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Checking In On Largest One-Year Deals: Pitchers

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Seven months after signing right-hander Matt Harvey to an $11MM guarantee, the Angels are moving on from the floundering former ace. By my count, Harvey’s one of eight pitchers to receive at least $5MM on a one-year contract since the winter. It’s an arbitrary amount, but as you’ll see below, most of the game’s other fairly expensive short-term hurlers also haven’t lived up to their paydays so far in 2019. To the Angels’ chagrin, Harvey’s not the lone free-agent signing of theirs on this list.

Dallas Keuchel, SP, Braves ($13MM):

  • Unlike the other members of this group, Keuchel was not a winter pickup for his team. He instead went without a club until early June, owing to a steep asking price and a qualifying offer hanging over his head, before accepting the Braves’ one-year offer. The former Cy Young winner with Houston has been a mixed bag in his first month in Atlanta, though it’s worth pointing out he didn’t have the benefit of a spring training. The 31-year-old southpaw has taken the ball six times for the Braves and notched a 3.58 ERA with a 2.87 BB/9 and a 57.7 percent groundball rate, all of which are appealing. Conversely, Keuchel’s 5.23 FIP and 5.26 K/9 through 37 2/3 innings may be cause for alarm.

Trevor Cahill, SP/RP, Angels ($9MM):

  • Cahill was a low-cost signing entering 2018 for the Athletics, who profited from the 110 effective innings the right-hander gave them as part of a patchwork rotation. The Angels expected something similar this season, but the Cahill addition has blown up in their faces thus far. Cahill was so disappointing as a member of the Halos’ starting staff that they moved him to a relief position several weeks back. Neither role has suited the 31-year-old in 2019, evidenced by his 6.56 ERA/6.20 FIP with 6.81 K/9 and 3.09 BB/9 across 70 innings.

Cody Allen, RP, Angels ($8.5MM):

  • Yet another regrettable investment for the Angels, Allen lost his place in the organization a month ago and then had to settle for a minor league contract with the Twins. Allen joined the Angels off a mediocre-at-best 2018 with the Indians, but he was an imposing late-game reliever in the preceding years. The Angels were banking on Allen revisiting his halcyon days. Instead, they got a 6.26 ERA/8.39 FIP over 23 innings from the righty. Allen did fan upward of 11 hitters per nine in that span, but he also walked almost eight, induced groundballs at a measly 19.7 percent clip, gave up nine home runs, and experienced a drop in velocity for the second straight season.

CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees ($8MM):

  • It was no surprise Sabathia and the Yankees stayed together last winter for the final season of the potential Hall of Famer’s career. The 38-year-old lefty has since repaid the Yankees with 82 innings of 4.06 ERA ball and 8.45 K/9 against 3.07 BB/9. Sabathia’s 5.29 FIP and 4.77 xFIP are much less encouraging, but it’s worth noting he also outpitched those metrics in the prior couple years after reinventing himself as a soft-contact specialist. While Sabathia’s average exit velocity against has gone up more than 2 mph since last year, per Statcast, he still ranks in the league’s 88th percentile in terms of hard-hit rate.

Derek Holland, SP/RP, Giants ($7MM):

  • The former Ranger and White Sox revived his career with the Giants last season after they took a flier on him on a minor league pact. That led the Giants to bring back Holland on a guaranteed deal, but the move hasn’t worked out. Holland began the season with seven starts and 32 innings of 6.75 ERA/6.44 FIP pitching, which forced the Giants to demote him to their bullpen in the first half of May. The 32-year-old has done better as a reliever since then, though he still hasn’t been particularly good. Through 33 frames, Holland has recorded a 4.09 ERA/5.03 FIP with 7.64 K/9 against 4.09 BB/9.

Trevor Rosenthal, RP, Nationals ($7MM):

  • Rosenthal’s similar to Allen as a former standout closer whose career has gone in the tank recently. The Rosenthal signing went so poorly for the Nationals that they released him toward the end of June. The flamethrowing Rosenthal was a stud at times for the Cardinals from 2012-17, but he underwent Tommy John surgery in the last of those seasons and sat out all of 2018. In his return to the majors with the Nationals this year, Rosenthal logged an unfathomable 22.74 ERA with 21.32 BB/9 in 6 1/3 innings. He also spent more than a month on the injured list with a viral infection while on Washington’s roster. After the Nats cut Rosenthal, he caught on with the Tigers on a minor league contract. The 29-year-old is now back in the majors with rebuilding Detroit, having tossed a pair of scoreless innings and posted two strikeouts and two walks as a Tiger.

Tyson Ross, SP, Tigers ($5.75MM):

  • As has often been the case during Ross’ career, an injury – an elbow issue this time – has largely kept him from contributing. Ross hasn’t taken a major league mound since May 10, nor does it look as if a return is imminent. Before landing on the shelf, Ross, 32, put up an ugly 6.11 ERA/5.99 FIP with 6.37 K/9 and 4.58 BB/9 in 35 1/3 frames. Ross was serviceable last year between San Diego and St. Louis, however, so the Tigers were likely hoping he’d perform similarly over this season’s first few months and turn into a trade chip around the July 31 deadline. That dream died weeks ago.

Mike Rizzo On Nationals’ Deadline Plans

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Nationals president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo took to the airwaves to discuss his organization’s approach to the upcoming trade deadline. The audio from MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM is available on Twitter.

Unsurprisingly, the long-time D.C. baseball ops leader says that the front office will work for the rest of the month to “try and improve our club.” Any other approach would’ve been quite a surprise given that the Nats entered the season with expectations of contending and have scraped and clawed their way into that status after a brutal start.

The Nationals are sitting in Wild Card position and 5.5 games back of the Braves entering play today. While the postseason position is promising, there’s still a lot of work to do — especially in the division.

Rizzo did seem to suggest that the club won’t be especially motivated to pay up for pure rental players. As he put it:

“We’d like to improve ourselves this year but also for the future. When you’re giving away the assets that you have to give away at the trade deadline, you kind of like to get a little bit of control in the players that you acquire.”

It’s doubtful the club will scratch targets off its list entirely because they are slated to reach free agency at season’s end. But it appears the Washington organization will be disinclined to part with its best farm pieces for short-term pieces.

In terms of need, Rizzo unsurprisingly anointed the bullpen as the area most in need of improvement. “Our priority is going to be on pitching,” he said, “probably bullpen arms that could give us some veteran leadership and possibly shorten the game up for our starting rotation.” The Nationals have already been linked to relievers Mychal Givens (link) and Jake Diekman (link). It seems likely they’ll come away from the trade period with multiple new pen pieces.

Washington’s Yan Gomes Acquisition Isn’t Working Out

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The Nationals were one of eight teams whose catchers posted a sub-replacement fWAR in 2018, which led general manager Mike Rizzo to make over the position entering this season. Rizzo said goodbye to Matt Wieters and Pedro Severino, the Nationals’ primary catchers last year, and brought in Kurt Suzuki in free agency and Yan Gomes in a trade with the Indians. Both pickups looked fine on paper, and Suzuki has played pretty well through the first four months into the season. Gomes, on the other hand, has been stunningly bad.

Set to turn 32 this Friday, Gomes was a valuable backstop in Cleveland, where he totaled 13.7 fWAR from 2013-18. But Gomes has taken massive steps back in D.C., where he has accounted for minus-0.2 fWAR and mustered an unsightly .202/.298/.290 batting line with three home runs in 208 plate appearances. Gomes’ 54 wRC+ is barely more than half the 101 he managed last year with the Tribe, and his .087 ISO ranks ninth worst in the majors among 262 hitters who have amassed at least 200 trips to the plate.

To make matters worse, Gomes hasn’t been the same caliber of defender he was just a year ago, when he ranked as one of Baseball Prospectus’ premier catchers (including in the pitch-framing department). Although Gomes has thrown out a strong 36 percent of would-be base stealers – up from 29 percent in 2018 – BP regards the Washington version as a below-average backstop and a subpar framer. Meanwhile, Statcast only puts Gomes’ in the majors’ 36th percentile when it comes to stealing strikes.

Statcast also thinks little of Gomes’ offense, placing him in the 26th percentile or worse in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity, expected slugging percentage, expected batting average and expected weighted-on base average. There isn’t a huge difference between Gomes’ xwOBA (.276) and real wOBA (.261), which suggests a major rebound isn’t coming at the plate. FanGraphs offers even more bad news, noting Gomes’ hard-hit percentage (25.2) has dropped exactly 18 points since 2018 and ranks third last in the majors. Gomes is hitting far more ground balls and far fewer line drives than he did a year ago, which predictably hasn’t been a recipe for success.

If you’re holding out for encouraging signs, there are a few, starting with Gomes’ K/BB ratio. He has struck out in 23.1 percent of plate appearances, down from 25.8 percent or more in each of the previous four seasons. Moreover, Gomes’ walk rate, 10.1 percent, is a career best and almost doubles his lifetime mark (5.4). He’s also swinging and missing less than he has in recent years and making much more out-of-zone contact than ever. And Gomes’ .258 batting average on balls in play, a 37-point decrease from his lifetime figure (.295), indicates he has dealt with some poor fortune this year.

Even if Gomes’ BABIP does normalize as the season goes on, odds are the Nationals aren’t going to get the 2018 All-Star version they wanted. To this point, Gomes has surprisingly been a less valuable player than right-hander Jefry Rodriguez, whom the Nationals traded to the Indians for him and who hasn’t exactly been a world-beater in his own right. The Nats also parted with outfield prospect Daniel Johnson, a 24-year-old who has notched quality numbers in his first Triple-A action this season, and young infielder Andruw Monasterio.

Waving goodbye to Rodriguez, Johnson and Monasterio to acquire Gomes was an understandable decision for Washington at the time, but the move hasn’t yielded dividends thus far for the playoff hopefuls. Unless Gomes revisits his prior form during the final couple months of the campaign, the Nationals may buy him out in the offseason in lieu of exercising a $9MM club option for 2020.

Mychal Givens Drawing Trade Interest

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The Orioles made their first of what will likely be several trades over the weekend when they dealt Andrew Cashner to the Red Sox, and Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports that closer Mychal Givens is drawing interest and is “definitely” available — a departure from recent seasons under previous front office management. The Phillies and Nationals, in particular, have interest in Givens, per the report. Obviously, a deal with the Nats would be difficult to hammer out when the two clubs continue to be embroiled in the ongoing dispute over MASN television rights fees.

Givens’ 2019 numbers are pedestrian at first glance. The right-hander’s 4.50 ERA is wholly unremarkable, and even last season’s 3.99 mark hardly generates excitement. Front offices aren’t going to put much stock in earned run average when evaluating a pitcher, however, particularly amid 2019’s home run deluge. Givens entered the season having averaged well less than a homer per nine innings pitched in his career, but he’s served up eight long balls in 36 innings in 2019. That’s led to a spike in his ERA, but it’s of some note that nine of the 18 earned runs he’s given up this year were surrendered in a combined two outings (a four-run meltdown in June and a five-run outing in May — both fueled by homers).

Looking beyond his ho-hum ERA, Givens offers a fair bit of intrigue. First and foremost, this year’s 12.8 K/9 and 34.5 percent overall strikeout rate are easily career-best marks. He’s also sporting a career-high 15.3 percent swinging-strike rate and 32 percent opponents’ chase rate on out-of-zone pitches. Givens’ 95.1 mph average fastball is right in line with his career rate, and the spin rate on that heater checks into the 77th percentile among MLB hurlers.

A rudimentary look at Givens’ splits reveals what many would expect to be the case: his home park hasn’t done him any favors. Six of the eight long ball surrendered by Givens have come at Camden Yards. On the road, opponents have managed an awful .185/.286/.315 output against him.

Digging a bit deeper, opposing hitters have posted a .350 weighted on-base average (wOBA) against Givens, but that’s almost entirely a function of the aforementioned home run issues. He’s yielded just a .217 batting average and a .304 on-base percentage thus far on the season. Based on the quality of contact he’s allowed, Statcast projects an expected wOBA of just .297 — significantly lower than the league average of .324 (excluding pitchers).

With any trade candidate, the player’s contract plays a sizable role in driving trade interest. In the case of Givens, the Orioles are in an advantageous position. He’s earning a minimal $2.15MM in 2019 and is controlled via arbitration through the 2021 season. With only about $890K of this season’s salary yet to be paid out, Givens is affordable for any contender and can also be viewed as a relatively long-term option, both of which should fuel interest between now and July 31. He may not be as appealing a trade chip as teammate Trey Mancini, but Givens is the highest-valued asset the Orioles seem decidedly likely to move.

Nationals “Considering” Jake Diekman

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The Nationals, in clear need of bullpen help as the July 31 trade deadline nears, are “considering” Royals left-hander Jake Diekman and other relievers, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reports (video link).

The 32-year-old Diekman’s an obvious trade candidate for the rebuilding Royals, who likely signed him to a $2.75MM guarantee last winter with the intention of flipping him during the season. However, Diekman’s production in Kansas City has been a mixed bag to this point.

On one hand, Diekman has logged a horrid 5.06 ERA with a similarly unappealing 5.3 BB/9 over 37 1/3 innings. On the other, the former Phillie, Ranger and Diamondback has continued to pump 95-plus mph heat, generated more swinging strikes than ever (16.4 percent), posted a 3.68 FIP/3.95 xFIP, amassed 13.02 strikeouts per nine and recorded the majors’ eighth-best infield fly rate for relievers (20 percent). Diekman has also been tough on lefties, whom he has held to a .278 weighted on-base average, while somewhat keeping righties in check (.315 wOBA).

Diekman, who’s owed less than $1MM through season’s end, would be a reasonably priced addition for a wild card-leading Washington team trying to stay below the luxury tax. The club’s less than $3MM under the $206MM line as of now, according to Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, so it may not be in position to make any expensive splashes before the deadline. Having exceeded the threshold in each of the previous two years, the Nationals will have to pay a 50 percent tax for every dollar they go over it this season.

Financial concerns aside, this has been an adverse campaign for Washington’s bullpen, which ranks last in the NL in ERA (6.02). 20th in K/BB ratio (2.26) and 21st in FIP (5.55). For the most part, the Nationals have struggled to find answers in front of closer Sean Doolittle. The recently signed Fernando Rodney has joined Wander Suero, Tony Sipp, Matt Grace and Javy Guerra in performing decently of late, thus helping the team charge up the standings, but its relief corps is still crying out for fortification.

Should the Nationals turn to Diekman, it’s possible he’d become more than a late-2019 solution for the club. Diekman’s potentially controllable through next season on a $5.75MM mutual option, though his employer could decline it in favor of a $750K buyout.

Nationals Place Max Scherzer On Injured List

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The Nationals have placed ace Max Scherzer on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to July 10) with a mid-back strain. They recalled catcher Spencer Kieboom from Double-A Harrisburg to take Scherzer’s 25-man spot.

Scherzer last pitched a week ago, when he turned in a seven-inning, four-hit performance with 11 strikeouts against no walks in a win over the Royals. It was another in a long line of gems for Scherzer, a three-time Cy Young winner who may be on his way to his fourth such award this season. The 34-year-old has logged a magnificent 2.30 ERA/2.00 FIP with a jaw-dropping 12.6 K/9 against 1.6 BB/9 across 129 1/3 innings so far in 2019. He’s likely the MVP of a Nationals team that has climbed out of the basement over the past several weeks to grab a 1 1/2-game hold over the NL’s top wild-card spot.

Considering Washington’s place in the standings, it obviously can’t afford to go without Scherzer for longer than a minimum IL stint. Scherzer said Friday his injury isn’t a “long-term” one, per Todd Dybas of NBC Sports Washington. As of now, though, the Hall of Fame-caliber workhorse is in line for a rare stay on the shelf. He’ll be out until at least July 20.

Max Scherzer Pushes Back Start

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Nationals ace Max Scherzer will push back his first post-All-Star-break start from Sunday to Tuesday due to back tightness, per Sam Fortier of the Washington Post. At 5.5 fWAR on the season, Scherzer trails only Mike Trout (6.4 fWAR) and Cody Bellinger (5.7 fWAR) while leading all pitchers by a fairly significant margin (Lance Lynn is next at 4.4 fWAR, while Charlie Morton, Gerrit Cole, and Nats-teammate Stephen Strasburg follow with 3.4 fWAR). Scherzer has been beyond mortal over the last two months, winning seven consecutive starts over which he sports a 0.87 ERA while limiting opposing hitters to .157/.196/.249 at the dish (his 79:6 K:BB ratio isn’t half bad either). Needless to say, Mad Max is an essential cog in the Nationals revamped playoff hopes, no less so due to their lack of organizational depth. The scheduling adjustment should give Scherzer the extra rest he needs, as he and the team anticipate he will be ready by Tuesday’s opener at Baltimore. Let’s check in on the health of a couple other star hurlers…

Nationals Place Jonny Venters On 10-Day IL

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The Nationals announced today that they’ve placed lefty Jonny Venters on the 10-day injured list. He has been diagnosed with a left shoulder strain. That’s an injury that could conceivably be quite concerning, though there’s no indication to this point of the severity.

Righty Kyle McGowin was promoted to take the open roster spot. He had been shipped out on optional assignment to make room for Venters when the veteran’s contract was selected recently.

The Nats continue to churn through arms as they try to keep the bullpen afloat. The club received three appearances from Venters, over which he registered five strikeouts but also gave up three runs (two earned) on three hits and two walks. McGowin, 27, has a shiny 11:2 K/BB ratio in his ten MLB innings this year but has also been tagged for 11 earned runs and three long ball in that brief span.

Given their recent performances, neither Venters nor McGowin seem like optimal solutions for the D.C. club. But the organization’s other options can be classed similarly. Lefty Dan Jennings is stashed at Triple-A — where he was sent after a rough showing with the big club. The team just activated righty Kyle Barraclough, but promptly optioned him to iron out his season-long struggles. Just-signed veteran Brad Boxberger has a solid history in the majors, but was bad enough this year that the Royals sent him packing despite already being on the hook for his salary.

While the Nationals will hope their current pen mix is sufficient to get them through the next several weeks, the front office is assuredly working hard to line up new options. The club could unquestionably stand to add multiple arms to its relief corps, much as it did two summers back (but with an even more stringent need). It’ll be interesting to see how the deadline period unfolds.

Sean Doolittle On Trade Uncertainty

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  • Trades and trade rumors come with the territory for any baseball player, particularly at this time of year.  This being said, there’s an obvious personal toll that comes with knowing one could soon to be moved to another team on another city, and it’s naturally hard to entirely block out all of the speculation.  “You see a couple things and that’s all it takes for your brain to run wild a little bit with some of that stuff,” Nationals closer Sean Doolittle told NBC Sports Washington’s Todd Dybas about some early-season rumors buzzing that the Nats could start trading Doolittle and other veterans if the team continued to struggle.  Doolittle is no stranger to midseason deals, of course, as it was almost exactly two years ago that he came to D.C. as part of a very notable five-player trade with the Athletics.  Needless to say, the Nats’ re-emergence back into the postseason race has ended talk of the club being deadline sellers, which is good news for Doolittle given how he and his wife quickly grew to love being part of the Nationals family.  “I will say it’s tough because you don’t have control over [a trade],” Doolittle said. “For some people, it might be easy to say, ’Hey, I’m not going to think about it because I can’t control it.’ At the same time, that’s why it’s a little disconcerting, is you don’t have control over it. After going through it once before, it’s not as scary as maybe it was. I don’t know. I really want to be here. I like it here.”

Nationals Activate, Option Kyle Barraclough

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The Nationals announced today that they have activated righty Kyle Barraclough from the 10-day injured list. Rather than bringing him back onto the MLB roster, the club optioned Barraclough to Double-A.

Barraclough had been sidelined since mid-June with nerve irritation in his right forearm. The 29-year-old, acquired over the offseason, is earning $1.725MM this year in his first season of arbitration eligibility.

Before hitting the shelf, Barraclough had struggled to a 6.39 ERA in 25 1/3 innings. Despite a solid 30:12 K/BB ratio, the righty reliever was touched for seven long balls. Statcast has in the past credited Barraclough with maintaining low hard-hit rates, helping to offset his typically hefty walk numbers. But opposing hitters have jumped him for 43.6% hard contact this year as he has continued to shed fastball velocity (from an early-career peak of 96.6 mph down to 93.7 mph in 2019).

The Nats may well need to call upon Barraclough again later in the season, but they’ll first see if they can find more consistency from other arms. The D.C. relief unit still lacks much in the way of stability, though it is no longer performing at historically awful rates after an unbelievably poor start to the year.

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