Cafardo On Free Agency, Price, Nathan, Lackey

Free agents are not allowed to negotiate with all 30 MLB clubs until 11:01 pm (CT) Monday, but agent Scott Boras says his phone was ringing off the hook regarding Jacoby Ellsbury and Stephen Drew within hours of the Red Sox winning the World Series, reports Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The Yankees will be the most interesting team during free agency, according to Cafardo, but will be hamstrung until a decision is made on Alex Rodriguez's appeal. Cafardo also lists the Phillies, Tigers, Giants, Orioles, Blue Jays, and Rangers as active participants in the free agent market. In other tidbits from his Sunday Baseball Notes column:

Free Agent Profile: Jason Vargas

Looking for more stability in their rotation last offseason, the Angels dealt from their surplus of corner bats and sent Kendrys Morales to the Mariners in exchange for innings eater Jason Vargas. A freak injury cost Vargas about 50 or so innings of his season, but his final numbers look similar to what he's produced over the three previous years. He'll look to cash in on that consistency as a free agent.

Strengths/Pros

Vargas is an innings eater, and there's something to be said for free agents who can be expected to take the ball every fifth day. Vargas-JasonA freak blood clot that required surgery landed him on the shelf for nearly two months, but aside from that, Vargas hasn't been on the disabled list since 2008. He's had only one arm-related injury in his career — a minor offseason procedure to remove bone chips from his elbow in October 2007.

Even though he missed nearly two months in 2013, Vargas still racked up 150 innings, and the missed time brought his yearly average down to a still-strong 190 innings dating back to 2010. Vargas has a 3.97 ERA in that time, thanks largely to his plus command (2.5 BB/9 in that stretch). His strikeout rate has steadily crept upward over the past four seasons as well.

Vargas pitches left-handed, but he doesn't have much of a platoon split. Over the past four seasons, lefties have hit .257/.306/.383 against him, and right-handers have a similar .253/.309/.419 batting line.

Vargas was a late bloomer and did some of his early work out of the bullpen. As such, he has just under 1,400 professional innings under his belt. He doesn't have a lot of mileage on his arm for a 31-year-old, and he won't be attached to draft pick compensation, as the Angels don't figure to make him a qualifying offer due to luxury tax concerns.

Weaknesses/Cons

Vargas' strikeout rate may be on the rise, but even the career-best K/9 that he posted this season was a below-average 6.5. His fastball sits in the 87-88 mph range, so he's not going to overpower any hitters.

Vargas is a fly-ball pitcher that has benefited from pitching in pitchers parks such as Seattle's Safeco Field and Angels Stadium in Anaheim over the past four seasons. Vargas' 4.61 road ERA, 4.70 road FIP and 4.73 road xFIP point to the fact that he's benefited tremendously from those spacious environments. His home numbers — 3.39, 3.76 and 4.23, respectively — are much stronger and suggest that he's best-suited for a bigger park.

In particular, he struggles with homers on the road. Vargas has allowed just 48 homers in 497 home innings (0.87 HR/9) throughout his career, but he's yielded 77 big flies in 482 2/3 innings (1.43 HR/9).

Personal

Vargas is an excellent athlete that played three seasons at quarterback in high school football and is an avid golfer in his free time. His arrival with the Angels reunited him with college teammate Jered Weaver. Baseball runs in Vargas' family, as he is the second cousin of Randy Velarde, who enjoyed a 16-year career as an infielder with the Yankees, Angels and A's. Vargas is very active in charities and co-founded Estrella Youth Sports in Goodyear, Ariz. — a non-profit youth program that aims to develop positive role models through participation in sports.

Market

Vargas isn't an elite rotation piece, and teams that need top-of-the-rotation arms aren't likely to make him a prime target. He's a strong back-end starter and can slide into the middle of a rotation if needed, and plenty of teams will be looking for such arms. The Angels will likely make an effort to re-sign Vargas to a multiyear deal, and the Apple Valley, Calif. native is interested in a return. The Orioles showed some interest on the trade market this summer.

In addition to the O's and Angels, I'd expect contenders like the Royals, Indians and Pirates to show interest. Teams that didn't contend in 2013 but simply need reliable innings could show interest as well, with the Twins, Mariners, Brewers, Padres and Giants coming to mind.

Teams in smaller parks will likely be more hesitant regarding Vargas, but the Phillies, Yankees and Blue Jays are all looking for pitching help as well. Vargas and agent Nez Balelo of CAA Sports should have plenty of interested teams to negotiate with over the course of the winter.

Expected Contract

Vargas doesn't come with a ton of upside, but he's a consistent source of 200 or so innings at or slightly below the league average. Even if he's not an outstanding performer, durability pays on the open market. Vargas is younger than Jeremy Guthrie, and his four years prior to free agency are similar to Guthrie's in terms of innings pitched, ERA+, K/9 and BB/9. In terms of superficial stats, Vargas stacks up well against Ricky Nolasco over the past four years, though the latter has him dwarfed in terms of sabermetric stats. He's similar to Scott Feldman in terms of performance, but Vargas has a much more consistent track record.

Balelo could try to parlay his client's durability and consistency into a four-year contract, given his relative youth, but three years is more realistic for someone with Vargas' limited upside. He should be able to top Guthrie's contract but is likely to fall short of whatever amount Nolasco will receive.

I waffled between a three-year, $27MM deal and a three-year, $30MM deal for Vargas, so I'm splitting the difference and predicting a three-year, $28.5MM contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

AL West Notes: Mariners, Angels, Astros

The Mariners interviewed Dave Valle for their managerial opening this week, Ted Keith of SI.com reports. Valle played in ten seasons for the Mariners, primarily at catcher, but has no prior coaching experience. As Keith notes, teams appear to value prior managing experience, at least, less than they once did, with Mike Matheny, Robin Ventura, Bryan Price, Don Mattingly and John Farrell all winning jobs without prior managing experience in the Majors or the minors. Valle has recently worked in broadcasting. Here's more on the AL West.

  • The Angels aren't likely to extend a qualifying offer to free agent Jason Vargas, but they might sign him to a multiyear deal anyway, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports. Vargas would likely decline the Angels' qualifying offer, DiGiovanna says, but the Angels don't want to offer one because the $14.1MM commitment if Vargas were to accept would move them close to the $189MM luxury tax threshold.
  • The Angels' luxury-tax issues will likely mean they'll attempt to upgrade their rotation primarily through trades, explains Alden Gonzalez of MLB.com. If they bring Vargas back, it would appear to be for less on a yearly basis than the $14.1MM qualifying offer. In the meantime, they'll hope to acquire young pitching by dealing players like Mark Trumbo, Howie Kendrick, Erick Aybar or Peter Bourjos. Doing so might also help them shed salary.
  • The Astros' payroll could rise to $50MM or $60MM next year, writes MLB.com's Brian McTaggart. That doesn't sound like much, but it's a huge increase over the team's $13MM 2013 payroll. "If you add three or four key positions and bring in a couple of guys [from the Minor Leagues] that are ready, this team is pretty competitive pretty quickly with the starting pitching we've got," says owner Jim Crane. "We're deep in pitching." McTaggart writes that the Astros will look for bullpen help, but they could also in a power hitter (perhaps a corner outfielder) and a starting pitcher.

Padres Have Interest In Mark Trumbo

The Padres have interest in Angels first baseman Mark Trumbo, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (on Twitter). The Angels are known to be interested in acquiring pitching for Trumbo, however, and Shaikin notes that San Diego might not be the best match — their collection of young pitching includes several players (Cory Luebke, Joe Wieland, Casey Kelly) who are in various stages of recovery from Tommy John surgery.

Yonder Alonso hit .281/.341/.368 as the Padres' primary first baseman in 2013. Trumbo would likely be an upgrade, although it remains to be seen how his power-dependent game would play in pitcher-friendly PETCO Park. Trumbo appears set to make about $4.7MM in 2014, his first year of arbitration eligibility.

Angels Willing To Trade Bourjos, Trumbo For Pitching

The Angels' desire for young, controllable pitching is no secret, and ESPN's Buster Olney reports that they've indicated to other teams a willingness to trade center fielder Peter Bourjos or first baseman Mark Trumbo to acquire such talent (Twitter link).

Bourjos and Trumbo both have three years of team control remaining, and each is eligible for arbitration for the first time this winter. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects that Bourjos, who turns 27 in March, will earn $1.1MM in 2014. Trumbo, set to turn 28 in January, is projected by Swartz to see his salary jump to $4.7MM.

The salary gap between the two is sizable due to the fact that arbitration rewards Trumbo's power-oriented game while overlooking Bourjos' speed- and defense-oriented game. In terms of WAR, both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference feel that Bourjos has actually been more valuable through 354 big league games than Trumbo has through 450. Bourjos has been worth 9.0 fWAR and 8.4 rWAR to Trumbo's 6.6 fWAR and 7.6 rWAR.

Trumbo has shown more durability than Bourjos, appearing in at least 144 games in each of the past three seasons and slashing .251/.300/.473 with 95 home runs in that time. On-base percentage is unlikely to ever be one of his strong points, but his right-handed power is among the game's best, and he's been a solid defender at first base by both UZR and DRS.

Pointing out Bourjos' lack of games played isn't entirely fair, given that the majority of the time he's spent on the disabled list has come as a result of being hit by a pitch on the wrist two different times. He does have a pair of hamstring-related DL stints as well, though the hamstring issues have amounted to less time on the shelf than his wrist woes. Over the past three seasons, Bourjos is hitting .262/.321/.401 (104 OPS+). Since his promotion to the Majors, he's tied with Michael Bourn for second among center fielders in defensive value added, according to Fangraphs, trailing only Carlos Gomez for the league lead.

The free agent market offers little in the way of reliable, right-handed power at first base, with Mike Napoli representing the best option. Corey Hart belongs in that conversation too, but he was unable to take the field in 2013 after surgery on both knees. Likewise, the center field market is bleak beyond one high-priced star and another coming off an inury-riddled season. Jacoby Ellsbury may sign the second-biggest contract of the offseason, and Curtis Granderson was hit by a pair of pitches that resulted in a pair of broken bones and nearly 100 games on the DL. With little help on the free agent market, three years of Bourjos or Trumbo will be highly desirable alternatives that should net at least one solid young arm, should the Angels pull the trigger on a deal.

The Angels are also said to be willing to trade Howie Kendrick this offseason, and Erick Aybar was discussed at this year's trade deadline, so he could be on the block as well. Also on the trade front, the Blue Jays are interested in Hank Conger or Chris Iannetta. Angels GM Jerry Dipoto figures to be in for a busy offseason and will have plenty of avenues to explore in order to add the young pitching he's looking to acquire.

AL Notes: Wotus, Corrigan, Orioles, Youkilis

What are the biggest holes to be filled by potential 2014 contenders? Writing for ESPN, Paul Swydan lists catcher for the Tigers, right field for the Orioles, and DH for the Yankees. Having already covered some of this evening's news from the AL Central side, here are more notes from the American League:

  • The Mariners have interviewed Giants bench coach Ron Wotus for the team's manager role, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Heyman notes that Wotus joins a lengthy group of candidates vying to become the new Seattle skipper. 
  • The Angels lost major league special assignment scout Larry Corrigan, who will return to the Twins in some capacity, Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times reports via Twitter. Corrigan has previously been described as one of GM Jerry Dipoto's most trusted scouts.
  • While the Orioles have a lengthy list of free agents, the club is taking its time addressing their situations, reports Dan Connolly of the Balitimore Sun. With well-known names like Scott Feldman, Nate McLouth, Michael Morse, Brian Roberts, and Francisco Rodriguez all coming off the books, the Baltimore front office has to decide who to pursue. "We haven't moved on any of those free agents yet," said executive VP Dan Duquette.
  • Yankees third baseman Kevin Youkilis is healthy and ready to test the free agent market once more, agent Joe Bick tells Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News. The 35-year-old was a bust for the Yanks, who got 28 games off subpar production from him at a cost of $12MM. 

Arbitration Eligibles: Los Angeles Angels

Matt Swartz has developed a very accurate model that MLBTR uses to project arbitration salaries, as explained in this series of posts. We've heard from many MLB teams and agencies that reference the projections in their work.  The Angels are next in our series.  Estimated service time is in parentheses, and estimated 2014 salary follows.

Trumbo projects for a healthy salary his first time through arbitration, with career numbers of 95 home runs and 284 RBI and a platform year with 34 homers and 100 knocked in.  His flaw is a .299 career on-base percentage, which should improve if he holds onto gains in his walk rate and his batting average recovers.  There is value in a player with Trumbo's profile, especially at $4.7MM.  I wouldn't be too aggressive about a long-term deal, though, and a healthy Albert Pujols would give the Angels the depth to consider trading Trumbo.

Bourjos is another trade candidate.  This year a hamstring injury and wrist fracture each cost him over a month, with September wrist surgery ending his season.  Angels GM Jerry Dipoto showed faith in Bourjos as his starting center fielder entering the season, and if Trumbo, Pujols, and Josh Hamilton are rotated through the designated hitter spot in 2014, there's room for everyone to start.  On the other hand, MVP candidate Mike Trout is more than capable of handling center, making a Bourjos trade possible.  Bourjos' value is at a low point after the injuries limited him to just 55 games in 2013, but he's also quite affordable his first time through arbitration and should remain cheap beyond 2014.

Frieri notched 37 saves in 2013, so he'll get paid through arbitration despite allowing 11 home runs with a 3.80 ERA.  Agents of relievers like Joe Nathan, Grant Balfour, Joaquin Benoit, Edward Mujica, and Brian Wilson are surely hoping the Angels will throw some money at the ninth inning this winter, pushing Frieri to a setup role.  Regardless, he's worth retaining at his projected salary.

The Angels' bullpen also includes arbitration eligible relievers Jepsen and Gutierrez.  Jepsen, 29, averaged almost 96 miles per hour on his fastball and whiffed a batter per inning in 2013.  He also allowed 41 hits in 36 innings, missing time due to a lat strain and emergency appendectomy.  With a $1.4MM projection, he's worth retaining.  Gutierrez, another hard thrower, won a spot in the Royals' bullpen out of Spring Training but was designated for assignment in July.  The Angels added him on a waiver claim, and he posted a 5.19 ERA for them in 26 innings despite striking out 9.7 per nine innings.  His spot on the 40-man roster seems tenuous, even with a low projected salary.

Williams was again a useful swingman, but with his salary projected to nearly double, the Angels might consider non-tendering him and using the funds elsewhere.  Hanson is a certain non-tender, after missing significant time due to a personal matter, hitting the DL for a forearm strain, and getting a demotion to Triple-A.  At just 27 years old, Hanson's former promise may earn him a big league contract on the free agent market, if his health checks out.

With two years and 122 days of Major League service, Nelson represents the unofficial Super Two cutoff for 2013.  With a projected salary only $500K over the league minimum, that's not a big factor in the Angels' tender decision.  Nelson joined the Angels from the Yankees on a May 18th waiver claim, but was designated for assignment less than a month later.  He remained in the organization after accepting an outright assignment, and after finding his way back to the bigs hit the DL for a hamstring injury.  Expect him to be cut loose by the Angels.

If the Angels tender contracts to Trumbo, Frieri, Jepsen, and Bourjos, they're looking at a projected $10.6MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels Of Anaheim

The Angels came into this season with extremely high hopes but they stumbled badly out of the gate – dropping 27 of their first 42 games – and never recovered.  This season, owner Arte Moreno wants to get his money's worth.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration Eligibles (service time in parentheses)

Free Agents

Jason Vargas

The Angels would love nothing more than to make their first order of business a lengthy extension for star Mike Trout, but that's probably not in the cards thanks to the hefty contracts given to Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton, and others.  The collective bargaining agreement calls for deals to be calculated by their average annual value, meaning that the Angels couldn't skirt the luxury tax with a backloaded pact.  

The Angels have their top three starters taken care of, but beyond that they've got question marks galore and a major need for reinforcements.  Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson will be joined at the top of the rotation by Garrett Richards, who broke out in a big way in 2013.  The No. 4 starter could be filled by Jason Vargas, if he's re-signed, but that's far from a given.  The Halos are unlikely to extend him the one-year, $14MM qualifying offer as it would zap most of their available money.  Vargas posted a 4.01 ERA with 6.6 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 in 143 2/3 innings in 2013 and missed a good amount of time due to a blood clotting issue.

Even if Vargas does return, the Halos will search far and wide for starting pitching depth after being ravaged by injuries in 2013.  Jerome Williams and Tommy Hanson are both arbitration eligible and both could be non-tendered by the club this winter.  Joe Blanton, who is owed $8.5MM over the next two years, could be released before Opening Day.  Even if he's back, the Angels certainly won't be counting on a guy who posted a 6.04 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 in 20 starts and eight relief appearances.  Unfortunately for the Angels, they won't have a ton of money to spend as they will try and be mindful of the $189MM luxury tax threshold.  Starting pitchers that might fit into their budget include Roberto Hernandez and Chris Capuano.  Looking a notch below, Jeff Karstens and Chad Gaudin are on the open market and can be used as relievers/spot starters.  The Angels want to lock down a quality starting five, but they'll make an effort to have at least a couple of guys beyond that who can step in if the injury bug bites again.

The Angels' bullpen was pretty bad in 2013 – their collective 4.12 ERA was the fifth-worst in the majors – but they turned things around late in the season and showed what they are capable of when everything is clicking.  They figured to get solid production out of their pen heading the season, but injuries to left-hander Sean Burnett and Ryan Madson proved to be devastating.  Burnett will be back in the fold in 2014 to lend support to closer Ernesto Frieri along with guys like Michael Kohn, Dane De La Rosa, Kevin Jepsen (if he's tendered an offer), J.C. Gutierrez (ditto), and Cory Rasmus.  The Angels could look into affordable relievers like Chad Qualls and Matt Lindstrom (if his option is declined) to ensure that next season won't be a repeat of 2013 for the bullpen.  If they want to pair Burnett with an inexpensive second left-hander, southpaw Mike Gonzalez is out there.

The Angels have several attractive assets but the most likely to get moved is second baseman Howie Kendrick.  The veteran was dangled to clubs before the trade deadline this year but GM Jerry Dipoto didn't get any offers worth taking.  Moving Kendrick becomes easier this offseason – his no-trade list shrivels from a dozen teams to just six.  With $18.85MM owed to him over the next two seasons, Kendrick isn't the cheapest second baseman out there, but there are definitely clubs that are looking for answers at the position.  The Royals need help at second base and GM Dayton Moore figures to make at least a couple phone calls to the west coast.  The Orioles will also be in the market for a second baseman if they don't re-sign veteran Brian Roberts.  The Halos can move Kendrick for some arms and get by with Grant Green in his place.

The Blue Jays have interest in catchers Hank Conger and Chris Iannetta, according to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, and Toronto has already reached out to the Halos to get the conversation started.  Moving Iannetta ($10.5MM through 2015) would certainly free up some cash and the Angels could even kill two birds with one stone if they're dealing with the Blue Jays, who are in need of a second baseman.  

They''ll find an especially robust market if they are willing to move shortstop Erick Aybar, but all indications are that they're resistant to that idea.  Moving Kendrick is doable because they can use Green in his stead, but they feel that replacing Aybar would be trickier since they don't have anyone in-house to take his spot.  The Cardinals came calling this summer when they were looking for an upgrade over Pete Kozma, but talks petered out quickly when the Angels asked for top prospects Michael Wacha or Carlos Martinez.  

Mark Trumbo could bring the club a nice pitching haul if they decide to move him.  The Halos fielded calls from the Mariners, Pirates, and Royals in July and the Marlins showed their fondness for him last December.  The alternative to parting with Trumbo's big bat could be trading center fielder Peter Bourjos.  While the defensively-sharp 26-year-old probably wouldn't bring in the same kind of return as Trumbo, he definitely has value.  Bourjos will be under team control for the next three years and he figures to stay affordable since his skill set isn't rewarded all that well in arbitration.  Freeing up center field for Mike Trout could also help the club in their bid to lock him up long-term.

Third base is in flux now that Alberto Callaspo is out of the picture.  Green is a candidate to be the full-time guy there, but if Kendrick goes then there's going to be a hole at one position or the other.  Luis Jimenez (.260/.291/.317 in 34 games in 2013) and Chris Nelson (.227/.273/.327 for three teams in '13; possible non-tender candidate)  could also take the reins, but neither one is particularly inspiring.  But, once again, the team's budget constraints means that finding an outside solution will be difficult.

Arte Moreno has spent major money over the last two winters to try and construct a powerhouse team in the AL West.  This year, he'll have to do the best he can with limited resources.

Managerial/Coaching Links: Molitor, Dodgers, Tigers, Hale

The Twins announced today that they have added Hall of Famer and St. Paul native Paul Molitor to their Major League coaching staff. Molitor has been an oft-rumored candidate to be Ron Gardenhire's successor in the Twin Cities media, but with Gardenhire receiving a two-year extension, Molitor will oversee baserunning, bunting, infield instruction/positioning and assist with in-game strategy from the dugout. He has previously served as the Mariners' hitting coach and coached with the Twins under manager Tom Kelly in 2000-01.

Here's more on the managerial/coaching front from around the league…

  • The Dodgers announced that the options of coaches Davey Lopes, Rick Honeycutt and Tim Wallach's were exercised for 2014.  Hitting coach Mark McGwire was already under contract for next season.  It's an apparent indication that the Dodgers would prefer for Mattingly to stay, tweets Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times (Twitter link), as a new manager would want to have some say in his staff.  However, the renewal of the coaches' contracts wouldn't preclude a promotion for Wallach (link).
  • The Dodgers have fired bench coach Trey Hillman and advanced scout Wade Taylor, according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (on Twitter). Both were close with manager Don Mattingly, who said at a press conference yesterday that his return in 2014 wasn't a guarantee just because his option vested and added that he wanted his entire coaching staff to return in 2014. The dismissal of Hillman and Taylor figures to add to the tension between Mattingly and the Dodgers brass.
  • Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times tweets that Dodgers GM Ned Colletti informed Hillman of his dismissal, but Mattingly, who hired Hillman, was not involved.
  • John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press runs down a list of candidates for the recently vacated Tigers managerial position. Former Pirates manager and current hitting coach Lloyd McClendon is the leading in-house candidate, but Lowe contacted Dusty Baker and Eric Wedge, both of whom expressed interest in the job. GM Dave Dombrowski said yesterday that the Tigers would hire someone with either Major League or Minor League managerial experience, adds Lowe, which seemingly takes former Detroit backstop Brad Ausmus out of the running.
  • The Nationals have intereviewed Blue Jays bench coach DeMarlo Hale for their managerial vacancy, reports Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post. Hale is the fifth candidate interviewed by the Nats (and third external candidate). He has previously interviewed for managerial openings with the Mariners (2009), Blue Jays (2011) and Cubs (2012). Kilgore adds that the Nationals were impressed by Hale's interview.
  • The Rangers announced yesterday that they have hired Tim Bogar as their bench coach. The 47-year-old Bogar spent 2012 managing the Angels' Double-A affiliate and spent the 2009-12 seasons filling the positions of Major League first base coach, third base coach and bench coach for the Red Sox.

Blue Jays Interested In Iannetta, Conger

Catcher is known to be a priority for the Blue Jays this offseason, and Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun reports that the team is interested in Chris Iannetta and Hank Conger of the Angels. According to Elliott, the Blue Jays have already begun their efforts to acquire one of Anaheim's backstops.

As MLBTR's Mark Polishuk noted in analyzing the Blue Jays' upcoming offseason, the team is set at most offensive positions with the exception of catcher and second base. Mark noted that while incumbent J.P. Arencibia may not be non-tendered, his days as the team's starter are likely over. Toronto's desire to acquire one of the Angels' catchers and their interest in Washington's Wilson Ramos seem to support that line of thinking.

Iannetta, who turns 31 next April, might at first appear to be similar to Arencibia given his low batting averages and escalating strikeout rate (25.1 percent in 2013). However, Iannetta has always been adept at drawing a walk. In fact, he drew nearly as many walks in 399 plate appearances in 2013 (68) as Arencibia has in his entire career (74). Overall, Iannetta batted .225/.358/.372 for the Halos in the first season of a three-year, $15.5MM extension. He'll earn $4.975MM in 2014 and $5.525MM in 2015. In each of those seasons, his contract calls for an additional $100K bonus for starting 90 games at catcher and $125K when he reaches each of 100, 110, 115, 120 and 125 starts behind the dish.

The switch-hitting Conger batted .249/.310/.403 in 2013. He'll turn just 26 years old in January and won't be eligible for arbitration until next offseason. Originally selected by the Angels with the No. 25 overall pick in the 2006 draft, Conger has never gotten a full season's worth of at-bats with the Halos despite a robust .298/.371/.470 slash line in 854 career plate appearances at Triple-A.

As we saw last offseason, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has no problem dealing young talent to fill holes on his big league roster. Though the Blue Jays' farm system was depleted after acquiring R.A. Dickey, Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle and Josh Johnson in trades, the team still has plenty of minor league pitchers that would pique the Angels' interest. According to MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo, the Blue Jays' top six prospects are all pitchers, though a top prospect along the lines of Aaron Sanchez would seem far too steep a price for either of the catchers in question.

If the Blue Jays really want to get aggressive, they could look to structure a deal that would land one of Iannetta or Conger as well as second baseman Howie Kendrick, who is known to be available. While that scenario is purely my speculation, such a trade would address both of the major holes highlighted in Polishuk's outlook. The Blue Jays own two of the first 11 picks in next year's draft, so they would have ample opportunity to add high-end talent to their farm system following another aggressive winter on the trade market.

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