some interest in Hunter Pence. A rival executive says Wade would need an immense haul to justify trading Pence, who is under team control through 2013.
- The Phillies’ interest in Pence may be overstated. Pence’s $6.9MM salary appears to be about double what Philadelphia can add and at this point, the Phils are just creating a shopping list of possible targets.
- The Braves are “actively stepping up” their search for hitting. They’ve been looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder and would also like a utility infielder who can handle shortstop. They signed longtime shortstop Julio Lugo yesterday.
Quick Hits: Holliday, Twins, Astros, Nats, Red Sox
Some links to browse through on your Sunday afternoon…
- The Matt Holliday contract is looking better every day, writes Bernie Miklasz of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Miklasz compares Holliday's deal to several other outfielders, including Alfonso Soriano and Jason Bay, in pointing out the early returns on the Cardinals' investment in Holliday.
- Tom Powers of the St. Paul Pioneer Press looks at some of the biggest trades to date from Twins GM Bill Smith as the trade deadline approaches. The Twins figure to be full-fledged sellers for the first time under Smith's watch.
- Neither the Astros nor the Rockies are looking like winners of the Clint Barmes–for-Felipe Paulino swap this past offseason, writes the Houston Chronicle's Zachary Levine. The Rox just DFA'ed Paulino while Barmes is hitting .191 in Houston. As Levine points out, the Astros' bigger loss to the Rockies was former closer Matt Lindstrom.
- Zach Berman of the New Jersey Star Ledger takes a look at Nationals third base coach Bo Porter and his quest to become a Major League manager.
- Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports opines that the Red Sox are a great team, but not yet complete as their bullpen has been overworked and exposed by a struggling rotation. He wonders if Boston will be in the hunt for an elite upgrade to its rotation prior to July 31 to take some of the pressure off the bullpen.
Cafardo On Reyes, Soriano, Braves, Myers
In his Baseball Notes column for the Boston Globe, Nick Cafardo says baseball stadiums should dial back the between-innings entertainment, arguing that the on-field action is engaging enough. He also has a few hot stove notes to share:
- An American League scout says if the Mets hear an offer they like for Jose Reyes, they'll take it: "They can’t afford not to and let him leave as a free agent and not get value for him."
- Cafardo points out that Rafael Soriano seems unhappy in a setup role and does have an opt-out clause at season's end. However, as Cafardo suggests, it seems extremely unlikely the right-hander would leave $25MM on the table when no other team would match that.
- The Braves would like to add some offensive insurance in case Chipper Jones' knee doesn't hold up all season.
- Brett Myers "seems to have Yankees written all over him," Cafardo says. Once Jim Crane's ownership group officially takes over, the Astros' trade deadline intentions will become clearer. At this point though, it's hard to imagine the team, whose 16-30 record is the National League's worst, not being sellers.
Rosenthal’s Full Count Video: Pence, Phillies, Sabathia
Here's the weekly 'Full Count' video from Ken Rosenthal of FOXSports.com…
- Three different scouts have told Rosenthal that the Phillies have asked the Astros about Hunter Pence. A deal seems unlikely for a number of reasons — Pence's salary (he's owed roughly $5MM more this season), the Phillies' reluctance to move top prospects in a deal, and the fact that Jim Crane wouldn't want to begin his ownership of the Astros by dealing their best player.
- Ruben Amaro tells Rosenthal that Phillies ownership hasn't yet given him direction about what the GM can or can't do at the deadline. Amaro says the Phillies could find some payroll space without having to deal Joe Blanton, which might be impossible anyway given Blanton's struggles, high salary and the fact that Blanton is currently on the DL.
- The Angels are looking to acquire a corner infielder with some pop. Rosenthal suggests Russell Branyan, just released by Arizona, could be signed to share time at first base with Mark Trumbo. Wilson Betemit could be acquired to play third, since the Royals will shop Betemit to clear space for Mike Moustakas.
- Ian Stewart is another possible target for the Halos, but the Rockies aren't likely to deal him since they don't have any other answers at third base. The Rockies are also "relucant to sell low" on the struggling Stewart; Rosenthal says the Pirates recently asked about Stewart but were "simply bottom-feeding" rather than making a serious offer.
- The Dodgers were one of C.C. Sabathia's "top choices" when he was a free agent after the 2008 season, and he would "love to have the Dodgers as leverage" when he (as expected) opts out of his contract with the Yankees this winter. As Rosenthal says, impending free agents hope the Dodgers solve their ownership problems quickly so the team can resume its status as a big-market destination.
- Jose Reyes "is going to make a killing" in free agency this winter and Jimmy Rollins should also do well given the lack of quality shortstops around the league, Rosenthal predicts. The Brewers, Mets, Dodgers, Giants and Athletics are just a few of the teams that could be in the market for a shortstop in the offseason. The Giants and A's may be a particular fit for Rollins, an Oakland native.
- The Phillies, of course, could re-sign Rollins themselves. Rosenthal notes it would be difficult for the Phils to part with their long-time shortstop, particularly if the club makes another deep postseason run.