Nationals Rumors

While quiet Nationals star Anthony Rendon elected not to participate in this year’s All-Star festivities — somehow the first time he has been selected — his less-than-taciturn agent was on hand and willing to discuss Rendon’s contract situation. As Todd Dybas of NBC Sports reports, Scott Boras certainly did not sound like a man who was close to wrapping up a contract for his client.

Engagement between the Nats and Rendon/Boras has seemingly been sporadic. There was an apparent uptick in activity recently, with Boras present in D.C. and reports indicating that the sides were negotiating in earnest. But the super-agent doused that flame, explaining: “I go to a lot of ballparks. It doesn’t mean we’re investing into anything that’s relevant to contract terms.”

Boras was content to press the obvious leverage he has gained over recent months. The mammoth Nolan Arenado extension removed a major market competitor and set a big price for top third-base talent before the season, with the surprisingly light Xander Bogaerts contract providing only a meager counterweight in terms of precedent. Rendon has since ramped up his already sterling resume to the point that Boras now has trouble embellishing. (Not that he wasn’t willing to dabble, labeling Rendon a “superstar” and at least hinting at a partial comparison to the peerless Mike Trout.)

A few choice quotes hint at Boras’s stance vis-a-vis a Nationals organization he has dealt with frequently:

• “I think [Rendon’s] focused on the season.”
• “I don’t know what their diagnostics are, but we’ll see as we approach the offseason.”
• “It’s really in their corner as to how we go from there.”
• “Ted and the Lerner family, and the organization, we’ve always worked out things — usually.” (an under-the-radar, instant Boras classic)

The takeaway is clear, if already obvious to the familiar Nats: Rendon’s camp is in the driver’s seat and in no rush to make a deal. Convincing him to forego a run at a market that’ll be mostly devoid of other top talent will take a major payday — one that the team may ultimately be willing to post. If there’s an ace in the hole for D.C., beyond its familiarity to Rendon, it may simply be that it’s the only place the reserved 29-year-old can line up his future without an attention-grabbing foray into free agency.

It’s rather uncommon to see significant, mid-season extensions. And it emerged recently that the Nationals have not made recent headway in their efforts to strike a deal with star third baseman Anthony Rendon. But that doesn’t mean Nationals president of baseball operations/GM Mike Rizzo is giving up hope of a deal that keeps the key veteran with the organization and off of the open market.

In an appearance on The Racing Presidents podcast, Rizzo made clear that the club is “not going to stop” trying to reach agreement until Rendon provides “a definitive decision” one way or another. There continues to be keen interest on both sides, Rizzo suggests, and he still believes “there’s a deal to be had.”

While the Nats’ top baseball decisionmaker understandably did not get into details, he did say that the team has “made very respectful, very market value offers.” Rendon’s true value in an extension scenario remains debatable. The recent deal between the Rockies and Nolan Arenado (seven years, $234MM) undoubtedly represents a key data point for both sides to consider. No doubt the Nats would also point Rendon’s agent, Scott Boras, to the much more modest deal he negotiated with the Red Sox for Xander Bogaerts. That these and other significant players elected to forego free agency is also a factor in projecting what Rendon might take down on the open market, where he’ll stand out as one of few premium players.

It’s obviously going to be harder now to convince Rendon not to test the open market. He has finally been tabbed for an All-Star game after an exceptional start to the year; no doubt his prominence will rise yet further as less attentive observers realize that the game’s quietest star is nearing free agency.

“It all comes down to what makes it work and what entices him to sign with the Nationals and not go through the free agent process,” said Rizzo. “And it’s gotta make sense for us also.”

Whether the sides can arrive at a number that suits both remains to be seen. But it doesn’t seem the Nationals have wavered in their desire to add another big salary to the books. The club has been on a tear of late, bouncing back from a messy start to climb back to within six games of the division pace. And the team’s core — Rendon aside — remains under contract for the foreseeable future.

By all indications, Rizzo is preparing to act as a buyer this summer. But if the club again ends up in a bit of a gray area, he won’t have as much flexibility to change course in August. Asked about how the new trade deadline rules will impact the market, Rizzo says he expects it will “keep[] more teams in the mix” and produce “more activity before the [July] 31st deadline.” Though he says it won’t much impact the Nats — “when we see opportunities we usually jump on them and take them” — Rizzo does note that the changed rules only “give you one bite at the apple.”

The underrating of Nationals third baseman Anthony Rendon has finally subsided a bit in 2019. The 29-year-old, owner of a 29.1 fWAR since his 2013 debut, finally made his first All-Star Game this season. All he had to do was hit .311/.398/.630 (158 wRC+) with 19 home runs in 299 plate appearances to earn a spot on this year’s National League roster.

Lack of All-Star nods aside, teams recognize the value of Rendon, who’s not far from reeling in a nine-figure contract. Aside from Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole, Rendon is hands down the majors’ preeminent player scheduled to reach the open market this winter. The Nationals would like to prevent Rendon from ever shopping his services around the game, of course, but it’s up in the air whether they’ll be able to stop the Scott Boras client. While both sides have expressed interest in continuing their partnership past this season, no agreement has materialized yet.

Now, four months before free agency, “there has been little to no progress” toward a long-term contract, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post reports. Asked about negotiations, Rendon told Dougherty they’re “out of my hands,” though he did suggest he’s still amenable to staying in D.C.

Back when the Nationals and Boras were discussing a Rendon deal a few months ago, the player’s camp used Astros second baseman Jose Altuve’s pact as a starting point, according to Dougherty. Altuve signed a a five-year, $151MM extension going into 2018, when he was a soon-to-be 28-year-old coming off an AL MVP- and World Series-winning season. He was also a five-time All-Star then. The Nationals didn’t place a similar value on the less decorated Rendon, per Dougherty. Unsurprisingly, as Dougherty notes, the seven-year, $234MM guarantee the Rockies gave their own standout third baseman, Nolan Arenado, entering this season didn’t do anything to bridge the gap between the Nationals and Rendon. However, should the two sides resume talks in earnest, Dougherty suggests Rendon’s side would likely push for an Arenado-esque deal.

Barring a massive change in course over the next few months, Rendon seems almost certain to become a free agent after the season. In the process, he’d likely follow in Bryce Harper’s footsteps as the second Nats superstar to leave in as many winters. The Nationals, even though they were treading water last summer, decided against parting with Harper before either of the summer trade deadlines. They ended up losing the bidding for Harper to the Phillies in the offseason and only getting a draft pick after the fourth round as compensation for the qualifying offer recipient.

As was the case a summer ago, the Nationals are hanging around the .500 mark as they decide how to proceeded with a key free agent. The club has surged since a nightmarish start, putting it at 42-41 and just a game and a half out of a playoff spot. Assuming the Nationals stay on this path, it’s hard to envision them selling Rendon for a package of young talent this summer. If Rendon does leave Washington in the coming months, it seems likely to occur in free agency, when the team could land better compensation for the eventual QO recipient’s departure than it did Harper’s. Should the Nationals stay under the $206MM luxury tax threshold through this season – which they’ve done by a couple million dollars to this point – they’ll get a pick after Competitive Balance Round B for Rendon’s exit.