AL East Notes: Orioles, Yankees
We'll kick off the first weekend of 2014 with a few quick AL East notes …
- The Orioles have had trade discussions with the Mets involving not only Ike Davis, but also Daniel Murphy and Lucas Duda, reports Educardo Encina of the Baltimore Sun. But, as we learned already with regard to Davis, the talks never gained much traction given the Mets' focus on picking up a top young arm from the Orioles' system.
- Baltimore's first priority is adding starting pitching, writes Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com, taking precedence over the search for a DH and the possibility of adding a reliever. The O's are not shopping at the top end of that market, however. Meanwhile, the club's interest in Kendrys Morales is "waning," Kubatko senses. When asked whether the Baltimore roster was good enough to challenge for the post-season as presently constructed, executive VP Dan Duquette walked cautiously: "I think we have more work to do to accomplish that, but we're making progress. We added a couple left-handed hitters and there are some opportunities to help our pitching staff."
- Looking forward, the Yankees have six deals on the books that are likely to prove a burden, opines Brendan Kuty of NJ.com. The list (with remaining guaranteed years and money): Alex Rodriguez (four years, $90MM), Mark Teixeira (three years, $69.375MM), Ichiro Suzuki (1 year, $6.5MM), C.C. Sabathia (three years, $71MM), Jacoby Ellsbury (7 years, $153MM), and Derek Jeter (1 year, $12MM). Of course, each of these contract situations carries different kinds of concerns. Three are somewhat unsurprisingly problematic back-ends of long-term deals, though there is still some hope that the Yanks will get some value out of the remainder of those contracts. Two appear to be fairly substantial short-term drains for an organization that hoped to get under the luxury tax threshhold, but otherwise will not impact finances past 2014. And one is a freshly-inked long-term contract that could become a problem in the future — much in the way the earlier Rodriguez, Teixeira, and Sabathia contracts have shaken out of late — but which was presumably necessary to lure a top-tier talent to the Bronx.
The Teams That Could Use Stephen Drew The Most
Agent Scott Boras has a quality starting shortstop on his hands in free agent Stephen Drew. Drew, 31 in March, bears the stigma of costing a draft pick to sign. But in 2013 for the Red Sox, he hit .253/.333/.443 in 501 plate appearances and was worth 3.4 wins above replacement according to FanGraphs. That tied for eighth-best in baseball among shortstops.
If you are a believer in projection systems, Drew will not be a top ten shortstop in 2014. Using an average of projected 2014 WAR from Steamer, Oliver, and where available, ZiPS (all from FanGraphs), Drew ranks 23rd among starting shortstops with 2.0. Starlin Castro and Jose Iglesias rank below Drew, but they are close enough that he wouldn't be a clear upgrade. We're left with six starting shortstops on whom Drew would be an upgrade, based on these projections: Jonathan Villar of the Astros, Derek Jeter of the Yankees, Ruben Tejada of the Mets, Pedro Florimon of the Twins, Alcides Escobar of the Royals, and Adeiny Hechavarria of the Marlins. Let's look at each situation individually.
- Astros: The Astros want to see what Villar, 23 in May, can do over the course of a full season. The Astros viewed the outfield as a place to potentially add a hitter, so they acquired Dexter Fowler in December. They also picked up first baseman/left fielder Jesus Guzman in another trade that month. For the Astros to displace Villar and give up the #33 pick in the draft, Drew would have to come at an extreme bargain. The Astros do not look like a fit, even if Drew would give them an extra win in 2014.
- Yankees: GM Brian Cashman told Peter Gammons in late December his team won't be signing Drew, which is a fairly rare comment on a specific free agent. Drew would only cost the #53 pick in the draft. But even if it makes some sense in a spreadsheet, adding him as insurance for Jeter could be controversial. Plus, the Yankees made a large commitment to Jeter and have more pressing needs right now.
- Mets: One rival GM thinks the Mets are feigning disinterest in Drew, according to Gammons, as he would be an upgrade on Tejada. Drew makes a ton of sense for the Mets, who would only have to surrender the #82 draft pick. The Mets are by far the best match for Drew.
- Twins: The Twins have spent $86.75MM on four free agents so far this winter, with 97% of that going toward pitching. Their draft pick cost would be #43, and I don't see why they wouldn't give Drew serious consideration. However, they seem set with Florimon.
- Royals: The Royals have spent big on free agents Omar Infante and Jason Vargas this winter, but don't seem interested in upgrading on Escobar even if they could afford Drew.
- Marlins: The Marlins have added four position players through free agency this winter, but they seem set with Hechavarria manning shortstop for years to come.
What about Drew's old team, the Red Sox? He may have less than 100 big league plate appearances to his name, but 21-year-old phenom Xander Bogaerts projects to be better than Drew in 2014. Re-signing Drew would mean not receiving a supplemental first round pick for losing him, so there is a cost in that regard. Drew makes sense if the Red Sox are wary of using Bogaerts and Will Middlebrooks as their starters on the left side of the infield, though.
It seems the Mets and Boras will continue to play chicken regarding Drew, but GM Sandy Alderson does have the upper hand in that no other suitor is emerging. It seems to be the right time for a Mystery Team to step in. One Hail Mary option for Boras could be to market Drew as a potential second or third baseman in 2014, for teams with entrenched shortstops. Once again, Boras is tasked with pulling a rabbit out of his hat on a free agent client.
AL East Links: Baldelli, Fuld, Yankees, Lackey
Rocco Baldelli was forced into premature retirement at age 29, but the former Rays outfielder has adjusted well to his post-playing career. As MLB.com's Bill Chastain relates, Baldelli is acting as something of a jack-of-all-trades as a special assistant in the Rays' baseball operations department, helping the club with everything from scouting to draft preparation to Spring Training work. "I get to see everything. I really enjoy gaining a perspective on everything we're doing. … It gives you a big picture view, and during the year I get the micro view of the organization," Baldelli said.
Here's some news from around the AL East…
- Sam Fuld is keeping the Rays in "the mix" as he decides his next contract, the outfielder tells Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times. "Would definitely be nice to be back if the opportunity is right," Fuld said, adding that he is "just waiting for the landscape to clear a bit." MLBTR's Zach Links reported last week that Fuld has been offered minor league deals from five teams, some of which have already been ruled out.
- The Yankees' plan to drastically overspend on the 2014-15 international free agent market is further explored by Scout.com's Kiley McDaniel, who explains why the Yankees are making this splash now and how they're exploiting this loophole in what McDaniel believes is a "broken" international spending system.
- There has been some speculation that the Red Sox could trade John Lackey, as the team is looking to move a veteran starter to make room for a younger arm. Trading Lackey would definitely be a sell-high move for Boston and they could command a strong return given Lackey's 2013 performance and his team-friendly contract, but MLB.com's Ian Browne doesn't "see any way the Red Sox will look to trade Lackey." That same team-friendly deal is also a boon to the Sox, Browne notes, and "barring a stunning development," Lackey will be on the Opening Day roster.
- In AL East news from earlier today on MLB Trade Rumors, Blue Jays manager John Gibbons' option for 2015 was guaranteed since he was still employed at the start of the calendar year, the Rays claimed southpaw Pedro Figueroa off waivers from the A's, and we shared a collection of Orioles notes.
Gammons On Gardner, Denorfia, Drew
Here are some hot stove items from Peter Gammons in his latest piece for his namesake website, GammonsDaily.com…
- Gammons adds the Phillies to the list of teams who "have taken a run" at acquiring Brett Gardner from the Yankees. Philadelphia is one of "at least a half-dozen teams" who have checked in on Gardner — we've seen the Tigers, Reds, Indians, and Giants also linked to Gardner earlier in the offseason. Both Yankees president Randy Levine and GM Brian Cashman have said they admire Gardner's play and aren't willing to move him, though Gammons feels that Cashman "won’t move [Gardner] until and unless [Cashman] has to for starting pitching." This is just my speculation, but Gammons' phrasing could be a hint that the Yankees could shop Gardner if they fail to land Masahiro Tanaka.
- The Rangers, Red Sox and Rockies are three of "at least a half-dozen teams" who have asked the Padres about Chris Denorfia. Colorado's interest has presumably dried up due to their acquisition of Drew Stubbs. San Diego GM Josh Byrnes isn't willing to discuss trading Denorfia as long as he feels the Padres can be contenders, and Byrnes thinks his club's offseason moves could put them in the playoff mix. The Rangers also showed interest in Denorfia last July before the trade deadline.
- Mets assistant GM J.P. Ricciardi recently claimed that his team was happy with Ruben Tejada as a starting shortstop and that the free agent shortstop market wasn't to the Mets' liking, but Gammons hears otherwise from an NL general manager. The GM believes the Mets are concerned about their inexperience up the middle (Tejada at short, Juan Lagares in center and Travis d'Arnaud behind the plate) and are only seeming disinterested in Stephen Drew as part of negotiations with agent Scott Boras.
- If Drew re-signs with the Red Sox, Gammons doesn't expect Boston to deal Will Middlebrooks, as the team still values his power.
- The offseason's most interesting overlooked deal is the Athletics/Rangers swap that sent Craig Gentry to Oakland and Michael Choice to Texas, Gammons opines. Gentry is a right-handed bat who can spell Coco Crisp in center or replace him in case of injury, and "the A’s think Gentry’s comp is at least Peter Bourjos," Gammons writes. Choice, meanwhile, gives the Rangers a corner outfield bat who can spell Shin-Soo Choo against left-handed pitching.
Olney On Selig, MLBPA, Key Contract Situations
In Buster Olney's New Year's Day column (Insider link), the ESPN senior writer covered his ten top MLB storylines for the coming year. While I recommend a full read of the piece, here are a few of Olney's notes that are of particular interest from a transactional perspective:
- Both MLB and the MLBPA face leadership questions owing to the announced retirement of commissioner Bud Selig and the untimely death of union chief Michael Weiner. Olney says that he has heard three possible scenarios regarding the commissioner's chair: first, that Selig could be enticed to stay on; second, that COO Rob Manfred will be the hand-picked successor; and third, that a new leader has yet to be chosen (and could be the subject of disagreement due to increasing unrest from middle- and small-market clubs). On the union side, Olney says that much remains unknown about how the leadership transition to Tony Clark will impact the organization's power structure and approach.
- Yankees GM Brian Cashman is only under contract through the 2014 season, and Olney hints that his fate could be tied to the club's transition as it faces a "crossroad season" with aging star Derek Jeter. Across the country, a veritable "cold war" between the Dodgers and manager Don Mattingly will also be worth close attention, says Olney.
- Meanwhile, several front offices are dealing with financial pressures and high expectations that could result in major changes if things don't break right. Olney lists the Phillies, Royals, Diamondbacks, Orioles, and Blue Jays as clubs that are facing high-stakes seasons.
- Several key contract situations are reaching points of decision around the game. Clayton Kershaw and Hanley Ramirez of the Dodgers have been the subject of extension rumors. The Rays still have to decide how to proceed with ace David Price. And extension speculation is set to ramp up for the Tigers, who have cleared future payroll space but will soon need to chart a path on two of their best players in Max Scherzer and Miguel Cabrera. Finally, says Olney, Braves closer Craig Kimbrel is set to reach new heights in arbitration salary — indeed, his unique statline has already busted MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz's arbitration model — that could force Atlanta to consider a trade.
Yankees Will Not Sign Stephen Drew
Yankees GM Brian Cashman says that the club will not sign Stephen Drew, reports Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com (via Twitter). After missing out on Omar Infante, New York had been rumored to be considering a run at the free agent infielder.
As MLBTR's Charlie Wilmoth recently explained, Drew is far and away the most attractive middle infielder left on the open market. For New York, then, choosing to pass on his services means that the club will not further supplement its infield mix through a significant free agent signing. A trade may still be possible, but having re-signed Derek Jeter and Brendan Ryan while adding Brian Roberts and Kelly Johnson, the Yanks have already been quite active in adding players who can man short, second, or third.
If the Yankees are indeed out on Drew, relatively dry demand figures to remain the major impediment to a substantial, multi-year deal for the 30-year-old. Last we heard, Drew was still in discussions with the Mets. And, of course, Drew could still fit in Boston. But as Gammons notes, it will be "delicate" for the Red Sox to bring him back on a pillow contract after he turned down the club's qualifying offer.
Quick Hits: Angels, Cardinals, Yankees, O’Flaherty
Playing winter ball in Venezuela can help North American ballplayers make ends meet, and Joshua Goodman of the Associated Press provides a fascinating look into what their lives are like as they deal with the wildly different stadium atmosphere there, not to mention the different political atmosphere. Players often make $10K to $20K a month in Venezuela, far more than most of them do in the US minor leagues or in independent ball. They play for large, raucous crowds, unlike some of those in the minors. "I've never played in the big leagues, but I don't think the environment is nearly as fun" as it is in Venezuela, says Jamie Romak, a 28-year-old minor-league veteran who played in the Cardinals system last year and is now playing for La Guaira. Here are more notes from around baseball.
- Masahiro Tanaka's free agent contract will have much to say about the way we value prospects, writes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. The market might value Tanaka at something like $120MM to $150MM, even though he is generally considered to be a lesser talent than Yu Darvish was before his debut, and Darvish ranked behind several prospects (like Matt Moore and Shelby Miller) on some analysts' lists at the time. So if Tanaka is worth $120MM, how much is Taijuan Walker worth? How much, for that matter, is Xander Bogaerts worth? Estimates might end up somewhere north of $100MM, even though those players haven't yet proven themselves in the big leagues. That's why, Cameron argues, the Royals should not have included Wil Myers in the James Shields trade last year.
- The Angels haven't been known for their farm system in recent years, but MLB.com's Jim Callis writes that their 2009 draft was the best one of the past decade. The Angels had five selections in the first 48 picks, and with the second of those, they landed Mike Trout, currently baseball's best all-around player. They also grabbed Patrick Corbin and Tyler Skaggs (who both went to Arizona in the Dan Haren deal, although Skaggs returned earlier this month as Mark Trumbo went to the desert), outfielder Randal Grichuk (who was part of the David Freese trade) and Garrett Richards.
- Meanwhile, Callis' colleague at MLB.com, Jonathan Mayo, argues that the Cardinals' 2009 draft was actually the best. That draft produced Matt Carpenter, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Matt Adams and Joe Kelly.
- Even if they sign Tanaka, the Yankees might be able to get below the $189MM luxury-tax threshold for 2014 if they trade high-priced players during the season, Joel Sherman of the New York Post points out. Even that would be tricky, however. Alex Rodriguez would still have to miss a hefty chunk of the season due to his suspension (however his appeal turns out), and the Yankees would have to trade a number of expensive players. Sherman suggests that the Yankees may have missed a better opportunity to try something like this — with much of their core injured in 2013, they could have dealt free-agents-to-be like Robinson Cano, Curtis Granderson, Hiroki Kuroda and Phil Hughes to get under last year's threshold. Such a move would have reduced their tax burden and allowed them to spend even more heavily this offseason. It would have been unlikely if the Yankees had waved the white flag on 2013, however, because they don't typically behave that way.
- The Braves are still in talks with reliever Eric O'Flaherty, David O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution tweets. O'Flaherty had Tommy John surgery last May and will likely miss the beginning of the season. He's one of only a handful of lefty relievers remaining on the free agent market, along with Oliver Perez, Mike Gonzalez, Jose Mijares and Rich Hill.
Quick Hits: A-Rod, McGuiness, Tanaka, Twins, Jays
Brendan Kuty of the Star-Ledger looks at how much money the Yankees can save based on the outcome of Alex Rodriguez's case. If his full 211 game suspension is upheld, the Yankees would be off of the hook for his $25MM salary in 2014 and roughly $6.8MM in 2015, good for a total of $31.8MM saved over the next two years. Meanwhile, if A-Rod manages to win his appeal, he could recoup those funds and potentially more thanks to the incentives he can get for passing Willie Mays (660), Babe Ruth (714), Hank Aaron (755), and Barry Bonds (762) on the all-time home run list. He's in line to get $6MM for each separate milestone. Here are more notes from around the Majors.
- The Pirates acquired first baseman Chris McGuiness from the Rangers because they were seeking a left-handed first bat to platoon with Gaby Sanchez and have a surplus of bullpen arms, tweets Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Pittsburgh shipped reliever Miles Mikolas to Texas in the deal, whom they acquired in late November from San Diego. It's possible the Pirates will use McGuiness more as a depth option than as their starter at first base against righties, however.
- Masahiro Tanaka will be more like Rangers standout Yu Darvish than big league bust Daisuke Matsuzaka, opines Gregg Doyel of CBSSports.com.
- The Twins and Blue Jays took different paths towards fixing their rotations this offseason, writes Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet. Since the season ended, Twins GM Terry Ryan has signed Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, and Mike Pelfrey with a series of moves that cost $84MM. Anthopoulos, meanwhile, hasn't signed any starters, opting instead to explore trades and bide his time on select free agents.
Yankees Plan To Incur 2014-15 Int’l Spending Penalties
The Yankees plan to spend $12MM-$15MM on the 2014-15 international amateur free agent market, incurring $10MM-$12MM in penalties, Kiley McDaniel of Scout.com reports. That $12MM-$15MM figure would not include potential spending for Masahiro Tanaka, who is not subject to international bonus pools that govern spending for most Latin American amateurs.
2014-2015 international bonus pools have not yet been set, but the Yankees' figures to be about $2MM to $2.5MM, according to McDaniel. The Yankees would have to pay a 100 percent tax on any spending past 10 percent higher than their bonus pool. If they go more than 15 percent above their bonus pool, they would also lose their ability to sign any international amateur for more than $300K in the 2015-16 or 2016-17 signing seasons. Greatly exceeding their bonus pool could also cause the Yankees to lose top picks in an international draft, if MLB decides to institute one. Obviously, by spending $12MM-$15MM, the Yankees would blow way past those penalties, incurring around $10MM in taxes and spending a total somewhere near $25MM.
In 2013, the Cubs spent heavily on international prospects Eloy Jimenez, Gleyber Torres, Erling Moreno, Jen-Ho Tseng, Jefferson Mejia, and Johan Matos. That gave the Cubs the two top international prospects on the market (Jimenez and Torres), plus two more in the top 30 (Moreno and Tseng). That spending cost the Cubs $7.895MM. It appears the Yankees plan to spend far more, which would potentially allow them to dominate the international market, unless other teams ignore their bonus pools as well.
For the Yankees, one positive in making their plan public, as McDaniel points out, is that agents will not assume the Yankees are making offers in bad faith. McDaniel reports that an executive from a team that has exceeded its bonus pool in the past said the team had trouble getting agents to believe its offers were sincere. The Yankees should not have that problem if agents believe the Yanks are willing to exceed their bonus pool.
Tanaka & Yankees Notes: Workload, A-Rod
Masahiro Tanaka's workload is a serious concern, Yahoo! Sports' Jeff Passan writes. In the past five seasons, while pitching mostly in his early 20s, Tanaka has averaged more than 113 pitches per start, more than any pitcher in the U.S. big leagues during that period. MLB executives adore Tanaka's stuff (and, presumably, the results he's gotten in Japan), however, so they ignore warning signs about his pitch count. Those pitch counts don't mean it's certain that Tanaka will fall apart once he signs a big contract, of course — Passan points out that Yu Darvish also had an intense workload in Japan, and he's done just fine in the states. Here's more on Tanaka and the Yankees.
- The Yankees' offseason has been characterized by a need to wait for Alex Rodriguez and for Tanaka, writes NJ.com's Brendan Kuty. A decision on the status of Rodriguez's appeal could soon arrive, and once the Yankees know, they'll have a much clearer idea of their 2014 budget. That, in turn, will help clarify their pursuit of Tanaka.
- If the Yankees sign Tanaka, they'll go past the $189MM luxury-tax threshold regardless of what happens with Rodriguez, FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal writes. In the previous two offseasons, the Yankees "operated as if they were in luxury-tax jail," passing even on the relatively inexpensive Russell Martin and avoiding big-ticket players like Zack Greinke and Josh Hamilton. Now, after missing the playoffs with an injury-riddled roster in 2013, the Yankees appear prepared to exceed the $189MM threshold. They need Tanaka "desperately," given their current rotation.
- MLB teams' pursuit of Tanaka will be "insane," writes FanGraphs' Tony Blengino. Not only is Tanaka an excellent pitcher, he's only 25, which means he could be a better investment than most free agents, who are older. Also, unlike other Japanese talents, he's essentially a free agent. He doesn't have to deal with the posting system from previous years, in which Japanese teams, rather the players, reaped the benefits of the free market. Finally, teams have plenty of money to spend.