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NL Central Notes: Hamilton, Reds, Brewers, Astros

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Here's a look at the latest out of the NL Central..

  • There are several reasons why the Reds won't look to orchestrate a reunion with Josh Hamilton this winter, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  For starters, it has been projected that the outfielder can net upwards of $20MM to possibly $30MM annually in his next contract.  Fay classifies $20MM as a pipe dream for the Reds while $30MM would be downright impossible.
  • The Brewers outrighted infielder Hector Gomez to Triple-A, tweets Media Relations Director Mike Vassallo.  The 24-year-old, who was ranked as a top 100 prospect in 2008 by Baseball America, has yet to advance beyond Double-A.
  • The Astros announced that they have added hitting coach John Mallee and Dave Trembley to their staff for 2013.  The club will retain pitching coach Doug Brocail and third base coach Dave Clark while adding two more to the staff in the coming weeks.

NL Central Notes: Ludwick, Sanchez, Astros

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As the Cardinals continue to battle the Giants in the NLCS, here's the latest from the NL Central…

  • The Reds probably won't be able to afford Ryan Ludwick if he insists on "market value" for veteran corner outfielders, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer.  That's probably true if Ludwick looks for the deals that Josh Willingham, Jason Kubel or Michael Cuddyer (Fay's comparables) received last winter, but Willingham and Cuddyer were the oldest of the trio, going into their age-33 seasons. Ludwick turns 35 in July, so a three-year deal seems far-fetched to me.
  • The Brewers announced they have purchased the contract of right-hander Jesus Sanchez and added him to their 40-man roster.  The 25-year-old Sanchez posted a combined 1.63 ERA in 52 relief appearances at the Double-A and Triple-A levels last season, plus a 2.91 K/BB ratio and 64 strikeouts in 71 2/3 innings.
  • The Astros won't have their coaching staff finalized for a week or two, GM Jeff Luhnow told reporters, including MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.  Only one or two members of the current Astros' staff is under consideration to return under new manager Bo Porter.  Bench coach Joe Pettini will not be back, reports McTaggart (Twitter link).

Carroll, Paulino, Eveland, Thomas Hit Free Agency

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We'll track the day's minor moves here…

  • Outfielder Brett Carroll and catcher Carlos Maldonado also elected free agency, Matt Eddy reports (on Twitter). Carroll appeared in five games for the Nationals this past season and Maldonado appeared in four.
  • Catcher Rob Johnson is a free agent after being removed from the Mets' 40-man roster, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com reports. Johnson, 30, appeared in 17 games for the Mets this year plus 45 contests for their Triple-A affiliate. 
  • Orioles catcher Ronny Paulino and left-hander Dana Eveland also elected free agency, according to Matt Eddy of Baseball America (Twitter links). Eveland appeared in 14 games for the Orioles, posting a 4.73 ERA, and Paulino appeared in 20 games.
  • Yankees left-hander Justin Thomas also elected free agency, according to Eddy. The Yankees outrighted Thomas to Triple-A earlier in the month.
  • Blue Jays reliever Juan Abreu has also elected free agency, Eddy reports. Abreu posted a 6.80 ERA in 42 minor league relief outings this past season.
  • The Brewers announced that Livan Hernandez and Yorvit Torrealba elected free agency after refusing outright assignments to Triple-A. The moves are procedural, as Hernandez and Torrealba were expected to hit free agency.

Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers' offense is as good as it gets, so they're expected to seek pitching this coming offseason.

Guaranteed Contracts 

Arbitration Eligible Players (estimated salaries)

Contract Options

  • None

Free Agents

The Brewers had a number of promising starting pitchers emerge over the course of the 2012 season, but that’s not going to stop general manager Doug Melvin from pursuing rotation help this coming offseason. Pairing Milwaukee’s high-powered offense with a deeper rotation could have the Brewers contending all season long in 2013.

Corey Hart - Brewers (PW)

Brewers fans are no doubt hoping for an improved bullpen next year. Any team can look back at a string of blown games and say ‘what if,’ but the Brewers’ stretch of losses in late July seemed especially debilitating. Though Brewers relievers were one of five groups to average more than one strikeout per inning, they ranked last in MLB with a 4.66 ERA, 29th in MLB in walk rate (4.1 BB/9) and 26th in home runs allowed (56). 

John Axford, and Francisco Rodriguez struggled at times, though they entered the season as Ron Roenicke's top relievers. Expect a new-look bullpen a few months from now, as Rodriguez's contract has expired and Manny Parra, Kameron Loe and Jose Veras could be traded or even non-tendered. Axford, viewed as an extension candidate seven months ago, has to prove himself again following an up-and-down season.

As a small market team with a medium-sized payroll, the Brewers aren't expected to spend big on relievers. Instead, they'll look for values in free agency and trades with the knowledge that they must find bullpen arms somewhere. Perhaps they'll pursue free agents like Jason Grilli or wait until January and February when bargains tend to emerge on the middle relief market. Their level of urgency will depend on their assessment of their own minor leaguers and their willingness to tender contracts to the likes of Parra, Loe and Veras.

The rotation, on the other hand, featured a number of breakout performances this past season. While Randy Wolf and Chris Narveson provided less value than anticipated, the 2012 season included encouraging performances from Marco Estrada (3.64 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 1.9 BB/9 in 138 1/3 innings), Mike Fiers (3.74 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 2.5 BB/9 in 127 2/3 innings), Mark Rogers (3.92 ERA, 9.5 K/9, 3.2 BB/9 in 39 innings) and Wily Peralta (2.48 ERA, 7.1 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 in 29 innings). With Yovani Gallardo in place atop the rotation and a number of emergent starters ready to contribute, the loss of Zack Greinke and Shaun Marcum becomes that much easier to withstand.

Marcum, a free agent for the first time in his career, isn't expected to receive a qualifying offer from the Brewers. Extending an offer would set the team up for draft pick compensation in case the right-hander signs elsewhere, but MLBTR's readers say it wouldn’t be a good idea for the Brewers, and it sounds as though Marcum expects to move on.

Melvin has said the Brewers intend to add a veteran starting pitcher, so if the club doesn't retain Marcum, other available starters figure to draw interest from Milwaukee. Free agents Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, Kyle Lohse, Dan Haren and Anibal Sanchez could become targets for the Brewers. Greinke, it seems, has priced himself out of Milwaukee after turning down a contract offer worth in excess of $100MM earlier this year.

The Brewers should strive to add multiple arms to the rotation, especially with so many relatively inexperienced pitchers competing for playing time. Injuries can strike at any time, and the Brewers can create depth now that could save them midway through the 2013 season. Now that rotation spots are seemingly available, minor league free agents might find Milwaukee more appealing than in years past. 

Nyjer Morgan might be the most prominent player in danger of being non-tendered by the Brewers, but he's definitely not the only one. As mentioned before, relievers Parra, Loe and Veras could be cut given their rising salaries ($1.2MM for Parra, $2.6MM for Loe, $2MM for Veras). Travis Ishikawa, a light-hitting backup first baseman, could also hit free agency early this winter since the Brewers have more affordable depth options at the position in Mat Gamel and Hunter Morris.

Corey Hart has said he'd like to continue playing for the Brewers beyond 2013, when his current contract will expire. Given the challenges of working out a deal midseason, the sides could explore an extension this winter. Recent contracts signed by Edwin Encarnacion and Carlos Quentin could be templates for Hart, who signed a similar deal midway through the 2010 season. Though other teams would have interest in acquiring Hart, a trade doesn't seem likely.

The offense that led the National League in runs scored (third in MLB) should return for the 2013 season. Led by established stars such as Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez and relative newcomers such as Jonathan Lucroy and Norichika Aoki, the Brewers are set at most positions. Josh Hamilton would be a welcome addition to any lineup and has connections on the Brewers' coaching staff, but he figures to be too expensive for Milwaukee. Melvin could look for a shortstop depending on his confidence in Jean Segura, the 22-year-old acquired from the Angels in the Greinke trade. If the Brewers do pursue depth at short, they'd presumably add someone on a one-year or minor league deal so as not to block Segura's path.

If the Brewers achieve some attainable goals — acquire starting pitching, improve the bullpen, consider adding a shortstop — they'll enter the 2013 season poised to contend again. Not bad for a franchise that lost Prince Fielder and Greinke in consecutive years.

Photo courtesy of US Presswire.

Olney On Hamilton, Brewers, Lohse

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The Brewers could pursue Josh Hamilton this offseason if the free agent outfielder doesn’t get any offers for four-plus years and more than $100MM, ESPN.com's Buster Olney writes. Here are more notes from Olney’s column…

  • The Brewers aren’t positioned to give Hamilton a massive contract, but they can offer him a comfortable place to play where he’d be supported. Johnny Narron, his former mentor, works as Milwaukee’s hitting coach, and Brewers bench coach Jerry Narron also knows the 31-year-old. While many outsiders lack detailed information about Hamilton’s off-field issues, the Narron brothers know the outfielder well enough to make a determination about his ability to continue producing.
  • At this point the Brewers intend to pursue multiple starters this offseason.
  • General managers expect free agent starting pitchers to do well this year, since there’s a shortage of viable options at a time that many teams are flush with dollars. The Blue Jays, Royals, Cubs and Angels are among the many teams known to be seeking starting pitching.
  • Some agents and general managers believe free agent starter Kyle Lohse could command a deal in the $60-75MM range, Olney reports.

Arbitration Eligibles: Milwaukee Brewers

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The Brewers are next in our 2013 Arbitration Eligibles series.  Matt Swartz's salary projections are below.

The Brewers' arbitration class includes four relievers: Axford, Loe, Parra, and Veras.  Axford was removed from the closer role in July, but was soon worked back into save situations.  Saves pay in arbitration, and Axford still amassed 35 of them in 2012 (and 106 for his career).  At $5.1MM, he'll already be expensive for a reliever after his first time through arbitration, but Axford will be back in 2013.  

Earlier this month, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel noted that the Brewers' bullpen will be "extensively retooled" behind Axford and Jim Henderson, so it's possible Loe, Veras, and Parra are all removed one way or another.  Loe struggled this year but would get credit in arbitration for 51 career holds.  Veras' already-shaky control slipped in 2012, but he still racks up strikeouts.  Parra missed all of 2011 with an elbow injury and returned in 2012 with 58 2/3 relief innings.  He remains tough on lefties and still throws hard, so he might be worth a $1.6MM investment.  On the other hand, with a 5.06 ERA and tons of baserunners, it's possible the Brewers have seen enough.  My guess is that Brewers GM Doug Melvin will shop this trio prior to the November 30th non-tender deadline.  

Starters Estrada and Narveson are first-time arbitration eligible.  Estrada posted a 3.76 ERA, 9.3 K/9, 1.7 BB/9, and 1.18 HR/9 in 23 starts, so he has a rotation spot locked up for 2013.  Narveson was serviceable in 2011, but he missed almost of all 2012 due to rotator cuff surgery.  If, as we're projecting, that keeps him under a million bucks for '13, the Brewers will probably tender him a contract.

The Brewers have three arbitration eligible position players: Morgan, Ishikawa, and Gomez.  Morgan lost his effectiveness against left-handed starters, and won't be worth his projected arbitration salary.  Ishikawa was decent in limited action, but there's still some danger of a non-tender.  Gomez hit a career-high 19 home runs, and is locked in as the Brewers' center fielder for next year.

The Brewers have a lot of borderline non-tender candidates in the bullpen, so it's tough to pin down a total salary estimate.  If only Axford, Gomez, Narveson, and Estrada are retained, that'd be a projected $10.9MM for four arbitration eligible players.

Matt Swartz's arbitration projections are available exclusively at MLB Trade Rumors.  To read more about his projection model, check out this series of posts.

Maysonet, Hernandez, Palmer Declare Free Agency

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Infielders Edwin Maysonet and Luis Hernandez and pitchers Matt Palmer and Juan Perez have declared free agency, according to the transactions page of the Pacific Coast League. All four had seen time on MLB rosters in 2012, before being outrighted to Triple-A.

Maysonet and Perez both saw action with the Brewers this year. Maysonet appeared in 30 games with a slash line of .250/.297/.350, including a game-winning grand slam against the Cubs on May 12, while playing shortstop, second and third base. Perez, a left-hander, appeared in ten games posting 12.9 K/9, 10.3 BB/9, and 2.6 HR/9 in only seven innings of work.

Hernandez played two games for the Rangers in August. He spent the rest of the year at Triple-A Round Rock batting .262/.303/.376 in 129 games, all but one at shortstop and second base. Hernandez also has MLB experience with the Orioles, Royals and Mets.

Palmer, a right-hander, pitched in three games for the Padres in late May before being outrighted to Triple-A. With Tucson, Palmer started 20 of the 21 games in which he appeared posting a 5.66 ERA with 5.8 K/9 and 3.8 BB/9.   

Brewers Notes: Starting Rotation, Hart, Weeks

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The Milwaukee Brewers experienced a roller coaster season in 2012 marked by injuries, blown saves, and being 12 games under .500 on August 20 before embarking on a 24-6 run that boosted them back into the Wild Card race until being eliminated on the final weekend of the season. Club officials say everyone feels better about the state of the franchise heading into the offseason. But, how will that shape the winter for the Brewers? Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel discussed that topic and other issues in a recent online chat with fans. Here are the highlights:

  • GM Doug Melvin will be looking to add a veteran to the starting rotation and Haudricourt named Ryan Dempster, Edwin Jackson, and Kyle Lohse as possibilities. A fan suggested Brandon McCarthy and Haudricourt acknowledged the Brewers will perform their due diligence, but any addition will only be made if the pitcher is affordable, the right fit, and wants to come to Milwaukee. 
  • Haudricourt anticipates the Brewers signing a free agent starting pitcher is a more likely scenario than trading for one because the club has some payroll flexibility and they've already traded away a lot of prospects for pitching in recent years.
  • Don't look for the Brewers to deal Corey Hart or Rickie Weeks to create more payroll flexibility. Haudricourt would be surprised if Hart, entering the final year of his contract with a 2013 salary of $10 MM, is traded despite the presence of Southern League MVP Hunter Morris. Weeks, due a guaranteed $21MM over the next two seasons, should also be safe, Haudricourt theorized, because the Brewers have enough money coming off the books to not have to worry about his salary. 
  • Haudricourt expects the payroll be less in 2013 than the $100 million-plus of this year, a spending level that should put the franchise in the red for 2012.
  • Expect Nyjer Morgan to be non-tendered. It was obvious, Haudricourt opined, that Morgan was being phased out and having made $2.3MM and eligible for arbitration again, he probably will be replaced by Logan Schafer, a less expensive option who is considered a better defender. Haudricourt did praise Morgan for conducting himself professionally and never popping off or openly complaining about his decrease in playing time.
  • Haudricourt listed some minor league prospects who took a big step this year and that fans should keep an eye on next season, including the aforementioned Morris. 

Outrighted To Triple-A: Dodgers, Brewers

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The latest outright assignments from around MLB…

  • The Brewers announced that they outrighted infielder Eric Farris and right-hander Cody Scarpetta to Triple-A Nashville. Farris appeared in 13 games for the Brewers this past year, but spent the majority of the season as a second baseman and utility player at Triple-A. Scarpetta, 24, posted a 3.85 ERA in 117 innings at Double-A Huntsville in 2011 but missed the 2012 season to undergo Tommy John surgery.
  • The Dodgers outrighted right-hander Blake Hawksworth and outfielder Matt Angle to Triple-A Albuquerque, Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times reports (on Twitter). Hawksworth didn't pitch at the MLB level in 2012 and underwent season-ending shoulder surgery in August. Angle, 27, spent the 2012 season at Triple-A, posting a .303/.376/.412 batting line in 447 plate appearances.

Quick Hits: Kinsler, Marcum, K-Rod, Rays

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For the first time since baseball expanded the playoff field to eight teams, all four divisional series have gone to a deciding fifth game.  The Nationals and Orioles forced Game Fives that will take place tomorrow, so we've got one more wild day of first-round baseball in store before the LCS round.  Here are some news items from around the league…

  • How the Rangers decide to use Ian Kinsler next season will impact the rest of their offseason moves, writes Richard Durrett of ESPN Dallas.  Durrett suggests that Kinsler should be dropped from the leadoff spot in the batting order and moved to the outfield to make room for Jurickson Profar at second base.
  • Shaun Marcum doesn't expect to pitch for the Brewers next season, the pending free agent told Todd Rosiak and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel last week.  Marcum said the Brewers "haven't said anything" to him about a contract extension.  "I think that ship sailed a long time ago," Marcum said.  "It's just one of those things. It's baseball, it's a business and we all understand that. You play to get to free agency, so we'll see what happens."
  • Also from Rosiak and Haudricourt, Francisco Rodriguez said he would "love to come back" to Milwaukee.  Rodriguez surprisingly accepted arbitration from the Brewers last season, earning himself $8MM in 2012.  The club obviously won't repeat the move again this year but Rodriguez could still return on a smaller deal if he can't find a closer's job elsewhere.
  • The Rays have asked the city of St. Petersburg for permission to explore potential stadium sites outside of the St. Pete area, reports Stephen Nohlgren of the Tampa Bay Times.  The Rays' lease at Tropicana Field runs through the 2027 season and St. Petersburg mayor Bill Foster "has been adamant" about keeping the team in his city for the duration of the lease, albeit possibly in a new ballpark.
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