Free Agent Stock Watch: Cliff Lee
It's not often that a bonafide ace hits the free agent market, but when one does it often leads to a feeding frenzy of big market clubs and mystery teams. Current Rangers ace and former Cy Young Award winner Cliff Lee is arguably the best pitcher in baseball, and in a few weeks he will be able to offer his services to the highest bidder on the open market for the first time in his career.
Lee's credentials are undeniable, but teams must still weigh the good against the bad when preparing to offer anyone a contract of this magnitude. Let's break it down…
The Good
- Lee is a proven workhorse, logging 667.1 innings over the last three seasons. He's thrown at least 200 innings in five of the last six years and made at least 28 starts in six of the last seven years.
- If you're a believer in WAR, Lee's +20.8 mark since 2008 is second only to Roy Halladay's +21.5 among all pitchers.
- He's proven himself in the American League, so there won't be any adjustment period as far as that is concerned.
- Lee's command is off-the-charts, evidenced by a 0.8 BB/9 this season. He also set a new single season record with a 10.28 K/BB ratio (min. 150 innings).
- Although he mixes in a curveball, Lee is primarily a fastball-cutter-changeup pitcher without huge velocity. As Andy Pettitte and Jamie Moyer have shown, lefthanders with that arsenal can pitch forever as long as they have their health.
The Bad
- Lee is on the wrong side of 30, having turned 32 just over a month ago.
- He battled some back issues last month, and has a history of oblique trouble dating back to 2003. His arm has been relatively free of injury, however.
- As a Type-A free agent certain to be offered arbitration, any team except Texas will have to forfeit a high draft to sign him.
- The Yankees have long had interest in Lee (they almost acquired him this summer), and if they get involved in the bidding it would make life very difficult for everyone else.
The Verdict
Despite the back issues, Lee is certain to become one of the two or three highest paid pitchers in baseball in the coming months. Every team would love to be able to add him to their staff, but it's only economically feasible for a handful. The Yankees have a leg up on everyone else not just because they can offer the most money, but also because Lee is close with CC Sabathia from their Cleveland days.
That said, the Rangers just signed a lucrative television deal that enables them to make a competitive offer, and we'd be foolish to rule out traditional big spenders like the Mets, Red Sox, Angels, and Tigers (regardless of what they've said). Even the Orioles and Nationals have shown a willingness to go big game hunting on the free agent market recently, so don't be surprised if they get involved as well.
Lee might not be able to secure a seven-year, $161MM deal like Sabathia since he's three years older than CC was when he hit the market, but $20MM annually for five years seems like nothing more than a starting point.
Tigers Will Not Pursue Cliff Lee Or Other Top Starters
The Tigers will not pursue free agent-to-be Cliff Lee or another top tier free agent starter this offseason, tweets MLB.com's Jason Beck. That does not mean they will only go after back-of-the-rotation starters, however.
Detroit already boasts a frontline starter in Justin Verlander, and Max Scherzer has been outstanding (153.2 IP, 2.46 ERA, 9.25 K/9) after a brief demotion to the minors in May. Those two and Rick Porcello are the only guys guaranteed spots in the Tigers rotation next year, but reliever Phil Coke will reportedly transition to starting according to John Lowe of The Detroit Free Press. Other internal option include Armando Galarraga and Andy Oliver.
The free agent market offers plenty of help beyond Lee, with quality second tier options like Hiroki Kuroda, Jorge de la Rosa, and Ted Lilly. Aaron Harang, Jon Garland, and Bronson Arroyo might also be available depending on whether or not their options are exercised.
Odds & Ends: Blue Jays, Orioles, Nationals, Darvish
Friday night links, as Jered Weaver takes over the AL strikeout lead in Texas….
- The Blue Jays received permission to interview Ron Roenicke, the Angels' bench coach, for their managerial opening, reports Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times.
- Buck Showalter says that potential free agents from other clubs have expressed interest in coming to Baltimore, tweets MLB.com's Brittany Ghiroli.
- Jim Riggleman tells MASN's Ben Goessling that he's comfortable with the Nationals' starting pitching even if the club doesn't land a top starter this winter.
- Adam Kilgore of the Washington Post wonders if the Nationals could target Yu Darvish as that potential impact arm. There's no guarantee Darvish will be available this offseason, but the Nats have scouted the Japanese righty in person "at least nine times."
- The Rangers should sign Jon Daniels to a contract extension, according to Jean-Jacques Taylor of the Dallas Morning News.
- Bobby Jenks tells Dave van Dyck of the Chicago Tribune that he's anticipating a "weird offseason" in Chicago.
- Jim Leyland knows that if the Tigers don't have a good year in 2011, he could be done in Detroit, as John Lowe of the Detroit Free Press writes.
Odds & Ends: Darvish, Feliciano, D’Backs, Blue Jays
As the Padres face a big uphill battle in San Francisco this weekend, we look at some news items….
- Yu Darvish's likely posting fee could be around $25MM and the right-hander might look for a five-year deal from an MLB club, suggest sources of Matt Cerrone of Metsblog.com. The Mets, Yankees, Rangers and Braves are listed as four of the eight teams who have shown an interest in Darvish, and we know the Rays have watched him pitch as well.
- Pedro Feliciano's struggles against right-handed hitters will prevent the reliever from earning a big contract this winter, writes David Brown of Yahoo Sports. The fact that Feliciano is a Type A free agent will also hurt his cause, since teams will shy away from losing a draft pick to sign a limited relief pitcher.
- Rafael Soriano, Cody Ross, David DeJesus and Francisco Rodriguez are among several free agents or trade candidates that Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic thinks the D'Backs might consider acquiring.
- Bob Gebhard, the Diamondbacks' vice-president and special assistant to the GM, will survive the expected front office changes in Arizona this winter, tweets Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
- Nightengale also tweets that Tim Wallach is "picking up plenty of steam" in regards to the Toronto manager's job. The Rockies have granted hitting coach Don Baylor permission to interview for that same position, reports Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
- The Everett Daily Herald's Kirby Arnold lists several Mariners who might not be with the team next season, including Jose Lopez, David Aardsma and Casey Kotchman.
- Dodgers assistant GM Logan White told Baseball America's Jim Callis that he hasn't been fired by L.A., and is "working for the team until…told otherwise" (both Twitter links). Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus tweeted about "rumors starting to swirl" that White and the Dodgers were parting ways earlier in the day. White was one of several candidates interviewed for the Arizona general manager's job that eventually went to Kevin Towers.
- The Washington Post's Adam Kilgore lists five possible replacements for Adam Dunn if the Nationals don't re-sign the slugger.
- In a chat with fans on Thursday, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News predicted that the Rangers would announce contract extensions for manager Ron Washington and GM Jon Daniels within a week of Texas' final playoff game.
- Trevor Hoffman hasn't decided if he will play next year yet, but if he does, MLB.com's Adam McCalvy predicts Hoffman will look for "a situation in which he at least has a chance to be the closer."
Olney On Crawford, Rangers, D’Backs
Home field advantage in the Division Series and League Championship Series hasn't given teams the advantage you might expect, as ESPN.com's Buster Olney shows. But the Rays, Yankees and Twins presumably want home field advantage anyways and there's no question that the teams' respective owners would like the extra revenue. Here are the rest of Olney's rumors:
- Some MLB executives expect the Red Sox and Angels to get into a bidding war over Carl Crawford this offseason. He’d be a good fit on either team, though Mike Cameron would likely become a bench player if the Red Sox signed Crawford or Jayson Werth.
- High-ranking executives wouldn’t be surprised to see the Rangers’ payroll rise to $90-100MM. The team opened the 2010 season with a $65MM payroll, so that would be a substantial increase.
- There seems to be a very good chance that Adam LaRoche and Mark Reynolds, who have combined to strike out 375 times this season, will not be on the D’Backs in 2011. LaRoche will probably hit free agency this winter, but Reynolds has $13MM remaining on his contract and would have to be traded.
Arbitration Eligibles: Texas Rangers
Let's round out the American League side of our arbitration eligibles series with a look at the Rangers.
- First time: Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Darren O'Day
- Second time: Josh Hamilton, Mark Lowe, Dustin Nippert, Esteban German
- Third time: Jeff Francoeur, C.J. Wilson, Brandon McCarthy
Locks to be tendered contracts: Cruz, Murphy, O'Day, Hamilton, Lowe, and Wilson. There will be sizeable raises in this bunch. Cruz has 55 home runs over the last two seasons, Hamilton had an MVP season, O'Day has been quietly dominant, and Wilson and Murphy are also coming off their best years. Lowe had back surgery in June and might not pitch for the Rangers this year, but they acquired him with that knowledge and clearly want him for 2011.
Nippert has slipped since last year, but the raise he gets on this year's $665K could be small. McCarthy tossed 56.3 minor league innings this year, dealing with shoulder issues. He's a non-tender candidate given his $1.3MM salary. Likewise for Jeff Francoeur at $5MM, even with 42 stellar Rangers plate appearances added to his resume. German, a role player, will probably be cut.
Odds & Ends: Pirates, Marlins, Rangers
Six years ago today, the Rockies signed righty Jhoulys Chacin as an amateur free agent out of Venezuela. This year as a rookie, Chacin has a 3.26 ERA in 132.3 innings. Links for Monday…
- Pirates GM Neal Huntington indicated a preference to sign a free agent pitcher to a multiyear deal, in comments made to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
- The Marlins are considering a slight payroll bump for 2011 to the $48-50MM range, reports MLB.com's Joe Frisaro.
- The Rangers signed a 20-year extension with Fox Sports Southwest worth $3 billion, according to USA Today's Bob Nightengale.
- The Brewers' trade return on a one-year rental of Prince Fielder may be disappointing, suggests Dave Cameron of FanGraphs. In a U.S.S. Mariner post, Cameron explains why he doesn't find Fielder a good fit in Seattle.
Odds & Ends: Loux, Uribe, Dipoto, Cubs, Phillies
Links for Thursday night, following Juan Uribe's two-homer, six-RBI inning….
- Barret Loux had a second throwing session for scouts today, according to Brian McTaggart and Jeff Seidel of MLB.com. The Astros, Marlins, Rangers, Cubs, Twins, Giants, Brewers, Phillies and Mariners watched the free agent first-round pick throw between 50 and 60 pitches.
- Uribe's 2010 performance should give him a handful of options in free agency this winter, tweets ESPN.com's Buster Olney.
- Newsday's Ken Davidoff isn't sure that Jerry Dipoto is the right person for the Mets' GM job, even if Dipoto were available.
- Jim Hendry tells Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune that Greg Maddux will remain in the Cubs' organization next year. Upon being hired as Arizona's GM, Kevin Towers suggested that he'd like to put Maddux on the Diamondbacks' payroll. The four-time Cy Young winner is flattered by the interest, writes Bob Nightengale of USA Today.
- Hendry also conducted his second official interview in his search for the Cubs' next manager, according to Carrie Muskat of MLB.com. Ryne Sandberg is the latest candidate to interview with Hendry, after Eric Wedge did so last month.
- MLB.com's Todd Zolecki breaks down some of the key roster moves that have led to the Phillies' NL-best record this year.
Free Agent Stock Watch: Jorge Cantu
When the Marlins traded Jorge Cantu to the Rangers before this year's July 31st deadline, it was a prime opportunity for Cantu to turn his season around. Playing for a postseason contender in a hitter-friendly park, the 28-year-old was in a good position to improve his stock with a productive stretch run. It's still possible that Cantu will come up with some timely hits in the playoffs for the Rangers, but so far, his time in Texas has been a major disappointment. In 75 plate appearances, Cantu has hit .206/.270/.265 and has yet to drive in a run.
Prior to the season, Cantu was coming off a two-year stretch in Florida in which he hit .283/.336/.462, averaged over 20 homers per season, and logged playing time at both corner infield positions. His performance earned him a $6MM contract for his final year of arbitration eligibility, but his discouraging 2010 campaign doesn't bode well for his impending free agency.
When teams consider Cantu this winter, one thing working in his favor is his history. This isn't the first time the infielder has had a letdown year following a successful one – in 2006, on the heels of a .286/.311/.497, 28-homer season for the Rays, Cantu hit just .249/.295/.404. His drop-off in OPS that season (.808 to .699) looks awfully similar to his decline from 2009 to 2010 (.788 to .691). Cantu rebounded nicely after signing with the Marlins, and he's still young enough that he could do so again.
Even if a club takes a chance on Cantu's ability to bounce back though, it's hard to imagine him landing more than a short-term deal. The first base market is flush with alternatives, and Cantu has never been a strong defensive third baseman, according to UZR. Cantu's best option may be signing an affordable one-year deal in the hopes that he can rebuild his value and ink a long-term contract next winter, entering his age-30 season.
Poll: Extending Josh Hamilton
When he’s on the field, Josh Hamilton is one of the best players in the game. Hamilton’s five-tool ability has translated into results for a few seasons now and at 29 he leads the American League in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
But Hamilton, who had completed just one full season in the major leagues before this year, has not played since bruising his ribs in early September. Injuries have prevented Hamilton from playing more regularly throughout his career, so questions about his ability to stay on the field would no doubt contribute to the Rangers’ willingness to guarantee tens of millions of dollars. At this point, Rangers GM Jon Daniels tells Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News that he isn’t worried about extending Hamilton.
"Our only focus as it relates to Josh right now is getting him healthy and back in the lineup," Daniels said. "The contractual stuff will take care of itself."
The Rangers have Hamilton under team control for two seasons after this so they don’t face the same urgency that the Cardinals do with their franchise player. Hamilton won’t cost nearly as much as Albert Pujols, but he’s in a position to demand more than $40MM over four years, no small amount of money. It’s a good problem to have – how would you address it if you were in Daniels’ position?
Would you offer Josh Hamilton a long-term extension?
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