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Nationals Close To Acquiring Alcides Escobar From Royals

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7:26PM: The Royals will receive cash considerations from the Nats in the trade, as per The Athletic’s Maria Torres (via Twitter).

6:41PM: The Nationals are in the process of completing a deal to land minor league shortstop Alcides Escobar from the Royals, reports Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (Twitter link). The 34-year-old Escobar has been with Kansas City’s Triple-A affiliate and is not on the 40-man roster.

Escobar is most famous for his first run with the Royals. The slick-fielding shortstop was an everyday player and frequent leadoff hitter for Kansas City’s contending clubs of the last decade. His high batting averages were sometimes enough to offset his lack of power and perennially low walk rates, but the speedster’s production tailed off as he entered his 30’s. Escobar struggled offensively each season from 2015-18 and hasn’t appeared in the majors since.

He spent the entire 2019 season with the White Sox’s Triple-A affiliate, then signed with the Yakult Swallows of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball last year. Escobar returned to the United States in 2021, signing a minors deal with his old club in May. Through 133 plate appearances with Omaha, he’s hit at a passable .274/.311/.452 clip.

That was enough to catch the attention of the Nationals, who have been shorthanded in the infield in recent days. Star shortstop Trea Turner has been dealing with a finger issue. He remains day-to-day, although it’s not clear if the Escobar acquisition suggests he could be facing a stint on the injured list. Expected backup infielder Jordy Mercer just landed on the IL himself, leading the Nats to bring up another former Royal, Humberto Arteaga, from Triple-A this afternoon.

Royals Place Wade Davis On 10-Day Injured List, Recall Richard Lovelady

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The Royals placed Wade Davis on the 10-day injured list yesterday with a right forearm strain. Southpaw Richard Lovelady was recalled from Triple-A Omaha to take his spot in the Royals’ bullpen, per the team transactions log on MLB.com.

The Royals are scuffling. They earned pats on the back from many around the game for their aggressive offseason, and when they jumped out to a 15-9 start in April, the idea of Mike Matheny’s club making a run seemed like it might have legs. But they tumbled to an 11-17 record in May, and fell even further in June, entering play on Wednesday with a 7-19 record for the month. Now losers of seven straight, the Royals have fallen behind the Twins for last place in the AL Central.

Pitching has been a particular challenge for the Royals this month. With a team ERA of 5.97, they have produced -0.7 fWAR this month, tied with the Diamondbacks for the worst mark in the Majors. Davis has, unfortunately, been no small part of their struggles, as the Royals’ legend has given up 11 earned runs on 14 hits and and five walks while serving up five home runs in 9 1/3 innings this month. For the year now, Davis has a 8.06 ERA/6.50 FIP.

His control issues of the past couple seasons have settled down to a not-horrible 9.2 percent walk rate, but the trouble stems largely from the fact that, at 35 years old, Davis simply isn’t missing bats anymore. His four-seamer velocity is down to an average of 92.6 mph, which lands in just the 16th percentile league-wide. His O-Swing%, the percent of pitches batters swing at outside the zone, is down to 23.9 percent, quite a bit below the 30.6 percent average for relievers. Overall, his 18.5 percent strikeout rate is a good tick below average as well.

Lovelady, 25, will make his first appearance of the season and try to provide some support to the Royals’ pen. Lovelady relies mostly on a fastball/slider combo, though he’s worked to add a change-up to his arsenal as well. He has 26 career appearances, all but one coming back in 2019 when he logged 20 innings with a 7.65 ERA/4.16 FIP while posting walk and strikeout rates of 8.3 percent and 17.7 percent, respectively.

Royals Designate Kelvin Gutierrez For Assignment, Select Emmanuel Rivera

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The Royals announced Monday that they’ve designated infielder Kelvin Gutierrez for assignment and selected the contract of fellow infielder Emmanuel Rivera from Triple-A Omaha. Rivera, who’ll be making his MLB debut, is batting sixth in tonight’s lineup and manning the hot corner.

Gutierrez, 26, was acquired from the Nationals back in the 2018 trade that sent righty Kelvin Herrera from K.C. to D.C. At the time of the swap, Gutierrez was arguably the top prospect headed back to Kansas City — a potentially plus defender at third base with above-average power but questions about his hit tool. His development, unfortunately, hasn’t rounded out as hoped.

The Royals gave Gutierrez a look in each of the past three seasons, but he’s mustered only a .226/.275/.309 slash through 223 Major League plate appearances. He’s posted a .289/.364/.429 slash in 84 Triple-A games as well, although given the hitter-friendly nature of that setting, that output checks in at roughly league average, per wRC+. Gutierrez hasn’t been as strong defensively as expected at third base, either;  he’s committed a dozen errors in 490 innings at third base while logging below-average marks in Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average.

That said, Gutierrez can be optioned for the remainder of the 2021 season and has been an average or better hitter at nearly every minor league stop. He’ll turn 27 two months from now, but another club in need of some depth at third base could take a mostly free look at this point. The Royals have a week to trade Gutierrez or attempt to pass him through outright waivers.

Rivera’s call to the big leagues serves as an early birthday present, as he’ll turn 25 tomorrow. He’s spent the season with Triple-A Omaha and posted a .282/.337/.593 batting line with 14 home runs, 11 doubles and a triple so far in 193 plate appearances. He doesn’t walk much (6.2 percent in 2021) but also has a seemingly manageable strikeout rate (22.3 percent).

Rivera as a mid-range prospect for the Royals heading into the 2019 season, but a forgettable .258/.297/.345 (79 wRC+) performance in Double-A caused him to fall off most organizational rankings. This is the most productive season of his career so far, however, and he’ll now get a chance to carry it over to the big league level for a Royals club that can afford him ample playing time.

2021 Amateur Draft Rumors: Pirates, Mayer, Orioles, Mock Drafts

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The 2021 amateur draft begins on July 11, and with the later date comes more time for analysis, predictions, smokescreens, rumors, and possible major changes up and down teams’ draft boards.  With this in mind, there is naturally quite a bit of uncertainty over which prospects will land with which teams, as a real consensus has yet to develop in almost every single spot in the first round.

Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, The Athletic’s Keith Law, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel have all published new mock drafts within the last week, and one constant emerged between the four pundits — the Pirates taking California high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer with the first overall (1-1) pick.  It isn’t a sure thing by any means, however, as the Pirates are said to be focused “only on position players at this point,” according to Law, so such candidates as Louisville catcher Henry Davis (Callis cites Davis as Pittsburgh’s apparent “Plan B”) or high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Khalil Watson could still be in the mix.  Collazo also believes the Pirates are considering Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter.

The Pirates’ $14,394,000 draft bonus pool is the highest of any team, and they plan to maximize value by drafting a player at 1-1 who is thought to be less willing to insist on the full slot price $8,415,300 slot price for the first overall pick.  “I think that’s what Pittsburgh’s pick will come down to: taking the one that is clearly cheaper to sign,” McDaniel writes, which certainly isn’t welcome news to Pirates fans long frustrated by the team’s unwillingness to spend.

That being said, many teams have deployed the strategy of spreading around their draft bonus money in the past.  The most famous example was the Astros’ pick of Carlos Correa (seen as a slight reach at the time) first overall in 2012, and Houston signed Correa to a below-slot bonus and then using that saved money to sign 41st-overall pick Lance McCullers Jr. to an above-slot deal.  It also isn’t like Mayer would be a controversial choice at 1-1, considering that MLB Pipeline ranks him first on their top 250 draft prospects list, and McDaniel’s most recent prospect ranking has Mayer second overall.

While Mayer looks like the favorite at the moment, it is quite possible the perceived price tags could still fluctuate in the next three weeks.  For instance, the three pundits all note that the Tigers love Mayer, so he isn’t likely to fall beyond Detroit at the third overall pick if the Pirates and Rangers (who pick second) both pass.  As McDaniel observes, this impacts Mayer’s leverage in potential negotiations with the Pirates, since the young shortstop can be reasonably certain of at least landing a bonus in range of the $7,221,200 slot price attached to the third overall pick.

There is no consensus whatsoever in the mock drafts after a hypothetical Pirates/Mayer 1-1 pick, so if Pittsburgh went in another direction, the draft boards would be entirely blown up.  To give you an idea of the wide range of scenarios, here is the list of players cited by Callis, Collazo, Law and McDaniel as possibilities for each team drafting in the top eight, along with which pundit selected which prospect for each top-eight team in their mock draft.

  • 1. Pirates: Mayer (Callis/Collazo/Law/McDaniel), Henry Davis, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, Jack Leiter
  • 2. Rangers: Leiter (Callis), Lawlar (Collazo/Law), Davis (McDaniel), Kumar Rocker, Mayer, Watson….in a contrast to the other three pundits, Callis writes that Texas has Lawlar and Davis “on the back burner” behind Watson, Mayer, and Leiter.  “Watson has real heat at this spot,” Collazo writes.
  • 3. Tigers: Mayer, Jackson Jobe (Callis/Collazo), Leiter (Law), Brady House (McDaniel), Lawlar, Watson, possibly Rocker “as a big maybe” in Collazo’s words
  • 4. Red Sox: Lawlar (Callis), Davis (Law), Leiter (Collazo/McDaniel)….Collazo doesn’t believe Leiter would fall beyond Boston at fourth overall,
  • 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks.
  • 6. Diamondbacks: Rocker (Callis), Davis (Collazo), Watson (Law), Lawlor (McDaniel), Jobe
  • 7. Royals: Watson (Callis), Rocker (Collazo/Law/McDaniel)….this is another minor consensus area, as Law and McDaniel believe that Rocker isn’t likely to fall beyond Kansas City.  “The market for Rocker is weirdly specific,” Law writes, citing the Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Nationals, and Mets as perhaps the only true interested parties.  Of course, Callis projected the D’Backs to take Rocker at sixth overall, so Arizona could also be a candidate for the Vanderbilt righty.
  • 8. Rockies: House (Callis/Collazo/Law), Benny Montgomery (McDaniel), Jobe

All four mock drafts are well worth reading in full, to get a sense of what the 29 teams with first-round picks are generally targeting this year or have historically looked for in past drafts.  (The Astros aren’t included, as they lost their first-rounder as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.)

For more on the prospects themselves, you can check out the aforementioned lists from McDaniel and MLB Pipeline, Baseball America’s top 500 list, or some of the individual writeups from the Sports Info Solutions blog on such top college players as Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, Wake Forest right-hander Ryan Cusick, UCLA shortstop Matt McClain, and Mississippi right-hander Gunnar Hoglund.

MLBTR Poll: How Should The Royals Proceed With Danny Duffy?

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Royals left-hander Danny Duffy made his return from the injured list this evening, starting tonight’s game against the Yankees. The 32-year-old tossed two scoreless innings in a purposely brief appearance, his first action in a little more than a month. Before going on the IL with a left flexor strain, Duffy had gotten off to a very strong start to the season. Through seven starts totaling 41 2/3 innings, he worked to a pristine 1.94 ERA/2.35 FIP/3.65 SIERA.

Over the season’s first month-plus, he punched out a well above-average 28.2% of opposing hitters, a career-best mark, while walking only 7.1%. On a pitch-by-pitch basis, Duffy generated swings and misses at a 14.2% clip, also a career-best figure that’s well above the league average of 11.4%. His average fastball, slider and curveball velocity were all up between one and two ticks relative to last season. He held that increased pitch speed in today’s start, a welcome development considering there could’ve been some concern about potential lingering effects of the injury and accompanying layoff.

Because of the injury, his body of work remains a fairly small sample. Duffy’s had better month-plus stretches in his career, but he hasn’t had a seven-start run at this level since late in 2017, his last season posting an ERA below 4.00. Duffy’s not going to sustain an ERA below 2.00, but he certainly looks to have bounced back from his middling 2018-20 form. Between 2016-17, the veteran worked to a 3.64 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk numbers- solid mid-rotation production. Given his improved raw stuff and early-season peripherals, it’s not unreasonable to think he can approximate that kind of performance moving forward.

If Duffy continues to pitch at an above-average level while building back towards a starter’s workload, contending clubs figure to reach out about his potential availability. The Royals got off to a strong start but they’ve fallen off rather precipitously since the start of May. Now 33-39, Kansas City has fallen ten games back in the American League Central. They don’t seem like plausible postseason contenders in 2021. With Duffy slated to be a free agent at the end of the year- and the trade market for starting pitching shaping up to be thin- he’d be a fairly straightforward trade candidate in most organizations.

The Royals operate differently than many MLB teams, though. The front office has a reputation for being more loyal than most, and they’ve re-signed or reacquired many of the players who contributed to their pennant-winning clubs of the last decade. Trading away marquee players midseason hasn’t been their M.O.

In the past, Duffy has expressed a desire to stick in Kansas City for his entire career. In response to 2017 trade rumors, he rather famously tweeted “bury me a Royal” and expressed a strong affinity for the organization and the city. Even if the front office were willing to consider moving him near the deadline, Duffy could end those discussions. He entered the season with 9.085 years of MLB service, meaning he’ll have eclipsed ten years by July 30. Players with ten years of service, the most recent five with the same team, are granted full no-trade rights under the terms of the CBA. If Duffy has no interest in moving elsewhere midseason, he could exercise his 10-and-5 rights and block a move.

The Royals’ record and Duffy’s impending free agency could open a mutually-beneficial opportunity for a midseason deal, though. Trading Duffy (with his permission) before July 30 could give him an opportunity to play in a pennant race in 2021 and allow the organization to bring in some young talent. A midseason trade wouldn’t foreclose the two sides reuniting next winter. It’s not common for teams to sign players whom they traded away midseason in free agency the following offseason, but it’s not completely unheard of, either (the Cubs’ 2014 deal with Jason Hammel and the Yankees’ 2016 reunion with Aroldis Chapman being prominent examples). A trade would result in Duffy forfeiting his 10-and-5 rights, but the sides could agree on a no-trade clause as part of a free agent deal if he’s concerned about being moved again in the future.

It’s certainly possible the two sides work out a long-term deal during or after the year, with Duffy never changing uniforms. While it seems unlikely, there’s some chance the Royals hang onto Duffy all season but allow him to depart in free agency. But the opportunity also seems to exist for a trade that could appeal to both Duffy and the Royals, even if both sides want to continue the relationship over the long term.

We’ll turn things over to the MLBTR readership: how should and how will the Royals handle Duffy’s impending free agency? (poll links for app users)

 

 

Royals Place Adalberto Mondesi On 10-Day IL

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12:57PM: The Royals have officially announced the move, with Mondesi sent to the 10-day IL with a strained left oblique.  O’Hearn has been recalled from Triple-A.

12:41PM: Royals shortstop Adalberto Mondesi looks to be going back onto the 10-day injured list with an oblique injury, GM Dayton Moore told the Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy (Twitter links) and other reporters.  First baseman/outfielder Ryan O’Hearn will likely be the Triple-A call-up that replaces Mondesi on the active roster.

Mondesi was removed after six innings in yesterday’s 7-3 Royals victory over the Red Sox due to discomfort in his left side.  This latest oblique injury is on the opposite side of the body from the other oblique strain that sidelined Mondesi at the start of the season, delaying his debut until May 25.

Between that lengthy IL stint and another trip to the injured list for a hamstring strain, Mondesi has appeared in only 10 games all season.  While Mondesi has made the most of that brief playing time by posting a 1.212 OPS in 38 plate appearances, it has thus far been a lost season for the 25-year-old.

Once one of baseball’s top prospects, Mondesi has shown flashes of that potential over his 318 career MLB games, including a torrid stretch last September that saw him post a 1.130 OPS over his last 93 PA.  However, Mondesi’s hot streak was tempered by a miserable .440 OPS in his first 140 PA of the 2020 season, and he has been hampered by injuries both this season and in 2019.  Mondesi has already displayed strong defense, speed, and baserunning skills, so it isn’t out of the question that he could still unlock some superstar-level production with more consistent hitting and if he can just stay on the field.

Latest On Danny Duffy

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  • Danny Duffy “felt really good” in the aftermath of a 40-pitch bullpen session on Friday, indicating that the Royals southpaw could be nearing a return from the flexor strain that sent him to the injured list back on May 17.  As Duffy told Lynn Worthy of The Kansas City Star, the initial tightness he felt in his forearm is now “gone, everything’s gone.  It’s one of those things, modern medicine is a miracle.  We’ve got the right people who get their hands on us in the training room….On the MRI, they said my ligament is completely intact, so we’re good.  I’m not nervous about it at all. I’m ready to go.”  No plans have yet been made about any possible rehab assignment, though manager Mike Matheny indicated that Duffy could return sometime during the Royals’ upcoming 10-game road trip from June 22-July 1.  Duffy was off to a great start prior to his injury, posting a 1.94 ERA and above-average strikeout (28.2%) and walk (7.1%) rates over 41 2/3 innings.

Royals Select Anthony Swarzak

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The Royals announced they’ve selected the contract of reliever Anthony Swarzak. Righty Ronald Bolaños was transferred to the 60-day injured list to create 40-man roster space.

Swarzak, 35, pitched in six games earlier this year with the Diamondbacks. He allowed five runs over 4 2/3 innings, striking out four while walking just one. Arizona cut Swarzak loose at the end of April, and he latched on with the Royals not long thereafter on a minor league deal. He got off to a fantastic start with Triple-A Omaha, punching out 14 of 33 batters faced (42.4%) while not issuing a walk. He allowed three runs (two earned) in 9 1/3 frames as a Storm Chaser before earning his way back to the big leagues.

Bolaños went on the IL earlier this week with a forearm strain. It’s not yet clear if that’ll require surgical repair, but he’s now out until at least mid-August. The 24-year-old was off to a strong start to the year, striking out ten while issuing just a pair of walks over 6 1/3 relief innings.

Brady Singer Leaves Start Early With Shoulder Soreness

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  • Royals right-hander Brady Singer was removed from yesterday’s start after three innings as a precautionary measure after he experienced right posterior shoulder tightness, the team announced. It’s not clear if he’s in jeopardy of missing his next start. The 24-year-old has only managed a 4.76 ERA in 68 innings this season, but Singer’s generally average strikeout and walk numbers (23.3% and 8.2%, respectively) and strong 50.5% groundball rate suggest he’s been a bit unlucky to allow so many runs.

Royals Activate Adalberto Mondesi From IL

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