This is the latest entry in MLBTR’s Offseason In Review series. The full index of Offseason In Review posts can be found here.
The Pirates’ offseason didn’t feature the kinds of decisive signings or trades that might convince fans the Bucs are ready to follow up on their terrific 98-win 2015 season, but that’s par for the course for an organization whose recent successes have been built more on sly under-the-radar moves than on heavy spending.
Major League Signings
- 1B John Jaso: two years, $8MM
- P Neftali Feliz: one year, $3.9MM
- P Juan Nicasio: one year, $3MM
- IF David Freese: one year, $3MM
- UT Sean Rodriguez: one year, $2.5MM
- P Ryan Vogelsong: one year, $2MM
- P Trey Haley: Major League contract
- 1B/OF Jake Goebbert: Major League contract
Notable Minor League Signings
Trades And Claims
- Acquired P Jon Niese from Mets for 2B Neil Walker
- Acquired P David Whitehead from Phillies for P Charlie Morton
- Acquired IF Jason Rogers from Brewers for OF Keon Broxton and P Trey Supak
- Acquired P Trevor Williams from Marlins for P Richard Mitchell
- Acquired P Kyle Lobstein from Tigers for cash
Extensions
- Chris Stewart, C: two years, $3MM (plus 2018 option)
Notable Losses
- Walker, Morton, A.J. Burnett (retired), J.A. Happ, Pedro Alvarez, Antonio Bastardo, Joakim Soria, Joe Blanton, Aramis Ramirez (retired) Vance Worley, Travis Snider
Needs Addressed
Critiquing a Pirates offseason is intimidating, because you feel like the team is daring you to admit you don’t really know what you’re talking about. Many commentators greeted recent past Pirates offseasons with ambivalence or even derision for being built around seemingly off-brand additions of players like A.J. Burnett, Russell Martin, Francisco Liriano, Mark Melancon and Francisco Cervelli … who then turned out to be core members of excellent teams. Whoops.
So what to make of the Pirates’ past winter, which featured the departures of key players like Burnett, Neil Walker and J.A. Happ and additions of a slew of low-cost replacements like Ryan Vogelsong, Juan Nicasio and John Jaso? Your guess is as good as mine. On the surface, it doesn’t look like the Pirates did nearly enough. But then, that’s how previous offseasons have looked too, and the last several have mostly turned out brilliantly.
The 2016 Bucs will have a new-look infield, with Pedro Alvarez and Walker departing to make room for Jaso and Josh Harrison (who will take over for Walker at second). Alvarez hit 27 home runs in 2015, but the Pirates non-tendered him anyway, a move that was entirely justified — Alvarez struck out frequently and hit for low batting averages, and his defense was inexplicably awful after moving across the diamond to first base. He was unlikely to produce enough value to earn the $8.1MM he was set to make in arbitration, so he had no trade value, and it’s not surprising the Bucs opted to let him depart.
To replace him, they signed Jaso to a cheap two-year deal. Like Alvarez last year, Jaso will be new to first base, but most players’ efforts to move to first from another position go better than Alvarez’s did. Also, as FanGraphs’ Jeff Sullivan has pointed out, catchers have generally fared well in transitioning to first base — think of Scott Hatteberg, Jason Phillips or Joe Mauer. Jaso doesn’t have nearly the power Alvarez did, but he does have a career .361 on-base percentage that should play well at first, particularly at just $4MM per season. Jaso, a left-handed hitter, needs to be platooned, but the Pirates already had righty first baseman Michael Morse under contract and top prospect Josh Bell in the minors, and their acquisitions of David Freese and Jason Rogers this offseason give them plenty more righty first base depth should Morse falter.
The Bucs then sent Walker to the Mets for Jon Niese. At first glance, this move makes less sense than the Alvarez/Jaso swap did. Walker, unlike Alvarez, is a genuinely good player, a consistent hitter with a broad offensive skill set who will generally produce two to three wins per season. (As a Pittsburgh native, he was a fan favorite to boot.) Niese, meanwhile, is a competent but uninspiring lefty whose strikeout rate dropped to 5.8 batters per nine innings last season. Walker and Niese also have similar salaries, so the Pirates didn’t even really save money in the deal.
Walker, though, was a below-average defender, and was only one year from free agency. Niese, meanwhile, gets ground balls — a skill the Pirates love — and has two options at the end of his contract, potentially allowing the Bucs to keep him for two more years than they could have kept Walker. The Pirates’ acquisitions of starting pitchers have generally gone quite well in recent years, so if pitching coach Ray Searage and company are able to rejuvenate Niese, the Bucs will be able to keep him through 2018 — but also aren’t required to guarantee those seasons if it doesn’t work out.
The long-term plan in Walker’s absence is to use Harrison (who played five positions in 2015) as their regular second baseman and Jung-Ho Kang at third. That plan set them up well defensively, but reduced their depth and wouldn’t work in April, when Kang figured to be battling back from a knee injury he suffered late last season. And so, in a late-breaking move, the Bucs signed Freese to a cheap contract. He’ll man third base until Kang returns, and will likely occupy a variety of roles after that, perhaps eventually displacing Morse as Jaso’s platoon partner. Freese, who’s been an average or better player in five of the last six seasons, was a bargain at $3MM.
The same can’t necessarily be said of some of the Pirates’ other cheap contracts. Sean Rodriguez can, at least theoretically, play seven different positions, but he hits so poorly that his versatility is of limited use. It would have been easy to imagine him signing a minor-league deal this offseason, rather than a $2.5MM Major League contract. Perhaps Rodriguez has value in the clubhouse that isn’t easy for outsiders to see.
Ryan Vogelsong, too, was a questionable use of funds, even though he’ll only make $2MM this season. Vogelsong is 38, has been replacement-level or below in two of the last three seasons, and was demoted to the bullpen last year. He’s in competition for one of the Pirates’ last two rotation jobs, and perhaps with some attention from Searage, he can improve upon his 4.67 ERA last season. Given his age and recent history, however, his upside appears limited.
The Bucs also signed Neftali Feliz for $3.9MM, which seems like a lot to pay a reliever who flamed out badly last season, has persistent control issues and hasn’t had an unambiguously good season (with both good results and good peripherals) since 2010. Feliz is just 27, though, and has good velocity working for him (although he doesn’t throw quite as hard as he did in his first few seasons with the Rangers). He’s also done well in Spring Training thus far, so perhaps he can be a Pirates reclamation project.
A more interesting cheap pitching deal was that of Juan Nicasio (pictured), who has a good fastball and slider (although not much of a changeup) and whiffed 10.0 batters per nine innings in the Dodgers’ bullpen last year. Given his stuff, age (29), service time (4.084 years, allowing the Pirates to control him for 2017 if they like) and ability to start, $3MM for Nicasio seemed like a reasonable gamble, and there are already signs it could pay off, with Nicasio whiffing 24 batters in 15 shutout innings so far in Spring Training. He’s still in competition for a job in the back of the rotation.
The Pirates also made a number of even less costly depth acquisitions. They got starting pitching prospect Trevor Williams in a lopsided, but minor, deal with the Marlins compensating the Bucs for the Marlins’ hires of Pirates executives Jim Benedict and Marc DelPiano. (In particular, the loss of Benedict, who was widely credited with helping many of the Bucs’ pitchers, could potentially be significant for the organization.) A reliever, Trey Haley, arrived from the Indians on a big-league deal but is likely to begin the season in the minors, where he’ll hone his mid-90s fastball, with the Pirates hoping he can improve his control enough to eventually contribute. There’s still some hope that Cory Luebke (who was signed to a minor league deal) can regain his former promise after a long battle with injuries. And fellow lefty Kyle Lobstein, acquired in a minor trade after the Tigers designated him for assignment, could serve as rotation depth or as a lefty out of the bullpen.
More analysis after the break …